Dodger Hitters: The Numbers

Good stuff Bear, as usual. I agree that Freddie is our best “pure” hitter. I love his approach and use of the whole ballpark.

The other day Badger had a list of suggestions for pitchers to address injuries “Grips, off speed, command, strength and conditioning, added recovery time, less work load. You can still throw 98, but only on occasion and make sure it at least flirts with the strike zone.” Great list and i agree with everything except “less workload”.

I think we can all agree that arm injuries are a crisis. 37% of active major-league pitchers have had Tommy John surgery, and that doesn’t include a variety of other arm- and shoulder-related ailments. While the percentage is in part a testament to the advancement of surgical procedures and rehab programs, the alarming figure speaks to the increased stress on pitchers.
This is bad for the game. And in some ways it’s abuse of a player. Pitchers are encouraged to throw as hard as they can, for as long as they can. When they blow out it’s next the man up and the game moves on. While that kid’s future is sacrificed.

The process isn’t sustainable. The Dodgers and other teams are spending time and resources exploring what can be done. A change in pitching philosophy will be hard, change is hard. And change in routines in baseball is especially hard.

I have some ideas. Some are better then others but I’m tossing out ideas to consider.:
As medical science and procedures improve, it’s easy to just go about business as usual. When an elbow blows up they can come up with improved procedures. Maybe insert a steel cable or bracing procedure. Fix em up and send them back to the front.  
This doesn’t involve any change of philosophy or reduction of maximum velocity and spin. The scouts and coaches don’t need to adjust their thinking.

The gap between a pitcher’s maximum four-seam fastball velocity and his median is shrinking. Pitchers appear to be going all out more often and leaving a smaller variance in their range of pitch speeds.
Changing the emphasis from maxing out on every pitch would be a major deviation from the norm in today’s game. As the game has evolved from pitchers pacing their effort to pitch 9 innings, the standard for a quality start is 4 or 5 innings. Two times through the order. 
Is there really a desire to change that? Do the analytical guys really think it’s a good idea to extend starters to pitch deeper into games. That’s another organizational philosophy change.
The emphasis on scouting has been to find young talent that throws hard. What’s the first thing you see behind the backstop when scouts gather at a game? Radar guns.  
When you listen to scouts describe a young pitching prospect, the first information after the kid’s name is “92-94”, or some numbers that start with a 9, meaning velocity numbers. First thing.
  
Danny Litwhiler is generally credited with adapting the modern radar guns to baseball. Litwhiler was the coach at Michigan State in 1973, and when he saw campus police using radar to time speeding cars, he quickly understood that the devices might be applied to baseball. Litwhiler saw it mostly as a teaching tool, one that would allow his pitchers to measure the velocity difference between their fastballs and changeups. Litwhiler understood almost immediately that the radar gun could be revolutionary. He wrote to MLB Commissioner Bowie Kuhn in hopes of alerting all major league teams, and he traveled to spring training in 1975 to show it off to big league managers, coaches and executives.  
Some veteran scouts moan about the tendency to classify pitchers simply by how hard they throw, but every team requires scouts to list velocity on every report.
I ran the bullpen for some scout’s try-out camps in the 2000’s and I was told to select only pitchers who threw 90+. 89 and less, there was no interest.

So, I don’t think this will EVER change. Velocity and spin will still be king. That won’t change. I see no interest in some device or brace that reduces velocity, strapped to a pitcher. Kind of a “restrictor plate” in NASCAR to limit speed.  
What needs to change is how pitchers are taught and what’s expected. Learning to conserve effort and leaving something in the tank becomes the focus again. How to get hitters out with stuff is a major departure from what is now emphasized. And again, do teams want to change that and have pitchers conserve energy to go deeper into games? Is there value in having pitchers learn this art of pitching to have them go 5 innings?
These are the questions that have to be addressed by every organization and disseminated throughout the personnel of the entire organization.
That’s a huge task.

Along the way, I have some other possible changes for pitcher’s health and performance:

• Stop babying MiLB pitchers. Teach the art of pitching and changing speeds with the goal of increasing innings and pitch counts in the minor leagues. Top prospects don’t pitch enough in the minors to get ready for the demands of MLB. Maybe it’s due to fear of arm injury. Teams save the kids to break down when they get to the Show.
• River Ryan is an example. River signed at 23 and had 3 season in MiLB. He pitched 176.1 innings in 49 games. That’s 3.6 innings per outing and 16 games per season. He came up this season and was 1&0 in 4 starts. He averaged 73 pitches in his 4 starts. His longest outing was 5.2 innings. And his elbow blew up after 20.1 MLB innings. Is that just bad luck? I contend he wasn’t adequately prepared in MiLB.
• I’m in favor of considering a 6 man rotation on a permanent basis. It’s been suggestions but never implemented. Some old Aces might protest but work that out.  
• During the 5 days between starts there is an emphasis on throwing more but pitching less. And more emphasis on physical fitness and stretching. Day 1 after an outing is a “flush day’ with elastic band work, small weights, stretching and running. Flush that lactic acid out. Days 2 through 4 consists of long toss, flat ground and an incline session at 85%. The goal is to repeat mechanics and shape pitches and NOT maxing out. Work on How-to-Pitch to contact by locating.
• These side-days are devoted to more physical fitness and weight training and flexibility.
• The goal is to build up arm strength and stamina throughout the season. It’s expected that pitch counts and innings per outing should be different in March than in September. That’s a change in philosophy from the idea that a pitcher has just so many bullets in the belt and when they are used up, a pitcher is done.
• increase workloads as season progresses with goal 7 inning outings and a 185 healthy total innings. Some horses may throw more.
• there is no reason pitch counts have settled at 85. When a pitcher gets to 100 pitches on those rare occasions, it’s like Defcon 1. We’re waiting for the guys arm to fall off. I think 125 well regulated pitches is reasonable if the guy has gears and not using max-effort every pitch.
• The irony of today’s thinking is 4 or 5 innings are fine, leaving at least 4 innings per game to the bullpen. Then there are Skippers complaining about spent, depleted bullpens. Well, no shit.
• Think about using ice again if the pitcher has thrown 75+ pitches. Some PT folks say it’s useless but dedication by a pitcher to care for his arm, post outing, is an important mind-set.
• Encourage wearing sleeves in cool weather and putting on a hoodie or jacket between innings.
• Run more

Some of this is old school and science has pooh-poohed some of this ideas. But arm injuries are ruining the game. So let’s look at everything.

While I’m at it, I have some other suggestions to address in the offseason:

• Do something on the check swing rule.
• Install ABS full time. No challenges. 
• A welcome byproduct would eliminating framing. Gets the catchers off that knee resulting in fewer past balls/ wild pitches. 
• Address and clarify blocking home. 
• Address obstruction and interference with baserunners. Should a runner be be able to legally run on the grass to second on a potential 3-6-3 DP?
• use a tackified baseball, like Japan.
• refrain from signing pitchers with a history of arm injuries
• integration more contact hitters with sluggers. Decrease K-rates

That’s enough from me, for now. Respectful opinions on my thoughts are welcomed.

Over at Dodgers Digest, Dustin Nosler offers a thorough “offseason plan” that would essentially “run it back” by working deals to bring back free agents Teo, Kike, Treinen and Buehler, and make a significant addition in Adames.
His trade proposal for Crochet: Bobby Miller, Dalton Rushing, Jeondry Vargas and Oswaldo Osorio.
The White Sox might do that. It was reported that they were insisting on Rushing in talks last season. But I think the Sox need so much help they might be tempted by a bigger package.
Instead of Rushing, how about Cartaya plus Outman? They’d get a catcher and a outfielder who was finished 3rd for ROY in ’23.
Would Lux be of interest?
Just don’t want to deal Rushing before we can see what he can do. He can start out in a platoon with Pages, and get action at C and 1B. If he doesn’t wind up at catcher, he might be Freddie’s successor.
Like most folks, Nosler assumes that Sasaki will be a Dodger.
I’m having doubts about that.
Sasaki might prefer the Dodgers for the familiarity provided by two Japanese teammates. But would he want to be in Shohei’s shadow? Or would he earn more in endorsements as a bigger fish and a different big pond?