I have been trying to do an organizational dive into the LAD pitcher prospects. But now I have to wonder why. Just how many are going to be long term pitchers for LAD?
The Dodgers have told everyone who will listen that they plan on a 6-man rotation.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Blake Snell
- Tyler Glasnow
- Roki Sasaki (3 options)
- Tony Gonsolin (1 option)
- Dustin May (no options) or Landon Knack (2 options)
Since Dustin May has no options, he has to be considered in the #6 role until Ohtani joins the rotation, then moves to bullpen.
Bullpen
- Tanner Scott
- Kirby Yates
- Blake Treinen
- Evan Phillips
- Alex Vesia
- Anthony Banda
- Ryan Brasier
Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol will start the season on the IL. Room will need to be made on the 26 man once they are healthy. Currently, Kopech is going to miss at least April. If that is all he will miss, he should be able to rejoin LAD about the same time as Ohtani joins the rotation. Once Kopech is back, only Alex Vesia has an option, or there is going to be a mysterious injury. I know…another AF specialty.
That leaves MLB pitchers, Landon Knack (27), Bobby Miller (26), Ben Casparius (26), Justin Wrobleski (24) and MiLB pitcher Nick Frasso (26), all ready to pitch at the MLB level.
That is five pitchers that are not really considered top of the rotation starters (maybe Miller), and only Wrobleski is under 25. As long as they are with the Dodgers, their expected earning level is going to be diminished, as they are really only insurance for the LAD rotation.
I am sorry, but that is unfair to the pitcher. Knack, Miller, Casparius, and Wrobleski all have (or will have) WS rings. Now that they have that ring, I bet they want to pitch for a MLB team to enhance their earning power. They will all be on the other side of 30 before they can reach FA status. Their arbitration years will be diluted as long as they remain AAAA status. Knack, Miller, Wrobleski, and Frasso have 2 options remaining and Casparius has 3. They have only so many years to max out their earning power. I can’t imagine they are thrilled with spending as much time in AAA to prove themselves.
The same is true with the bullpen. The Dodgers have MLB pitchers Edgardo Henriquez (23) and Michael Grove (28), plus MiLB pitcher Jack Dreyer (26) in the OKC bullpen, with Giovanny Gallegos (33). Are the Dodgers trying to build a juggernaut AAA pitching staff? There is no room for the LAD AAAA starters to join the bullpen either. BTW, who is going to be that multi-inning reliever…the Brent Honeywell.
Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan are due to join the MLB team some time in the year. Timing for both is unknown, but Kersh will be ready sooner than Sheehan.
We also need to consider that Gavin Stone, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt will be ready for 2026. The domino affect starts to take over.
What becomes of these LAD top 30 prospects who are considered SP:
- Jackson Ferris – 22 years old at Tulsa (AA)
- Hyun-Seok Jang – 21 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
- Maddux Bruns – 22 years old at Great Lakes (A+)
- Patrick Copen – 23 years old at Great Lakes (A+)
- Jared Karros – 24 years old at Tulsa (AA)
- Peter Heubeck – 22 years old at Tulsa (AA)
- Samuel Sanchez – 19 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
- Payton Martin – 21 years old at Great Lakes (A+) or Tulsa (AA)
- Jakob Wright – 22 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
Other highly regarded SP who could land in some top 30 lists for LAD.
- Eriq Swan – 23 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A) or Great Lakes (A+)
- Jesus Tillero – 19 years old at LAD Arizona Complex League (Rookie)
- Carlos Duran – 23 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go. Or OKC (AAA) if reliever.
- Chris Campos – 24 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go.
- Jerming Rosario – 23 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go.
- Wyatt Crowell – 23 years old at Great Lakes (A+).
- Christian Zazueta – 20 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
There are at least 7 pitchers who can start at AA Tulsa, with no place to go as a starter. Some will become relievers along the way. Some will crash and burn. But the Dodgers pitching history seemingly dictates that many of their prospects will rise to MLB. There is also the possibility that someone in the DSL or ACL will develop better than anticipated and rise to MLB. One example is 2023 3rd round draft pick Brady Smith (20 years old). Smith has not yet pitched professionally. He had TJ surgery in June 2023.
MLB Pipeline draft scouting report on Brady Smith:
Despite getting a late start on the diamond because he played basketball over the winter, Smith has come out firing at 90-93 mph and reaching 95 with arm-side run on his fastball. He should gain more velocity once he adds some strength to his skinny 6-foot-2 frame. He notches high spin rates on two distinct breaking pitches — an upper-70s curveball that grades as plus, and a low-80s slider with more lateral break.
Smith also has feel for a low-80s changeup with fade and depth that he hasn’t needed much against prep competition. While he lacks size, he compensates with athleticism and arm speed. He has a clean delivery and no trouble filling the strike zone.
As a senior, Smith tossed 35.1 IP, with an ERA of 0.40 and a K/BB of 77/14.
Smith is going to get a lot of looks this year. Because of the TJ surgery, LAD will be careful with him, but once he is cleared, he could get a fast track.
At what point do the Dodgers start trimming?
My biggest concern right now…will LAD have enough room for Clayton Kershaw? There is a growing number of pundits who do not think he will be a Dodger in 2025. I am working on a book report on Andy McCullough’s biography on Clayton: The Last Of His Kind – Clayton Kershaw – The Burden Of Greatness. Kersh is loyal to a fault, but suffice to say right now, his relationship with both Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts could be better. It is not bad, but it could be better.
If Kershaw does not re-sign with LAD, I will not be a happy camper.
Great stuff. I too have my eye on that group of five: Knack, Miller, Wrobleski, Casparius & Frasso. Where will they go?
What makes you say Kershaw’s relationships with Dave and Andrew could be better? C’mon, can’t throw a comment out like that and not expect us to ask!
The Yates signing might be an indication that the injury to Kopech is worse than they let out.
Now put the finishint touch on a great offseason and trade for Robert jun.
Outman, Knack or Wrobleski, Fiduccia plus Bruns for Robert jun.
Get great defense in CF with 35 HR potential with 3 more years of financial control, get great defense at 2b with Edman moving there.
IMHO a no brainer.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Depth. We’ve been alluding to this, well, some of us have anyway, for months. Why is it so important? Looking at stats explains exactly why. There is nobody on this staff that guarantees 27 starts and 150 innings. NOBODY.
There was a stat mentioned yesterday, I think it was yesterday, that said over 40% of all outs in whatever span was generated via the bullpen. Jeff can expound on that if he chooses, nobody I know is better with numbers than him. Starters make the big bucks but those guys are long gone when games are won and lost. Innings pitched for the entire postseason last year – Flaherty 22, Yamamoto 18.2, Buehler 15. Glasnow wasn’t even there. 142 total innings pitched and there are your leaders. Flaherty’s ERA for those 22 innings was 7.36. Yamamoto’s was 3.86. I don’t find these stats at all impressive.
So what to do? Stack pitching high and deep. Smart move.
As funny as it sounds, I won’t be shocked if we’re sellers come trade deadline.
Not because we’ll be out of the race, but because we have so many relievers that we could hypothetically, a Kirby Yates for some top 100 prospects at the deadline and stockpile our farm with potential impact kids. It’d save cash, lessen the tax burden, stockpile the farm, and we’d likely still have a few impact arms ready to replace him.
I won’t be shocked at all if we’re buying now to sell high in 8 months
Neither the Yates nor Scott deals have been officially announced yet. There will have to be a roster move whenever the second of the two is announced. Roster stands at 39 right now. I would think Grove has the most chance of being traded or DFA’d
Mlbtr.com is reporting that Andrew is shopping Brasier.
Sure, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and now Roki Sasaki are reasons why Japan’s baseball fans love Dodger baseball. But then there is Mookie:
Fernando Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado could have done this, but they did not.
Jeff, I share your thoughts on the fairness to young players when so many free agents push them down the pecking order.
It would help if a team with a ace and 4 #5s and nothing in their system would trade that ace for volume.
It’s funny, I was listing the Dodger pitchers the other day and came up with 25 pitchers excluding Kopech, Graterol and the 4 pitchers out until 2026. And my list had none of the prospects that Jeff listed in the top 30.
That is truly a wealth of pitching talent.
And I agree that many on the list are getting screwed out of an MLB career elsewhere, as their clock ticks.
The stockpiling of pitching talent is nothing new. When I played the Dodger minor league teams in the early 70’s, before free agency, you would see a differ bunch of pitchers from series to series. Tons of player movement, during the season. And they seemed to prefer tall, athletic, surfer dudes who could light it up. To the best of my recollection.
I’m not sure the statement “you can never have enough pitching” is actually true. Or fair.
I wonder if AF has bought into that concept and has loaded up with this abundance of arms, due to paranoia?
I belief the Dodgers used 39 pitchers and 17 starting pitchers in 2023. We ended up going 3 and out, post-season with Kershaw, Miller and Lynn. The last 3 Musketeers.
Last year it was a completely different outcome. The bullpen was magnificent, but the starting stand was depleted. again. We used a record 40 pitchers and 17 starters in 2024.
So maybe you never can have enough pitching?
Angels signed Tim Anderson to a minor league deal.
Just checked, Sasaki is on OKC’s roster.
This is a big story.
More on Mookie at a Tokyo elementary school.
if the Dodgers are looking at position players, I’d like them to find a young good third baseman. Were good with Muncy but he will be done in a year maybe two. The Front Office might be comfortable Hose but looking down the road third baseman will need to be addressed
Dave Stewart has joined the A’s as a special assistant.
Has to be #22, right?
I’m glad you focused on this topic.
The additions of Snell, Sasaki, Scott and Yates–all as free agents–block several young guys ready to make their mark. So does the return of Shohei to the mound. He was also a free agent, of course.
Trades are much more interesting than just writing big checks. And the Dodgers wealth of talent is one reason why I think the Dodgers shouldn’t try to “win” trades of seemingly equal value.
If there’s a trade target they truly covet, AF and BG could do an overpay to enhance the possibility of a “win-win.” (If Peter Huebeck had been added to the Busch trade, would we miss him?)
Apart from Luis Robert Jr., who might the Dodgers truly covet?
For that matter, maybe the brass isn’t interested in Robert at all. Perhaps the injury history is too much of a red flag.
But there must be some rising prospects out there who are blocked on other team…
A possible 3rd baseman for the Dodgers next year is Munetaka Murakami. Also known as Japan’s Aaron Judge, might get posted next winter.
Sasaki is ranked the No. 1 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. He’s just the second Dodger since 1990 to claim the top spot at BA, along with Corey Seager in 2016.
Six Dodgers were ranked among the top 100 prospects in baseball entering the 2025 season by Baseball America.
Rushing, Hope, De Paula, Ferris, and Freeland were also ranked in the top 101 prospects at Baseball Prospectus last week.
The MLB Pipeline top-100 list will be unveiled on Friday.
Just a thought after another whirlwind week in Dodgerland.
In hindsight, given that AF appears to be carrying out his oft mentioned desire “to be pigs”, is it a bit of a surprise that he didn’t go the extra (albeit ridiculous) mile and lock up the generational talent that is Juan Soto? Not even in his prime, he would certainly have helped, along with the signings of Sasaki and Kim, the Dodgers to get younger.
Money and Luxury Taxes really don’t seem to be an issue so was wondering why he didn’t pull the trigger. On the other side of the coin, it’s seems incredible to me that Soto wouldn’t forgoe the extra dollars in exchange for potentially playing for a ring for the duration of his contract. He would never spend $600m (what AF allegedly offered) let alone the $700+M that he got from
the Mets, so why not get onboard if the offer was there?
Ive said all along that I feel a big trade or number of trades are coming – quite simply because we have too many players blocked, and no real pathway for them, particularly now on the SP
front.
A package or packages of this quality would bring back some very good MLB quality players.
I like the 3B at Colorado – McMahon, as well as Duran of Boston who Jeff mentioned.
Tanner Scott deal done. He will complete the 40 man.