We have 4 days until the Roki Sasaki bidding gets real. It is doubtful that any agreement will come on January 15, but the IFA bonus pool for each team will become more clear.
The Dodgers have reportedly told all of the 2025 signees to wait until 2026 to sign.
At least one Dodger commitment, has turned from LAD and agreed to sign with Pittsburgh for twice the Dodgers offer. LH hitting 6’5” SS, Darell Morel, was considered the top LAD IFA prospect, even though he is not considered a top 50 IFA by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America.
It would appear that the Dodgers are going all in for Sasaki, with no evidence that the Dodgers are his first choice. If they do miss out, they also miss out on a full year of IFA prospects. Confidence or brazen arrogance?
This follows the 2024 IFA signing period where the Dodgers were expected to sign the #3 IFA prospect, CF Paulino Santana. The Dodgers were trying to hold back funds to sign Sasaki if he were to be posted for the 2024 signing period. Didn’t happen and they lost out on Paulino who is now the Rangers #10 prospect.
I know it is hard to believe, but not everyone wants to be a Dodger. I have no idea if Sasaki is one who has already made up his mind that he will be a Dodger or will not. But the Dodgers are gambling that he will (or maybe he has already committed). If he does agree to LAD, that will grab the attention of the Commissioners office and an investigation is likely.
The second favorite team to sign Sasaki, the Padres, are believed to be the favorites to sign at least two top IFA prospects: Dominican SS, Jhoan De La Cruz, and Venezuelan SS Deivid Coronil. There is no word as to whether the Padres have asked their commitments to hold off until 2026.
There are reportedly (per Baseball America) 7 teams who are still in the hunt for Sasaki:
- Boston – $6,261,600 bonus pool
- Baltimore – $6,908,600 bonus pool
- NYY – $6,261,600 bonus pool
- NYM – $6,261,600 bonus pool
- Texas – $6,261,600 bonus pool
- San Diego – $6,261,600 bonus pool
- LAD – $5,146,200 bonus pool
The Dodgers trail Boston, NYY, NYM, Texas, and San Diego by $1,115,400 and Baltimore by $1,762,400 in bonus pool funds.
NYM will drop well below the Dodgers after they are expected to sign the #2 prospect, Dominican SS Elian Peña. Beside the Padres, the Red Sox and NYY figure to sign a pair of top prospects. It is expected that all of those teams will drop below the Dodgers or just about at their level. Texas is expected to sign the #36 prospect.
Expected IFA signings:
- Boston – #28 and #45 – Last year those picks were $2,450,000
- Baltimore – #42 – Last year that pick was $1,650,000
- NYY – #15 and #25 – Last year those picks were $2,550,000
- NYM – #2 – Expected to be north of $3MM
- Texas – #36 – Last year that pick was $1,400,000
- San Diego – #41 and #48 – Last year those picks were $1,950,000
If as suspected and predicted, all of the teams believed to still be in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes, only Baltimore figures to have more remaining bonus $$$ than LAD after the projected signings.
There is nothing to stop teams like San Diego or NYY from backing off their commitments, leaving them in a marginally better position bonus wise. But as of right now, that does not seem to be the case. I doubt that NYM will back off their commitment for Dominican SS Elian Peña, who is ranked just below Sasaki.
I cannot believe that the IFA bonus would be the primary needle mover to sign Sasaki, but it does remove somewhat of an obstacle.
Footnote Comment – I have tried to properly cite references, and I hope I do not have any spelling or grammar errors. If I do, I apologize. I would really hate it if the spelling, grammar, and reference cite police would be offended. I would also like to add that I am not joking about any of this, and I do hope it passes on the “silly” meter.
Just get it over with already. Tired of all the hype and ado over this guy. If the Dodgers sign him, great. If not, then move on and let’s keep improving the team. Sign Tanner Scott, find one more outfielder with some pop and we are ready to roll.
There is nothing they can do before January 15. Maybe closer to January 23.
I understand, just venting a little. It is a little over a month until pitchers and catchers report.
Haha
You think it’s funny? Fans get tired of the waiting. Because the Dodgers are waiting for his decision, they have lost two international commitments. I don’t find that funny at all.
I think you might be taking this signing a little too seriously.
Most fans could care less.
Maybe, but I am one who does. Simply my opinion.
It’s a done deal that he’s a Dodger. Friedman’s been nurturing the relationship for years.
Agree, would be completely shocked if he is not signed by the Dodgers.
Unless he considers local government
The Padres ownership issues are a mess. It’s hard to believe Sasaki wants any part of that situation. If he wants to be the best and pitch in October, the Dodgers are his best option, hands down!
Because local governments elsewhere are simply perfecto…
I used to live about two miles from Dodger Stadium but moved from the city 25 years ago. When I was an Angeleno, city voters passed measures to tax themselves to expand the police department. Voters frustrated by traffic narrowly passed another tax to fund the Metrorail project.
I don’t recall if there were efforts to upgrade fire services–but if so, I doubt that people would tax themselves to protect against a theoretical threat.
Besides, the majority’s will often isn’t enough. With schools aging and falling apart, education construction bonds would routinely get more than 60% of the vote–but fall short of the two-thirds threshold that (I’m pretty sure) was set by Prop 13.
Obviously the firestorms in LA have exposed weaknesses in the fire-fighting infrastructure and fingers are being pointed left and right. This is as it should be.
But let’s not ignore how climate change has contributed to the extreme weather seen in LA and across the world. Hurricanes in Tennessee and western North Carolina? Anybody see that coming?
Have we ever had a political leader who took the peril of climate change seriously?
Yes!
And in fact Al Gore was the people’s choice in the 2000 election!
But, alas, the Electoral College narrowly tilted for the other guy… and so there was zero effort from Bush Administration to promote energy sources that didn’t add to climate change. Instead we had a war for oil, because of course.
And it’s been reported that 2024 was indeed the hottest year on record.
So it goes.
Prop 13. Boy do I remember that one. The state has never recovered from it.
I’ve been reading a lot about the alleged lack of water, poor leadership etc. As usual there is a lot of bad information, and deliberate misinformation, circulating. The LA fire departments were prepared to fight a wildfire in the area, but not four of them, all of which were being driven by 80-100 mph winds. No aircraft could fly in those conditions so all of those fires just raced across the landscape. And I think we should get used to the idea that weather events are now here to stay.
Climate change has nothing to do with the fact the fireman didn’t have water from the hydrants to fight the fire with. That is all on local and state government.
Water is finite. From what I’ve seen reported, the massive scope of the fire overwhelmed the resources, resulting in weak and dry hydrants.
Clearly the infrastructure has problems, and perhaps the DWP is more at fault than other agencies. Perhaps, given the reality of climate change, more should have been done to anticipate the potential of a catastrophe. That is easy to say so in retrospect–but we all seen people dismissed as Chicken Littles for gloomy climate change predictions. (It’s always easier to boost police funding after a riot, or to strengthen building codes after a destructive earthquake.)
This fire was unprecedented in LA’s history. No doubt it will lead to measures to beef up the firefighting infrastructure.
There is a legitimate political debate to be had here, but there is also a lot of BS and finger-pointing. Over at Fox News, I’ve seen blame pointed to “DEI” policies, as if a white male fire chief surely would have saved the Palisades. Meanwhile, the future felon-in-chief blames a governor he calls “Newscum” for not signing water legislation that actually never existed. What is Fox reporting about climate change causing extreme drought conditions?
Well said Duke.
So if we’re going off Dodgers talk, Jesus Christ controls the climate. This climate change BS is a money laundering hoax.
???
Interesting take Farhan. I don’t agree with a word of it but… I respect your right to express it.
So, you saying don’t put money in the collection plate as it gets passed down the aisle?
I always ask for light starch when I have my money laundered.
LOL.
“Jesus controls the weather” vs. Duke’s rant.
Choose your faith based religion.
We all know the situation in LA is intolerable. But this is not the venue for that discussion. Lets stick to baseball guys. I appreciate the sentiments. I am a native too and I remember all that stuff. But I also remember the Watts riots and the Rodney King mess.
Ok.
I think Roki signs with the Dodgers. In the long run it will advance his career. He can learn from the best, he won’t have to carry the team, and who know, he could be the ace of the staff by year 3.
All of that makes sense….
There remains the chance that he simply doesn’t want to be in Shohei’s shadow–that he wants to establish a separate identity and ‘brand.”
The Anti-Ohtani Effect?
Come midseason, half of the six-man rotation could be the top pitchers to come out of Japan… with all due respect to Mr. Nomo and Mr. Darvish.
The others could be Glasnow, Gonsolin, Miller, Knack, May… Kershaw…Sheehan….
Geez… I forgot to mention Snell!!
Adding Sasaki should lead to another trade, right?
From how I understand it the amount of money teams have available isn’t he mos important criteria for Sasaki, especially since a team like the Dodgers could sell how much endorsement money they could lead him to. I’ve heard on mlb radio he wants a winner and a team that can help him develop into a hof pitcher.
Pretty sure he won’t be signing with the Sacramento A’s…
That is a given. I cannot imagine many pitchers are going to enjoy pitching there.
HOF announcement 9 days away. At this point I would say Ichiro and Sabathia are locks with Beltran and Billy Wagner barely in or just missing the cut.
With Beltran’s part in the 2017 WS cheating he’s no different than any of the 1919 White Sox. He should NEVER be allowed to even visit the HOF, let alone get elected into it.
Braves signed Garrett Cooper to a minor league contract. Padres hired Scott Servais as a special assistant. Santander and Flaherty open to short term deals.
I figure you gotta take the chance, right?
You miss out on IFA signings for a single year, it’s probably not going to severely impact the team nor its fortunes.
For the upside of Sasaki, I think it’s more than worth the risk.
The Dodgers can give Sasaki the best chance at winning, top of the line pitcher development, and coaching. He has a good chance for endorsements, but not as good as if he goes to NY, or if he is someone’s #1 somewhere, we’ll see if he wants to be the top dog, or if he wants to have a chance to win a WS almost every year.
From what I read, he wants to be the top dog, not only on his team but for the entire MLB.
Sounds like Andrew believes he can accomplish that, so if Sasaki himself believes it, why should it bother him to come here since he would ultimately become the best pitcher on the best team. The ultimate!
By fiat? No. He’s a freaking rookie. He should accept the challenge of earning that status.
Like I said earlier, by year 3 he could be the team ace. If he wants to be the ace now, it’s going to be on a team that won’t challenge the Dodgers.
He will sign with the Dodgers. It’s in his best interest to do so.
Nothing wrong with a pitcher that thinks he’s going to prove he’s the best pitcher in the league, hope he comes here.
I think you missed the word “ultimately” in my comment, as in 3 years from now.
No, I read that. I also read “From what I read, he wants to be the top dog”, and just figured it was what he wanted now.
I understand each world series winning players earned a $455,000 plus bonus. Roki, could get a couple of these that some of these also rans courting him, are far from getting even close. Oh BTW, has he noticed the nice contracts that LA are able to dish out to some of their really talented players ? I’m sure he and has people have considered all these details….
The amount differs every year, depending on attendance and other things.
Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook is on the way.
As we wait, we are teased with thirteen (13) players who have graded out at 80 for one skill or another. Last year, for reference, there were 18 such players.
As for Dodgers:
George and Lindsay for Speed.
Yean for Fastball
Oh, and at Dodger Digest Bruce Kuntz’ first and second team of prospects is worth a read:
Just read that, contrary to various reports, the Angels DID NOT make a larger bid for Hye-Seong Kim than the Dodgers did. So says Jeffrey Fletcher, longtime baseball writer for the OC Register.
At any rate, I’m very glad the Dodgers got Kim, in part because he won a KBO Gold Glove at SS before shifting to 2B, where he would win two more Gold Gloves. (The KBO honor is not just for fielding, but overall play. But we know that Kim plays high-quality defense.)
While I’m optimistic about Mookie at SS, it’s nice having Edman, Rojas and now Kim as SS options too. Taylor too–but he’d be very rusty.
I look forward to our up the middle defense, including whoever it is that wins the centerfield job. I’m assuming it will be Edman but there’s still time for things to evolve.
As you know, if it were me I’d start with Kim at short. He clearly has more range than a 32 year old Betts. I’m not sure of Kim’s arm over there, but Mookie’s arm didn’t convince me either. If it’s Betts at short I will support as well as question the decision while I marvel at the athleticism around the bag. No matter how it shakes out, it’s going to be fun. If I still lived in Arizona, I’d be on the back fields again watching middle infield practice. I do miss those days.
For all of you reformed Roberts haters. It’s the coaching stupid!
Lux pretty much said the same thing during an interview on MLB.TV this morning. He said LA is great on giving a player great preparation information. He also said he learned a lot from just watching Freddie Freeman hit.
This has been danced around on this board and others but Will Sammon and Andy McCullough look at the entropic nature caused by Sasaki’s posting and late signing date. ($$$$)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6056989/2025/01/13/roki-sasaki-international-market-chaos/
… The wait is causing clubs to maneuver in atypical ways so close to signing day, either by delaying commitments with other prospects, completely reneging on big-money agreements or weighing trades involving international cash…
The Padres informed some players who were expected to be part of their upcoming signing class that they were free to seek other deals…The Dodgers have told players to consider signing as part of next year’s class if the team lands Sasaki and can’t acquire enough international bonus pool money via trade to honor their handshake agreements…
Question now is do the Dodgers sign any international players by the 15th or do they wait for Sasaki to make up his mind. They have lost two commits already.
Edited. you answered my question in your comment below.
Mike Petriello looks at if a 6-man rotation will become more commonplace and, if so, why.
https://www.mlb.com/news/why-more-mlb-teams-are-using-6-man-rotations
Noted this as it impact the Dodgers:
For example: When Willie Mays’ 1954 Giants won the ring with a World Series sweep, they played a total of 158 games…giving them 193 days off before the next year’s April 13 opener.
The 2024 champion Dodgers, however, had to play 178 games, with a month of expanded playoffs atop a 162-game regular season, and they’ll get only 139 days off…
Put it this way: Those 1954 Giants threw 1,427 total innings. The 2024 Dodgers threw 1,582 2/3, and they’ll get 54 fewer days off to recover from them.
Good thing the Dodgers used about twenty starters last year.
Finally, for this morning, this is an interesting graphic:
https://x.com/Brooks_Gate/status/1878507489416602074
And everyone thought that Steve Cohen was the big bad wolf who would ruin MLB. Turns out it was the Dodgers.
That’s an interesting interpretation.
Read Scott’s tribute to his friend and former contributor to his site. Very moving and heartfelt. RIP Oscar Martinez.
Will Roki Sasaki become a Dodger? Don’t know.
Will Roki Sasaki become a Giant? He’s just told him the answer to that question is “No”.
Yankees now out also.
I still think he’ll be a Dodger but the significance of Yu Darvish as his idol means Sasaki just might sign with the Padres.
We’ll know by next Monday who he has selected. Go Dodgers!
And now the Mets are out.
I could be giving Sasaki’s agent (Wolf) too much credit here but it seems as though he’s trying to give teams advance notice so that they can go ahead with their international signings on Wednesday if they won’t be getting Roki.
Him = Buster?
Joke?
per Passan and Rosenthal:
The finalists for Japanese star right-hander Roki Sasaki are the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays, sources tell ESPN. Sasaki will decide on his team by the closing of his posting window Jan. 23.
Nope, reported on MLB.TV about an hour ago.
Once again we have to be on private plane alerts to Toronto!
Per Ben Badler:
The Dodgers have lost another potential Jan. 15 signing.
The White Sox flipped Orlando Patiño, a 6-foot-2 outfielder originally set to sign with LA when the signing period opened.
And, per Josh Thomas:
Teilon Serrano, the top teenaged IFA from the 2025 class who was linked to the Dodgers, has deleted the Dodgers from his IG profile
Ignore