On January 3, 2025, the Dodgers signed KBO middle infielder Hyeseong Kim to a three year contract for $12.5MM. The Dodgers have two club option years that could raise the contract amount to $22MM.
The whispers were deafening. Gavin Lux’s days as a LAD were numbered. Three days later, Lux was traded to Cincinnati for 2024. The return was Mike Sirota, Cincinnati’s 3rd round pick in 2024 out of Northeastern. He entered the spring season as a first-round talent and arguable top 10 overall pick but had a poor platform season, hitting below . 300 for the first time in his career and struggling to repeat the power surge he managed as a sophomore. Thus a 3rd round pick.
The Dodgers drafted Sirota in the 16th round in 2021, but he chose to honor his commitment to Northeastern. The Dodgers did their homework for two drafts, and believe they have a potential CF prospect. The Dodgers who are often devoid of draft picks also acquired a compensating balance pick which turns out to be the 41st pick in the 2025 draft. The Dodgers now have the 40th and 41st picks in the July draft. Based on prior years’ drafts, do I feel comfortable that the Dodgers will get a player as good as Gavin Lux? Track record is not promising.
The negative comments about Gavin Lux were very prominent. And yet a fan base who says the Dodgers need to get younger saw many support the trade. For the record, Hyeseong Kim is 14 months younger than Lux. Then again, Kim did not make the LAD roster, while 3 other much older utility players, Chris Taylor (34), Kiké Hernández (33), and Miguel Rojas (36) made the active roster.
We learned early on that Tito Francona wanted Lux to play LF for Cincinnati. Lux has played LF before, and it wasn’t always pretty. AF/BG believing Lux was not a 2B, and did not want to bring up Dalton Rushing or Ryan Ward (both LH hitters) to play LF. Instead they paid $17MM for LH hitting LF Michael Conforto. Conforto is the poster child for the Dodgers preferring veteran players over younger unproven prospects, even homegrown prospects.
Don’t get me wrong, I was for the Conforto signing. And I still believe Conforto will find his stroke. Who will ultimately have the better offensive numbers for the year, we will have to wait and see. For right now, I am more than leaning to Lux.
In addition, Conforto is not a good defensive LF, and not as good per defensive metrics as Lux. Both Conforto and Lux have a +1 DRS, Lux has -2 OAA (8th percentile) while Conforto has a -3 (4th percentile). Lux is in the 95th percentile for his arm, while Conforto is in the 78th percentile.
How much better would the bottom 3 or 4 batters in the LAD lineup if Lux were there? Lux did very well batting 9th for LAD. Shohei had more RBI opportunities with Lux batting 9th than Andy Pages has provided this year. Do you think Lux’s fifth-in-National League .419 on-base percentage would be nice in the Dodger nine-hole? Certainly better than Pages’ .274 OBP (good for 67th). Would Lux have duplicated that with LAD? We will never know.
I like the Sirota acquisition, but I am a little dismayed that while he is thus far showing excellent offensive skills in the California League, that he is still in the California League. He is slashing .343/.425/.571/.996. He has 7 XBH in his 12 hits. He has struck out 20% of his plate appearances and walked 10%. His XBH did not include a HR. He is a below average power bat, so I do not expect Sirota to show much raw power. Doubles and triple power? Sure.
Of course, Sirota needs an opening at Great Lakes. How about the Dodgers promote Zyhir Hope to AA.
That would open a spot for Sirota on the Great Lakes roster. Maybe it is not so bad being aggressive with the players and taking a chance to push them.
Hyeseong Kim is showing some signs of offensive life in the very hitter friendly PCL, but unless there is an injury, it sure does not appear that the Dodgers will make the changes to get Kim to LAD. Kim does not have the offensive number in AAA that Lux has at MLB. But Kim is needed more for his defense. That would work as long as the other 8 hitters were producing. They are not…yet.
Then there is another OKC player who just might warrant a longer look and potential promotion to LAD…SS/3B Alex Freeland.
Here Alex is with a play on a sacrifice bunt while playing 3B:
We will not know if the long term advantage of this trade will be with LAD or Cincinnati for several years. But I think it is clear that the 2025 Dodgers would have been better with Lux than without.
Lux’s time here was done. He’s back home in the Midwest with a fresh start in a smaller fish tank. If he were still here I believe we would see more of the same. I wish him well, to a point.
As you say Kim’s value is defense at several positions and speed. If he can OPS at or near league average he is an asset. I expect him to do so eventually.
“How about the Dodgers promote Zyhir Hope to AA.”
In a word, hell yes.
Freeland. He’s blocked. He needs to play every day and that ain’t happening in LA. We may see him later but unless someone is sent packing his time is ‘26.
I liked Gavn, but thought he under-performed as a Dodger. I was not really surprised when he was traded, but I was surprised when with Kim on the roster, they re-signed Kike. Made the bench too RH heavy and Kike has never been a great regular season guy.
Lux hit the sac fly. I give him that.
Two factors, I think, prompted the Dodgers to deal Lux.
First is the likelihood that Mookie will in due course take over 2B. (He’d be there now if he hadn’t asked to play SS.)
Second is that Lux had proven that he lacks the UT chops of guys like Kike, Taylor and especially Edman.
While we tend to frame this question as a choice between Lux and Kim, we shouldn’t ignore Edman. The Dodgers had coveted him and rewarded him with a multiyear deal.
As a lefty-swinging platoon second baseman, Lux may be close to Edman’s equal—high praise considering that Edman won a gold glove at 2B. But Edman is a far more valuable player who is in the lineup every day.
Kim is making progress in OKC. So is Freeland. But it will probably take an injury before either is summoned to LA.
No doubt Taylor is the 26th man on the roster. Even so, he’s seeing action as a pinch runner and a late defensive replacement for Conforto. He also did some pinch-running for Lux during the playoffs.
BTW, I’m not pessimistic at all about the return for Lux. Sirota is another guy the Dodgers had coveted, and the draft pick could be a winner. Far too early to judge which team “won” this deal.
A little context: the Dodgers landed both Lux and Will Smith in the 2016 draft. Lux was the high schooler chosen with the 20th pick, and Smith was the Louisville catcher chosen at 32–which was far ahead of his 110th position in one prospect ranking.
Any fan who reviews that first round today, I think, would conclude that Smith was actually the most successful player chosen–and that Lux has out-performed most of the others. A damn fine draft.
Over the years the Dodgers have made some poor choices in the draft, but the track record is pretty good. Sirota plus a Player To Be Drafted Later seems like a decent return for a platoon second baseman who maybe should have been given a chance to play left field.
Thoughts on this team after a turbulent week:
Being in the coaching profession for longer than I should have (high school and NAIA universities) the pay is awful. I’ve seen more than a couple of athletes coming off a major surgery. While some never came back (usually because they didn’t rehab hard) most were not productive until the second year after the layoff. I wish we kept Lux at least another year. Of course there might be underlying reasons that we don’t know.
Bear, since you seemed to be the guy that does former players, I have a suggestion, Gentlemen Al Downing. Some U.S. remember him only as the pitcher that gave up the homer to Aaron, but Downing had a great career. When I was a youngster my brothers and Dad were in KC for a A’s-Yankees game. We were staying in the same hotel as the Yankees. Downing was hanging out in the lobby, he let us sit down with him and we visited for sometime. I instantly became a Downing fan and was elated when he became a Dodger.
I think Lux was worth keeping at least 1 more year to see if he came around even more in year 2 after injury. Looks like he is. Conforto is a waste in LF. Truly believe Lux could have played as well defensively out there and hit better. This is just another example of management coveting the veteran player they don’t have vs valuing the young talent already within the organization. I hope Lux plays so well that maybe he breaks AF of this line of thinking. (I think he will)
I think we all agree that Rojas has been an awesome infield defender and probably still is. He has the ability to as a player to help younger players in ways that coaches can’t due to players being more comfortable talking with a fellow player. Rojas last year made good contact and was an offensive asset. He might have more trade value than Taylor or Kike’ who play both infield and outfield.
A younger team that is fighting for a playoff spot or even a Division championship could use a player like Rojas. Rojas is the guy I would include in a trade package that would open a spot for Freeland. I would put Muncy on the Dodger bench and Freeland at third. Max becomes the left bat on the bench and maybe he should as a bench player start preparing to be the backup player for both first and third.
I think Betts is looking better and better at short.
Feduccia is pounding the ball. A lefty bat on the bench and a third catcher for emergencies and a guy that could also backup first base.
IMO, Alex Freeland is ready for MLB. It is not that Alex is not ready, it is because who he plays for. Nick Kurtz, who just turned 22 is making his MLB debut today. Jacob Wilson was 22 when he made his MLB debut last year. I fully acknowledge that both Kurtz and Wilson play for the A’s and not the Dodgers. But Kristian Campbell, who plays for Boston, also proves he is ready. All are younger than Freeland, and all were drafted at least a year after Freeland. Kurtz has 32 MiLB games and he is ready now. Jacob Wilson had 79 MiLB games and he was ready last year. Kristian Campbell had 137 MiLB games. Both Wilson and Campbell are raking at MLB. Yes…so far.
Kurtz (2024) and Wilson (2023) were first round picks, but Campbell was a 4th round compensation pick (2023). The Dodgers passed on Campbell for CF Kendall George (A+), 3B Jake Gelof (A+ IL), RHP Brady Smith (has not thrown a pitch since drafted), LHP Wyatt Crowell (A+).
IMO Alex Freeland, Dalton Rushing and Hyeseong Kim would all be in MLB if they were not playing in the LAD organization. There is little doubt in my mind that Freeland could be the NYY 3B. Would they all succeed? Don’t know, but they deserve the chance to prove one way or the other.
I would personally pitch around Kyle Tucker this series. He is by far their most dangerous hitter.
Lux was just never productive with the Dodgers. He was a great minor league player, but it just never translated into success with the big club. It could have been a number of issues. Maybe it was the injury and surgery. Maybe he just never adjusted to major league pitching. Maybe it was poor batted ball luck. Maybe he just sucked? Whatever the case Lux had just one above average season offensively in his time in LA, with very little power, and that was over 1,000 plate appearances at the major league level. Maybe a change in scenery will help him, and he’ll thrive in Cincy.
Sometimes it just doesnt work out and you have to move on.
May just did not have it tonight. Dodgers again totally reliant on home runs to score. Nice throw by Pages to get the runner at the plate.
Ohtani still swings at way too many pitches that are balls out of hand. Especially against LHP.
OT playoff hockey is the best
Nice comeback, but relievers having a hard time keeping the ball in the park lately. May gave up 7 runs. Will Smith is playing about as well as he ever has. Pages might be waking up a little, 2 hits tonight so far. Mookie’s BA down to .231. Very un-Mookie like.
Scott coming in for the 9th, trying to nail down save #9.
Blown save, 10-10 in the 9th with 2 out. Weird game. Smith, Muncy and Hernandez due up in the 10th. Smith hitting .356, the other three behind him, Muncy, .183, Kike, .130, Page, .179. Smith ground out moving Edman to third, Muncy strikes out swinging, Conforto bats for Kike. They lose this game; it is all on them.
Unacceptable!!
Horrible and deflating loss……….
Bobby Miller pitched 5 innings for OKC tonight, he got the win. He allowed 2 hits and 2 runs, but he walked 5 and struck out just 3. Rushing hit his second homer of the year. Kershaw pitched 3 innings for Tulsa in their 9-7 loss. He gave up 1 run on 4 hits and a walk, he struck out 4. Great Lakes won 9-3. Wagner and Thompson homered. Hope was 1-5. Inland Empire beat Rancho, 10-4. Rancho had just 5 hits.
Encouraging note about Freeland in mlb.com:
Alex Freeland: 63.9 percent hard-hit rate
Hard-hit rate is defined as percentage of batted-ball events at or above 95 mph exit velocity, meaning more than three-fifths of the ball the Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect is putting in play for Triple-A Oklahoma City are scorchers. That’s interesting coming from a switch-hitter with what was considered average pop coming into 2025. Freeland doesn’t have the upper-tier top EVs that Anthony does — he’s maxed out at 109.5 mph so far — and his strikeout rate has crept back up to 26.5 percent. But when he gets bat to ball, it tends to be loud contact, and his 11 doubles in 21 games speak to that.