The Winter Meetings kick off on Sunday, and many believe there could be a lot of activity before the meetings close on Wednesday. Most everyone is waiting for Juan Soto to make his decision, and Jeff Passan has reported that he will decide no later than Monday.
Because Soto is about to be signed by NYM for 15/YR $700MM deal, NYY, Boston, and Toronto have escalated their interest (offers?) for Teoscar Hernández. I have read reports that have indicated that LAD and Teo are in the final stages of negotiations. I have also read predictions that both Boston and NYY are considered favorites to grab Teo. The sources are not reputable and are more predictions than actual knowledge, so I am not buying into the reports. But they are out there, and LAD has not re-signed him, so some team can in fact make Teo an offer to good to turn down. Think Zack Greinke who was wrapped up in a bow with the contract he wanted the night before Arizona swooped in with the overpay; a 6 year $206.5MM contract.
I am still optimistic that AF/BG and Teo will come to terms. It might take a multi-year deal north of $80MM, with a lot deferred. But if they do not, what are the options?
- Anthony Santander – 30 (2 years younger than Teo). Switch hitter. Negative defensive metrics. Numbers for the last three years are very comparable with Teo’s over the same time frame. Comes with a QO.
- Tyler O’Neill – RH bat who turns 30 in June. LHP killer. Former 2X GG with St. Louis. Can’t stay on the field. Only two years > 100 games. Just under .800 OPS for his career. Do not know how he would feel about platooning, or if LAD would consider it. O’Neill and Baltimore have agreed to a 3 year $49.5MM deal.
- Michael Conforto – LH bat who turns 32 in March. Did not play well in SFG, then again, how many do. Still has a career OPS > .800 (3,938 PA). League average K%. Above league average BB%. Another one who has problems staying on the field.
- Jurickson Profar – No way, no how. Include Alex Verdugo here.
- Harrison Bader – RH bat, who turns 31 in June. He is a true CF, but I would rather give James Outman another chance.
- Max Kepler – LH bat who turns 32 in February. Career OPS < .750. Why there would be any interest by the Dodgers, I am not sure.
- Randal Grichuk – 33 year old RH bat. Been very healthy in his career. Longest stint on the IL 31 days in 2018 with a knee injury. Last year missed the first 7 games due to an ankle injury. Lost 30 days in 2023 with a hernia. That is it since 2018. Another LHP killer. Has cut down on his K%. I think he would be a great platoon OF and RH bat off the bench.
- Jesse Winker – 31 year old LH bat. Limited power, but decent bat to ball skills. Has a career OPS of .804. Winker is one of those platoon players who comes to life in October. But does Winker want to be a platoon player? Winker and Grichuk would be a good platoon tandem for LF, if that would be acceptable to the players.
None of the above, save Jesse Winker, have good playoff numbers, and many do not have many playoff ABs at all.
One FA that I have to add, because there is still a lot of discussion that he could come back to LAD, is LH hitter and outstanding October bat: Joc Pederson. There is no basis in the rumor that Bums is feeding that info to the baseball pundits.
OF trades the Dodgers have been tied to include CF Luis Robert, Jr.
Two others that are rumored to be on the market are CF/1B Cody Bellinger and RF Seiya Suzuki.
Two that have not been linked to LAD, but two I would hope they would push hard for are CF Jarren Duran and RF Kyle Tucker.
Another rumored to be available is LAA LF Taylor Ward, but very unlikely that LAA will trade with LAD.
CF/LF Lane Thomas is being shopped by Cleveland.
SS:
The Dodgers are still shopping for that SS. Willy Adames is now with the SF Giants after he agreed to a 7 year $182MM contract ($26MM annual AAV). He is going to need to average a 3.25 fWAR for 7 years to justify that deal financially. For his first 7 years in MLB, he averaged 3.04 fWAR.
I have zero idea which SS might be available. The only one I am confident is available is Carlos Correa. Again, not knowing if Cincinnati is even considering moving Matt McLain, but like Jarren Duran and Kyle Tucker (see above OF), I would hope that AF/BG tries to hammer Cincinnati to bring him to LAD.
Would the Dodgers consider Trevor Story with massive cash? That is the only way Trevor Story gets moved.
It could be that LAD is comfortable going into the season with Miggy Ro, Tommy Edman, and Chris Taylor as their SS depth chart. Perhaps they are also comfortable waiting for Alex Freeland to breakout.
Starting Pitching:
The Dodgers have signed LHP Blake Snell, which was a fantastic deal IMO. They are still rumored to be one teams that is strongly interested in LHSP Garrett Crochet. With Snell, the LAD rotation to start the year could resemble:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Blake Snell
- Tyler Glasnow
- Bobby Miller
- Tony Gonsolin
- Landon Knack
Shohei Ohtani will not start the year in the rotation, but he will get there before too long. Clayton Kershaw should be back by June (trade deadline at the latest). Emmett Sheehan should be back by the trade deadline.
Crochet would give the Dodgers undoubtedly the best rotation in MLB.
Rōki Sasaki is due to be posted during the Winter Meetings, but does not figure to sign until after January 15.
All of that pre-supposes that Dustin May goes into the bullpen, and Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius go to AAA to start the year.
I am confident that AF/BG are still looking for SP. Whether that is front end starters or back of the rotation, we will have to wait to see. One pitcher I would like to see AF check into is TB Rays 29 year old RHP, Zack Littell. Littell is entering his 3rd and final year of arbitration and is estimated to get $6MM. Another TB Ray pitcher that is rumored to be available is LHSP, Jeffrey Springs. Springs has 2 years at $10.5MM annually, and potentially a third year club option ($15MM with a $750K buyout).
Could they get LHSP Jose Quintana for one year? None of Gavin Stone, River Ryan, or Emmett Sheehan would be blocked in 2026.
Relief Pitching:
I do believe the Dodgers want to re-sign Blake Treinen. But other than Treinen, I do not see the Dodgers signing any other free agent high leverage reliever. More Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda types, sure. Tanner Scott? I would not count on that. Michael Soroka? I can see that. Horrible starter, decent reliever.
Which players are potential trade chips? Gavin Lux, Dalton Rushing, Bobby Miller, and other RHP. Unless the Dodgers get the long term SS, Alex Freeland should stick, and both top OF prospects, Josue DePaula and Zyhir Hope, should also stick. But depending on the return, you can never know.
Willie Adames and Tyler O’Neill are the most recent FA signings, but I expect to see a considerable number more deals consummated during the Winter Meetings. Teoscar Hernández figures to be one that can go quickly. Perhaps Walker Buehler. Corbin Burnes? Jack Flaherty? Max Fried? That bidding figures to go a while longer. Alex Bregman has a lot of suitors, and until Houston decides how much they want to pony up, his suitors should grow.
Will the heavy emphasis be on FA at the Winter Meetings, or will it move to trades after the expected Juan Soto agreement? Will the Dodgers make another big splash?
Right now, Outman and Pages will have to be much improved!
Pages is a clear step above Outman. Both strike out a ton but Pages seems more likely to stick
If Outman plays like 2023 he is as good as Pages. I know, a big “IF”. It would really be great if he can rebound and become even an average major leaguer (OPS>.750).
As good?
Actually, much better.
In ’23, Outman hit to a .790 OPS, with 23 HRs, and finished third in ROY voting. Plus, he played a quality CF.
In ’24, Pages hit to a .712 OPS, with 13 HRs. His on-base percentage was about 50 points below Outman’s in ’23. His defense in CF was shaky–and he’s better in a corner.
Outman is streaky. In ’23, he started fast and then was allowed to labor through a deep slump at the ML level–in part because the Dodgers could count on his defense. He rebounded to finish with well-above average numbers.
In ’24, Outman started slow and was sent to OKC, where he rebounded but only earned a brief return to the majors.
Conforto’s arrival may prompt the Dodgers to trade Outman as both hit from the left side. A trade could be a blessing for Outman, because a lesser team would allow him to work through his slumps in the majors.
If we assume that Lux is traded and Teo returns–fingers crossed!–this could be the Dodgers new lineup.
Shohei DH
Mookie 2B
Freddie 1B
Teo LF
Max 3B
Smith C
Conforto/Pages RF
Outman/Edman CF
Edman/Rojas SS
Bench: Taylor, Barnes…and Kike, who should be resigned to essentially replaces Lux.
I do think the Dodgers make a big splash, perhaps a signing no one expects ( thinking Burnes or Fried) or a big blockbuster trade for an established OF.
Teoscar is a must re-sign. Going to be an interesting if not entertaining week.
Go Dodgers!
Already made the big splash with Snell.
Six-man rotation candidates right now: Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Shohei, Gonsolin, Knack, Miller….
May too, but there’s a lot of talk he’ll head to the bullpen.
And Kershaw and Sheehan should be ready around mid-season.
I don’t see other teams trading their cost controlled stars to the Dodgers or anyone else.
I got talked out of Correa because of his plantar fasciitis. So at the moment it looks like Rojas and Edman. Centerfield? Outman and Edman. I’m still hopeful Jr is in play.
What is it the Dodgers need to repeat? At the moment Teo and Treinen are at the top of my list. Landing Sasaki in January would be nice. If the Mets sign Soto, and add the pitching being talked about they will likely be the biggest challenge. Hopefully Soto stays with Yankees.
Joc in right field? He’d better lose 20 pounds between now and April.
What’s San Diego up to?
I was thinking Joc more in LF with Taylor if Teo is not signed. But I truly do not think this is an\ything more than idle chatter. But he still needs to lose the weight.
The no-Teo option?
Joc in LF might be fun. He could platoon with Taylor. Veteranos.
Outman/Edman in CF.
Pages/Rushing in RF?
Conforto is an interesting thought. He’s a professional hitter capable of a bounce back year if employed correctly.
And Conforto it is!
Jon Heyman has reported that both NY teams have pushed their offers to between $710MM and $730MM for Juan Soto, with NYM believed to be the higher of the two bids. He goes on to add that none of LAD, Toronto, or Boston have been eliminated for consideration. And why would they?Tell NYM and NYY that all three teams are still involved to keep the contract needle moving north.
That starting rotation you list would be impressive if all those guys started 25 and went 135+ innings. But, maybe 2 in that group will. Yamamoto and Snell. I don’t believe Ohtani or Kershaw will pitch 135+ either though some projections say Ohtani will. I’d like to see another arm added, though I don’t know who that might be.
I don’t really think we need pitching unless you are worried about injuries terribly.I am worried about outfielder
. I I am mad we didn’t sign Teo months ago. What the crap are they thinking. I don’t get it.
Now that my Adames at short with Edman in CF dream is dead, I’m getting on Badgers band wagon, and pulling for a Roberts Jr trade. Put Roberts in CF, play Edman, and Rojas at SS.We also need Teo at one of the corner spots.
Agree 100% on Robert jun. He makes the most sense. Great fielder, huge offensive potential, young, controllable for 2 more years. Only negative is his injury history.
Rushing/Pages platoon in LF, Robert jun. in CF, Teo in RF. That is a good outfield.
play Rushing 1 game a week at C to get him some reps there. One game for Barnes, 5 for Smith.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ram, the team will have four bench players, they already have Barnes, Rojas, and Taylor, under contract, that leaves one spot open. I think that Outman gets another shot before Rushing, can’t have both. As much excitement as Rushing generates, I think he’s going to have to prove himself in AAA a little bit more.
The six-man rotation will reduce the workload. The Dodgers basically have decided they don’t need a “workhorse”–or have changed the definition.
If a guy throws 5-6 quality innings, they seem fine with that. I’d rather see SPs go longer, but it is what it is.
Pretty strange that the first complete game of Snell’s career was a no-hitter.
By the end of the season, I suspect the Dodgers will work about 10-12 pitchers through that six-man rotation–and one may or may not be Sasaki.
Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Gonsolin, Shohei, Miller, Knack, Kershaw, Sheehan, May, Wrobleski–that’s eleven guys with ML starter experience in the mix. One or two may be traded or moved to the pen. We may see Casparius back. If all goes well, maybe Jackson Ferris will make his debut. (We could have a pitching Jackson to face the hitting Jacksons–Merrill, Chourio, Holliday.)
A big question tome is whether Bobby Miller can get back on track toward ace potential.
“A 6 man rotation will reduce workload”
That’s what I thought and the reason I’ve been calling for one for a few years now. A solid 6 man will give each pitcher 27 starts. The Dodgers had 17 different starters this year and NONE of them had 27 starts. The closest to that number was Stone with 25 and look what that got him.
For some reason, (and I believe it’s the emphasis on velo and spin rate) the Dodgers don’t have any starters that can take the ball every 6th day for an entire season. They got away with it this year but I’m not confident they can do it again. Mookie, Freddie and Smith are 97 years old now and have been through several long seasons in a row. It’s my opinion pitching had better be better (13th this year) in ‘25. Of course I would like to see them add more thunder, but as we watch the better bats go off the board I would like to see another proven solid starter added to this staff.
In 1960, the Dodgers had 5 pitchers start 15 games or more
In 1970, the Dodgers had 6 pitchers start 16 games or more
In 1980, the Dodgers had 6 pitchers start 10 games or more
in 1990, the Dodges had 5 pitchers start 12 games or more
In 2000, the Dodgers had 5 pitchers start 19 games or more
In 2010, the Dodgers had 7 pitchers start 12 games or more
In 2019, the Dodgers had 6 pitchers start 13 games or more
In 2021, the Dodgers had 7 pitchers start 11 games or more
In 2022, the Dodgers had 7 pitchers start 10 games or more
In 2023, the Dodgers had 8 pitchers start 10 games or more
In 2024, the Dodgers had 8 pitchers start 10 games or more
I do believe they could get Matt McClain from Cincinnati for like Lux Outman and some minor league pitchers that way they get a shortstop andthen Edman can being the centerfielder. But who is rightfiled and wo is leftfield if Teoscar doesn’t sign. Do they go after Kepler who can play left or rightfield and platoon Taylor and Pages in the other outfield positon which there inconsistent hitting uggh or do they have rushing and Pages. And taylor and Rojas are the late inning defensive guys.
Hope you are right about that.
No ifs, they are going to sign Teo, I don’t want you putting any of that negative energy into the universe😀
I am starting to believe we will not sign Teo,after we signed conforto.I do not believe this is happening.I thought it was a 100 percent deal after the World Series.I read we are only offering a 2 year deal.
With Adames off the market Dodgers should:
-resign Teo
-trade for Robert jun. (Outman, Lux, Knack or Wrobleski, Cartaya or Fiduccia)
-sign Tanner Scott
-bring back Treinen
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Another OF possibility?
Cubs apparently intent on dealing Belli and/or Suzuki.
A lot of fans still love Belli, but he’s overpriced and no longer all-star caliber.
Seiya Suzuki, who had a better season than Belli, has a more economical contract.
If the Dodgers don’t resign Teo, they should go hard after Suzuki.
Probably should go after him even if they resign Teo. Teo in LF, Suzuki in RF, and Outman/Edman in CF. Outman against righties and Edman against lefties. If Outman founders, get help at the trade deadline.
Tanner Scott is a good idea. A billion dollar rotation deserves a luxury bullpen addition.
The last two times the Dodgers have signed a reliever to longer than 2 years have not gone well. Joe Kelly three years (2019-2021) for $25MM. 1.3fWAR (.4bWAR) for the entirety of the contract. Total $10.4MM value.
Kenley Jansen five years (2017-2021) for $80MM. 7.4 fWAR (6.6 bWAR) for the entirety of the contract. Total $59.3MM value.
I think they are happy with how they are getting their relievers. They just signed Giovanny Gallegos to a MiLB deal, and I am sure they are looking to make him the next Evan Phillips, Anthony Banda, and Ryan Brasier.
They also have Dustin May who probably will be moved to the pen, and he has the potential to be a legit back end high leverage reliever.
Scott is rumored to want 4 years. He certainly deserves asking for that. I would love to see him in a LAD uniform. I just do not expect it. I hope Blake Treinen is re-signed. He wants to, but what if a team offers him 2 years and the Dodgers only want to go 1?
Maybe Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley become available at the trade deadline.
I mean they just don’t trade for high cost relievers. AF is on record on how he hates doing it, and history has nary an example of it.
It’s just like a Robert Jr. trade, unless at a discount I don’t see any way they do it.
But I was wrong on Snell (I thought they’d wait and seek value) and am often wrong.
Blake is re-signed. 2 years/$22M.
Excellent report.
But no love for Profar and Verdugo? Harsh.
I expect Teo to return on a nice contract. But if things don’t work out, I’d much rather see a trade for Robert than a contract for Santander. This is especially true with Adames no longer an option at SS.
Edman strikes me as the team’s best SS option now, with Rojas as backup. Putting Robert at CF would make the defense strong up the middle.
To me, Teo is Plan A, Robert is Plan B, Santander is Plan C… and Tyler O’Neil is now off the board.
I would not want to trade Rushing or Miller unless the return is a potential star like Robert or Crochet. And maybe Matt McClain, if the Dodger brass are truly covetous.
One of today’s reports says the Dodgers are still talking with Buehler–and that the Yankees, Mets and Braves are also interested. And haven’t the Padres been mentioned?
If so, that means five of the top contenders want Buehler.
Great for him, not so great for the Dodgers. I certainly wish him all the best…
Flaherty, too. If he loves SoCal so much, maybe the Angels have a shot.
AF must have some inkling of whether Sasaki wants to play or the Dodgers or not. Shohei and Yamamoto probably have an idea. Darvish too.
People talk. Just hard to imagine AF would be in the dark–but maybe Sasaki wants to do a tour, get wined and dined, just to be sure. Even if the Dodgers don’t sign Sasaki or Buehler, the pitching looks pretty damn strong.
But please bring back Treinen.
And at least kick the tires on Devin Williams. Lux + Wrobleski + Ryan Ward?
I assume Lux’s departure will create room for Kike.
Better to sign Tanner Scott than to trade for Williams.
Keep the prospects for another trade (Robert jun.).
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
After Soto signs, could Teo get 4/100mil? Might be too much for AF. I wouldn’t be in such a rush to trade Rushing after witnessing 6 months of Will Smith’s futility with the bat. He’s a big ? for me in 25. And please no to Bellinger!
It wasn’t 6 months. More like 2 1/2.
Cassidy, it was about three months of weak production (June-August). I was somewhat disappointed with Smith as well considering his past production. He ended the season with a 3.5 WAR with a .248 average and a .760 OPS. Add to his above average catching and throwing, he had a nice season. He has been ranked as the #4 catcher in baseball by some outlets. And for $14M, he is a bargain.
Rushing is highly ranked right now in the Dodger system. But, if they resign Teoscar for LF there will be no place for Rushing. When is the last time a Dodger position prospect succeeded consistently in MLB? Will Smith? I would use Rushing as part of a trade for a young SS. I would be surprised if Rushing ever donned a Dodger uniform.
Smith had a down year, but let’s not get carried away.
His “futility” resulted in a .760 OPS (below his excellent .822 career number) with 20 HRs. Even in a down year, Smith’s production was well above average for catchers.
Rushing is interesting but hasn’t taken a big-league AB yet. Cartaya is considered the better defender. The arrival of Conforto figures to reduce the opportunity for Rushing playing in the OF.
The Dodgers brass could decide that Rushing’s greatest value is as a premium trade chip to bring in a talent like Luis Robert Jr., and that Cartaya could succeed Barnes as Smith’s backup in ’26.
No way on Profar. Verdugo I actually like.
Profar really burned any bridge to the Dodgers with his playoff antics. He would actually be a low cost fall back if the Dodgers don’t resign Teo. I could live with it. I think Tatis and Machado had a bad influence on him.
Verdugo is an immature whiney punk.
Some are reporting that Sasaki has already picked his team. Some say that favors LAD, some say SDP. We will find out soon enough.
Yes (BIG YES) to Treinen.
Lux, Wrobelski, and Ryan Ward for Devin Williams? I am not sure that Ward will be in the LAD organization after Wednesay AM (Rule 5 draft). I have not consummated any MLB trades, but 2 years of control for Lux and 6 years control for Wrobleski seem more than enough to get Williams for 1 year. I do not believe I would offer more. I am also wary of trading LHP.
I think I would prefer to dangle Lux to CWS for Crochet or Luis Robert Jr.
So… Lux + Rushing + Outman for Robert Jr?
If Ward is still around, he can be added… especially now that Conforto is under contract.
Verdugo was persona non grata when he was with LAD, and has warn out his welcome in Boston and NYY. He would not fit in with this group of Dodgers. He is not a top FA, or even an honorable mention. That puts players like Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader more likely option in FA. I wonder why?
Profar? While many say no for any of the 2017 Astros, I say NO to Machado and Profar and other Padres. I would hold my nose on Fernando Tatis Jr. because he is talented, and he might be a better teammate once removed from Machado and Profar.
Nice report Jeff, you covered all the bases. I hope you are feeling better.
I was thinking about the rumored offers for Soto. Teams must think we escalated the bar by signing Ohtani san for so much and now they think other good players are worth near the same amount. But they might be seeing it all wrong because other good players don’t have the same potential to earn money for the team.
Soto is totally overrated. He wasn’t even the best player on his own team(Yankees). He is slow afoot and average on defense at best. His biggest asset is his youth. At 26 a team will get his prime years (26-32).
That is 6 years. Only half of a 12 year contract. After that, probably getting a declining DH.
Well, look what FF is still doing at 35 years old. And Soto is an even better hitter than FF.Can keep him in LF the next 4-5 years, than put him at 1b or DH (and put Shohei in LF or 1b).
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also look at Trout, who signed a record contract but has spent most of the past three seasons on the IL.
You may be right OD, but for the next 5 years or more he’s a 6-8 oWAR hitter. After that who knows but what teams will be looking for is someone who can help bring home championships.I don’t see Soto as the draw even his teammate Aaron Judge is, so putting butts in seats probably isn’t what teams are paying for. A 3 year $50 mil per makes more sense to the Dodgers but at $8 mil per WAR even that could be an overpay. I don’t know what he’s worth but all those lengthy contracts look very risky to me.
Good point OD. If he signs with the Yankees, or the Mets he won’t even be the best player on his team, Judge, and Lindor would both be more important to their teams than he would.
He certainly would not be the best player on the Dodgers. Mookie and Ohtani are both better.
Dave, in your last sentence, you are right on the money. The Dodgers will make hundreds of millions over the life of Ohtani’s contract. Add to that the return that they could get with the deferred monies over the next ten years, he’s realistically costing them nothing.
It is a fun time of year with all the possibilities still available for creating the 2025 active roster especially for a team seemingly willing to spend money. Is there a player that has not been linked in any way to the Dodgers that will come out of nowhere to become a new Dodger?
My preferred out-of-nowhere addition to the Dodgers would be Royce Lewis
We have agreed on wanting Royce Lewis for a long time. Just think it is a longer longshot than trading for Carlos Correa.
I took a look at the Twins’ stats and they have a lot of players with weak stats. Their first baseman is 38/39. Rushing would fit there. Lux looks stronger than their current 2nd baseman. They have a 3rd baseman that did well filling in for Lewis. I could mention Muncy but that is understood. Just tossing out some names but I have no clue who would be included in a trade for Lewis.
Sign Teo, Sasaki and Treinen. Play Pages in rightfield vs LHP and hunt for a platoon partner with him against RHP. Outman needs a look in the Spring but he needs to get his ass going.
I’m personally happy that the addition of Adames is finally settled and we can finally put an end to the 2+ year speculation that he needs to be a Dodger.
And please, let’s end any speculation of recycling Joc and Cody. That ship sailed long ago.
Maybe something will materialize for Lux, hopefully. I’d love to see him and CT3 elsewhere but AF just seems stubborn about CT3. But maybe someone falls in our lap.
Edmon and Miggy can hold the fort while Freeland gets ready, at minimal cost.
To me Betts moving to 2B is screwing everything up, especially if they don’t resign Teo. As it stands the OF without those two is not championship worthy. AF has to have something up his sleeve, because Pages, Edman, Outman, and Rushing won’t get it done; not by a long shot.
“To me Betts moving to 2B is screwing everything up”
It shouldn’t but you’re right, at the present time it sure feels like it.
“because Pages, Edman, Outman, and Rushing won’t get it done; not by a long shot.”
I agree. I do believe AF has a couple of somethings up his sleeve.
Conforto was up his sleeve. And we know the Dodgers are still hoping to re-sign Teoscar.
Moving Betts to 2B full-time makes a lot of sense to me. He wants to do it, and it theoretically well help him play at a high level as he gets older. Dino Ebel says he could win a Gold Glove at 2B.
Lux should have pretty good trade value. He finished ’24 strong. On the Dodgers, he was platooned. But on most teams he’d play full-time. He could still be a star in the right environment.
I don’t think Mookie, a franchise talent, should be jerked from OF to IF and back again for Lux’s benefit.
I too believe Mookie to second is best for him and the team. I’ve been pretty clear about that. The comment only referred to the hole moving him leaves in right field.
Does Conforto fill that hole? Maybe. He’s played RF before. He was a -0.9 dWAR outfielder last year, and it’s been a while since he was a home run threat. He did have a 119 wRC+ this season so, maybe that’s good enough for management.
I agree with you. I still don’t see why Mookie is better off in the infield. Seems like there would be more chances for him to get hurt.
Would be nice to get something done with Teo one way or another. I don’t think it is the dollars holding things up as much as the length of the contract. And of course waiting for the Soto shoe to fall. I would go 2 years/$52M with a team option 3rd year at $26M and a $2M buyout. I am not very optimistic about resigning him as I think some team will overpay in both dollars and years. I guess we will see how much he wants to be a Dodger.
I would still like the Dodgers to make a deal for Suzuki from the Cubs and possibly unload Taylor and resign Kike.
Championships are hard. If the Dodgers didn’t make another move they would still be considered as the favorites to win the World Series. Of course that means nothing. This time of the year is fun but when you need to make the move to win it all the Trading deadline is much more meaningful. Think Edmund, Flaherty. I hope they sign Teo but I won’t jump off the bridge if they don’t sign him. I think Roberts Jr. and Crochet would be a good get but some of the trade packages posted here are a way way overpay. Crochet hasn’t done anything to put him as a top end starter and Roberts can’t stay on the field. If we could get them at a reasonable cost that would be dandy.
Friedman said he doesn’t like trade deadline deals. For not liking them he’s pretty good at them.
yep
Garrett Crochet is 25.5 years of age, with 3.028 service time, and only one year as a starter. In that one year, in 146.0 IP, his K/9 was 12.9 and his K/BB was 6.33. If he had pitched 16 additional innings, he would have been #1 and #3 in MLB in those two categories respectively.
Compare his age to the Dodgers kids who do not have anywhere close to his numbers. Gavin Stone was the only one close to IP with 140.1, and he is out all of 2025.
Justin Wrobleski 24.4 years of age
Emmett Sheehan 25.1 years of age
Bobby Miller 25.7 years of age
Ben Casparius 25.8 years of age
Gavin Stone 26.1 years of age
Nick Frasso 26.1 years of age
River Ryan 26.3 years of age
Kyle Hurt 26.5 years of age
Landon Knack 27.4 years of age
So only two LAD pitchers, who project to be a back of the rotation starter or back in AAA, are younger than Garrett Crochet.
Gavin Lux has no position with LAD. He would do well with CWS, but be on the bench with LAD, and his trade value would evaporate. He has the same years of control as Crochet.
Dalton Rushing is a catcher who played all of 243.1 innings in LF. I continue to hear that anyone can play LF. How did Gavin Lux do out there? Rushing is a catcher who got additional ABs as he played LF. He has a 40 grade for run, so just how would you feel with a ball hit into the gap. He will have to play deeper to offset the slow foot speed, and that means more singles. Andy Pages who has played his entire professional career in the OF, and he still has problems with reading the ball off the bat. Is he really a LF for a WS favorite? He will never be the everyday starter behind the dish for LAD. Why is everyone so convinced that Rushing can hit MLB pitching? One of the knocks on Rushing is that he is slow to the fastball. MLB has elite FB pitchers. IMO, his best value for the team is to be included in a trade package.
Pitching depth, Gavin Lux, and Dalton Rushing are the most rumored LAD players in trades.
All that being said, Crochet is not high in the LAD trade chatter. Neither is Luis Robert Jr. That does not mean that the Dodgers will not get one or both.
Right now, the Dodgers are focused on Teoscar Hernández and Rōki Sasaki. Hopefully it will not take long for LAD and Teo to come to terms after Soto agrees to his new deal.
If Andrew waits until Soto signs, he suddenly going to have whichever of the Yankees, Mets, Jays and Red Sox who don’t sign Soto suddenly realizing they could pay Teo a lot of money and that would still be a drop in the bucket compared to what they won’t be paying Soto.
I’m beginning to think the holdup here isn’t on the Dodgers end but rather on Teo’s. His best strategy is to wait for Soto to sign and then let all of the interested teams start a bidding war for him.
I prefer James Outman to Dalton Rushing. Outman is a plus defender, and has far superior speed offensively and defensively. For the month of September at OKC:
Outman – .360/.429/.693/1.122 – 6 HR, 12 XBH, 19 RBI, 21.4 K rate – 84 PA
Rushing – .230/.338/.459/.797 – 4 HR, 6 XBK, 11 RBI, 21.4 K rate – 70 PA
I use September because this was the first full month for Outman after the delivery of Dasha and James’ first child.
Impressive finish for Outman. Dad strength?
I’ve always rooted for Outman–especially when some guy kept insisting the Miguel Vargas was so much better. A Outman/Edman platoon in CF could make a lot of sense, with Edman also sharing SS with Rojas.
Rushing simply is not an option for CF.
While some people think Conforto’s arrival could hasten a trade of Outman–certainly a possiblity–it might also hasten a trade of Rushing or Pages.
Crochet has had opportunities that young Dodger pitchers don’t get because he plays on a horse manure team. The young Dodger pitchers have to go through the mandatory TJ surgery (that has to change.) When a pitcher like Knack comes up, he knows he’s on a start to start tryout. I doubt Crochet has had to deal with that circumstance. Crochet coming to the Dodgers is okay but giving up Lux and Rushing plus some folks want to put in other players is not a trade that I see our front office making. The trade last off season involving Busch seems to be more of the mojo that our front office exhibits and its worked out.
Jeff, if forced to choose, would you prefer Crochet or Robert Jr.?
I’d prefer Robert, mostly because the Dodgers have that abundance of young pitching talent–a group that might soon include Sasaki.
But the OF talent seems thin, and the best are years away.
If I ran the White Sox, I would deal Crochet and Robert separately. (I think they are more likely to keep Robert in hopes he lives up to his “face of the franchise” potential.)
At any rate, if the White Sox dealt both, they could land three or four new ML starters and three or four strong prospects.
The Orioles are supposedly in talks for Crochet. They gave up three good prospects for a single season of Burnes.
Probably won’t happen, but it’s fun to imagine an outfield with Roberts flanked by Teo and Conforto.
Nightengale (cough cough) says Max Fried is down to BOS or NYY. He also says (cough cough) there’s a “gap” in Dodgers/Teoscar negotiations.
Per the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham:
Via a few sources: Teoscar Hernández has told people he would prefer to stay with the Dodgers but has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora. It could come down to the Sox and Dodgers.
And per Feinsand:
The Red Sox intend to pursue Teoscar Hernandez if they don’t sign Juan Soto, per source. Boston is believed to prefer Hernandez over Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays are also in the mix for Hernandez, though it appears they prefer the switch-hitting Santander.
Per Spotrac:
The #Mets are reportedly approaching $50M per year with Juan Soto (15 yrs, $750M).
Interesting to note that after quite a bit of research it appears that the Dodgers are linked only to the 50th ranked international player (before you ask, last year’s 50th ranked player signed for $800K)
Good Dennis Kim article on San Diego, the winter meetings and their potential budget flexibility:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5975789/2024/12/07/padres-winter-meetings-payroll-constraints/?source=tw_c_sd
Per the Red Sox beat reporter Cotillo:
Continue hearing Red Sox are just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all, at least to this point.
Cincinnati seen as a real threat to land Crochet. Yankees believed to be in, too.
Dick Allen and Dave Parker were both elected to HOF by Classic Era Committee. Both should be welcomed additions to HOF. This is especially true for Dick Allen. Allen had a career 58.7 WAR and 156 OPS+. Comparatively, Willie Stargell had a career 57.6 WAR and a 147 OPS+, and he was elected to HOF by BBWAA in his 1st year of eligibility. Dick Allen was not liked at all by the BBWAA. His highest percentage of BBWAA votes was 18.9%. Why?
Good choices. Congratulations to both.
Parker is really iffy to me. Has a cool nickname though.
But ever since Baines and Rice got in, it’s all kinda BS to me.
Yes, the bar has been lowered.
I agree Parker is iffy. Baines is not deserving. I am just partial to Jim Rice, so if Bill Mazeroski is in the HOF, I am okay with Rice.
Dick Allen absolutely deserves it.
Dick Allen, a player who ran into a palm tree in spring training and wrote MOM in the dirt at first base in Philadelphia, How could anyone not like him?
Dodgers and Michael Conforto agree to a one year deal, $17MM deal. I have no idea what this means for Teoscar.
A career .257/.359/.479 hitter with a 128 wRC+ vs. RHP, that’s the good news.
A 102 wRC+ against RHP in 2024 alone.
Conforto: .838 vs RHP, .705 vs LHP
Edman: .689 vs RHP, .831 vs LHP
Last Season:
133 wRC+ away vs 83 wRC+ home
Per Rosenthal:
Dodgers still in on Teoscar Hernández, sources say. Conforto LHH, Hernández RHH
Conforto’s most interesting split is home vs. away.
Seems like everybody not named Barry Bonds struggles in the big, beautiful park just off McCovey Cove.
On the road, Conforto slugged to a .853 OPS that included 17 of his 20 homers.
Escaping the Giants ballpark–whatever it’s called these days–could help Conforto get back to all-star form.
It occurs to me that Conforto got a one-year “prove it” deal much like Teo.
Yep Duke, getting out of SF will probably help Conforto much like getting out of Seattle’s ballpark benefitted Teo.
Dodgers in agreement on a 1 year deal with Michael Conforto
Dodgers and Conforto agree to a one-year $17 million deal. I completely trust AF/BG. My guess is Outman is being traded. Hope it doesn’t mean were out on Teo and I must confess Conforto is an underwhelming acquisition in my opinion.
Conforto does not play CF, so I am not sure how this means that Outman is going to be traded. He very well could be, but not because they signed Conforto. I am guessing that they are looking for a return to his NYM years. He has a .824 OPS in 7 years with NYM. Don’t judge him on his SFG years.
He is a LH hitter, so that should put Rushing back at OKC and out of the LAD LF plans for 2025. Like Teo, he can play LF and RF. I do not know what this means for Teo, but Conforto is not going to be paid $17MM to be a part time/platoon player. They could still sign Teoscar, and platoon Outman/Pages in CF, and leave Edman at SS.
Supposedly we didn’t get Crochet at the deadline because we wouldn’t include Rushing. Unless they don’t think they’re getting Teo and plan to have Rushing and Conforto as their two corner outfielders, maybe this means we’re about to get Crochet.
Here’s one I just dreamt up:
Dodgers get Crochet and Robert Jr
Sox get Rushing, Lux, Cartaya, Wrobleski/Frasso and Pages
Pretty good package, but I suspect White Sox would do better by trading Crochet and Robert Jr separately.
The question is does Conforto get a 10 million signing bonus and 5 million deferred 😁
I didn’t say he was going to play CF but I also don’t think there is a place for Outman as a LH hitting outfielder when they have a very expensive one in Conforto.
Does Outman go back to OKC….:perhaps but I think the odds are better he’s traded.
This snippet of encouraging news from Kiley McDaniel of ESPN:
Conforto not only had huge home/road splits last season…
133 wRC+ away vs 83 wRC+ home
…he also had one of the biggest gaps in free agency from wOBA to expected wOBA i.e. ball in play luck
.327 wOBA vs .352 xwOBA
Nice gamble by the Dodgers for less than the qualifying offer
100% agree.
Signing Conforto tells me that the Dodgers know they are not getting Soto.
I feel like it’s a signing for Bear.
Conforto is Heyward, but good. Maybe a lesser fielder, but better batter.
Per Feinsand:
Juan Soto and the Mets have agreed to a 15-year, $765 million deal, per sources.
Good grief
At least that’s overwith, and hey, we have Conforto and saved $748 million!
I think I’m taking Soto to Vegas with me. Two years ago he turned down a 15 year 440 mil contract from the Nationals. By waiting less than 3 years he tacked on an extra 325 million.
The really good ones ones almost always do better waiting for free agency.
No deferments. Opt-out after 5 years.
The Yankees’ final offer to Soto was 16 years and $760 million, per Feinsand. That’s a $47.5 million AAV; the Mets offer was for a $51 million AAV.
Now the Teoscar bidding begins in earnest. NYY, Boston, and Toronto are going to be bidding against LAD, and I think they will be aggressive. I think LAD wants Teoscar but signed Conforto as a just in case. I do not see the Dodgers signing Santander and losing draft picks and $1MM in International Bonus $$$. There is still trades out there that could be consummated.
Soto sweepstakes are now in the rear window, so the rest of the Hot Stove League can now take off.
Now, do the Mets also pay to keep Alonso?
He’s Yankee. AF better get the # up to 100 mil if he wants Teo
The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox all presumably also want either Santander or Teo.
I’m not a betting man, but I wouldn’t bet on the Dodgers getting into, much less winning, that bidding war.
The Mets have always been the favorite to sign Soto, so that isn’t shocking.
The pricetag is shocking–and another sign that baseball is gaining global appeal. Ohtani and now Soto have approached or eclipsed the top deals for soccer superstars like Messi.
Signing Conforto for one year strikes me as a solid, safe move. He hit to .759 OPS last season over 130 games, with 20 HRs. Conforto provides some veteran insurance in case Teoscar decides to move on. Having lost out on Soto, the Red Sox are reportedly making a strong pitch for Teo.
I still expect Teo to return to the Dodgers, but stuff happens. I assume Santander also has a strong market, and that the Dodgers see him as an alternative if Teo moves on.
Conforto doesn’t play CF, so I don’t think his arrival necessarily means that Outman will be traded. That said, I’d certainly wish Outman all-star success if he departs in a deal for Luis Robert Jr.
How about this as a possible OF, from left to right: Teo, Robert Jr, platoon of Conforto/Pages….
Or maybe not. In ’24, at least, Conforto had reverse splits. He’s a lefty hitter who hit to an .886 OPS against lefties, and .724 against northpaws.
So maybe keep Outman and trade Pages?
During those two years about 20 players changed organizations as Soto moved from team to team.
Some reports that Blake Treinen has been resigned for 2 years, $22mil
Not sure what to make of this:
https://x.com/AriA1exander/status/1865963213650612565
Welcome back Blake. Teo and Sasaki and call it a great off season!
“Ari Alexander is a 7-time Emmy Award-winning and Murrow Award-winning sports anchor and reporter.” He appears credible. MLBTR believes in Ari Alexander. So it appears good.
I like Soto. Seems like a good enough guy, but the Yankees must be really pissed.
They offered 16/760 to the Mets 15/765.
With money almost literally coming out of his ears, Soto had to get the last dollar, in other words, his year with Judge and the Yankees pretty much meant nothing to him.
If Teo winds up turning down 3/75 from Andrew to take 4/100 from someone else, I would find that perfectly understandable, but for Soto to go to the Mets because they offered an extra 5 mil on a 765 mil contract………..hey he’s allowed to sign wherever he wants to, but I just don’t understand that kind of thinking. Or maybe that wonderful experience he was supposedly having in the Bronx last year was all one big lie.
Great post STB that was a slap in the face to the Yankees, as much as I hate them, it kind of sucks from the Yankees POV
Hey Keith, are you the Keith who used to comment on TBPC?
Do you live in or near the South Bay?
Soto did them a favor.
Soto was in Judge’s shadow in the Bronx.
Maybe part of it was the money–and another part was the swaggering ego. With the Mets, Soto is now The Man.
And that’s OK.
I am hoping the Yankees sign Alonso, just as payback.
No offense, but why in every other profession is seeking the highest dollar accepted, but not here?
I know money isn’t everything to everyone, but it means a lot to most people.
There’s no reason the Yankees couldn’t have signed Soto, blame them not the player.
Same thing for Teo, if he can make more elsewhere he should and should be applauded for it.
I was specifically referring to the kind of numbers I mentioned. In Teo’s case there may be a decent percentage difference and, of course, he should take the higher amount.
In Soto’s case, it was basically pennies, based on the huge amount of the contract.
But you’re correct. He’s entitled to take the largest offer, even if it’s one penny more. And the Yankees could have matched the Mets (but of course Cohen would have just gone higher).
Appreciate the response and thoughts
On the surface it sounds like Soto was just after the money. There’s no telling what the Yankees offered. Soto got an opt out after 5 years no deferred money and escalators that could reach 800 million. The opt out can be voided by increasing the yearly aav to 60 million. What if the Yankees would not include an opt out or escalators and wanted to defer money. You can’t blame the player for taking the best offer
He gets to retire a year earlier. That is a thing. He plays with Lindor now. Boris did Boras.
I’ve been watching football all day (and still am) so I missed all the action
Good grief summed it up for me.
I hope Teo was serious about wanting to come back. Guess we’ll find out soon.
Conforto huh? I’m not impressed. Maybe they feel he’ll fit in this lineup. I’m still waiting for another splash.
Didn’t the Trienen deal give you a little bump.
Sure. It’s an important signing. But I don’t consider it a splash. Trading for Crochet and Jr would be a splash. Signing Burnes, Sasaki or Fried would be a splash. I still think something big is coming.
Agreed when AF came out in that interview saying he wanted to try to stay away from deadline deals, I figured they were going to be active.
I thought the same thing.
Treinen back in the fold. Now unload Taylor for Suzuki or sign Teo. Bring Buehler back. Keep the band together.
I’m real anxious to see how AF deals with the SS/CF issue, Edman can’t play both.
Actually he can. Just not at the same time. LOL. Edman starts in CF against lefties and SS against righties. Rojas at SS against lefties. Outman in CF against righties. Would be very helpful if Outman can find his 2023 mojo.
I don’t want to pee in the soup here but has anyone checked Edman’s offensive stats over the years? He’s a career 100 OPS+ hitter. Chris Taylor’s OPS+ is higher. Edman sure had some big clutch hits for us, but he only hit .237 with a 98 wRC+ as a Dodger. I’m glad he’s here, he’s a baller but his career offensive stats suggest he’s no Ben Zobrist.
Ed an has credited Betts with helping him with his swing while they were both rehabbing. So it’s possible what we saw this past year is what we will see going forward.
Question: who is going to be the next man up to get a ridiculous contract like Soto’s?
I was trying to think of a super young, super talented player. First name came to mind was Bobby Witt but he isn’t super young and just signed a big deal with KC.
Per ESPN, Roki Sasaki officially posted this morning:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42873728/hard-throwing-pitcher-roki-sasaki-officially-posted-mlb-teams