Watford said that I sounded disappointed and a little surprised with respect to the Kyle Tucker signing. I am disappointed. Of course I am a Dodgers fan, but without MLB there are no Dodgers. Let me be clear, I do think Tucker’s signing with LAD benefits the Dodgers. Going into the season, the Dodgers are clearly better with Tucker than without him. My position is that this is not good for MLB.
We just saw how another high revenue market team paid an obscene amount (IMO) to Bo Bichette, 3 years at $126MM. $42MM AAV??? STB thought that this could be a panic move. I think it is more that Steve Cohen just reemphasized to everyone that he has deep pockets and he can play this game too. We now know that NYM is going to battle NYY for Cody Bellinger. I think it is entirely possible that Cohen signs Framber Valdez as well.
For those who are happy with Tucker signing with LAD, IMO that is a rather myopic point of view. At this point only the Dodgers and Mets should be bidding for Tarik Skubal next year. IF there is a next year. There are now more than enough MLB owners who do not agree with how LAD and NYM are operating, and they will demand a salary cap. I agree there has to be a salary floor, but the leading mouthpiece for MLB (Rob Manfred) says that the industry needs both a salary cap and floor. In his view, he believes the players will accept a salary cap as long as there is a “reasonable” floor. I believe this stance is also myopic.
Don’t think a lockout will happen? MLB lost a WS in 1994 due to a player’s strike because the two sides would not agree to a salary cap. The strike went on from August 12, 1994, to April 2, 1995. Most teams only played 113 games in 1994 and all had a full 144 game schedule in 1995.
The difference between the two sides (MLB and MLBPA) on a salary cap looks to be a deep canyon at this time. I do not think that the divide has ever been larger on the salary cap issue by itself. IMO, MLB and MLBPA is headed for a long and protracted lockout.
Bruce Meyer is the lead negotiator for MLBPA and he is more in the line of a hard-nosed Donald Fehr and Marvin Miller. Fehr was Miller’s legal counsel and would later become head of MLBPA who held the players strong all the way through the 1994-1995 strike, and did not allow for a salary cap. That’s Bruce Meyer. A salary cap is a non-starter.
There is a also a 38-member executive board of players, made up of eight elected, high-ranking subcommittee members, including Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, plus veterans Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter) and one representative from each team. Can you see Skubal and Skenes voting to allow a salary cap? Cronenworth? He would like nothing more than to stick it to the Dodgers. Semien is the poster boy for the overpaid player in FA.
Not to be outdone, Dan Halem is the assistant MLB commissioner and will be their lead negotiator. MLB’s labor policy committee is headed by Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort, who is joined by Hal Steinbrenner (New York Yankees), John Sherman (Kansas City Royals), Jerry Reinsdorf (Chicago White Sox), Ray Davis (Texas Rangers), Jim Pohlad (Minnesota Twins) and Mark Attanasio (Milwaukee Brewers). Four of those owners represent the bottom 12 teams in terms of revenue.
Only Steinbrenner represents large revenue teams, and he is not a hawk in that realm any longer. If he were, Bellinger would be a NYY closer to his 7 year $258MM salary demands by now. This MLB labor policy does not include such low revenue teams like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami, the A’s, Tampa Bay, or Cincinnati.
Cassidy wrote that a healthy Tucker will put up huge numbers. I am not sure what his definition of huge is. After 78 games played in 2024 (70 as RF), in 2025 he only played 115 games in RF and had 19 as a DH. He had a calf injury that diminished one of his better tools, his speed. He had a -1 DRS and -2 OAA in RF. He hasn’t been a very good OF since 2022, when he compiled a 15 DRS and 4 OAA. His OPS last year was .841. Shohei – 1.041 OPS, Will Smith – .901 OPS, Freddie – .865 OPS, Max – .846 OPS.
To answer Patch specifically, I agree that WAR is an arbitrary metric, but one that most teams seem to use in their player evaluations. It is an arbitrary metric used to compare players. Even major publications differ on how WAR should be calculated. Every organization has their own methodology for determining a player’s worth. But there is a metric that is used. call it whatever you want, but there is a comparative metric used.
That being said, Mookie has exceeded 5.8 fWAR five times with a high of 10.2. He has a 62.6 career fWAR. The present value of his heavily deferred contract at signing was $306MM. He has “earned “ $223.7MM in value since signing with the Dodgers. This will prove to be a well justified contract.
Freddie has 4 years with above 5.0 fWAR. He has already paid for his 6 year $166MM ($148.2MM present value) contract. He has a value of $178.6MM over his first 4 years with LAD.
Will Smith is well on his way to justifying his $140MM 10 year contract ($122MM present value). After only 2 of the 10 years, he has accumulated $54MM in value.
Since Max Muncy has been a Dodger, he has been paid $64.62MM, while he has accumulated a fWAR value of $186.1MM. For 8 years, Max has earned just $7.51MM over what Tucker’s AAV will be in 2026. Tucker’s signing bonus is basically equal to what Max has made as a Dodger since 2018.
There is no reason to put up Shohei’s numbers.
Tucker has never reached a 5 fWAR in his career. If Tucker averages 4.5 fWAR over the next 4 years, his fWAR value would be $144MM. The present value of Tucker’s contract is $228.4MM. That is $84.4MM upside down. If Patch has a better metric than WAR to compare and contrast players, that’s good for him. Until he publishes that metric, I will continue to use WAR as a means to compare the overall value of players.
And yes I believe in the free market to determine where a player may want to sign. The Dodgers have every right to offer a 4 year $240MM deal and Tucker has every right to accept it. Regardless if his play measures up to that contract. Free agents have free will as do the teams signing the FA.
As a Dodgers fan, Tucker does make the team better for 2026, and I hope he has a good year and wins the MVP. That would necessarily give the Dodgers a great year. But this is not good for MLB. I cannot foresee any way that MLB will start on time next year, and I would not be surprised if a very significant part of the season is washed away with a lockout. How many fans come back after a long lockout?
Let’s say that MLBPA agrees to a salary cap. What will that mean for the Dodgers? Will they be forced to get under the cap in 1,2, or 3 years? Will they be precluded from adding any more FA or extensions until they get under the cap? Will the luxury tax be even greater?
OTOH, I am not convinced that other teams are willing to fairly trade with the Dodgers, and this is Mark Walter (through AF/BG) giving a 
to the rest of MLB. If that is the case, then I agree with the signing. This is such an outrageous contract, that it has to be the LAD management response, right? It makes no baseball or business sense.
Regardless of the reasoning, it does not look good for MLB in 2027, and that is my concern.
I do think that one of the main reasons we gave him such a contract is that the Dodgers believe they won’t have a chance to do this again, whenever the new bargaining agreement kicks in.
So may as well go big now, get grandfathered in to the new agreement, and play by those rules after.
I agree with this and I applaud AF’s near-maniacal insistence on spending money rather than trading prospects.
AF probably has a sense of what next year will bring therefor preparing for it. Whatever that means his group probably has as much insight as anybody.
if the Dodgers don’t go for free agents how do they compete for the series?
They choose last in the draft, they are penalized for spending, revenue sharing, hard to find trading partners because AF has fleeced them. International money reduced.
if they put a salary cap and raise the floor on spending they need to equalize the draft somehow so everyone has a chance. The Dodgers are penalized because they have the best run organization in the business. They should be rewarded for that and they have by winning. Give the Dodgers an even playing field and let the chips fall where they may.
They also really really want the threepeat. Signing Tucker makes it that much more reasonable.
I said if healthy Tucker will put up numbers better than everyone but Ohtani. .900 OPS and more than a 5 fWAR or better. There’s much less pressure on Tucker with the Dodgers and I think he’ll shine. We’ll see
I’m in your camp Cassidy, many people are looking at his last two years as decline, they were injury seasons. Tucker was putting up very good numbers until he hit the ball off of his leg in 2024, and last years broken finger did the trick on the 2025 numbers.
finally found my “h” it was hiding for a while😀
Last year the Dodgers put together a Super Team that some said would win 120 games. Of course they didn’t. And now they’ve put together a better team that some will say should win 120 games. They won’t. They’ll win enough to take the Division again, 98 should do it rather easily, while they rest their starters for October. Tucker has had some injuries the last two years. I see another 4.5 WAR year with an OPS in the mid .800’s, but he will be rested and ready to be a force in the postseason.
Reading comments from fans of other teams there’s a lot of clamoring for a cap. I just don’t see the players caving on that issue. Right behind calls for a cap is deferrals and how they are accounted for payroll purposes. The biggest complaint is Ohtani being counted as 46 million towards the CBT they feel his contract should count as 70 million a year for the CBT. Basically they think the Dodgers are skirting the rules. Listening to MLB radio on Sirius the fans want a cap but the talking heads mostly think the Dodgers are good for the game and are bringing eyes and money to the game.
It’s funny how in the course of 2 seasons the Dodgers have gone from being chokers and only winning one real championship since 1965. To being the bully on the block and ruining baseball.
MLB is more popular now than it has been in a while, they got fantastic WS ratings.
Just read this:
“Winning the World Series, particularly the 2024 and 2025 titles, has cemented the Los Angeles Dodgers as one of the most valuable sports franchises in the world, with their valuation rising from $5.45 billion in 2024 to $7.7 billion in 2025.” And it no doubt has gone up again. MLB Attendance was at an all time high in 2025. So are ad revenues all over the league. Luxury taxes go to fund retirement accounts (for millionaires) and to revenue sharing.
I was an education major so what do I know about finance but appears to me it’s raining money all over Major League Baseball.
And here’s something else that makes no sense to me, the A’s franchise, last in about every measurable MLB measure when measuring measures claimed a net loss of $23 million in ‘24 but the value of the franchise increased from $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion. Maybe Jeff can explain that one.
And another thing, it’s been suggested for years that MLB, the only major sport without a salary hard cap, needs one. Most owners want one. (good luck with that) Would a salary cap be good for baseball? If so, isn’t what the Dodgers and Mets are doing, which appears to be forcing the implementation of a cap, be good for baseball?
The Dodgers aren’t doing anything illegal and they owe nothing to anyone but their fans. As a fan I’m not about to complain about them doing whatever it is they feel they need to do win more championships, championships that add more value to their franchise brand. They needed a slugging outfielder and they outbid everyone to get the one they wanted. And WAR apparently isn’t has nothing to do with it. Helping to win another championship will more than pay that inflated salary.
It’s good to be a Dodger fan. And apparently the Dodgers are helping everyone in baseball get richer, you’re welcome, so it’s good for them too.
100%
I hope Bellinger signs with the Blue Jays, and the Yankees are left out in the cold.
Toronto gets Belly, and they are still one of the best teams in the AL.
Saw an interesting report from spottrac Dodgers overall payout with penalties last year $586mil. Dodgers overall payout for 2026 as the team stands right now is $575 mil.
I agree with Jeff that this signing is really not good for MLB as a whole, but it is great for the teams’ fans. A threepeat would be nice, but there are always the unknown’s that pop up, especially injuries. And I can remember back when a spring training injury to Pedro Guererro derailed a lot of plans. I am at the age where even as much as I love the game, another strike, or work stoppage would just be a little bit too much to put up with. Baseball is my summer entertainment. From February to November, it is my focus. I am not a huge basketball fan, and football, please it happens once a week.
Rays plan to use Lux as their everyday second baseman. Angels want to try Lowe in center.
Someone has to be removed from the 40-man when Tucker is officially signed. Jeff thinks it will be Ward. He is probably right. Dodgers signed Nick Robertson to a minor league contract. Robinson was originally a Dodger and was traded to the Red Sox in the Kike Hernandez deal
Do you guys think Ward will be DFAed or do you think he has enough value for a trade
Both.
To me, it is between Ward and Siani, but Siani has a slight advantage because he has some MLB experience and he is one year younger than Ward. Ward has little value in trade except as maybe an extra piece of a bigger deal like Raley was when he was traded to the Twins in the Graterol deal.
Comparison of Kyle Tucker and Hall of Famer Larry Walker at similar points in their careers:
Kyle Tucker Larry Walker
Games Played. 657 657
Batting Average .276. .280
OPS. .876. .832
Home Runs 136 96
RBI 44O 366
Stolen Bases 98 97
Gold Gloves 1 2
AllStar Game 3 1
As for a salary cap, is it a way to have parity or a way to allow badly run teams to be more competitive? While a salary floor will make low market teams spend more on the team, it is very doubtful that they will spend money throughout their organizations. As such, teams like the Dodgers will still be more successful.
The Dodgers are playing by the rules and paying the taxes as stipulated in the CBA. I couldn’t care less if it “looks bad” or is considered “gluttony.” They hate us because they ain’t us!
As for the “sky is falling” prediction of an assured lockout next year and a protracted work stoppage, I’ll wait on that speculation and see how the labor discussions go.
We’re the freaking Dodgers coming off back to back championships. What are we supposed to do?……lower our expectations and spending capital and act like we’re the West Sacramento A’s or the Tampa Rays. Dodger fans expect championships and ownership has, and will continue, to deliver.
Is the contract offered to Tucker ridiculous?….of course it is but I could also argue $700 million to Ohtani or $72 million to Tanner Scott and other contracts in MLB are just as ridiculous. It’s the present state of the game and I can’t wait for the 2026 season. If there is a lockout and no MLB baseball in 2027 life goes on. As far as today I’m glad Tucker is a Dodger.
It’s been reported that the Blue Jays offered Tucker $350 million over 10 years. Using Jeff’s numbers for WAR, this amounts to 4.4 WAR over the entire contract.
is this a more reasonable contract? On the surface, yes. But Toronto will be paying Tucker until he’s 38. So they’re on the hook for multiple years when his production will most likely be diminished. The Dodgers on the other hand will have Tucker during his most productive seasons. Just like any other contract or subscription, you pay less for a longer commitment. I wonder, would fans be in such an uproar if LA had made the longer term offer and Tucker accepted?