LAD Organizational Pitching Depth

I have been trying to do an organizational dive into the LAD pitcher prospects.  But now I have to wonder why.  Just how many are going to be long term pitchers for LAD?

The Dodgers have told everyone who will listen that they plan on a 6-man rotation.

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto
• Blake Snell
• Tyler Glasnow
• Roki Sasaki (3 options)
• Tony Gonsolin (1 option)
• Dustin May (no options) or Landon Knack (2 options)

Since Dustin May has no options, he has to be considered in the #6 role until Ohtani joins the rotation, then moves to bullpen.

Bullpen

• Tanner Scott
• Kirby Yates
• Blake Treinen
• Evan Phillips
• Alex Vesia
• Anthony Banda
• Ryan Brasier

Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol will start the season on the IL.  Room will need to be made on the 26 man once they are healthy.  Currently, Kopech is going to miss at least April.  If that is all he will miss, he should be able to rejoin LAD about the same time as Ohtani joins the rotation.  Once Kopech is back, only Alex Vesia has an option, or there is going to be a mysterious injury.  I know…another AF specialty.

That leaves MLB pitchers, Landon Knack (27), Bobby Miller (26), Ben Casparius (26), Justin Wrobleski (24) and MiLB pitcher Nick Frasso (26), all ready to pitch at the MLB level.

That is five pitchers that are not really considered top of the rotation starters (maybe Miller), and only Wrobleski is under 25.  As long as they are with the Dodgers, their expected earning level is going to be diminished, as they are really only insurance for the LAD rotation.

I am sorry, but that is unfair to the pitcher.  Knack, Miller, Casparius, and Wrobleski all have (or will have) WS rings.  Now that they have that ring, I bet they want to pitch for a MLB team to enhance their earning power.  They will all be on the other side of 30 before they can reach FA status.  Their arbitration years will be diluted as long as they remain AAAA status.  Knack, Miller, Wrobleski, and Frasso have 2 options remaining and Casparius has 3.  They have only so many years to max out their earning power. I can’t imagine they are thrilled with spending as much time in AAA to prove themselves.

The same is true with the bullpen.  The Dodgers have MLB pitchers Edgardo Henriquez (23) and Michael Grove (28), plus MiLB pitcher Jack Dreyer (26) in the OKC bullpen, with Giovanny Gallegos (33).  Are the Dodgers trying to build a juggernaut AAA pitching staff?  There is no room for the LAD AAAA starters to join the bullpen either.  BTW, who is going to be that multi-inning reliever…the Brent Honeywell.

Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan are due to join the MLB team some time in the year.  Timing for both is unknown, but Kersh will be ready sooner than Sheehan.

We also need to consider that Gavin Stone, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt will be ready for 2026.  The domino affect starts to take over.

What becomes of these LAD top 30 prospects who are considered SP:

• Jackson Ferris – 22 years old at Tulsa (AA)
• Hyun-Seok Jang – 21 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
• Maddux Bruns – 22 years old at Great Lakes (A+)
• Patrick Copen – 23 years old at Great Lakes (A+)
• Jared Karros – 24 years old at Tulsa (AA)
• Peter Heubeck – 22 years old at Tulsa (AA)
• Samuel Sanchez – 19 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
• Payton Martin – 21 years old at Great Lakes (A+) or Tulsa (AA)
• Jakob Wright – 22 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)

Other highly regarded SP who could land in some top 30 lists for LAD.

• Eriq Swan – 23 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A) or Great Lakes (A+)
• Jesus Tillero – 19 years old at LAD Arizona Complex League (Rookie)
• Carlos Duran – 23 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go. Or OKC (AAA) if reliever.
• Chris Campos – 24 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go.
• Jerming Rosario – 23 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go.
• Wyatt Crowell – 23 years old at Great Lakes (A+).
• Christian Zazueta – 20 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)

There are at least 7 pitchers who can start at AA Tulsa, with no place to go as a starter.  Some will become relievers along the way.  Some will crash and burn.  But the Dodgers pitching history seemingly dictates that many of their prospects will rise to MLB.  There is also the possibility that someone in the DSL or ACL will develop better than anticipated and rise to MLB.  One example is 2023 3^rd round draft pick Brady Smith (20 years old).  Smith has not yet pitched professionally.  He had TJ surgery in June 2023.

MLB Pipeline draft scouting report on Brady Smith:

Despite getting a late start on the diamond because he played basketball over the winter, Smith has come out firing at 90-93 mph and reaching 95 with arm-side run on his fastball. He should gain more velocity once he adds some strength to his skinny 6-foot-2 frame. He notches high spin rates on two distinct breaking pitches — an upper-70s curveball that grades as plus, and a low-80s slider with more lateral break.

 Smith also has feel for a low-80s changeup with fade and depth that he hasn’t needed much against prep competition. While he lacks size, he compensates with athleticism and arm speed. He has a clean delivery and no trouble filling the strike zone.

 As a senior, Smith tossed 35.1 IP, with an ERA of 0.40 and a K/BB of 77/14.

Smith is going to get a lot of looks this year.  Because of the TJ surgery, LAD will be careful with him, but once he is cleared, he could get a fast track.

At what point do the Dodgers start trimming?

My biggest concern right now…will LAD have enough room for Clayton Kershaw?  There is a growing number of pundits who do not think he will be a Dodger in 2025.  I am working on a book report on Andy McCullough’s biography on Clayton: The Last Of His Kind – Clayton Kershaw – The Burden Of Greatness.  Kersh is loyal to a fault, but suffice to say right now, his relationship with both Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts could be better.  It is not bad, but it could be better.

If Kershaw does not re-sign with LAD, I will not be a happy camper.