This is going to be a battle of the teams’ strengths in the 121st edition of the MLB World Series: Dodgers Starting Pitching vs. Blue Jays Bats. The adage is that good pitching beats good hitting. That is not what happened against the Mariners, but that pitching staff was worn out. The Dodgers rotation is in peak form.
The Dodgers and Blue Jays played 3 times in LA this summer. In Game 1, Clayton Kershaw bested Max Scherzer. Toronto’s sole run was a double by Bo Bichette and a single by Addison Barger against Kershaw. The Dodgers scored 2 of Scherzer from a Mookie Betts 2-run HR. They would later score 3 off LHRP Brendon Little for the 5-1 win.
- Max Scherzer – 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
- Clayton Kershaw – 6.0 IP, 7 hits, 1 run, 1 BB, 4 K
In the 2nd game, the Dodgers scored three runs off Chris Bassitt, thanks to a Max Muncy 2-run HR, and a Shohei Ohtani solo HR. They would later put up 6 more runs against RHRP Yariel Rodríguez and RHRP Seranthony Domínguez. In his 2nd start returning from the IL, Blake Snell completed 5.0 shutout innings. With a 9-0 lead Jack Dreyer surrendered a solo HR to Ernie Clement for the Blue Jays sole run.
- Chris Bassitt – 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 HR
- Yariel Rodríguez – 0.1 IP, 2 hits, 4 runs, 1 BB, 1 HBP
- Seranthony Domínguez – 0.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 runs, 2 BB, 2 K
- Blake Snell – 5.0 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 BB, 10 K
In game 3, Tyler Glasnow left the game in the 6th with a 3-2 lead. The Dodgers scored 3 runs off LHP Eric Lauer, 2 from solo HRs from Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. They would score a 3rd run from a Miggy Ro double, and Mookie single. Anthony Banda relieved Glas in the 6th and got the one out. Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius pitched a scoreless 7th. Blake Treinen entered the 8th and surrendered 2 runs and the lead. Both runs were solo HRs (Vlad Jr. and Addison Barger) The Dodgers tied it in the bottom of the 8th on 4 walks. Alex Vesia entered in the 9th and gave up a solo HR to Clement. Treinen got a blown save and Vesia got the loss.
- Eric Lauer – 3.0 IP, 6 hits, 3 runs, 4, BB, 4 K, 2 BB
- Tyler Glasnow – 5.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 4 BB, 8 K
The Blue Jays will face off against 2 SP that they faced this year, and did not do particularly well against: Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers faced 1 Blue Jays starter, Scherzer, also with limited success.
Dodgers Rotation:
- Blake Snell (L)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
- Tyler Glasnow (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (R)
Blue Jays Rotation:
- Trey Yesavage (R)
- Kevin Gausman (R)
- Max Scherzer (R)
- Shane Bieber (R)
Snell has 8 starts in Toronto and has pitched well (2.63 ERA in 37.2 IP). Ohtani does have 1 start in Toronto and it was stellar. He threw 7.0 scoreless innings, 2 hits, 1 BB, 9 K.
This is more than a slight advantage for the Dodgers. However, the Blue Jays starters are not chopped liver. I am very interested to see how young Trey Yesavage does against the Dodgers. Gausman and Scherzer have both pitched well against the Dodgers in the past, but both have losing records against LAD. Bieber has 1 start and 6.1 IP allowing 7 hits and 3 runs (2 earned).
While the Dodgers SP is superior, the relief box above may indicate a slight advantage for Toronto. Both teams had 4 save opportunities. Toronto converted 2 of the 4, while LAD converted all 4 of their opportunities. But Roki Sasaki is a difference maker, so the I have to give LAD a slight advantage for relievers as well.
Primary position players and their Post Season stats:
Catcher:
- Toronto – Alejandro Kirk – .222/.286/.467/.753, 3 HR, 4 BB, 7 K
- LAD – Will Smith – .286/.375/.286/.661, 0 HR, 3 BB, 10 K
Smith is coming back from a broken hand. Smith says his hand is fully healed. He was just starting to get back in baseball shape during the NLCS, but his overall 2025 body of work gives him an advantage over Kirk.
Advantage – Dodgers
First Base:
- Toronto – Vlad Guerrero Jr. – .442/.510/.930/1.440, 6 HR, 6 BB, 3 K
- LAD – Freddie Freeman – .231/.333/.410/.743, 1 HR, 5 BB, 11 K
This is a clear advantage for Vlad Jr. over Freddie. But this is the WS. Freddie has hit safely in all 11 career WS games. .310/.362/810/1.172. He has hit a HR in 6 of his last 7 WS games, and has an RBI in straight games.
Advantage – Blue Jays (Okay, pretty easy decision)
Second Base:
- Toronto – Isiah Kiner-Falefa – .238/.238/.333/.571, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
- LAD – Tommy Edman – .286/.306/.486/.792, 2 HR, 1 HR, 1 BB, 12 K
Kiner-Falefa is a good platoon infielder. He would not be playing if Bichette was healthy enough to play SS. Edman is a GG 2B who seemingly is wakes up in the playoffs.
Advantage – Dodgers
Short Stop:
Bo Bichette says he will return for the WS, but he is not expected to be playing any SS.
- Toronto – Andrés Giménez – .263/.317/.447/.764, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
- LAD – Mookie Betts – .293/.370/.439/.809, 0 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Both SS are plus defensively. Mookie is headed for Cooperstown, and is a far superior offensive player over Giménez. His early/mid-season slump appears to be behind him.
Advantage – Dodgers
Third Base:
- Toronto – Ernie Clement – .429/.444/.619/1.063, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
- LAD – Max Muncy – .214/.389/.357/.746, 1 HR, 7 BB, 6 K
Toronto has no LHSP, and only 3 LHRP, so Max should be ready to go. However, Clement has been a stud in the playoffs. Admittedly, Clement is one of my favorite non LAD players. 2 of Clement’s 9 HR came against LAD pitching. Will the Dodgers SP stifle Clement? Clement had a 95 OPS+ during the season while Max had a 136 OPS+. While this may not be as clear cut, Clement has had a better (very good) post season, while Max has had a better year.
Advantage – Dodgers
Left Field:
- Toronto – Nathan Lukes – .333/.381/.410/.791, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K
- LAD – Kiké Hernández – .306/.375/.417/.792, 0 HR, 4 BB, 9 K
Lukes has had a very good post season, but I am not going to bet against October Kiké.
Advantage – Dodgers
Center Field:
- Toronto – Daulton Varsho – .273/.304/.500/.804, 2 HR, 2 BB, 12 K
- LAD – Andy Pages – .086/.135/.114/.249, 0 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
This is a BIG EASY for me. If the Dodgers cannot get Ceddanne Rafaela from Boston (and they can’t), then Varsho should be #1 on AF’s list. Varsho is a GG CF. Varsho had a superior OPS and OPS+ to Pages in 2025. Varsho is clearly having a far superior postseason compared to Pages.
Advantage – Blue Jays
Right Field:
- Toronto – Addison Barger – .286/.375/.514/.889, 2 HR, 5 BB, 7 K
- LAD – Teoscar Hernández – .268/.302/.585/.887, 4 HR, 2 BB, 11 K
This is a fairly close comparison. They are having comparable post seasons, after having a comparable regular season. But Barger is the superior defensive player, and therefore gets the nod.
Advantage – Blue Jays
Designated Hitter:
- Toronto – George Springer – .239/.321/.609/.930, 4 HR, 5 BB, 11 K
- LAD – Shohei Ohtani – .220/.333/.634/.967, 5 HR, 7 BB, 17 K
There is no question that Ohtani strikes out way too much. Did he figure something out in NLCS Game 4? Springer is about as clutch as can be. Ohtani is going to be facing a lot of RHP, so that should give him a huge advantage to facing tough LHP. I think Ohtani may have unlocked something when he faced live BP.
Advantage – Dodgers
Toronto led MLB in contact rate at 80.5%. Dodger starters have a MLB best whiff rate of 39.4%. Who wins this battle.
Both teams boast an impressive defense by finishing the regular season with above .984 fielding percentages. Toronto made 18 more errors, and 16 fewer DRS, per the Fielding Bible.
Advantage – Dodgers
Both teams will fight thru the end of 9. Dodgers and Blue Jays led MLB in comeback wins, including post season (52).
This will be the 5th time that a team that swept the Championship Series faces a team that played 7. The team that played 7 won the four previous such meetings.
IMO, the Dodgers beat the trend and win this in LA. The Dodgers are 9-1 in the postseason and if it were not for a rare off day for Yamamoto, they could be 10-0. I think the LAD starting pitching dominates to a sweep. Regardless, I do not think it goes back Toronto and LAD will be throwing another parade.
Why would Toronto trade Varsho?
Very unlikely. They gave up quite a bit to get him from the D’backs: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno.
I think both teams consider this one a win-win.
Varsho is arbitration eligible, not a free agent until 27.
That does not make him untouchable.
No, it doesn’t. But the Jays have to be willing to trade him, and the Dodgers have to have a player or players they want.
Pretty sure Bader is now a free agent. He’d be a consideration…
I would rule ot Raffaela. The Red Sox have a lot of OF talent, so he could be in play.
Rushing for Raffaela?
It would take more than just Rushing. I think and have read they are more likely to trade Duran. Bader has a 10-million-dollar mutual option with the Phillies. Unrestricted free agent Center fielders, Bellinger, Grisham, Yastrzemski, Mullins. Grisham is the youngest of the batch at 28.
Thanks for the preview Jeff. I agree with your picks. It should be an entertaining series for both cities and baseball fans.
I’m thinking the Dodgers in six games. With the Jays offense against the Dodgers shaky BP for a possible two games or so may lead to the Blue Jays winning a couple of games. Obviously, the Dodger starting pitching being successful is the key to winning another Championship.
With the Jays’ starting pitching being all right handed should be a huge advantage for Ohtani, Freeman, and Muncy.
Enjoy everyone!
Carry on.
Not so fun facts:
In World Series history, teams coming off a 7 game series win in the LCS are 4-0 vs teams coming off a sweep in the LCS.
1988: Oakland 4-0, LA 4-3. LAD won 4-1
2006: Detroit 4-0, StL 4-3. StL wins 4-1
2007: Col 4-0, Boston 4-3. Boston wins 4-0
2012: Det 4-0, SF. 4-3. SF wins 4-0
2025: LAD. 4-0. Toronto 4-3. ???????????
And it hasn’t even been close! 25 Dodgers buck the trend! I think the Dodgers are clearly the better team but Toronto is on a roll. Our bats need to play to their capabilities and the series is ours. Let’s start getting some Badger 8’s!
Milwaukee was a more successful team than Toronto. I agree about the pitching. Even if our starters all go 6+ I can see our bullpen being vulnerable. We throw in a few 8s and it could be Dodgers in 5, but I’ll say Dodgers in 6.
Very nice position by position analysis Jeff.
Here is my very semi-professional analysis of the Series
Home Field Advantage – Jays
Positions:
DH – Push. Ohtani has the potential to carry the team but Springer is en fuego
LF – Lukes slightly over Kike but close if Kike continues to be Mr. October
Center – Varsho over Pages, offensively and defensively
Right – push. Barger has a better OPS than Teo
Third base – Clement is hot .429/1.063 over Muncy .214/.746
Short – Mookie over Bichette but close if Bo is healthy
Second – Edman (who has become the everyday guy) over Kiner-Falefa
1st – Guerrero over Freddie. Walk Vlad Jr every time. Don’t let him beat us.
Catcher – Smith over Kirk
Jays advantage – LF, CF, 3rd, 1st
Dodgers advantage – SS, 2nd, catcher
Push DH, RF
Pitching:
Starting pitching – Dodgers
The Dodgers have a big advantage with starting pitching with Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani vs Bieber, Gausman, Yesavage and Scherzer.
There is only one LHSP between the 2 teams, Snell.
Bullpen advantage – Jays but close
The Jays have a RHP dominate bullpen while the Dodgers have a dominate LHP staff.
The Jays have even pitching splits from their bullpen RHB = .720, LHB = .722 OPS.
The Dodgers have a splits advantage vs LHB =.689 vs RHB =.700 but the Brewers strength is in their RHB.
Closer – push. Sasaki has been a revelation but Hoffman is very good.
Experience – Dodgers
Results – That is contingent on length from the Dodgers starting pitching, Finding a way to get through an 8th inning would be nice. Sasaki keeping up his strong performances.
Freddie, Muncy and Ohtani need to do their work on the Jays right-hand dominate pitching staff and Pages needs to produce or sit. He’s just an out right now.
Dodgers in 6 games.
The problem with sitting Pages is who plays CF. Unless things have changed, Edman can’t play because of his ankle and Kike’ can’t play CF because of his back ( at least that’s what I’ve read. Of course if he can play LF why not CF?). Call seems to be a corner outfielder. Maybe the week off will help some injuries heel.
Hey Phil this is the umpire crew for the World Series how do they stack up 1
Mark Wegner is the crew chief and the rest of the crew is Adam Hamari, Adrian Johnson, Will Little, Alan Porter, and John Tumpane
Beyond Sasaki, Vesia and Banda who do you trust for late inning relief? I like Dryer but he hasn’t pitched in awhile. .
Vesia may be out for personal reasons….
Vesia is not on the roster.
Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Will Smith are silver slugger finalists.
Just my opinion, Bear, based on recent performance, not career stats.😎
I did say “semi-professional” analysis
That’s assuming you were talking to me, which you weren’t.
Yesavage to pitch for Jays in game 1. Suzuki got only a 1-year deal with the Angels. Not really a show of confidence.
You take Springer, I’ll take Ohtani. My call is Springer gets 2hits in the 5 games
May those 2 hits be hits by pitches
Just for kicks, sign Joe Kelly for the sole purpose of drilling Springer as our way of saying we haven’t forgotten. Mean spirited, I know.
Kelly is if nothing else, extremely entertaining.
Looks like Vesia may miss WS due to personal issues. That’s a blow.
This series will test the axiom that good pitching will stop good hitting.
And vice-versa
What is the vice-versa axiom? Good hitting hitting stops good pitching?
Casey Stengel saying
The Ole Perfessor had a ton of them. I liked his comment about the Mets when they won their first title, They came up slow, but fast.
Dodger roster posted, no real surprises except for Henriquez being added to the roster. No Conforto or Rushing. Oh yeah, Klein is on the roster too. Subs are Kim, Rojas, Call, Dean and Rortvedt.
Ron Fairly Fan asked me yesterday about the World Series Umpires and I got busy and didn’t get back to him.
I had my second to last Cancer treatment yesterday and all is going well. I’m heading back to Arizona for the winter on Nov 2 and can resume treatments there, if needed. But hopefully I will need only testing and monitoring. Cross your fingers.
Anyway, RFFan, here is my book on the Series Umpires:
G-1 – Will Little – 11.5 years exp. Championship Series Exp. Neutral, consistent. May expands east and west. Tight no & so
.
G-2 – Adrian Johnson – 17 years exp & regular season Crew Chief. Championship series exp. Extremely hitter friendly. Ball caller. Just misses true strikes. Dinky plate
G-3 – Mark Wagner – 25 yrs exp. Crew Chief for WS and regular season. Extremely hitter friendly. Pinches north and south. refuses to call low strikes. Pitches a whole ball in the zone are balls. Throw it in the dryer guy.
G-4 – John Tumpane – 12 yrs exp. 1st WS. Neutral. Consistent and accurate. His misses are all close pitches. Good umpire.
G-5 – Alan Porter – Crew Chief. 14 yrs exp. WS exp. Can be tight. Hitter friendly. Accurate and consistent. Had a 100% game. On my BEST list.
G-6 – Adam Hamari – 10 years experience. First WS. Pitcher friendly, strike caller. Generous north & south. Accurate and consistent.
G-7 – Jordan Baker – 12.5 yrs exp. WS experience. Neutral. Tallest ump at 6’7”. doesn’t like the high strike on the corners. Fair zone. Very consistent. Good ump.
Glad to hear the treatment is working Phil.
Win tonight and we are rolling.
Thanks Watford, I appreciate it.
Glad to hear Phil. Praying for a speedy and complete recovery
Thank you Cassidy
Hope you get much better my friend. I am heading out to California just before Thanksgiving. Going to head home right after Christmas since I have some appointments in January. I will be coming through Az though. Keep in touch.
Let’s do that Bear. I’d love to get together. I’m going to Alabama for Christmas and will be back in Phoenix on Jan 6.
Thanks for the scouting reports on the umpires sounds like the pitchers are going to have to throw strikes. Glad to hear your treatments are going well thoughts and prayers are with you.
Yasiel Puig would still love to play for the Dodgers again.
So would Rick Monday
Prayers for Vesia and his family, whatever they’re going through.
Dodger bullpen in play tonight
The moment is just too big for Pages
Let ‘em off the hook early.
Where was Mookie on that ground ball to Freeman?
I’ve seen enough Pages. I called the pitch. A splitter in the dirt. A ball out of the pitcher’s hand. On a 3-2 count. With the bases loaded. Talk about good scouting.
Golden opportunity wasted. They can’t do this too often against this team. Ohtani made good contact, but right at the 1B.
Bats are going to have show up to win this series. 3-4 runs isn’t gonna cut it
Sheehan joins Pages as moment too big for him
Snell only goes 5. Into the bullpen WAY too early.
When I said the series wouldn’t come back to Toronto, I thought the parade would be in LA. Wake up boys, it’s gonna take your best to win this series
You guys still want Pages in CF?
I would start Call in LF and let Kike play CF.
One game does not make a series, but Pages simply is a problem. 3-2 pitch bases loaded and swings and misses on a ball out of hand. Snell not so good, no put away pitch and what we’ve all known about the Dodgers is the BP is not so good.
This game is not about Pages.
No ,not the only problem just a glaring one. Up and down the line-up too much swing and miss
What really impresses me about the Blue Jays is that they very little swing and miss, especially against the fastball. Yamamoto will have to be at his best tomorrow night
Dodgers have been punched in the mouth several times this year (regular season) — and they have been pretty darn good at punching back. I am expecting better energy tomorrow. Let’s go guys!!