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Eight Championships and Counting

                                                     Number eight was oh so sweet. There is no feeling in this world like beating the Yankees in the World Series. That probably comes from the fact that for oh so long, the Yankees owned the Dodgers in the fall classic. From the first time they met in 1941, something always seemed to happen that derailed the Dodgers hopes. Starting with Owens passed ball in 41. By the time 1955 rolled around, the Dodgers were 9-20 against the Yankees in World Series play. Of the Dodgers eight series wins, four have now come against New York. 

                                                     Overall, the Dodgers are 4-8 against the Yankees in the World Series. Their other wins have come against the Twins, A’s, White Sox and Rays. They lost two to the Red Sox, one to Cleveland, one to Oakland, one to Baltimore and one to Houston. 8-14 in World Series play. Dodger fans right now are pretty amped up about this team. Back-to-back would ease a lot of angst over the last few seasons. They have dominated the West Division of the NL. Chances are, that will not change this year. 

                                                    But the team is getting older. And that for some should be a concern. All of their big stars are 30 or older, the bench players are all over 30 also. Kike is 33, Barnes is 35, Taylor is 34 and Miggy is 36. Pages is the youngest position player at 24 and the only position player on the team under 30. The Dodgers are going to need an infusion of youth either by trade or by bringing up some of their prized talent, and they need to do it soon. Muncy has one year plus a team option for 10 million. He is 34. If he has another Muncy like 35 long balls and an OPS over .800, my guess is that his option will be picked up. 

                                                 Smith will no doubt need to be given plenty of rest during the season. Is Barnes the back-up all year, or do we see Rushing at some point?  Many here do not see Mookie as being the full time SS at all. Most want him to move back to RF or second base. Well, he isn’t going to right unless something drastic happens. That is Teo’s home now, at least for this year with Conforto in left. So, is Freeland close to being a major league ready SS? Lots of questions. 

                                                  I expect the Dodgers will get some stiff competition for the division, but their depth is going to be a difference maker. Especially if their contenders suffer a loss to injury from any of their major stars. Just look how LA survived the loss of Betts and Muncy for an extended period of time. They lost Freeman for about two full weeks during the season. Their subs did the job. All five pitchers who were starters at the beginning of the year spent time on the IL. Only Yamamoto was active during the playoff run. 

                                                 What can we expect as the Dodgers begin to defend their title? One would be a potent offense. I see nothing that would say otherwise. Adding a healthy Max Muncy, and Will Smith returning to form could be huge. Conforto is a better option than Heyward or Kiermaier. Hopefully his defense is more than adequate. I still have some reservations about the bench with no lefty available to PH unless all the RH hitters are already in the game. And has been discussed, the lack of a true center fielder. I do not think Kim or Edman fit the bill of pure centerfielders. 

                                                  But the depth of this team should be more than able to plug holes and give AF the ability to pursue a trade if need be. Health is their main enemy. If any of the big three on offense go down, the team will have to find a way to cover that lost offense. The pitching is deep. Plenty of good arms will be available by June or July. I think they win the west easily. How healthy they are going into the playoffs will dictate how deep they go. 

Born June 14th, 1948, in Los Angeles California. AKA The Bear

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John

Nice job Bear. The fun is finally here. Dodgers may get stiff competition but the old saying “offense wins games, defense and pitching wins championships.” the strength of the Dodgers starting pitching and the depth along with a great bullpen, I feel good about the Dodgers. I believe with their young starters and front office the Dodgers will be in the hunt for a World Series Championship every year. Of course there will be years that we won’t get there but we will be in the hunt for at least the rest of this decade.

Dionysus

9

Dave

I agree. But I don’t mind hat they went out and signed great players so they could win for a window of time. But I hope they start infusing the roster with homegrown talent.
I have always thought that bringing up a rookie every year was a sustainable model but it requires that you have good talent at the needed position at just the right time, which is too much to hope for. But with trades and occasional free agents hey should be able to have a good mix of young and old.

Bobby

I’d ask how many of Baseball’s Top 100 prospects were first round picks, and especially top 10 picks.

Just looking at our starting lineup now:

Will Smith was around pick 32
Freeman 2nd rounder
Tommy Edman 6th round pick
Mookie Betts 5th round pick
Max Muncy 5th round pick
Michael Conforto was pick #10 (and he’s not some superstar whatsoever)
Outman 7th round pick
Teo and Pages were international guys so not in the draft
Dustin May 3rd round pick
Blake Snell pick 52
Tony Gonsolin 9th round pick
Kershaw top 10 pick
Glasnow 5th round
Roki/Yamamoto/Ohtani obviously not in the draft

This idea of “we don’t pick in the top 10 ever so therefore we can never get superstars” isn’t entirely accurate, especially when baseball has 20 rounds (and many more rounds in the past). Sure, we don’t get a crack at the super elite talents every year, but those aren’t the only ones who become top 100 prospects or MLB all stars.

Jeff Dominique

Thank you Bobby. 100% correct.

Badger
Jeff Dominique

It is accurate. I did a post on this a month or so ago. Where the Dodgers excel is developing players to reach MLB. There is a role for Zach McKinstry, Edwin Rios, Josh Sborz, Luke Raley, DJ Peters, Devin Smeltzer, Mitch White, Andre Scrubb, Connor Wong, Rylan Bannon, Jacob Amaya, Andre Jackson, Hunter Feduccia, Michael Grove, James Outman…They are not stars, but they are MLB players.

Last edited 2 days ago by Jeff Dominique
Bobby

No they weren’t. But LA can’t say “oh, we drafted low in 2007 and 2011, so we couldn’t get a superstar”.

In 2007, LA drafted Chris Withrow with pick 20, and James Adkins with pick 39. Atlanta took Freddie Freeman with pick 78: a superstar taken with pick 78 and LA had 2 shots at him.

In 2011, LA drafted Chris Reed with pick 16, Alex Santana with pick 73, Pratt Maynard with pick 103, Ryan O’Sullivan with pick 134, and Scott McGough with pick 164. Boston took a guy named Mookie Betts with pick 172. LA had 5 shots at a superstar and passed on him, for a bunch of guys who I don’t think ever made it to the majors.

I won’t get into Gunner Henderson or Aaron Volpe being passed over by Hoese and Busch

Jeff Dominique

Ned Colletti/Logan White did just fine in the draft. Just off the top of my head, they had three drafted pitchers (Kershaw/Billingsley/Eovaldi), and three drafted position players (Joc/Belli/Seager) who were All Stars (2006-2014). Logan White (pre Colletti) was also behind the drafts of Russell Martin and Matt Kemp.

Martin – 17th round
Kemp – 6th round
Kershaw – 1st round
Billingsley – 1st round
Eovaldi – 11th round
Joc – 11th round
Belli – 4th round
Seager – 1st round

White’s accumen for finding international free agents was also quite good: Kenley Jansen, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-jin Ryu, Julio Urías, Takashi Saito, Hiroki Kuroda. Puig, Ryu, and Saito were All Stars for LAD.

I think the pre-Guggenheim amateur talent evaluators were very good compared to the current group. Their ability to acquire MLB talent not as much. But IMO that was due to the incompetent Frank McCourt and not Colletti.

Last edited 2 days ago by Jeff Dominique
Singing the Blue

I still have high hopes for Pratt Maynard. Great name.

Bluto

Well, you’d need to discount the International free agents, first. Obviously.

But most players and most prospects come from the early rounds. Obviously not all, but it’s never all.

Here is a list of the top prospects in an aggregated format:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vNB0IZe_PZwaNF6MA5LRsYzHMvlySQ1sK6_mHBAVAJM/edit?gid=0#gid=0

A quick back of the envelope calculation of the top 100 shows:
25% International Signings
41% First Rounders
9% Second Rounders

Here is a list of last year’s all-stars:
C: Adley Rutschman (BAL)
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
2B: Marcus Semien (TEX)
3B: José Ramírez (CLE)
SS: Gunnar Henderson (BAL)
OF: Aaron Judge (NYY)
OF: Juan Soto (NYY)
OF: Steven Kwan (CLE)
DH: Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
Reserves
C: Salvador Perez (KC)
INF: Josh Naylor (CLE)
INF: Isaac Paredes (TB)
INF: Willi Castro (MIN) +
INF: Corey Seager (TEX) +
INF: Jordan Westburg (BAL) +
INF: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)
OF: Jarren Duran (BOS)
OF: Riley Greene (DET)
OF: Anthony Santander (BAL) +
DH: David Fry (CLE)
Starting pitchers
LHP: Tyler Anderson (LAA)
RHP: Corbin Burnes (BAL)
LHP: Garrett Crochet (CWS)
RHP: Tanner Houck (BOS)
RHP: Seth Lugo (KC)
LHP: Cole Ragans (KC)
LHP: Tarik Skubal (DET)
Relief pitchers
RHP: Emmanuel Clase (CLE)
RHP: Clay Holmes (NYY)
RHP: Andrés Muñoz (SEA) +
RHP: Mason Miller (OAK)
RHP: Kirby Yates (TEX)
Unavailable
INF: Jose Altuve (HOU)
INF: Carlos Correa (MIN)
INF: Rafael Devers (BOS)
RHP: Logan Gilbert (SEA)
OF: Kyle Tucker (HOU)
NATIONAL LEAGUEStarters
C: William Contreras (MIL)
1B: Bryce Harper (PHI)
2B: Ketel Marte (AZ)
3B: Alec Bohm (PHI)
SS: Trea Turner (PHI)
OF: Christian Yelich (MIL)
OF: Jurickson Profar (SD)
OF Teoscar Hernández (LAD) +
DH: Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Reserves
C: Will Smith (LAD)
INF: CJ Abrams (WSH)
INF: Pete Alonso (NYM)
INF: Luis Arraez (SD)
INF: Mookie Betts (LAD)
INF: Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
INF: Freddie Freeman (LAD)
INF: Ryan McMahon (COL)
OF: Teoscar Hernández (LAD)
OF: Jackson Merrill (SD)
OF: Heliot Ramos (SF)
OF: Bryan Reynolds (PIT)
DH: Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
Starting pitchers
LHP: Max Fried (ATL) +
RHP: Hunter Greene (CIN) +
LHP: Shota Imanaga (CHC)
RHP: Reynaldo López (ATL)
LHP: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) +
RHP: Paul Skenes (PIT)
RHP: Logan Webb (SF)
Relief pitchers
RHP: Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
LHP: Tanner Scott (MIA)
LHP: Matt Strahm (PHI)
RHP: Robert Suarez (SD)
RHP: Kyle Finnegan (WSH) +
Unavailable:
OF: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
RHP: Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
RHP: Ryan Helsley (STL)
LHP: Chris Sale (ATL)
LHP: Ranger Suárez (PHI)
RHP: Zack Wheeler 

And a breakdown of their providence:
IS: (20/65) * 100% = 30.77%
1RD: (26/65) * 100% = 40%
2RD: (4/65) * 100% = 6.15%
3RD: (1/65) * 100% = 1.54%
4RD: (1/65) * 100% = 1.54%
5RD: (2/65) * 100% = 3.08%
6RD: (1/65) * 100% = 1.54%
7RD: (1/65) * 100% = 1.54%
9RD: (2/65) * 100% = 3.08%
OTHER: (7/65) * 100% = 10.77%

Dionysus

Agree about the youth. Rushing & Freeland should add to the mix at some point this year and definitely next.

Jeff Dominique

The missed opportunities are present in the AF era as well. Gavin Lux and Mitch White over Bo Bichette. JT Ginn over Shane McClanahan. Kody Hoese and Michael Busch over Gunnar Henderson. Kody Hoese over Anthony Volpe. Busch was taken one pick after Volpe. There is a whole slew of picks in the 2021 draft that the Dodgers missed on while taking Maddux Bruns. I know that Bichette, McClanahan, and Henderson were all on the LAD very short list. 2019 was the last year I had a source extremely familiar with the LAD draft and who they were targeting. Unfortunately my friend is no longer with us.
 
I am with those who want to see the youngsters move up to LAD and play. But they have to be talented enough to play on a perennial contender, and that is not easy to find. Which is why I agree with Patch when he says: “They look at their draft and player development as accumulating aggregate value. They can use that value to either perform at the MLB level or trade that value for positions of need.
 
Unfortunately, outside of pitching and Will Smith, that draft value has not been there to play with LAD. Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and Will Smith are the only AF era LAD draft picks to make an All Star team (or Amateur Free Agents signed by LAD).
 
The Dodgers starting 9 and starting rotation include: Free Agents (7), Trades (3), IFA (2), and Draft (2). Every one of the trades then signed long term extensions. All four bench players were trade acquisitions. The bullpen consists of Free Agents (4), Trade (1), Undrafted Free Agent (1), Draft (1), and Purchase (1). 
 
Overall the 26 man is comprised of FA (11), Trades (8), Draft (3), IFA (2), UDFA (1), Purchase (1). Again three of those trades included long term extensions. I do not think it so cynical to say the biggest asset the Dodgers have is Guggenheim $$$.
 
The draft is nowhere near an exact science. Every team has their areas of expertise in analyzing amateur talent. The Dodgers know how to locate and develop pitching talent. I do not think the Dodgers’ strength is in finding elite position player talent in the draft, regardless as to where they draft. No team can be best at all phases in an organization. Where AF and his minions may miss in the amateur draft, they more than make up for in valuing and acquiring MLB talent via trade and FA, and in giving the players the best development, coaching, and analytical tools. AF rarely misses and very rarely overpays. They have the good, even though not elite, drafted players they can use in trades and the $$$ to pay for FA and extensions. It works for the Dodgers.

BTW, I promised Badger I would research and report on how each of the teams are made up by. There has been a lot of movement on the 26 man rosters, so I thought I would wait until it got closer to opening day to do my research.The rosters are very fluid right now.

Singing the Blue

With the exception of Ferris, that looks to be the exact lineup we’ll see starting against the Tigers on Thursday. Good to see Mookie and Freddie back, even if just for a few innings tonight and for the next couple of games.

I wonder, at least for the short-term future, if we’ll see Pages starting against all pitching. We don’t have a lefty hitter that can play CF or 2B who isn’t already in the lineup, so maybe the plan is to give Andy a month or two to prove he should be an every day starter.

Cassidy

Well so far he’s a poor defensive CF’er and an average hitter. As opposed to Outman who’s an above average defensive CF’er and a poor hitter. Not much hope here.

Bobby

Wow good for Jackson Ferris for getting a chance at Dodger Stadium!

Singing the Blue

Pages will never be a Gold Glove centerfielder but he’s young enough that he can improve and to my eye (a very old eye that needs pretty strong glasses) he’s already improved a bit as Spring Training has progressed. For that matter, he’s young enough that he could also easily improve as a hitter.

Please note that I’ve used the word “could” and not “would”.

Dionysus

Pages, Keekay, Edman & Rojas will all rotate. Taylor is true utilityman.

Dionysus

That’s the lineup

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