What’s In A Trade

A couple days back Badger commented: “It has been suggested in a few places that July bidding will be higher than January bidding.”

Two different types of bidding.  As 4-Gens commented, trades in the Winter center on MLB talent, or at the very least MLB ready elite prospect talent.  Outside of Emmet Sheehan and Dalton Rushing, the Dodgers do not have that.  Very rarely do you see multiple AA, A, and rookie league prospects packaged for a top MLB player in the Winter.  Few teams are going to admit they are not at least going into the season with the thought of contending.

At the deadline, the opposite is true.  Very rarely do you see top scale MLB for top scale MLB players exchanged, but you do see the multiple prospect packages for a difference making MLB player from a team out of the playoff picture.

Of course this is not absolute.  Just this year, as Duke brought up, Tampa Bay traded RHSP Shane Baz for four prospects and a competitive balance pick.  Duke referred to the prospects as non-elite, and I guess that is true, but all four are top 20 prospects in Tampa Bay’s system.  So define elite?

Tampa Bay is in a rebuild process and prospects have more value than a couple low level MLB players to the Rays.

On Wednesday, the Marlins traded RHSP Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for their #2 prospect (OF Owen Caissie), their #16 prospect (SS Christian Hernandez), and an 18 year old lottery ticket from the Dominican Republic.  Cabrera is talented, but has a very gimpy elbow that should have the Cubs concerned.  Caissie is the player that Miami wanted, and they had pitching to spare.  This could backfire on the Cubs as Caissie was slated to be the RF this year for them. Now who goes out there?  I suppose Seiya Suzuki???  Caissie now gives Miami a plus OF with Kyle Stowers in LF, Jakob Marsee in CF, and Caissie in RF.  That could be a better OF than LAD.  Plus Caissie is a MLB ready OF that falls within my definition of winter trade candidates.

Bottom line is that just because the Dodgers may want a certain player, there has to be a match from the other team.  What if that team does not need someone from where the Dodgers’ strength lies?

How eager are the Dodgers to trade Dalton Rushing?  Some have suggested that AF’s reluctance to trade Rushing was likely the stumbling block as to why the Dodgers did not acquire Steven Kwan last year.

Rushing has not yet established himself as a MLB starting catcher, so his value is probably diminished a bit at this time.  I also believe that when Ben Rortvedt was considered the backup catcher to Will Smith in the playoffs, that also potentially put a dent into his trade value.  His 37.4% K rate is probably not all that enticing either.

I do believe that Rushing can be a good MLB catcher, but it has to be the right team that will need him.  Looking at teams with potential OF help to trade to the Dodgers, the names most often mentioned as possible trades are Steven Kwan, Jarren Duran, Byron Buxton, and Brendan Donovan.

Cleveland’s GM, Mike Chernoff has already said that Kwan is not likely to be traded.  They need OF, and trading their best is not in their best interests unless they get an overpay.  AF does not do overpays.  I know Duke does not believe that it has to be an overpay, but we will just have to agree to disagree.

With Carlos Narváez as their starting catcher, Boston does not need Rushing.  Minnesota is probably happy with Ryan Jeffers as their regular catcher.  Rushing would go to both teams as the backup.  The teams are not going to trade Duran or Buxton with Rushing as the headliner.  Would any of you trade Andy Pages for a backup catcher?

Cleveland could use an upgrade over Bo Naylor and St. Louis could use an upgrade over Pedro Pagés.  Is Rushing an upgrade?

As stated above, Cleveland is not looking to trade Kwan.  Besides Kwan, Cleveland is starting 2 rookies in CF and RF.  Rushing alone is not going to get Kwan.  How much more would you be willing to add to get Kwan?  Cleveland is going to want an overpay.  Cleveland does not need swing pitchers or multiple innings relievers. Cleveland’s #6 SP is Parker Messick and had a good start to his MLB career last year with a quality 39.2 IP and 2.72 ERA and 2.92 FIP.  Ryan Ward is not on the Guardians’ shopping list, nor is Alex Call.

Apparently the asking price for 2 years of Brendan Donovan is very high, and that is why teams may be reluctant to trade for him. The Cardinals are clearly in a rebuild, and like Tampa Bay, prospects may be what is requested.  I doubt that AF would trade Rushing for two years of Donovan.  But prospects still in AA, A+, and A?  If AF was willing to meet St. Louis’ price it would already be done by now.  As STB has reminded us, Gomes has told us we need to be patient.  If Tucker, Bichette, Bellinger, and Bader all sign elsewhere, AF/BG could revisit Donovan.

That leaves Emmet Sheehan as the one LAD player who can bring back a difference making OF in a trade.  Upon his return from TJ surgery, Sheehan pitched 15 games (12 as a starter), and compiled 73.1 IP with a 2.82 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 0.968 WHIP, and 4.05 K/BB ratio.  As a starter he had a 5.69 K/BB ratio.

Sheehan would be a mid-rotation SP for most teams, and a top two for many.  He would be the #1 for St. Louis.  However, for LAD he is a #5/#6 SP.  The Dodgers are not about to trade 4 years of Sheehan for 2 years of Donovan.

Sheehan for Kwan?  LAD says no. Sheehan for Duran?  It would be painful, but I could see that.  Sheehan for Buxton?  The Dodgers are not trading that level of an asset for an oft injured Buxton, IMO.  Last year was the first time Buxton had 400+ PA since 2017.   Plus last year, per Fangraphs’ DRS metric, Pages was a better defensive CF.  Take that for whatever you think it is worth.

In summary, IMO, unless St. Louis comes down on the asking price for Donovan, the Dodgers are going to have to buy their big bat (Tucker, Bichette, or Bellinger, or a defensive CF (Bader), and save their prospect capital for the deadline.