Well Christmas is over, and the Dodgers did not get that bag of cash to facilitate the signing of Teoscar Hernández. But Andrew Friedman is Jewish, and this is the second day of Hanukkah, so perhaps there are 7 more days of miracles we can look forward to.
I have long been a big fan of Pablo López fan. The Twins are strapped for cash, and again I must reiterate that I have no idea what the LAD budget is. López has a $18.75MM AAV for the next three years. His actual salary is $21.750 and the resulting tax will make it roughly $42MM annually for three years.
López will turn 29 in March, so we are looking at his 29-31 baseball ages. He has made 32 starts with 180+ innings in each of the past three seasons. I think that qualifies as a workhorse.
Let’s make a quick comparison to two of this year’s top Free Agent SP, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes.
López is two years younger than Fried, throws harder, boasts higher strikeout and swinging-strike rates, and has been the picture of durability over the past three seasons; Fried missed half of 2023 with a forearm strain and had a separate nerve issue in the same forearm that sidelined him for three weeks in 2024. Fried just inked a contract for 8 years and $218MM ($27.25MM AAV). And in addition, cost NYY two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool $$$.
Burnes has the better ERA, but Lopez wins in strikeout rate and walk rate. They have identical 12.9% swinging-strike rates. The both throw their primary pitches (López’s four-seamer, Burnes’ cutter) at the same velocity. Lopez is a year younger. Burnes is estimated to make more than Fried, and also cost the signing team two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus $$$. To be fair, Burnes is more workhorse over Pablo López.
- Pablo López – 3 years $65.25MM ($55.25MM Total AAV)
- Max Fried – 8 years $218MM
- Corbin Burnes – $$$ potentially > Fried
The Twins are looking to shed payroll. There have continuing decreasing TV revenues, and they are looking to sell the team. The three highest salaried players are Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton.
- Carlos Correa – 4 years $138.9 guaranteed ($133.2 Total AAV)
- Pablo López – 3 years $65.25MM ($55.25MM Total AAV)
- Byron Buxton – 4 years $60.572 guaranteed ($27.1MM Total AAV)
The only other 8 figure player on the roster is backup catcher Christian Vazquez at one year and $10MM. RHP closer, Jhoan Durán, and INF/OF Royce Lewis are both in their first year of arbitration, and Lewis is a super two, so he has one year more before he hits FA. Durán is a FA in 2028, while Lewis is a FA in 2029. These are not the players that Minnesota is looking to trade.
I would love to see the Dodgers acquire Pablo López, but pitching is not a necessity for LAD, and if the Dodgers are going to trade any prospect capital, it figures to need to be for a position of more perceived need…CF or SS, secondarily, corner OF. If the Dodgers are going to trade prospect capital, I think they are more interested in something more than one year rentals at this time. Maybe more of an interest then at the trade deadline.
Maybe AF/BG can work out a deal involving a third team, where the Twins move Pablo Lopez and the Dodgers can acquire a player of need. Perhaps Baltimore, who needs a front of the rotation pitcher. They will not pony up for Corbin Burnes. It would take more prospect capital to acquire Jordan Westburg than Pablo Lopez. Westburg is not eligible for arbitration until 2027, and is team controlled thru 2029. It would take a haul to get Westburg. There is nary a whisper of Westburg even being available. Cedric Mullins might be available, but that gets back to the problem of AF/BG not looking to trade prospect capital for a one year rental.
If Luis Robert Jr’s options are both exercised, he would be under contract for three years and $55MM. Of course the concern remains…will he be healthy enough to stay on the field to justify the outlay of $$$ and prospect capital. Baseball is a gamble with zero guarantees. AF has made far more plus acquisitions than negative. Depending on the cost, I am fine with LAD acquiring Luis Robert Jr, even at a slight overpay.
What is an acceptable overpay for Robert Jr.? Gavin Lux still makes too much sense to move to Chicago. CWS scored a prospect haul for Garrett Crochet, so they could use an MLB player, even for two years. CWS does not have a CF to replace Robert Jr., and have zero in the pipeline. Lux and Kendall George is not going to get it done, and IMO the Dodgers are not going to trade Lux and Outman for him (even if acceptable to CWS). Because of the perceived diminished value for Robert Jr., I still think CWS waits until the trade deadline. If he has another bad year, they can just choose to not accept his option(s) and pay him $2MM to hit free agency. If he recovers his ability, CWS will get sooooo much more for him at the deadline. There really is no advantage to CWS trading him now.
Because of the lack of elite MLB ready players that the Dodgers may be willing to trade, they may have to think outside the box to get a trade. Even the Cubs and Seiya Suzuki would be a difficult matchup. The Cubs do not need an OF. But would they be willing to take Chris Taylor and Landon Knack? They get a less expensive utility player and a pitching prospect. Doubtful, but it might get discussions going. Because CT3 can play all over the field, the Cubs would have good DH hitting replacements for Suzuki (who does not want to full time DH).
Who are the Dodgers willing to trade any of their MLB ready players for?
Regardless of what any of us here think, I am sure AF has thought of every conceivable scenario and has chosen to not take on the trade. I think it is going to take some out of the box thinking, because AF is not prone to overpay.
CT3 is owed $13MM for 2025, $2MM trade assignment bonus, and $4MM option buyout. Seiya Suzuki is too good of a player to go straight up for CT3. If the Dodgers agree to the $2MM trade assignment bonus and option buyout (if Cubs do not exercise his $12MM option), would the addition of Landon Knack be enough. Cubs would undoubtedly insist on Chicago native Bobby Miller (or close enough of a Chicago native), and I am just as sure AF would decline.
Would Arizona be willing to trade Jordan Montgomery straight up for Chris Taylor? Would the Dodgers be willing to pay the extra 110% tax for the difference for Montgomery?
If Chris Taylor can hit like he did in September, he would be a good risk for some team. .333/.370/.452/.822. That is 17 games, and only 8 starts, so he came off the bench a fair amount. Can play solid defense at 2B, 3B, SS, and all three OF positions.
I know there are many out there that would prefer that Taylor was not on the team, but the Dodgers are not going to DFA CT3 and assume his $19MM obligation and then turn around and sign Teoscar. The Dodgers could get creative and trade CT3 and assume some obligation, and acquire an OF.
One other possibility is that the Dodgers could trade CT3 to the A’s who need payroll. The A’s would not send back any MLB player, but they could get a marginal prospect. And that would free up $$$ for LAD. I am sure AF has thought of this as well.
Makes you wonder what the outfield is going to look like if Mookie is actually moving to short permanently. If they don’t bring back Teo, Conforto can play one ofn the corners, and I would assume Edman would get a huge chunk of playing time in center. Otherwise they are stuck with Outman and Pages again. Not sure either of those guys are the answer.
Maybe not as an everyday RF, but together they might be pretty good. I am guessing that unless AF gets wowed, I think he is comfortable going into the season with that platoon. IMO, that platoon is better than Jason Heyward.
Jeff, are you the one who put together the 3-way trade on the Simulator that got us Buxton and Westburg?
Just want you to know you got my vote. That makes the deal official.
Just to show you how warped some of the values are at that site, you could put together a deal which sent Hoese to a team for Kopech and Suzuki and the Simulator would say that was a slight overpay with Hoese worth very slightly more than the other two combined.
Why, yes it was. I was shocked, I mean shocked, that it was not well received.
Outman is also freakishly valuable.
Will be interesting. Can’t wait to see what they do cook up
So whoever we now sign for next year, there will be an additional 110% tax on top of it?
Yes.
Pages and Outman looking much better as a platoon option in right field then!
I’ve always liked Pablo Lopez and always wanted him as a #2 or 3 for us. However, as Jeff noted, we don’t need him (or any pitcher), unless we send 2-3 pitchers to Miami.
I think some people feel Pages’ 2024 stats are the best he’ll ever do, much like an Outman of 2023. I think Pages was coming off a shoulder injury and came back sooner than anyone anticipated, and then somehow made the MLB club and actually made a contribution. I think with another offseason, he actually has Teo type upside (maybe not with the smile, but whatever). Regardless, for this team, I’d like Teo back for 2-3 years and see Pages platoon with Conforto and/or Edman and/or Outman.
Re Mookie, I much more prefer him at 2b, as I did not like what I saw when he played SS. However, the biggest plus to having Mookie play SS is that Gavin Lux will get to play at 2b, where he improved so much defensively, AND woke up in the 2nd half after a bad first half.
Lux and Pages are my two guys (if allowed to play often) to really improve in 2025.
There are still rumors of Dodgers’ interest in various shortstops. I know they are rumors so I mostly dismiss them for this reason, but it begs a question. Gomes has said that Mookie will be the shortstop. When I was coaching I learned not to make any guarantees;
How could they now get a shortstop and have to back
track on what they announced to the world?
Would they look foolish?
Would that not piss Mookie off?
Do they possibly have an agreement with Mookie that he
is the stopgap shortstop until they find someone
better?
What is the end game? Is Mookie the shortstop until he
retires, or until he tells them he wants to try pitching!
Would you mind please citing and sources rumors?
No, but I would like to hear your and others comments on the topics I mentioned.
And regarding their pitching, they have
Snell,Glasnow and Yamamoto locked in
They have Gonsolin, May,Knack and Miller available. They have Casparius,Sheehan and Frasso waiting
They will soon get Kershaw and Ohtani
Do they move some to AAA or the bullpen? Or trade some?
And yet Friedman has said they are still looking for a reliever that can move the needle. And he wants to do it now instead of at the trade deadline. And they still want Sadaki! Plus their payroll is sky high! It seems a trade is a wise strategy for many reasons;
1. Restock with controllable pitchers
2. Remove the pitching logjam at the major league level
4. Lower payroll
5. Acquire an outfielder
6. Make room for whoever they get
I would love to sit in on some of their planning meetings.
And they’re planning for years in advance
Finally!
Dodgers and Teoscar Hernandez in agreement on a 3 year, $66mil deal. 4th year option for $15mil. $23 mil deferred and $23mil signing bonus.
Is that 4th yr a team or player option?
I’m guessing team.
Hopefully your guess is right
Club option.
Wonder if the option year is what got Hernandez to agree to the deferred money.
Since it’s a team option, I doubt it, since Teo has no control over that decision.
I think what solved the problem is that they’re giving him an identical amount as a signing bonus to the amount of money he has to wait for in deferrals.
All of a sudden the outfield is crowded. Shouldn’t have to hear any more conjecture on Betts in RF.
This is not good news for Outman.
I’d be good with trading Lux having Edman at 2b, Mookie at SS and let Outman/Pages platoon CF
Hallelujah Praise the Lord. Some prayers have been answered. I was beginning to think Teo was going to play somewhere else.I am ecstatic. We should definitely be fafavored to repeat
This is what I’m hoping for if there’s no more moves made.
DH Ohtani
C Smith(mostly)/Barnes(sometimes)
1B Freeman
2B vs. RHP Lux/ vs. LHP Rojas
SS Betts
3B Muncy
OF vs. RHP Teo(LF) Outman(CF) Conforto(RF)
OF vs. LHP Teo(LF) Edman(CF) Pages(RF)
And then there’s Taylor.
14 position players listed for 13 spots.
I keep seeing people saying Edman should have the full time job in CF, maybe they’re saying that because of his good hitting in the playoffs, but the fact of the matter is he’s a platoon player and if you don’t believe me look at his splits last year and his career splits. Conforto is a platoon player too. They both have plenty of at bats to brand them as platoon players, unlike Pages and Outman.
So the question is, do you and does the front office/Doc go with what I’m hoping for and therefore trade Taylor or is one of Pages or Outman shit out of luck?
Also the outfield positions don’t have to align like that. Whatever is best for defense.
Unfortunately I think Outman is either trade bait or he’s going to be on the AAA express if any one gets hurt. Conforto and Pages in left. Edman in center and Taylor giving him days off. Maybe if Lux gets moved Outman plays center.
The better thing would be:
1 Get rid of Barnes and replace him with Rushing.
2 Give Outman the everyday job in CF on a loaded offensive team to see what he can do (it’s just me, but if given the chance I think the outcome would be good).
3 Move Edman to 2B vs. LHP.
4 Move Rojas to the bench.
5 Get rid of Taylor.
HIGHLY unlikely this happens.
I like this idea and commentary derived from FutureDodgers:
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Hernández
Muncy
Smith
Conforto/Pages
Edman
Lux/Rojas
It’s basically just the postseason lineup with Conforto swapped in for Kiké. That’s already reason to be pretty bullish on the offense, but if you want other possibles:
– year 2 Pages jump
– another year post injury for Lux
– Rushing & Freeland knocking on the door
That seems highly likely.
My inclination is still to deal Lux to prepare for Mookie’s move to 2B.
But maybe Mookie will succeed at SS.
Why be hasty?
There’s no rush….
Conforto actually hit better against LHP last year than against RHP, although that doesn’t hold true for his career stats. They’ve pretty much indicated that Conforto will play against all pitching, but of course that’s always subject to change.
If they plan to play Edman every day (and, yes, I see your point about his being a platoon player), they might move him to 2B against LHP and have Pages, who kills lefties play CF when a lefty starts.
The way I see it (always subject to trades), the bench will be CT3, Rojas, Barnes and Pages. No room for Rushing or Outman at this point and no room to sign Kike.
Where did you read this:
“They’ve pretty much indicated that Conforto will play against all pitching”
I have read that as well.
I honestly don’t remember exactly where I read it, but I think the quote was attributed to Gomes.
Now add Tanner Scott & Sasaki.
Now unload Taylor and re-sign Kike.
Welcome home Teo! Awesome!
Chanukkah is 8 days and we’ve received the gift of Teo. Talk about a lineup. Holy Cow! Oh, that’s Hindu. Can we expect a HR every inning?
Well, happy to have Teo back to play full time in LF. Certainly opens up a whole plethora of options for the Dodgers offense in 2025.
With a healthy Lux and Muncy and a rebound year for Smith, this will be avvery deep and dangerous lineup
Dbacks sign Burnes 6 years 210 million per Heyman and Passan. Opt out after year 2
Never saw that coming, I thought he was going to end up with the Giants.
Total surprise. D-Backs will have a very strong rotation .
They scored the most runs in MLB last year too. NL West is the toughest division in the league by a lot.
Good to see Teo back. Now bring in Scott and Sasaki to make this an A ++ offseason.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Well, now we know Teo will be back…so there won’t be a pivot to Luis Robert Jr.
Right?
Not if I had my way….
Certainly the Dodgers don’t need to do anything to return as the WS frontrunner. They didn’t even need Teo. The ’25 squad is now MUCH stronger than any iteration of the ’24 squad, mostly because the rotation can now be led by Snell and Ohtani. And Conforto helps too.
And the strength of the Dodgers,I would argue, is a reason to be pigs and make a serious bid for Robert–a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
The risk is in Robert’s injury history. The reward is in his 5-tool talent and youth. At 27, he’s a gold-glove centerfielder with 40-HR superstar ability. If he comes to the Dodgers and succeeds, he’d man CF into the post-Mookie era. Edman would move from CF to 2B, where he won a gold glove a few seasons back.
Who could the Dodgers trade? Names like Lux, Outman,Pages, Miller, DePaula, Cartaya, Knack, Wrobleski, Feduccia, Ward, Gauthier all come to mind. And many others down on farm….
That was quite a game last night.