There has been a lot of discussion about the Dodgers getting younger. Whereas Badger disagrees, at least somewhat, as he still believes that the Dodgers’ desire is to get better even if that means not getting younger.
The Dodgers’ primary advantage over the other 29 teams is that they have the $$$ to grab elite players, and are not afraid to use it. They draft too low to draft potential elite prospects, but are astute enough to be able to draft and develop depth. They have used that depth to acquire players, mostly lower level MiLB prospects.
One of the best prospects the Dodgers had was 1B Michael Busch. He was flipped for two top 100 prospects, OF Zyhir Hope, and LHP, Jackson Ferris. Ferris has a ceiling of a mid-rotation to back end rotation starter, and a floor of a high leverage reliever. Hope is one of the four top 100 OF. Busch is one of the young stars for the Cubs and is nearing All Star level.
Duke recently made a comment, perhaps intended to somewhat knock AF. But it was very poignant for this discussions.
“Whenever I hear somebody declare that AF is a genius, I remember that he somehow convinced himself that a keystone of Lux and Vargas would be a winner.”
Those were two of the best LAD prospects the organization had at the time. As it turns out, they were not very good, but maybe it says something about the talent level of higher ranked LAD prospects? Since being traded, neither Lux nor Vargas have established themselves with their new teams.
The Dodgers got Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech in the Vargas and a couple of prospects transaction. They got another top 100 OF prospect, Mike Sirota, for Lux.
So maybe AF did convince himself, and they tried to get younger with two of their top prospects, but they were just not good enough to stick. Maybe that is what he sees in the current group.
They have two MLB ready non-pitcher prospects: Dalton Rushing and Alex Freeland. Rushing is a backup catcher and Freeland is the backup utility player, probably ticketed back to OKC. Freeland is not getting the love that Rushing gets, but he is still very highly regarded.
So where does all that leave the vaunted LAD farm system. Two top prospect lists have been published, Baseball Prospectus (BP) (Top 30) and Baseball America (BA) (Top Ten).
Both publications have the same top 4, all OF:
- Eduardo Quintero – BA #1, BP #3
- Josue De Paula – BA #2, BP #1
- Mike Sirota – BA #3, BP #4
- Zyhir Hope – BA #4, BP #2
Both publications have another OF in their top 10:
- Charles Davalan – BA #6, BP #7
That is five top ten prospects who are OF, with the first four being top 100 prospects.
There are two other prospects that are in the top ten for both publications:
- Alex Freeland – BA #7, BP #6
- Emil Morales – BA #9, BP #5
Thus, of the top LAD prospects, only Alex Freeland is MLB ready. Teams trade in the winter to get MLB or MLB ready players so they can try to compete and contend in the upcoming season. Prospects get moved more at the deadline. But they can be sweeteners if a MLB player is traded.
Other OF in the BP top 30 are Landyn Vidourek (#9), James Tibbs III (#11), Kendall George (#14), Ching-Hsien Ko (#19), and Jaron Elkins (#22). This does not include the other OF on the AA Tulsa Roster:
- Zach Ehrhard
- Damon Keith
- Kole Myers
- Kyle Nevin
- Chris Newell
- John Rhodes
With De Paula, Hope, and Sirota all penciled in for AA, some of the above will be joining Esteury Ruiz and James Tibbs III at OKC. Which of the above are legit OF prospects marching towards MLB? Realistically? None.
As I said earlier in the week, the most OF on a roster is probably 4, with 1 usually being a veteran #4 OF. So with 4 top 100 OF, all at AA and A+, they all cannot be retained for the long term. Not to mention that Kendall George has nothing left to prove at A+, and Quintero needs CF to himself. Right now De Paula is more of a DH than LF. George can join Hope and Sirota in the OF, but that means some of the OF on the AA roster may not be in the organization very long this year. So who stays? I am going with all four will undoubtedly remain with LAD and hopefully one or two or three will begin to separate themselves. AA is the biggest MiLB jump, and many a prospects’ bubble is burst in AA. The risk is that if one or two or three seem to falter, their trade value will decrease, and the bigger risk will be that they could become the next Ryan Ward.
Of the top prospects:
- 10 OF
- 10 RHP
- 5 LHP
- 3 SS/3B
- 1 SS
- 1 3B
The SS, Kellen Lindsey, is also reportedly considered a potential switch to CF. The three SS/3B prospects: are Alex Freeland, Emil Morales, and Joendry Vargas, are all considered more likely 3B prospects.
The top three pitchers in the organization are LH: Adam Serwinowski, Zach Root, and Jackson Ferris. The top RHP prospects are Christian Zazueta, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt. The last two are already on the 40-man roster.
Bottom line, the Dodgers 26-man roster does not have much of a possibility of getting younger this year. Bums suggested that the Cubs might be willing to trade PCA for Pages and a solid rotation addition. I am not sure that AF would trade Pages straight up for PCA. Maybe they will not get younger, but they can get better.
I think getting younger means no more Conforto one-year stopgaps or Teo-age multi-year deals for positoon players.
Let Freeman and Kim get long looks. Rushing too. Replace Muncy with someone younger in time.
It’s a process but it’s underway. Snell & Yates last of their kinds. (Not really)
Rushing is not your normal backup. He needs to play everyday period. He is not going to do that in LA unless they move Smith to another position soon. And therein lies the dilemma. I think they will sign a couple of backup type catchers before they go to spring training. I can see Rushing back in AAA playing every day to enhance his trade value.
Freeman is the first baseman; FREELAND is the prospect. Kim is a great defender. His bat is still a big question mark. He also does not have much power. I still think he is better suited for utility work.
Methinks that Kim demonstrated much more upside than Freeland with a superior glove and speed. Edman, meanwhile, is a finished product with greater versatility.
The conservative move would be to use Edman at 2B, but that wouldn’t help Kim develop and fix his strikeout problem. I’d prefer to see Kim get a greater opportunity to progress as a starter while Edman focuses on UT work.
Freeland had some nice moments during the season, but not nearly enough to push Rojas or Kike off the roster. (I assume the Miggy will be back, and possibly both.) Freeland will benefit from a full-time job in OKC–and yes, he eventually seems more suited to an UT role on the major league level.
The Dodgers should be scouting for somebody with a higher ceiling to be Max’s eventual successor at 3B. Perhaps one of the stud OF prospects could be dealt for a stud 3B prospect. Or perhaps Max’s eventual successor has a Japanese name.
Haha thank you
U R most welcome..
First of all, thank you Jeff for your in depth research on the organization’s minor league system. You save me a lot of time by doing this for me. I trust your judgment on this topic.
As you know, the question I ask every year is “who among those many names is ready to step in and help NOW”. You answered that question. “Realistically? None”. And with that answer comes an immediate thought to me – then trade them for someone who can help NOW.
There’s an article in the Times this morning about the Lakers Buss Brothers being canned and Friedman stepping in to help Pelinka advance the analytics department there. Analytics. That is what drives the Dodgers. And frankly I have found that as much as I do believe in the staggering opus of sabermetrics, trying to figure out the moves the team are about to make has proven to be above my pay grade. For years I have been a back of the baseball cards analyzer and I still daily read Savant and BR projection lines but in doing so have been pathetic at predicting moves. My guesses are again out there and they are about the 26 on Opening Day of ‘26.
Anyway, the point I’m awkwardly trying to make is I appreciate coming here and reading your research. This, along with the responses from the group always gives me something to think about while taking my mind off other bullsh*t going on all around me.
Teo, Pages, Tucker. Diaz/Suarez. Hsu, Bellinger, Williams. Fairbanks. Imanaga. Donavan. Who am I missing?
Imanaga took the qualifying offer from the Cubs.
I would easily trade Pages for PCA, a platinum glove winner. I”ll also guess (with no evidence) that most of baseball would trade Pages for PCA.
You wouold throw in a rotation pitcher as well?
Second half of year he barely hit above Conforto. Actually the 2nd half of the season PCA did not hit as well as Conforto.
PCA – .216/.262/.372/.634
Conforto – .223/.315/.350/.665
Pages – .252/.293/.435/.727
Great glove. The best. Then go trade for Outman and slide Pages to where he belongs, in RF. There is no reason to trade Pages just to get PCA, which is why I do not believe any GM who looked at the LAD roster would trade Pages for PCA, when they can trade for a bridge CF before SIrota or Quintero arrive. Some one like the Nationals Jacob Young. While not platimum glove, he is still exceedingly good in CF. 12 DRS and 20 OAA in CF. Slide Pages to RF and Teo to LF.
What makes a better OF: PCA in CF and Teo in RF, or Young in CF and Pages in RF? You do not need to spend $400MM for Tucker. Call can backup Teo in LF.
I would.
Pages + Sheehan/Stone/ Wrobleski for PCA works for me
And I’d throw in Bobby Miller too.
But the Cubs would probably say no, or risk being crucified by Cub fans.
Yes, PCA had a rough second half. So? Pages slumped too, which resulted in him being benched in the postseason until, thank goodness, he wasn’t.
In the first half, PCA was doing a Willie Mays impression out there. He’s a rare talent.
By the way, Buxton did a pretty good Willie Mays impression last season too…
Time progresses, players evolve.
Scouting Grades
Pages
Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Arm: 70 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
PCA
Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 80 | Overall: 60
Andy PagesBorn: 12/08/2000 in Havana, CubaSgned by the Dodgers an an international free agent on March 1, 2018.Debut: 4/16/2024Pete Henry Crow-ArmstrongBorn: 3/25/2002 in Sherman Oaks, CADraft: 2020, New York Mets, Round: 1, Overall Pick: 19High School: Harvard-Westlake, Los Angeles, CADebut: 9/11/2023
SS Betts
DH Ohtani
C Smith
1B Freeman
RF Teo
CF PCA
LF Donovan
3B Muncy ugh
2B Edmond
I lived in the Eastern Time Zone for 10 years and would tape Dodger games to watch the next day. I used fast forward enough that I would only spend no more than 45 minutes to get through a game. I learned who I would watch bat and who I wouldn’t. My point is that there are some years where I would only watch three hitters.
I think I would love to watch PCA play and hit but not so much Pages.
Why spend as much as the Dodgers spend on pitching and not have elite defense behind them?
I say why stop at PCA. Teo and Bobby Miller for Jackson Chourio for RF. Tommy Edman and Ben Casparius for Brice Turang (2B). Max Muncy and Tyler Glasnow for Junior Caminero (3B) and Ryan Pepiot (P). Then Maddux Bruns for James Outman (reserve OF). I think I have managed to move all of your least favorite Dodgers, and why wouldn’t those other teams be willing to pay those salaries. Dodgers get younger and better defense.
“Why spend as much as the Dodgers spend on pitching and not have elite defense behind them.”
Because slug is offensive.
There’s no reason not to have both.
Great piece today. 2 things come to the surface for me: (1) the Dodger farm system is not as good as we like to tell ourselves it is, especially for position players, and, (2) the Dodgers prioritize power at every position, even if it means compromising on defense.
We can talk about how nice it would be to have more contact, less swing and miss, less fly balls, etc. The metrics say otherwise and have proven their value.
Hard to find hitting instructors who teach high contact rate hitting, especially in the Dodgers system. As good as Ohtani is, if the guy had more plate discipline, he would be a total monster. Teo reminds me of Bellinger in the two years after 2020. He chased outside pitches like they were tacos. Belli is much more selective now and has not struck out over 100 times the last 3 years.
LAD might be devoid of any MLB regulars at the upper levels, which is why many of us are not overly enamored with the farm system. But the Dodgers will put more MiLB players onto future MLB rosters than most if not all other organizations. That is why they are rated so high as they are every year. They have enormous depth, which they can use to buy stars.
It’s a weid system. I love it but it has some gaps in the upper levels. The jury is still out on Rushing, Freeland & even Sasaki.
Well put.
Our lineup needs to add a .900 OPS bat.We were not a good offensive team the second half of the year and in October. The only 2 guys we could realistically expect to have better offensive years in 26 are Mookie and Edman. I’d hate to waste a WS winning pitching staff because we can’t score enough runs.
.900 OPS bat. Who you got in mind? Tucker did it a couple of times in Houston, but there he knew what pitch was coming. That won’t happen in LA. .865 at best here.
He fell a bit short of a .900 OPS, but I’ll bang this drum again:
In ’25, Byron Buxton had arguably the best season of his injury-riddled career. He hit to an .878 OPS, with 36 HRs and 97 runs scored in 127 games played.
Still one of the fastest guys in the game, he stole 24 bases and was caught zero times. He’s a first-rate defender in CF, and his range would limit the damage that Teo might do with his glove.
The team-friendly contract Buxon signed with the Twins years ago guarantees him $15m per season through 2028. Yes, he’ll probably be on the IL a lot–but he’s a superstar talent at half the price of a superstar.
He has no-trade rights but might waive them for the chance to win a ring.
Absolutely the offense needs a really solid hitter who is confident and unwavering in what he does. That way they won’t screw him up. Great rotation with an offense that’s only route is homers. If the dodgers had torontos offense they would have swept.
Gentlemen, I submit for your consideration, RHRP Tyler Rogers. Not his lefty reliever twin Taylor and not no-relation starter Trevor Rogers.
This is what MLBTR had to say about him:
“ Tyler’s fastballs average in the low-to-mid-80s but from a submariner delivery that’s hard to pick up. He’s very durable, having never gone on the big league injured list, which has allowed him to toss at least 70 innings in each of the last five seasons. Over those five seasons, he has a 2.71 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate isn’t impressive but his 4.4% walk rate is tiny and his 56.3% ground ball rate is huge. He’s one of the best in the league at staying off barrels and limiting hard contact.”
I love that he’s never been on the IL, that he’ll give you about 70 games per year, and that he simply doesn’t allow runners to reach base (lifetime WHIP over 7 MLB years is 1.099).
No matter which other reliever we might add, I’d like to add Rogers as well since he would give us a totally different look coming out of the pen.
Rogers is on my wish list.
There are several closer-types on the market, but Rogers is unique. A great guy to have if you need a double play.
Seems like a no-brainer to me, as is Harrison Bader for the OF. These wouldn’t be dramatic moves, but they would clear improve the team
He would be a longshot to join the Dodgers unless he injures himself in the off season. Dodgers want slug and nicked up pitchers. Otherwise, good find Jeff.
Rodgers would make the bullpen multi-dimensional.
I don’t think the team ever really has to ‘get younger’. We did the repeat by signing Teo, Conforto, Glasnow, Snell, Yates and Scott, Treinen etc. Many did not work out, but still victory. So I expect this to continue. Sign free agents and trade prospects for established players in upper 20 age bracket .Not 1 new ‘young’ non pitcher made any impact this year.
I guess its fun for those who write about and track the 100 top prospects etc every year while knowing for the most part we will never see them on the team
Yes, the brass foolishly decided to sign Conforto last season–and that $17 million investment basically blocked younger players like Outman and Ryan Ward from getting a fair opportunity. The brass reportedly tried to strike a deal for Steven Kwan at midseason before dealing for Alex Call.
I keep hoping for the Dodgers to get lucky with a young talent. Trout, Acuna, Soto and Chourio broke in at age 19. The Dodgers now have several top young OF prospects–but they aren’t really expected to be ready for a couple of seasons.
Ducks can’t shake the Trojans. Jeff, I’ll never post again if my team blows this game
I hate personal fouls.
SC is a year away. Never expected them to beat the Ducks, so I am not that disappointed. Beat the Bruins and get an Jan1 bowl game. I will be happy with that.
I grew up in Southern California, rooted hard for USC–Charles White Marcus Allen, Ronnie Lott (the best)–but finished BA at Oregon. Dad was a UCLA guy so I rebelled. Wondered who I’d root for my first USC/Oregon game. I soon found out. Some institutions are more corrupt than others. I’ll never forgive UCI for its fertility clinic scandal. I’ll give USC the law, dentistry & film departments. Maybe business . . .
Watched SC game until half time. They have not been in Oregon’s class for the last several years. Turnovers and stupid penalties cost them big time.
A lot of new coaching hires around the league, some of those guys I never heard of. Craig Albernaz hired by the Orioles to coach the teams’ catchers. Nationals hired Andrew Aydt to be the assistant hitting coach. He is Driveline Baseballs assistant director of hitting and becomes the second ex-Driveline employee to join the Nats staff along with pitching coach, Simon Mathews. Frank Anderson is leaving the University of Tennessee’s staff to join the Giants. In what capacity is still unknown. His son, Brett Anderson, a former Dodger, pitched in the majors from 2008-21. He was one of Freidman’s first free agent signings.
Pardon the correction Bear, but Albernaz won’t only be coaching the catchers, he’s the new manager for the O’s. He’s an ex-catcher so will impart extra wisdom to the catchers.
You’ll probably agree with me that this off-season’s hiring of new coaches consists of a majority of names I’ve never heard of. Gone are the days when teams hired ex-MLB players with recognizable names for those jobs.
I almost forgot the terrible events on this day in 1963. I was fifteen years old, at choir practice for the Thanksgiving concert when I first heard the news. I was at lunch when I saw the flag on the quad being lowered to half-staff. Spent the entire weekend watching the events unfold on TV. Watched CBS mostly because of Walter Cronkite, one TV newsman I really trusted to be truthful. This nation changed drastically that day. I still wonder how different things might have been had JFK lived.
The end of the innocence
Great rundown, Jeff.
The glut of young OF talent–and to me that includes about a dozen players, everyone from Pages down to the young slugger from Taiwan–cries out for a deal or two to improve the 26-man roster and depth chart in various positions. (Do the Dodgers have any rising-star catchers in the minors now?)
I don’t see the Cubs letting go of PCA, but among the plausible (or semi-plausible, super longshot) CF options for ’26 and beyond, he’d be at the top of my wish list. PCA has already proven himself to be a gold-glove defender, and with his youth, the glove is unlikely to slump. He may be streaky on offense, but the ceiling is high.
Probably pie-in-the-sky high. So what are the plausible deals?
No doubt Friedman, Gomes & Associates have their own wish list in the free agent and trade market. I’ll try not to read the minds that a year ago decided that $17 million should be invested in Conforto. But I have an opinion of what they should be thinking.
That starts with the possibility of landing Buxton in a trade instead of signing Tucker or Belli–two players that Buxton out-performed in ’25. Even with his injury history, the cost-to-benefit analysis is very favorable.
The $$$ saved (including a lower luxury tax) in taking on Buxton’s contract at 3 years for $45 million can instead be invested Devin Williams, Tyler Rogers and Harrison Bader–again, that’s my wish list, as Bader can cover CF whenever Buxton is unable to play.
Maybe some $$ could be invested in Murakami or Okamoto, if the Dodgers’ braintrust think they are worth it.
Could it happen? I certainly think so, particulary if Buxton decides he wants to win a ring. His no-trade rights give him a lot of power to dictate his future.
Also plausible: a deal with the Red Sox for either Duran or Wilyer Abreu. Boston as four quality outfielders for three positions. Sure, one can DH–but the Sox need pitching. The Dodgers, I think, should target Abreu to put his gold glove in RF. An OF of Teo-Pages-Abreu would be a major upgrade, but it’s reported that the Red Sox would probably prefer to trade Duran.
Honestly, if I ran the Sox, I’d angle for a blockbuster to acquire both pitching and Teo as my new “Little Big Papi” DH attacking the Green Monster. But I’m conflicted about losing Teo both for his power and his positive clubhouse vibes.
As I’ve mentioned before, I think the ’26 Dodgers outfield has already been upgraded without a single deal. A platoon of Alex Call and Ryan Ward has to be a step up from what Conforto delivered.
Last winter, AF jumped the market to over-pay for Conforto’s services. Now he should do the same for Bader as the first step in perfecting the roster.
Great post except I’m not sold on Bader.
The Lux deal brought in Sirota and also the draft pick that became Davalan.
Sweet.
Jeff has mentioned the Royals’ 3B Maikel Garcia as a potential trade target, while noting there’s little reason to think the Royals would move him.
Probably true–unless the the Royals have a decent 3B prospect in the wings, or the Dodgers could include a successor in strong package.
Garcia is 25 years old, and in ’25 produced an .800 OPS over 160 games played. The strikeout to walk ratio is good, helping lead to a .351 OBP. His power is middling, producing 16 HRs–about one every ten games.
With Max due back in ’26, there is no urgent need at 3B.
Still, the Dodgers front office should have Garcia on its radar, especially if they are not impressed by the likes of Murakami or Okamoto.