Thoughts on Rōki Sasaki, Willy Adames, and Gavin Lux

The latest rumor is Rōki Sasaki.  A lot has been written about the Dodgers being the favorite to sign Sasaki.  IMO, It kind of depends as to when the Chiba Lotte Marines post him.  If they post him before December 15, he will fall in the 2024 class, and the Dodgers are the clear favorites in that scenario.

Los Angeles Dodgers have kept the most available space left in their 2024 signing bonus pool, $2,502,500.  Baltimore has $2,147,300 remaining, the New York Yankees $1,487,200 and San Francisco $1,247,500. The other teams have under $1 million, including Tampa Bay and Texas with no money available and eight other clubs with less than $100,000.

If Sasaki is posted on January 15, 2025, he falls under the 2025 bonus pools.  The Dodgers are at a huge disadvantage monetarily.

$7,555,500 Pool

Cincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays

$6,908,600 Pool

Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Guardians
Colorado Rockies
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates

$6,261,600 Pool

Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
Washington Nationals

$5,646,200 Pool

Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals

$5,146,200 Pool

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants

San Diego (and NYY and NYM) has $1,115,400 more than LAD in 2025 IFA bonus $$$.

So if Rōki Sasaki wants to be a Dodger, he needs to convince the Marines to post him before December 15.  But there is no incentive for the Marines to do so as they figure to get 20% of the bonus as a fee.  There will be more $$$$ with the January 15 posting date.  Joel Wolfe, his agent, is also going to push for him to be posted on January 15.  Besides Yamamoto and Darvish, Wolfe also represents fellow Japanese players Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) and Kodai Senga (NYM).

Question – Will Wolfe think that with Ohtani and Yamamoto already Superstars with LAD (and Mookie & Freddie), how much more marketing $$$ will be available for a third Japanese player?  I do not know the answer, but it is a legit question.

Then there is the question about Sasaki’s health.  He just turned 23, and he has had multiple injury concerns.  This might scare off a lot of would-be suitors, but the Dodgers have never been afraid of injuries.

Some of those injuries:

Right arm injury: In June 2024, Sasaki missed two consecutive starts due to a right arm injury. The Marines manager said the injury was due to the “poor condition of his right arm”.

Left oblique tear: Sasaki was shut down from throwing due to a left oblique tear.

Upper body fatigue: Sasaki failed to recover from upper body fatigue after a start against SoftBank in May 2024.

Arm soreness: Sasaki experienced arm soreness during the previous season.

Declining velocity: Sasaki’s velocity has declined slightly over the past few years.

Yes, Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki’s fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 mph in 2023 to 96.9 mph in 2024.  That is 2.0 MPH loss for a 22-year-old.  Is he a TJ surgery waiting to happen?  The Dodgers can absorb the hit far better than other teams.

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At last week’s GM meeting in San Antonio, there was a lot of rumors floated, and at least 2 offers to SS Willy Adames: LAD and NYM.  We know the NYM offer was $160MM for 7 years, but Adames would have to move to 3B, which he said he would be agreeable for the right opportunity (offer).  But really, would he????  Why minimize your leverage even though you have no desire to play anywhere other than SS.

It has been reported that the Dodgers prefer to acquire a franchise SS for a multiyear term (5-6 years), thus the interest in Adames.  For the Dodgers he would not be moved to 3B or 2B, and he would not need to be the face of the team like he was with Milwaukee.  He could just play a solid SS and put up solid offensive and defensive metrics.  Adames has averaged a 3.9 fWAR over the last 4 years, or $124.9MM value.  It sure seems like $160MM over 6 years is a doable contract.  He has a 4.8 fWAR last year for a value of $38.1MM.

Signing Adames would not be the end for Alex Freeland as a LAD.  He can also play 3B.  They can then wait for one of Joendry Vargas, Emil Morales, or Kellon Lindsey to break away from the others.

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I think it is pretty clear that Mookie wants to play the infield (2B).  Of course there will remain fans who believe he should play RF.  I have to believe the Dodgers AF/BG have already had the discussion and came away with the understanding that Mookie wants the infield.  Thus, the comment from Gomes at the GM meeting that Mookie was moving to the infield.  I cannot see Gomes announcing that Mookie is moving back to the infield without Mookie’s “acknowledgement”.  He will obviously play some RF in certain situations.

But with Mookie at 2B, that makes Lux a trade option.  Lux is too good to be simply a bench player.  CWS wants position players.  Per Chris Getz (CWS GM):

“We are focusing on position player return,” Getz said. “That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can’t force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear. That is what we need to do in any trade or free-agent acquisition ….

“You want to get the highest return for your club. Some organizations’ top talent is much different than others. We have spent a lot of time and resources studying other teams’ farm systems. Garrett had an outstanding year, so as much as other teams are interested, I can also see him making an Opening Day start for us as well.”

Gavin Lux is a huge improvement over Lenyn Sosa.  Do the White Sox consider James Outman an improvement over Zach DeLoach?  He certainly has much more power potential.  Lux has 2 years control (same as Crochet), and Outman has 4 years of control.

One of Dalton Rushing or Josue DePaula would probably be required, and then one 10-20 prospect, and a DSL lottery ticket.   Then again AF/BG may not be willing to give up a top 100 prospect with 2 MLB players.   If the Dodgers want Crochet, they can get him.

For all those who do not want Crochet because of the 2^nd half of last year, consider that before 2024 he had pitched 12.2 innings in relief for the prior two years.  For his MLB career, prior to 2024, Crochet has thrown 73.0 innings all in relief.  My guess is that he hit a wall in the 2^nd half.  He pitched more than double his career innings in 2024.  He will be a 26-year-old LHSP, and the projected arbitration salaries are just about a wash: Crochet ($2.9MM) and Lux ($2.7MM).

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The Dodgers are reported to be in contract negotiations with Walker Buehler.