I know that my comments are swayed because of my total hate of the Padres. There isn’t one player that I have any care for, and that goes for their fans. NONE.
I hope the decision to hold Walker Buehler back for the start of the season was a good one. I understand the reason, and on paper it is a good one. Recovery from double TJ surgery is never a given. It is not Walker’s velo so that component looks to be back.
Will Buehler get his command back, especially his 4-seam command? He threw 27 4-seamers, got 12 swings, and just one whiff. His money pitch since his return, the cutter, produced 9 swings out of 17 pitches, but 0 whiffs.
Buehler has now given up 3 HR in 7.2 IP, 2 BB, 6 K. The problem appears to be one of command. Too many hitters counts, and an inability to get that 3rd strike, driving up the pitch count. With very little swing and miss, the ball is going to be hit.
The Dodgers have been getting some outstanding pitching, so they have time for Buehler to try and get his command in line with his past. Again, the success rate for double TJ surgery is not ideal, but the idea was to get Buehler ready for October. That is 4 ½ months away, certainly enough time to find it.
Yu Darvish dominated the LAD hitters. Darvish has generally been very tough on LAD. He threw all 8 of his pitches. He had 101 pitches, 57 swings, and 19 whiffs. In addition to the 19 whiffs, Darvish also had 17 called strikes. 36% of Darvish’s pitches were either whiffs or called strikes. He had 4 hard hit balls against him, and only 1 > 100MPH…a Will Smith ground out in the 1st inning.
A more discouraging statistic is their hitting against the Padres in general, and more importantly hitting WRISP.
Revisiting the 2022 playoffs, the Dodgers were 5-34 WRISP in the 2022 NLDS, 2-26 in their last three games, all losses. They hit 4 HR in the series, and 3 solo in Game 2 which accounted for all of their runs. They lost by 2 (5-3), and were 0-8 WRISP. 0-9 WRISP in a 2-1 loss in Game 3. 2-9 in a 5-3 loss in Game 4.
As a team for the season, the Dodgers have a run differential of +74, and an overall hitting WRISP is at .265 (101 for 381). Their runs per game is 5.24.
Against the Padres, the Dodgers average runs per game is 4.625, their run differential is -4, and their hitting WRISP is .221 (17 for 77).
What is it about the Padres that seem to have the Dodgers number, especially when they have runners in scoring position. The Dodgers get a fair number of HRs against SD, but most are solo shots.
One positive is the defense that was displayed this weekend. There was some excellent defense from Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, Gavin Lux, Andy Pages, and James Outman.
It also appears that Walker Buehler still needs some more PFP.
Time to get to work against San Francisco. On Monday, Gavin Stone tries to build on his last three games. 20.0 IP, 3 runs (all earned), 3 BB, 11 K, and 3 HR. Stone pitches to contact, so his command needs to be at his best. He will be facing hard throwing RHP, Jordan Hicks. Jordan is starting for the first time he has started since 2022. He was a reliever until 2022 when St. Louis turned to Hicks as a starter for 8 games that did not go well. He returned to his customary relief role. Hicks’ last two starts are more reminiscent of his 2022 starts than his April starts.
Tuesday, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will go up against rookie RHP Keaton Winn. Like Hicks, Winn had a respectable April, but has been dismal in May. In 2 starts, Winn has completed 4.1 IP, 12 hits, 12 runs, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 HR.
Wednesday Logan Webb will start for SF. Doc has already said that Tyler Glasnow will be getting an extra day, so the Dodgers starting pitcher will be the elite TBD.
Jason Heyward will be starting his rehab on Tuesday. I am assuming that unless his back flares up, he will be activated for the weekend against the Reds. I know much has been speculated as to what the corresponding 26 man roster change. I came across the picture below.
It looks like Jason Heyward is looking over at James Outman knowing what he is reading is a ticket to OKC, and Andy Pages is standing back and thinking…”Leave me out of this”.
MiLB Game Summary Report
OKC Baseball Club 7 – Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston) 4
This looked to be a nice pitcher’s duel between OKC’s Landon Knack and Sugar Land’s José Urquidy. Sugar Land struck in the bottom of the 1st. A single, a 2-out BB, a second single, and the Space Cowboys had a run.
OKC got the run back in the 2nd on Andre Lipcius’ 10th HR of the year. In the third, Drew Avans drew a 2-out BB. He stole 2B and scored on Miguel Vargas’ double. Vargas scored on Trey Sweeney’s single.
In the 6th, Miguel Vargas followed three walks with a 2-out grand slam.
THE MIGUEL VARGAS GAME!
He swats his second grand slam of the season! pic.twitter.com/sSRTmX6QpN
— Oklahoma City Baseball Club (@okc_baseball) May 12, 2024
Landon Knack was pitching great through five. He allowed one single and one walk in the 4th as the only base runners after the 1st inning. But in the 6th, Knack a single and walk to open the inning. After a K, David Hensley hit a 3-run HR. After the one-out HR, and 5.1 IP, John Rooney relieved Knack and got out of the inning. Nick Ramirez, Matt Gage, and Michael Petersen each pitched a scoreless inning, with Petersen getting his 3rd save.
Landon Knack got the win today for OKC:
5.1 IP
5 H
4 ER
3 BB
5 K
88 P / 54 SThree of the four runs he allowed scored on a three-run homer to the last batter that he faced, so one could argue he overall pitched better than his line shows
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) May 12, 2024
Miguel Vargas was the hitting star in his one. He went 3-5, with a double (13) and grand slam (8) for 5 RBIs.
Tulsa Drillers 9 – Midland RockHounds (A’s) 6
The Tulsa Drillers rebounded in a big way in their final game against the Midland RockHounds on Sunday afternoon. After almost falling victim to a perfect game less than 24 hours prior, the Drillers offense scored nine runs in the series finale, aided by three Midland errors. Diego Cartaya also helped Tulsa’s cause in a big way by earning three hits and driving in three runs.
Midland’s bats stayed hot early as Daniel Susac gave the RockHounds a 1-0 lead with an RBI single.
The Drillers broke out of their slump by scoring three runs in the second inning. Two singles set the stage for Cartaya, who gave Tulsa the lead with a three-run homer. It was his first home run since April 18, and 2nd of the season.
Let us introduce everyone to our good friend, Diego Cartaya 💥pic.twitter.com/C79lXkjeJ8
— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) May 12, 2024
Midland brought the score to 3-2 with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the second.
A double steal in the third inning helped set the RockHounds up to score their third run as a groundout scored Cooper Bowman from third base to tie the game at 3-3.
After Tulsa completed its own double steal, two errors scored two runs to put the Drillers back in front.
They scored their final four runs in the seventh inning. Midland’s third error of the game allowed the inning’s first two runs to score. Alex Freeland and Taylor Young drove in two more with a single and sacrifice fly, putting Tulsa up 9-3.
Midland refused to go down easy in the final two innings. After scoring their fourth run in the eighth inning, the RockHounds scored two more runs before an out was recorded in the ninth to make the score 9-6. Tulsa manager Scott Hennessey was forced to turn to Sauryn Lao to record the final three outs, as he struck out two and recorded his second save of the season.
The offensive performance helped give Tulsa starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski his second win. The Dodgers #15 ranked prospect completed five innings and was charged with three runs and struck out six.
Besides the home run, Cartaya earned two other hits to finished 3-for-4 on the afternoon. He also hit his 2nd double of the season.
Austin Beck was 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run.
Yeiner Fernandez increased his on-base streak to 22 straight games by earning two walks. His streak is currently the longest active streak in the Texas League.
Lao’s save made him 2-for-2 in save opportunities this season. He has not allowed a run in his last eight appearances over 11.0 innings and lowered his ERA to 2.45.
Cartaya’s home run increased the Drillers total to 37 this season, the most in Double A.
Lansing Lugnuts (A’s) 4 – Great Lakes Loons 3
The Lansing Lugnuts (16-17) took the series finale and their third straight from the Great Lakes Loons (20-13) 4-3 after a ninth-inning homer from Euribiel Angeles on a 64-degree sunny Mother’s Day Sunday afternoon at Dow Diamond.
The Loons grabbed a 2-1 lead in the fourth, three straight Great Lakes batters reached. Dylan Campbell walked, Sam Mongelli singled, and Yunior Garcia drove both of them in with a 106 mph double up the left-field line. Garcia has 12 RBI in 15 games.
In the bottom of the fifth, the Loons grabbed another run after an infield RBI single from Sam Mongelli. Thayron Liranzo scored from third after reaching on, his first of three singles on the afternoon. Lansing’s Yehizon Sanchez forced a flyout to leave the bases loaded and keep the deficit at two.
Jared Karros and Jerming Rosario pitched for the second time this week, each going three innings. Karros struck out four, working around three walks, to extend his scoreless inning streak to 19 innings. Rosario also walked three but stranded four on base. Lansing’s CJ Rodiguez put them on the board with an RBI single in the fourth.
The Lugnuts tied the game at three in the seventh. Against Livan Reinoso, Henry Bolte went yard, his second game in a row with a long ball. Euribel Angeles walked and stole second base and was driven home by Danny Bautista Jr. Bautista Jr. was thrown out at second, seconds after Angeles came across the plate.
Both teams held serve in the eighth, Franklin De La Paz on the hill for the Loons and Wander Guante’s third scoreless frame for Lansing. Kelvin Ramirez, who carried a 6.2 scoreless inning streak into the game, retired the first two Lugnuts batters in the ninth. Euribel Angeles took the first pitch he saw from Ramirez, 401 feet to left field, and a 4-3 Lansing lead.
Noah Miller extended his hitting streak to seven games with two singles.
Great Lakes had four blown saves in the six-game set. Colton Johnson induced a game-ending double play for his third save of the week.
- Thayron Liranzo – 3-4, 1 BB, 1 run
- Noah Miller – 2-5
- Sam Mongelli – 2-4, 1 run, 1 RBI
- Dylan Campbell double (4) and Yuniot Garcia double (2)
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 3 – Visalia Rawhide (Arizona) 2
A ninth-inning sac fly from Samuel Munoz capped a big day for the Rancho outfielder, as the Quakes beat the Rawhide 3-2.
Munoz, who clubbed a two-run go-ahead homer (1) in the seventh.
Samuel Munoz smashes this spinner way gone for his first home run at @RCQuakes pic.twitter.com/2nshVbxUTX
— ∞ The Infinite Dodger ∞ (@InfiniteDodger) May 12, 2024
Tied at 2-2, the Quakes got consecutive singles from Jordan Thompson and Logan Wagner to open the inning against Rawhide closer Yordin Chalas. That brought Munoz to the plate, with his fly ball to shallow-left scoring Thompson for a 3-2 lead.
Joseilyn Gonzalez worked around a one-out double in the ninth, striking out Jackson Feltner to end the game and earn his first save of the year.
Reynaldo Yean retired all four batters he faced for the win in relief. Roque Gutierrez had a strong start in the no-decision, allowing just one run over five innings.
No, SD is just one of the few teams in the league that can stand toe-to-toe with us.
Another frustrating effort against the Padres. On the bright side and mentioned by Jeff, the defense was outstanding. One incredible play after another. Too bad it didn’t help the team to beat the Padres. The offensive for the series was troubling and the Padre pitchers seem to rise to the occasion when facing the Dodger hitters. The Dodgers were 1 for 19 with RISP. In that respect they are playoff ready. Without the Hernandez grand slam things would have been even bleaker. The team only managed six runs and 13 hits in the three games. They struck out at a 26% rate. On to SF and hopefully some offensive medicine against the 24th ranked staff (4.51 ERA). Right now the Dodgers are ranked #3 in MLB and #1 in the NL with a 3.17 ERA.
Walker Buehler’s progress may be a slow one which is totally understandable considering he hasn’t pitched for almost two years. It’s not only the physical recovery, but the mental aspect of it all as well. Walker is a smart guy, he knows how to pitch, and has access to some of the best coaching to get himself back on track. Will he return to his previous dominance? I doubt it. But, he certainly can become an effective pitcher again. Fortunately, for him, the Dodgers, and the fans this team will allow him a fair chance to be a successful MLB pitcher.
Betts, Smith, and Pages hitting has cooled some in this series. That was to be expected considering how hot Betts and Smith were. Mookie hasn’t hit a HR since April 12th. He hit six in the first 16 games and nothing since. That’s just crazy.
I’m looking forward to watching Gavin Stone tonight. It’s fun to see him and other Dodger pitching prospects come up and have success.
Carry on.
I love the “caption this” bit!
more of that!
The Padres could win 90+ if they play to their potential, which would put them 10 games behind the Dodgers if the Dodgers play to their potential. But funny things happen on the way to fulfilling potential.
Which brings us to Walker Buehler.
Walker Buehler is a guy that got to the bigs throwing as hard as he can for as long as he can. He had TJ surgery out of college then another one a few short years later. Recovery from TJ surgery is about a year for the first one, even longer for the second one. And what is the success rate for those with two? Some reports say around 50%. The Dodgers have two starters on the team who have had their second TJ surgery. Ohtani and Buehler. What are the chances both fully rebound? I’d say 50%. And at 185 pounds Buehler is built more like Tim Lincecum, and we know what happened to him.
All I’m saying is when it comes to Buehler and future potential, beware of expectations.
Jeff, I think you’ve got it right with the photo. Outman has to go down to OKC and work out his hitting woes when Heyward is ready. The questions remain, what the hell do you do with CT3 longterm? Some youngster needs an opportunity.
I have referred to the Dodgers having a water spigot offense. It’s either turned on full blast or it’s shut completely. Just like in the playoffs.
Love it! We went from “Best Team Ever?” to “Padre Bit” within 3 days.
Best team ever?
Cant argue with this:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1995178-bleacher-reports-official-rankings-of-the-50-greatest-teams-in-mlb-history
110-44. .714 win percentage. Won the World Series. 3 of the Top 4 were Yankee teams.
Yep. It’s the Yankees.
Will this year’s Dodgers team enter that group?
Here’s a link to an interesting article from Mike Petriello on some new stats Statcast is doing with regard to hitters. As he mentions, they’re trying to catch up with the huge amount of info now available on pitching.
If you aren’t into lots of baseball numbers, don’t even bother to read this, but if you like to delve into what makes hitters have certain results (Badger, Phil, Jeff) I think you’ll find this interesting.
Would sure like to see what CT3’s numbers look like. Maybe he needs to refine his swing to be more like Arraez and Kwan as opposed to Stanton.
https://www.mlb.com/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-statcast-bat-tracking?partnerId=it-20240513-9833659-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20240513-9833659-mlb-1-A&lctg=74090925
Thanks for the link. Some interesting stuff. Couple of comments;
1. It would be interesting to know the MLB average swing length.
2. A joint probability of swing length with some of the other metrics would be interesting. Such a comparison could shed light on the “optimal” approach to hitting.
3. Stanton’s bat speed looks like an extreme distribution compared to the league. It would be very interesting to see how players such as Taylor and Muncy compare.
You mention Taylor; he supposedly did try to change his swing to make more contact. Can’t say I ever saw any difference and he is now trying to go back to his previous approach. Unfortunately, neither approach seems to be working.
He needs to accept a trip to OKC to work on remaking his swing. It is not going to happen playing once or twice a week in the show.
Good read. Thanks.
My initial reaction is one I’ve had many times in discussions here and with baseball friends, students, and teammates over the years. Everyone is built differently with different muscle makeup of fast twitch and slow twitch. I believe MLB players must all have predominant fast twitch makeup or they wouldn’t get that far. Also, everyone has different eyesight strength. Those with the gift of 20/10 vision obviously have an advantage when it comes to recognizing spin.
The one constant that has remained since I first learned it listening closely to those who knew a lot about hitting is simply this: get a good pitch to hit and hit it hard. Someone in my past, don’t remember who, might have been Tommy Davis, said “7 out of 10 line drives are base hits”. Looks like the actual numbers may be closer to 6 out of 10. Whatever, that stuck with me over the years. The point remains the same and that is if you work hard training the mechanics (read biomechanical analysis of baseball swing to know exactly how to train) and be disciplined in pitch selection you will succeed at hitting, which includes success at getting on base by not chasing pitches out of the strike zone.
Constants everywhere in baseball and softball: If youre big and strong (Stanton) your line drives could turn into blasts that clear fences. If you’re smaller and quicker (Arreaz, and most every other average sized baseball player in the world) you’ll get a lot of base hits.
Again, thanks for that link Jefe. I’ll be reading it again and again.
Regular stats (slash lines/HR/RBI/ERA/WHIP) I get brom Baseball Reference or Fangraphs. Statcast has been my deep dive into stats for a few years. It is a fantastic source.
STB, this is great. I’ll have to spend some time with this before I can make an intelligent comment assuming I can actually do that.
It dawns on me, as a side thought, with all this data and analysis, are we further seeking a way to turn players into robots. There are certainly variables in pitchers but the science has tried to show critical spots in mechanics for health and maximizing performance.
The hitters have some catching up to do but with information and analysis of things in this article, is there ideal mechanics for hitters to be most successful? And that is an attempt to make players robots. The individuality is replaced in the pursuit of the perfect swing.
Kinda looks like the modern golf swings.
It wasn’t best team ever; it was best Dodger team ever. 27 Yankees have long been considered the best and still are. As for yesterday’s loss, well for one thing, the A-team was not out there. No Ohtani and Mookie is slumping badly, so is Smith and Darvish pitched one of his better games. Buehler was missing location his entire time on the mound and the Padres took advantage. They were 9-4 against the Padres last year outscoring them 75-53 in the 13 games. No two years are the same. The Padres have had their number so far this season going 5-3. 5 games left and 3 of them in the last month of the season. Two in SD at the end of July when they also play Houston in Houston. Miller will be back soon, and Kershaw sometime after the All-Star break. I also think it is time to cut ties with Taylor and send Outman back to OKC to work on his game. It seems like Pages can cover CF for now. Vargas is strictly an outfielder now; I would rather see someone like Lipcius or Owings brought up to replace Taylor, who at this point has very little value and is not playing at all. Giants most likely will not have Conforto, who was just placed on the 10-day IL or Lee for this series. Lee suffered a separated shoulder.
I would bet on Outman going down when Heyward comes back. KT3 needs to accept a trip to OKC to work things out.
Yes, if he did that it would be great, but I think OKC is not the best place to work on his hitting. Going to the training complex in Az where he could get many more at bats before going to OKC for what basically would be a rehab assignment would be best. Outman will be the odd man out. Pages has been much better than he has and has shown he can handle centerfield. Pitching change for tonight, Yamamoto is facing the Giants with Stone pitching tomorrow. TBD on Wednesday. I do not think that Vargas would be called up to replace Taylor if he did go down. Vargas only plays the outfield now, so I think someone like Owings or Lipcius should get the call if that happens.
I agree with you…Taylor will not go to OKC. José Abreu is officially assigned to the FCL Astros, but he is not playing for them. If (HUGE IF) Taylor were to agree, he would go to Camelback. Very unlikely since the better hitting coaches are supposedly in LA. What advantage would it be for him to go to Dodgers ACL? He can continue to work through his issues with MLB coaches and MLB players surrounding him. Abreu is 37 and this is probably his last contract. He wants to keep playing and the likelihood of some team picking him up (except maybe the White Sox) is very long odds. If Taylor (33) is released, some team will pick him up, and he will have a year and a half to improve before his next shot at FA…and on the Dodgers dime. Taylor has had 55 ABs with the Dodgers this year. He is hardly a factor to their winning or losing.
Neither Lipcius or Owings is on the 40 man. The only way they make it to MLB is if Taylor is released.
40 man issues will be coming soon enough when Graterol, Kershaw, May, and Sheehan potentially come off the 60 Day IL and need to be added to the 40 man.
Miller will be back before May or Sheehan. Kersh won’t be until after the all-star break.
Walker Buehler = Noah Syndergaard???
Way toooo early to tell. Syndergaard refused to listen to his coaches. I do not think Walker is built that way. He will never be as dominant as he was. He will never be a 200 IP and 200 K pitcher ever again. He has to get that out of his head. He said the words…”I am not the #1 pitcher here.” Now he has to believe it and adjust. BUT he can still be a Nathan Eovaldi type pitcher. Sit down with Clayton Kershaw who has accepted he no longer is the dominant pitcher he was, and he is a HOF pitcher. Learn from him.
Walker’s dilemma is that this is his FA year. He will be 30 when he beomes a free agent, and if he thinks about a 1 year pillow contract, that will take him to his 31.
Eovaldi signed a $2MM contract with Tampa in 2017 (the year he was out), with a club option of $2MM for 2018, which Tampa exercised. He was traded to Boston July 25, 2018, and pitched well in his final 12 games (11 starts) of 2018. He was then even better in the playoffs. He started three games and pitched 22.1 innings. His ERA in the three starts was 1.61 and his WHIP was .806. That was against NYY (7.0 IP), Houston (7.1 IP) and the Dodgers (8.0 IP). He turned that into a 4 year $68MM contract with the Red Sox. He was 29, with one full season behind him. That is still $17MM per year. His current contract is 2 years at $34MM, or $17MM per year.
Eovaldi has only pitched a complete season in one of the seasons since his 2nd TJ, 2021. He has 21, 12, 20, and 25 starts in his other 162 game seasons.
The Dodgers will obviously give him a qualifying offer, which he can accept or take his chances. He can get more in an overall guarantee, but the one year will be more than his AAV, so maybe he accepts the QO to prove himself and then hop back into the FA market.
None of that matters unless he gets his command back. That comes with repetition. He might have to get beat up a few more times, but guys from Vanderbilt are not stupid. I say he becomes a #3/#4 by October. And what is wrong with that, 1st year back from 2nd TJ surgery?
The guy has pitched in two games since his return, and maybe 10 in the last two seasons counting his rehab assignments. It is not going to return overnight.
I am not sure it will ever return. Can he still be a productive winning pitcher…ABSOLUTELY. Dominating like 2021???
I will be very curious to see how Jacob deGrom comes back this year. Both deGrom and Buehler overpowered hitters. Eovaldi was never overpowering.
Eo threw 100
The new top 100 prospects list is out. The Dodgers placed three players on the list. Pages is #52, Rushing is #53, and DePaula is #82.
Whose list is that?
MLB.com
Bear, how long does a player have to play in MLB until they are no longer a prospect on this list with MiLB players?
Well Outman played a full season and he was no longer a prospect. Pages has been here only three weeks. If he finishes the season, and is in the ROY conversation, I would think that he would no longer be considered a prospect.
I believe that in order to qualify for their list a prospect has to have been active on an MLB roster for 45 days or less. IL visits stop the clock.
Once they cross that 45 day line (and I believe that’s calendar days, not games), they are no longer considered a prospect.
Maybe Jeff can confirm that.