There is nothing the Dodgers can do to fix the lack of SP. There is nobody in the wings. None of Glasnow, Kershaw, Gonsolin, May, Stone…are going to make it back for the World Series. So the team is going to go with Jack Flaherty, Yoshi Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, and a bullpen game.
It has been announced that Jack Flaherty is going to start Game 1. He could come back on regular rest for Game 5, and would be available for relief in Game 7. This was the game plan for Kershaw in 2017. The downside is that will also be the game plan for Gerrit Cole.
Cole has not been near the dominant Cole in 2024. Perhaps lingering effects from his elbow injury to start the season? Here is his 2024 Statcast page.
He has below average whiff and chase rates which should help the Dodgers hitters. He will walk batters, but not with the same rate as NYM. With 25th percentile average exit velocity, and his 26th percentile ground ball rate, he does seem to give up a lot of loud fly balls. Does that bode well for LAD?
In his career, Cole has been a mediocre pitcher against the Dodgers, but most of those starts have come when he was with Pittsburgh. 8 starts – 46.2 IP, 5.01 ERA, 1.350 WHIP.
He has pitched just one game against LAD since 2018. In 2023, at Dodger Stadium, he pitched 6.0 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits, with 2 BB and 5 K in a NYY win. It was his 7th win of the year (no losses) in his CY winning year. He was very good in 2023. 2024??? He is obviously still very formidable.
To complete the picture, Jack Flaherty has pitched once against NYY, and that too was in 2023. On July 1, 2023, in St. Louis, he pitched 6.0 scoreless innings allowing 4 hits, 2 BB, and 4 K.
I am guessing that Yamamoto will go in Game 2. He will have 5 full days rest for Game 6 (if necessary). Walker Buehler should get Game 3 which will be 12 days since his last start. Too long of a break? He is going to need to pitch to batters this week, but the competition juices will not be there. Buehler will be available to start Game 7 (if necessary). I trust Walker Buehler in Game 7 more than Yu Darvish.
Carlos Rodón figures to be the 2nd NYY starting pitcher. For his career against LAD: 5 games started, 28.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.321 WHIP, 14 BB, 26 K. He last pitched against LAD in 2022: 3 starts, 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 7 BB, 18 K.
The Dodgers have been much better against LHP this year. Three lefty “killers”, Teoscar Hernández, Tommy Edman, and Kiké Hernández should help the top three in the lineup. (I am counting on Freddie Freeman until it is reported otherwise). Pages, another good hitter against LHP, should get the start in CF when Rodón pitches.
Yamamoto will probably start Game 2. We all remember what he did the last time he pitched against NYY. NYY hitters will remember that game as well.
NYY will probably have Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil start Games 3 and 4. Schmidt has never faced LAD and Gil had one very mediocre start against LAD this year. Walker Buehler has never pitched against NYY.
The NYY bullpen will be stronger with Nestor Cortes back from his elbow injury. Late in the season, he figures to be added.
Will the Dodgers counter with Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol? With the addition of those two, I guess that Edgardo Henriquez and Landon Knack will be relegated to the taxi squad in case of an injury. In the playoffs, it is results that count. Casparius has been the better pitcher than Knack, and that should be enough for him to get the call.
Neither team seems to have a dominant pitching staff. Both teams will rely on their bats. But the LAD bullpen continues to find a way. I think they will again in this year’s WS.
Jeff, have you heard the Eriq Swan hype from AFL? BA is very high on him.
Speaking of Swan, Keith Law has three reports from the AFL, one of which features the aforementioned 4th round pick.
report 1 ($$$$)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5852621/2024/10/18/afl-notes-tre-morgan-zyhir-hope-grant-taylor/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Dodgers outfielder Zyhir Hope, … gotten substantially stronger since high school, but still is a plus runner. ..
report 2 ($$$)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5855721/2024/10/20/afl-notes-andrew-painter-eriq-swan/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Dodgers’ Swan an emerging armEriq Swan is probably the biggest breakout pitcher so far in the AFL..He’s 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, and the arm works very well to keep him a starter; the one thing I didn’t see was a good pitch for lefties, as his changeup was too firm at 90-91 and pin-straight…
report 3 ($$$$)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5860771/2024/10/21/arizona-fall-league-scouting-ethan-salas-termarr-johnson/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Sean McLain, IF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Glendale Desert Dogs)McLain is on Glendale with his brother, rehabbing Reds big-leaguer Matt McLain, and Sean is a good example of how AFL performance can mislead you… He’s feasting on the weak pitching out in the desert… I don’t mean to pick on him — he hit some balls on the screws and made some really nice plays at third….
I have. He was getting hype since he was drafted. He is another high velo pitcher (has reached 102). But like many LAD prospects he is injury prone. He spent most of the year on and off the IL.
Right now plus fastball (65/70); average slider (50/55), and below average change (40/50) with below average command (30/40). He has very high relief risk. Not a bad thing.
He has pitched well in AFL, but it is very small sample size (6.0 IP). He is someone to watch. I need to see a full season injury free.
Thanks
For what it’s worth I saw Swan pitch at Rancho July 1st. He went 3 innings gave up 3 runs 3 hits 1 walk 4 K’s 1 home run. He was consistently at 95-96 for his three innings. He actually looked good.
Also saw Hope later in the season the guy looks like one solid muscle. Dude looks good and has a damn good arm.
RIP Fernando
This is extraordinarily painful news. He got his number retired by LAD at the right time. Indeed RIP El Toro. 🙏
Sad News. So young. RIP. Fernando!
Well this certainly is horrible news and puts a damper on the upcoming WS.
The Dodgers announced that six-time All-Star Fernando Valenzuela has passed away. He was 63. MLB will honor Valenzuela during the upcoming World Series games at Dodger Stadium.
I am totally stunned and very saddened. I am so happy that the Dodgers retired his number and honored him before his untimely passing.
Rest In Peace El Toro. You will never be forgotten.
I saw this, but I don’t remember the comment at the time:
Fernando died. Who gives a shit about this quote. This sight and the other should be nothing but tributes to Fernando.
Not only was he a great a Dodger, he was responsible for bringing the Mexican heritage fans to the zdodgers. Remember there was quite a bit of resentment, justifiably so, for the theft of a Chavez Ravine. Fernando made it possible for that community to be Dodger fans
can you say brain dead?
A bit harsh, no?
And very unnecessary.
Lighten up. A lot of people cared about Fernando, and Jeff is the site administrator. Immediately after he got the news, he emailed me and asked me to do a post on him. People care, but they also care about news about the team. It is a shame he died at such a young age; I am 76, but life goes on. He is going to be honored during the World Series at Dodger Stadium, and just so you know, we do not tolerate name calling on this site. Do it again and your post will be deleted. No one here is brain dead.
BTW, this post was in the queue before I became aware of Fernando’s passing. I immediately contacted Bear to write a tribute to him. I also responded to Pee Wee Grogan above who broke the news for me. So I was literally the second person on this site to pay respects.
So before you cast stones, maybe you should get more information.
I’m a bit unhappy and unsure why the Dodgers are trotting out Flaherty. He was horrible in his last outing. Both Buehler and Yamamoto deserve to start this series. All should be on a short leash with the BP ready to go. Don’t let the Yanks hit HRs. I do hope our hitters are ready to rumble.
Flaherty is better than Yamamoto on normal rest. Dodgers giving him the extra day, and I would not judge Flaherty on his last start. He has been solid since he came over, and he was under the weather his last start.