It is great to be a Dodgers fan. It is great to have an owner that not only has an astute business sense, but also an extremely keen desire to win, and is willing to put up the necessary $$$ to help win another WS championship. Will they? You have to play the 162 game season AND win the post season tournament? Much to the chagrin of most other baseball owners and fans alike, at the very least the LAD owners have done everything possible to do just that.
One of the big disappointing teams for me this year is the Baltimore Orioles. As it turns out, with the problems facing NYY and Boston, this was the year Baltimore could have gone all in. Instead they replaced Corbin Burnes with 41 year old Charlie Morton. They replaced Anthony Santander with a Tyler O’Neill. If Baltimore was willing to go to 5 years for Santander, they could have had him at a lesser AAV than O’Neill. Santander signed a 5 year deal for a NPV of $68.6MM while O’Neill signed a 3 year deal for $49.5MM. Santander is 8 months older than O’Neill, so age should not have been a consideration.
David Rubenstein purchased the Orioles last year (1/31/24) for $1.725B. Rubenstein’s net worth is $3.8B. The Orioles management did not do anything to enhance their chances to win at the deadline last year, and have seemingly gone backwards this year.
Compare that to Mark Walter and Guggenheim Partners. Walter, et.al. purchased the Dodgers on May 1, 2012. A little over 3.5 months later, Walter approved a 5 for 4 trade to the Boston Red Sox…the Nick Punto trade. The Dodgers acquired RHP Josh Beckett, OF, Carl Crawford, 1B Adrián González, and INF Nick Punto for 1B James Loney, INF Ivan De Jesus, RHP Allen Webster, RHP Rubby De La Rosa, and OF Jerry Sands. That trade put the Dodgers in a touchy debt to revenue ratio predicament. IMO that is an ownership group that wanted to win.
On January 22, 2013, Time Warner Cable signed a deal to partner with the Dodgers to form a new regional sports network (RSN), which would be majority-owned by the Dodgers. On January 28, the Dodgers and Time Warner Cable signed a 25-year broadcast agreement valued at $8.35 billion, the Cadillac of RSNs, and the foundation of future transactions.
Baltimore is a team that is 2 years removed from a 101 win season, and one year from a 91 win season, in a tough AL East Division. Besides losing Burnes, they knew they were going to be without RHSP Kyle Bradish this year. John Means was a free agent (signed with Cleveland), and is always questionable anyway. He is rehabbing from a 2nd TJ surgery and will probably be out all year. Top pitching prospect, Grayson Rodriguez, had shoulder and lat/teres issues and did not pitch after July 31. As it turns out, Rodriguez has elbow inflammation this Spring requiring a cortisone shot. Precursor to TJ???
The Orioles projected rotation is:
- Zach Eflin
- Charlie Morton
- Dean Kremer
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Cade Povich
Doesn’t exactly strike fear in opposing batters. They also do not have any MLB ready SP of note in the system.
The Dodgers had questions in their rotation, and yet they still went out and acquired Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki. They also bolstered the back end of their bullpen with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. The Orioles? They are seemingly going backwards. This was the year that Baltimore could have made a splash to put themselves in a win now situation. Perhaps winning is not the top criterion for the billionaire owner.
I continue to read that Baltimore needs pitching and should be pushing to get Bobby Miller. Do not disagree on either point. But the Orioles upper level middle infield prospect cupboard is bare. The Orioles second first round pick last year (#32 overall), Griff O’Ferrall is scheduled for A+. Griff is the O’s #7 prospect with a 50FV (Future Value). The O’s have 4 other SS/2B prospects, all at A+ or lower, and all 20 years old and younger. All have a 40 FV.
Alex Freeland is 23, reached AAA, and as a 55 FV. He is more MLB ready than any of the O’s middle infield prospects. The Dodgers other middle infield prospects are better prospects than the O’s. Emil Morales, Kellon Lindsey, and Joendry Vargas all have a 50FV, equal to the Orioles top SS prospect.
The O’s do have one other infield prospect, 3B/1B Coby Mayo. The O’s are far more likely to move Mountcastle or O’Hearn thus giving Mayo a clear runway at MLB than they are trading Mayo. Mayo has a strong arm, but lacks accuracy at 3B, thus 1B seems more likely. Mayo has a 70 power grade, so his bat plays well at either corner. Mayo is the one Baltimore infielder that I believe the Dodgers could in fact entice Mike Elias to sit up and listen to AF/BG.
FWIW, Mayo (#103) was drafted 3 slots after the Dodgers drafted Jake Vogel (#100) in 2020 draft.
The rest of the O’s infield are MLB players: Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, and Ramón Urías. Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are All Stars. Holliday is 3 years removed from being a 1/1 draft pick. Urías is a younger but not better Miguel Rojas. I do not see Baltimore trading any of Henderson, Westburg, or Holliday.
Then again as far as Mayo being traded, who was the last Orioles top prospect who was traded? They just do not trade their top prospects. They would trade Urías. Miller straight up for Mayo will not get it done. Just for fun I checked the trade simulator. The simulator says that Miller, Joendry Vargas, and Nick Frasso is a slight underpay for Coby Mayo (26.5 to 28.1). There is no way AF makes that trade.
Westburg is waaaaay more lopsided. Mayo has a trade value of 28.1, while Westburg has a trade value of 64.6.
As far as trading Miller, he is at his nadir in trade value. I cannot see AF/BG trading Miller just now. But Coby Mayo might change their minds.
Great stuff Jeff. I would love to see LA get Holliday, but I know that isn’t happening. Just for fun, Miguel Vargas is having an excellent spring with the bat.
The White Sox have Vargas playing 3B, which is what he played mostly at OKC. I had him pegged as Max’s successor but the Dodgers had other plans…that didn’t work out.
Am I the only one who thinks Vargas looks about 15-20 pounds heavier?
Maybe it’s an illusion. Or maybe he feels freer to bulk up at 3B.
There’s another Holliday coming….
And the Dodgers will not get him either. 😎
No such thing as an excellent spring.
Your opinion which I totally disagree with.
Getting up early to watch the game. Should be interesting. Stadium was packed for the Dodgers workout.
Very interesting article thank you Jeff. After all of those bad years the orioles suffered through to rebuild their team, it’s a shame to see them lose this chance to be at the top of that division for a few years, because the owner won’t invest more money for those couple of more higher value players. Thank the Gods in Blue Heaven that our ownership group puts winning, and profits over the long term, over making a quick buck every single season.
As you point out, the O’s don’t have any notable SPs waiting in the wings. Replacing Burns with Charlie Morton may be a sign of an owner who simply doesn’t care much about winning. That starting rotation is a second-rate element on what should be a first-rate contender. (I wonder if the O’s considered Buhler before the Red Sox got him. With Cole going down, the Red Sox look like the AL East favorite to me, and the Orioles could miss the postseason.)
Maybe the Dodgers brass just isn’t that impressed with Mayo. (While considering draft whiffs, who did the Dodgers chose before the Red Sox got Roman Anthony?) But if the brass likes Mayo, an offer of, say, Miller + Knack or Wrobleski + Huebeck might get their attention.
Too much? Probably. But the Dodgers probably have dossiers on intriguing low-level O’s prospects that could balance it out.
Mayo might not be all that. Perhaps a better target is out there. I hope so. I’d still prefer that the Dodgers deal a bit of the ML-quality pitching that might not see the ML competition this season.
Another season at OKC won’t increase their value.
If the Dodgers deal Miller + Knack + Huebeck, the ’25 rotation can be fortified by Shohei, Wrobleski, Gonsolin, Kershaw, Sheehan and Frasso.
Come ’26, River Ryan, Gavin Stone, Hurt and Grove are due back–and younger guys like Ferris, Swan, Jang, Karros and Campos might be ready to contribute as well.
For the next 4-5 years, the six-man rotation will feature Snell, Sasaki, Shohei, Yamamoto and Glasnow–and maybe a dozen guys competing for the last spot. Yes, there will be injuries, and it’s nice to have depth.
But if some of that depth can be swapped for a young rising star at a position of need… why not?
I hope we see Freeland sooner rather than later. While I think Kim will work out as a UT option, there’s a chance that Freeland could replace Max at 3B or hasten Mookie’s move to 2B.
But who knows? Mookie play SS for three or four years….
Book ’em
Sometimes you need to be patient with prospects. I do not know if Coby Mayo is going to be an All Star or bust or somewhere in between. But there were some who have been commenting that the Dodgers should trade Miller to Baltimore for the infield prospects, and Mayo is the only infield prospect that the Dodgers would either covet AND have a chance at trading for. That is why I based the post on Miller to Baltimore for middle infielders.
With a FV of 60, Mayo’s tools indicate he is at least MLB regular. Per this Fangraphs study, for all of the prospects with a FV of 60 from 2019-2022 (42), 74% were at least a MLB regular, with 45% above average or a star.
A better target? There are none targeted as better at 3B than Mayo.
Conforto HR with first pitch he sees……
Then Shohei and Teo – I’m enjoying this.
Mookie scratched with sickness
I got in late. The runs had already been scored. Looked like the offense started hot, then decided 5 was enough and it went to sleep.
Actually, the Japanese starter held them in check until that inning and the rest of the Japanese staff pitched really good. The regulars left the game after the 5th inning.
Good article Jeff. When I saw the headline I was expecting it would include he Angels,a good example of a big market team with poor ownership. Anyway it is a great time o be a Dodger fan and he Guggenheim Group has shown a pathway to profitability and success as significant as Billy Ball showed how to stay competitive with a low payroll.
Angels, A’s, Pirates, or Rockies. Pick one for the worst owner in MLB. I do not believe the Rays or Marlins ownership group has the requisite capital to build a consistent championship caliber team. Seattle and St. Louis join Baltimore as head scratchers for their lack of off season moves.
Alex Verdugo, still only 28, remains unsigned.
It’s not like he totally sucks….
Just between the ears
Not only do the Dodgers have the highest player payroll, but I’m guessing they also have the highest organizational payroll. By a lot. Jeff and Bear, I think it would be a great article to give us a total organizational breakdown. How many total employees, who they are and a breakdown of the total organizational nut. From breakfast in the morning to Kastin’s salary. Could be difficult because they are a privately owned company but even some educated guesses would be fun. Thanks
I got another question for brainiacs here:
What percentage of the 26 man in the top drawing clubs, compared to the bottom dwellers, consists of players they drafted and developed? I took a quick glance at KC and Tampa rosters and it wasn’t as many as I thought it would be.
I did that once. I will do that again, hopefully by next week. I always like to look at those metrics. Because of pitching, the Dodgers have a good number of homegrown talent.
I do not have a clue about the payroll. Forbes may look at that, but that may be a more in-depth study that would require a subscription. I have enough subscriptions.
But here is a list of all front office personnel.
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/team/front-office
They have 80+ Baseball Operations personnel.
Thx Jeff. Wonder how that compares to other clubs?
Always good to beat the Giants (even if they are from Tokyo and not SF)!!
Wroblesky has certainly made a statement this spring. He’s a keeper
I agree and when the trade scenarios flourish, Wrobleski is always getting added. I usually write NO to including Wrobleski. The Dodgers have about 83 MiLB RHP. The number of quality potential LHSP is about 2…Wrobleski and Ferris. There are a couple of others who could make a move this season…Wyatt Crowell, Luke Fox, Sterling Patick, and Jakob Wright. But they are a long way off.
For me, Wrobleski is more of a keeper than Miller. And Wrobo is 15 months younger than Miller. I am not advocating trading Miller. I just value Wrobo more than Miller.
For me, Ferris, Wrobo, Stone and Ryan are all substantially higher on my keeper list than Miller.
He started off 2023 and 2024 springs with a shoulder problem, then had a pretty horrible 2024 season. Started out 2025 spring by getting smacked with a line drive at his head (not his fault, but this just adds one more potential negative). And, of course, he’s also demonstrated that he’s a bit of a head case on the mound at certain times.
So although you aren’t advocating the trading of Miller, I am, except for the fact that his trade value must be so low at this point that there is no way we could get Mayo straight up for him.
For me, the only solution is to put him in the OKC rotation, hope he has a great first half and then trade him at the deadline. Just too many up and downs in his progress for me. I’d much rather go with the four guys I mentioned up top.
Yes to it all.
And Knack doesn’t even merit a mention….
No respect, I’m tellin ya. The guy gets no respect…
He’s pitching like a keeper…but he might be kept at OKC.
I’d still put Wrobleski the right deal.
If we assume a six-man rotation, five spots are taken for the next 4-5 seasons: Snell, Shohei, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Sasaki. That leaves one vacancy.
Yes, there will be injuries. Yes, maybe Shohei will become more of a DH (but I hope not). Yes, it’s great to have depth.
But I think there can be too much of a log jam.
Right now, Wrobleski’s competition includes May, Miller, Knack, Frasso and soon (we hope) Gonsolin. In a few months, Kershaw and Sheehan should be in the mix. And maybe Casparius, depending on the bullpen situation.
Next season, Gavin Stone, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt and Michael Grove should be joining the crowded competition…and Jackson Ferris and others will be knocking on the door.
I’m sure I’m forgetting somebody…
The bullpen is similarly stacked.
Maybe Wrobleski will get the “bulk” role in the bullpen and maybe he’ll start at OKC.
“Yes, there will be injuries”
Which is why we should keep them all.
Love the guy. Can’t believe how under-ranked he is on prospect lists.
I like Bobby Miller. I just don’t see a place for him long-term. I would definitely get listening all year long.
I’m guessing Freeland’ value will exceed what might be projected using his scouting grades. He is a keeper for me.
Conforto could be a one year rental. They could need 2 outfielders next year.
Who will spend the most time on the IL between Trout and Glasnow?
The Dodgers have plenty of pitching.
Where is tonight’s lineup?
Tonight’s lineup
https://x.com/Dodgers/status/1901059080342643094
Danke
Well, that sucked.
Well so far the mighty Dodger bats have scored in 1 of 18 innings. Good thing we play in America
Saiki looked like Maddux out there. Up down in out change of speeds on the edges. 7 Ks in 5 with a 91 mph fastball. Dodger hitters never see pitching like that and had no idea how to hit it. It was exactly what we’ve been talking about. Artful pitching.
Well said, I agree. We’re learning more than ever Japan produces a lot of quality pitching.
Just remembered that the O’s got Dean Kremer from the Dodgers in the package for Machado way back when. Kremer has been a stalwart for the O’s.
Initially, I was very excited about landing Machado and hoped the Dodgers could keep him to play 3B. Love his offense, love his defense… But he acted like such a jerk in his short time with the team that I’m glad they didn’t keep him around.
Way back when, I was bullish on Lindor. There were various reports that the Indians insisted on Lux but the Dodgers refused to include him. I was all for dealing a top prospect for the game’s best SS.
That didn’t pan out–and then the Mookie deal became possible.
Who thought we’d be getting our future SS in that deal?
“Way back when, I was bullish on Lindor”.
As was I. Wish we would have done it.