This is going to be a battle of the teams’ strengths in the 121st edition of the MLB World Series: Dodgers Starting Pitching vs. Blue Jays Bats. The adage is that good pitching beats good hitting. That is not what happened against the Mariners, but that pitching staff was worn out. The Dodgers rotation is in peak form.
The Dodgers and Blue Jays played 3 times in LA this summer. In Game 1, Clayton Kershaw bested Max Scherzer. Toronto’s sole run was a double by Bo Bichette and a single by Addison Barger against Kershaw. The Dodgers scored 2 of Scherzer from a Mookie Betts 2-run HR. They would later score 3 off LHRP Brendon Little for the 5-1 win.
- Max Scherzer – 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
- Clayton Kershaw – 6.0 IP, 7 hits, 1 run, 1 BB, 4 K
In the 2nd game, the Dodgers scored three runs off Chris Bassitt, thanks to a Max Muncy 2-run HR, and a Shohei Ohtani solo HR. They would later put up 6 more runs against RHRP Yariel Rodríguez and RHRP Seranthony Domínguez. In his 2nd start returning from the IL, Blake Snell completed 5.0 shutout innings. With a 9-0 lead Jack Dreyer surrendered a solo HR to Ernie Clement for the Blue Jays sole run.
- Chris Bassitt – 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 HR
- Yariel Rodríguez – 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 4 runs, 1 BB, 1 HBP
- Seranthony Domínguez – 0.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 BB, 2 K
- Blake Snell – 5.0 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 BB, 10 K
In game 3, Tyler Glasnow left the game in the 6th with a 3-2 lead. The Dodgers scored 3 runs off LHP Eric Lauer, 2 from solo HRs from Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. They would score a 3rd run from a Miggy Ro double, and Mookie single. Anthony Banda relieved Glas in the 6th and got the one out. Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius pitched a scoreless 7th. Blake Treinen entered the 8th and surrendered 2 runs and the lead. Both runs were solo HRs (Vlad Jr. and Addison Barger) The Dodgers tied it in the bottom of the 8th on 4 walks. Alex Vesia entered in the 9th and gave up a solo HR to Clement. Treinen got a blown save and Vesia got the loss.
- Eric Lauer – 3.0 IP, 6 hits, 3 runs, 4, BB, 4 K, 2 BB
- Tyler Glasnow – 5.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 4 BB, 8 K
The Blue Jays will face off against 2 SP that they faced this year, and did not do particularly well against: Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers faced 1 Blue Jays starter, Scherzer, also with limited success.
Dodgers Rotation:
- Blake Snell (L)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
- Tyler Glasnow (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (R)
Blue Jays Rotation:
- Trey Yesavage (R)
- Kevin Gausman (R)
- Max Scherzer (R)
- Shane Bieber (R)
Snell has 8 starts in Toronto and has pitched well (2.63 ERA in 37.2 IP). Ohtani does have 1 start in Toronto and it was stellar. He threw 7.0 scoreless innings, 2 hits, 1 BB, 9 K.
This is more than a slight advantage for the Dodgers. However, the Blue Jays starters are not chopped liver. I am very interested to see how young Trey Yesavage does against the Dodgers. Gausman and Scherzer have both pitched well against the Dodgers in the past, but both have losing records against LAD. Bieber has 1 start and 6.1 IP allowing 7 hits and 3 runs (2 earned).
While the Dodgers SP is superior, the relief box above may indicate a slight advantage for Toronto. Both teams had 4 save opportunities. Toronto converted 2 of the 4, while LAD converted all 4 of their opportunities. But Roki Sasaki is a difference maker, so the I have to give LAD a slight advantage for relievers as well.
Primary position players and their Post Season stats:
Catcher:
- Toronto – Alejandro Kirk – .222/.286/.467/.753, 3 HR, 4 BB, 7 K
- LAD – Will Smith – .286/.375/.286/.661, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K
Smith is coming back from a broken hand. Smith says his hand is fully healed. He was just starting to get back in baseball shape during the NLCS, but his overall 2025 body of work gives him an advantage over Kirk.
Advantage – Dodgers
First Base:
- Toronto – Vlad Guerrero Jr. – .442/.510/.930/1.440, 6 HR, 6 BB, 3 K
- LAD – Freddie Freeman – .231/.333/.410/.743, 1 HR, 5 BB, 11 K
This is a clear advantage for Vlad Jr. over Freddie. But this is the WS. Freddie has hit safely in all 11 career WS games. .310/.362/810/1.172. He has hit a HR in 6 of his last 7 WS games, and has an RBI in straight games.
Advantage – Blue Jays (Okay, pretty easy decision)
Second Base:
- Toronto – Isiah Kiner-Falefa – .238/.238/.333/.571, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
- LAD – Tommy Edman – .286/.306/.486/.792, 2 HR, 1 HR, 1 BB, 12 K
Kiner-Falefa is a good platoon infielder. He would not be playing if Bichette was healthy enough to play SS. Edman is a GG 2B who seemingly is wakes up in the playoffs.
Advantage – Dodgers
Short Stop:
Bo Bichette says he will return for the WS, but he is not expected to be playing any SS.
- Toronto – Andrés Giménez – .263/.317/.447/.764, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
- LAD – Mookie Betts – .293/.370/.439/.809, 0 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Both SS are plus defensively. Mookie is headed for Cooperstown, and is a far superior offensive player over Giménez. His early/mid-season slump appears to be behind him.
Advantage – Dodgers
Third Base:
- Toronto – Ernie Clement – .429/.444/.619/1.063, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
- LAD – Max Muncy – .214/.389/.357/.746, 1 HR, 7 BB, 6 K
Toronto has no LHSP, and only 3 LHRP, so Max should be ready to go. However, Clement has been a stud in the playoffs. Admittedly, Clement is one of my favorite non LAD players. 2 of Clement’s 9 HR came against LAD pitching. Will the Dodgers SP stifle Clement? Clement had a 95 OPS+ during the season while Max had a 136 OPS+. While this may not be as clear cut, Clement has had a better (very good) post season, while Max has had a better year.
Advantage – Dodgers
Left Field:
- Toronto – Nathan Lukes – .333/.381/.410/.791, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
- LAD – Kiké Hernández – .306/.375/.417/.792, 0 HR, 4 BB, 9 K
Lukes has had a very good post season, but I am not going to bet against October Kiké.
Advantage – Dodgers
Center Field:
- Toronto – Daulton Varsho – .273/.304/.500/.804, 2 HR, 2 BB, 12 K
- LAD – Andy Pages – .086/.135/.114/.249, 0 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
This is a BIG EASY for me. If the Dodgers cannot get Ceddanne Rafaela from Boston (and they can’t), then Varsho should be #1 on AF’s list. Varsho is a GG CF. Varsho had a superior OPS and OPS+ to Pages in 2025. Varsho is clearly having a far superior postseason compared to Pages.
Advantage – Blue Jays
Right Field:
- Toronto – Addison Barger – .286/.375/.514/.889, 2 HR, 5 BB, 7 K
- LAD – Teoscar Hernández – .268/.302/.585/.887, 4 HR, 2 BB, 11 K
This is a fairly close comparison. They are having comparable post seasons, after having a comparable regular season. But Barger is the superior defensive player, and therefore gets the nod.
Advantage – Blue Jays
Designated Hitter:
- Toronto – George Springer – .239/.321/.609/.930, 4 HR, 5 BB, 11 K
- LAD – Shohei Ohtani – .220/.333/.634/.967, 5 HR, 7 BB, 17 K
There is no question that Ohtani strikes out way too much. Did he figure something out in NLCS Game 4? Springer is about as clutch as can be. Ohtani is going to be facing a lot of RHP, so that should give him a huge advantage to facing tough LHP. I think Ohtani may have unlocked something when he faced live BP.
Advantage – Dodgers
Toronto led MLB in contact rate at 80.5%. Dodger starters have a MLB best whiff rate of 39.4%. Who wins this battle.
Both teams boast an impressive defense by finishing the regular season with above .984 fielding percentages. Toronto made 18 more errors, and 16 fewer DRS, per the Fielding Bible.
Advantage – Dodgers
Both teams will fight thru the end of 9. Dodgers and Blue Jays led MLB in comeback wins, including post season (52).
This will be the 5th time that a team that swept the Championship Series faces a team that played 7. The team that played 7 won the four previous such meetings.
IMO, the Dodgers beat the trend and win this in LA. The Dodgers are 9-1 in the postseason and if it were not for a rare off day for Yamamoto, they could be 10-0. I think the LAD starting pitching dominates to a sweep. Regardless, I do not think it goes back Toronto and LAD will be throwing another parade.
Why would Toronto trade Varsho?