The closer we get to the playoffs, the more this current Dodgers’ team looks reminiscent of the 2023 playoff version.
Prior to Wednesday’s game, over their previous 8 games, Dodgers starting pitchers had thrown a total of 30 1/3 innings with a 7.71 ERA.
- Walker Buehler – 5.0 IP, 5 runs (all earned)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 4.0 IP, 1 run (unearned)
- Bobby Miller – 4.1 IP, 6 runs (all earned)
- Landon Knack – 2.0 IP, 5 runs (all earned)
- Jack Flaherty – 3.0 IP, 4 runs (all earned)
- Walker Buehler – 6.0 IP, 2 runs (1 earned)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 4.0 IP, 0 runs
- Bobby Miller – 2.0 IP, 4 runs (all earned)
That is one game at 6.0 innings, 1 game a 5.0 innings, and 6 less than 5.0 innings.
Landon Knack looking for a bounce back game after his last outing against Atlanta, and he did just that. 5.0 scoreless innings, and LAD fans can feel a little better. But with only 5.0 IP by the starter, the bullpen was taxed again. What the Dodgers saw in Zaxh Logue to give him a spot on the 26 man is a mystery.
Yes a bit better than 2023, but really how much?
What can we expect for the playoffs?
Here is the NL Playoff clanedar:
The Dodgers have no choice but to go with four starting pitchers, and none are going to remind anyone of Dylan Cease. My guess as to the four are:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Jack Flaherty
- Walker Buehler
- Landon Knack
Bobby Miller has pitched himself out of any consideration for the playoff roster. If will not start another LAD game as he was optioned on Wednesday. If I were the Dodgers, I would insist that he see a sports psychologist in the offseason. It has been widely reported that his in between starts pitching sessions are positive, and he is an extremely hard worker. His “stuff” is still regarded as very good. So what is the reason for his problems?
Justin Wrobleski is running on fumes. He pitched 0.1 inning in relief on Tuesday allowing 2 doubles and 2 runs. He is at 126.0 IP thus far in 2024. His previous career high was 102.1 IP all at Great Lakes (A+) in 2023. He was pushed (because of the injuries) in 2024, and it has had an impact on him down the stretch. A lot of stress innings in the 126.0 undoubtedly took a greater toll.
Ben Casparius? He was never a consideration for a LAD 2024 SP. He pitched all of 1.0 inning in relief for the Big League team. He has not pitched more than 4.0 innings since August 11.
Are you ready for Tony Gonsolin? He is being vetted with another AAA outing hoping he will go 4.0 innings. He is tentatively scheduled to start on Friday. It has been less than 13 months since the surgery. Rushing a bit? Are the Dodgers really that desperate to start Gonsolin in the playoffs?
If Clayton Kershaw and/or Gavin Stone somehow find their way back to the roster, I would conjecture that it would be as relievers and not starters. They will not be lengthened out enough to start.
Next best option is bullpen game.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched roughly once a week during his years in Japan, and has had at least five days rest in all 16 of his major league starts to date. The Dodgers might eventually ease him into getting used to at least occasionally starting on four days rest at some point during his 12-year contract, but that time is not now.
From Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic:
“I’m not saying it isn’t a possibility but it’s still unlikely,” Roberts said of starting Yamamoto on ‘regular’ rest (four days off) in the postseason. “With what we’ve done, we’re going to try to give him as much rest as he’s had. “When we acquired him, this is something we planned on doing.”
“This is something that when we acquired him this is something we planned on doing,” Roberts said. “It’s kind of where we’re at. We’ve got to figure out how best to keep him fresh, sharp, prepared, number one. Then number two, fill in the pieces.”
Yamamoto would need to start Game 1 in order to give him a chance to win the series in Game 5. That would be 5 day’s rest, the minimum AF/BG/Doc are going to give him. The Dodgers are going to need to map out a pitching rotation keeping the minimum rest days for Yamamoto.
Yamamoto has 2 more starts for 2024 to increase his number of pitches.
Jack Flaherty has been mostly good, but not dominant, except for his 7.1 IP against Cleveland. Unfortunately he followed that up with a forgettable start against Atlanta. Flaherty has been good, but not as good for the Dodgers as he was with Detroit.
- BB/9 – 1.6 for Detroit, 2.84 with LAD
- K/9 – 1.27 for Detroit, 1.22 with LAD
- Hits/9 – 7.00 for Detroit, 8.77 with LAD
- WHIP – 0.96 for Detroit, 1.29 with LAD
- OPS – .625 for Detroit, .714 with LAD
- ERA – 2.95 for Detroit, 3.25 with LAD
Flaherty is falling in line with the remaining long line of LAD pitchers with increase in walks.
- 2022 – 2nd best with walks
- 2023 – 4th best with walks
- 2022 – 18th best with walks
This is now a trend in the organization. Tulsa and Rancho Cucamonga led their respective leagues in walks allowed, while Great Lakes walked the second most batters. Only OKC has been relatively successful in limiting BB. Concentrating on max velo and spin and not worry about command or control. Looking at the MLB roster for LAD, how is that working?
This is also reflective in WHIP. Tulsa was 9th out of 10 teams in WHIP; Great Lakes was 6th of 12 teams; and Rancho Cucamonga was 7th out of 8.
Walker Buehler looks to be the 3rd playoff starter. Now that is a little scary. He has had a couple of decent to good starts in his last two starts. He is the only pitcher of the five to go at least 5.0 innings and he did that twice. Bullpen may prefer Buehler (???). He has been a clutch playoff pitcher in the past, and maybe he can recapture that magic.
Landon Knack seems to be the best option for the #4 playoff starter right now. Maybe #3? He showed signs of regress in his start in Atlanta, but turned it around against Miami. He has thrown 119.0 IP thus far, and his previous high was 100.1 IP, last year. Can he hold up through the playoffs?
The projected four do look to be an improvement over Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and Lance Lynn. But will they be good enough? I am still not convinced that the necessary offense will show up. They still look to be toooooo HR dependent. The increase in stolen bases, does look to be a good sign. Getting runners into scoring position is not much of an issue, but driving them home could be.
Flaherty goes on Thursday.
Only two LAD pitchers have pitched more than 100 innings, and neither one will be pitching in the playoffs: Gavin Stone (140.1 IP), and Tyler Glasnow (134.0 IP). Both were career highs achieved before September. A little difficult to expect either pitcher being fresh with 4-5 more starts in September. The third most IP? James Paxton (89.1). 5th most IP is Ryan Yarbrough with 67.1 IP.
With all of his time off, Yamamoto has 4th most IP at 82.0, and Buehler has 65 IP for 6th most. Starting pitching is sketchy, so they are going to need to “hope” their offense comes through.
Besides starting pitching, LAD has had issues with the offense. This year hitting wRISP:
Batting Average wRISP:
- Arizona #1
- San Diego #4
- Milwaukee #5
- Philadelphia #6
- NYM #10
- LAD #12
OPS wRISP:
- Arizona #1
- Milwaukee #2
- NYM #3
- LAD #10
- San Diego #11
- Philadelphia #12
LAD is going to need some of the Bluto luck in the playoffs, because they are going into the playoffs a lot weaker than they were the last two years when they were the best team in MLB. Hope for the pitching to hold up, and hope that clutch hitting will somehow find its way into the batter’s box.
Update on recovery:
I was released by the Doctor on Tuesday, but pain still exists. Not so much in the knee, but more in the lower leg. I was advised that I am experiencing “soft tissue envelope”. I am still healing, and will continue to do so through at least 4 months. I am walking, mostly with a cane, but increasing more without it every day. I still have to ice every day (9-12 times a day for 20 minutes) and will continue to do so. With an increase in rehab exercises, that does not leave a lot of time for research and writing as often as I want. The current setup seems to be working, so I think I will continue it as is through the end of the season. When we get to the playoffs, I will try to be more active.
With the state of our pitching right now,those numbers have to drastically improve or it’s annother early exit.
Julio Urias just signed a minor league deal
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2024-09-18/la-sp-julio-urias-video
That young man destroyed his career and flushed 100millions of dollars down the toilet.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link?
I agree. I do not think we can beat the Phillies or the Padres in a playoff series.
Their starting pitching is superior, both teams have very good lineups and at least just as good bullpens.
Dodgers would be underdogs vs both potential opponents.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I still believe we can beat anybody.
Just gotta score 8.
Concentrate on your rehab. Everything else is secondary.
Good luck with your rehab Jeff. Thanks for a great site—the best by far!
Another gratifying win today.
But first, the bad news: Gavin Stone’s condition has not improved sufficiently for him to return this season. At first it seemed like he should be back, then it seemed like a 50-50 proposition, and now it’s a very long shot.
And now for the good news:
Another impressive outing for Landon Knack, who must have solidified his spot in the post-season plans. With Stone apparently out, Miller struggling badly and Buehler still a bit shaky, Knack might rank 3rd in the rotation after Yamamoto and Flaherty. And Knack was probably about 9th on the rotational depth chart at the start of the season.
Knack has been underestimated and often overlooked. One reason, I suspect, is his lumpy build. He just doesn’t look the part–but neither did Bartolo Colon or several other star pitchers over the years.
Hmm. Is it possible that Knack has avoided injury because he is able to get his bulk behind his pitches while the more athletic guys are putting too much strain on their elbows? Just a thought.
More good news comes from the fact that–on a day that Shohei and Mookie and Teo did very little on offense–the rest of the lineup came up big.
Great to see another HR from Smith, who seems to have shaken his slump, plus two hits and two RBI from Taylor. Edman continues his hot hitting. And Kike hit his 10th HR, which isn’t bad for a part-time player.
Yes, all of this happened against the Marlins, but it’s nice to see the positive signs with the playoffs ahead.
Nice and much needed win last night. Dodgers really need to win that #2 playoff spot. Currently 2 game up on the Brewers. And the Dodger hold the tie breaker by winning the season series with the Brew Boys 4 to 3.
10 games to go. Dodgers need to win at least 5.
Yes, badly needed win. Winning today would give us a full 4 game lead with 9 to go. That would be huge considering we have 6 left with the Rockies. If the Padres do not sweep us it should be enough to win the West.
And the Dodgers desperately need those extra off days to give our overworked pen a break.
Sent that Logue guy right back down. Batting practice pitcher it looks like.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Best wishes for a smooth, successful rehab, Jeff! Got to be patient and do your therapy . There will be some ups and downs on the way though.
As a known blogger says: Progress is not linear and it is true not only for baseball prospects but also rehab and life in general.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the update Jeff. Hope the rehab continues to go well.
Those stats on our SP look rather bleak. We won’t be favored in any post season match-up, but that’s why they play the game. I’m hopeful this post season is a replay of the 1988 post season. From underdogs to World Champs. Maybe Bob Costas will make a snarky comment about the state of our SP that will motivate them to post season greatness.
Remember guys like Jeff Hamilton, Alfredo Griffin, Franklin Stubbs, John Shelby, Tim Belcher, Brian Holton, Rick Dempsey, Tracy Woodson, Micky Hatcher, and Mike Sharperson who came through to beat the Mets in the NLCS and A’s in the WS.
“We won’t be favored in any post season match-up”
What?!?!
Starting pitching is a requirement to be favored in a postseason match-up Bluto.
100% agree…..Bluto will learn this lesson soon, seeing he hasn’t learned it to date.
LOL.
we will see, and very shortly.
Great write up about the state of our pitching coming down the stretch.
Glad to hear you are making progress in your rehab/recovery Jeff. Hang in there.
Thanks for the clarification on my post yesterday, DodgerRick.
I didn’t know we can’t have more than 13 pitchers on the team come October. There goes my brilliant idea !
What a ray of sunshine
Best of luck on your recovery, Jeff…
Just noticed the report that Jon Duplantier struck out 12 batters in 6 perfect innings for OKC.
He has had some success at the ML level, and I was pleased that he had latched on to the Dodgers. With the pitching situation still unsettled, I wonder if Duplantier will get summoned.
I’m pretty sure he’d be better than Zach Logue…
“Throughout the game today I didn’t feel convicted about the zone I wanted to swing at, that’s something I’m going to work on”. Ohtani, LA Times this morning.
Here’s a thought Shohei, try swinging at balls within the strike zone.
At the present time there is no NL playoff bound team that is on fire. The hottest, Phillies, Brewers, Padres are all 6-4. Brewers, Pads and Dodgers with W1. Phillies lost yesterday. That could flip either way over the next week of course So, why not us? Are we gonna let starting pitching keep us from a W7 streak at the end of the year?
Yeah. Probably.
But I still believe. I have to. There’s enough to be down about without brooding over the Dodgers. There’s the Rams. The Lakers. Fire season. Hurricane season. Other things too. The Dodgers are in first place and have been all year. That’s a good thing. Am I right?
Good to see you again Jeff. I figured after my last email you were busy digging into a new post on why we old guys should embrace analytics. I’m sorry to hear your rehab is going slower than expected. But it might be helpful to know the spiritual leaders in the East believe pain is good because it pays off karma. Probably not helpful huh. Anyway, I hope you’re better soon. It’s always uplifting for me to see your byline.
I think the analytics post is coming in the offseason.
Dylan Floro was released by Arizona. Kimbrel was DFAd by the Orioles.
Nice job by Knack. He did exactly what was needed. He went out, threw strikes, relied on his fastball, didn’t fall in love with his change which wasn’t very good. When your team is scoring runs in bunches, throw strikes and don’t try to trick anybody. Just pitch.
Orel had a couple of weird comments. He and Davis got into a discussion as to who’s better and has a leg up in the playoffs between Knack and Buehler?
Don’t we need both behind Flaherty and Yamamoto, at this point? Who cares who’s doing better? All hands on deck.
Orel also made the most arrogant comment I’ve ever heard about the Dodgers. To paraphrase, he basically said that other teams will always pick up pitchers who have been a Dodger, even off the scrap heap, because if the Dodgers saw something in them at some point so they must be good. Even if that was true, why would you say that? Check the success rate of Dodger pitchers the last couple of seasons. We don’t have the market cornered with pitching success, Orel.
Good on Pages nailing a dead duck runner at third after Will chucked on into center. We all shutter when he’s in center and he did have an interesting catch, but that was a nice throw.
I think they are in the assumption that Kershaw will pitch in the playoff and be the 3rd starter. My greatest fear is this year be another 2nd inning implosion and then Roberts bring Landon in an almost lost situation, rendering all efforts by Knack insignificant.
Knack did what the Dodgers needed last night. 6 innings would have been nice but u can hardly complain considering what we are used to. Right now we are able to have 14 pitchers so that helps. In the playoffs we will be back to 13. The whole staff needs to stay away from the hr ball.
on the plus side
i am surprised by the power that Edman is showing. Rojas continues to be excellent. Treinen looks better now than most of the year. Muncy is productive. Hopefully no pinch hitting for him. Buehler trending up. If he could conquer the one bad inning.big game for flaherty today. Taylor with clutch hit n k Hernandez. I believe Yamamoto, flaherty , buehler/kershaw/ knack can matchup with other teams. With kopech, Phillips, Graterol, treinen, Vesia we have the bullpen pieces if rested. We just need to finish second for the bye. If we play San Diego with a 3 game lead or less we will be biting our fingernails.
I bet Edman is surprised by the power Edman is showing.
Defensively, Pages is certainly an adventure in the OF, principally CF. He has always been rated with a plus arm, so it was good to see him showing off that arm.
Pages is not a CF. However, there are no free agent CF out there worthy, and because of the scarcity of quality CF, it is highly doubtful that LAD can trade for one. What contender would consider trading their CF. I recognize that Luis Robert Jr. could be available, but many teams looking to upgrade CF can put together better packages. Remember AF wants to win trades.
However, the Dodgers could have a CF in their system. After the birth of James and Dasha Outman’s first child, there has been a different James Outman. Who knows what issues are prominent in players minds? Was James focus impacted by the pending birth? Were there issues with the pregnancy? We have no idea why James went from #3 ROY to maybe the worst hitter in MLB. Outman returned to OKC on 08/31. For the month of September in 59 AB/65 PA, James is hitting .339/.400/.678/1.078, with 5 HRs and 15 RBI. He has 6 BB and 13 K (20%).
Here are couple of bombs by James with that short compact swing that was so prevalent last year when things were going well. I would not be against LAD giving him another shot. We can visit what the Dodgers will look at in the offseason once the season is complete and we can dig into an autopsy of the 2024 season.
I know we’re not supposed to rate our favorites based on player attitude but I’m a big Outman fan based on that. He just puts his head down and goes out there, no matter if he’s hitting .300 or .200. I really hope they give him another chance and this time he sticks. And he sure as hell is a better centerfielder than Pages, who seems decent enough in the corners.
Of course, depending on what they do for a shortstop next year, they might also have Edman to play center.
CF or SS. That is the question that AF is going to need to address in the offseason, and we will not learn where AF leans until then. I would expect Edman to start at SS or CF depending on who AF acquires in the offseason. I would not be surprised if they lean to Edman at SS and Outman in CF and concentrate on pitching. What will their budget look like?
Excuse me, but have you forgotten Miguel Rojas? I hope not. There is no reason why he can’t play another 120-130 games at SS next year.
I have not forgotten Rojas. I still think the Dodgers prefer Rojas as the utility infielder playing SS, 2B, #3B. It is also possible that the Dodgers prefer an Edman/Outman platoon in CF and Edman/Rojas platoon at SS. The Dodgers prefer the versatility for a reason. Rojas fits in perfectly in that scenario as does Edman. BTW I have been on the Miggy Ro train for over a year. Ask Scott.
Oh yes Jeff loves him some Miggy Ro. I like him now too. He’s a solid player, and a good guy.
I guess Edman can play a little SS as well.
You guys that are dissing Bluto have no idea what you’re talking about.
Of course we will be favoured to win whoever we come up against, we are the overall favourites to win the whole thing. It is only you guys on here that don’t believe we will prevail (and others obviously) but the people who make the “Books” on Baseball, and have knowledge and experience of these things, believe the Dodgers have the best chance of winning it all, and therefore will be favoured to win their match ups.
You guys might well be right, but the Dodgers won’t be underdogs as things stand currently.
Starting pitching rules the post season. The Phillies, Padres and possibly the D-Backs and Brewers might have better pitching than the Dodgers. Still have to play the games and we might win some 11-10 ball games but our SP doesn’t look formidable compared to others.
Irrelevant to the silly point made.
Next year max Fried Shohi Ohtano Jack Flarethy Yosi Yamamoto Gonselin and Gavin Stone will be your starting six and we will be in way better shape for a world series run with that rotaion. And get a closer in off season with Gratehol and Kopech the setup guys for the closer do they us Phillips as trade bait
Wow! A young pitcher with even less command than Miller
Dumb just dumb
Max Fried a young pitcher he has pitched in post season and world series for the Braves so how is that a dumb idea and he is from LA. Just like Flarethy.
Woo-Hoo!! 50-50!!
Incredible! He was also was an outfield bobble / offline throw from hitting for the cycle.. and his first double missed being a home run by about two feet.
I don’t even know what to say
Glad that is out of the way. now just keep winning. As long as they do that. it does not matter what the other teams do.
Just no words for Ohtanis amazing feat today. To exceed 50-50 just phenomenal. I like Bear get frustrated with his strikeouts and failure to hit wrisp. But today, just no words to describe him that haven’t already been said.i always feel like the expectations are so high for him but days like today he exceeds even that. Why can’t he just get hot in the playoffs and play over his head for a month. Many players have done that. What if the lineup gets hot all at one time for 11 victories. Colorado got red hot one year n won like 22/23 or something like that. Flaherty, Yamamoto, buehler could pitch over their head. There is always somebody who plays over their head in the playoffs. The Dodgers have many guys who could do it. The Dodgers could be that team!!! Everyone pitching and hitting at their peak would blow the field away. That would be so much fun!!!!
Adames at short Edman in CF, with miggy platooning at second, or trading Lux and giving 2b to miggy full time is ok with me too.
Wha-Hoo!!
I missed the game some of still work, you bunch of old coots. I guess I better watch the spectrum rerun later tonight it sounds like it was a heck of a game
It was amazing. Enjoy.
I missed it also but am watching it now.