I just do not understand this fascination with Nolan Arenado. A great player to be sure, but is he better than Max Muncy? There is no question who has had the better overall career. But today, who is the better player, a better fit, overall? And yes, salary has to be considered.
I agree with Badger that with his swing, Max is an oblique strain ready to happen. But it is that swing that has provided at least 35 HRs in 4 of the last 6 full seasons. Until last year, he had played 135-144 games in each of the previous 5 full seasons.
He is improving his defense. For 2024 he had a +5 DRS and a 0 OAA. He has a plus arm (84th percentile).
Last year:
• Muncy – 3.0 bWAR, 141 OPS+, .852 OPS
• Arenado – 2.5bWAR, 101 OPS+, .719 OPS
Arenado has more bat to ball skills, but Muncy has a much better BB rate, giving him a superior OBP. With Arenado having 34 points greater BAbip, his BA is superior to Muncy’s. All of the slugging elements (SLG, Exit Velocity, Hard Hit%) favor Muncy.
I hear that Arenado wants to be a Dodger. He could have opted out after 2022 and 2023 if being a Dodger was important. Teoscar Hernández says he wants to be a Dodger, but is unwilling to defer any salary, which he has every right to say no to. Just as the Dodgers do not have to offer a contract without deferrals.
Max showed everyone that he wanted to be a Dodger. He is playing on the second of a 2-year $24MM contract. In 2023, he signed a 1 year $13.5MM contract. And in 2020, he signed a 3-year $26MM contract. For 2020-2025, Max will have earned $63.5MM. He has an option for 2026 of $10MM with $0 buyout. He could be 7 years and $73.5MM.
Max has said he wants to be a Dodger for life, and has agreed to contracts that were well below his market value to make sure. Clayton Kershaw has done the same thing.
Max has 2 World Series rings, while Nolan has played in 8 playoff games…total. His team was 1-7 in those 8 games. Nolan has never played past NLDS. Nolan is 5-33 in those 8 games, 4 singles and 1 HR. He has 9 strikeouts with 0 BB. OTOH, in 260 PA, Max has a Playoff OPS of .832, including 13 HRs. Those 13 HRs are tied with Justin Turner and Corey Seager for the LAD playoff record. He has a .388 playoff OBP.
The Dodgers have a need for a RHH corner OF. Teoscar Hernández is the logical choice. But if he is insisting on 3 years $66MM with no deferrals, that is going to be tough for AF/BG/Walter. Because in actuality, that contract is $138.6MM with the 110% Cohen tax. Philadelphia just signed LHH Max Kepler, so that takes them out of the Teo auction as long as they have Nick Castellanos in RF. Apparently they were not comfortable with the Teo salary demands. NYY needs a 3B much more than a corner OF. NYM needs to move Starling Marte, maybe. They can move Nimmo to CF and sign Teo to play LF. But the stiffest competition comes from Toronto. They need him, and they could sign him. Maybe they prefer the younger switch hitting Anthony Santander.
IMO, the Dodgers are playing the waiting game, and hoping that Teoscar’s demands drop to their liking. If not, I think they are comfortable with Michael Conforto in LF and a Pages/Outman platoon in RF, and Edman in CF.
If that scares fans, last year it was Teo in left coming off a horrible year, Outman in CF, and Jason Heyward in RF.
The Dodgers could trade for Arenado, and move Max to 2B. But that absolutely forces the Dodgers to trade Lux. At least for now, Lux is the 2B.
I do not believe the Dodgers can sign Teo and trade for Arenado. One or the other. They can probably work Arenado’s AAV to below Teo’s, but that would also involve trading prospects. The more St. Louis pays down, the better the prospect capital going back to them. With Teo, it is just $$$.
While I am a firm run prevention fan, I say leave Max at 3B and sign Teo.
As an addendum to the previous post, here is a list of the number of players drafted, signed, and reaching MLB for each of the 30 teams. The period is for the AF years,,,2015-2024.
HOU – 51
LAD – 46
NYY – 43
MIN – 43
SDP – 42
CLE – 41
PIT – 40
TEX – 40
SEA – 39
CIN – 37
ATL – 36
DET – 36
COL – 35
BAL – 34
WSN – 34
ARI – 33
TBR – 33
CWS – 33
SFG – 32
LAA – 32
KC – 32
CHC – 32
A’s – 32
STL – 32
TOR – 32
MIL – 31
MIA – 31
BOS – 27
PHI – 24
NYM – 21
I don’t get the fascination with Arenado either.
There’s an article today about the outfield of the Dodgers saying if Teo is not signed the front office is comfortable with an outfield of Conforto everyday in LF, Edman everyday in CF and a platoon of Outman/Pages in RF. the article continues saying the front office wants Rushing to focus on catching but also wants him to be in a position to “kick him to LF” if needed.
This is mostly what I’ve been thinking all along and here is what i think is going to end up happening.
1 They will start the season with their plan of Conforto, Edman, Outman/Pages.
2 They’re going to find out the hard way that Conforto and Edman are platoon players.
3 Number two above ^^ will bring Rushing to the team from the minors if he doesn’t make it on the team out of spring training.
4 We will see a platoon of Lux and Rojas probably kicking Betts to 2B when Rojas is starting against LHP.
5 At the trade deadline we will see the front office go after a platoon player outfielder, unless one of the outfielders show early in the season they can be an everyday outfielder. If they get a platoon player outfielder at the deadline, someone will have to go to make room for him on the 26 man roster and the leading candidates are Barnes and Rojas.
Or they end up signing Teo during this offseason and I have a funny feeling Teo is going to sign elsewhere.
Oh I forgot. I think the Dodgers will end up signing Sasaki and the Dodgers will be so confident about the pitching staff that they are comfortable doing what I outlined in my original post above. An upgrade in pitching this year compared to last year gives them the flexibility to experiment with the outfield offense.
Actually add Taylor as one of the leading candidates to go at the trade deadline because they probably prefer to keep Rojas over Taylor.
If things go bad enough they’ll go after an everyday outfielder at the deadline.
Christian Walker dropped his request for 4 years and agreed to 3 years $60MM. 3X GG 1B, and per many, nobody is close.
Teo’s career OPS is .808 while Walker’s career OPS is .793.
Walker is 1.5 years older than Teo.
Max Kepler – 1 year $10MM
Jurickson Profar is looking for a 3 year deal and can play 7 positions. His demands cannot be anywhere close to what Teo is asking for. Neither Teo or Profar can play + defense in LF.
Anthony Santander wants a 5 year deal.
Where should Teoscar’s salary demand fall? Contary to the thinking of many out there, the Dodgers do have a budget.
Jeff, what was the time period for the above list.
Maybe there is a budget for some and not for others.Because I believe Teo has a different budget restraint than others.
Hang in there Bear. Happy Holidays to you and yours. Thanks for all you do for this blog. Especially the history of our Dodgers and baseball. I for one am not only a fan of the Dodgers but baseball. I can only imagine what it would have been like to see The Babe, Gehrig, Cobb, Walter Johnson and Cristy Mathewson. Not to mention the Boys of Summer. The Brooklyn Dodgers from 1947 to 1957 must have been a joy to watch an be a fan of.
That was when baseball was Americas game.
Now it is football. Both college and pro. Big shift happened in the late 60’s and early 70’s. Perhaps you could do a piece on that.
Hell no on Arenado. And Bregman
Or both?
Max could shift to 2B, where he has played in the past, or even LF.
He is faster and more athletic than he looks. As others have pointed out, Teo is not really a stellar defender so the drop-off may not be great.
I assume an Arenado deal, unlikely though it seems, appears to be more possible if Teo heads East.
I’d be bummed for Max if he gets moved in a deal.
I cannot see Max getting moved in any deal.
Rushing has 40 grade speed, and Muncy is in the 38th percentile for speed. Before anyone says anyone can play LF, why couldn’t Lux or Miguel Vargas? Both Rushing and Muncy will have to play deeper so that doubles hit to the wall do not become triples and that means more singles dropping in front of them.
Why not just leave Max at 3B, Lux at 2B, and if no Teo, Conforto is in LF, Edman in CF, and Pages/Outman platooning in RF. I am not nearly as concerned about the offsense as many out there are. Shohei, Mookie, Freddie, Max, Smith, and Lux (for all of the Lux believers), I think the Dodgers can handle a little bit of a shortfall in the OF…although I do not believe it is nearly as bad as some of you think it is. Even if taking Lux out of the offensive equation. The Dodgers have plenty of fire power. I prefer Freddie/Lux/Betts/Max to Freddie/Max/Betts/Arenado.
This is the same offense that just won the WS, except Conforto replacing Teo, and Outman replacing Kiké. The starting pitching will be stronger. The bullpen could be stronger as well. Without any further additions, the 2025 LAD team is better than the 2024 team.
I am a believer that Outman’s September numbers (after the baby was born) are more reflective that he can return to his 2023 season.
Outman Sept – 84PA, .360/.429/.693/1.122, 6 HR, 12 XBH, 19 RBI
Rushing Sept – 70 PA, .230/.338/.459/.797, 4 HR, 6 XBF, 11 RBI
And there is no question as to who the better defensive OF is.
Good post Jeff I agree with almost all of it including the part about Outman. But Lux is a platoon player, he needs a platoon partner, whether or not the Dodgers do that and with who I don’t know, just like I don’t know what the Dodgers will do about anything.
Also as I mentioned above in my post, I think the Dodgers are going to find out the hard way that Conforto and Edman are platoon players too. I don’t know what they will do about that, but I mentioned what I think in my post above.
Also you have an open minded head about Outman possibly producing as good or better than he did his rookie season, unlike the know it all Mark on his blog. I commend/praise you for that.
I also think the Dodgers will go after Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates this offseason and get Sasaki. And I think the Dodgers are going after Bo Bichette after this season when he becomes a free agent.
As things stand, Rojas should be Lux’s platoon partner.
Rojas and Taylor and Lux and Muncy IMHO are platoon partners
Muncy started fewer and fewer games against lefties last year.
It would be easier to develop Rushing as a catcher if OK had fewer of them.
Love the post-baby stat.
Fully agree that the Dodgers would succeed with the roster as is.
Is it better than the ’25 squad? Hmm…
Teo > Conforto
But Snell, Edman, Kopech > whomever they supplant.
Plus it’s nice to have Gonsolin and May coming back.
Teo > Conforto for sure in 2024, maybe not in 2025
Forgot to add this….
Shohei on the mound > Paxon/Knack/Wrobleski/Bad Bobby Miller or any other back-end starter
And maybe we’ll see the return of Good Bobby Miller.
Amen. I was stirring the pot with Arenado.
Max Muncy is the ultimate Dodger. The Dodgers have changed his position a few times, yet he does not complain. He works for half the price of his contemporaries. He raves and praises the Dodgers name every time he does an interview. He works hard and has improved his defense in every position the Dodgers have put him in. Max Muncy deserves to be the starting 3rd baseman for the 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers.
Deserves is an interesting word in today’s game.
Interesting callback to last year’s OF of Teo/Outman/Heyward.
This year we have a steady Edman in CF, a one-year gamble in Conforto, a top prospect with a year under his belt in Pages, and a #1 overall prospect with a chance to stick in Rushing. Outman will be lucky to make the bench.
Outman will get a shot in Spring. He is our wild card.
It puzzles me that many Dodger fans sell Outman short while they pencil Pages into the lineup.
Outman’s ’23 season was much better than Pages’s ’24 season, on offense and especially defense. Outman in ’23 proved himself to be a true CF who could play every OF position. Pages in ’24 proved shaky in CF and is best used in a corner.
Outman in ’23: in 151 games (third on the team behind Freddie and Mookie) , he hit to a slashline of .248/.353/.790 OPS with 23 HRs. That’s why he finished 3rd in ROY voting.
Pages in ’24: in 116 games, he slashed .248/.305/.712 with 13 HRs.
Pages crushed lefties, producing a .916 OPS. Outman in ’23 flexed his power against northpaws, hitting 22 HRs and a OPS of .835.
They could form a good platoon while Edman and Conforto play full-time.
Jeff, what time span does your table account for and is it inclusive of IFAs and draftees?
2015-2024. No on IFA. But I am working on another chart for them and UDFA as well. I have updated the post to include that bit of information. It was clear in my brain, it just did not get to the post.
103 mil tax bill for 24. Is there any limit to the Dodger coffers? If not then Hernández and Scott will be Dodgers
Burnes and shut down league.
The fact that the Dodgers have not pursued Buehler makes me think AF is confident in signing Sasaki. Can’t believe Burnes is in play. That would be shocking
Impressive research on the success of drafts. Getting to the majors is the baseline measure of success.
To clarify, these numbers only reflect the AF era, right?
I’ll have to show this to my friend who roots for the Mets. They have the worst record of graduating draftees to the majors.
Correct, AF era 2015-2024.
I agree that the Dodgers should stick with Muncy at 3B instead of trading for Arenado. Max has been a loyal Dodger and took less money to re-sign with the team. Max also has better walk rates and OBP and currently more power than Nolan. However, Arenado has been a great player, is a year younger than Max and is a much better defensive player. And Arenado is more reliable and has greater upside. In 2022, Nolan had a WAR of 7.7 with St Louis! And he has had in excess of 610 plate appearances nine years in a row (excluding the covid year). Max has never had 600 plate appearances in his career.
Jeff alluded to the salary of Arenado, but reports are that St Louis will pay part of his salary down to around $15 million per year or less. I could see Arenado at 3B and Muncy at 2B as a potential improvement to the roster, but that would be unlikely. Especially with either Lux or Betts the likely 2B. So ultimately I agree that Dodgers will keep Muncy over Arenado, but also think Jeff is overly negative on Arenado and his skill set and his amazing career.
I could see wanting Arenado if we had a need at 3rd but we don’t. A year ago I thought Muncy was below avg and just a stopgap. But his defense has improved and can be a valuable bat.
I have always been an Arenado fan as many if us are but unfortunately we have no need for him at the moment.
Ricky Henderson passed away last night of pneumonia related complications
Sad day for baseball. One of the greatest all around talents of my 62 year old time. A true great leadoff hitter and the all time stolen base king.
Sad to learn about Ricky. Truly one of the greats–and I like the fact that he knew it. Ricky did not believe in modesty!
This brings me back to a cherished moment as a fan. Some decades back, I tagged along with my baseball writer pal (we are both aging Marine brats first met as Pee-Wee teammates!) in Spring training. At Vero Beach it was pretty cool watching Fernando’s last appearance as a Dodger pitcher (I commited a faux pax by clapping in the press box). My pal was also being followed by a college intern who was a complete fanboy over the players but so young he didn’t recognize Koufax.
Inside a lounge, I was able to eavesdrop a bit on a conversation between Brett Butler and the conservative pundit George Will, who may have been working on a sequel to his baseball book “Men at Work.” They were talking about the art of batting leadoff.
When Butler flatly stated that Ricky was the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, I got a sense that Will wasn’t pleased.
Butler, I think, delivered the kind of nuanced batting art–working the count, drawing walks, using all fields, dropping bunts–that interested Will. Ricky’s athletic gifts surpassed artistry.
Arenado, Kim/Bichette, Betts, Freeman. Teo, Robert Jr, Conforto. Snell, Yamamoto, Burnes/Flaherty, Glasnow, Ohtani, Gonsolin, Kershaw and whoever is left among Miller, Knack, Frasso, Wrobleski, Casparius.
Play ball.
Wow! AF has a lot of work to do then! I prefer Sasaki and Scott and then another bat which could be picked up at the deadline. I could give Outman and Pages a platoon in RF to start the year.For some reason Teo has not been prioritized. Maybe someone is allergic to sunflower seeds!
Forgot Sasaki. Put him in there.
Yo, Bear!
Hope your recovery is progressing and I recall you sometimes ask for research topics.
How about: Pitchers Who Hit.
Michael Lorenzen’s apparent bid to become classified as a two-way player had me thinking about this. I’m kind of annoyed by the whole “classification” business.
Perhaps I’m wrong about this, but before the DH, pitchers often were used as pinch-hitters and occasionally subs in the OF.
As a kid, I remember Drysdale’s power and wondered why he didn’t get the occasional start at 1B. Didn’t LaSorda sometimes use Fernando as a pinch hitter? A guy like Rick Ankiel might have best been used as a outfielder who could shift to pitching. (I seem to recall that some teams wanted to draft Alex Verdugo as a pitcher, while the Dodgers wanted him as a outfielder. Why not just draft him as a player? And remember when Russell Martin did mop up duty as a pitcher? He was throwing strikes in the low 90s.
Anyway, I am rooting for Lorenzen.
I think the game needs more so-called “two-way” players.
NYY to sign 1B Paul Goldschmidt for 1 year $12.5MM.
m
Got to believe AF is working some deal and that’s the holdup on Teo. Robert jr?
I’m not advocating an Arenado trade, I’m perfectly fine with Max at third, but for those of you talking about it, and comparing Arenado and Max, you are missing the boat. The comparison should be between Arenado and Lux, because I think Max would move to second. Is our defense better with Max at third, and Lux at second, or Arenado at third and Max at second. Offensively who is better Lux or Arenado?
With the shift now banned, Muncy would be a big detriment defensively at second. I just don’t get the fascination with Arenado at this stage of his career.
Me thinks Alonso may be very disappointed in his contract, whenever and wherever that might be.
Giants should try to jump in on Alonso, they’ve had a hard time getting players to take their money, here’s a player that is not stirring up the interest he expected. I haven’t even heard anything about the Mets wanting him back.
I’d be surprised if the Giants haven’t at least checked in on him. They could use a first baseman.
Jeff D. – Thanks for all of the great information you provide on a variety of topics. The scouting reports about MiLB prospects was terrific.
Perhaps you could explain this Cohen Rule and the 110% mark up up statement you made.
Superficially, it seems hard to understand what would be holding up a Teoscar signing for $66 million over 3 years. That seems pretty reasonable to me.
And to others. The Athletic had an article wondering what’s holding up this signing and of course it’s deferred money.
So do the Dodgers now in a position to have to demand that players they sign agree to deferred money? That’s a big ask, as some players just want the money.
But a closer look reveals a problem with $66 million due to tax over the “cap”. Oops, pardon me, there is no cap.
Can you explain this Cohen Tax in more detail so I understand exactly what the problem is?
Thanks
p.s. Bear I hope your ankle is getting better and you can start putting weight on it. Bless you.
I would rather have Arenaldo Kike Hernandez and Hesley the reliever and give cardinals Muncy Chris Tayor and Gavin Stone. Muncy can okay first base for cardinals and Arenaldo theidbasw for the Dodgers Kike is better hitter then Chris Taylor and Hensley over Gavin Stone the dodgers get e a guy in bullpen to take place of the reliever that retired
Diamondbacks and Guardians trade:
The D-Backs are sending right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance round B selection to the Guardians for Josh Naylor.
More pertinent is this article ($$$) from Rosenthal saying Dodgers are exploring alternatives if they can’t find a common price for Teo:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6011626/2024/12/21/dodgers-teoscar-hernandez-alternatives/
Probably just a negotiation press release, but…
Two of my favorites, and then one of the boards favorites:
Ha-Seong Kim, Suzuki and Luis Robert.
It’s important, for me, to note that the return for a Robert Jr. trade is:
“For Robert, the White Sox do not expect to receive multiple top prospects, but would want a “meaningful piece” in return, a source said.” That’s got AF written all over it.
So what/who is a meaningful piece?
Lux?
Rushing?
Pages?
Think I’d rather have Suzuki, but the Cubs supposedly aren’t anxious to trade him.
Maybe he’ll tell them he’s really unhappy being a DH and they’ll decide they don’t want an unhappy player in the clubhouse.
So The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers are indeed exploring options for right-handed bats in case Teo moves on:
“The potential options, according to sources briefed on the team’s discussions, include infielder Ha-Seong Kim in free agency and Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and others in trade,” Rosenthal wrote. “How serious the Dodgers are about those pursuits – and how realistic some of them might be – remains to be seen.”
I think any of those scenarios, Teo, Susiki, or Roberts would work.
Sad news to hear Rickey Henderson passed away. So young and healthy. He was the greatest leadoff hitter of all time and a top 20 player of all time. He retired as the MLB career leader in the most important statistic, runs scored. He also retired as the all time leader in stolen bases and walks. He impacted the game in so many ways: his hitting, base running, fielding and power. He was a great athlete who had numerous D1 football scholarship offers as a running back. He will be missed!