The Dodgers go into this season as the odds-on favorite to win the World Series again. Fans expect it, and so do many pundits. And to be sure, they have assembled a team that on paper, is much better than last year’s squad. The starting pitching is solid and so far, healthy. There are a couple of questions in the bullpen with Phillips, Kopech and Graterol not being ready by opening day. May is going to be the fifth starter. Gonsolin will not be on the roster opening day due to back issues. Kershaw is due back at some point as is Ohtani.
Last year’s team had to fight through a rash of injuries that hit every single starting pitcher. They were forced to trade for one at the deadline. We all hope that will not be the case this season. This spring, Yamamoto has looked very good, Sasaki has impressed in his few outings. Glasnow has been just missing his spots. I think he is working on his control. May looked good. Snell has only pitched 4.2 innings, so it is hard to tell where he will be come opening day. Wrobleski has looked very good, but he misses the cut because of the numbers.
The bullpen has some very good arms. Lefty relievers have looked very good. Dreyer has been very impressive, Vesia and Banda look like they are ready to go. New addition, Tanner Scott, who has already been named the closer, has struggled some, but looked better the last couple of outings. Blake Treinen has a spring ERA over 11. But spring numbers for a guy with his pedigree do not mean much. That is why I am not so worried about Kirby Yates. Yates has given up 9 runs in 4.2 innings. Second only to Landon Knack who has given up 10 in 6.2 innings.
But I ask this question. Are we as fans, overestimating how good our pitching will be? Here is another thing to think about. Five of the last eight Dodger seasons, they have won over 100 games, including a team record 111 in 2022. None of those teams advanced to the World Series. In fact, only three of the Dodger teams that won 100 or more ever advanced to the series. All three lost. The 53 Dodgers who won 105, a team record at the time, the 41 team, which won 100, and the 74 team with 102 wins. The 22-team lost three in a row in the LDS to the Padres.
There are two spots in the lineup that remain to be addressed. And we probably won’t know who is manning either of them until opening day. Centerfield and second base. Many posters here, and on some other blogs, suggest Mookie should have stayed in right field, or moved to second base with Rojas playing SS every day. The problem is that Mookie is driven to prove that he can be and All-Star caliber SS. So, until further notice, #50 on your scorecard is your starting SS.
Some here also agree that Andy Pages is no centerfielder. He is more suited for a corner outfield spot. Many would have loved to see James Outman take control of his own destiny, wake up his sleeping offense and become the regular center fielder at least against RHP. That has not happened. A platoon of the two could happen, but in reality, that serves neither of them in the long run. Both need regular playing time. One of them will most likely start the year at AAA. Pages I believe has a slight edge since the first two games this week will be against LHP.
I tend to temper my expectations since there are way too many intangibles that can affect a seasons’ outcome. Personally, although I love the starting 9, I feel the bench is not that strong. Barnes is who he is, a weak hitting backup catcher who has the total support of his pitching staff. Barnes, the longest tenured position player on this team is the DeFacto captain. This is not the year that Hunter Feduccia will get his chance to be a backup for Smith unless something drastic happens to Barnes.
Kike is there because of his versatility and his penchant for big hits come playoff time. He has occasional power, and his defense is excellent, but do not expect a high BA or OPS. Miguel Rojas is also an excellent defender. His job right now is to be ready in case Mookie falls flat on his face as a SS. Little power from Miggy. But he has had some good offensive numbers lately. Chris Taylor is Kike cloned. He is an excellent defender. But over the last several years, his offense has suffered. Most fans wish Taylor gone. Many cannot understand why the front office has held on to Taylor despite his offensive woes. Only the front office knows why. Will he be on the opening day roster? Right now, I would say he is a lock.
There is no left-handed hitting option on the bench. All of the lefties are in the starting lineup. I find this to be a shortcoming for this team, but maybe that is just me. The bench is one of the reasons I am tempering my expectations a lot. Pages crushes left-handed pitching. Outman has not shown enough in my opinion to push Pages off of the roster, even though he is a superior defender. But with Kike, and Taylor, also very good CF’s, the Dodgers could carry Outman’s bat in the short term while letting Pages get experience as a CF at AAA. But I doubt that will happen simply because Edman can play CF too. I would much rather see Edman at second base every day.
I believe the team is more than good enough to win the division again. But they are facing at least one team in the division who feels they are up to the task of taking the Dodgers down, Arizona. One thing I believe, LA is going to have to beat up on the weaker teams. Last season, they did not do a great job of that. They have a huge target on their back because of their ability to basically buy what they need. The whole league is gunning for the Dodgers. They have the added pressure from fans who expect nothing less than another title. Late note: Mookie most likely ruled out for the Cubs series. He has been very ill with flu-like symptoms. He has lost about 15 pounds.
Born June 14th, 1948, in Los Angeles California. AKA The Bear
I really do not care if Mookie misses the two games against the Cubs. They need him to be ready for when the season kicks off against the Tigers in LA. There is a chance they send him back to LA early so he can recover at home.
Are expectations high? Of course. Are they too high? That’s a good question.
I still have them taking the West while winning over 100 games. We’ve talked about potential weaknesses with injuries at the top of the list. If there are no injuries this team could win 116 games.
But let’s face it, no team goes an entire season without injuries. And with how the Dodgers manage the pitching staff injuries there are going to happen. And they know it. That is why they have bolstered the entire staff the way they have. There’s a 6 man rotation ready to go and there is an 8 man rotation on the injury list. If they all get back the Dodgers would have the deepest pitching staff in the history of baseball.
There’s also centerfield. No matter who is out there they will hit at the bottom of the order. I would prefer that position was a middle order hitter. You know, somebody like Robert Jr.
But I’m not really worried about how this team will fare this year. This team is deep and talented.
Mookie. I think he should be sent home. On a chartered plane all by himself.
Aren’t the Cubs also in Japan? I haven’t heard a word about them. I wonder if they feel invisible over there. I’ll bet they are looking forward to playing the popular behemoth Dodgers.
Very good post. The pitching is fragile. We’ll need some horses like Casparius & Banda to be everyday warriors. Maybe Sauer too.
Interesting read as always Michael. No expectations are not too high.
I think we’ve all seen enough baseball to know that slumps happen and injuries derail the best laid plans, but this is where we have a distinct advantage – we have cover at every position (depth), and our depth is better than everyone else’s depth.
We also have a very strong farm from which to
go July shopping, and our Rotation looks to be one of the best in MLB in recent times.
The big advantage we have is that the season will be managed with the Post Season in mind, a luxury others can’t afford. Innings Counts and 6 man Rotations to ensure maximum results.
One small thing I have to correct you on is your use of the term “odds on”.
:Odds On “ having or viewed as having a better than even chance to win”
This is not how the Bookies see it. The Dodgers this morning are $2.75 /1 (here in the Uk you can get $3.5 / 1 so they are actually “odds against”.
If they were even money they’d be $1/1
Odds on means you’d have to place more money say $2 to win $1 – commonly known as 2 to 1 on.
I was lucky enough to back the Dodgers at 6/1 last season for a near $4K return. This year I’m on at 5/1 to win $5k.
Looking forward to the first game of the season tomorrow – a nice 10am start here – can watch at work.
It will take a very good team win the WS this year.
I don’t gamble, so thanks for the clarification.
We gamble every day Bear. We get up and go out into a world that has gone bat sh*t crazy. Be careful out there.
I am very careful nowadays.
What’s the most you ever lost on the toss of a coin?
So the news on Mookie is not encouraging, been so sick that he is reported to have lost 15 lbs., probably mostly water but when you loose that much weight that quickly you do lose some muscle. He hasn’t been able to get any batting practice or fielding practice (for a guy trying to become a MLB SS that isn’t a good thing). This is going to be a major setback for Mookie, we may very well see a season of mostly Rojas at SS, my personal preference all along. Last year Mookie trying to become a SS, he gets his wrist fractured, this year he barfs and craps his brains out, I’m seeing a pattern here, maybe it isn’t meant to be. I’m pulling for Mookie and also hoping he didn’t infect the rest of the team when he traveled from LA to Tokyo.
It seems what he has is not infectious. He had been sick before they left according to some sources, that is why he missed the last couple of games in Arizona. Good chance he gets sent home early. He has 10 days to get better before opening day. I don’t think he will play the exhibition games against the Angels. If he doesn’t play SS, where do you put him? RF? That is Teo’s place now. 2B? Possibility. Rojas is too old to play SS everyday anymore.
Agree that Miggy is too old to play 150 MLB games at SS. He only started 67 games at SS last year. He started 11 games at 2B, and 8 games at 3B. If Mookie moves to 2B, Edman can share SS with Rojas, or Kim or Taylor. The Dodgers have options with their depth.
Don’t forget about Hernandez.
And Kim
Kim needs to prove he can hit, at this point he is less of a prospect to play SS than Freeland.
I doubt that there was a legit battle for CF coming to Tokyo. Pages started and played the entirety of both games in CF against RH pitchers. That decision has been made, and it was made probably prior to ST.
Outman had a chance to make a statement. He made the wrong statement even though he has better ST numbers than Pages, and yet he could not get the start in Tokyo against RHP. To me that speaks volumes. He looks dejected and defeated. It is time to move him to another team. He is a perfect change of scenery candidate. Does he have trade value? NOPE!! But he isn’t even insurance for LAD. Hyeseong Kim will get called before Outman. Dalton Rushing, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Chavis are capable corner OF if Teo or Conforto go down.
If you look at the Dodgers Spring Training Stat Page, Outman is considered a DH and not a CF.
Even my wife, who is the biggest Outman fan outside of his family, recognizes that James had a chance to take the job, and he did not. I know there are plenty of Outman fans and plenty of Outman dissenters. Same is true with Pages. There are going to be upset fans regardless.
I doubt that there was a legit battle for CF coming to Tokyo. Pages started and played the entirety of both games in CF against RH pitchers. That decision has been made, and it was made probably prior to ST.
Outman had a chance to make a statement. He had better numbers than Pages leaving Arizona, and yet he could not get the start against RHP. To me that speaks volumes. He looks dejected and defeated. It is time to move him to another team. He is a perfect change of scenery candidate.
I agree. Maybe he can still carve out a Jason Repko/Romano career.
I think we all agree that Pages is not a very good CF, maybe the Dodgers feel that offense is king and defense the pauper. Personally, they seem to have plenty of offense and if anything that can be sacrificed it is a little offense (from any given player) in exchange for better defense.
I thought the same when Kiermeyer was on the WS team and Outman wasn’t.
Hey Fred, I think we might have a chance to trade for Royce Lewis now. He’s injured again, this time a hamstring, and his trade value is gradually sinking.
Put together a package and I’ll present it to the Twins. I think we would have every right to expect that we could get more games from him than the Angels got from Rendon.
All kidding aside, I really hate to see a guy with so much potential have all these injuries derail his career. As with Buxton, he may still be young enough to overcome what he’s gone through so far, but the Twins seem to have a knack of finding these guys.