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A Statcast Peak at LAD Hitters

There has been a lot of recent discussion as to what the Dodgers should do after 25 games.  It is a good thing that Dodger management has the long view, and not over-reacting to struggles and slow starts to the season for some.  As bad as they have played lately (and yes it has been bad), they are still only a game out of the NL West Division lead.  Again as bad as they have played lately, they are a 104 win pace.  The same people who were complaining about the Dodgers last year, and then saying they were behind them all the way when they won the WS, are right back to complaining again.

If you believe that the way the Dodgers have played in their first 25 games is emblematic as to how they will play the rest of the way, I do not share that belief.  Does that make me a Dodger apologist?  I can wear that, and wear it proudly.

I think the Statcast page for each of the players is a good barometer as to where that player could be at statistically.

For the LAD regulars, Max Muncy seems to be struggling more than the others.

For 2025 – Max Muncy – 85 PA/73 AB – .178/.282/.247/.529 – 0 HR, 4 RBI, 36.5 K% – RISP (21 PA) – .125/.286/.250/.536.

Is this just a slow start?  Remember in 2022 when Muncy began implementing a “back-step” in his hitting motion, sliding his left foot back slightly as he loaded up to hit.  This adjustment was a result of struggling with his swing mechanics.

For 2022 Max slashed .196/.329/.384/.713 in 565 PA.  He improved in 2023, but not to his usual standards: .212/.333/.475/.808 in 579 PA.  In 2024, Max only had 293 PA due to oblique injury.

 

Max Muncy

 

When Max hits the ball, he hits it hard, but he is not making nearly enough contact.  He is in the 2nd percentile in K rate.  He still has a good eye, as he does not chase (76th percentile).  Combining his very good chase rate with his horrible K rate, it is clear that Max is not hitting pitches in the zone.  Not a good metric for a power hitting 3B.

Per Max it is his mechanics again that are a problem.  Dodgers hitting coach Aaron Bates recently said of Muncy’s struggles,

“Max has natural loft in his swing. A lot of lefties do. So I think he doesn’t need to artificially try to elevate the baseball. For him, trying to think more line drive is just going to keep him above the ball longer.”

 

However, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic noted that it’s caused Muncy to develop bad habits.

He’d lurch his shoulders forward, restricting his hips from properly rotating and generating power. His contact point has moved ever so slightly closer to the pitcher; instead of that being sharply hit pulled fly balls, it’s been weak contact or no contact at all. By not giving himself enough time, he stopped seeing the ball as well.”

 

Muncy acknowledged

“That was causing me to be just not on time with any single pitch that was thrown,” Muncy said.  “It was kind of just a misunderstanding of how my body works in terms of my swing.”

Max will turn 35 in August.  Is age creeping in?  Is it mechanics?  Are bad habits more difficult to break at his age?

No, his peripherals are not all that encouraging, but before I give up on Max, I want to see what he does after he gets that 1st HR.  If the Dodgers do need to make a change Alex Freeland will still be there to pick up.

 

Another struggling hitter in the LAD lineup is Mookie Betts.  After a 3-5 night, in 97 PA/83 AB, Mookie is now slashing .253/.361/.434/.795.  In his professional career, Mookie has never had an OPS south of .800.  His lowest OPS with LAD was .854 (2021).

I do not buy that it is his early season stomach virus that is the cause of his current struggles.  His first 15 games after the illness, Mookie was hitting .304/.400/.554/.954. All four of his HRs were hit in his first 15 games. I think Mookie is just in a funk right now, but I would feel better if his Statcast peripherals were better.

 

Mookie Betts – 2025

 

 

For comparison purposes, here is Mookie’s 2023 Statcast page (last full year).  It took a herculean season from Ronald Acuña Jr. to beat Mookie from his 2nd MVP season.

 

Mookie Betts – 2023

Is it age?  He is an elite athlete, but he is 32.  Or could it be he is worrying too much about being an elite SS?  FWIW, per defensive metrics, Mookie is one of the best MLB SS defensively.  He is having a far better year defensively than Willy Adames, the SS many wanted the Dodgers to sign.  This year, Mookie is better defensively than Miggy Ro thus far (yes VERY small sample size).  Miggy is a below league average defender at 3B and SS.

I would prefer Mookie concentrate more on hitting than his defense.  But I am not one of  Mookie’s coaches.

 

Shohei Ohtani is also having a rough start to the 2025 season.  In 23 games (106 PA/92 AB), Shohei is slashing .261/.358/.489/.848.  He has 6 HR and 5 SB.  Last year, in his first 23 games, Ohtani slashed .359/.419/.630/1.049 with 4 HRs and 5 SB.  He has 8 RBI vs 11 he had last year.  So like this year, in 2024, Shohei came to the plate with little traffic to drive in.  The big difference?  Last year Ohtani had 11 doubles after his first 23 games, while this year he has 1.

 

Shohei – 2025

His 2025 Statcast page still shows an elite player.  Compare that to his unworldly 2024 Statcast page.

 

Shohei – 2024

 

What is the cause of his slow start in 2025.  He was supposed to push back his pitching so he could concentrate on his hitting.  It did not help.  Could it be that his shoulder injury was/is a bigger factor than what we are being led to believe?  Contrary to many beliefs, Shohei is still a human being.  Could it be that his wife’s pregnancy and birth of his first child is a factor?  I am comfortable that Shohei will come out of his early 2025 funk sooner rather than later.

Shohei wRISP – 14 PA – .200/.429/.200/.629 – Not very Shohei like.

One other thing, if I was put in charge, I would listen to Shohei to determine whether he could work on his pitching and hitting at the same time. And I am not saying that the Dodgers do not.   After all, he has done it before for multiple seasons, and done it at an elite level.

The Dodgers have not been able to trot out Freddie Freeman as often as they have in the past.  It is tough to gauge how well a player used to playing every game has played in only 14 of the first 25 games.  Freddie has 55 PA/48 AB thus far.  He is hitting .250/.327/.583/.911.  His SLG has been buoyed by 4 doubles and 4 HR in his 12 hits.  Freddie’s Statcast peripherals give reason to be optimistic that Freddie will get back on track.

 

Freddie Freeman

 

One concern, again, is Freddie’s age (35).  His ankle is going to be slow to fully heal.  Will it keep Freddie out of multiple future games?  Will it impact his hitting?

Without these four playing at or near their expected levels, the Dodgers are necessarily going to struggle. None of the four are playing at their norm, and when they do, the offense will take off.  And IMO, there is no reason to think they will not after only 25 games.  Of the 4, the one I am most concerned with is Muncy.  His peripherals at his age are reasons for concern.  But not to the point of demanding a change.  The Dodgers are already sitting Max against many LHP.  If he is still hitting this poorly on May 28, then maybe the team will take a look at Alex Freeland to play 3B.

 

Other Statcast reviews:

 

Michael Conforto – 87 PA/71 AB – .197/.345/.338/.683

Michael Conforto’s 2025 Statcast peripherals have fallen way off thus far in 2025 compared to 2024.  His swing is too good to not be able to turn things around.

 

 

 

I certainly hope that Conforto moves positively closer to 2024’s numbers.  If so, the Dodgers will have another valuable bat in the lineup.  IMO, his swing augments such a move.  Time will tell if it does come to fruition.

 

Teoscar Hernández – 93 PA/89 AB – .270/.290/.528/.818 – wRISP (23 PA/22 AB) – .409/.391/.864/1.255 with 3 HR’s and 16 RBI.

 

Teoscar Hernández’s 2025 Statcast peripherals have also dropped from his 2024 season.

 

 

 

 

 

In both cases, a question has to be…are these OF aging poorly?  Neither are good defensively or even adequate.  That will continue to regress as they age.  But my concern is for 2025, and I am hopeful that both will get closer to their 2024 peripherals.

 

Andy Pages – 81 PA/71 AB – .183/.284/.33/.650

As much negativity as Pages has received from a defensive standpoint, it is his offense that shows how poor his Statcast peripherals have been this year.  Pages has been showing improved ABs of late.  In his last 6 games, in 22 PA/20 AB – .300/.364/.600/.964 – 2 HRs and 5 RBI.

I have never seen any reason to trade the prospect capital for Luis Robert Jr.  I was not sure that Pages was the answer, but the Dodgers do think he warrants a long runway.  It would certainly help out the team if they did not have to worry about filling in Pages’ name in the lineup.  If he does not, the Dodgers do have internal options rather than giving away a true prospect for someone as dubious as Luis Robert Jr.

I know that some may not believe it, but this year according to some meaningful defensive metrics, Pages has been a better defensive CF than Robert Jr. I am certain that the optics seem to bely that look. I have been a James Outman fan, but I believe that Pages has been handed the position, and he has the right to that long runway.

 

 

 

There are a couple of very positive starts this year.

Will Smith – 75 PA/60 AB – .350/.453/.567/1.020 – 3 HR, 15 RBI – wRISP with 19 PA/15 AB – .733/.684/1.067/1.751.  That is not a typo.  He has 11 hits in 15 AB wRISP including 2 doubles and 1 HR.

Here are Smith’s 2025 Statcast peripherals.

 

 

 

 

And Tommy Edman – 103 PA/96 AB – .260/.291/.552/.843 – 8 HR, 19 RBI – wRISP with 18 PA/15 AB – .333/.333/1.067/1.400 – 3 HR, 13 RBI.

Tommy Edman has become a prolific hitter from both sides of the plate.  His 8 HRs is #2 in NL behind Corbin Carroll’s 9 HRs.  His 19 RBIs rank #10.

Edman is also the top defensive player on the team.  He is an elite defensive 2B winning a GG in 2021.  He is also the team’s best defensive CF.

Tommy Edman 2025 Statcast page.

 

 

Bottom line, I am optimistic that this team will gel and reach the WS.  But that is not to dismiss the concerns.  The peripherals seem to be going the wrong way for some key personnel, but with only 25 games played, that can turn around. Let’s be patient and see where the players are at the end of May.  If changes need to be made, I trust AF will make the right decisions.  But I would take a chance on bringing up MiLB players as opposed to trades.  If brought up by June 1, that would give the team 2 months to make an impression.  If the results are not positive, then trades can be considered.

Just my opinion.

 

MiLB GAME SUMMARIES

 

OKC Comets 10 – Salt Lake City Bees (LAA) 7

This was not Justin Jarvis’ best outing.  He did get through 5.2 innings, but he allowed 5 runs on 7 hits on 3 BB and 4 K.

Dalton Rushing and James Outman combined for seven hits and four extra-base hits as the Oklahoma City Comets offense scored in double digits during a 10-7 win over the Salt Lake Bees Thursday night.

 

 

 

This was a season-high and Triple-A career-high four hits for Rushing.

Outman set a season high with three hits and tied his season high with three RBI, going 3-for-5 with a home run and a double. He extended his current hitting streak to eight games, during which he has seven extra-base hits while going 11-for-32 (.344) overall.  During his 8 game streak, in 33 PA and 32 AB, Outman is slashing .344/.364/.719/1.083.

The Comets (17-7) shot out of the gate with four runs in the first inning, including a bases-clearing double by Hunter Feduccia. However, the Bees scored three runs in the first inning and another in the second inning to tie the game, 4-4. On the first pitch of the fifth inning, Rushing hit a home run to regain the lead. Later with two outs, Outman also went deep. With the Comets leading, 6-5, in the seventh inning, they scored four runs, with a two-run double by Outman and two-run single by Justin Dean.

Salt Lake scored one run in each of the eighth and ninth innings off Ben Harris, and brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth inning following a two-out error, but Jack Little then struck out Mitchell Daly to end the game and earn his 5th save.

The Comets have won six straight games for the second time this season, joining a previous six-game win streak March 29-April 4. The Comets have now won seven of their last eight games as they improved to a league-best 17-7.

Hunter Feduccia rapped two doubles and a collected a season-high three RBI. Feduccia is batting .356 over his 14 games with OKC this season.

Ryan Ward and Justin Dean also finished with multi-hit games and each notched a double. Dean also recorded his first two RBI of the season with a two-run single.

The Comets set a season high with six doubles, as eight of their 14 hits Thursday went for extra bases.

  • Dalton Rushing – 4-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double (1), HR (3) –
  • James Outman – 3-5, 2 runs, 3 RBI, double (7), HR (5) – season high with three hits and tied his season high with three RBI.
  • Hunter Feduccia – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 3 RBI, 2 doubles (5)
  • Ryan Ward – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, double (5)
  • Justin Dean – 2-4, 2 RBI, double (3)

 

Score Board

 

Tulsa Drillers 4 – NW Arkansas Naturals (KC) 2

During his time with the Tulsa Drillers, José Ramos has had several key hits, including some important home runs, but he has never put together a streak like his current one. Ramos had two more hits on Thursday night, including another homer, to extend his hitting streak to eight straight games and to lead Tulsa to a 4-2 victory over Northwest Arkansas.

It was the second straight win for the Drillers who improved their season record to 7-11. Unsurprisingly, five of those wins have come during Ramos’ hot streak.

The big night from Ramos started quickly. After Chris Newell drew a four-pitch walk to open the game, Ramos belted his sixth home run of the season to stake Tulsa to a quick lead.

The Drillers stretched the margin to 4-0 with single runs in both the third and fourth innings.

In the third, Ramos singled and came home on Damon Keith’s double (6).

Ezequiel Pagan led off the fourth with a triple (1) and scored on Frank Rodriguez’s double (2).

Tulsa starting pitcher Jared Karros opened with three scoreless innings before surrendering two runs in the fourth on a pair of two-out hits.

Karros escaped the inning with a 4-2 lead, but his night ended there as the bullpen completed the game with five shutout innings.

Ramos’ eight-game hitting streak matches his longest as a Driller. He also had an eight-game streak in August of last season, but it was not as productive as his current run. In last year’s stretch, he went 10-30 (.300) with one home run. In his current eight-game streak, he is 11-27 (.407) with five of the hits being homers.

The six home runs for Ramos lead the Texas League.

  • José Ramos – 2-5, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (6)
  • Chris Newell – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs
  • Damon Keith – 2-4, 1 RBI, double (6)
  • Frank Rodriguez – 2-4, 1 RBI, double (1)
  • Triples – Ezequiel Pagan (1)

 

Box Score

 

Great Lakes Loons 3 – Lake County Captains (Cleveland) 1

Great Lakes Loons pitching was sensational, striking out 11 Lake County Captains  in a 3-1 win.

Patrick Copen struck out seven Captains batters and stranded five runners. The right-hander worked around a single, walk, and a hit batsman in the second. Copen punched out two more in the fourth and his first of the fifth. The 23-year-old finished 5.2 innings.

In the third, after two Copen strikeouts, Lake County got a walk and single. A Johnny Tincher single was next lined into left field, Kole Myers would field it and fire it home where Nelson Quiroz applied a tag on Jaison Chourio trying to score, ending the inning.

The Great Lakes offense benefited from Lake County’s mistakes. In the second inning, an error at second put Kendall George aboard. He stole second base and later scored on a Jackson Humphries wild pitch.

In the top of the third, Logan Wagner was hit by a pitch. Josue De Paula delivered his first of two singles, and a Jordan Thompson sac fly would bring home Wagner.

Kendall George would get two more swipes in the sixth. Reaching on a walk, George took second and third base. He became the third player in the Midwest League to 10 stolen bases. Joe Vetrano with two outs and a two-strike pitch roped an RBI double (4) to left field, to make it 3-0.

In the bottom of the eighth, Lake County scored an unearned run. Esteban Gonzalez led off the inning with a single, stole second, and moved to third after a groundout. An error at shortstop after a Tincher grounder with two outs let Gonzalez score.

 

Box Score

 

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5 – Inland Empire 66ers (LAA) 1

Fresh off his Cal League Pitcher of the Week Award from last week’s work, Sean Paul Linan turned in another gem, as the Quakes beat the Inland Empire 66ers on Thursday night by a final of 5-1.

Linan matched a career-high with 11 strikeouts, surrendering just two hits and one walk over five scoreless.

The California League is very much a hitter’s league, and yet Linan is absolutely dominating.  How long before he gets bumped to Great Lakes?

 

Linan got all the help he needed in the third, as José Meza smashed his first homer of the year, a three-run shot off Inland Empire starter Francis Texido, giving Rancho a 3-0 lead.

Gio Cueto followed later in the inning with his first career RBI, a run-scoring single to make it 4-0.

Eduardo Quintero ripped a solo-shot (3) in the fourth, as Rancho added to their advantage, making it 5-0.

Inland broke up the would-be shutout in the ninth with two outs, as Logan Tabeling was touched for his first run of the year.

The Quakes (11-7) are four games over .500 for the first time this year and now have a four-game lead over the Visalia Rawhide in the South Division.

On Friday, Quakes Christian Zazueta will take on Inland Empire’s Peyton Olejnik in game four of the six-game set.

  • Eduardo Quintero – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (3)
  • José Meza – 1-3, 2 BB, 1 RBI, HR (1)
  • Gio Cueto – 1-2, 2 BB, 1 RBI

 

Box Score

 

 

Jeff Dominique

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Michael Norris

Fans do this every time the Dodgers go into a funk. It happens every year and though I get why they gripe so much, it gets old. Baseball is a hard mistress. There are so many ups and downs, and we think we know better than those who get paid a lot of money to run teams. There has even been complaining about how Roberts handles the pitching staff. Considering injuries to Treinen and Snell, with neither expected back soon. The performance of the pen had been pretty decent up until this little streak that they have had lately. I saw one poster right that they thought Dreyer would take over as the closer based on his performance, well that blew up in Chicago on Wednesday. Of the Cubs 18 runs in the two games, 14 of them came off of Dreyer, Davis and May. Had those guys pitched better, we would be talking about two wins, not back-to-back losses. It won’t get any easier tonight, most likely the Pirates will pitch their ace, Paul Skenes. LA better be ready for him. Ram, Rushing has been learning 1B and LF. I think he has too much on his plate to start learning 3rd. And the ball gets there pretty fast. The reason some say Smith could move to third is because he at least has played there some. But that was when he was in college.

Michael Norris

Pitching matchups for the series with the Pirates. Skenes V Yamamoto, Keller V Sasaki, Falter V Glasnow.

Dave

I’m not sure why people.complain about people complaining. We all are expressing our opinions, some agree,some don’t. But let them spout off. You know what they say about a broken clock!

Dionysus

Really good piece. Raises more questions than provides answers, but that’s true of all good writing.

Excited about the potential of Rushing & Freeland [not to mention Feduccia!]. Intrigued by the comeback potential of Outman & Ramos [the latter to AAA soon]. Fascinated by the Augers and Linans & Copens of the system.

Also, a homegrown OF of Hope/George or Quintero/De Paul by 2028? Yes please!

Badger

So the stats say both Mookie and Pages are good defensive players.

OK. Guess you can’t argue the stats. I know I’ve rolled my eyes more watching Pages than any Dodger player (including Muncy) and I still cringe every time Mookie sidearms a low off target throw to first. But, numbers don’t lie. Or do they.

I think I’m off the Robert Jr bandwagon. I know he’s in a bad situation there in Chicago but if he doesn’t care enough to improve, or he’s just as bad as his numbers suggests he is, screw it. Good luck in Chicago Luis.

I believe the top of the lineup will start hitting eventually. I don’t believe the bottom will ever start thumping but I do believe they will all reach the Mendoza line. Yippee.

Bobby

Great to see Outman waking up. It’d be great for us if he has figured it out, as he’d give us some nice options up here.

Michael Norris

Outman’s BA up to .214. His OPS is above .750 now too. He is streaky, and a much better CF than Pages. Shown more power too. I would love to see him get one more shot.

OhioDodger

Great stuff Jeff. Thanks.

John

Though May didn’t pitch well there was a lot of bad luck involved. I remember three dink hits. The ball hit to centerfield Edman should have caught. It would have been a good catch not a great one. A hit was credited to the Cubs that Hernandez should have easily caught plus the error on Hernandez. May caused a lot of his own problems by walking or pitching from behind in the count but I don’t think his line was an indication on how he pitched. May will be fine.

This fascination with Roberts Jr. needs to stop. Yes he won a gold glove but so did Matt Kemp. Kemp wasn’t exactly Willie Mays out in CF. It happened when Kemp had a great year on offense the same with Roberts Jr. Offense isn’t suppose to be involved in selecting a player for the gold glove but all of us know that isn’t the case.

is all the base stealing on the pitching staff or the catchers? Unfortunately walks have turned into doubles way to many times. For those paying attention the same phenomenon is happening at OKC.

Finally speaking of catchers at OKC, we have three catchers that happen to be very good hitters. I would think one of the three would bring a good player back in a trade. Catchers that can hit don’t fall off of trees. With Smith locked up for a while it would be logical that we could trade one of those catchers for either help at LA or bring in another stud prospects.

Make Mine Blue

Does anyone remember how bad Bellinger became after Kike destroyed his shoulder? It took Bellinger years, yes years to find his form again. I think Ohtani is having very poor at bats due to not really being recovered from shoulder injury and subsequent surgery. I said it before, an Ortho surgeon, who happened to be the Ortho for the Cal Bears football team, told me that big surgeries take at least a full year to recover, strength of the joint is the major hinderance to full recovery. We may just be looking at a very down year for Ohtani. We saw the same thing after Lux destroyed his knee, more than a year to get his strength back in that joint, now he is doing pretty well (started after the AS break)

philjones

Very good post Jeff D.
*Dave said “I’m not sure why people.complain about people complaining. We all are expressing our opinions, some agree, some don’t. But let them spout off. You know what they say about a broken clock!”
You know what they say about opinions…………… but posters here usually offer their opinions because they give a shit. 
That’s the fun of a blog. If everybody either didn’t express their opinions and sat around and sang “Everything is Beautiful, this site wouldn’t be any fun.
Bear’s complaining that everybody is too negative and that it happens every year is correct. We are spoiled as hell. And it won’t change. It looks to me like he may be a little too close to the sun.
Nobody, as far as I know, is being forced to read Dodger Chronicles.  
While being asked to be patient with the team’s performance, similar patience should be extended to the posters who care enough to post their opinions.

Johnny Gentle

Zazueta ranked #10 in new Fangraphs’ list. This is my shocked face.

Bumsrap

I read a few days ago that Betts said Edman has helped him a lot regarding SS defense. Plus the Dodgers first base coach is a great infield coach.

Baltimore needs Rojas more than do the Dodgers.

Michael Norris

Twins outrighted Diego Cartaya.

Michael Norris

Fans are going to complain, I get it. They are just stating their opinion on the play of the team. Some do go way overboard though. Some writers go overboard also. I have seen some ideas for trades that make me scratch my head. Outman for Robert Jr. is out there almost daily on Yahoo Sports. One today had LA trading for Nick Martinez, a starter, from the Reds for either Outman or Rushing. Dodgers claimed Yoendrys Gomez from the Yankees.

Johnny Gentle

Long reliever incoming

OhioDodger

49 Years Ago Today: Rick Monday Saved the American Flag and Became a Hero

Michael Norris

Smith back in the lineup, Freeman back in the 3 hole. Muncy batting 8th and Pages 9th.

Claude Osteen

Geat post Jeff. One thing that could be concerning is all the Bat Speeds being so low. Is that age catching up to all our guys? I know, only 25 games so far but concerning. Many posters are criticizing the bottom producers for our team but, as Bear says, too early, you are all complainers. Remember how great we did in 22 and 23, we were able to get to the first round to get humiliated, why criticize, a successful season, right? (Sarcasm alert). I think we should worry and should criticize. Somewhere I read that Roberts is using this time to see how players react to adversity. Sorry, I call bs. Bad play and bad decisions are causing it. We are basing our hopes and dreams on A pitcher coming back from TJ #2 (always works out), pitchers coming back from all sorts of surgeries and starters/ relievers with long time records of injuries. I know, nothing is guaranteed but I worry and criticize. It isn’t all rainbows, unicorns and lollipops on our team. And yes, I have also watched this team for many decades so am considered an old timer as well.

Last edited 1 month ago by Claude Osteen

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