I got sidetracked from a couple of my posts in progress because of the CF discussion, which prompted some further discussion from me on the overall lack of MLB ready CF talent in the organization.
In the discussion between James Outman and Andy Pages as the regular CF, there were multiple posters indicating that they favored Pages over Outman because of the eye test. I am not sure what the eye test is. They both look like athletes. Outman was a decorated linebacker on a solid HS football team where he was a MaxPreps All Northern California linebacker. Outman is 6’2”, 215 pounds and Pages 6’1”, 212 pounds.
In Outman’s 2023 rookie season slash line – .248/.353/.437/.790. Pages in 2024 slash line .248/.309/.407/.716.
They both had the same bat speed. Pages does have better bat to ball skills, there is no denying that. Outman will K more, no denying that. Pages’ bat to ball skills measured by squared up, whiff, and K rates are superior to Outman. However, not that much better as Pages is also in the Statcast blue zone. Yet Outman’s chase and walk rates are in the red and far superior to Pages.
In Outman’s rookie year, 2023, he had an OAA of 9 and was in the 94th percentile. In Pages’ rookie year, 2024, his OAA was 1 in the 75th percentile.
Outman’s sprint speed was 28.9 (89th percentile). Pages’ sprint speed was 28.3 (75th percentile).
Outman will strike out a ton. But that is the one area that Pages is better. For some that is more important than any other metric. I don’t like the strikeouts. But I do have a tendency to put more emphasis on defense than most. There was nothing in Pages’ ST that says he will be a better hitter in 2025 than he was in 2024.
Anyway, as I said before, that debate is over. Pages won. Time to move on. Maybe AF/BG uses the same eye test. But there is a more profound problem in the LAD organization. It is the lack of MLB ready position players. It is apparent at all positions, but CF is a real problem.
Let me preface this with a statement, IMO AF is the best POBO in MLB. I am not sure that anyone is close. Now I know that some will call me a moron, but AF is not immune to missteps. It is one thing too just add a caveat saying AF does make missteps, but then not mention what those missteps might be, and still anyone who disagrees with that is a moron. I can live with that. I have been called worse.
AF joined the Dodgers before the 2015 season. Since then the Dodgers have exactly one homegrown position player as a regular (Will Smith). Andy Pages is probably at best a 4th OF if the Dodgers had a CF, so I am not ready to label him a regular. But I do hope he has a solid season that would make him a second homegrown regular.
Let’s look at the Dodgers options for CF. They have big time misses in Jeren Kendall (1st round 2017) and Jake Vogel (3rd round 2020). Kendall is out of the game, and I have no idea how long Vogel will be there. Jake has already spent the last two years at Great Lakes (A+) and last year had a slash line of .177/.298/.244/.541. Not very encouraging. José Ramos is scheduled to return to Tulsa for a 3rd year as the CF, and Fangraphs’ Roster Resource has Vogel returning to Great Lakes where he will probably play behind Kendall George.
Other than Outman or Hyeseong Kim, the closest prospect to being MLB ready is Kendall George (1st round 2023). But his offense has not really taken off, and his defense to a step back last year (7 errors in 152 chances). He is still young and will get his first look at advanced A in Great Lakes. Maybe something clicks this year in A+, but the Midwest League is more of a pitcher’s league than the California League.
Lower level prospects include Eduardo Quintero who will play a full season at Rancho this year. Also starting his professional career at Rancho will be Mike Sirota, the Reds player returned in the Gavin Lux trade. I can still call him homegrown because he has not yet appeared with any professional team. He will be fully developed in the LAD organization.
Other OF capable of CF tentatively landing in Rancho include Samuel Munoz (IFA), Kole Myers (9th round 2024), and Jarron Elkins (8th round 2023).
We will get a look at possibly three rookie level CF this year: Brandon Tunink (8th round 2024), Ching-Hsien Ko (IFA), Jose Gonzalez (IFA).
But all of those A+ and A prospects are at least 3 years away.
One other interesting choice is the possibility that Kellon Lindsey (1st round 2024) could move to CF. The concern with Lindsey at SS is his average arm at that position. The Dodgers will do everything possible to develop Kellon as a SS and hope he can climb the ladder quickly.
I do not include Josue DePaula or Zyhir Hope in this exercise as neither are CF prospects.
My hopes are that Outman is traded before the start of the regular season to a team that will value him more than the Dodgers. He is 27 and will have no options after this year. If he stays the full season at OKC he will be non-tendered next year and can sign with any team. The Dodgers do not have plans for Outman, so why not give him a chance at a MLB job with another team. Sometimes it isn’t always what is best for the team, but sometimes it should be what is best for the player. Especially when keeping Outman at OKC for insurance purposes is why he is retained.
Hyeseong Kim is a potential CF candidate. But is he better at 2B with Edman in CF?
After that, there are no CF hopefuls anytime soon. I am sure that AF/BG will take a long look Luis Robert Jr. if he stays healthy at the deadline. Robert Jr. does have 2 option years ($20MM each), not that unwieldly for LAD.
Other potential CF free agents next year:
- Cedric Mullins (31)
- Harrison Bader (32) – mutual option
- Trent Grisham (29)
- Garrett Hampson (31)
- Travis Jankowski (35)
- Manuel Margot (31)
- Michael A. Taylor (35)
- Kevin Pillar (37)
Garrett Hampson should be available this year as he is expected to opt out of his Arizona MiLB contract.
I have not done a thorough review of potential CF trade candidates. But my quick look-see gives me pause to believe that any quality CF in other organizations will be traded.
It is not like the Dodgers have not made attempts at drafting CF. It is just that they have not panned out. Outman was not a CF prospect when he was drafted. He played almost exclusively in RF at Sac State. And yet his athleticism allowed him to become one of the better defensive CF in MLB.
Slim pickings.
Great character actor! Loved him in Dr. Strangelove. Pretty decent in Blazing Saddles too. 😁 😅 😋
That was Slim Pickins actually
I am very aware. I was being funny.
This is Slim
Didn’t have to explain it to me. I thought it was funny.
Thanks Badger. I thought so too.
Loved it. Next up sarcasm!
Bear don’t do sarcasm.
I actually knew Slim when he lived up in Columbia, Northern California, I actually went to a wedding that was held in his house in that tiny little mining town.
Yes, because once upon a time you attended a wedding at the house of Slim Pickens, all double entendre style humor involving his name is sacrilege to the cherished memory of the great Slim Pickens and is strictly forbidden.
Good grief!
I thought Bear’s joke was funny.
I was being serious, I knew Slim when he lived in a small historical town of Columbia. I met him at a wedding he allowed to have in his Gold Rush era home. So you can now get over yourself Patch.
I don’t doubt that you once met him or knew him. I just find it bizarre that you’re actually offended simply because Bear invoked his name in a joke that was incredibly tame, and that you’re attempting to dictate to Bear what he’s allowed to joke about because of your hypersensitivity.
If you’re so exercised by humor that even remotely comes at the expense of actors, please don’t ever watch the Ricky Gervais opening monolog at the 2020 Golden Globes (which is still hilarious).
I actually do sarcasm very well; I have t-shirts to prove it.
That might take a little longer.
If only he could play centerfield…
MLB finally made a ruling on Julio Urias. He is suspended until the All-Star break. His ineligible status will be lifted July 17th. Somebody is going to sign him at a very reduced price. CF is a problem, has been since Bellinger left.
I don’t have to remind folks that we won a WS last year without a star CF. I think AF will figure out what can be done. I’m not particularly worried at this point.
Me neither, but you know some fans panic when there isn’t a set 8 defensive players.
We need 8 all stars! Cmon AF. Don’t rest on your laurels!
I do not think I am panicing. But when it comes to what I believe are equal offensive performers, I am going with the defense. Dodgers have won a lot of years with pitching and defense.
Again, my point for this post is that the Dodgers, with all of their reported experise in development, have failed to develop a legit CF prospect in AF’s 10 years of drafts and IFA. The last true CF prospect the Dodgers developed is Joc. Cody was a converted 1B/RF who turned into a fantastic CF. Both Joc and Cody were Logan White/Ned Colletti draft picks The last true LAD SS developed in the last 10 years was Corey Seager, also a Logan White/Ned Colletti draft pick.
I think the strategy for CF is to get the best athletes and the cream will rise. Belli is a case in point.
It has always puzzled me that some pro athletes who grew up on an infield could seem totally lost in the OF. Lux, for example. Didn’t every kid play three flies up? I know at least one Dodger fan who kept insisting that Lux could be moved to CF even after the Dodgers figured out he was best suited to 2B.
This season, I would have been fine if the Dodgers had opted for a platoon of Outman and Pages, with Mookie, Edman and Rojas covering the middle infield. And both Kike and Taylor could handle CF as well.
The question now may be whether management gives Pages a full-time audition. If he comes anywhere close to matching Outman’s rookie numbers, it will be considered a big success.
Good point. It would be good to have an ever day Major League centerfielder but with this lineup it isn’t necessary.
And Rojas at SS and a dearth of starting pitchers.
AF has already figured it out. He is going with Pages. If you believe that Pages is the long term CF, then we are in different universes. Not saying you are wrong, only that we disagree. The only reason that Pages has the CF job is because he passes an eye test, and apparently because of his bat.
This post has nothing to do with whether they can win this year without a true CF. They can win with Pages in CF. The point is that there needs to be a pipeline for position players just like they have with pitchers. I am working on another post on the same theme with respect to the lack of MLB ready SS outside of Alex Freeland.
The Guardians just landed Nolan Jones from the Rockies in a trade for a UT guy I’d never heard of.
A bit puzzling. Two years ago, Jones looked like an emerging star, finishing 4th in ROY voting behind Outman although he only played just over 100 games. Strong bat, strong arm. Passed the eye test with flying colors. Got hurt in ’24 and lost about 200 points on his OPS.
I seriously thought Jones would be a good trade target for the Dodgers but that the Rockies wouldn’t let go of him. (Besides, a deal within the division would have been problematic.)
Could Jones play CF? Maybe. Probably better than Pages.
Come to think, Jones is tall and swift–a bit like Belli.
It’s not like the Rockies put Jones on EBay… but I wonder if this pending deal crossed AF’s radar. (Gomes says they pulled off the 3-way deal for Edman and Kopech after learning about two-team negotiations that were in the works.)
I’m fine with Pages starting as long as AF is working on a plan to bring in a better solution in the future. No rush. They don’t need to panic and they’ve proved that winning with this club is not based on an elite CF. If Pages can surprise us with better defense and batting, I’m all in. I certainly didn’t complain seeing Edman in CF. That guy can play baseball.
Yarbrough opting out of his Jays contract, Mark Canha traded by the Brewers to the Royals for a PTBNL and cash. D-Backs gave Justin Martinez a 5-year extension for 18 mil. He also has two club options. Rays traded RHP Nathan Wiles to the Braves for cash. Darvish will start the season on the IL. Thairo Estrada will miss 4-8 weeks with a broken wrist according to the Rockies. Mets signed former Dodger, Billy McKinney to a minor league deal. Dominic Smith opted out of his contract with the Yankees. Garrett Hampson opted out of his deal with Arizona. Cubs released infielder, Nicky Lopez.
I got Quintero after Pages.
Can he at least get to and succeed at AA before he is annointed as the future CF? He has all of 92 non-productive AB at Rancho. He is only 19 and has a long way to go (4 years?). He is not Jackson Chourio or Julio Rodriguez.
Another green CF candidate is Michael Sirota, acquired in the Lux deal. By some accounts he had showed 1st round talent before an illness sidetracked him. I still have hope that Hope will be an early bloomer.
I think I read that Quintero was converted from catcher to CF because of his speed. (Perhaps management also concluded that Quintero didn’t quite have the chops for catcher.)
Anyway, Dodgers management seems content with “good enough” defense in CF if the bat plays.
If Pages doesn’t get a full-time audition, I expect that Edman will shuttle often between CF and 2B. He could start a lot of games at 2B and shift to CF for defensive purposes. A few times he might play CF, 2B and SS in the same game.
If it was a pure meritocracy, I think Outman would make the roster in place of Taylor. His lefty bat, defense and speed would be a better complement to the team.
As it stands, Outman could be the first Comet called up if there is an injury. And that’s fine.
Orioles signed Kyle Gibson.
Dodgers back in action tomorrow night at Dodger Stadium.
Sure would be nice to still have Cody Bellinger in CF; I am predicting a big year for him with the Yankees…
I think we’re covered in CF for the next 2-3 years: Tommy Edman. Let him play there until the younger guys Jeff mentioned prove they’re still top prospects in AA and AAA.
In the meantime, we also about 10 right handed AAAA guys that could/should be traded for a MLB ready CF’er.
Outman, Kim, and Freeland will be competing to be 1st up.
Pages and Taylor will be competing for 1st down.
May depend on who gets injured.
If they need OF, edge to Outman. For IF, edge to Freeland–though they could still opt for Outman because the lineup is so versatile.
Keeping Kim on the farm for a while will help him adjust and gain confidence.
Taylor’s contract meanw he won’t go down, I think.
But he might go out…
Are we forgetting about spring star David Bote here?
He’ll be at OKC too, right?
Dodgers love veterans and Bote can play 3B, 2B or 1B.
I just do not know what CF is available for any of those AAAA RHP. I know Luis Robert Jr. is a favorite target for many. I have no clue if AF/BG have any true interest in him. They may be willing to trade Landon Knack, but not Bobby Miller unless they are very convinced he can play a full season without injury and stay productive. Robert Jr. is going to need 150 AB to show he can stay healthy and productive so that CWS can maximize their return. That would be unfair to their fanbase if they sold low. Otherwise they will just let him go to FA next year. There is no way CWS exercises a $20MM option. Unless anyone believes that Robert Jr. is worthy of $20MM guaranteed for 2026 (and another $20MM for 2027) he is a rental. Thus he is more likely to be traded at the deadline when some desperate team will overpay. That will not be AF/BG.
The only trade proposals I have seen involve NYY CF prospect Everson Pereira. Sporting News proposed the following:
Newsweek proposed a similar mock trade, which Athlon Sports reported:
I must admit that I hadn’t heard of Pereira until you mentioned him just now, so naturally I headed to Baseball Reference to look at his stats.
He seems to be just what we need. A guy who can play centerfield, has had decent stats in the minors and in his 100 or so at bats in the majors has struck out 40% of the time.
Sure, lets trade Catman or Miller for him. He sounds just like a right handed James Outman. Then we could platoon both those guys. Or not.
If I rooted for the Yankees, I’d have probably cooked up such a deal for Gonsolin. Just seems like idle speculation… which is my specialty, and Jim Bowden’s too.
I don’t think the Sporting News or Athlon Sports (whatever that is) are reporting actual discussions but just a idea that might make sense.
They were mock trades. They are another Bleacher Report.
Jeff D. your astute comment “Sometimes it isn’t always what is best for the team, but sometimes it should be what is best for the player.” couldn’t be more accurate and empathetic to the players.
Outman (and some other Dodgers like Feduccia) are stuck in the organization.
Before 1975, many potential big league players were stuck in an organization, unable to get a chance elsewhere.
It was called the reserve clause. Players were indentured servants until they retired, got traded, got released, or died waiting for an opportunity.
The reserve clause was struck down in 1975.
That was to change everything for players.
Well in some cases, like Outman, it hasn’t changed as long as organizations stubbornly stock-piling talent in the minors. And their chances are diminished every time the organization acquires another player through trades or free agency and drops them on top of the AAAA player.
I absolutely agree that this is bad for a player and it was the reason for free-agency to begin with.
I was really hoping Outman would seize the day and win the CF gig. At least against righties.
I was too. I like how hard he plays. I also bet we’d see a pretty good James Outman over the course of an entire season if he played in Oakland, Chicago, or Pittsburgh.
Well, it’s still spring training and if Outman gets at bats against the Angels, and Taylor stinks it up, maybe a miracle will create an Outman / Pages platoon.
Since there is no need to trade Outman, I think the FO will wait for a particular deal to package him for an opportunity to acquire another starter. The patience of the FO can be frustrating to the fans and AF seems to be in no rush ‘solve’ CF.
Feduccia is another one. His baseball age is 28. He can be a backup for multiple MLB teams this year. I would imagine there is 1 or 2 teams he could start for (Miami?). Yes, he can be the LAD backup next year without Austin Barnes, but isn’t that what Dalton Rushing is for? AF/BG can always acquire a Chris Okey for emergency. They had Travis d’Arnaud for 1 AB in 2019.
There is a Phillie backup catcher, 32 year old Garrett Stubbs, who was just optioned because he still has an option year so they could could bring up switch hitting backup catcher Rafael Marchán who is out of options. Stubbs is not an offensive threat in any way, but he draws above-average grades for his throwing and solid marks for blocking balls in the dirt. Ideal backup catcher. Like Feduccia, he does not need AAA. The difference with Stubbs is that Philadelphia does not have Dalton Rushing waiting for JT Realmuto to move on, so they need him. I am partial to Stubbs because he is a Trojan.
If we can believe the front office when they indicate that Rushing is going to be a catcher first and foremost, then there is no reason to keep Feduccia, certainly not beyond the deadline.
He will definitely be taken in the Rule 5 so AF might as well see what he can get for him. If Rushing isn’t ready to take a spot on the major league roster by 2026 then he really isn’t fulfilling his hype.
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Okey, so I would actually trade Feduccia now rather than wait for July and get even less for him. Considering what we got for Beaty (River Ryan), who knows what Andrew might get for Feduccia.
Feduccia is not Rule 5 eligible any longer. He is already on the 40 man, and has 2 option years remaining. Rushing will be Rule 5 eligible. But I suspect he will be added to the 40 man/26 man some time this season.
Senior moment there. Of course he won’t be Rule 5 eligible if he’s on the 40-man. Now I feel even worse for him with 2 option years remaining.
I think the lack of outfielder prospects in the Dodgers system is a subject that’s been discussed here and elsewhere for years.
It’s true. There hasn’t been.
Now, is this evidence of some inability or weakness in the AF regime’s ability to draft position players? I mean, Scott would say so, but he’s a bit nutty, so there’s that; but I think Jeff has hinted at that, too.
Maybe, but I don’t really buy that.
I mean, number one, you’re never going to completely overcome the Dodgers draft position. They’re always going to be at a disadvantage. Yeah, they’ve whiffed on a few, but are they worse than any other MLB team if you factor in their draft position?
And number two, I think the Dodgers have a strategy.
They look at their draft and player development as accumulating aggregate value. They can use that value to either perform at the MLB level or trade that value for positions of need.
The Dodgers ability to develop pitching is well documented. They’re a machine. They can take a lower draft position or cast-off from another team, revamp or develop that pitcher and increase his value.
Now you have value that you can trade. It’s a fungible asset.
So, rather than try to draft an outfielder prospect to fill a position of need, which is a longshot, trade for one from a position of strength.
I’ve never played with that trade simulator, but it’s based on the idea of WAR as a kind of currency.
I’m not concerned about outfield now so much. Maybe long term, the thing that I think about is the fact that Freddie, Ohtani, Mookie, Teoscar, and Max are on the wrong side of 30. There’s a window open now, that won’t be open for very long.
Especially for CF, they have drafted for athleticism and speed over baseball skills.Kendall, Vogel and George have been all D no hit choices. It hasn’t worked out.
Maybe, but perhaps their thinking is that drafting exceptional athletes over demonstrable skill allows the organization to develop those skills, and potentially get a good return on a player in a lower draft position. You’re born with natural athleticism. Skills can be developed.
Maybe. Baseball IQ is an important factor, too. Skills are usually imparted early in a player’s history. The HR factor can usually be seen as a minor leaguer as well as bat to ball skills. Then there are the mentors and how they pair with the players. Dodgers are not a team that goes after speed only. A guy like Outman who has an arsenal of talent and a debilitating weakness of striking out becomes a liability. One glaring liability outweighs everything else.
Dang Patch. Don’t put words in my mouth my man. It’s ok though, I still have mad love for you.
Why do we have to talk about baseball the way a programmer coding linux algorithms does? Friedman did a great job last year, and I have warmed up to him considerably. I’m even starting to come around on all of this advanced stats and three-true outcome stuff. But can we just call this like it is? They’ve whiffed on every single position player in the draft except for Will Smith. That’s a decade worth of poor drafting. No excuses. It is what it is.
My next question is, why not just play Tommy Edman in center? He plays the position well, hits better than Pages, and runs the bases well too. He can play there at least until they can find a younger or better option.
That’s my take on this.
Scott, when I call you an absolute batshit, stark raving lunatic I mean it in the most affectionate way.
Are the Dodgers really that much worse than the rest of the league in drafting and developing position players? I mean, Baltimore smokes the Dodgers in developing players, but they’re the Orioles and the best farm system in baseball, and they benefit from good draft picks. Houston has had a decent track record, too.
Before you call for AF to be drawn and quartered, put it in perspective.
And we’re not reducing players to Linux code … or Python or anything else (although I’m sure Sabre geeks in the Dodgers org use Python for data analysis).
I’m talking about looking at players in terms of the value they produce. You measure value with something like WAR, for example. WAR translates from one position to another. If the Dodgers are really good at developing that value in pitchers, they can trade that surplus value for a position player.
They uses that value to trade for Edman, and I agree, I think he could/should see playing time in CF, unless Pages has improved his CF reads and jumps.
Well, if Mookie does end up playing SS, which I don’t think is a good idea, and if Kim sometime this year starts to get used to MLB pitching, he can play 2B…..then we would or should move Edman to CF. Being a switch hitter, he can practically be full time, although you can probably give either Outman or Pages a chance to play when you want to give Edman and or Conforto a day off every so often.
Mookie is playing SS period. Why do you guys keep doubting the guy? He is one of the best athletes on the team. He wants to play SS, and he wants to be great as a SS. I don’t see Kim improving all that much that quickly. Nolan Jones traded by the Rockies to the Guardians for Tyler Freeman.
Saw that. Very interested in following Nolan Jones with Cleveland. Jones was #4 2023 ROY to James Outman #3. Jones had a bad year in 2024, not as bad as Outman, but bad nonetheless. Like Outman, Jones bats LH. Jones figures to be at least 4th OF for Cleveland this year or maybe RF. Freeman has been tentatively slated for 2B for Colorado.
Roberts has already discussed the likelihood of flux at 2B and CF. So I think we’ll see Edman shift back and forth.
I wonder if management will give Pages a chance to prove himself against righthanded pitching.
A feel-good piece about Dodger prospects…
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/los-angeles-dodgers-spring-training-report-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
If tge Dodgers want a legit centeegield they should use Andy Pages or James Outman and go get a Cedric Mullins or Trent Grissom so they have a legit centerfielder in all the years I’ve watched them they always seem to get a guy from another team that doesn’t okay until there’s a rookie ready to be up in the big leagues. They git Brett Butler from the Giants Marquis Grissom from the Braves and Ken Landreaux from the As so that’s what I think they should do is trade for a legit centefielder then Tommy and Mookie play 2b and SS and Rojas gives those guys days off along with Kiki and Taylor. I would think Trent Grissom would be the better choice an expadre. How about that an ex giant and ex padre starting this year for the Dodgers in the outfield.
If Mookie needs to go on the IL–and to me this feels likely–who should the Dodgers summon to replace him on the roster?
With Rojas, Edman, Taylor and Kike all able to cover SS and 2B, I’d lobby for Outman. But I like Bote too.
An Outman/Pages platoon has potential, despite the struggles of both players. They’d likely be batting 8th or 9th in the lineup.
The question with Bote is whether his impressive spring performance reflects true progress or just a small-sample thrill. If the brass believes in Bote, he could handle 2B.
Alex Freeland? Not yet proven–but probably more ready than Kim. Rushing? Not the right fit.
Am I forgetting somebody?
Bote would require him to be added to 40 man 1st. There is room, but I would agree that Outman would make more sense. He is already on the 40-man.