Last year Scott Boras effectively stalled the FA process by holding back his “Boras Four”: Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman, for the “best possible deal”. Those deals never materialized.
“When spring training opened last February, Boras had not yet found deals for his four prominent clients. Bellinger became the first member of “the Boras Four” to sign when he returned to the Chicago Cubs on Feb. 27 with a three-year, $80 million contract that featured opt-outs after the first and second seasons. The others all took similar pillow contracts, short-term deals designed as a springboard for a brighter future. Chapman signed a three-year, $54 million deal with the San Francisco Giants; Snell became his teammate on a two-year, $62 million contract; Montgomery received a two-year, $47.5 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
Not very “Borasesque”. He lost Jordan Montgomery as a client as a result. Chapman eventually got his 9-figure deal with SFG as an extension. Bellinger was probably not worth what he signed for, so accepting his option was a no-brainer. But it was still only a 3-year deal and south of $100MM. Snell will (should) get his 9 figure deal this time, but he better not wait until spring training like he did last year.
Last year Boras had 12 free agent clients, and this year he has 18. But not just any 18. Using MLBTR’s top 50 free agents as my guide, Boras represents the top 4, 6 of top 10, 8 of top 20, and 11 of top 50. Boras has the ability to stall a lot of the free agent market. But does he risk a repeat of what happened last year with his “Boras Four”?
2024-2025 Scott Boras Free Agent Clients:
- Juan Soto (#1)
- Corbin Burnes (#2)
- Alex Bregman (#3)
- Blake Snell (#4)
- Pete Alonso (#7)
- Sean Manaea (#10)
- Yusei Kikuchi (#12)
- Tyler O’Neill (#19)
- Frankie Montas (#27)
- Max Scherzer (#33)
- Ha-Seong Kim (#43)
- Michael Conforto
- Joey Gallo
- Josh Bell
- JD Martinez
- Cody Bellinger – Exercised player option
- Rhys Hoskins – Exercised player option
- Gerrit Cole – NYY exercised team option
I know Boras can walk and chew gum at the same time, and we are still about 4 weeks out until the Winter Meetings, so there is no real urgency. However, this week he is hosting meetings with 4 teams who are in on the Juan Soto auction. Thus far, NYY, NYM, Boston, and Toronto are meeting with Boras and Soto this week in Southern California (probably near his Newport Beach offices). How much time can he devote to his other clients this week?
At the GM Meetings, Senior National Writer, Mark Feinsand, kept hearing that the deal will likely be in the 13 to 14-year, $625 million range, without any deferrals. The AAV of Shohei Ohtani’s present-day value of his contract is $46.08MM. That will be Boras’ target number. Thus 13 years – $625MM appears to be his floor.
Not all of Boras’ clients wait until spring training. In fact, there is evidence that the earlier a Boras client signs, the better deal he gets for his clients.
- Marcus Semien – November 28 – 7 years $175MM ($25MM AAV)
- Corey Seager – November 29 – 10 years $325MM ($32.5MM AAV)
- Gerrit Cole – December 11 – 9 years $324MM ($36MM AAV)
- Carlos Rodón – December 15 – 6 years $162MM ($27MM AAV)
- Aaron Judge – December 20 – 9 years $360MM ($40MM AAV)
- JD Martinez – February 18 (Boston) – 5 years $110MM ($22MM AAV)
- Bryce Harper – February 28 – 13 years $330MM ($25.38MM AAV)
- Nick Castellanos – March 19 – 5 years $100MM ($20MM AAV)
The first five are at or more than likely exceed the expected market values for each of the players and were all signed before New Year’s. While the bottom three were well below what Boras was seeking, and all signed after the start of spring training report dates. ST games had already started when Harper and Castellanos finally signed. Add in the Boras Four from last year, and that puts an exclamation point on late signings.
I look for Juan Soto to go around the Winter Meetings. According to many journalists, the Dodgers will kick the tires on Soto but will truly only get involved if the market recedes (unlikely with NYY and NYM).
The Dodgers are reportedly not likely to be a serious threat for Juan Soto https://t.co/XYo7USudAx pic.twitter.com/xcekUyMT93
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 12, 2024
or:
While the Dodgers — who spent over $1 billion last offseason and won the 2024 World Series — are interested in Soto, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, they aren’t going to chase him like they did Ohtani.
“The Dodgers won’t chase after Soto,” Passan wrote. “Ohtani’s presence at designated hitter would leave them with limited options should Soto’s defensive range force a move.”
There are several other similar reports.
I do think Boras will try to push Snell through earlier so there is no repeat of last year for him. But how willing will teams be to negotiate a 5-year deal for a 32-year-old pitcher, which is what Boras is pushing. AF drafted and signed Snell in 2011, so there is familiarity. While no major arm surgery, he has had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies, and multiple adductor strains. He is LHP with no qualifying offer. I do not think AF would go to 5 years (just my opinion), but I do think he could go 3 years with a good AAV, a strategy that Boras has pooh-poohed in the past. Maybe AF can get by with 3 years and a pair of vesting options.
Corbin Burnes would be my first choice of any of the Boras clients. He is a workhorse without an injury past. He has been incredible since he moved full time to a SP in 2021. He was a teammate of Tony Gonsolin at St. Mary’s (Moraga, CA). They were both drafted in 2016. Burnes was drafted in 4th round while Gonsolin was drafted in the 9th round. Burnes is from Bakersfield but grew up a HUGE LAA fan. IMO, Burnes is the ultimate Boras client. He is a mercenary and will go to the highest bidder. At 30 years old, I do not see AF approaching the 7 years that Boras is looking at and will probably get. It is not the $$$ but the years.
I do not think that AF/BG will be strong contenders for any of Boras’ other clients. Thus, this should be another year where AF does not sign a Boras client. JDM for one year has been it. Not to mention the bad blood between LAD and Boras after Boras’ comments on the Dodgers mishandling Cody Bellinger. They say that any animosity is gone, but is it really?
To throw another wrinkle into the free agent frenzy is the number of players given a qualifying offer – 1 year $21.05MM. Some are no-brainers, while some are very curious.
- Willy Adames
- Pete Alonso
- Alex Bregman
- Corbin Burnes
- Max Fried
- Teoscar Hernández
- Sean Manaea
- Nick Martinez
- Nick Pivetta
- Anthony Santander
- Luis Severino
- Juan Soto
- Christian Walker
Manaea’s last two contracts were both 2 years at $25MM and $28MM. He will be 33 next year and is looking for a 3-year deal. He is LHP so there will be interest, but with Boras as his agent and a QO attached, I can see this one going awhile. It is not something Boras will do, but maybe it would be best for Manaea to accept the QO, prove his mechanical adjustments will hold, and then try again next year.
Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino, and Nick Martinez certainly have to be candidates to accept the QO. Pivetta has never had a season where he had a sub 4.0 ERA. He will be 32 years old for 2025.
While Nick Martinez has been a good pitcher since he returned from Japan, he is 34 and has been primarily a reliever. In his last three years since his return, Martinez has pitched in 152 games but only started 35. Thus, the Reds are giving a $21.05MM offer to primarily a reliever. I do not know a lot of teams who would be willing to give up draft picks for a reliever.
Luis Severino, a pitcher for the New York Yankees, has had several injuries throughout his career, including:
- 2019: A grade 2 lat strain that forced him to miss five months of the season
- 2020: Tommy John surgery that kept him out for the entire season
- 2021: A grade 2 groin strain in midseason that delayed his return until September
- 2022: A low grade lat strain that caused him to miss two months
- 2023: A high-grade left oblique strain that ended his season
Severino has also had other injuries, including rotator cuff inflammation in spring training in 2019, and elbow injuries in 2020 and 2021.
That is a lot of down time for a player to walk from a $21.05MM QO. He will be 31 next year. Last year was the first year Severino has exceeded 102 IP since 2018 (182.0 IP).
What players would the Dodgers be willing to give up their 2nd and 5th top picks in next year’s draft, plus losing $1MM in international bonus $$$, and considering that their #1 pick will drop 10 positions? I would hazard a guess at Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Juan Soto. If the Dodger’s sign two free agents with a QO, they will also lose their 3rd and 6th top draft choices.
Let’s assume that the Dodgers do re-sign Teoscar. If the Dodgers sign Adames and Fried, they would have:
- 1st round draft pick 10 positions behind where their 1st round draft position.
- Lose 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th draft picks.
That would leave LAD with a draft pick around #40, and their 4th round (around #130 pick) for the first 6 rounds, and losing another $1MM in the 2026 International bonus pool.
If the Dodgers do not re-sign Teo, the Dodgers would retain their 5th round pick, as Teoscar’s draft pick compensation would be after the 4th round, and that would become the Dodgers 5th highest pick that would be lost.
We are just starting the free agent frenzy. We are 5 days from players deciding to accept or decline their QO, 5 days from when Rule 5 draft eligible prospects need to be protected, and 24 days before the start of the Winter Meetings. But there is enough chatter that gives fans hope that their favorite free agent player might be coming to LAD.
While there probably is not a Dodger fan that would not want Juan Soto on the 2025 LAD roster, AF’s history with Scott Boras clients clearly indicates it is extremely unlikely that he will not be signing with the Dodgers. And again, it is not the Dodgers, it is Scott Boras.
I have seen a ton of pundits who think Soto is going to get north of 600 million. But is he worth that? I seriously do not think so. First, he is not all that great of a defender. Whereas Ohtani brings a whole country to the Dodgers as fans, and a stream of income that Soto cannot come close to matching. Ohtani puts butts in the seats, Soto has never been THE MAN on any team he has played on. He had Harper in DC, Machado and Tatis in SD and Judge in NY. His best bet is to go back to the Yankees. Dodgers would love his bat, but he really is not a complete ballplayer.
Dodgers do not need Soto NOW. But when you look 2- 3 years ahead it is a different view.
By then FF, Muncy will have reached the end of their contracts. That is two big LH bats gone. Plus it will open up 1b to play Soto there or move Ohtani to 1b and Soto to DH.
The assumed 13 year, 600 million dollar deal will look like a bargain when looking back.
IMHO the Dodgers should try to get him. While not a even an average defender in the OF his bat is HOF already.
I would not be angry or disappointed if the Dodgers go another direction and not sign Soto but IMHO with an eye on the near and even more the long term they should try hard to bring him to DS.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I will say right now, Soto is not going to be a Dodger. I would be shocked if they signed him, not only because he is a Boras client, and like I have said many times, they have not signed a Boras client to a long-term deal since they signed Kevin Brown in 1999. AF has never signed a Boras client for more than 1 year. People throw that Hall of Fame stuff around way too easily. A lot can happen during a players career. I have seen injuries derail some very good players. He is on track to be that kind of a player, but he is far from a Hall of Famer right now. AF does not like doing business with Boras, if he did, there would be a couple of his clients with LA right now. Another thing, outside of Teo, I doubt he signs any player who has a QO attached to him. That is why I don’t believe they will sign Burnes, Snell, or Soto.
I think Snell has no QO attached to him.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!
So much pitching talent out there…
I’ve coveted Burnes for a couple of years, but here’s my new shopping list.
–Sasaki, because of course.
–Buehler, for sentimental reasons.
–Crochet, because trades are exciting and would liberate some blocked Dodger talent; because he’s a lefty, and because he’s younger that guys like Burnes and Snell.
Of these three Buehler would require the most money upfront, but he also figures to command much less than Burnes, Snell or Fried. That will make it easier to bring back Teo, Treinen and Kike–and maybe add Adames too.
Starting the season, here’s the six-man rotation:
Yamamoto
Sasaki (the first two games will be in Tokyo, after all)
Glasnow
Crochet
Buehler
Gonsolin
Within a couple of months, at least one of these guys will get hurt or struggle–and Shohei will be ready to step in.
Later on, another injury will create an opening for Kershaw.
I’m on board with this.
I think the ship on Kike has sailed. Unless they were to find a way to cut Taylor loose, he would give them four utility type players, Taylor, Kike, Rojas and Edman and there is very little pop in that group. They need a LH bopper off of the bench.
That could be James Outman. His trade value is next to nothing, so it is best to hold onto him. What if he recovers in 2025 as a platoon OF and bench player? I think he is worth the risk. Of course a team that LAD is trading with might also want to take that risk, and he gets added to a package. Ryan Ward is LH hitting, and has one more year in the LAD organization unless he is protected or picked up in Rule 5 (doubtful). He led all of PCL in HR with 33 and 2nd overall to Miami’s 21 year old 3B Deyvison De Los Santos with 40 (26 AAA and 14 AA). Ward is listed as an OF, but at his age, he is more of a 4th OF, part time DH, and LH hitter off the bench. Nothing wrong with that.
I think Outman will get another shot in Spring Training. He could be a platoon with Edman in CF. Rojas at SS and Edman in CF against lefties. Outman in CF and Edman at SS against righties.
How about Outman in a platoon with Pages?
In ’24, Pages had a .916 OPS against lefties–and only .647 against righties. (Oddly, he hit 10 of his 13 HRs against righties.)
In ’23, Outman had a .835 OPS against righties, including 22 HRs. His overall OPS was .790–but the ’24 season was forgettable.
If the Dodgers get Adames, Edman will play CF. If not, he should be the starting SS, with Rojas reverting to a reserve role.
Disagree.
The Dodgers LOVE utility players.
You didn’t even list their best one: Mookie.
It’s a pity–and a bit strange–that Lux is so limited. I used to think he could be a lefty-swinging UT complement to Taylor. Miguel Vargas was another guy who proved that he wasn’t good enough to be UT guy for the Dodgers.
Kike may leave for a better offer, but he also might give the Dodgers a hometown discount.
Remember: Kike left LA for a starting job in Boston, but that didn’t work out great so he reverted to a UT role. Zach McKinstry was the new Kike. He started strong, but got hurt and was eventually traded for RP Chris Martin. Now McKinstry is a UT guy for the rising Tigers.
If Kike leaves, the next prospect up could be Alex Freeland, who is a shortstop but has shown some ability to move around.
If the Dodgers sign Adames, there may be no room for Kike or Freeland in ’25.
I would love to see Outman get his mojo back. Perhaps he could platoon with Pages, who killed lefties but struggled against righties. Assuming that Teo comes back but Kike doesn’t, the OF could feature him, Edman, Pages, Outman and Taylor.
Or let’s trade Outman and bring up Rushing….
No, he does not, but he is also a Boras client.
Zero interest in Soto.
For the cost of Soto, the Dodgers could bring in Adames and Sasaki–and also bring back back Teo, Buehler, Treinin and Kike.
I’m a Dodger fan that does not want Soto on the roster. I have seen countless.comments from others who do not want him on the team.
If we re sign Teo do we lose a draft spot.or retain it?
Signing your own free agent who has the QO does not cost you a draft pick.
Interesting and thought provoking thread Jeff.
With both New York teams in the bidding I don’t see Soto here unless he wants to be here and will take less. That ain’t happening.
What are it the Dodgers needs? A costly shortstop? They just won a championship without one. Starting pitching? Again, they just won with only a few reliable starters this year. One could argue they don’t need anything.
So I will say what I’ve already said, sign Adames and Teo, pick a reliable starter you like and wait til the deadline to add pieces.
A question came up reading your post Jeff. In today’s game, where velocity and spin rate are top priorities, exactly when do starting pitchers start their downward trend. I know there are outliers to this, guys like Scherzer and Verlander, but at what age does signing expensive pitching become risky? I read a fangraphs article that said velocity and BB/9 starts trending down long before age 30. I also saw a graph on Beyond the Box Score that said pitchers start losing it at age 26, but that was several years ago. What is it now?
I’ve always had a gut feeling that paying starting pitching past the age of 35 is crazy. From what I’ve seen, age 33 is old for a starter. That’s about where Kershaw went from a 170 inning pitcher to a 120 inning pitcher. He actually peaked at age 25. That was 12 years ago. What’s your take on the subject?
I tend to agree, sign Teo, and get a legit SS, maybe Adames or trade.for one. Get a mid rotation lh starter. But would you re sign Treinen and Kike?
Treinen yes. Kiké probably not. He’s versatile but a .654 OPS just doesn’t help the lineup enough for my liking. Would prefer getting younger at that roster spot. Who that might be? Don’t know. Thought it could be Gauthier, now doubt it. Lipcius? Shows promise, but I think the organization might look outside for that 26th roster spot. I’m sure the team is also hoping CT3 can it back. That would sure help.
Kike’s offense improved after he started wearing spectacles. After the all-star break, his OPS was .765. Not shabby.
Chris Taylor–in about 100 fewer ABs–also hit to a .765 OPS after the break.
And much-maligned Max, meanwhile, marvelously mashed .925.
Of all the Dodgers, only Shohei out-OPSed Max after the all-star break. (Who knew?)
I was rooting for Gauthier, but SS Alex Freeland had a breakthrough last season and could be knocking on the door as the team’s No. 3 prospect (per mlb.com). Signing Kike could block him–but Freeland could also be part of a deal for Crochet.
So Burnes grew up in Bakersfield rooting for the Angels? Really? He probably wants to go to winner, but he’s the kind of pitcher the Halos need.
If the Dodgers don’t sign him, I hope the Angels get Buehler.
The articles you referenced provide some interesting information on the reduced performance of pitchers after the age of 26. The stats on Kershaw were eye opening for me. The Cincinnati QF to Martinez is a real head scratcher. It doesn’t make any sense to me.
I agree with your other thoughts on off season moves for the team. Good stuff Badger
Thanks Ted.
Burnes is 30. Looks to me like he peaked at 26-27. But he still threw 190 innings this year. 3.7 fWAR wasn’t as high as might be expected, but, those innings, 2.92 ERA with a 1.096 WHIP impress. Going forward….. what will he do on his after 30 slide? What is WAR worth now? A few years ago fangraphs had it at $10 million per. Now I think it’s $8 million. How many years out do you go with a guy like this? Does he throw hard? Does he spin the ball violently? His K/9 numbers are falling, from a high of 12.6 at age 26 to 8.4 this year. What’s the calculus for the next 5 years . Beats me. Anybody? Ted? Phil? Jeff?
Adames, Burnes, Teo, Flaherty, Buehler, light the candle.
Badger, the answer to Burnes being able to pitch into his 30’s is blowing in the wind. We all speculate on factors that cause pitchers to break down. Age, Max effort, max veto, max spin, iffy mechanics, innings, pitch count, and the list goes on.
We have arm surgeries with young pitchers whose mechanics look efficient, yet they break down. Mark Prior, our own pitching coach, appeared to have perfect mechanics at his time, yet he broke down.
In college, Tim Lincecum’s mechanics freaked out some scouts, saying he’s never last. Yet his college coach, Ken Knudsen, told me he thought Tim’s mechanics were ahead of his time and while he looked different, his mechanics were solid and would lead to a long career. He was right.
I posted above, that when scouts see a reduction in veto, they get suspicious. Yet, you and I think gearing down is a way to increase longevity.
How did Nolan Ryan throw 5386 innings with 5414 strikeouts before his arm fell off at age 46, while River Ryan’s elbow blows up after 20 innings and 18 strikeouts?
Those are the questions begging for answers, that everybody is seeking. I have my ideas, especially about training.
But the answer is blowing in the wind.
Nolan Ryan was just a freak of nature.
At age 63, he throw a ceremonial pitch at 85 mph.
I looked up Kersh’s stats he actually pitched well through his year 27 (301 Ks) in his first eight years, he pitched over 200 innings 5 different seasons.
Not arguing the fall off, just trying to throw out some numbers.
“Take it!” says every friend of Nick Martinez.
Great post Badger on signing aging pitchers and players in general. To me it’s stupid to sign a Snell for 5 years at age 32, Burnes for 7 years and even Adames to age 35. Piggy can play a strong SS at 35 but not many can. That and losing draft picks just makes it smart for AF to look elsewhere.
Developing young pitchers in-house, is the best idea. Now if knew how to keep them healthy.
In another vein, I see some folks spoke by Sasaki’s loss of some velocity.
That could be a warning flag.
It also might be a benefit. You and I have both suggested the value of learning to pitch at less than 100% on every pitch. Now, when this kid is perhaps doing that, some folks start freaking out. Seems the scouts want to see that max-effort every pitch.
Adames shouldn’t have to play SS at age 35, what with Freeland, JVargas, Morales and Lindsey all in the pipeline.
Adames can move to 3B or 1B–unless Freddie plays into his 40s.
Missed something there Bluto. Couldn’t get in at first, when I finally did it wasn’t talking about pitching so I googled it and it took me to a ‘21 article mostly about hitting b
My bad, didn’t read closely.
Count me as a Dodger fan that does not want him on the team. With the money he’ll cost and his irking personality. You’re the best blogger out there Jeff D by far. Keep up the good work
I’ve read often about the great chemistry this year’s Dodgers team had. When I was able to watch them on tv it seemed to be true. When I’ve seen Soto at bat and in the dugout he just doesn’t seem to have a good personality. If that is true, I just don’t know how badly that could affect the team. Any thoughts?
Sigh.
This again.
“Chemistry is a three game win streak.”
People here were worried about the Dodger’s fortitude, fight and chemistry (they don’t fight, they are lifeless on the bench) during the tough parts of the Padres series, then people reveled in how good chemistry (et al) was at the end of the World Series.
It’s the same with Soto. He’s a great teammate of the Yankees and they want him back. The Padres didn’t win and let him go.
Chemistry is a season long flotation device.
What did you think of their body language? 😀
Good article
Soto and Boras can pound sand. 😀
He lives in Newport Beach so, he could probably walk there to do it. Or drive his Bentley.
I mentioned this once before and I don’t think anyone commented on it — that Ohtani is not a typical right handed person who hits from the left side. A righty typically backhands the ball when hitting from the left side. That puts more stress on the left shoulder. Ohtani powers through the ball with his left arm. Maybe that is perfect for protecting his pitching arm but if he has issues with his left shoulder, it could affect his pitching and his power as a lefty hitter.
If that is true would it change the Dodger’s desire to sign Soto?
Might Betts wind up playing third base for the Dodgers.
I learned the top hand is the power hand. Is it different now? If not, how much power will be in that hand come April of next year?
I’m guessing it is for those switch hitters that have power from both sides.
Did you see Duke Not Sniders post about Max’s .925 OPS after the all star break last year, I doubt you could find many third baseman in all of baseball that had a better OPS in that time span
During that stretch he was willing to entertain hitting the ball to left center. He is very good except when he isn’t. Roberts loves him more than I do and I suspect Max is just fine with that.
Forgive me if this was previously discussed but Journalist? Jim Bowden, who’s a hack, had previously all but sewed up Roki Sasaki being a Dodger, changed his tune in an Athletic article today.
He listed a few reasons that the chances are 50-50. The first, and biggest, reason for Sasaki NOT being a Dodger is a new twist; since the kid can’t make the big money, due to his age, and will for international pool money, capped at 7 million per team after Jan 15, he will need to make his fortune for awhile via endorsements. And with Yamamoto and Ohtani with the Dodgers, his marketing potential is lower than it would be elsewhere. San Diego was mentioned as a better endorsement opportunity. Interesting. And bullshit.
Next Bowden reported the since the Dodgers have 25 to 35 Japanese media folks covering the Dodgers “that level of attention “is not the best situation for a young developing pitcher”.
And lastly, he gives an advantage to San Diego because Yu Darvich “is like a godfather” to Sasaki and can “pass the baton” when Sasaki is ready”. This ignores Yamamoto and Ohtani, who are far closer in age to Sasaki, being mentors, helping the kid find his way early. Especially with language challenges.
I don’t know if we will sigh this kid or not. For the money, he’s a hugh catch.
But this guy came up with a whole new set of reasons, why not.
Perhaps Ohtani can make an argument against the perceived lack of endorsements being an impediment to signing Sasaki by introducing him to his endorsement sponsors and pushing them to also include Sasaki. I can see Sasaki in a New Balance commercial. Will he get more endorsements in LA with Ohtani, Yamamoto, and all of Japan watching them, or in San Diego? With the number of new Japanese sponsorships, there should be plenty of endorsements he will be comfortable with.
Does he need to be the face of an organization, or is he more comfortable in the background? That is probably more of question than endorsements.
Dave Roberts’ mother was native Japanese and he has some albeit limited ability to speak Japanese. That limited part might have increased given that Ohtani and Yamamoto have been with him for a year now.
Bowden js almost always wrong.
Bowden strikes me as not really a journalist (like Passan and Rosenthal) who do their research but a pundit spouting off his semi-informed perspective.
So a lot like us here, but with a better baseball resume.
I’m not worried about Sasaki. Will be happy if he comes to the Dodgers, but not bothered if he chooses another team.
With or without Sasaki, the Dodgers will be fine.
Rays will be playing at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa in 25. That is the Yankees spring training complex. It is going to cost around 55 million to fix the Trop.
Holds around 11,000 to 12,000.
Rays attendance in 2024 was 1,337,739. 16,515 average per game.
Does anyone know the dimensions
Capacity11,026 (2007–present)
Field size:
Left Field – 318 ft (97 m)
Left-Center – 399 ft (122 m)
Center Field – 408 ft (124 m)
Right-Center – 385 ft (117 m)
Right Field – 314 ft (96 m)
Surface: Grass
Thanks OD, looks like a good park for pull hitters.
Some really good stuff @FanGraphs that is pertinent to current and recent discussions.
About the MVP! Did WAR (or Ohtani) ruin MVP discussions:
From Dan Szymborski Chat:
Roki: Why haven’t I already signed with the Dodgers? Let’s not waste everyone’s time
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a whole process!
mmddyyyy: Do you think any pitchers are getting away with foreign substances?
Dan Szymborski: pitchers ALWAYS are
David Laurila and some General Managers on Hitting Coaches Vis-A-Vis Swing Coaches
Longenhagen takes a comprehensive look at current and future International players:
MLB Pipeline, one of the top amateur evaluation services, has put out a list of top prospects by age from 16-26. I was certainly not surprised to not see any Dodger prospects in the early ages. But they were well represented in Age 26, admittedly by MLB Pipeline as a little long in the tooth to still be classified as a prospect. In what could simply have been a two prospect group, the Dodgers’ River Ryan was the #1 26-year old prospect and Nick Frasso was #2.
Frasso should be ready for his MLB debut this year. But overcoming major shoulder surgeries have not been kind to quick comebacks. Just ask Hyun-jin Ryu and Julio Urías.
That got me to thinking again about comments that the Dodgers do not need significant additions to their SP because of all the pitchers coming back.
Tyler Glasnow – I have been a huge advocate for Glasnow, and I am not getting off his train now. But you need your best ostrich look not to acknowledge his creaky elbow. He has said that a mechanical change to reduce his extension a bit will help that. He says his elbow is fine and will be ready for ST after a revised throwing and work out program this winter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Is his rotator cuff fully healed? He pitched very well in the playoffs, so it appears so. But why did he all of a sudden come down with a shoulder concern? Was it the game against NYY in June?
Shohei Ohtani – Has already reported that he will not be ready at the beginning of the year to pitch.
Bobby Miller – Miller has had his two MLB seasons shortened due to shoulder soreness (referred to fatigue) at the beginning of the year. But Miller’s biggest hurdle will be his head. His arm is not a problem once that shoulder strengthens, but his game demeanor seems to be. He has been favorably compared to Walker Buehler. It sure would be nice if he could emulate Buehler’s confidence that borders on cockiness (probably crosses the line). Without any knowledge of the situation, from the easy chair, IMO Miller needs a top notch sports psychologist.
But I do agree with Watford that Miller is too talented to give up on. He is a risk. He could either be a top of the rotation SP or a bust with no tradeable value.
Tony Gonsolin – Some do not believe he should continue as a SP, and is better suited for the bullpen. He succeeded in that role as a reliever at St. Mary’s. He undoubtedly closed out more than a couple of Corbin Burnes starts.
Dustin May – May has the personality of a late inning high leverage reliever. Cocksure with amazing whiffle ball movement on his pitches. If the Dodgers do not re-sign Blake Treinen, May could slide into that slot. Even if they re-sign him, they could make a fine duo.
Clayton Kershaw – When and at what level?
Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack – At their best, they are back of the rotation types. Necessary of course, but the Dodgers try to sign a veteran to fill that role. Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton…
The best three young starters will not be ready, and only one will be pitching this year: Emmet Sheehan. River Ryan and Gavin Stone will not return until 2026.
How many feel comfortable that any of the above will have 27 starts (6-man rotation) and between 135-162 IP. Is the rotation healthy enough as it is right now, not to add to it?
IMO, the Dodgers should sign Rōki Sasaki and put forth a very good deal that includes Gavin Lux and prospects for LHSP Garrett Crochet. Sasaki should be able to make it through until Kershaw, Frasso, and Sheehan are ready. If he holds up, all the better. Crochet will be 26 this year. He is in his 2nd year arbitration and is projected to earn $2.9MM. Last year, his first year as a starter he had 32 starts, compiled 146.0 IP, which is more than any LAD pitcher, 3.58 ERA, 1.068, WHIP, a fantastic 2.69 FIP, 209 K, and 33 BB. That is 12.9 K/9 and 6.33 K/BB. Like Glasnow last year, he is a perfect candidate to trade for and extend.
That’s two potential top of the rotation arms for less $$$ than Walker Buehler. Add Adames and Teoscar with some high leverage relievers and call it a winter.
‘put forth a very good deal that includes Gavin Lux and prospects for LHSP Garrett Crochet.”
Please finish the deal, Jeff. Fill in the prospect names for me.
Miller should take advantage of the modality available from Cerecet.com.
Who might be obtained for a package of Lux, May, and Miller?
I cannot see all three being moved together. All have question marks? But how do you value a potential top shelf 2B, a potential closer, and a potential top of the rotation pitcher in a trade?
Love this!
Would love Crochet, think there’s no chance of it happening (nor Adames) but the idea and reasoning are sound.
As to the innings issue, I saw something like it elsewhere:
How about if we reverse engineeer?
162 Games
5.2 IP per Start
918 Innings
110 IP / Yamamoto
110 IP / Glasnow
110 IP / Ohtnai
90 IP / Kershaw
90 IP / Pitcher X (Sasaki, Beuhler, Kikuchi, Beiber (those are 3 FA I could see being cheap and short term)
90 IP / Miller
80 IP / Gonsolin
85 IP / Knack
85 IP / Wrobleski
75 IP / Casparius / Frasso / Some other ascending SP prospect
925 IP Total
If the Dodgers do not add any Free Agent starter outside of your Pitcher X, that is feasible. But if you do not add at least one top shelf starter in the offseason, how comfortable are you that any of those pitchers will be healthy in October. I understand pitching is a risk, and the Dodgers are set to withstand the injury bug better than any other organization in MLB (and by a lot). The Dodgers did it last year with 3 and one of them was hit and miss (Flaherty), and Yamamoto and Buehler each had a stinker. Can they do it again with a makeshift rotation and top notch bullpen? I really would not relish facing Philadelphia if they get another bat or two, and sign a couple of high leverage relievers. Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, and very soon top pitching prospect, Andrew Painter.
It has been reported that the Dodgers want a franchise type SS for the long haul. If not Adames, then who? Minnesota is making noises that they are willing to listen on Carlos Correa, but there is zero chance he will become a Dodger. CJ Abrams? I would love it, but Washington would need a massive overpay. Or should they leave it to Edman and Rojas for another year and hope that Alex Freeland is the real deal for 2026? Remember, Gavin Lux was a much better prospect at a younger age than Freeland, and with Mookie presumably moving to 2B, Lux is on his way out. SD has about 75 SS in their organization, but they are not trading to LAD.
Jackson Holliday? You think Garrett Crochet would cost too much?
Maybe Jordan Westburg who was a SS before moving to 2B because of Gunnar Henderson. Don’t get me started on the mistake of not drafting Henderson.
Bryce Turang? He is another SS that moved to 2B because of an established SS (Willy Adames) where he won both a gold glove and platinum glove. Joey Ortiz the presumptive favorite to move to SS to replace Adames?
There are just not any franchise level SS available outside of Adames.
Crochet is the odds on favorite player to be traded this winter. He is a top of the rotation LHP. If he is traded, why not to the Dodgers? He is certainly a pitcher of need for LAD.
So much there!
my innings breakdown doesn’t include any assets from a trade deadline deal, if needed that’s a resource.
as for Adames and Crochet? It’s just that history is against it. The Dodgers do not and have not paid top dollar for non-superstars. Not in the off-season and not even WRT players acquired at the deadline.
you have a good list there.
CJ Abrams? If his value is low.
Holliday or Henderson? They are superstars. I could see it when they respectively hit free agency. At that moment Taylor and Muncy will be off the books.
i could also see Westburg if his value is impacted by surplus.
I fully agree that Adames is a great fit. Trading for a young high-quality shortstops is very difficult. (Still baffles me that the Dodgers thought Lux was that kind of SS.)
Some points in Adames’ favor:
–at 29, he’s in his prime and makes the Dodgers younger as team. High quality defender with a big arm and potent bat. Also a reputation as a clubhouse leader.
–In a few years, depending how things shake out, Adames could easily shift to 3B to succeed Max or, a la Ernie Banks, to 1B to succeed Freddie.
–If Teo opts for bigger bucks elsewhere, Adames helps compensate for the lost power. (One rumor has the Dodgers considering a Santander and Tyler O’Neill if Teo departs.)
–Signing Adames would make it easier to deal with top SS prospects Freeland, J. Vargas and Morales for Crochet or other premium talent. (Let’s keep top draft pick Kellon Lindsay for a few years to see if he really is the next Trea Turner.)
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These are ask great points.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t trade for Adames.
I’m saying the Dodgers don’t. Or have not. They pursue superstars and value, independently and in the same deals.
They could break tendency! Humans are variable! I’m often wrong.
You mention a number of interesting ways to play the shortstop situation but how about just handing it permanently to Edman and going after a really good outfielder who can man centerfield and could earn 25-28 mil per year for about 6 years (same as Adames will cost)?
I wouldn’t be totally against Robert Jr. but he would be well down the list for me because of his inconsistency and injury history.
I would have zero objection to giving Edman the SS position and finding a CF. He is just not the franchise SS many are reporting that the Dodgers prefer. I like Alex Freeland, but I am not convinced he is a MLB SS for an elite team like the Dodgers. Also remember, the Dodgers could potentially lose Edman, Miggy Ro, and CT3 after next year, and Alex Freeland will be the only option. His current backup would be defensive whiz and not so good bat, Noah Miller. After that, the talent is at Low A and Rookie League. Is everybody good with that? The Dodgers can pay for a SS this year and wait for Joendry Vargas, Kellon Lindsey, and Emil Morales to emerge. But all three are also more likely to move.
Also potentially LAD will be without a 3B after 2025. There are consequences to not drafting well.
I’m thinking MiggyRo and CT3 will not be part of the Dodgers future after next year but Edman will be here as long as AF wants him here.
He’s from SoCal and it’s not exactly going to cost Yamamoto money to keep him here for another few years beyond next year.
Making him the permanent shortstop is not necessarily my preferred outcome. I would say the front office should see what’s out there in free agency and trade at both SS and CF and then plug Edman into the one they don’t fill.
Give the Guardians or Red Sox whatever they want for Kwan or Duran, although I’m not even sure that Kwan is a very good centerfielder since he’s always in left field. Is he considered a good center fielder?
Kwan has played exactly 7 games in CF in his career. He did not make any errors in those 7 games. He has played 390 in left and 20 in right.
Sold, I’m on your band wagon Jeff, now put in a call to AF, and get it done.
He always puts me on hold!!!
The balls on that guy, he doesn’t know what he is missing.
My best friend, Gary Freed passed away this morning at 77. He was born in Brooklyn and lived about 5 blocks from Ebbets Field. After they moved, he quit following them. RIP Gary, you will be missed my friend.
Sorry to hear Bear. Tough losing good friends
Very sorry Bear.
Condolences, Bear
Condolences Bear.
Thanks guys, much appreciated. I am heading out to California next month for a few weeks. His wife is not going to have a service since he has no relatives in Cali. He had been retired for 22 years, so not a lot of close friends.
Baseball America has a GREAT, but brief, look at Z. Hope ($$$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/zyhir-hopes-early-returns-thrill-dodgers/
…“He has a great swing,” Dodgers farm director Will Rhymes said. “One of the things we loved about him out of the draft and in the trade was his swing. He hits the ball really hard. He’s probably in the 100th percentile….
We’ll probably see Hope in the Spring.
Isn’t about time for the Dodgers to have a true prodigy again?
There have been some pitchers–Fernando, Kershaw, Urias–but nobody like Soto, Acuna, Chourio…
They got Hope in a trade, so he is not really a Dodger find. They draft so low in the order, most of the real top talent is gone before it gets to LA. Where they do well usually is the international market. But they have traded away the good ones so far.
I know this is a Dodgers blog, but I am a baseball fan as well. While I have no idea where they are headed, I like what LAA has done this early in the offseason.
Traded RHSP Griffin Canning for power bat Jorge Solar. Soler can help to protect Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.
They signed Kyle Hendricks as a RHSP for one year and $2.5MM.
They signed All Star catcher Travis d’Arnaud at 2 years $12MM.
They signed Swiss army knife utility infielder, Kevin Newman. Last year he started games at every infield position for Arizona. He struck out just 15.4% in 311 PA. He had a 2.2bWAR with Arizona in 2024. Kiké Hernández had a 1.3 bWAR and is 2 years older. But Newman has never played in the postseason, so Kiké has a huge advantage.
They have also picked up 1B/DH Ryan Noda off waivers from Oakland, and they have traded for utility infielder/CF Scott Kingery from Philadelphia for cash.
They are better with Kyle Hendricks and Jorge Soler than just Griffin Canning. With the young position players 1B Nolan Schanuel, SS Zach Neto, and C Logan O’Hoppe, and veterans Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward to go with future HOF OF/DH Mike Trout they are making a decent foundation. I hold out zero hope for Anthony Rendon.
Three youngsters in the rotation with veterans Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks: 24 year old Jack Kochanowicz, 25 year old Reid Detmers, and 26 year old José Soriano. They also have a potential Ace in 21 year old Caden Dana, who reached MLB at 20. 26 year old Sam Bachman is also a pitcher the team is high on.
Their 2024 1st round pick, 2B Christian Moore, hit very well at AA. The Angels love to push their draft picks, Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto, spent very minimal time in MiLB: Schanuel (22 games – 97 PA) and Neto (48 games – 217 PA).
Besides Moore, the Angels have another potential star. CF Nelson Rada spent the entire 2024 season at AA at the age of 18.
I do not see them spending big in FA (no Corbin Burnes), but I do think they will continue to add pieces. If their pitching continues to gel and Mike Trout can stay healthy, they could become a WC contender in 2025.
Angels still need to splurge on strong SP–two if possible. All the top tier guys will be looking to play for contenders. So how about the next tier?
Eovaldi? Manaea? Flaherty?…… BUEHLER?!?!
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Shocker. Shohei wins 4th consecutive Edgar Martinez Outstanding DH Award.
RIGGED!
Some interesting thoughts in here this morning.
The next Dodger prodigy. Consequences of not drafting well, reverse engineering of the pitching staff… and more. This is why I come here.
I think drafting as low as the team does every year makes it difficult to find prodigies. Difficult but not impossible. And a few players we are looking at signing come with draft implications. Draft, develop then trade them along with signing the best fit free agents looks to me the way the Dodgers do it. Having the money to do just above anything you want is sure a bonus. Yay us.
The reverse engineering idea appears to be the way the Dodgers are doing it. Nobody threw more than140 innings and the one guy that reached that mark, Gavin Stone, was lost with injury, joining several other Dodger starters on the IL for a year. The $300 million man threw 90 innings. The #1 starter, the ace, Tyler Glasnow threw 134 and was lost to the playoffs. I’ve been pimping a 6 man rotation for years now for this very reason. This rash of pitching injuries was predictable and in fact predicted. Looks to me like a 6 man rotation will not be enough. I wonder how May and Gonsolin will be used? The Dodgers started 18 different pitchers this year. 2025? Here we go again.
I like Edman used the way he was but I do prefer an everyday shortstop. Always have. Up the middle defense strength still resonates with me. Always has and always will. Can you have plus defenders at all 4 spots? You can try. Smith, Adames, Betts, Edman works for me. Robert Jr in center with Edman taking the full time play somewhere everyday utility role works for me too. That would make Kiké and/or CT3 superfluous. Lux is traded on my depth chart. To Chicago? Maybe.
Haven’t heard anything here about Cartaya. Or much about Rushing. Draft, develop, trade?
OK. Enough words for now. Thank all of you for yours.
Correa being floated as possible Dodger target for Miller plus another. Thoughts?
Correa can float to hell. Keep him off our team
Miller’s value is too low, more likely the Dodgers try to rehabilitate it and him first before moving him.
No thanks and he is far from the player he once was, injury prone lately too.
Correa is 30, an All Star and projects similar numbers if a little less than in OPS. He’s 3 years removed from Houston, but, big but, he still carries a heavy contract including $37 million next year. Gulp. There are team options down the road, in ‘29, but until then it’s $30+ million every year. He could/would be the franchise SS we’re looking for but nope, hard no for me.
Back to a 29 year old Adames.
Badger, I’ve been giving this a lot of thought. I like your 6 man rotation but it would make a seven man BP can a team survive in these times with only seven. Looking for othe opinions
Somebody correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Ohtani can be counted as a position player so we could still have a 6-man starting rotation (including Shohei) and an 8 man bullpen.
Correa has plantar fasciitis, that’s what Pujols suffered from, and never really got over, unless the twins are eating a bunch of money, they can get Adames for nearly the same yearly salary.
Adames for $37 million?