Sunflower seeds stock just took a big jump in LA. Teoscar Hernández has agreed to return to LAD for three years and $66MM. He also agreed to defer $23MM of his salary. Why did he change his position on no deferrals? STB postulated that it might have been the 4th option year (club option). It could also be that he agreed to $23MM signing bonus. I do not think the Dodgers sign Teoscar without the deferrals.
Dodger haters are out again. Now known as the LA Deferrals, as if they are the only team that defers a portion of the contract. Sean Manaea signed a three year $75MM deal with NYM, with $23.25MM deferred to be paid out in 10 years from 2035-2044. The three years AAV have been reduced from $25MM to $22MM.
There are ignorant fans that still believe that the Dodgers and all other MLB teams that defer salaries have to fund them when they are actually paid out. Nope,
The CBA says a team’s deferred salary “must be fully funded by the Club, in an amount equal to the present value of the total deferred compensation obligation, on or before the second July 1 following the championship season in which the deferred compensation is earned.”
As an example, Shohei Ohtani has a present value of $46,076,768 for his 2024 contract amount, and for each year thereafter of his 10 year contract. He is paid $2MM annually, thus his deferred amount is $44,076,768. That amount needs to be funded into an escrow account for Shohei, and invested at a rate sufficient for the $44,076,768 to grow to $68MM. Those funds will be invested by Guggenheim Investments and will grow at rates that vary depending on the specific fund, but generally fall within the range of around 10% to 25%.
The Dodgers have the cash to fund the present value of the deferred amount, and the investment cache to invest the funds. This is a huge advantage for the Dodgers. Even though the CBA calls the present value of the deferred amount to be funded by the 2nd July following the championship year the salary was earned, Guggenheim are very savvy investors and are probably setting those funds aside before the regulation date in some form.
Andrew Friedman recently said after the Snell signing:
“You have to fund a lot of it right now, and having that money go to work for you, we have — a lot of our ownership group are from financial background and can have that money going to work right now, and just making it — not something that sneaks up on us. We’re not going to wake up in 2035 and [say], ‘Oh my God, that’s right. We have this money due.’ We’ll plan for it along the way.”
Players and their agents are often open to deferrals because they boost the total guarantee of a contract, allowing agencies to tout larger deals and players to have higher comps that bolster free agent prices. Teams benefit in a multitude of ways — by lowering their hit toward the luxury tax, providing themselves with more cash on hand and profiting off the investments that fund those deferrals. But industry sources caution that the benefit is not as outsized as one might presume.
In actuality, the Dodgers will make a profit on the funds they invest on behalf of the players. As an example, if the Dodgers invest Shohei’s first installment on July 1, 2026, that will grow to $68MM by July 1, 2034, when it becomes due. But if the Dodgers earn 10%, the lower expected return on Guggenheim Investments, they will make $94.5MM, or a profit that LAD retains of $26.5MM.
Any team in MLB could have signed a player with deferrals, if that player agreed. Not every player agrees, but many do.
Now back to Teoscar Hernández. He said all along he wants to remain a Dodger, and found a compromise he could live with. The Dodgers now have their LF, CF, and RF…Michael Conforto, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernández respectively.
Shohei Ohtani
Will Smith
Freddie Freeman
Gavin Lux
Mookie Betts
Max Muncy
Michael Conforto
Tommy Edman
Teoscar Hernández
Austin Barnes, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor and Andy Pages or James Outman.
Neither Pages nor Outman need MiLB any longer, so something has to happen to one of them, right? I can make an argument to keep either one. Ryan Ward will still be in OKC for insurance (or another AAAA OF).
I do not see the Dodgers moving Lux, but I have been wrong before.
There does not appear to be room for Kiké Hernández at this time. What does this mean for Dalton Rushing?
I would be comfortable with that position player roster without any adjustments. The SP rotation figures to be both better and deeper than 2024. AF/BG says they are still looking for a high leverage reliever. They prefer to acquire one now as opposed to the trade deadline. They have been linked to Tanner Scott, but nobody knows what legs are on that rumor.
There are about 6 weeks before the Dodgers report to ST. What other transactions can we expect until then? Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, and Gavin Stone will be transferred to the 60 day IL. Clayton Kershaw will be signed, and then transferred to the 60 day IL.
Is Teo a better fit for rf or lf ?
Is Conforto a better fit for rf or lf?
I believe Conforto is considered a slightly better fielder so is probably the more likely to wind up in RF.
Conforto/Pages platoon in RF. Teo will be full time LF’er.
FWIW, both Teoscar and Conforto have played more RF than LF. Conforto has the better arm, although not a great arm, and Conforto has better defensive metrics with better range.
A lot is going to be decided in ST.
Great move by AF/BG. Now get one high leverage RP and get ready to report to ST. I would like Enrique Hernandez back but there might not be enough room on the roster with the likes of Pages, Rojas, CT3 serving as primary bench pieces.
Go Dodgers!
The longer this dragged out the more secure I felt the deal would get done.
i know Teo absolutely wants to play here and I’m sure, so did the Dodgers smart people. So his agent did what agents do….try to get every extra dollar they can by listening to and sharing offers given by other teams in order to use this information to get LA to cough up a few more bucks. LA knew the agent has to do what agents do, so they went along with it until finally Teo said, “Enough agent…..time to end this so that my many fans can celebrate more than just the birth of Christ this season…..”
Great time to be a Dodgers fan
NL West just got a lot more competitive with Burnes going to Arizona. That’s a huge blow to Giants
The other interesting aspect (that I think in right about, but not sure) is that if the team is sold. The buyer has to put their money into escrow to assume the deferrals, and the server takes all their money back.
You buy everything, including liabilities.
Sounds like a deal McCourt would be involved in. Throw in a parking lot and a soccer team
I would think that if Guggenheim would decide to sell before the deferrals take effect the two parties could structure the deal whichever way the wanted to. If the buyer agreed that the funds that Guggenheim put in escrow would stay there, they would have to pay that much more. If Guggenheim was allowed to remove the money from escrow to be replaced by the new owner, the total price would go down accordingly.
Yes, debt is accounted for in acquisitions.
The lack of good defense contributed to the Yankees losing to the Dodgers. I think Betts will be a decent shortstop and Conforto a decent corner outfielder. Max played decent hot corner. Hernandez is a bit below decent with his defense. The Dodgers will not be as good defensively in 2025.
I’m pretty sure in my own mind that Roberts is not a fan of Outman and that doesn’t bode well for him. Unless, he winds up platooning in CF with Pages, Betts moves to second, and Edman moves to SS. One of Outman and Lux won’t be a Dodger in 2025.
My preference will not be a surprise here but Max could be gone next year as will Conforto and I don’t like losing Outman this year and Max and Conforto next year. So, here is my preferred lineup:
DH Ohtani
3B Betts
1B Freeman
LF Hernandez
RF Conforto
C Smith
CF Outman/Pages
SS Edman
2B Luyx
This makes no sense Fred, since max is on a one year contract, you’re not playing him, Teo was on a one year last season so he should have been on the bench, Conforto is on a one year deal so we shouldn’t play him? We know you don’t like Max but it’s hard not to say something when you throw out a lineup like this.
If it doesn’t make sense there is a chance you are missing something, something I assumed would be guessable given how many times I have offered Max in a trade.
It isn’t that I don’t like or like Max as much as I like to trade him while he has value and use him to help get a younger player.
For a few semesters I was a double major in college. One major was practical, the other was philosophy. The textbook for one class was titled “The Perfectability of Man.”
Progress has been made toward perfecting the Dodgers, but more could be done.
While Pedro Lopez is a fine young pitcher, I’d rather see the Dodgers swing a deal for fine young position players. (The Dodgers have plenty of young pitching talent–and might land Sasaki too.)
So I’d still bullish on Luis Robert Jr. At 27, he is six years younger than Teo, but with a great glove and greater offensive potential.
Yes, the risk of injury is a concern. Robert is a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
If Mookie is wildly successful at SS, Gavin Lux might be a Dodger for a couple more seasons. But right now, a defense with Gold Glover Roberts at CF and Gold Glover Edman at 2B would be a step toward perfection.
There are several expendable Dodgers on modest contracts who might appeal to the rebuilding, cost-conscious White Sox–Lux, Pages, Outman, De Paula, several pitchers, and aging 4A types like Feduccia and Ward.
Teo’s return should keep Rushing in OKC. Notions of a deal for Suzuki should be gone.
But Robert, as a young stud centerfielder, still makes a lot of sense.
And a blockbuster might also create roster space to bring Kike back.
I agree about Robert Jr., and have said so maybe too many times. Lux and Outman might do it. Rojas, Super Utility Edman and CT3 man short and sometimes center quite capably and Mookie goes to second where he belongs.
IMO Betts would be better at 2nd base than at SS, I hope all of this talk about him being at SS is smoke and mirrors, because I think Edman and Rojas would make a perfect platoon at Short. We would need a CF, like DNS, and Badger keep saying, a Roberts trade would fix that.
Before the brass declared that Mookie would play SS, I was expecting Edman/Rojas at SS, Mookie at 2B and Lux on another team. I also thought Edman might shuttle between the infield and outfield, sharing CF with Outman.
But Mookie wants to give SS another shot and brass have decided that, all considered, this is the best course forward.
With a full off-season to prepare, Mookie should be better at SS this time around.
Mookie will prove to be more than adequate at SS. I hope Outman has a super Spring Training.
It would make the team better if we had keke rather the Chris Taylor and Rushing as the backup catcher over Barnes so Smith doesn’t have to play so many games and keke can play every where and hit better then Taylor. And Rushings would hut better then Barnes.
I doubt very seriously that any team would take on Chris Taylor’s $19MM obligation.
· $13MM salary
· $2MM trade assignment bonus
· $4MM buyout of club option
So what you and others seem to be suggesting is that the Dodgers simply DFA him, release him, and eat the $19MM? All while being in the 110% tax rate.
I am not defending the contract, just that the contract makes him untradeable, and they are not going to eat $19MM just to sign Kiké Hernández.
Once CT3 returned from the IL last year, and changed his swing, for the month of September he hit – .333/.370/.452/.822 – 46 PA.
Kiké Hernández in September – .308/.322/.500/.821 – 53 PA
Dalton Rushing is not going to be the LAD backup catcher. The job of a backup catcher is to manage the pitching game. The Dodgers have the ideal backup catcher in Austin Barnes. He knows the LAD pitchers very well and they trust him. Barnes will be the backup catcher. Rushing will get called up if Smith gets hurt for a lengthy period of time. Short times on the IL for Smith or Barnes, and Feduccia will get called up.
I would like to see Barnes get in more games. The Dodgers have enough offense to make up for any Austin Barnes offensive shortcomings.
Why are you so convinced that Rushing will be a better hitter than Barnes in MLB? Because of what he did at OKC, a very hitter friendly league? Outman out hit Rushing at OKC. And I believe you are in the James Outman can’t hit column.
For September at OKC:
Rushing – 63 PA – .230/.338/.459/.797
Outman – 84 PA – .360/.429/.693/1.122
Have you seen Rushing hit? Just trying to understand the basis for your conclusion that Dalton Rushing is a MLB hitter…right now.
Rushing can play catcher firstbase and outfield Barnes can’t hit over 200 that’s all that I can tell you and you would rather lose keke then have him as a Dodger not me he can play 3rd if Muncy gets hurt which we now see about eveey year he can play second to and the outfield plus he hits way better then Taylor. Yoir trying to say two under 200 hitters is better to have on your bench. Not me I would want guys that can hit.
Maybe you should look up facts before you shoot from the hip.
Career wise, Chris Taylor has better numbers than does Kiké Hernández. Kiké has a career OPS+ of 92, while CT3 has a career OPS+ of 103. Taylor has not hit south of .200 since he first broke in with Seattle. I have linked their Baseball Reference pages.
You said… “Barnes can’t hit over 200 that’s all that I can tell you…” He hit .264 last year and knows the LAD pitchers extremely well. You choose to ignore what a backup catcher is supposed to do. Manage the pitching game. He has hit sub .200 one time since he first broke in. Austin Barnes link.
You said, “Muncy gets hurt which we now see about every year.” Not true. Except for last year, Muncy has played in at least 83% of games. Like with Taylor and Hernández, I have provided a link of the Max Muncy Baseball Reference page. Please show where he gets hurt every year. Max Muncy link.
Okay Jeff I would rather have Keke or rushing up as a pinch hitter then Taylor or Barnes in a playoff game. Enough said about who you rather have pinch hit. Isn’t that what bench players are guys that can step in and give good at bat’s and the starters a break. Keke lights a fire under the team not Chris Taylor.
No, this is not correct.
The days of Manny Mota and Howard Johnson, players who are kept on the active roster just to pinch hit are long gone.
Players on are the bench to play substantially more and bigger roles.
Signing both Conforto and Teo lets you know that the Dodgers have the same opinion of Outman that the purified water king has. He needs to be traded. There’s no future for him in LA
Chicago, Chicago, is his kind of town…..
Would love to see Outman get traded if only to give him a fresh start.
Beg to differ.
Outman is a high-quality CF–and Teo, Conforto and Pages are all suited for the corners.
Edman is also a high-quality CF–and he’s slated for the job now. But if the Dodgers actually acquired Robert for CF, Edman would shift to 2B (or maybe SS).
Should Outman or Pages be the 4th outfielder? I’d prefer Outman because of his superior defense and his lefty bat will prove more useful in a limited role.
You mean that lefty bat with the big hole in the middle of it.
No, the lefty bat that hit 23 HRs and produced a .790 OPS in his rookie season…
I also prefer to give Outman more chances. For comparison to Outman’s rookie year, Edman has never hit more than 13 HR in his 6 MLB seasons, and he has not had an OPS above 725 in the last 5 years. The Dodgers made a great trade to get Edman and he was a key contributor to the WS, but he has not been a power hitter during his career so far.
I just think that if the Dodgers had any confidence in Outman, they wouldn’t have signed three OF’s this winter. He was just scary bad last year, but we’ll see what kind of spring he has. If he doesn’t make the club, I’d love to see him traded and get a shot with a lesser club
Hello from Sofi Stadium! Go Rams
You have a pitching dual tonight
So boring for a while there
What a finish Bobby!
Stafford has become extremely inconsistent the last 5 or 6 games, maybe he has an injury that is being covered up. He’s going to have to get much better if the Rams are going to go very far.
Wow, next year if the Rams can get some adequate DBs they are going to be tough, their D Line is tough and getting better each week.
Tried as they may, the Rams just simply lose this game, Cards are bad and the Rams don’t survive with that effort against a better team.
For God’s sake, no more Notebloom (NoBoom), he just isn’t even a decent NFL player. I wonder if he got hurt walking to the showers after the game, he’s due to go on the IR, again.
Congrats to Shohei and Mamiko! It’s been reported that they are expecting a child…who might be a two-way baseballer and play in the NBA too.
Looking forward to Shohei with “dad strength.”
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-who-hit-dad-strength-home-runs#:~:text=%22Dad%20strength.%22%20It's%20what,a%20%22Dad%20Strength%22%20homer.
I’ll be surprised if the Dodgers make another substantial move with position players before spring training. But I still wish this team had more twenty-somethings…
Name Position Age Under contract thru
Shohei DH 30 2033
Mookie SS 32 2032
Freddie 1B 35 2027
Teo LF 33 2028
Max 3B 34 2026
Dills C 29 2033
Conforto RF 31 2025
Lux 2B 27 2025
Edman CF 29 2030
Bench: Barnes 35 (under contract thru ’25), Taylor 34 (thru ’26), Rojas 35 (thru ’25), Pages 24, Outman 27 …Both Pages(24) and Outman (27) are pre-arbitration.
Taylor is only under contract through 2025 with a team option for 2026 that includes a 4 mil buyout. Unless he has a sudden, spectacular awakening this coming season, it will be his last as a Dodger.
Even if he does have an awakening I figure this is his last year here. The Dodgers have a utility guy in Edman. You could also say they have a utility guy in Betts the way they are moving him around.
I look for more roster moves next month.
We still have 2 days left in this month. Andrew Friedman never rests.
Chris Taylor. 2026: $12 million club option ($4 million buyout).
Would have to be one hell of an awakening for the Dodgers to pick up their club option.
Much easier to find a twenty-something (and the top 5 farm system is loaded with them, and younger ones) than it is to find really good players.
this, in a nutshell, is the front offices plan. Develop marginally better than replacement level players internally, acquire, superstars, externally.
you almost cannot (universally) acquire young superstars. The current system just doesn’t facilitate it.
An update on Bear. Bear is at the VA in Long Beach. He is okay, but he believed he he was not making the progress he wanted where he was at and felt the VA was a better place for him.
I am a prayerful person, so while he says he is doing well, I still have him in my prayer chain.
I am working on a new post, but the perfect ending to this year. I got sick on the 27th, and today is the first day I could work on something new. I am always the last to get the colds/viruses in the household. Two grandsons and a wife came down with the virus first, but bless them all, passed it on to me.
I will get back with a new post sometime today.
I hate to hear this, the VA isn’t exactly known for it’s medical prowess. I have a few friends that really have suffered at the hands of VA docs and lack of urgency to have medical issues addressed.
Keep us updated, I will add Bear to my prayer list.
I just talked with him. He sounds like he’s ok. Should be leaving soon.
I get VA care as well, and it’s my opinion they do a decent job considering the lack of funding that exits there. Veterans of course deserve better but I feel fortunate to have them available.
Baseball America revisited the 2020 draft and posted a redraft of the first 30 players.
“As is the case with every draft, it’s difficult to know who “won” and who “lost” on draft day. That’s especially the case for a 2020 class that saw its draft year interrupted by the covid pandemic. At the time, scouts and talent evaluators weren’t quite sure how to handle the player class and shortened five-round draft. Looking back in time, it’s even clearer that some better decisions could have been made.”
I think you can tell winners by how many of a team’s original picks get “selected” in the first 30 picks in a redraft.
In the redraft, four players drafted by the Cardinals (1 first rounder and 3 second rounders) were taken in the 1st round. The Cardinals selected Jordan Walker in the 1st round (#21 overall), but passed him over on the redraft and with BA selecting Heston Kjerstad (Baltimore’s #1, # 2 overall) for St. Louis. The other three Cardinals redrafted in the top 30:
Masyn Winn – From 2nd round to #3 overall (Marlins)
Tink Hence – From 2nd round to #23 overall (Guardians)
Alec Burleson – From 2nd round to #25 overall (Braves)
Baltimore had 3 players drafted to be included in the first 30 players redraft.
Jordan Westburg – From 1st round to 30th overall to 7th overall (Pirates)
Coby Mayo – From 4th round to 11th overall (CWS)
Heston Kjerstad – From 2nd overall to 21st overall (Cardinals)
The Dodgers had three of their draft picks included in the redraft:
Bobby Miller – From 1st round #29 overall to #16 overall (Cubs)
Gavin Stone – From 5th round to #17 overall (Red Sox)
Landon Knack – From 2nd round to #18 overall (Dbacks)
That’s both an awesome exercise to an awesome achievement for both Batimore and LAD. The Cards less so as it’s one round up, even if two of those picks were comp picks for STL.
Man. If Bobby Miller can regain his stuff in 2025…
Not his stuff but his head.
The next time someone criticizes the Dodger front office.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10149053-mlb-exec-ranks-dodgers-front-office-as-no-1-they-are-elite-at-everything
Yeah, I saw that and we’ve discussed it previously. It is from April and it’s here: ($$$$)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5424700/2024/04/24/mlb-front-office-rankings/
The best quote, for me only, is this one:
… the front office’s “insane discipline,” not wasting resources on mid-tier players so that when a star becomes available, the team can pounce…
It’s why I never thought over-spending for Suzuki or Robert Jr. was ever, ever, ever going to happen. But if they were at a discount…..
Question. Does Teo’s $23m signing bonus go on top of his$66m contract or does he just get $23 up front?