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Dodger Baseball

Do Statistics Always Tell the Story

Many have been commenting about how LAD is playing and commenting as to what might be wrong with the current team over THE FIRST 20 GAMES OF THE SEASON.  The Dodgers are 14-6 over those 20 games for a .700 W-L percentage.  Third best record in MLB, but also 3rd best record in NL West.  As it currently stands, the NL West has the four teams with the best records in MLB.

During the AF era, the current start has matched 2021 with the best start of any LAD team.

  • 2024 – 12-8, 1st place by 1.0 game, Final record 98-64
  • 2023 – 10-10, 3rd place , 1.0 GB, Final record 100-62
  • 2022 – 13-7, 2nd place, 0.5 GB, Final record 111-51
  • 2021 – 14-6, 1st place by 1.0 game, Final record 106-56
  • 2020 – 13-7, 1st place tied, Final record 43-17
  • 2019 – 12-8, 1st place by 0.5 game, Final record 106-56
  • 2018 – 10-10, 3rd place, 4.5 GB, Final record 92-71
  • 2017 – 9-11, 3rd place, 5.0 GB, Final record 104-58
  • 2016 – 12-8, 1st place by 1.5 game, Final record 91-71
  • 2015 – 12-8, 1st place by 1.0 game, Final record 92-70

There is no way anyone can expect Shohei to match his 2024 numbers, so there necessarily has to be a regression.  Shohei’s 2025 numbers are diminished with his first 20 games in 2024.

  • 2024 – .341/.385/.634/1.019, 4 HR, 3 SB
  • 2025 – .288/.380/.550/.930, 6 HR, 5 SB

Mookie’s 2025 hitting has regressed from his first 20 games in 2024:

  • 2024 – .388/.490/.700/1.190. 6 HR, 3 SB
  • 2025 – .266/.373/.484/.858, 4 HR, 2 SB

We know Max Muncy has regressed thus far in 2025 from 2024.

Max’s career slash line – .227/.351/.471/.822 vs 2025 slash line .193/.309/.263/.572.  There are some encouraging signs that Max has displayed recently.  While he still does not have a single HR, he is showing much more patience at the plate.  He has 6 BB vs 3 K in his last 4 games.  His slash line over those 4 games (16 PA) – .250/.563/.250/.813.  He has reached 1B on 9 of his 16 PA. He came very close to slugging his first HR on Wednesday.  Yes it is a small sample size, but then again so is his 2025 season in total.  We need to let it play out before we start calling for Alex Freeland to take his place now.

Of course, Will Smith has improved upon his 2024 start.  Then again, his 2024 start was also quite good.  I am comparing Smith’s first 16 games stats, since that is all he has played in LAD’s first 20 games.

  • 2024 – .371/.412/.484/.896 – 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K
  • 2025 – .367/.475/.551/1.026 – 2 HR, 10 BB, 14 K

So, Smith has made up for some of the regression for Shohei, Mookie, and Max.

Outman (2024) vs Pages (2025) is really a wash offensively, but not close defensively.

  • Outman – .190/.288/.328/.615 – 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K
  • Pages – .175/.299/.298/.597 – 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K

Difference here is that Outman really started to go south from here, while Pages is showing some signs of life.  Defensively?  Still no contest.

Teoscar Hernández has slightly regressed from 2024.

  • 2024 – .286/.337/.332/.870 – 5 HR, 6 BB, 27 K
  • 2025 – .265/.292/.529/.821 – 5 HR, 3 BB, 15 K

One major improvement is Tommy Edman (2025) vs Gavin Lux (2024):

  • 2025 Edman – .263/.305/.553/.858 – 6 HR, 3 BB, 12 K
  • 2024 Lux – .167/.236/.182/.418 – 0 HR, 6 BB, 16 K

Lest we forget, Freddie has only played in the first 9 games of the season, and he is playing on a bad wheel.  Freddie has proven that he can play at an elite level with a broken-down body.  Just ask NYY.

With all of the offensive regression indicated above, the Dodgers are still 14-6.  While none of the 4 NL West teams will continue at their current pace, IMO the Dodgers are more likely to stay closer to their fast start compared to either San Diego or San Francisco.

I believe that the Dodgers’ offensive numbers will get better as the season builds.  I still believe they are a 100+ win team, and I do not believe any other team in the NL West is.  Then again I never saw SF and their 107 wins in 2021.

Below I have included offensive and pitching comps of 2025 to date and 2024.  After 20 games, do they mean anything, really?  Make of them what you will.  For me, it does seem to indicate how dependent they are on the HR thus far. I will periodically update these throughout the year.

 

 

 

 

I have added below runs per game and hits per game ranking for 2025 and 2024.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/hits-per-game

 

MiLB GAME SUMMARIES

 

Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle) 5 – OKC Comets 4

Tacoma scored a run in the 9th to break a 4-4 tie for the win.

Alec Gamboa was summoned back to being a starter for this one.  He was excellent for 3.2 IP.  He issued one walk until he got the first two outs in the 4th.  He then issued 2 walks and a 2-run scoring double, the only hit Gamboa allowed.

That erased a 1-0 OKC lead.  Esteury Ruiz doubled in the 3rd, stole 2nd, and scored on the catcher’s throwing error.

With Sam Carlson on the bump, Tacoma increased the lead to 3-1 in the 5th.  Three consecutive singles scored a run.

OKC tied the game in the 6thDalton Rushing led off with a single.  Michael Chavis followed with a run-scoring double.  James Outman singled home Chavis to tie the game at 3-3.

Tacoma scored a run in the top of the 8thKody Hoese tied the game in the bottom of the 8th with his 1st HR of the season.

Logan Boyer entered to pitch the 9th.  A one out single, walk, and run scoring single gave the Rainiers a 5-4 lead and eventual win.

Alex Freeland was the only Comet with a multi-hit game.

  • Alex Freeland – 2-5, double (9)
  • Doubles – Esteury Ruiz (3), Michael Chavis (3)

 

Box Score

 

Tulsa Drillers 5 – Wichita Wind Surge (Minnesota) 3

Jose Rodriguez acted as the opener in what turned out to be a bullpen game.  He completed 2.0 scoreless innings.

Wichita kept the Drillers off the board until the 4thGriffin Lockwood-Powell stroked a 1 out single and scored on an Aaron Bracho 2-run HR (2).

Tulsa scored a pair in the 5th.  With one out, Chris Newell reached 2nd on a fielding error.  He moved to 3rd on a WP and scored on Ezequiel Pagan’s single.  Pagan stole 2nd and scored on Damon Kieth’s single.

Roque Gutierrez was outstanding for three innings (3rd – 5th).  In the 6th, he allowed a BB, a batter reached on a fielding error, and Kyler Fedko hit a 3-run HR.  With 2 outs, 24 year old RHP, Kelvin Ramirez, entered to retire the side.

In the 7th, Taylor Young singled and steals 2nd.  He moved to 3rd on the catcher’s throwing error.  Young scored on a fielder’s choice.

Ramirez pitched a scoreless 8th and Lucas Wepf followed with a scoreless 9th to register his 1st save.

Aaron Bracho was the only Driller with a multi-hit game and one with a XBH.

  • Aaron Bracho – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (2)

Jared Karros gets the nod for Friday’s game.

 

Box Score

 

Dayton Dragons (Reds) 9 – Great Lakes Loons 2

In what was anything but a pitching masterpiece.  In a game when the two teams scored a combined 11 runs on a combined 11 hits, the two teams also combined to issue 22 walks, and register 29 K, 15 by Great Lakes.  GL also issued 12 of the 22 walks.

Jackson Nicklaus notched his first Loons hit and first two RBI’s with an RBI double to right field in the second and a walk with the bases loaded in the seventh. Great Lakes offensively would go 1-for-13 with RISP and 0-for-5 with the bases loaded.

Patrick Copen started for the Loons and struck out seven. The right-hander has struck out 21 over 10.1 innings. Two defensive errors on the pitcher cost him his three runs. Two of his three walks and both errors occurred in the third inning.

Jesus Luna issued 4 BB in the 5th for a run.

Following Copen, nine walks were spread across five relievers. Joseilyn Gonzalez struck out four over his 2.1 innings.

Reynaldo Yean gave up 5 runs in the 9th (.1 inning) to break the game open.

Two RBI doubles, an RBI single, two walks, and hit batsmen gained five runs.

Zyhir Hope walked twice, extending his on-base streak to 12 games.

  • Logan Wagner – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run
  • Jackson Nicklaus – 1-4, 1 BB, 2 RBI, double (1)

 

Box Score

 

 

San Jose Giants (SF) 13 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 6

Rancho lost at home for the first time on Thursday.

The Quakes got on the board in the first inning.  Eduardo Quintero walked, stole 2nd, and scored on a Mike Sirota triple (1).  Sirota scored on a Jose Meza single for a 2-0 lead.  Then everything fell apart.

The Giants scored 8 unanswered runs.  Aidan Foeller allowed 6 runs (5 earned) in 4.1 IP.  He allowed 7 hits and 2 BB to go with 7 Ks.

Giants’ first baseman Jakob Christian hit a tie-breaking three-run homer off Aidan Foeller  in the fifth, and finished the game with a career high six RBIs, helping the Giants to their first road win of the year and handing Rancho their first home loss in six games.

Trailing 8-2 in the seventh, the Quakes tallied four runs and got right back in the game.  Gio Cueto drew a BB, Raynerd Ortega singled, and Kellon Lindsey walked to load the bases. Mike Sirota doubled home Cueto and Ortega.  Jose Meza singled to plate both Lindsey and Sirota, as the Quakes made it an 8-6 game. Rancho left the bases-loaded though and then saw San Jose post five runs in the eighth to put it away against the Rancho bullpen.

On Friday, Rancho will throw Sean Paul Linan in the 4th game of the series.

  • Mike Sirota – 2-5, 2 runs, 3 RBI, double (5), triple (1)
  • Jose Meza – 2-5, 3 RBI
  • Elijah Hainline – 1-3, 1 BB, double (4)

 

Box Score

 

 

 

 

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Cassidy

I’ll take 14-6 for a team not even firing on all cylinders. Our depth is the real game changer over 162. The Giants are playing way beyond their weight class and will soon nosedive. The Pads don’t have enough depth to continue on this pace. They rely too heavily on Tatis and Machado. I think the DBacks are legit but still finish 10 games back in regular season. Come October we just need to be healthy for a legit chance to repeat.

Last edited 21 hours ago by Cassidy
Badger

I’m assuming the league leading run scoring team, the Yankees, are still using the torpedo bats?

150 plate appearances seems like a lot to me, but Roberts knows what he’s doing so 150 it is. If Pages plays every day that’s about 25 more games. He finished strong last year, OPS’n close to .900 in August and September so who knows, maybe he earns CF by June.

I trust Ohtani but I still think I’d flip he and Betts in the order. I also think it’s possible Ohtani is putting a lot of his attention towards pitching soon.

I agree the Dodgers are the team most likely to play .700 ball all season. I’m not as sold on depth as some, but I am sold on this starting lineup. At this point I can only hope the starting staff of 4 stays healthy all year. They’ve already lost 1, the remaining 4 plus Ohtani and Kershaw looks like a solid starting 6, but…. yeah, but. Gulp.

Duke Not Snider

There are probably “torpedo bats” with every team now. The Yankees seem to have been the earliest in identifying which particular batters would benefit the most. One shape does not fit all.
Edman and Yamamoto were fantastic today against a strong Rangers team.
I think the team’s weak spot is defense, especially when Pages is manning center. Mookie has exceeded expectations at SS.
I expect Kim to get called up first…. but Freeland is playing great. Could he be considered instead?

Bobby

Has anyone watched Mike Sirota play? I’ve only seen the stats, which look great, but I’d love to know how he actually looks in games.

Badger

I have only seen videos like the ones above. They put him A ball. Needs development but could be a 20-20 centerfielder.

Dionysus

I’ve just seen what others have. We evidently scouted him originally so obviously liked him. Good bloodlines and seems athletic and well-rounded, a prime candidate for our development system. A CF with no time frame to rush him, he could move slowly but gradually improve his skills. Bat-to-ball already among his best. Excited to add him. Might not have the crazy high ceiling of Hope/De Paula but looks like a future major leaguer.

Dionysus

Good plate discipline too as part of total package

Bobby

Love it.

Michael Norris

Zach Pop, part of the Machado trade, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners. deGrom against Yamamoto tonight in Texas. Should be a good game.

Dionysus

Will this be the night Yamamoto goes 7?

Michael Norris

He might, deGrom has not pitched well so far, uncharacteristic for him. Mike Clevinger outrighted off of the White Sox, he has enough service time to reject the assignment.

Bumsrap

For some reason pitchers throw a lot of balls way out of the strike zone to Max

Bumsrap

True but he was also getting easy walks out of them to boost his obp.

Dionysus

Going into the offseason and deciding to roll with Mookie at SS:

1. Edman in CF; Lux at 2B

After signing Kim & trading Lux:

2. Edman in CF; Kim at 2B

After seeing Kim’s swing against MLBP:

3. Edman at 2B; Pages/Outman in CF

After seeing Outman in ST:

4. Edman at 2B; Pages in CF

After 20 games, Pages has finally shown some signs of offensive life, but the defense still seems inadequate. Kim, Freeland both making noise in AAA.

5. ?

Badger

Kim at 2B, Pages to Chicago.

(and as you already know, I would put Kim at short)

Dionysus

Yeah, wonder what happens when Mookie to 2B becomes best for Dodgers. Next year with Freeland at SS?

Bumsrap

I’m not sold on Kim’s bat yet. Keeping Mookie in the infield surprisingly wound up being shortstop. Third base isn’t more surprising that him being the shortstop a few years ago.

Michael Norris

His arm won’t play as a third baseman. If Mookie moves again, it will be to second when they have an MLB caliber SS.

Make Mine Blue

What sucks is knowing that you have an All-Start OF spending his time at SS, especially when you definitely have a need in the OF. If Mookie really wanted to be all about the team he would suggest he goes back into the OF: LF Conforto, CF Mookie, RF Hernandez, would solve some defensive problems for sure. Then start reconstructing the IF: 1B Freddie, 2B Edmunds, SS Rojas/Taylor/Kike, 3B Hell I don’t know what to do there, probably platoon and possibly give a kid a chance to come up and prove himself. A trade might be necessary at trade deadline to get a 3B however.

Yeah, we have a good record, but what is trending is not looking too promising. If WS is really the goal then changes have to be made to win the ultimate prize, sitting on their hands with the current lineup is not going to get it done ultimately.

Last edited 14 hours ago by Michael Norris
Michael Norris

Mookie has played 223 games as a CF and has done pretty well out there. But you are assuming that he is being selfish and not moving to where he is needed the most. 20 games in? Sorry, Mookie is playing where the team wants him to play. He went back to RF last season because they had Rojas who was playing well enough to play every day. Such is not the case right now. Mookie is still gaining strength from his battle with his stomach virus, and he is playing good defense at SS. So why would you move him at this point in the season? Makes little sense. I am sure at some point in the year; decisions will be made. As fans, we do not know the entire story.

Bluto

Presuming that moving Betts to the OF would be “all about the team” is quite the statement.

I think the point of this article is that things are looking promising. The team has the 2nd best record in MLB and nobody outside of Will Smith is performing.

Make Mine Blue

Okay, how do you know anything about what is going on behind the scenes, you don’t so you speculate just as I speculate. You do not have any special inside track on anyone’s mindset. I have a take and I stated it, you have a take to put down my take, very myopic and stifling. Get over yourself and allow a free and open discussion. I didn’t put anyone down or insult anyone, I thought that is what you championed but I guess not Oh Lord.

Scott Andes

I prefer Mookie in right field, and Edman in center, but that’s just me. Regardless, the Dodgers are going to be ok.

Bumsrap

I don’t know what his scouting grades said about his arm strength but I am aware that he played right field and had a strong and accurate arm. Not saying he can throw with Pages from RF but strong enough to earn a few Gold Gloves.

As a right fielder, he threw from the top and did not use a side arm throw. He would use his right field arm angle to throw from third. I don’t know if he would be a good third baseman and I suspect you don’t know if he wouldn’t.

I like that he would bring a good bat to third plus much better speed than the typical third baseman. I realize it might be best to give Mookie an off season and spring training before moving to third and let Freeland play third. Then switch next year.

Get younger now while Mookie, Freeman, Ohtani, and Teo and Smith can carry most of the offense.

Badger

Over the top. Good point. If he would do that from short it would cut down on his errors.

Michael Norris

No, I do not know if he would be proficient at third, but the ball hit at a third baseman takes a very good reaction time. Would Mookie enjoy having missiles hit his way? Who knows, but there is a good chance he would not. He has never played there before, and he would have to spend an entire spring training getting used to the position before anyone could expect him to be anywhere close to proficient. As for getting younger, doubtful it will happen during the season, especially one in which they are trying to repeat as champions. Freeland has proved he is a good player at AAA. He will get his shot next spring.

Bumsrap

My crystal ball doesn’t agree with your crystal ball Bear. I wouldn’t assume it is more accurate than yours though. This is what mine says:

Freeland will play for the Dodgers this year!

There is a good chance Mookie would love fielding rockets at third. I mostly played short and second and it surprised me that I loved fielding missiles at third when I got older.

Mookie could start taking ground balls at third and while not the best way to make a change of positions, he would be proficient at third this year.

The Dodgers will find one or more positions to get younger this year if their young players excel and their older players flail. That is how a team wins championships. Staying with over-the-hill players is not what the Dodgers will do.

Last edited 9 hours ago by Bumsrap
Duke Not Snider

My crystal ball says Freeland’s best hope for a promotion this season would be something we wouldn’t want to see, such as an injury to Mookie, Edman or Max.
In a pure meritocracy, Freeland may well seem more deserving than Kim–but the brain trust has invested in Kim and is more determined that he succeed sooner and not later.
With Mookie occupying SS and Rojas and Edman as backups, Freeland will have more time to polish his game in OKC. Putting Kim at 2B and Edman at CF (in place of Pages) instantly upgrades the defense.
Mookie has been been playing well at SS and seems locked in for this season. If he’s still at SS in ’26, Freeland might be able to bump Max off 3B, or take on a UT role. (But let’s salute Max for two stellar plays today: diving to his left and getting the force at 2B, and later ranging to the foul line to start the game-ending double play. Web gems, both of them.)
The ’25 Dodgers are a very veteran team, but next spring we could see Freeland, Kim and Rushing replace Rojas, Taylor and Barnes. And maybe one of the prodigal OF prospects could break through as well.

Last edited 50 minutes ago by Duke Not Snider
Badger

“Many studies about fan costs use the average price of a resale ticket, but a study released this month used the cheapest ticket price on official sale sites, as sampled on a variety of dates this season.

The estimated price for a family of four to see a game at Dodger Stadium this season — four of those cheap tickets, parking, four hot dogs, two beers and two sodas — was a league-high $399.68. The league average, according to that study: $208”

Yoiks.

Michael Norris

Explains exactly why, besides the fact that I live in Colorado, that I haven’t attended a game at Dodger Stadium since 2021. I could sit in the rockpile at Coors for 14.00$. Their most expensive seats are the lower infield box seats which go for 172.00$ a game.

Dionysus

They tried to charge me $70 a ticket processing fee for a random game and four so-so seats. I declined.

Michael Norris

Do not blame you for that.

Michael Norris

Noah Davis called up to replace Miller, Eddie Rosario recalled replacing Shohei who is going on the maternity list. Henriquez moved to 60-day IL to open a spot for Rosario.

Dionysus

Whatever happened with Ferris? Nothing?

Duke Not Snider

I’m now hoping for a Ferris v. Buehler duel down the road…

Duke Not Snider

I had no idea Shohei was pregnant!

Michael Norris

Joc is the DH for Texas tonight; he is off to a horrible start batting just .060. Seager in the 2 hole is hitting .306 with 4 homers. Semien is hitting just .134. Dodger lineup not posted yet.

Badger

Lay off the donuts Joc.

Bumsrap

Texas barbeque apparently is hard to resist.

Bobby

I still think KC bbque was the best I’ve ever had in America

Dionysus

Memphis for me

Bumsrap

I liked KC coleslaw

Badger

His body doesn’t look like too much barbecue.

Bobby

This home plate umpire has been horrible all night long

Michael Norris

Got that right, but they score 2 in the top of the 9th, little breathing room.

OhioDodger

Nothing new. ABS can’t get here soon enough.

Bobby

Give Max Muncy that save!!

Norcaldodgerfan

Excellent pitched game by Yamamoto. Where is Tanner Scott’s swing and miss stuff?

Against Shohei last year he had him tied up in knots, this year he looks very hittable and not overly dominant.

Great defense by Max Muncy to get him the save and Yoshi the shutout win.

Dionysus

Scott is just fine.

People get mad at us spending money.

Yates& Scott were our ultimate flexes.

Michael Norris

Muncy with two very good plays in the 9th, one helps end the game. Max’s bat looks better too. How about Tommy Edman? NL leader in homers. Padres down 6-4 in the 9th at Houston with one out. Angels on top of the Giants 2-0 in the 9th. Astros beat the Padres for their 9th win, they have lost 10, Padres now 15-5. LA 1/2 game back.

Last edited 6 hours ago by Michael Norris
Dionysus

Good stuff

OhioDodger

We won’t hear much about that. Only when he doesn’t hit or makes an error.

Duke Not Snider

Loved Max’s defense. Stellar.

Michael Norris

Kim 0-4 tonight, BA down to .253, OPS .810. Chavis, Outman, Ward 2, and Hoese with the hits for the Comets. They are up 4-3 going into the 9th.

Duke Not Snider

So far Edman is the Dodgers’ MVP.
So versatile he can replace Shohei at the top of the order and blast one out.

OhioDodger

Yamma-Daba-Doo!!

Singing the Blue

Name to watch at Rancho: Sean Linan, 20 year old pitcher from Colombia.
We’ve spoken briefly about him before.
He started tonight and went 5.2 innings.

Total stats in 3 starts this season:
15.2 innings pitched
29 strike outs!
3 walks
6 hits
2 runs
0.59 WHIP

Dionysus

You love to see it.

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