How Do the Dodgers Match Up?

                                We now know that the Dodgers will play either the Padres or the Braves in the first round. If the Braves by some miracle defeat the Padres, this would have to be the preferred match-up for fans. Although payback for 2022 would be nice, the Dodgers just seem to match up much better with Atlanta. I also think MLB should rethink the seeding and have the # 1 team face the lowest rated team after the wild card round. Reseeding makes sense. Because of that reason, MLB will most likely not do it. 

                               The Dodgers will use Ohtani, Betts, Freeman every day. The rest of the lineup is fluid. Roberts and the Dodgers love using match-up lineups. Muncy will definitely be at 3rd against RHP. We won’t know for a few days who will be on the 26-man offensively. The Dodgers are hoping for Freeman and Rojas to be ready to go. But assuming they both are, I will try a little one on one comparisons with the two teams we might face.  Today we will focus on the offense. Pitching will come later. 

                              First Base: Dodgers, Freddie Freeman. Freeman had an un-Freeman like year and there were a couple of reasons for this. The illness of his son kept him out for a week. He broke a finger and missed about the same number of games. He played in only 147 games this year. He played in 161 last year. He hit .282 with 22 homers and 89 driven in. With as much as he had on his mind, those are not bad numbers. His fielding remained gold glove caliber.  Braves: Matt Olson. Olson is a pure power hitter. But his power went down some this year and he hit 29 and drove in 98. Both numbers down from his career high 54/139 last season. He is Freeman’s equal with his glove. Freeman is a better hitter. Olson hit just .247. Padres: Jake Cronenworth: Cronenworth is a good hitter who has at times been a thorn in the Dodgers side. He has some pop, 17 homers, 83 driven in. He is more than adequate defensively. The Padres have also used Arraez and Bogaerts at first at times. But for now, Arraez is the DH and Bogaerts the starting SS. Freeman has a much higher OPS than either Olson or Cronenworth. No clear advantage for either team.  With Bogaerts moving to SS with the injury to Kim, Cronenworth has moved over to second. Solano and Arraez most likely will split duties at first. 

                             Second Base: Dodgers, Gavin Lux has been the primary second baseman for the Dodgers this year. And it has been a tale of two halves. In the first 78 games, Lux was abysmal. He hit .213 with three homers. It did not seem to affect his defense very much. He seemed to have some problems on his throws, but the more he played there, the better it got. He also does not seem to make some plays you would think he should. In the second half, he took off. Since then, he has hit .304 in 61 games and has 7 homers and 26 driven in. That is the Lux the Dodgers will need in the playoffs. Kike, Taylor, Betts have also logged some innings at second. Braves: Ozzie Albies: Albies has had an injury plagued year. He appeared in only 99 regular season games, and therefore his stats have suffered. He hit 33 homers last season; this year he has 10. A switch hitter, because of his injury, he is batting from the right side only. He is a .300 hitter from the right side, but most of his power comes when he hits left. Padres: Bogaerts was the starter until Kim went down. Now it appears that the job will fall to Cronenworth. 

                          Third Base: Dodgers: Max Muncy is the primary third baseman. As we all know Max has missed significant time this season due to injury. But he still is a huge power threat, and he has the 4th best OPS .852 on the team. Max’s defense is better than it was when he first moved to third.  He draws walks and hits for power and strikes out a lot. That is Muncy’s game. Braves: With Austin Riley done for the year, Atlanta has had to improvise some. But since they traded for Gio Urshela, he has got the bulk of the work. Urshela has played 36 games since the trade. He has hit .265 with 4 homers and 15 driven in. He has been very good on defense. Padres: Manny Machado: Machado is one of the best third basemen in the majors. He is a vacuum cleaner at third and since he got his bat going, he is once again one of the more feared hitters in the league. He hit 29 homers during the regular season.  Advantage over Braves and Dodgers to the Padres third baseman. 

                       Shortstop: Dodgers: Miguel Rojas, if healthy, will get the bulk of the playing time at SS for the Dodgers. He has had his best year since 2019 offensively. His health is the only concern. At one point, the Dodgers won 24 straight games when he started. His defense is a-one. He has been very good in clutch situations. He has one of the better BA with RISP on the team, .295. And he is a leader both on and off of the field. The Dodgers need Miggy Ro. If he can’t go, the primary SS job will fall to Edman. Braves: Orlando Arcia is the Braves SS. Not much of a hitter but he has more power than Rojas, 17 homers. He is above average on defense. Padres: Xander Bogaerts is now the starting SS for San Diego. His offensive numbers are down across the board in his second year in San Diego of his long-term deal. His defense is not the greatest as he has had some problems with readjusting to the position. His backup is Nick Ahmed. Solid glove man, not much stick. 

                      LF: Dodgers: Teoscar Hernandez is the primary for LA. He had a solid season with the Dodgers with 33 homers and 99 driven in. He has done well in clutch situations.  He is one of five Dodgers with an OPS over .800. Solid defensively. Still strikes out too much as many sluggers do. Pages, Taylor have also had time in left.  Braves: The primary LF for the Braves is Jared Kelenic. Obtained in a trade last December with the Mariners, he had some drop off in his offensive numbers. Defensively he is excellent. Braves have also used Adam Duvall and Ramon Laureano in left. Padres: Jurickson Profar is the Padres primary LF. Offensively he has had his best pro season. He is more than adequate as a defender, and he has been very good in clutch situations. 

                      CF: Dodgers: The Dodgers have used several players in CF this year. James Outman started the season there, when he was sent down the job went to Andy Pages. Pages did ok for a while offensively, but his defense in CF leaves a lot to be desired. At the deadline LA traded for Kevin Kiermaier, a top-notch defender with not so good offense, and Tommy Edman, a versatile player who is also a very good CF. His offensive numbers are reflective of only playing a little over a month since he came off of the IL. Braves: Michael Harris III. Harris is an excellent defender. He has speed and is MLB average offensively. He has some pop, 16 homers, but for a player with his speed, he does not steal much. Duvall has been his backup. Padres: Jackson Merrill is the Padres CF. He is having an excellent rookie year and is one of the top candidates for ROY. He has good power and is excellent defensively. 

                      RF: Dodgers: Mookie is back at his gold glove position. When the Dodgers needed him to move back, he made the transition from SS back to his old spot seamlessly.  He is a very streaky hitter but when he gets hot, he can carry the team. They need him to be much better in the playoffs this year than he was the last couple of years. Solid power and very good defensively. Pages has also played RF a lot and done well. Braves: Jorge Soler has become the main man in right since his trade back to Atlanta. A lot of power, so-so defensively. Laureano also spends time in right for the Braves. Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr is their guy in right. Tons of power, he has become a very good RF. Cannon for an arm, don’t run on this guy. David Peralta also gets time in right and left field. 

                       C: Dodgers: Will Smith. Smith is one of the best catchers in the majors. That being said, is has been an up and down year offensively for him. Career wise he is a .258 hitter with an OPS over .800.  He is hitting 10 points below that number this year, and his OPS is .760. His defense though has been very good, especially throwing out runners. He has caught 32 this year. Up from 19 last year. He has had some nagging injuries which no doubt has contributed to his offensive fall off. He still managed to hit 20 homers for the third time in four years. His backup is Austin Barnes. Had one of his better offensive seasons this year. Solid defensively but does not throw out many runners. Braves: The Braves use a tandem of Travis dArnaud and Sean Murphy. dArnaud is decent offensively and a very good defensive catcher. He also has had some very clutch hits for the Braves. Murphy has fallen off of a cliff offensively from his first season in Atlanta. He is below the Mendoza line. Padres: Kyle Higashioka has taken over the bulk of the catching duties in San Diego. The former Yankee took over the job from Luis Campusano, the 25-year-old has not had a good season. Kyle’s backup now is former Rockie, Elias Diaz. 

                   Bench: Dodgers: The Dodgers prefer to use players who are versatile and multi-positional on their bench. Barnes is the backup catcher. Then there is Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor, and Kevin Kiermaier is the only LH bat on the bench. Kiermaier has a dislocated finger. Whether or not he will be on the 26-man roster for the first round is up in the air. He could be replaced by James Outman. A lot depends on the Dodgers first round opponent. Padres are righty heavy starters wise. The Braves have two lefty starters if Sale is available for the LDS. Braves: The Braves have utility player Eli White, Whit Merrifield, Sean Murphy, and Kelenic off of the bench. Padres: Diaz, Ahmed, Solano, Wade, Peralta and Lockridge. Wade and Lockridge are usually used late in games as defensive or pinch runners. Both have excellent speed. 

                 DH: Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, the big show, had a season for the ages. Set a Dodger season record for home runs with 54. He drove in 130 and stole 59 bases. Baseball’s first ever 50-50 player. Most fans are excited to see him back on the mound next year. Braves: Marcel Ozuna. Ozuna was neck and neck with Ohtani for the first half of the season, but he slumped some after the break. Still finished with excellent numbers. Third in the league in hitting behind Arraez and Ohtani. He drove in 104 runs and hit 39 homers. His OPS is over .900. Padres: Arraez has been the DH for many of the Padre’s games. They have also used Solano and Peralta in that spot. They tend to mix and match. 

             Overall view: The Dodgers have a slight edge on the Braves and Padres at first base, catcher and LF. They also have the edge at DH. RF is a push with the Padres and a plus against Atlanta. Defensively the SS position is a plus over SD and a slight plus over the Braves. Offensively the Padres SS has more power. CF is a plus for Atlanta and SD over whoever the Dodgers put out there. Third base is a plus for the Padres over both teams. Dodgers have an edge with Muncy over Urshela. Dodger bench is the most versatile, Braves and Padres bench’s are both deeper. The Padres lead the majors in offense, and they do not strike out a lot. Dodgers score a lot of runs when their offense is clicking. But they also can have days where it seems they took the day off. The Braves offense without Riley and Acuna is simply not as potent as it has been. They have some nice pieces, but they need contributions from their stars. Second base: This is one position where the Padres seemingly have it over both teams. Albies is having a down year, Lux is streaky at best with the bat, and sometimes is shaky on defense. Cronenworth is good defensively and contributes solidly to the offense. 

           Conclusion: Dodgers-Braves would be the easier route to the LCS for the Dodgers. They did well against Atlanta’s pitching and with Sale a question mark, and the Dodger pitching in the state it is in, navigating that lineup seems a lot easier than San Diegos. Dodgers-Padres: If LA has to play the Padres, it is going to be a dogfight. LA wants some payback for 22, and the Padres want to finally win a World Series. LA fans have a huge disdain for the Padres. Dodgers will need to take full advantage of home field advantage in any playoff scenario. They are a much better home team than they are on the road. 

       These are my own projections of how I see the teams involved. Not an expert, just the view of a fan.