I think the Dodgers are pretty much complete with their major roster construction. I thought I would do an initial comparison of the 2024 actual opening day 26-man roster, and my projected 2025 roster.
The 2024 roster was missing a fair amount of players that began the season on the IL.
Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin, with the first four returning to the 26 man roster, but Graterol and Kershaw going back to and staying on the IL later in the year.
My 2025 projection replaces Kiké Hernández with Tommy Edman and Jason Heyward with Michael Conforto. For the bench, I selected James Outman over Andy Pages because:
- Outman is better as a 4th OF coming off the bench than Andy Pages, who is more deserving of a regular spot in a lineup.
- Outman is a clear better defensive OF, something necessary for a 4th
- Outman would be the lone LH hitter on the bench.
The bullpen is a moving target. I selected Ben Casparius for the Ryan Yarbrough role. It could also be Landon Knack in the rotation with Tony Gonsolin dropping to the bullpen in the Ryan Yarbrough role. The Dodgers could also acquire another high leverage reliever. The bullpen will be an open audition for spots during ST.
Depth will be fine with Andy Pages, Hunter Feduccia, Dalton Rushing, Ryan Ward, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso, and possibly Ben Casparius and/or Ben Casparius. Later in the season, Jackson Ferris should be available. But will he be needed? The Dodgers will undoubtedly sign multiple AAAA players for OKC.
Clayton Kershaw should be signed as soon as the Dodgers hit ST and they can move players to the 60 day IL. Will they add Ha-Seong Kim at that time or go with what they have. Will there be a new CF addition? New SS?
The Dodgers picked up two very valuable prospects (LHSP Jackson Ferris and OF Zyhir Hope). For me Ferris is the one untouchable, and Hope comes close. LAD picked them up Might they be able to do the same with Dalton Rushing or is he more valuable playing catcher 1/3 of the time, and filling in at LF, 1B, DH at OKC.
Is Gavin Lux a better option for LAD at 2B or in a trade. Before we reach New Years, IMO, Lux at 2B gives the Dodgers the higher ceiling.
Will Mookie continue to hit as a SS, or will the defense take away from his offense? I think he will be more than fine both offensively and defensively.
Will Shohei Ohtani’s offense suffer from his record breaking 2024 when he pitches again in 2025?
Will Max return to his 35 HR, 95 RBI, .352 OBP, 4.1 bWAR production for his way undervalued $12MM salary?
How many pitchers will reach 150 IP? How many truly need to with the Dodgers depth?
I am bullish on Michael Conforto’s one year deal, but somewhat bearish on Teoscar Hernández’s 3 year deal. I think he will be good for 2025, okay for 2026, but questions will persist for 2027.
Will we see the 2023 version of James Outman, or the 2024 MLB version? I say he will be more of the 2023 version.
One last question on the 2025 roster. Will Kiké Hernández find himself back on the LAD roster when roster spots open up when players can be moved to the 60 day IL? I have been accused of being anti Kiké Hernández, but I am not. I preferred Kiké to CT3 when CT signed the 4-year contract. Most who follow me know that I am defense oriented. While most fans are run scoring oriented, I am at least equally a run prevention fan. Taylor is a good defensive utility player, but Kiké is a far better defensive utility player than CT3.
But there is no spot for Kiké on this team right now. The Dodgers are not releasing Taylor. So when I say Kiké will not be with the Dodgers for 2025, it is not because I do not think he would be a solid player for LAD, only that there has to be a spot for him on the roster. I think Kiké wants to be a Dodger and I think he is willing to wait until ST when the Dodgers can do some roster manipulation with the 60 day IL. He signed with LAD last year on February 26.
The Dodgers are always capable of doing something that comes out of nowhere and have about 6 weeks before pitchers and catchers report.
I do not see any question that the 2025 LAD roster is superior to the 2024. If this team stays relatively healthy they will challenge the 2022 won-loss record of 111-51.
If they sign Sasaki then Gonsolin moves down to swing starter/bullpen and Casparius moves to OKC?
Or Miller could be traded.
I would much rather have Kike than Taylor. I also wanted Kike instead of Taylor in 2021. It was somewhat unavoidable as Kike wanted a full time gig and Taylor was OK with being a part time utility player. However, what was avoidable was overpaying Taylor as AF did. A big mistake. I would have offered Taylor the 4 years, but at $30-32M. I guess now all we can hope for is for Taylor to have a bounce back season and give us at least 2.0 WAR. If he tanks again, I can see the Dodgers releasing him at the trade deadline. I was really hoping AF could find a way to trade Taylor in a salary dump. Oh well, AF has not made many major blunders. Just Bauer and Taylor come to mind.
Taylor was NOT overpaid when he signed the deal.
4 years for 32mm was probably quite just and possibly an underpayment when he signed.
It’s easy to forget now, because he’s been so god-awful, but at the time Taylor was an All-Star, he was slashing .254/.344/.438 and had 20 home runs. He played 6 or 7 different positions and with the dodgers averaged more than 3 plate appearances per game. PER GAME. He was a regular lineup slot just without a single position.
Fangraphs had the contract dead-bang, furthering the point it wasn’t an overpay at the time.
It just turned into an albatross.
Well, I still think he was overpaid…
And I wonder how much his agent could have got for Max.
Taylor contract was 4 years for $60 million guaranteed. As noted, the contract was in line with industry estimates. The Dodgers paid the top of market value to Taylor right after Seager signed with the Rangers and just before the 2021 lockout. The Dodgers also gave the qualifying offer to Taylor. He had a decent year in 2021 hitting 254 with 782 OPS and a good playoff series against the Braves. Losing Seager kind of forced the Dodgers hand to bring back Taylor on a 4 year deal, which they otherwise probably wouldn’t have done. They still had Trea Turner under contract at the time of the signing, but only for one year. The contract hasn’t aged well, but it was a reasonable deal given the circumstances at the time.
Soto trades sent good prospects to Washington from San Diego and then to San Diego from the Yankees. I wonder who the Dodgers could have received for Seager instead of letting him walk? They had Turner available to replace Seager at short and Lux was available to replace Turner at second.
The following year they could have traded Turner instead of letting him walk and as we know now, Betts could have replaced Turner at short.
Conforto, a free agent next year, can’t be traded until later in the season but Muncy, also a free agent next year, can be.
The Dodgers are loyal to their players and maybe that helps them sign free agents. They win and resist small rebuilds through trades that move players about to be free agents. It’s working for them but they have a lot of expensive players that are past their half-lives.
Fred,
Soto was traded because the teams that had him knew they couldn’t recite resign him and needed to replenish farm systems.
The Dodgers didn’t trade Seager or Turner, because they knew they could resign them. and, to boot, the Dodgers have a top five farm system.
Further, year in and year out the Dodgers are competing for a World Series title. I can’t think of a single reason you would trade a contributing factor with that goal in mind.
lastly,lTOTALLY agree that it’s better to trade an asset early, then to trade it late. I think, and I would point to the team’s revenue and farm system (again) this team doesn’t really need to trade away assets, except in the case of surplus. They seem to have a good eye on aging curves, with cases like: Justin Turner, or Kenley, Jansen, or AJ Ellis, or JD Martinez. You can’t bat 1000, but the Dodgers do really really well.
Well, the Dodgers were unable to re-sign Seager or Turner and while the Dodgers didn’t need to rebuild their minor league stockpile, it wasn’t balanced re pitching hitting or include grade 60 prospects. I’m not sure you backed up the point you were making.
There are only 18 Grade 60 prospects per MLB Pipeline, and 26 for BA. The only Dodger with a 60 grade was Dalton Rushing who was the 26th top prospect and last prospect with a grade of 60 or better for BA. No LAD prospect reached a 60 grade for MLB Pipeline. BA is a more generous grader than MLB Pipeline. I think I am confortable in saying no MLB team is going to include a grade 60 prospect for a half year rental.
I am also not sure why the Dodgers would jeopardize their WS chances by trading their elite starting SS in 2021 or 2022. If they were out of the pennant race, you can bet both Seager and Turner would have been traded. From what I have read, most talent evaluators believe that Rushing’s grade is due to him being a catcher, but that his grade would not be as high if he was a corner OF. The top OF prospect per MLB Pipeline and #2 for BA is Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals. He got into 31 games (119 AB and 132 PA) last year with the Nats and hit .218/.288/.353/.641. It is not easy to move from MiLB to MLB.
I’ve long thought the Dodgers should also train Rushing for 3B, a pretty common shift for catchers. He’s seen a lot of action at 1B in both college and the pros.
Anyway, the more versatility the better.
Barring injury, Smith figures to be the primary catcher for years, though the position could be more of a job-share if Rushing progresses.
Right now, an injury to either Smith or Freddie could give Rushing a chance at the starting lineup.
I think it’s highly debatable if grade 60 prospects are what the front office is looking for. Obviously they’re not adverse to them, but it’s just not the role. They see the farm system providing. Jeff has written pretty extensively about this.
The above post is grammatically and comprehensively garbage.
What I meant to say is:
You can’t resign everyone, but if you think there’s a non-zero (even non-10%?) then it’s debatable if you should even consider trading them. Superstars are that rare.
For the Padres and Nats it was a zero chance of resigning.
As for the final sentence, I have no idea what point you are making? I never said the Dodgers system was perfect. It will never be perfect, my point is it has never (in the past half-decade at least) needed replenishing.
That said, if the Dodgers can make trades for Ruschman or Witt level prospects, they should!
Outman has five years left of control while Pages has all six, with four arbitration-eligible seasons. Will they be traded or waste more time in Oklahoma?
Valid point, and one we should remember, both for CT and Friedman’s sake.
I’d rather have Kike than Taylor too, but I think Jeff’s analysis is correct. I appreciated the reminder that Kike wasn’t signed in ’24 until Feb 26.
An injury to any position player could create a roster spot for Kike…
A blockbuster (which seems very unlikely) could also create a job opening…
Or perhaps Lux or Outman or Pages could be traded for a prospect….
Those three seem like the most expendable position players on the projected roster.
It’s a good team. 111 wins? No. Not with Glasgow, Miller and Gonsolin in the starting 5. None of those 3 will get 25 starts. I kinda doubt Yamamoto will either. Wrobleski, Knack, Kershaw, and whoever are all .500 pitchers, maybe, Shohei remains an unknown after a second TJ, so, it’s going to take a lot of scoring, again, to match last year’s 98. Everyone is older of course with most the other side of 30. The West got better, but I don’t believe any team there is better than the Dodgers.
I still believe AF isn’t done yet. You know what I want him to do.
I don’t see AF making anymore position player moves. The front office likes platoons if there are no stars or superstars at those positions. It makes a lot of sense to have platoons in 2 outfield positions and 2B as the roster stands right now. The only move I can see AF making is trading Taylor (in disagreement with Jeff) by paying part/more than half of Taylor’s salary and getting back a “lottery ticket” or just paying more than half of Taylor’s salary without anything in return. I don’t think trading Taylor opens a spot for Kike. They already have 14 position players if you include both Outman and Pages plus Taylor. Why would you block 1 of Outman and Pages for Taylor? Especially since they hit better in a platoon than Taylor.
The other day I read people mentioning Gomes saying Conforto will play everyday, but that was before Teo was signed. Before Teo was signed someone in the outfield had to play everyday, that’s not the case now. Again the front office likes platoons unless there is a star or superstar at the position.
I can see AF going after Sasaki and a high leverage reliever though.
The offense will be better this year than last year. Conforto/Pages platoon is going to be better than whatever it was last year including Heyward.
Then Outman/Edman platoon will be better than the revolving door in CF last year.
The starting pitching will be better this year than last year with the additions of Snell and hopefully Sasaki and Ohtani later on, instead of Paxton and Miller and Flaherty.
The bullpen will be better this year than last year by adding Gonsolin and/or May and subtracting Joe Kelly, Ryan Yarbrough and Michael Grove.
Even without Sasaki and another high leverage reliever the team is better than last year if the front office plays their cards right.
I agree that the pitching, both starting and bullpen should definitely be better in 2025 than it was last year. Depending upon injuries and whether AF adds another high leverage guy to the bullpen, it could be a whole lot better.
You talk about an Outman/Edman platoon in CF. That would mean Edman would start aqainst lefties, which would mean he wouldn’t start 2/3 of the games they play. You think AF just paid him 70 mil to start only 1/3 of the time?
He payed Taylor similar. 70 million is over what 5 years I think, it doesn’t mean Edman is going to do that for the whole contract. The front office likes platoons too and I don’t know if you’ve looked at Edman’s splits but if you haven’t he’s a platoon player. Rojas will be gone next year and I think Lux will be too because the Dodgers value versitility and they might as well get something in return for Lux 1 year from free agency. After this year I think Edman will be a utility guy getting more starts than strictly in a platoon even though he can’t hit RHP.
Question for you: Why do you think Edman should be given a full time job?
Yes, I’m aware of Edman’s splits and I wasn’t disputing your point. I just said that Friedman must value him a lot more than you do or he wouldn’t have paid him almost 15 mil per year to only use him against LHP (about 1/3 of the games).
That kind of contract ultimately backfired with CT3 and it may also wind up that way with Edman but AF doesn’t seem to think so.
Personally, I think that Edman is one of those guys who makes things happen when he’s on the field and that’s worth something to me, even though it might not mean much to you. Everyone is entitled to his own opinion on that. Always glad to exchange those opinions with you, Eric.
I value Edman, just not as an everyday player. I value his versitility BIGTIME. If he can keep up his good hitting vs LHP I value that. If he produces enough offense vs. LHP and the front office doesn’t use him as an everyday player creating a hole vs. RHP then I value his defense. I think he would be a great utility player used mostly against LHP but sometimes against RHP.
You might be right, AF/Doc might give him a full time job, but in my opinion that would be a mistake.
Good talking to you Singing the Blue
Also I wouldn’t be surprised in the near future AF regretting giving Edman that much money, just like Taylor.
Excellent overview.
I share your optimism about Outman.
If any of the Dodger stars have a weak spring, they’ll still make the starting lineup.
But what if Lux struggles and Outman thrives like he did in the Spring of ’23? He was considered a longshot for the roster… and then he played his way into the starting lineup.
Edman is getting the big bucks for his versatility. He won a Gold Glove at 2B a few seasons back, so if Outman shines and Lux doesn’t, Outman starts at CF (perhaps in a platoon) and Edman starts at 2B. Perhaps Outman could deliver another surprise.
One quibble: The Dodgers are planning a six-man rotation in ’25, and it will eventually include Shohei. The addition of Snell and Shohei make this rotation much stronger–and Sasaki might add to the ridiculous pitching depth.
At the start of the season, perhaps Knack should be the sixth SP. He’s earned it.
I doubt any Dodger starter will reach 150 innings–and that’s OK. Injuries and “load management” will distribute the innings among about 10 or 11 starters (including Kershaw) leading up to the playoffs.
Keeping Snell, Shohei, Glasnow and Yamamoto healthy for the postseason will be a priority–but Sasaki could bump one of those guys into the bullpen.
What I would do is platoon Conforto and Pages in a corner outfield. Give Outman CF everyday to find out what he has once and for all. Platoon Lux and Edman at 2B. I’d also dump Barnes for Rushing, how hard would it be for Rushing to hit better than Barnes, not hard.
I hear about Barnes being God at handling the pitching staff and a clubhouse God leader. So does Smith not handle the pitching staff good and Smith handles the pitching staff way more than Barnes and is Barnes the only clubhouse leader, uh, no to both of those questions.
That’s just me, not what I think the Dodgers will do.
Spring should sort out a lot of these questions.
The backup catcher’s role is primarily defensive, which include managing the pitching staff. He’s a part-time player and the offense is a bonus.
An injury to either Smith or Barnes should bring Rushing up. Perhaps in ’26, Barnes will move to coaching and Rushing could move into a quasi-platoon with Smith, with a bit of LF, 1B and DH thrown in.
Of the club’s top hitting prospects, I’d much rather keep Rushing than De Paula. Would happily package him with a couple other guys for Luis Robert Jr.
Yep I agree about keeping Rushing and him taking more workload off of Smith than Barnes does.
I agree about De Paula. He’s the same kind of hitter and defensive player as Mark’s golden boy Miguel Vargas and look how that panned out.
You said this.
“The backup catcher’s role is primarily defensive, which include managing the pitching staff. He’s a part-time player and the offense is a bonus.”
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but what I’m saying is I don’t accept that. Why settle for only defense and handling the pitching staff when you most likely have that and better offense in Rushing.
The most valuable free agent for the Dodgers or any team is Sasaki. His pay to potential is unmatched and most GMs would rather have Sasaki than any other free agent in the market this year, including Soto, Snell, and Burnes. To me, the Sasaki signing would be vastly superior to the Yamamoto signing as well. The Dodgers still sound like the most likely landing spot which would significantly improve their already impressive offseason.
Sasaki is because he’s so cheap and under team control for 6 years? He’s a huge get. I think the ceiling is higher if you traded Lux + for Robert jr but the floor is higher with Lux. But now that he’s completely healthy, it could be a big year for Lux. I hope they keep him. And I expect a big bounce back for Smith and if Muncy can stay healthy, this will be an even better offensive team than last year. And AF has said there’s another big bullpen piece coming. Scott and Roki make this a super team.
I would rather have Kike Hernandez over Chris Taylor on our bench jusy as an insurance policy if any one gets hurt he could play as a starter over Chris Taylor who was the starting centerfielder in the world series Kike was nit Chris Taylor that’s why yiu bring back kike and trade Chris Taylor to someone like the Pirates or As and yiu say thanks Chris. The bench should be Miguel Rojas Austin Barnes Kike Hernandez and Andy Pages.
Happy New Year Dodger Chroniclers.
Just hoping to make it to 10:00 this year! Let’s do something special in 25. Back to back baby!
You can do it Cassidy. Back to back would be sweet and historic. Can’t wait for Spring Training.
After reading all these comments I can see that most of them make sense even though don’t all agree. To me that means that there are numerous possibilities and options for Friedman/ Gomes. Any if these might happen and only F/G know what they are planning and even that might change depending on what free agents and teams want. But I love the exercise of playing GM.
Happy New Years everyone. Be safe, be kind and be humble.