There is a lot to be thankful for this year. I am 73 and still ticking. I have a great family. While my introverted personality does not allow for a lot of friends, I do have enough great friends that I know I can count on. I have been writing for a blog as an author for the last 9 seasons, the last 4 with my own LA Dodger Chronicles, something I never thought I would have done. And I am very thankful for all of you who visit the site, especially those who respond and keep things active and lively.
I am currently in the process of determining if I want to make it ten years. It is frustrating at times, and apparently it shows too often with my sarcasm for some. It is costly ($4K – $5K per year) for hosting and maintenance charges. As the last few weeks can attest, I know I do not have the most reliable host and maintenance team. If I was still in my auditing days, my recommendation would be to fire me and hire someone who knows anything about maintaining a blog.
I have contemplated putting my domain up for sale, but I doubt that I would get anything for it. I have not put out the $$$ to capture the right SEO’s that drive a successful site.
As most of you know, Mark asked Bear if he would like to write for his site and Bear has accepted the invitation. Bear will continue to write here as long as the site remains active with me. Mark has also asked me to come back and write with him. I have not yet accepted the invitation, but it is an open invitation from Mark.
I am not ready to “retire” from this endeavor. And while this year has been more frustrating than the other years, writing gives me a purpose. Do I want to return to LADT where I wrote for five years, or to spend the $$$ and continue with MY BLOG, LADC? Mark says that I will be accepted back, but I am not as sure. I know there are many there that do not like my style, just like there are those on LADC that do not like Mark’s style.
Many there think I am ungrateful for me leaving LADT and everything that Mark did for me. For those individuals, it was not a one-way street. I helped Mark as well while I was there.
Thus, while I am thankful, I am also a person of faith, and I will pray on this decision.
Okay enough of that. Here is my take on the Tucker and Bichette FA drama.
For those still pining for Kyle Tucker, I have to assume that $$$ should not be any kind of obstacle. All pertinent publications project Tucker to sign for a 10 or 11 year contract. The AAV’s range from $32.7MM to $43MM. The Dodgers have said they will not give another OF a 10 or more year contract. They broke that mold with Mookie. But Tucker is not yet signed, so the Dodgers are still a consideration. Here is how some of those publications see the Tucker saga unveiled.
- MLBTR – 11 years, $400MM, $36.4MM AAV
- Jim Bowden (The Athletic) – 10 years, $427MM, $42.7MM AAV
- Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) – 11 years, $418MM, $38MM AAV
- Bleacher Report – 10 years, $360MM, $36MM AAV
- Just Baseball – 10 years, $43MM, $43MM AAV
- Baseball America – 11 years, $360MM, $32.7MM AAV
Baseball America is more expert in grading prospects, both professional and amateur. I am not sure that expertise flows to established MLB free agents, so we can eliminate that one on the low side. I know very little about Just Baseball. They do have interesting podcasts, but their overall baseball acumen and contacts are questionable. So we can eliminate them. That being said, I wish I had their platform.
The other 4 range from $36MM to $42.7MM AAV. Spotrac reports market values for all free agents, and provides the market value for Tucker:
Market Value
- 10 years, $401,794,710
- Avg. Salary: $40,179,471
It looks like Tucker is going to command 10 years in the $400MM range. If that were the contract, Tucker would need to average 5 fWAR over the next 10 years to justify it. Tucker has never registered a 5.0 fWAR in his career. He got close with a 4.9 in three seasons, and has exceeded 4.2 for each of the last 5 years.
Tucker currently has accumulated a 25.4 fWAR thus far in his career. If he averages a 5.0 fWAR over ten years, he will have 75.4 fWAR in his career. That’s 1st ballot HOF. Assume he averages 4.0 fWAR over the next ten years, that is 10 years $320MM. That also gets him into the HOF. If he were to continue with his 4.9fWAR for the next 10 years, that equates to $392MM, 10 year contract.
For those that want Kyle Tucker, what is your top $$$ contract? Is he a 1st ballot HOF? Is he a HOF player at all or just below that tier? I have already said that I am not in favor of signing Tucker, but there are plenty who think the Dodgers need to make him a priority.
Something else to think about. Anthony Rendon and LAA are looking to come to an agreement where Rendon can retire before the start of 2026. Rendon was on his way to having a stellar career when he signed his 7 year $245MM FA contract with LAA. Through 2019 (age 29) with Washington, his fWAR was 30, which is higher than Tucker’s 25.4. It could easily come crashing down. I do not anticipate it, and most MLB teams are not going to shy away because of what might happen. But it is a consideration.
Then there is Bo Bichette. The Dodgers had their chance at Bichette in the 2016 draft. Instead they drafted Gavin Lux, Jordan Sheffield, and Mitch White over Bichette. To be fair, they also drafted Will Smith before Toronto drafted Bichette. 2016 was considered a very good draft for LAD, but just how good could it have been had they selected Bichette over Lux, as I posited that they should do before the 2016 draft?
If Bichette still believes he is a MLB SS, and will only sign with teams who also believe that, then the Dodgers should pass. But if he was willing to move to 2B or 3B, the Dodgers could very well be in on him.
Bo Bichette’s Market Value per Spotrac:
- 8 years, $186,426,728
- Avg. Salary: $23,303,341 2.91 fWAR
Other predictions:
- MLBTR – 8 years, $208MM, $26MM AAV (average 3.25 fWAR)
- Jim Bowden (The Athletic) – 7 years, $189MM, $27MM (average 3.375 fWAR)
- Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) – 5 years, $130MM, $26MM AAV (average 3.25 fWAR)
- Bleacher Report – 7 years, $210MM, $30MM AAV (average 3.75 fWAR)
4 of the last 5 years , Bichette has exceeded each of those fWAR values. He is entering his age 28 season, 7-8 years should not be a concern.
IMO, if he is in the $26MM to $27MM AAV, he is re-signing with Toronto. He came up with Vlad Jr., and they want to continue to play together. Bo is beloved in Toronto. If I were making decisions in Toronto, I would choose Bichette over Tucker. There is noise out there, that Toronto believes they can sign both.
I do not believe that the Dodgers will sign either Tucker or Bichette, but if the Florida raised Bichette is willing to move to Los Angeles for the next 7-8 years, I would heartily welcome him. I just do not see him leaving Toronto.
Jeff, do you believe that the Jays signing Cease will impact them resigning Bichette? They have a solid defensive SS with Giminez, and two kids, Barger and Clement, who handled 2nd and 3rd pretty well while he was out. They have plenty of offense even without Bichette.
Jeff, do you believe that the Jays signing Cease will impact them resigning Bichette? They have a solid defensive SS with Giminez, and two kids, Barger and Clement, who handled 2nd and 3rd pretty well while he was out. They have plenty of offense even without Bichette. Yes, I am writing on Mark’s site, but not as much as I post here, especially in the offseason. While I am out in California, I won’t be writing much at all. Hard to do research on my laptop.
I think it will be very difficult to replace Bichette’s bat. If they were willing to spend $400MM++ on Tucker and some FA pitchers, they can certainly afford Bichette. It might come down to the number of years. If they gave Cease 7 years, will they give Bichette 8?
I know the Dodgers won’t give another outfielder a 10 year or more contract, which is exactly why I don’t think Tucker is an option.
Mookie was signed as an outfielder but now he’s a very good SS. Whoda thunk it?
Technically, Mookie was traded for and then signed an extension. But your point is valid.
I agree with Bear. Mookie is on his way to Cooperstown, and that contract does not look like it will age well. I think AF may have a different belief set right now on 10+ year deals for OF.
I think I knew that. No one expected the move, but considering how they have had to plug in players at SS after the Lux project failed, it has been an astute move.
I think the Cease contract may take Toronto out of the pricier Tucker market, but not the Bichette market.
Bo may be more eager to stay because the Cease signing shows that ownership is clearly committed to winning. The Blue Jays came oh-so-close. They’re young and getting better while the Dodgers are right to worry about their aging roster.
I could see the Yankees pursuing Bo to replace Volpe at SS and also do damage to the Jays.
Might as well. Push the AAV down.
I can only imagine how difficult managing a blog might be in today’s world. Whatever you decide Jeff I want to thank you for your work here.
Though I do find them annoying, I have learned to ignore ads on websites. If necessary, you could go that route
That said, I have found at this point in my life I have little tolerance of boorish, discourteous know-it-alls, so if this place shuts down I will probably hang it up.
Tucker. Bichette. I like the thought of Bichette in Dodger Blue but I think he stays where he is. I also think Tucker is just what the Dodgers need but in the end his production likely won’t match the dollar figure. I think it’s possible for what five years of him in this lineup would mean for the team the Dodgers might be willing to swallow the last few years of another contract. They already have a few of those.
How to keep going deep in the playoffs? This coming year I like Wilyer Abreu if he’s made available. What I don’t think they will do is trust one of their own. That tactic hasn’t worked so well lately. Im also still all in on Suarez for the pen
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Jeff you’ve created a wonderful place here for proper baseball discussion, where I feel like I learn something new everyday from the very knowledgeable posters as well as the excellent content from yourself and Michael.
It must be very frustrating at times when you get the same people harping on about the same things, but in my forays into the blogosphere this place is the most civilised and grown up I’ve encountered.
Personally I read and occasionally contribute both here and at Mark’s site and enjoy doing so.
Being a part of both of these communities has really added to my enjoyment of supporting the boys in blue. There are a few commentators who I find a tad annoying, but with any large group, there’s bound to be the case, and I can easily ignore their noise.
I understand that it’s financial commitment – and I would be happy to contribute an admin fee (however you want to name it). How about a voluntary donation – give what you want to anonymously – to ease the burden.
Its always surprises me how many people seen
to be affronted by alternative viewpoints. If there was an amalgamation of the 2 sites that would be cool with me. I like Mark and his writing skills, and sometimes he can get impatient but surely we’re all grown adults and can handle a bit of back s d forth without it having to become personal?
Either way, whatever happens, I’ll be here and there or maybe in one place. Thanks for your efforts and making this place what it is.
Thanks Watford. I enjoy writing so much. Mark gave me my first chance, and it is something I have come to love doing simply because I have always loved the Dodgers even before they moved to LA from Brooklyn. Jeff has allowed me to continue when Mark shut down his site and then came back to write solo. I love the team’s history, but I also love the games history and history in general. Always was my favorite subject in school.
I was the one who gave Mark a nudge towards you when he was contemplating shutting LADT because of the time and energy needed and if my memory serves me correctly we were over at Scott’s site. I thought you’d be good because of all your historical knowledge – you two had kinda fallen out, and he reached out to you and Badger (they’d been friends and adversaries for years) – and you came a wrote and were obviously very good at it.
I think Jeff (AC) arrived soon after and he and Rob Schelling – another knowledgeable and excellent writer began contributing.
Im getting old and time is hazing my memory a little but I think that’s roughly it.
I think your memory is pretty accurate. Evan Blah was writing for him too for a while and so was Bulldogs and Pengiuns. Scott’s site was the first one I ever posted on after the Dodgers shut down the comments section on their website because of way too much vitriol being posted and way too many Giant fan trolls. Mark and my disagreement had much to do with the Dodgers trading for Grandal who I disliked because of his use of PEDs and suspension for the same. He was a staunch supporter of the trade, and I felt trading Kemp for that clown was a lousy deal. Grandal’s four years in LA were ok, and he hit some homers, but he was a lousy clutch hitter and led the league in passed balls a couple of times. To tell the truth, he was just one of those guys who played for LA who I just never really liked. It got pretty heated between Mark and I, and I told him some stuff I regretted later. We have since met a couple of times and I respect the man a lot. He has done a great job running his site. Now he has other things he is trying to do and writing full time is a chore. So I agreed to do some writing now and then. But I still am committed to writing here as long as Jeff sees fit to keep it open.
Happy thanksgiving to everyone from Germany!
And thank you, thank you to Jeff and Bear for the best Dodgers blog on the internet.
Would be a sad day if Jeff should decide to close shop.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!
Eine schnitzel mit pomme frits und kraut un eine beer bitte.
My German is really rusty, but howdy and Happy Turkey day!
Happy Thanksgiving Jeff, Bear, and all you Chroniclers.
Jeff, I appreciate all you do and this wonderful blog. I would hate to see it go away. If you have to use ads to keep it going, so be it. I can live with ads more than I can live without this site. It is my go to for Dodger news and banter.
Dodgers not even mentioned by MLBTR as a prime landing spot for Donovan. As a matter of fact, none of the available Cardinals are considered likely to end up in LA, including Arenado which is a switch. LA is usually high on that list.
Nootbaar has been linked elsewhere
He isn’t that great anyway.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
From a baseball perspective we Dodger fans have more to be thankful for than fans in any other city right now. This is the perfect day to remember that.
Jeff, as you think about whether to continue with the site, I’d be happy to take Watford’s suggestion and make a contribution. I’d also have no problem with ads if that is what it would take to keep things going here. Nothing says you have to shoulder the burden on your own.
We’ve got a great community here and I hope you see fit to continue, but whatever your decision I very much thank you for your past efforts.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. And thankful to you Jeff for such a great site. Can’t retire before we 3 peat!
Greetings and Happy Thanksgiving to all as well….
Just want to say I’m a huge fan of Jeff and Bear. Very appreciative of all their insightful posts concerning the team we love. I will go wherever you two guys go so keep me informed. I can’t recall having any issues with anyone from Mark’s page to this page, so I’m a free agent waiting to see where I sign.
I think Cease should definitely help Toronto….can’t see how he can’t. Not sure to what extent. Unlike most of our starters, He doesn’t get injured, so there is that too.
Every day I look for Dodgers news regarding signings. Last year we had some hits and misses. Don’t want to talk about Scott, Yates, and Conforto though.Happy for Snell.
Again, thanks to all for sharing your Dodgers thoughts…I read more than I share, but enjoy listening to all, whether I agree or not.
Very content with our back to back and 3 in the last 5 or 6, whatever it is. Don’t want to be greedy, but a tri-peat would be so cool!
Shalom and blessings going out to you all,
TM
Doesn’t seem like 4 years have passed since you started your blog. Guess that’s because I really enjoy reading your commentary as well as ever else who contributes.
WRT Tucker, I think it was Dodger Digest that did a review of his batting and defensive stats. Assuming what was posted is correct, it seems like both areas are in decline. I’m a hard no on him. Bichette on the other hand is a different story.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
I get why everyone wants Bichette, but he is more of a second baseman that a SS now. I just don’t like putting Edman in center. He is better suited for second base IMHO. You sign Bichette, Edman is relegated to strictly super sub duties.
https://dodgersway.com/key-detail-of-shohei-ohtani-financial-impact-will-make-dodgers-haters-furious?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email&sc=2886516fdf4c1bbd0df3e577e8537ffae31f9cb863e3598a2891ce7bddb0fbce
They are already pissed off at the Dodgers spending. But do Dodger fans care??? Nope.
Leaving for Cali tomorrow morning. Need to beat the bad weather that is coming on Sunday. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
Bear, are you flying or driving
Driving one last time. Flying is a hassle.
Drive careful bear, I remember your last trip out here, make sure you take care of yourself
That was a fluke thing. I never would have gone if I knew I had that urinary tract infection.
Old truckers don’t fly. The roll into town.
I would be more than happy to pay a subscription fee to help keep this site going.
.
Me too.
I would be more than happy to have 77Dodger pay my fee as well.
As would I.
Thanks 77D.
Go Bears
For those who like to play GM, Anthony Castrovince has come up with 7 outrageous trades at MLB.com.
He knows that the teams very probably wouldn’t do these, but they’re fun to contemplate. There’s even one that involves Skubal and Skenes with a third team involved.
Would any of you do the Dodger trade for Duran? I think I’m leaning 51-49 in favor but I really don’t know enough about Chase Harlan to be sure.
Here’s the link: Hypothetical MLB trades for 2025-26 offseason
Castrovince does this every year. They are almpst always very well argued and supported. But he always acknowledges that they are not realistic. It is a fun exercise.
I liked the Arenado to Mets idea.
Would you do the Duran deal?
Make it a 3 team trade and I’m in. Cubs get Duran and a pitcher and Dodgers get PCA. And no, I’m not giving up on PCA.
Hold onto your dreams, but methinks you will be disappointed.
Just a day dream, hasn’t made it all the way to a full dream
If the Dodgers were to get PCA they would not need Sirota and he might be included in a trade for Kwan.
An outfield of Kwan, PCA and Pages would work.
Then trade for Royce Lewis. Whomever is healthier between Max and Royce gets to play 3B.
You might need a third option for your Max-Lewis scenario because odds are that they’ll both be on the IL at the same time for at least 80 games.
That’s harsh. Stop picking on my Muncy.
Hope/Ferris/Harland too much to give up for a guy with warts.
I understand the “warts” comment as Jarren made an a homophobic comment towards a fan. Not cool. He apologized to anyone who would listen. I do not know Jarren, and I do not know what is in his heart. So, if that is your line in the sand, I am not going to argue that point.
As far as the trade itself, that is one I would do. I like all three, but there is zero evidence any of the three will provide more wins than Duran. The Dodgers have too many OF, I like Quintero and Sirota more than Hope, and the Dodgers seemingly love De Paula’s bat. Tibbs III could be a good corner OF candidate. Ferris has fallen down the organizational chain for LHSP. Many talent evaluators may have moved Adam Serwinowski and Zack Root ahead of Ferris as LHSP prospects. Harlan may be a very good3B in 3-5 years, but the Dodgers have multiple middle infield prospects that appear to be moving to 3B, principally Emil Morales.
For me, I look past the comment, and believe that Duran would be a good trade for the Dodgers. I would have zero problem putting him in CF with Pages in RF and Teo in LF.
I would do this trade as well. The one prospect to watch for me is Sirota. If he is for real he would replace Teo very nicely in a couple of years. Sirota, Duran, Pages could be a very good outfield.
I tried to post about this trade idea yesterday and couldn’t. And I’m still getting a “not secure” warning on both my devices.
The checking your browser comment is going to be around for a little longer. It is an automatic precautionary notification from the server. But it should not impact your access or posting. If it does, let me know.
Jose Ramos, former Dodger prospect signed a deal with the Mets. He hit .295 at OKC this season in 44 games. Victim of the outfield crush.
He was a MiLB free agent, like Ward would have been had the Dodgers not added him to the 40-man. We should see Kody Hoese sign a free agent deal soon enough as he is another MiLB FA. Logan Boyer is another.
Mark
Thanks for this site whatever you decide may God Bless you
Ditto. Best in the Dodger blogosphere. No self-aggrandizing you will surely find at one and devoid of recipes and what you had for dinner at another. Dodger baseball discussed here, free of the BS.
Keep up the good work Jeff and thanks!
Ryan Helsely signs 2-year, $28MM deal with Baltimore, with opt out after year 1.
Williams getting 2y/$40m at minimum.
99
Made it to Las Vegas. Drove 758 miles today.
Wow, man’s day driving. Rest those eyes and legs, pal.
get up early bear, that Sunday traffic from Vegas to LA is getting pretty heavy these days.
Especially at the end of a 4-day holiday weekend. Hopefully Bear can lay over one extra day since traffic on Monday should be a lot lighter.
If he leaves at 0 dark thirty he’ll be ok, but if he leaves at nine, we’ll see him around four o’clock
Left at 5 am, made it to my sister’s house at 9.30. People out here drive like IDIOTS.
Yes they do, glad you made it Bear, have a great time back here in LA
If you get back over to South Bay let me know