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Are the Dodgers too Home Run Dependent?

                                                     Years ago, MLB ran a campaign with the slogan, ” Chicks dig the long ball”.  The Dodgers this season have depended on homers to generate a large percentage of their runs. With the bottom of the lineup struggling, Freeman out for at least a few more games, it seems they could use some old-fashioned baseball rallies instead of waiting for the 3-run bomb.  In the game played on Tuesday against the Nationals, both teams hit 2 homers. The difference was both of the Dodgers HRs were solo shots. DC got a 2 and 3 run homer from James Wood. 

                                                    For the last several years, the philosophy of the Dodgers hitting coaches seems to be keep the ball off of the ground and use launch angle for maximum effect. That philosophy changed Justin Turner’s career. For him, that type of hitting came pretty easy and he his production improved. Chris Taylor used that philosophy, and it changed his career too. He added a lot of power to his game, but he also added something else, a lot of swing and miss. 

                                                  Natural power hitters have always struck out a lot. But some of them were also pretty good hitters. Reggie Jackson struck out 2597 times in 9864 at bats. Jim Thome is the only other batter with over 2500 career Ks. He struck out 2548 times in 8422 at bats. Thome’s career avg was .276 with 612 homers. Jacksons was .262 with 563 homers. By comparison, Ruth was a .342 career hitter and struck out 1330 times. 

                                                 This season, the hitters in MLB are averaging just  .239. The pitchers seem to have the upper hand. The Dodgers have scored 6 runs in two games against a team whose team ERA is 4.45. Four of those runs came on homers. Only Ohtani’s came with anyone on base. Well over 60 percent of LA’s runs are the direct result of a home run. In my humble opinion, that is way too high. Today’s game was a little different. They scored their first two runs on a triple. Teo then hit a 2-run homer. Pages hit solo shot to tie the game, and they won on a jam shot by Teo.

                                               I have to believe one reason for this is the loss of Freeman the last couple of weeks. Freddie’s bat is sorely missed. LA has 28 homers in 14 games. 2 homers a game average. They have given up just 8. In 2024, they hit 233, 23, 249, 22, 212, 21, 237. If they keep up this pace, they will hit 324 homers. And they are doing this in the early part of the season, before it warms up and the ball really starts to fly. One of their better power hitters, Muncy, hasn’t hit one yet. Rojas Barnes and Taylor are the only other hitters without a long ball. 

                                               Of course, I remember a team or two who couldn’t hit 100 in a season, but that was a while ago. In the pandemic season, 2020, LA clubbed 118 homers in 60 games. They hit 30 more in their run to the Championship. 16 of those came in the LCS against Atlanta. Power has been this team’s strong suit for the last several years. Now with real power threats like Ohtani, Hernandez, Muncy, Freeman and Betts, they have a chance to take pitchers deep every game. They have yet to be shut out this season, and because of the power up and down the lineup, chances are it is going to take a really dominant performance by a pitcher and his pen to accomplish that. 

                                            Betts, Ohtani, Muncy, Freeman, Teo, and Conforto have all topped 30 homers at least once in their careers. Kike, Taylor, Smith and Taylor have hit 20 or more at least once. Pages had 13 last year, Edman has hit in double figures four times with 13 being his most. Barnes high is 8, Feduccia does not have any MLB homers. Miggy hit 11 in 2018. He hit 9 in 2021. There is some power down at AAA for sure. Outman had 23 in 23, Chavis hit 18 in 2019, Ryan Ward has hit 20 or more five straight years in the minors. 

                                          While I really love it when they do hit homers, I think you can become way too reliant on your sluggers doing major damage and forget to simply try and put the ball in play. Earl Weaver’s Orioles were that way. He had some thumpers on his teams. Especially in 69-71 when the O’s won 318 games in three years. They won three straight pennants and a World Series. He had Frank Robinson and Boog Powell, Paul Blair and Brooks Robinson. It is no coincidence that after Robinson was traded to the Dodgers in the winter of 71, and replaced by Merv Rettenmund, that the O’s fell to third place. 

                                            It used to be rare for a team to have more than two or three legitimate power threats. Now many teams have four, five or even six players who can take you deep at most anytime in the game. The Dodgers did something last season in Arizona, that they had never done in their history. On August 31st, against Merrill Kelly, Ohtani, Betts and Freeman each hit homers in the first inning. It was the first time that they had the first three hitters homer in their history. The game ended up a 8-6 win for the Dodgers after the starting pitcher, Gavin Stone, gave up 4 in the bottom of the first.

                                             The Atlanta Braves in 2023 hit a major league record, 307 homers. They had five players with 30 or more homers and four of them drove in 100 or more runs. Olson led the team with 54 bombs. Even with all that power, they were knocked out, just like the Dodgers, in the LDS by the Phillies. Sometimes, you can depend on the long ball just a little too much.                            

 

MiLB GAME SUMMARIES

Two Dodger affiliates went into extra innings.  One game went 11 innings, and one went 12.  The Dodgers affiliates scored zero runs in their five innings. 

Round Rock Express (Texas) 2 – OKC Comets 1 – 11 innings

Bobby Miller started for OKC, but lasted just 2.1 innings.  He threw 55 pitches (28 strikes).  He threw 81 pitches his last outing, so I have no idea why he was pulled.  The trainer did not come out, so there is no apparent injury.  I do not have an explanation yet, but hopefully I can find an answer.

Hyeseong Kim led off for OKC and slugged his 1st HR of the season.

In the 6th, Justin Foscue got a leadoff single against Ryan Sublette and moved to 2nd on weak groundball to 2nd.  Tucker Barnhart singled to plate Foscue for the game tying run.

This game went into extra innings.  Both teams failed to score in the 10th, and OKC failed to score in the 11th

With Jose E. Hernandez on the bump in the 11th, he loaded the bases with nobody out on a WP moving the runner to 3rd and two walks.  Justin Foscue followed with a walk off single.   

I did see a legit CF in this game; Round Rock’s Sam Hagerty.  He made two sparkling diving/sliding plays to take hits away in the 7th.

 

Box Score

 

Arkansas Travelers (Seattle) 6 -Tulsa Drillers 5 – 12 innings

 Tulsa jumped out to a 3-0 lead after 1.5 innings.  In the first, Taylor Young doubled (2) and scored on an Aaron Bracho single.  In the 2nd, the Drillers put together a HBP, a single, a stolen base, and a 2-run single by Bubba Alleyne.

In the bottom of the 2nd, Jared Karros was greeted by back-to-back singles.  A double scored one and put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out.  A Josh Hood single scored the two baserunners to tie the game at 3 apiece.

Arkansas scored an unearned run in the 3rd

John Rhodes hit his 3rd HR of the season in the 6th to tie the game again.

After 4.2 IP and 82 pitches (51 strikes) Karros was lifted for 25-year-old LHRP Kelvin Bautista.  Bautista pitched 1.1 scoreless innings to get to the 7th.  Bautista walked the 1st hitter he faced in the 7th, and 30-year-old RHRP Tanner Kiest came in for relief.  Kiest gave up a single pushing the runner to 3rd.  A balk brought home the go ahead run. 

25-year-old LHRP Jorge Benitez came in to finish the 7th and 8th by striking out all 4 batters he faced. 

Ezequiel Pagan hit a game tying HR with one out in the 9th.

Benitez walked the first batter he faced in the 9th and was replaced by 24-year-old LHRP Christian Suarez.

The game went into extra innings.  OKC had their runner at 2B, Bubba Alleyne hit an infield single putting runners on 1st and 3rd with nobody out.  The next three Driller batters went down meekly without scoring a run.

Suarez retired the side in the bottom of the 10th and they head to the 11th.  The Drillers loaded the bases in the 11th but could not score.  Arkansas loaded the bases in the bottom of the 11th with one out, and Suarez struck out the next two batters.

The Drillers failed to score in the 12th.  With Brandon Neeck on the hill to start the bottom half of the 12th, Neeck proceeded to WP the runner to 3rd.  He then walked the next three batters to force in the winning run.

 

Box Score

 

Lansing Lugnuts (A’s) 4 – Great Lakes Loons 3

For the second consecutive game, the Loons had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom half of the 8th and 9th, but this time the bullpen could not hold onto the lead.  Lansing scored a pair in the 8th to take a 4-3 lead, and the Loons went down in order in the 9th to end the game.

Great Lakes had six hits from four hitters, including 3 doubles and a HR.  Logan Wagner was 2-4 with both hits being doubles (3).  Josue De Paula went 1-4 with the other double (2). 

Zyhir Hope had a 2-run HR in the first, his second of the season.  Hope also walked to reach base twice.

Jordan Thompson reached base 3 times, two on singles and once via the BB.

Brooks Auger had his 2nd outstanding start. He pitched 5.0 scoreless innings, allowing 3 hits and 4 BB.  He had 1 K.

Livan Reinoso relieved Auger and walked a tight rope for his 2.0 IP but was not scored on.  Christian Ruebeck followed Reinoso and promptly gave up a double, followed by a BB and HBP to load the bases with nobody out.  After a strikeout, Sahid Valenzuela singled home a pair to give the Lugnuts the lead, which they held on to for the win. 

 

Box Score

 

Stockton Ports (A’s) 4 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 2

23-year-old RHSP Aidan Foeller pitched in what is becoming a typical Dodger game.  He lasted 3.2 innings and threw 80 (45 strikes).  He left the game with 2 outs in the 4th, leaving two runners on via the BB.  Felix Cabrera relieved Foeller and gave up a run scoring double.  The run was scored against Foeller. 

For the night, Foeller allowed a run on just one hit.  Unfortunately, while he did strike out 8, he walked 6.

Cabrera surrendered two runs in the 5th on a walk, WP, and two singles. 

Alex Makarewich relieved Cabrera in the 7th.  He gave up a single to lead off the inning.  On a pickoff attempt, Alex threw the ball away for an error, allowing the runner to move to 2nd.  The runner scored on a single for an unearned run and a 4-2 lead.

Rancho jumped out to an early 1-0 lead.  Samuel Munoz led off with a double (2) and scored on a Jose Meza single.  Down 3-1 in the 6th, Mike Sirota got a one out double (1) and scored an unearned run from an E-6.

Jaron Elkins and Samuel Munoz both had 2 hit nights. 

We lost the Gameday feed in the bottom of the 8th.  I was able to get the game on TV, but without sound, and not a good picture.  I learned the Quakes scored three in the top of the 9th, but do not know how…yet.  

 

UPDATE:

Jose Meza drew a 1 out BB in the 9th.  Elijah Hainline followed with a 2-run HR (1) to tie the game.  Victor Rodriguez drew another BB, and with two out Eduardo Quintero hit a pop up to the catcher, and the catcher just whiffed at it.  He did not touch the ball, so it was ruled a single.  Rodriguez moved to 3rd and scored on a WP.  The Ports did not score in the bottom of the 9th, and Rancho came away with a 5-4 game.  Domingo Geronimo finished the game for the win.

 

Box Score

 

 

 

 

 

Born June 14th, 1948, in Los Angeles California. AKA The Bear

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SandyAmoros

They are Bear. I guess its live by the sword die by the sword. That said love the way Edmans plays the game just a good baseball player glad we have him. Another HR wins for us he also didnt strike out.

Cassidy

Is there any possibility Hope could play CF for us next year or is he strictly corner OF material?

Sam Oyed

From what I saw in spring training, his play in left field is suspect. So, I doubt center field is an option.

Bluto

!
in the immortal words of Mary Swanson it’s “not good… more like one out of a million”

but for the ironically baked Hope?

I’m telling him that there’s a chance!

Badger

Good one Blutovious.

Badger

Too home run dependent? I don’t believe so. Sure, I’d like to see more line drives, especially with two strikes. I’d also like to see hit and runs and bunts for hits from left handed hitters. Most of us old timers grew up playing the game differently but today’s game is played by big strong sluggers so small ball is history. It’s worked well for the Dodgers so far, right?

The top of the Dodgers lineup is doing just fine. The reason they are 11th in hits, 7th in runs and 6th in OPS is because the bottom of the order hasn’t awakened yet. They will. And here’s something else we can count on – no team in the West will continue at over a .700 pace. Both San Diego and SF are on a 124+ win pace. By Mother’s Day it will all settle down.

Jeff

Freddie is in a dire slump at the plate. He looks like a shadow of himself. And, Conforto is deep diving to the Mendoza line. We can always white wash it with Freddie will be fine, but the bottom of the order is historically shite and it’s time to pull some rabbits out.

Dionysus

Thanks for these updates. Kim put a little charge into that ball. Eager to see Sirota play and Auger looks like a breakout name. Hope is a baller and Ferris could be our #1 prospect by year’s end. I’m fine with the pathway for Rushing being a job share with Smith next season. Maybe he could play the occasional 1b or LF too.

Badger

Kim is slugging .509. 9 of his 15 hits are for extra bases. But his OBP is only .345. His K/BB is 14/4. Those numbers need improvement. The plan was to have him at 2B and Edman joining Kiké, Taylor and Rojas on a one too many Utility Bench. With Edman playing as well as he is who of those three would be considered superfluous if Kim is determined ready?

Dionysus

Edman was always going to be a starter. He was just versatile enough to be CF or 2B. Maybe Kim is on the CT3 “swing hard in case you hit it” career trajectory. (Taylor is my answer btw.)

Badger

Interesting. I had him doing what he’s done the last three years. In ‘22 he played five different positions. In ‘23 he played 4 different positions. Last year he played three. I had him playing a lot, definitely, but to be honest I was hoping Outman would win the starting CF job and Kim would be the starting 2B.

Jeff Dominique

Ferris has been my #1 since mid-year last year.

Rushing? I guess I would expect more from a #1 prospect than a job share. I also do not believe Will Smith is sharing with anyone. Just my opinion, but I do not see anyway that Rushing merits taking a couple hundred ABs from Smith. Lest we forget, Smith is an All Star catcher. Rushing is still not a good enough MLB catcher. There is a reason that both Hunter Feduccia and Chris Okey are in OKC as catchers.

Feduccia was pulled up to LAD on April 4. OKC has played 7 games since then. In those games, Rushing was the catcher 3 games while Okey was the catcher 4 games. For the year, Rushing is not catching in half the games at OKC. Rushing has started 6, Okey has started 4, and Feduccia has started 3.

Smith is 30 and an All Star. I see no reason to have him share with anyone at this point in his career. Hunter Feduccia is an ideal backup for next year. Plus, they can always find another Chris Okey. 

I like Rushing’s bat, but IMO, his best value is to trade him for THE best MLB ready CF or SS prospect in MiLB. That being said, I fully acknowledge that AF will do what he thinks is best for LAD. That just may not be what is best for the player. And to be clear, that is not a knock against AF. That is his job.

Dionysus

You make a compelling case. Busch trade 2.0?

Jeff Dominique

Exactly. I hated to see the Dodgers trade Busch, but there was no place for him. Sit him on the bench or trade for Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope, arguably the two best prospects the Dodgers have. I think AF did what was best for LAD and as it turned out what was best for Michael Busch.

Dionysus

Honestly, the presence of Shohei at DH makes Rushing’s path even more difficult.

Badger

“but IMO, his best value is to trade him for THE best MLB ready CF or SS prospect in MiLB”

Good call.

Dionysus

Winning rally started by . . . Teo. You live to see it.

Bradley

If the Dodgers do get Bo Bichette which I think they need cuz one Betts isn’t very good at shortstop one playing g shortstop I think makes him get tired out more then playing the outfield and he hits better. So they get Bichette look how that would help the team and how long do they wait to pull that trade off. Okay so you move Betss to rightfield say okay you need to focus on hitting nit fielding at shortstop. So you have Betts in rightfield and Pages isn’t that good so I say put Michael Conforto in centerfield and Teoscar plays Leftfield where he played last year so your starting outfield set with the Kike and Taylor subbing in to give the guys rests. Then you infield Freeman at first base Tommy Edman at secondbase at shortstop Bo Bichette and third base Max Mjncy and catcher Will Smith. Now the dodgerd will have the correct postion players bicherte a legit shortstop Edmond playing secondbase only question mark is Max all other batters are hitting well so far.

Dionysus

I’m not drunj, you’re drunj.

Bobby

I’ll take 2 please

Dionysus

What is wrong with Payton Martin?

Kickstart

Myself I think Mookie has been looking mighty smooth at SS recently. Getting better by the day. I predict all star SS this year and all star GG winning SS next year. Write it down.

Badger

Ok. But write it with a pencil.

Last edited 11 days ago by Badger
Jeff Dominique

And an eraser. 😍

Last edited 11 days ago by Jeff Dominique
Kickstart

I used ink while ordering a plate of crow for you naysayers.

Jeff Dominique

Very good.

Dionysus

Good UFC card and Dodger baseball tonight. Just add wine.

Cassidy

Who’s talking trash about Pages’ D! Sorry Andy. Saved Sasaki’s butt there!

Last edited 11 days ago by Cassidy
Cassidy

Wow! Total meltdown! And some guy with a 7+ era shuts down the greatest show on earth. Ugly

Jeff

An embarrassment to the organization.

OhioDodger

Feces occurs.

Jeff

That makes two great catches that I’ve seen from Pages this season.

Badger

He did look better out there, and that catch at the fence prevented it from being 19-0. But there was that 0fer in the box score. His career OPS after 450 at bats is .698. The Dodgers need him to start hitting.

Watford Dodger

Wasn’t expecting to wake up to that score line!!

Definitely the worst result that I can remember in my time following the Dodgers, although I’m sure there’s been others.

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