Ever since the end of the NLDS, all reports were that the Dodgers needed to add 3 starting pitchers: two top of the rotation, and one reclamation project. Okay, they signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and traded for Tyler Glasnow for top of the rotation, and have now signed their reclamation project, James Paxton. Mission accomplished.
Last year, AF/BG were soundly criticized because they did not have enough experienced pitching, and had to rely on kids who were not quite ready. End result…disaster in the NLDS. You can say it was the offense (and it was), but the starting pitching was horrendous. The Dodgers were not totally blown out because of their stalwart bullpen.
Now the Dodgers have the following starting pitching:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Tyler Glasnow
- Walker Buehler
- Bobby Miller
- James Paxton
- Emmet Sheehan/Gavin Stone
- Gavin Stone/Emmet Sheehan
- Landon Knack
- Michael Grove
- Kyle Hurt
- Nick Frasso (non 40 man)
- River Ryan (non 40 man)
That is a 6 man rotation with a full 6 man behind them. Ryan Yarbrough still wants to start, so perhaps he should be added.
Some are having misgivings about Paxton because that is taking away potential starts from the kids. Maybe the Dodgers’ brass is not as enamored by the kids as the fans are. Maybe the Dodgers see them as depth rather than front line starting pitchers (for 2024).
I am also not convinced that the kids will stay as starters and not find themselves in the bullpen. Both Sheehan and Stone were more effective as relievers. Grove is an emergency starter. Hurt is probably more suited for the bullpen. Knack probably needs to prove last year was not an aberration. Frasso and Ryan are not ready. Isn’t that too much wishful hoping? This is not the year for wishful hoping.
The Dodgers undoubtedly believed that they could go with one of the kids in the rotation, but not two. It is not as if I believe that AF/BG are infallible. But I know they have a better understanding as to where each of the young pitchers fit in their overall plans.
Some wanted the Dodgers to sign Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, or Seth Lugo as the reclamation project. The problem with that is they were all given multiyear deals, and the kids would have been blocked even more.
The Dodgers wanted a LHSP, and it probably came down to Paxton and Hyun-jin Ryu. They chose Paxton. Some will agree, others will not.
What are the Dodgers getting with Paxton? He is a 35 year old LHSP who at times was exceptional, and at other times, not very good at all. He has never been a big innings eating pitcher. 160.1 IP is his career high, and he has had one other year with 150.2. But with a 6-man rotation, he does not need to be. He has also been a very good strikeout pitcher.
He was a sophomore draft eligible pitcher from the University of Kentucky, and was a first round pick by Toronto in 2009 (37th overall). It was believed at the time that Paxton, who is Canadian, would sign with Toronto. He did not sign. A year later, he was drafted by Seattle in the 4th round and signed.
He has a four pitch repertoire: 95 MPH Fastball (57%), 81 MPH Curve (19%), 86 MPH Cutter (16%), and 84 MPG Change (6%).
Paxton has made 156 starts over the course of his 10-year career. He has compiled a very respectable career 3.69 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.22 WHIP and 112 ERA+. He also averaged just under 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Also very respectable.
Paxton was out for all of 2022 due to TJ surgery, after only one start and 1.1 IP in 2021. He had a hamstring issue at the beginning of the season. He made his season debut on May 12 against St. Louis. He pitched fairly well for his first game in more than 2 years. He had pitched 21.2 innings since the start of the 2020 season. He completed 5.0 innings, surrendering 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 BB. He also had 9 strikeouts. The 2 runs were from a 2-run 2-out HR in the first inning by Nolan Arenado. He retired the last 7 batters in order, including 5 via strikeout.
Through his first 16 starts in 2023, he posted a 3.34 ERA, 3.69 xFIP and 1.14 WHIP. He struck out 26.3 percent of the batters he faced and walked only 6.5 percent. Those numbers are really solid.
Paxton had a 10-game stretch last season where he posted a 2.73 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 29.1 K%, 6.4 BB%.
His last 6 starts were not good at all. But it could very well have been that he hit a wall, and he pushed himself to the point he injured his knee. He ended the season on the IL with right knee inflammation. Do not know that to be true, but it seems reasonable that he hit a wall after nearly 3 years with no pitching.
Paxton is hoping for positive results like Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Evan Phillips, and Ryan Brasie, who are all successful graduates of the Mark Prior Pitching Lab. Jake McGee and Yency Almonte both improved once becoming a Dodger. Noah Syndergaard is the exception, but he only came to the Dodgers because he thought that the Mark Prior could get him to throw 100 again. That is all he wanted, and it did not happen. Can’t win them all over.
The Dodgers will be getting a veteran pitcher who can become an effective #5 starting pitcher. He is not going to give the Dodgers 180 IP. He is not a CY candidate. He may tire or get injured again. But he will give the Dodgers more starter depth, allowing the kids to build their resumes up either at OKC or in the bullpen, and be ready when the opportunity arises, as it undoubtedly will.
With Paxton now in the rotation, and with Walker Buehler probably starting the season on the IL, that will give Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone the golden opportunity to compete for the #6 spot.
$11MM is not a lot for the Dodgers. It is $.5MM more than Pittsburgh is paying Aroldis Chapman. It is $3MM less than Jack Flaherty.
If you believe that 2-3 Dodger kid pitchers are ready to be MLB starters, you are probably not very happy with the signing. However, if you believe that none of the kids (except Bobby Miller), have proven they can be MLB starters, then adding a veteran #5 starter and allowing further development for the kids, you are probably not at all upset. I fall into the latter category.
Paxton has upside, but has been very unreliable the last 5 years. Although his salary is only roughly $12 million, it will also trigger a Cohen tax of another $13 million. I would have preferred Ryu to Paxton, but would probably have went with the in-house guys plus Kershaw. Between Sheehan, Stone, Yarbrough, Grove, Ryan, Knack and Frasso they should be able to find a 5th and 6th starter. And these guys are not very young, mostly 24-27 years old already.
It is going to be a very interesting spring training. Hoskins signs for two years with the Brewers. A couple of teams, one of them being the Pirates, are interested in Thor. Miguel Sano signed a minor league deal with the Angels who kept busy and signed Matt Moore to a one-year deal. Bellinger still out there.
Besides the two regular season games to be played in Korea, the Dodgers and Padres with both play two exhibition games against Korean teams. One an All-Star team and the other against one of the KBO teams.
You say Buehler will not be ready so Sheehan/Stone can compete for the #6 spot. Wouldn’t that be #5, assuming:
Glasnow
Yamamoto
Miller
Paxton
?
I like the Paxton signing. I thought the Dodgers needed one more veteran SP once it was mentioned that Buehler would not break camp with the Dodgers and instead go to extended ST. I was good with either Ryu or Paxton and it gives the Dodgers time to let the youngsters settle in and see who “rises” to the occasion.
I tend to agree with Mark, who has been on the Landon Knack promotion tour for some time now. I think he will come to ST ready to show his stuff after seeing the likes of Grove, Stone, Miller and Sheehan promote to the big leagues last year.
What AF has done this off season is nothing short of amazing. Acquiring big names the like of Ohtani, Yammamato, Glasnow and Hernandez while also adding to the MiB pipeline with the acquisitions of Ferris and Hope has shown all MLB baseball fans what we, as Dodger fans, already know. AF is the best in the business and has the built the best Front Office (scouting, development, international acquisition etc.).
Ownership has pushed their chips to the middle of the table and have went all in. AF has outbid/maneuvered other GM’s and has assembled (at least on paper) the best Dodger team in many, many years. It will soon be up the players to come together, play as a team of destiny and bring home a WS championship so LA can have a parade down Figueroa.
If there are any more moves to come it might be the signing of Ryan Brasier.
Let’s roll!
Beltre, Mauer and Helton now in the Hall and Mattingly fans are not happy. Mauer played 15 years, Mattingly 14. Mattingly has a lower WAR. He won one batting title and one MVP award. Mauer won three batting titles and one MVP. Donnie had a .307 career BA. Mauer’s is .306. Difference is catchers usually do not hit .300. Don could still get elected via the Golden Age committee. Will be the only way Sheffield makes it. This was his last year on the writer’s ballot, and he wasn’t close. Billy Wagner should make it next year in his last year on the ballot. He was just short of 75%. Shoo in next year is Ichiro.
To win the first best-of-five series that’s been our nemesis the last two years we need 27 innings from our staff. I believe Paxton is capable of providing 4-5 of them. That’s all that matters.
Looks like the Cold Stove is finally starting to warm up with a few signings here and there league wide. About time it’s almost February.
Looks like we are going with a 6 man rotation which is probably best for the long haul. Hard to imagine back in the day when teams had 4 man rotations.
Can’t wait for spring training to begin. At least we can see some action.
Ryu is a sentimental choice, but Paxton is the smarter signing. Hyun-Jin has a lot of innings in his arm going back to his age 19 season in Korea (over 200 innings). His FB velocity has been on a linear downward trend along with his ERA and FIP the last few seasons. He’s 36 and probably running on fumes at this stage of his career. A decent comp is Zack Grienke – has gotten by with guile in spite of declining velo, but even that’s not enough anymore. I’m not even sure he’ll be signed.
Paxton is still throwing 95+, and his FB velo ticked up last year as he recovered from TJ surgery. This will be his second year back from TJ, which is often the time when a pitcher takes a big step forward in shaking off the lingering effects. In the first half last year when he was fresh his performance mirrored his peak years before he petered out in the second half.
He probably still has a lot in the tank, maybe not for much more than 100 innings, but if AF manages the workload over the course of the season with his creative use of the IL for any number of ailments, then that should be enough, especially if you expect Kershaw to return in August.
I predict and hope that the Dodgers make the six man rotation standard operating procedure moving forward. I think that was always one of the big attractions about Ohtani. He gives you and extra roster spot, which makes it makes it easy to go with a six man rotation. With as hard and high effort as pitchers throw in this era, a five man rotation seems anachronistic if you want to protect your pitching investments. Injuries to pitchers are at epidemic levels. Easing workloads with an extra day of rest can’t hurt. A six man is really the only way both May and Gonsolin have a spot in the rotation next year (and that’s even with assuming that Buehler’s gone)
Someone yesterday posted the speculation that Buehler will be slowly eased into a larger workload and might not even contribute fully until after the ASB. If true, I’m on board. The team needs to do whatever it needs to in order to peak in September. I don’t think they have any real competition to win the division so they can afford to give Sheehan/Stone starts.
Kids not ready? I agree but the Dodgers did win 100 games and two of the three playoff games were lost by veteran pitchers. Had Pepiot been allowed to start game three and done well, then along with the 100 wins, maybe it could be said the kids were ready. Then there was the absence of hitting by the veterans in the playoffs.
If the Dodgers have too many pitchers for 2025, maybe they can again grab a Ferris and Hope.
Last November, Clayton Kershaw announced on Instagram that he underwent left shoulder surgery to repair gleno-humeral ligaments, and his expected return date will be “some point next summer.”
I admit I am just not smart enough, or have anywhere near the knowledge and experience with this surgery to know what the chances of Kershaw coming back and being the elite pitcher he has been. Here is the abstract for the gleno-humeral ligaments:
Kershaw turns 36 in March. Has thrown 2712.2 innings + another 194.1 playoff innings. He has been dealing with injuries every year since 2016. Shoulder surgeries are not easy to return from.
I do not question Clayton’s work ethic to come back, but I do wonder how much more that left arm can give.
For the record, I want the Dodgers to sign Kershaw this year. Whatever it takes. I want him to end his career as a Dodger, and not with what transpired last October as our last image of his HOF career. If nothing else, one more start at Dodger Stadium.
I bring this up because so many are assuming that Kershaw is going to come back this summer and be Clayton Kershaw. I am not that omnipresent or clairvoyant. If he does, that would just make the Dodgers that much better. If not, the kids will get their chance. There will be lots of opportunities for success. I am higher on Sheehan than Stone, but both need that third pitch, or they will become the next SP that move to the pen. RH versions of Andrew Miller??? Nothing wrong with that.
Before we anoint Landon Knack as a viable SP option, I think we need to see who shows up at ST. Will he be the round version as he was in 2022, or the more svelte version he was last year? As impressive as Landon was in 2023, he was just as unimpressive in 2022. He did reach AA as a 23 year old in 2021. And that means something to me.
He is the one youngster (at 26 is he a youngster?) who does not have huge reliever risk. He is a SP with 4 pitches and with control. He will start out at OKC, but his best value may come as a trade option. If not traded, he could be a viable #5/#6, more on the lines of Mitch White. Those guys are needed as well.
Be prepared for the “death ball”!
Maybe the next sweeper-esque new pitch. Kind of a fastball with gyro-spin! Comes Out of Charlotte and thrown by Jordan Montgomery effectively in the playoffs.
more here ($$$$)
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/87818/bullpen-session-deathball-what-is-it/
I like this Paxton signing. Along with Badger, I’m on board with a six man rotation. And, it should be initiated right from the start of the season. This will give Yamamota a better chance to adjust to the American game. It will allow Miller (inexperienced), Glasnow (injury history), and Paxton (injury history) to increase the odds of staying healthy. Finally, it will give Sheehan, Stone, or Knack an opportunity to get some MLB innings. Then incorporate Buehler if and when he is ready to pitch.
With Jeff’s research on Kershaw’s injury it doesn’t appear the odds of him pitching this year doesn’t look good. If he does return then he would replace the sixth person in the rotation which will probably be a rookie. Right now, the Dodgers have plenty of pitchers to go to a six man rotation to start the season.
If the offense plays up to their potential it would reduce the stress and expectations from the starting rotation. If that happens it would be a terrific opportunity to see what the youngsters can do. And, like we found out last year, who knows how many starting pitchers the team will need?
Carry on.
I keep reading about a 6-man rotation, but… Someone, somewhere, said that’s how it will be? Has the office already assured that there will be 6 starters? Or is it just a simple wish of us as fans?
DodgerRick, if 19 months is the mean time to return any idea what the quickest was? Since the data is for only 9 pitchers, it’s a pretty small sample size, so is it realistic to think Kershaw can return this year!
Jeff or Bear,
Please delete if you have even the slightest inclination to.
Harkening back to a few days ago.
San Francisco’s homeless budget is $850mm, it has 7,754 homeless people
That means SF spends approximately $110k per homeless person per year
This is not a problem of capital! The city has wonderfully talented people producing amazing things. The problem is legal and that the CURRENT government is completely incompetent.
Is there a post in the works on the BA top thirty? Would enjoy reading and commenting on it. Thanks.
Great look at the Dodgers International signings: