I believe we have discussed ad nauseum about where the starting pitching is at now, and where it might be next year.
It is widely reported that Walker Buehler will not start the season in the rotation, hoping to properly ramp him up for October. With that caveat, the rotation could look like:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Tyler Glasnow
- Bobby Miller
- James Paxton
- And 2 of Emmet Sheehan/Gavin Stone/Ryan Yarbrough
- Once Walker resumes his spot in the rotation, only one of Emmet Sheehan/Gavin Stone/Ryan Yarbrough will remain. The above assumes that there will be a 6-man rotation.
Dustin May is reportedly going to return around the All Star Break or Trade Deadline. But it is currently assumed he will end up in the bullpen for the remainder of this season. And probably more middle relief to keep the stress innings down until October.
Next year Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin will return to compete for the rotation. Well Ohtani will not have to compete for a spot. The 2025 rotation could look like:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Tyler Glasnow
- Bobby Miller
- Shohei Ohtani
- And two of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone
That would also assume that Walker Buehler will be allowed to walk, and I am not at all ready to make that assumption. But he will not be under contract after this season. Paxton is nothing more than a bridge to 2025. Yarbrough does not figure to stay after 2024.
Let’s not forget that Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will be free agents with Buehler. And what if Lucas Giolito goes off with Boston and he decides to opt out? And what if Shane Bieber fully recovers from whatever has been ailing him?
Now AF/BG have decisions. What to do with the two who do not make the rotation (or three if Buehler or another elite FA is signed). What happens with Nick Frasso, River Ryan, Landon Knack who will all be MLB ready during the season. That does not include Michael Grove or Kyle Hurt who are more well suited for the bullpen as long as they are with the Dodgers.
Do the Dodgers consider trading Gonsolin or May? May is the biggest gamble as he has the much higher ceiling and the much lower floor. His stuff plays very well, but can he keep cool as a starter long enough to keep the stress innings down. He has a tendency to go a million miles per hour at all times. That would work better in the pen, but his stuff is just too good to ignore.
I love competition, and let the best come to the front of the line.
It is clear that all cannot be retained by the Dodgers. To steal a line, even Ray Charles can see that. Sheehan, Stone, Frasso, Ryan, Knack, Hurt, and Grove are the last of the current wave of MLB and MLB ready pitchers in the LAD organization. Sheehan, Frasso, and Ryan are my three “Do Not Trade” pitchers.
Now for the next wave of pitchers, and there are a lot of them (I can get to the position players later). Some have been moved to relief already, and others will find themselves there.
When I looked at the Baseball America Top 30 Dodgers, I noticed a player who has been out of the top 30 for a looooong time…LHP John Rooney. Rooney was the LAD #3 draft pick out of Hofstra in 2018. He languished in obscurity while he was a starter. But since being moved to the bullpen fulltime in 2023, he has flourished. He is a LHP with perhaps the best move to 1B of any MiLB pitcher, and I would guess better than 90% MLB pitchers (a guess with no support). He is taking advantage of his specific skill set in the new “let’em run” game so well, that he is now being perceived as a potential weapon. He has also pushed his GO/AO ratio to 1.84, a poster child of a ground ball pitcher. He does give up more HRs to RH batters than he should, but that is something he can work on this year at OKC. He had a 3-1 K/BB rate. He could be the next Scott Alexander. Not a star, but a situational LHP that can be effective, especially against LH batters.
Another potential reliever who did not do well as a starter is another lefty…Alec Gamboa. Like Rooney, Gamboa just turned 27 (11 days older than Rooney). He still walks too many, but that is something he can also work on at OKC. I do not get so put off by older relievers. They are generally pitchers who did not succeed as starters and now later in their career have found a spot in the pen.
Another of those starters turned to relievers and not in the current Top 30 is RHP Carlos Duran. I have written about Duran on multiple occasions. He has a chance to become a very successful high leverage late inning reliever. He is returning from TJ surgery this year. He is currently on the OKC roster, and he has a chance to shine this year. I have been waiting for him to “arrive” for two years now. He is still only 22.
I have written quite a bit about yet another LHRP who is a converted SP…Ronan Kopp. Mark has also mentioned Kopp on multiple occasions. Kopp should start the year in Tulsa (AA), but dominating relievers (especially LHRP) have a tendency to move quickly. Kopp is only 21, so he has time to fully percolate.
One other fulltime reliever that many are high on (me not so much) is RHRP Jake Pilarski.
But when we talk about the next wave, we are really talking about potential rotation studs.
In level attained order, not in potential impact order or top prospect order:
Kendall Williams – 23 year old RHP – Williams (pictured) was a 2nd round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays. He was acquired by LAD in September 2020 in the Ross Stripling trade. One of my favorites was Strip, so naturally, I had to become a fan of Williams. I remain one. He is not in any of the LAD Top Prospect lists thus far, and I do not understand why not. He has been a better pitcher than Maddux Bruns and Peter Heubeck (two other pitchers in the next wave) and is 22 months older than Bruns (1 year baseball age) and 23 months older than Heubeck. Williams dominated at Great Lakes and pitched very well at Tulsa as a 22 year old. Bruns and Heubeck did not fare very well at all at Great Lakes. Williams reached AAA last year. However with the number of pitchers expected at OKC, he may start the year at Tulsa. But if he excels, look for a quick move to OKC. Williams has four pitch arsenal, that he can polish this year. He was not protected for the Rule 5 draft, and was not selected. I am stubborn, I still like him.
Ben Casparius – 25 year old RHP – He is another athlete who can also play the corner infield positions (maybe not well, but he did as a collegian). Casparius reached AA last year. He has a plus plus slider, but not much else. Below average fastball and change. He looks to be a prime candidate for the bullpen. I included him in this topic because there are some who believe that Casparius has a future with the Dodgers. IMO, his best value for LAD is to be packaged in a trade as a lottery ticket.
Justin Wrobleski – 23 year old LHSP – Wrobleski was my dark horse prospect last year, and he delivered (at least IMO). Wrobleski is the best LHSP prospect in the LAD organization not named Jackson Ferris. Yes, IMO, he is a better prospect than Maddux Bruns. His FB sits at 93-95 and touches 96. He has a mid-80s slider that is close to MLB ready. LAD likes their pitcher’s sliders in the 87-88 MPH range. He throws both a curve and cutter, but will probably concentrate on one of them to make his primary 3rd pitch. But can throw both for strikes. His ability to shape and manipulate his fastball negates the absolute need for a 4th pitch, but can give him a 5th pitch like Bobby Miller. He dominated at Great Lakes with 102.1 IP. 2.90 ERA, 109 K, and 35BB. He figures to get a promotion to AA to start the season as a 23 year old. He is progressing one step at a time, which seems to indicate a mid-backend starter, but also one with huge reliever risk.
Maddux Bruns – 22 year old LHSP – Bruns is the epitome of a pitcher with a big arm and ZERO control. He improved his BB/9 from over 9 to 6.22. 6.22 BB per 9 innings is not sustainable. In 76 IP at Great Lakes, Bruns had a 4.74 ERA with 93 K and 54 BB. Compare that to both Kendall Williams and Justin Wrobleski. Bruns is a big strikeout pitcher, but unless he can get his walks under control, he is not going to be a MLB starting pitcher. Yes, I know all about how wild Sandy Koufax was. But please do not include Maddux Bruns in any Koufax comparison discussion on any level. It is simply not warranted. As I wrote above, Bruns has a big arm. He has three plus pitches and an average 4th pitch. But it is the 40 control that he needs to harness. Does he have to change any of his pitches effectiveness to get that control to at least 50? I have no idea where he starts this year. He is still young enough to start at Great Lakes to get confidence, and still make AA during the season. The Dodgers still believe in the arm.
Jared Karros – 23 year old RHSP – Karros is my 2024 dark horse prospect. I am working on a piece just on Karros. As everyone knows, Jared is the son of former LAD star 1B Eric Karros. Karros is a UCLA Bruin who really did not pitch much after early in his sophomore year with a bad back. He was the Friday night pitcher (AKA top Starter on the college team) as he started his Sophomore year. BTW, if you are a Friday Night pitcher for UCLA, you are very good. Even though Karros had not pitched in more than 1.5 years, the Dodgers drafted him in the 16th round in the 2022 draft. He chose to sign with LAD instead of going back to UCLA and reestablish himself as a star, because he had always dreamed of pitching for the Dodgers. Karros did not debut in the LAD organization until 2023.
Karros started at Single A Rancho Cucamonga and finished at High A Great Lakes. He didn’t allow a run in his last 3 regular season appearances, and allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 29 innings of regular season work. He struck out 30 hitters in that span and walked just 4. He was California League Pitcher of the Month for May, and was California League Pitcher of the Week 07/02/2023. Karros is still a baby with IP. He did not start pitching until his Junior Year in High School, and missed most of his college career. He is now injury free, and he should start out the year at Great Lakes, but could move to Tulsa by mid-season. I think we could see another Karros star with the Dodgers in the next couple of years.
Peter Heubeck – 21 year old RHSP – Heubeck is another of those big arms that has not been able to put it all together yet. He was the 2nd LAD pick (3rd round) in the 2021 draft behind Maddux Bruns. Heubeck has a four pitch arsenal with his best pitch his plus curve with a down break. His fastball sits 91-93 and touches 95, but gets good vertical movement. He has a power slider that reaches 87-88 exactly where the Dodgers want it. He also has a change that is developing, but shows signs of fade and sink. Heubeck is another big strikeout pitcher with questionable control, albeit better than Bruns. His BB/9 was 4.52. Not good, but improving. Heubeck is too good and too young to give up on. He did reach Great Lakes as a 20 year old. He should start at Great Lakes, and from there???
Hyun-il Choi – 24 year old RHSP – In 2021, he was honored with the organization’s “Branch Rickey” Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. After undergoing elbow surgery and rehabilitation in 2022, Choi finished the 2023 season with a 4–5 record and 3.75 ERA in 16 games at Great Lakes. Choi is looking forward to catching up with teenage countryman RHP Hyun-Seok Jang. Choi is the opposite of Bruns and Heubeck. His control and command are better than his “stuff” at this stage of his career. This is his 6th year in the organization, so he is going to need to prove he is worthy to be kept on the MLB roster next year, or be lost to another team. I like his chances. You cannot be “Pitcher of the Year” in the LAD organization, and not have skills. He could also be a nice part of a package in a potential trade.
What happens when a 2021 minor league pitcher of the year that averages 91 starts averaging almost 94?🧐
Hyun-il Choi lifetime PR in gym last week as we get ready for spring training . @TreadHQ pic.twitter.com/FlfNZMyikZ
— Drew Hall (@DTreatss) January 25, 2024
Jackson Ferris – 20 year old LHSP – I am a Michael Busch fan, but in the long run, the Dodgers should make out far better with Ferris than they would have with a blocked Busch. Ferris and Payton Martin should be the stars of the next wave, and could have higher ceilings than any of the current wave of SP. Ferris’ has a solid to plus 3-pitch arsenal with his fastball being his best offering. His fastball sits at 92-95 and touches 97 with excellent carry. He can live at the top of the zone with his fastball. His curve is a swing and miss pitch in the mid-upper 70’s with a 12-6 break. He is also developing a mid-80’s change. Ferris struck out 77 batters in 56.0 IP, with a 3.38 ERA in his professional debut. He could start at Great Lakes, but they may want to keep him in Rancho to keep him out of the early season cold weather at Great Lakes. He is a potential 3 level pitcher in 2024.
Payton Martin – 19 year old RHSP (okay 20 year old baseball age) – I have written quite a bit about Payton Martin. He has the makings of a top of the rotation pitcher who is just learning his trade. He was committed to East Carolina as a SS. The Dodgers loved his athleticism and decided to draft him in the 17th round as a pitcher. He signed for $125,000. He has already reached #10 on a couple of lists. The Dodgers are being extra careful with Martin who has not pitched much. As a 19 year old he skipped rookie ball in the ACL and moved directly to Rancho. At Rancho, even though a very limited sample size (14 games, 12 starts, 39.2 IP), Martin dominated California League hitters. He had a 2.04, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .213 BAA. Pretty impressive for a 19 year old converted SS pitching full time for the first time. He is another who should start at Rancho and stay out of the cold weather for the early months at Great Lakes. With two 20 year old starting pitchers with the ability of Ferris and Martin, the next wave could crest very high.
Jesus Tillero – 17 year old (18 on May 2) RHSP – Signed January 15, 2023, from Venezuela, at $497,500. While it is difficult to get overly excited about a teenager in the DSL, what Tillero did last year in the DSL went above and beyond routine following. He has a plus fastball that sits 94-95 and touches 97 (at 17) with excellent vertical break. He has an above average slider that should get considerably better under the Dodgers tutelage. He is developing a change, that should get better.
Tillero started 10 games and pitched 30.2 IP. He compiled a 1.47 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a .170 BAA. He had 34 strikeouts and 6 walks. He did not allow a HR. He also has a 50 control which is verified by his walk total, and his command is also positive with the below average batting against. He is 2 years younger than either Ferris or Martin, and could match their accomplishments at their same age. If he does, that will make 3 solid potential LAD starters in the next wave. Then again, he could be a bust, but I do not think so.
Hyun-Seok Jang – 19 year old (20 in March) RHSP – Jang was the #1 Korean High School pitcher, and decided to sign with the Dodgers rather than face the KBO draft where he was sure to be the #1 pick. The Dodgers chose not to pitch him at all in 2023. He was assigned to one of the two DSL teams just as a place to assign him. Jang has 3 plus pitches (fastball, curve, slider, with a 50 change and control). He sits 93-95 and touches 97, at 19. As I said yesterday, there is no reason to believe he cannot be another Chan Ho Park or Hyun-jin Ryu. We will get our first look at Jang this year. Will it be in the ACL or will it be at Rancho? Jang is the fourth teenager who could become a top of the rotation SP once he fully develops and matures.
Brady Smith – 19 year old RHP – Smith was the third round pick by the Dodgers last draft. Same round as Dustin May (2016), Ryan Pepiot (2019), John Rooney (2018), and Peter Heubeck (2021). He did not pitch for the Dodgers in 2023. He is another athlete who got a late start to his senior baseball season due to his basketball season. Smith has a plus upper 70 MPH curve. Last year his fastball sat at 91-93 topping at 95 with arm side run. He has a low 80’s slider that he will need to get up to 87-88. He has 50 control. But that was as a part time baseball player/pitcher. Without basketball, he will be able to concentrate on pitching. He is also skinny for his 6’2” frame. Smith will be worth watching to monitor how he physically and pitching matures. Now that he is solely pitching, maybe he will take a Payton Martin move…or maybe not.
A couple of other pitchers of note:
Jerming Rosario – Made Great Lakes as a 21 year old from the DR. 67.0 IP at GL with a 4.70 ERA with 82 strikeouts and 33 walks. Rosario. has always been a favorite of mine. He was signed the same year as was Diego Cartaya. Rosario turns 22 in May. He still has time, but with the talent ahead of him, it will probably not be with the Dodgers. Rosario is not considered a legit LAD prospect, but I like him, so I can include him.
Edgardo Henriquez – He is 21 (22 in June) who is returning from TJ surgery. He will continue as a SP. His fastball was a plus pitch that sat at 94-98 and topped out at 100. He also has the makings of a plus slider and average curve. He is another hard thrower with minimal control. He does have a lot of relief risk, but with a plus pitch, above average 2nd pitch, and average 3rd pitch, he will continue to start, until he doesn’t. I look forward to watching both Henriquez and Carlos Duran as they come back from TJ surgery.
There are others very much on the fringe that I will be watching this year. Those will eventually have to be converted to relief to be a viable pitcher in the LAD organization.
The Dodgers have plenty of pitching talent to cover until the next wave starts to break.
Sheehan, Stone, Frasso, Hurt, Kopp are my “Do Not Trade” pitchers. Ryan and Knack are not “Do Not Trade” and I have no interest in Grove.
I didn’t want the Dodgers to get Paxton because I wanted my “Do Not Trade” starters to get their shots and I would have liked the Dodgers to trade Ferguson who’s in his last year and I didn’t want Kelly signed because I wanted my “Do Not Trade relievers to have room to be called upon for the bullpen when injuries happen.
Excellent roundup. Looking ahead, the top-shelf could also feature Roki Sasaki. As somebody put it, the Dodgers could have “The Three Samurai.”
I always forget about Rooney. Excellent point, I think, about how his pick-off move could be useful with the new rules. I like relievers who induce grounders and I hope he gets his chance. Certainly he’s paid his dues.
Does the Dodgers brain trust covet an RP like Tanner Scott or a potential closer like Devin Williams? I have no idea. But the Dodgers certainly have the trade capital to pull off a deal.
The Mariners just swapped four guys to get Jorge Polanco from the Twins to play 2B, including two pitchers who should make the ML roster. An overpay? Perhaps. But not if Polanco lifts the Mariners to the playoffs. (A few weeks ago, while pondering Lux’s ability to play SS, I thought the Dodgers might go consider Polanco as a fallback and UT option.)
Before the Dodgers signed Paxton, I was comfortable with an overpay to land Luzardo. While the Mariners want to make the playoffs, the Dodgers want to win the World Series.
The rotation seems pretty set now–at least until the next round of injuries.
Thank you for all that research and information Jeff. Pitching wise, the Dodgers appear to be in great shape for the future.
Great article. Treinen and Feyereisen are both questionable after coming off arm surgeries and Kelly will need to be treated with “kid gloves” with his oft injured and sore arm.
I suspect we’ll see plenty of the kids this year with the likes of Hurt, Grove, Knack, Stone, Frasso , Ryan all good candidates to get called up at some point for a spot start or significant contribution in the pen.
Pitchers and catchers soon.
I think we will learn this season if Gavin Stone is a starter or a reliever. Can he make his slider a plus pitch or not? That will determine it.
Pepiot improved his command. I think Stone can too. I have him as a starter all the way. They don’t all need to be aces.
A starter, a reliever…. or a trade chip.
A couple months back, we were speculating that a blockbuster could target Burnes.
I have to believe that AF was exploring the option. To me, the best SP trade targets were Burnes first, Cease second and Glasnow third. (It didn’t seem that Luzardo was on the market, but he might be the best of the bunch.)
Anyway, the Rays were motivated to dump Glasnow’s and Margot’s salaries, and AF really didn’t have to give up too much to swing the deal–and Glasnow, a Santa Clarita boy, soon signed long-term with his hometown team. Burnes is by far the more accomplished pitcher, but Glasnow proved to be the do-able deal.
After the Dodgers added Yamamoto, the desire for Burnes or Cease diminished but didn’t totally disappear. But Chicago asked for too much, and it seemed that Milwaukee would hold on to Burnes to stay competitive in a weak division. And they just got stronger by adding Hoskins.
And now they decide to trade Burnes? Strange timing.
Weren’t the Orioles supposed to get Cease?
If I was a Brewers fan I’d be ticked.
I’m not pining for Burnes at this point, but I still think he’s better than Glasnow. and I wonder the Dodgers brass made a serious offer for him. (Or him + Adames.)
I’m not optimistic about the health of the Dodgers rotation. When midseason rolls around, maybe Luzardo will be on the market.
Informative post Jeff. Nice work.
I too look at that list and wonder which two or three pitchers will remain and be promoted to our big league club. I have no clue who among those pitching below AA are in the plans, but obviously there are names that keep popping out.
I was a Duran fan until he went down. Ryan, Martin, Knack, Hurt and Frasso are at the top of my list. But every year the Dodgers do a Paxton move that blocks somebody.
I like the idea of May being a late inning reliever, maybe even a closer. My intuit tells me to keep a close eye on those Asian pitchers.
I believe limiting Buehler’s innings is a good idea. In fact, as hard as all these guys throw I like the idea of limiting every pitchers innings. That to me is the safest way to insure the October squad is well rested
I also see Bruns and Ferris similarly. Ferris has a higher floor, while Bruns has a higher ceiling.
Any idea who gets traded first?
I just want Ferris and Buehler in the rotation at the same time.
In a doubleheader.
In Chicago.
I think that is a fair statement. Bruns is a better thrower, while Ferris is the better pitcher, as of right now. I have never been high on Bruns as a SP. He has a grade of 40 for control, and I think that is overly generous. When you walk more than one an inning for a full season, which he did in 2021 and 2022, that is not sustainable. Last year he “improved” all the way to 6.22 BB per 9 innings. Was that the cost of losing 2.5 K per 9 innings over 2022? He has 3 plus pitches when he can control them, which makes your higher ceiling comment fair.
Last year at Rancho he had excellent ERA, but he allowed more walks than hits. 13 walks in 21.0 IP. He had 54 walks in 76 IP at Great Lakes. For his career he has 119 walks in 146.1 IP. If he ever does get his control at an acceptable level, with 3 plus pitches (and 1 average) he will be considered a top of the rotation level pitcher. Until then, he has HUGE relief risk.
Ferris had better K/9 and BB/9 numbers. While Bruns had 3 pitches with a grade of 60, Ferris has 1 at 60 and 2 at 55. But his control has a grade of 45.
Bruns is 18 months older than Ferris.
Jeff, this is my favorite piece you’ve ever written. Just phenomenal. Will probably be the best ten minutes of my day, reading this and drinking my first cup of coffee. Cheers.
Thank you!!!
Duran supposedly has an elite slider.
Any chance Tillero starts at Rancho?
System is loaded with ams. Ferris is a really nice edition.
Unrelated, even though Busch is a better prospect, DeLuca is the guy we might miss more from a depth standpoint.
Duran has an outstanding slider. Before the TJ he had a 70 slider and 60 fastball. At 6’7″ 230 pounds, he has late inning high leverage reliever written all over. But he still has work to do. His 4-seamer was at 98 but has very little movement, so unless his command is spot on, he gets hit. Before the injury he was working more with a 2-seamer that had good sink. Let’s see what he works on this year.
Maybe this has been asked, but just curious has traffic picked up on this site since Mark closed the doors?
I am missing LADODGERTALK but I am warming up to this site as well.
We all want the same thing a 2024 WS Championship.
A lot of the former posters have come over to Jeff’s site.
Seems like it.
Excellent Jeff. Much appreciated information on players I know little about. I think Buehler’s innings will be monitored, but knowing Butane, I think he is in the rotation from the get-go. He has been holding himself back long enough and he knows this is his free agent year. I don’t think he will take to kindly to being held back too much. Report on google sports this morning that the Dodgers are still in on Brasier.
Awesome write up Jeff. Thanks for all the info. It will be interesting to see if Sasaki will want to team up with Ohtani and Yamamoto. His stuff is mind boggling. If he does come on board then I think AF should package some of our young pitching for a young stud outfielder.
I’m exhausted. And, I am that way from just reading all the information presented. Great workout Jeff. Drink some Gatorade and take a cool down walk.
Seattle did what I still hope the Dodgers will be able to do when they traded four for one.
The Orioles team has been valued at $1.725 billion, nearly 10 times the original price. And a Baltimore Banner report that Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. will be part of the ownership group will only add to the fan excitement.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has released his 100 top prospects ($$$$)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39420988/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-jackson-holliday-jackson-chourio
Cinco Dodgers made the list:
DePaula: McDaniel cites the recent slate of Intl signings and writes, “De Paula appears to be the best of the group right now and the buzz is that he’s the only untouchable prospect in the Dodgers’ system.
Rushing: Again the fact about how far Rushing fell in the draft is mentioned, as well as: If he can catch every day — which is still a maybe but he should be at least acceptable behind the plate — then he could be a top five-to-seven catcher in the game.”
Cartaya: One of the world’s best in his age group for years, Cartaya had a down season but still looks like a long-term starter
Frasso: He is yet another of the late bloomers or unexpected risers to come out of the Dodgers’ pitching factory who should all be showing up in the majors during the 2024 season. There might have been a dozen future major leaguers in an incredible group pitched together in Double-A in 2023.
Pages: Plus power, patience and arm strength in a classic right-field profile
I have been writing about De Paula for well over a year when he wasn’t even a thought on most sites. And now he has made it to the top of Kiley McDaniels LAD prospect list, and #68 overall. He is that impressive. His problem is that he truly is a DH. It is not that he can be hidden defensively. He is a liability in the field. But his bat is impressive. And the power will come once he fully develops. It was not there in the beginning for Yordan Álvarez either. He is the current version of Álvarez. But the Dodgers do not need a DH for the next 10 years, so he is going to need to play in the field. Stick him in LF this year, and leave him there. Let him learn on the fly.
Pages is the RF in 2025. Mark it down.
That AA Tulsa team had a great roster of pitchers. They all just moved on and the team was left with no pitching and no offense. They were the only LAD affiliate to not make the playoffs. Yet they were considered one of the very best MiLB teams in recent history when the season began.
Is it certain that Ohtani won’t play any outfield? If he does, that would give some at bats at DH or others.
He won’t this year for sure. Not after having that surgery.
Ohtani would certainly be a better OF. If Ohtani never pitches again, he would certainly play OF. I just do not know how much pitchers can play OF between starts and still be a CY caliber pitcher. I guess if anyone can, it would be Ohtani.
With Ohtani’s speed and athleticism, I think he might play some CF in 2025.
There you go again, trying to make Outman a 4th outfielder…
FWIW, our man Outman has been rated as the game’s 6th best centerfielder by mlb.com. Seems a bit high to me, but I think they were right to rank Freddie as the best at 1B and Mookie best at 2B. They also ranked Will Smith 2nd at catcher, Max 8th at 3B and Teoscar 8th at RF–though I think he’ll play more LF for the Dodgers. Lux did not make the top ten at SS
I don’t think they’ve rated DH yet, but I think it’s safe to assume that the Dodgers lineup will feature three best-at-position at the top, probably followed by a No.2.
Outman, I think, is certainly in the top ten, but sixth?
If he can improve upon his rookie season with the .790 OPS, perhaps he’ll move into the top 5.
DePaula: Check (I have heard comparisons with Delwyn Young’s glove)
Pages: Check (Caveat:He stays slim)
Fun fact? If you overlook time zones, River Ryan and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were born on the exact same day.
I’m sorry, but I’m unwilling to overlook time zones. They were born on successive days and that will also explain why Yamamoto is so much wealthier than Ryan.
Just announced that the guaranteed amount on the Paxton contract has been revised downward from 11 mil to 7 mil although the max with bonuses based on innings pitched, etc. is still at 13 mil.
The downward revision is based on “unspecified health concerns”.
Somebody tell Frasso, Knack, Stone and Ryan to stay ready.
That makes sense. Paxton has been a solid gold star member of the IL for several years now.
Paxton is a $7 Million dollar dope-fiend bet! If you have the money, it’s worth the risk… especially when you have minor-league options.
STB, did you make the trek to your local Jack In The Box?
STB is the person in the red shirt. He volunteers there so he can get free tacos.
I certainly would have gone over there had I known about it.
If my arm was in better shape I could literally throw a baseball from my backyard to the center where that JBox is located (slight exaggeration, it’s about 4-5 blocks away).
If I had managed to get there, I would have told all 3 guys you’re working on a trade to send all of them plus Barnes to KC for Sal Perez and the ghost of Zack Greinke.
There’s a Taco Bell in Porter Ranch?
Guilty.
I hope you won’t hold that against me.
We have a Whole Foods and an Amazon Fresh also.
Whole Foods yes. Amazon Fresh sure. LaDolce Vita and Lorenzo’s of course. But a Taco Bell in Porter Ranch?
A lot of minor signings by teams and the Orioles have been sold. I finally got my antibiotic for my urinary tract infection. Starting to feel better already.
Watch out! The Orioles are going to become a beast! This year!
Agreed. Rubenstein is not as brazen as Cohen, but he will find a way of getting players Angelos would not (not since Chris Davis). He takes over control of the team once the team is sold, but there could be a wink wink between Rubenstein and the Angelos family to get certain things done before that time. The Dylan Cease talks are heating up, and while the price is steep (as has been discussed), it would not hurt Baltimore. But they are all just speculation. No trades have been broached by believable journalists from sources. Can they sign Snell or Montgomery? They have so much room for payroll. They have been less than $100MM since 2018 when they were at $149MM.
Baltimore has the best farm system prospects in MLB, and many of them are blocked. They are in the best position to get a Dylan Cease trade done, but only if CWS wants to. As of now, they do not.
But Baltimore is going to become a power, maybe in the model of Houston. A lot of young controllable players. And now $$$.
They should sign one of Snell or Montgomery while they’re waiting for the Sox to make up their mind about Cease. They could easily do a signing and a trade.
Nice to see Ripken is part of the new ownership group along with former NBA great Grant Hill and just to add a little money to the pot, Michael Bloomberg.
Baltimore is truly back on the baseball map. Good for them.
Or maybe they should trade for Burnes!
What a great move, even if Burnes is only under contract for a year.
He’s the true ace the Orioles need–better than Snell or Montgomery, I think– and they dealt from their depth to make it happen.
If Burnes helps lead the Orioles to a title, the fans will expect him to be signed long-term.
They already won 101. How much better will they get signing Snell? 105?
Glad they’re in the AL. Good luck Yankees!
After the Dodgers and Angels, I root for the long-suffering Orioles.
If we can’t have a true Freeway Series in October (definitely not this season), I’d love to see a Dodgers-Orioles World Series rematch–to avenge the ’66 sweep.
Everything went perfect last year for Baltimore to win 101 games. You like projections.
They need a front line pitcher. Baltimore execs and every sports journalist recognizes that.
Kyle Bradish was their Ace last year. He lost to Andrew Heaney in Game 1, that was scheduled to be a bullpen game/piggyback with Dane Dunning. I consider myself fairly astute when it comes to all teams/players in MLB, and I had to look up what Bradish did last year. He ended up #4 in CY vote.
Then the wheels came off in Games 2 and 3. Game 2 Grayson Rodriguez allowed 5 earned runs on 1.2 IP against Jordan Montgomery. Game 3 was even worse. Baltimore started Dean Kremer who also lasted 1.2 IP but allowed 6 earned runs against Nathan Eovaldi.
As of now the O’s rotation:
They are currently projected to be 90-92 wins. As we Dodgers fans have come to realize, it’s not the162 game schedule, but it is October that you need to focus the roster for. Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell go along way in helping that roster…in October.
Here is a synopsis of the Orioles FanGraphs ZIPS projections by the Orioles’ SBNation site. They came to the same conclusion…they need an ACE. Spend!!!
https://www.camdenchat.com/2023/11/28/23978124/orioles-zips-projections-2024
Hard to know of course but I read a power ranking in early January that had them 4th. They will add pitching, probably soon, and be able to make moves at the deadline. I’m pulling for them.
Among the Dodger giveaways this season will be two Ohtani bobbleheads, a Yamamoto bobble and another Betts. The cheapest ticket for opening day is a general admission ticket in the nosebleed section. Cost: 302 dollars. A little rich for my blood.
I can’t even afford a hot dog and a beer much less the ticket!
I will just watch the game on MLB.tv and make myself a chili dog. Do not drink beer.
Go the next day, you will be able to get tickets for $45
In yet another example of what batting metrics are achieved at AAA are more often than not , not achieved at MLB. Came across this posting following a trade of LAA’s Trey Cabbage to Houston in exchange for a very low level pitching prospect.
With much hesitation I am providing a link to what I think is an honest and objective article on the drug issue in San Francisco.
Please don’t let it become a distraction from why we come to this Dodgers blog. Hopefully the only comments it generates is nothing more than saying “interesting” or “ho hum”.
Not surprised one bit.
A 30 second google search on opioid deaths revealed this:
Here is a list of the top 10 rates are per 100,000 people:
Can we give the bias a rest please?
The fact that they aren’t the highest in the country doesn’t negate a 300%+ increase in 5 years. Having lived in CA my entire life, it’s shocking how things have changed in the last decade. LA and SF are not the same cities. Property crime has gone off the charts. And largely goes unpunished.I have lost count how many friends have had their businesses robbed, broken into and vandalized in the last few years. Drug use and drug sales are now right out in the open. The number of transients has blown up, especially the aggressive mentally ill verity. It’s undeniably different, in even smaller cities, than just a decade ago.
The how and why may involve political bias. But the fact that it’s changed does not. I’ve spent time in SF for work in the past couple years. I now avoid the downtown like the plague. Something I would not have done 10 years ago. I’ll stay in Mountain View or Palo Alto. You couldn’t pay me enough to stay in downtown SF.
The impact on how MLB players view signing with a team based on this is likely overblown. But it’s real. They are parents too.
Doesn’t seem to bother the Warriors or Forty Niners from attracting talented players.
And that’s why I think the premise is generally overblown as far as pro athletes are concerned. But it depends on the individual.
Agree with the overall premise Jayne. The downhill slide in cities everywhere has been going on for a while now. I believe it’s getting better. And the wealthy all live in the safer districts. That hasn’t changed, so baseball players are above it everywhere. I very much doubt many of the professional players for SF teams live in the city.
Webb is mad because what Buster said is true.
SF is a very beautiful and amazing city, with very bad areas as well. You can’t ignore it when the downtown is dying.
I thought Joan Bias was dead, lol.
Why post it, then? I’m honestly not quite sure what point you’re even trying to make.
Yes, drug overdoses and addiction due to Fentanyl and other drugs are, if not skyrocketing, then have risen dramatically, especially in larger cities, and most especially in those particular cities where drug use, crime, and homelessness are tolerated. The overdoses that you cite in that graph, as a statistic, correlate highly with drug use, property crime, vagrancy, homelessness and general chaos and misery.
I remember the furor in the 80s over the crack epidemic. Fentanyl is worse. We don’t really talk about it.
And I don’t know why this issue is even political, but it is, just like everything else. I’d probably be labelled a big meanie and generally bad person who gets up on the wrong side of the bed for merely ascribing bad outcomes (if those bad outcomes actually exist and are not figments of “bias”) to bad policies.
So, it’s not really a problem. It’s getting better. Saying there is a problem means one is consuming the wrong kind of media and is a bad person. I’m a really good person. I can say that safely ensconced in my Orange County suburb.
Meanwhile, Santa Monica, once upon a time, was a breathtakingly beautiful city, with an eclectic and quirky vibe – a mixture of freedom loving counter-culture and creative affluence. https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/santa-monica-labeled-as-one-of-the-most-unsafe-cities-in-california/
There is a documentary I think was excellent. It was very fair, I thought, and shocked me because it was produced by the local news outlet in Seattle, KOMO. It’s called Seattle is Dying. In my opinion, it’s what journalism used to be and ought to be – objective and unflinching.
Great article Jeff. I’m bookmarking this to refer back as ST comes closer. I haven’t been as active at minor league games as I was when my son was younger. But I’m hoping Rancho sees some of the better young prospects this year. Many have either skipped Rancho all together or have only played there briefly since they moved the CA league to Low A.
Can’t wait for baseball to begin.
If, for some reason, Gavin Lux is not able to cut it at shortstop, I have a great recommendation. This guy has a great arm (which we knew already) and great footwork (who knew?).
Kenny Rosenthal reporting the O’s are closing in on a deal for Burnes.
Can hardly wait to see what the Brewers get back in return.
Ortiz (#7) and Hall (#6)… at least!
But wait, there’s more….
I told you that Baltimore was going to be a beast.
I would not be surprised if they added Cease and Clase, as well!
They are going to be all in.
Ortiz, Hall and the # 34 pick in next year’s draft. The pick is a Competitive Balance A draft choice.
I will not comment on a politically baited question on someone else’s site. So, there is that! &%#%#@!
Milwaukee is also acquiring a Competitive Balance Round A draft choice, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). According to Feinsand, the full trade is Ortiz, Hall and the #34 overall pick in next year’s draft for Burnes.
Looks like Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and a comp round draft pick.
Comments, Jeff? I think the Brewers did very nicely here for just one year of Burnes.
Now, maybe they’ll think about sending Devin Williams to L.A…………for ??????
Vargas, Barnes and Yarbrough…just a thought. Dodgers using the way-back machine for bobbleheads this year. They will be giving away a Dusty Baker, Matt Kemp and Sandy Koufax bobbleheads. This is also the first time I can remember that no Kershaw bobbles are on the list.
Nothing says they can’t schedule a CK bobblehead at a later date, once they find out if he’s going to make it back this year.
The Trade Simulator says your deal passes the test, but it would also work without Barnes and Yarbrough (Barnes has slight negative value and Yarbrough is pretty much neutral). I guess it all depends on what each front office REALLY thinks of Vargas’ potential. Williams at the back of the pen sure sounds nice.
By the way the Simulator also says tonight’s Burnes trade works on their system.
So, I have been very busy putting our house up for sale. We have lived here for almost 20 years, and it is home, but my wife wants a bigger house for all the kids (5) and grandkids (7 and counting), so Happy Wife, Happy Life. Here’s the link if you want to move to Indy (we actually have an offer from someone in NoCal):
https://search.truebloodre.com/listing-detail/1138953819/9221_Log_Run_DR_S-Indianapolis-IN?listingSort=RELEVANCE&layoutType=map&mapType=list&page=1&pageSize=24&isSearching=true&siteId=6641&listingSource=all%20listings&zoom=10&mapSearch=false&timeline=true&listingSortOptions=%5B%7B%22label%22%3A%22Default%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22RELEVANCE%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Price-High%20To%20Low%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22PRICE_DESC%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Price-Low%20To%20High%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22PRICE_ASC%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Newest%20Listings%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22MLS_LIST_DATE_L_DESC%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Beds%20(Most)%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22BEDROOMS_DESC%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Baths%20(Most)%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22BATHS_DESC%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Year%20Built%20(Newest)%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22BUILT_YEAR_DESC%22%7D%2C%7B%22label%22%3A%22Square%20Feet%20(Biggest)%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22SQFT_DESC%22%7D%5D&timezone=GMT-0500&source=search&fbclid=IwAR34bf3mRq7VwamusS6K9tPFw-mVQMUi1bpcw9tixkB0yoTNjYKW4uAM0gU
What would this house go for in California?
Jeff, I’ll give you a commission if someone buys it from this blog. 😉
Wow Mark, you’re selling everything. When are you selling the business and retiring?
Not selling the business. My wife and son are all 33% owners, and he is gradually buying us out. We are also considering going public. I still work 40-50 hours a week. It’s not work…
We are buying a house twice as big with a 3,000 sq/ft carriage house on 3.5 acres.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1104-W-Greencastle-Rd-Mooresville-IN-46158/85606053_zpid/
Looks beautiful Mark. Enjoy it.
Amazing what you can buy if you’re in the business of selling water.
Imagine what you could have afforded if you’d been selling booze all these years. 😎
Only one problem, once you get a few more years down the road you may regret all those stairs. Of course you could always install an elevator.
What makes you think I don’t already regret the stairs? 😉
I will take it!!!
Write the check… minus the commission. 😉
Where I live ballpark figure is $600 per sq ft.
Well, it’s location, location, location, but we spend an average of 12-15 hours in our home each day…
Problem is, the Brewers have just signed Rhys Hoskins to play 1B, Ortiz to play 3B, and already have Turang to play 2B. They are loaded in the OF, which will allow them to use Christian Yelich as a DH. Vargas is not going to get LAD Devin Williams or anyone else of value from the Brewers. It is going to take a SP. Who is willing to trade Gavin Stone for 2 years of Williams? They might be able to use Ryan Yarbrough as well.
I am willing to trade Stone for 2 years of Williams and I’d add Yarbrough to the deal as well if that would do it.
I was at the gym when this trade went down. I really like Joey Ortiz. He will probably play 3B this year and then take over SS in 2025. But he was blocked in Baltimore. DL Hall steps into the Brewers rotation this year. The Brewers pick up two players who will be regulars for the next 6 years and the 34th pick in next year’s draft (a 2nd 1st round pick) for one year of Corbin Burnes. Baltimore gets their Ace for 2024, and the Brewers have improved overall. Both teams did very well. This is the way trades are supposed to work. With new ownership, Burnes could be signed long term next winter.
Milwaukee could very well trade Devin Williams now. Their chances at the 2024 WS did not get better with the loss of Burnes. I am sure AF/BG will check in.
This was a HUGE move for Baltimore!
The Brewers will likely move Adames and Williams.
The Dodgers will have an interest in both. However, it should not be lost on anyone that Evan Phillips is ranked #4 among MLB Relief Pitchers.
Williams is #1, but even David Bednar is #8, but every Dodger fan seems to want him. Why?
I’ll tell you why: The grass is always greener…
I still think Adames will be a Dodger.
With DL Hall, Milwaukee now has 6 Top 100 prospects. Ortiz just out of the top 100, but is a former top 100 prospect (2023).