First, yes I will acknowledge that the team is looking sluggish, slow, and old. That is not arguable. Is it a concern? It has to be, but it appears to be more of a concern to fans than it is to LAD Owners and AF/BG. The team has exactly one position player under the age of 30: Andy Pages. Tommy Edman and Will Smith just passed the 30-year-old standard.
Could the shortened off season because of the WS, and back-to-back seasons traveling to Korea and then to Japan to open the season in a two-game series have had an impact? Moreso with an aging team? Great PR, and a fun trip for the family. But what does it do to the body? I certainly don’t know, but some very smart people need to be asking that question, right? And those same very smart people do have the resources (both financial and knowledgeable contacts) to find a semblance of an understanding.
Here are the ages for the LAD position players: (Dodgers Ages at April 2025)
As baseball players progress through their careers, age becomes an adversary affecting their ability to throw and hit with the same vigor. Baseball and baseball publications study Aging Curves.
An example of a very simple baseball age curve pictorial:
Of course, all baseball players age differently. But when you have 12 of your 13 position players over the peak age for position players, chances are that there will be multiple players who will begin to regress or continue to regress at a faster pace at the same time.
There are multiple studies that indicate that the peak physical skills and ability intersect between ages age 27 and age 29. The “rapid decline” for hitters (and pitchers) begin at age 30. Fangraphs breaks aging down in more detail.
Fangraphs offers detailed insights; for hitters, wRC+ peaks at 26, ISO holds on until 30, BABIP declines from 20 onwards, walk rate peaks between 28-32, and strikeout rate is lowest at 25.
Medium also examines the performance of hitters over time including hard hit rate, barrel rate, max exit velocity and average exit velocity. Both power metrics peak at 27 and decline quickly while contact metrics hit their apex at 27 and slowly erode to 32 before the numbers fall off the table.
Could this be impacting LAD? The Dodgers have players approaching and over the age of 35. Fangraphs did a study on players 35+ and the changes in their wRC+ over two years – 2020 and 2021.
Yuli Gurriel seemed to age well, and to a lesser degree, Ean Longoria, Joey Votto, and Albert Pujols. The others did not age well.
Freddie, Miggy Ro, and Austin Barnes are there now for LAD. Max Muncy and Chris Taylor are close enough. Freddie has a positive delta in wRC+ while the other two have huge declines. Max Muncy has a negative 83 delta from 2024.
Here are the current 13 LAD position players and their wRC+ delta from 2024.
- Will Smith +58
- Tommy Edman +28
- Freddie Freeman +15
- Andy Pages +8
- Teoscar Hernández -13
- Michael Conforto -18
- Mookie Betts -22
- Chris Taylor -30
- Kiké Hernández -31
- Shohei Ohtani -49
- Austin Barnes -69
- Max Muncy -83
- Miguel Rojas -113
Only four Dodger players have improved their wRC+ over 2024. Are the declines age related? Certainly some necessarily have to be. Have they regressed to the point that it is permanent? I do not think that is the case for Betts and Ohtani. Not so clear cut for Teoscar and Conforto. Max’s hard-hit balls are not traveling like they used to. Age? Mechanics? The other players very well could be age related. I am less reliant on Barnes’ delta as he is not there for his hitting prowess. And if the other players were at least matching last year’s wRC+, then what difference would Barnes’ offense be?
There certainly needs more time in 2025 to draw any conclusions, and I am not going to draw any now. I will let the experts make that determination. But the aging curve has to be a consideration going forward this year, doesn’t it?
Hardball Times has reported that the aging curve has held steady over time. Certainly consistent enough over a longer period of study to make the study credible.
Is the overall talent of the players enough to offset the impact of the age curve? The Dodgers are certainly counting on that, and they have a pretty good track record for support.
For those who want to delve into this topic more, here are some articles that I reviewed for this post:
https://monster-baseball.com/2024/02/24/aging-curves-in-pro-baseball/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/
https://medium.com/@adamsalorio/examining-aging-curves-for-statcast-metrics-18c8c2ac2a4c
https://tht.fangraphs.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/
MiLB GAME SUMMARIES
OKC Comets 5 – Salt Lake City Bees (LAA) 4
Landon Knack was mostly masterful in this one. In 6 of the 7 innings he pitched, he faced the minimum. He retired the final 15 batters he faced. But he lost all focus in the 2nd. He allowed a double and HR to lead off the 2nd, and then with 2 outs, there was a fielding error followed by 2 singles and another unearned run. This wiped out the 3-0 lead OKC jumped out to in the 1st inning.
OKC took the lead in the 4th when Esteury Ruiz hit a one-out double. Austin Gauthier reached on a HBP. Both Ruiz and Gauthier moved up on a ground out. Ruiz scored on a WP, and OKC took a 4-3 lead.
Alex Freeland hit a solo HR in the 7th giving OKC a needed insurance run.
LHRP Jose E. Hernandez pitched a perfect 8th with 2 K.
Joe Jacques pitched the 9th and allowed an unearned run on his throwing error.
- Hyeseong Kim – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run, double (1)
- Alex Freeland – 2-5, 2 runs, 2 RBI, HR (2)
- Esteury Ruiz – 2-3, 1 run, double (5)
- Ryan Ward – 1-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (4)
NW Arkansas (KC) 1 – Tulsa Drillers 0 Game Suspended in bottom of 4th.
Lake County Captains (Cleveland) 3 – Great Lakes Loons 2 – Game 1 (7 innings)
The Loons’ offense was a 2nd inning Kole Myers single and a Mairoshendrick Martinus triple (1). The Loons did manage 5 other singles. The Loons only had one other runner reach 3rd on a Martinus stolen base.
Brooks Auger faced the minimum in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th. He surrendered a solo HR in the 2nd. But he apparently ran out of gas in the 4th. With one out, he allowed a single, double, single, sac fly, double, HR for 5 runs. With 2 outs, Auger was replaced by RHRP Jesus Luna who got the final out.
RHRP Carson Hobbs retired the side in order in the final inning, striking out 2.
Lake County Captains (Cleveland) 3 – Great Lakes Loons 2
It took the Loons until there were 2 outs in the 6th before they got their first and only hit. Logan Wagner hit an RBI double for the Loons 2nd run, but was stranded on 2nd as the game ended.
The Loons 1st run came in the 4th with 3 walks and a force out. The Loons offense? 7 BB.
Wyatt Crowell was wild again, and it cost him. It 3.0 IP, he allowed 2 runs on 1 hit, but 6 walks. He did have 5 K. The two runs came in the 4th. Crowell walked the first two batters, and that brought in Evan Shaw to relieve Crowell. A ground out moved the runners to 2nd and 3rd. A second ground out scored one run, and a single scored the second. Both runs were charged to Crowell.
Cam Day came on in relief in the 6th. He issued a BB. A ground out and double gave the Captains all the runs they would need.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 7 – Inland Empire 66ers (LAA)
Rancho’s 3rd youngster pitcher, 19 year old RHSP Samuel Sanchez, pitched a masterful 5.0 scoreless innings. The offense put up 4 in the 3rd. Kellon Lindsey and Mike Sirota led off with singles placing runners on the corners. Jaron Elkins singled to score Lindsey. Victor Rodriguez drew a BB to load the bases. WP brings Sirota home and moves the runners to 2nd and 3rd. Eduardo Guerrero singled home both runners and a 4-0 lead.
In the 6th, Raynerd Ortega hit his 3rd HR of the season. Sirota then reached on a fielding error and reached 3B. Jose Meza singled home Sirota and a 6-0 lead.
Rancho’s Sterling Patick could not get out of the 6th inning. With the score 6-4, Patick was lifted for Marco Corcho with two inherited runners. Corcho hit a batter, walked a batter, and threw a WP and both inherited runners scored. Patick’s final line is 0.1 IP, 6 runs, 4 hits, and 2 BB.
After leading by 6, the Quakes were tied up at 6-6 after 6.
In the 7th, Jaron Elkins drew a BB, stole 2nd and 3rd, and scored on a WP.
In the 9th, Victor Rodriguez led off with a single. Gio Cueto drew a BB, and Kellon Lindsey singled home Rodriguez for an 8-6 lead and win.
Alex Makarewich continued his relief mastery by striking out 3 in the 9th, and getting his first save. In 6 games and 9.2 IP, Makarewich has allowed just 3 hits and compiling 18 strikeouts. But the negative? 7 walks. Alex has a chance to develop into a high leverage late inning reliever if he can get the free passes under control.
- Mike Sirota – 3-5, 2 runs, double (8) – Now batting .385 with 1.159 OPS
- Kellon Lindsey – 2-6, 1 run, 1 RBI
- Raynerd Ortega – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (3)
Really solid piece. I think the bench might be a concern. Those ages are high.
Six of those guys will be around for at least two years or more. Freddie has 2 years after this season, so does Teo. Edman will have 4. Smith 9, Betts, 7 and Ohtani 8. Then you have Snell for 4 more years, and Glasnow for 3. Yamamoto will be a Dodger until he is 36, He and Sasaki are in their 20’s so, not a big concern. The bench is definitely old, but all should be gone next season, so the Dodgers can add some youth there, Muncy unless he improves dramatically, most likely will be gone also, along with Conforto.
Nice win after a tough 3 game losing streak.
Pages is on a heater. Hope it stays that way for a bit more.
Shohei a breakout game ?
Sasaki was okay but far from dominant.
Freeland keeps raking at AAA.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sirota hitting like crazy at RC.
Dodgers should promote him to GL. There is nothing to prove for him at low A ball and he is 21 year old.
To make room bring up Hope to AA.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thoughtful, timely, well written piece Jeff. It’s been touched on periodically by this group lately so now is a good time to discuss the reality – “time is a storm in which we are all lost”.
The numbers are clear. Have been for a while. With Mookie as an example, he had his best WAR year, 10.7, at age 25. He had 60% of that at age 29 and 80% of that at age 30. He needs to average 4 WAR until he’s 39 to earn his contract. Will he? Personally I doubt it. Especially with him playing the toughest position facing home plate at age 32. It’s my opinion he would have aged better in right field, but I don’t know that. Maybe a topic for another thread – what positions age more quickly.
The Dodgers are acutely aware of these curves and are willing to pay the 8+ million per WAR to declining stars. You put enough of them together, as they have done, you will at the end of the year have more team WAR than your competitors. It’s worked quite well for several years in a row.
The question is, is it sustainable. The answer to that question, simply put is, we’ll see.
Interesting write-up Jeff.
Great article.
Samuel Sanchez!
Excellent article Jeff. After the Conforto and the Teo signings, it led me to think a lot of your points about the team.
Just looked this up for “fun” as a way of verifying why it feels like the bulk of the Dodger games are a struggle. In 27 games, they have played only 7 in which they scored first and and stayed ahead from that point on — and four of those 7 games were close (one 1-0 game two 3-0 games where they scored late and a 3-1 game). Nothing seems easy for this team right now — but they battle and have had some fun comebacks (and the ugly flip-side: some brutal bullpen losses).
In the games I have watched, there have been very few moments where I felt the Dodgers were controlling the narrative. To their credit, they are somehow still near the top. I look forward to some cleaner all-around baseball and some laughers (on the winning side).
I’ve been thinking about this age issue since last season, which is why I was really hoping Lux stepped up (didn’t happen) to help lead the next wave of Dodgers.
I think this is why many wanted to sign Soto, or even make an offer for Kyle Tucker. We need some youth infusion soon, and most of our higher ranked prospects are below Tulsa level.
Rushing likely has no space here, so it’d be wise to trade him for other young assets who may have opportunities in LA. If Busch could land us Hope and Ferris, Rushing should definitely fetch a similar or better return.
Great write up Jeff. Barnes, Taylor, Kike, and Rojas will all most likely be gone next year. And Muncy also if he doesn’t produce an .800 OPS season. That will remove 5 of our 6 oldest players and open the door for an infusion of youth.
Boys played better.
Edman and Mookie turned a really nice double play on a slower ground ball. Mookie made a perfect quick toss and Edman has a nice pivot at second and crossed over the bag to save a step at first. Nice feet and nice play.
Teoscar made a terrific running throw home to nail Bart. That throw had some mustard on it.
It might be my imagination, but Will Smith seems to be the victim of more balls called strikes than most anybody. Orel mentioned that one bad one would be the topic of conversation the next half inning with the HPU. I would love to be the fly on the wall for that conversation. I wasn’t a catcher so I don’t know how much he can get away with. Looking at the pitcher and not showing up the HPU would allow some freedom you might think, but you don’t want to piss the guy off that might cost your own pitcher.
Pages is on a nice run but offensively and now defensively. He still runs some odd routes, but he’s become skilled at the wall.
Shohei busted his ass from right out of the box on his double/triple. He looked like Usain Bolt eating up ground rounding the sacks. Later he had a total brain fart at third.
Doc picked the right time to pull the plug on Roki, without trying to milk another out.
Considering my recent criticism of Kike being in the line up every day, I would like to order my Crow roasted with a light Orange Sauce to cover the bitter flavor of the Crow.
Looking forward to Glasnow today.
Gonsolin scheduled to make the start for Wednesday’s early game. Ohtani threw his first bullpen since the birth of his baby girl. Workman, who was DFAd the other day, traded to the Nats by the Cubs.
If I got to play GM for a day and money wasn’t an issue, these would be my changes. First I’d institute the rules I posted yesterday, system wide. (I’m to lazy to post them again and I won’t ever get to be a GM for a day.) Second, I’d call up Freeland, Feduccia, Kim, Ward and Outman.Rushing needs to play everyday so if he came up we would have to find a spot where he would play everyday, perhaps left field. I’d release or somehow manipulate the roster to open two spots on the forty man roster. Feduccia, Outman (Ruiz may be in Outman’s spot but for now it would be Outman.) and Kim are already on the 40 man. I’d cut bait with Taylor (who isn’t starting today at third although a lefty is starting.) and Conforto. Now that we have Ward and Freeland on the 40 man we still need remove three from the 26. Those three would be Kike, Barnes and Muncy. (Rojas would be an option with those three.) What to do with those three I’d would delegate to Gomes to figure out. If we could find a way to keep them in the organization that would be great.
When that was finished I’d grab a Gatorade and sit back and enjoy the rest of my day as a GM. I’ll have a beer now and then but basically I’m a boring party guy.
Later I’ll get to be a GM for a day with just the pitching staff.
GM for a day, pitching: I like our forty man roster with the pitchers. We just need to get them healthy. The changes would have to be on who goes when the 60 day IL pitchers get healthy.
Just saw todays starting lineup against the lefty Falter. I don’t know why they can’t give Smith his days off against righties. And Muncy should be sitting today. Put Kike at 3B and Taylor at 2B.
Mr.Glassman out again after 1 inning.
Not good.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can we put these Luis Robert Jr. discussions to bed? I know, I know, I just started one.
Outman with another good game for OK. Home run, single, and threw a runner out at home. Now with an OPS of .805. Knock Knock
Pages used his runway well, let’s hope Muncy can as well.
BTW, Is Muncy’s runway infinite?
Andy Pages trying to make believers out of Dodger fans. Nice to see a little early offense today. Alex Verdugo, who was recalled from AAA by the Braves on the 17th, went 4-4 with a walk in the Braves loss to the D-Backs today. Giants beat Texas and stay 1 game up on LA with a walk off 3-2 win. Padres lose on a late homer to the Rays. Gomez pitched well for his first outing. Nice 8th inning DP by Mookie and Rojas.
Pages must be working his arse off with all the recent improvement he’s made at the plate and in the field. He just needs to cut back some more on the brain farts he tends to have, and then he’ll be fine.
Good news is that the Lakers are one game from elimination and us not having to watch LeBoring James anymore this year.
Excellente! Another dominant report from Dominique.
Gracias for this report…even if the wonky wRC+ data gets a little strange.
No doubt that several aging Dodgers are on the decline. Rojas, Barnes and Taylor may all in the final year of their careers, though they may want to cling as long possible. Either way, I salute them for their service.
But let’s say that trio shared an Uber that got hit by a bus. Nothing too serious, but their seasons are over. Freeland, Rushing and Kim get called up–with their careers all on the upswing. Wouldn’t this be a stronger roster? Certainly it would have more potential and generate more excitement.
Or maybe it’s Feduccia who gets the call for his defense. But then Conforto pulls an oblique and Rushing gets summoned to play LF. Or maybe Outman gets another chance
Anyway, since today’s topic is Father Time, that bastard, perhaps it’s fitting that Andy Pages, at 24 the youngest regular BY SIX FREAKING YEARS, is suddenly so hot.
And there’s some good news that, I think, has been overlooked…
Remember how Pages killed lefties last season? His OPS against southpaws in ’24 was .916. He had the splits of a platoon player.
This season he’s killing righties. Against northpaws, Pages has produced an OPS of .928, second on the team to Shohei’s .961.
Against lefties, his OPS is .752. Not terrible, but in the early stages of this season Pages is producing reverse splits.
Plus, it’s obvious that his defense is improving.
Right now, the weak link in the OF is Conforto. He’s OPS is .627. The strongest OF would have Edman in CF, flanked by Pages and Teo. (If we could clone Edman, he’d play 2B as well.)
The weak link in the IF is, alas, Max, who has an OPS of .527. Yes, it’s early, and there’s reason to believe that both Max and Conforto will improve… despite Father Time’s efforts.
Meanwhile, it’s frustrating that Glasnow continues to reflect that “glass now” rap. He’s the Hollywood handsome Nordic god of hurlers… and yet he can’t seem to get through a couple innings of work without some boo-boo. Meanwhile, lumpy Landon Knack throws seven solid innings for OKC, looking every part of a workhorse to Glasnow’s fragile thoroughbred.
Oh well. So it goes.
Thanks for the work you put in to this article. It was really informative and provided some data to help distinguish slow starts by so many of Dodgers (Betts, Muncy, Hernandez, etc.) from the effects of age. Of course as the 2025 sample size of at-bats gets larger, we will have a much better idea. Your list of ages for the Dodgers got my attention when I saw them written out like that. Older players = less production =more susceptible to injury. They have Rushing, Kim, Freeland, and Feduccia ready at AAA. Hopefully, production wins out over loyalty if push comes to shove.