Waiting For the Tucker Shoe to Drop

While Josh Bell, Dustin May, Ha-Seong Kim, Lane Thomas, Adolis Garcia, Steven Matz, and Christopher Morel signed, eight of the top ten free agents are still not signed.  The two that signed were a SP (Dylan Cease) and DH (Kyle Schwarber).  Schwarber stayed with Philadelphia, so only Cease joined a new team (Toronto) from the top 10.

Munetaka Murakami must sign by Monday or go back to Japan.

That leaves OF Kyle Tucker, SS Bo Bichette, 3B Alex Bregman, , RHSP Framber Valdez, RHSP, Tatsuya Imai, OF Cody Bellinger, LHSP Ranger Suarez.

My guess is that Bellinger will not sign until Tucker signs to set the market.  Scott Boras has no problem setting the market with a clear leader, and Dylan Cease was considered the best SP free agent.  Boras is Bellinger’s agent, and unless someone gives him an offer too good to turn down, I cannot see Boras getting him signed.  I am sure that Bellinger has his market poised to pounce once Tucker is signed, and a clear dollar and term comes into focus. Belli has many more teams that are in consideration over Tucker.

I think most teams are backing off the exorbitant terms that were reported early on in the process for Tucker.  He may still sign the largest contract of the year, but it will not be $467MM that some were predicting.    The interested teams are dwindling.  Some have speculated that only 2 remain (Toronto and LAD).  I cannot believe the Mets or Yankees will not ask to be contacted for a final offer.  Although I do believe that NYY wants to re-sign Belli.

Does Tucker need to get his ego in check and make a decision?  He is not worth Mookie $$$.  He is not worth Fernando Tatis Jr. $$$.  Toronto has the $$$ to sign Tucker, but I am not sure they want to out 10 years.  It is the years that are scaring teams more today than in prior years, and more so than the $$$.

Harrison Bader is probably in the same dilemma that Belli is, but not for the same reasons.  Bader’s market is probably NYY, NYM, Philadelphia, and LAD, with KC and SFG still kicking the tires.

When Philadelphia signed Adolis Garcia for $10MM, that lessened the odds of them re-signing Bader, but not completely.  Phillies now have 2 RF tied to $30MM with questionable value: Garcia and Nick Castellanos.  If they can unload Castellanos, Bader becomes a legit target for them.  The Phillies have the lineup to hide 22 year old CF Justin Crawford, a very top prospect for Philadelphia (#3 Phillies, #54 overall).

Philadelphia is also trying to upgrade 3B, so their focus may be there rather than CF.

IMO, NYY covets Bellinger more than Bader. NYY has Trent Grisham in CF, but if they sign Bader, they can move Grisham to LF to replace or platoon with Jasson Dominguez.

I have no clue what NYM is doing.  I thought they were setting up for a Kyle Tucker signing, but they seem to be rowing without a coxswain.

There is also the lack of movement for significant infielders.  IMO, Toronto is waiting on learning if they are the Tucker sweepstakes winner.  If Tucker signs with Toronto, the Blue Jays will shift their focus to Bichette.  Bichette has indicated a willingness to move off SS, which opens up the number of his suitors.

Atlanta could be in play with Bichette.  Atlanta has been looking to replace Ozzie Albies at 2B for a few seasons now.  Boston is another serious contender for Bichette. However, Boston is rumored to be negotiating with all infielder FAs.

Alex Bregman is also coveted by Boston.  There is mutual interest there.  Detroit is another team very much involved in the Bregman negotiations.  The Cubs are pushing hard to sign Bregman.  They lost Tucker and they are not convinced that Matt Shaw is the 3B they need to contend.

While relief pitchers are flying off the boards, there is a noticeable lull in signing starting pitching FAs.  Dylan Cease is signed and at a hefty $210MM 7 year deal with deferrals, dropping the present value of the contract to $187.25MM.  Once he was signed, it is unclear as to why the next group of FA starting pitchers are still in the wings.  Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, and Zac Gallen comprise the next tier.  IMO, years might be an obstacle for these pitchers.

There are two catchers in the top 50: JT Realmuto and Victor Caratini.  The Mariners just signed their backup to Cal Raleigh, Andrew Knizner.  There is not much else out there.

The Dodgers have re-signed Miggy Ro and have signed Edwin Díaz.  A very unheralded MiLB signing that could pay dividends is RHP Nick Frasso.  Frasso had a tough year coming back from shoulder surgery, but could return to that top prospect level after a year of getting that shoulder working again.  He is still listed as a starter, but he was being moved to the bullpen late last year, and that figures to be where he will be placed this year at OKC.  Shoulder surgeries quite often take a long time to recover, which makes Gavin Stone’s return nebulous.

So we wait to see when the next shoe drops.  Once Tucker signs, I think you will see a lot more movement.  Murakami should be signed before the end of the weekend.  After that ????