When it comes to recent Augusts, the Dodgers have had huge leads on their NL West competition, save 2021 and San Francisco. The Dodgers ended up in 2nd place in the NL West that year and had to beat St. Louis in a wild card playoff series. As it turns out, that was the last year the Dodgers actually got past the NLDS, but succumbed to Atlanta in the NLCS, who went on to win the WS.
For the past two past season playoffs, we have heard many and varied reasons for the LAD failures, and yes, they were failures.
- It is the hottest team that wins, not necessarily the best team.
- The winning team needs good luck.
- Too much time for the teams with a bye to sit and wait.
- Poor manager and coaches’ decisions.
- The players.
There is a microcosm of reasons for the players. Why did the players go so cold at the same time, especially with RISP? Why did the starting pitching run out (2021 and 2023); relief pitching (2022)? Where was the clutch player, post Corey Seager? Did they have the right players for the playoffs?
Of course it is the players who failed. On paper, no team was built better than LAD. But the games are not played on paper. Every time I watch the games, I hear how either Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman are the two guys wanted at the plate in clutch situations. Not just in LAD, but in MLB. Dodger broadcast hyperbole? Perhaps, but I heard it on national broadcasts as well.
This past Winter AF/BG addressed SP with the additions of Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They expected that Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Gavin Stone would be in the rotation to start the year. Soon to follow, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw. I do not believe that the Dodgers believed they were going to need to rely on Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt (still thought of as a SP).
Instead, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Frasso, Sheehan, Miller, Buehler, Ryan, Hurt were all sidelined with arm injuries. Frasso, Sheehan, Ryan, and Hurt were lost for the season, while Miller and Buehler are still trying to work things out. Kershaw is still inconsistent. And the hopes of the LAD season may rest in what happens with Glasnow and Yamamoto over the next 5 weeks.
They got two big bats in Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández, and neither have disappointed. But the injuries were not relegated only to pitching, as both Mookie and Max Muncy were sidelined long term with injuries. Freddie is currently dealing with a fractured finger, the serious illness of his young son, Maximus, and now the loss from the team of his best friend, Jason Heyward. Of course, Freddie is a professional, and players are traded/released all the time. In and by itself, the DFA of J-Hey should not be an issue, but tied with the other concerns, it is just as hard to understand why Freddie may be having issues.
Freddie returned to the lineup August 5 after Maximus’ scary ordeal. Since then he has hit .264/.303/.375/.678. Since he returned from his fractured finger, Freddie has hit .130/.200/.217/.417. Jason has been gone for three games. Over those three games, Freddie has hit .077/.077/.077/.154. And yet over those time frames, the Dodgers are 12-6, 5-1, and 2-1 respectively. Sign of a good team.
While Will Smith has not had the offensive year most were hoping for, the emergence of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas offensively have made up for Smith.
Now the Dodgers find themselves in a dogfight for the NL West, and possibly a first-round bye. While the Dodgers are playing winning baseball, it pales in comparison to both Arizona and San Diego. With 31 games to play, it is difficult to believe that the Dodgers will lose 10 games in the standings to NYM and fall out of the playoffs altogether.
What will be different this year in the playoffs? It still looks like the Dodgers rely heavily on the HR. They just scored 18 runs in the series with Tampa Bay, and 15 were the result of the HR.
After watching the Olympics, I came away with a few observations.
I am not a Basketball fan, and have not been one since Magic retired, except for the 2001-2002 season where I was trash talking with obnoxious Sacramento Kings fans. I got the last laugh. During the Olympics, I watched a loaded USA team that was pushed to the limit in the final two games only to be lifted by Steph Curry. Talk about a clutch player. Who will be the LAD Steph Curry?
Team USA has consistently put together a favorite for the Men’s 4X100 track relay team. And yet the team has not medaled since 2004 (silver) or won since 2000. This year was going to be different. Noah Lyles was supposed to anchor the team but had to withdraw because of Covid. He still believed the team had enough to win Gold.
Before the races, sprinter legend Carl Lewis said:
If @TeamUSA wins all relays tomorrow, you talk to the athletes. If something happens and they do not sweep. ONLY talk to the coaches. Yes, I said it!!!
— Carl Lewis (@Carl_Lewis) August 8, 2024
After the DQ, Carl said this:
It is time to blow up the system. This continues to be completely unacceptable. It is clear that EVERYONE at @usatf is more concerned with relationships than winning. No athlete should step on the track and run another relay until this program is changed from top to bottom. https://t.co/Re6THj8QTm
— Carl Lewis (@Carl_Lewis) August 9, 2024
Lewis Johnson, long-time and extremely respected NBC track and field analyst said:
“Carl is furious and he’s angry about multiple things,” reported Johnson. “First of all, he’s angry about a system that he says is not set up to help the athletes from the United States move forward and do well. He said if Noah Lyles was out sick with Covid, they should have just replaced the anchor leg and nothing else. But the fact they reordered the entire relay had him worried, and in the end had him upset.”
One other Olympics observation was the US Women’s national soccer team. Since the 90’s, USWNT has one of the best in the world. They have won 4 World Cups since 1990, came in 2nd once, and third twice, in 9 tournaments. They have also won 5 of the 8 gold medals for women’s soccer. They also have won a silver and bronze. That is very dominant for a US team in a sport that is far more followed and played in the rest of the world.
That all seemed to change after the round of 16 loss in the 2023 World Cup. The team was in disarray. The coach had no control. Most of the previous front-line stars left.
In the interim, Team USA selected a new coach, Emma Hayes. Hayes has long been considered one of the best coaches in the world. She has backed that up with 16 trophies in 12 years at Chelsea FC, the English club she led from relative obscurity to a global leader in the women’s game during that span.
Hayes was named coach of the US National team in May 2024, and had to put a team together to compete against the world’s best in the 2024 Paris Olympics. Alex Morgan was the last remaining superstar at the National level, but in a surprise move, she was left off the squad.
In just 81 days, Emma Hayes took the USWNT back to glory to win the Gold.
There was no single method for success this summer, which is very much in line with Hayes’ whole vibe. Rather than coaching from a strict structure that forces opponents to adjust to her team’s tried-and-true approach like many modern coaches, Hayes studies an opponent to modify her approach. Nice concept.
She used in-game adjustments to best Brazil. She saw they were a 1 v 1 team. The strength of the US team was defense anchored by the exceptional keeper, Alyssa Naeher, and they believed they could beat a team with perhaps better skilled players, but without a team concept. She just needed one of her newbies to score. And, as any great team must in a major tournament, they found ways to win ugly: first against Australia, then in the semifinal against a more composed version of Germany.
The U.S. allowed just two goals all tournament, tied for the fewest by any team in the field, while also recording a tournament-high four clean sheets (shutouts). The USA ended the tournament with three consecutive clean sheets, becoming the first team in Olympic history to not concede a goal in the quarterfinal, semifinal and final.
Yes, it was the players, but it was the vision of Emma Hayes of putting the team in the best position to win, including leaving off a USWNT icon, Alex Morgan, from the team.
What does any of that mean? For me it tells me that while the best may not always win, there has to be repercussions if you continue to lose, and Carl Lewis is calling for that in US Track and Field.
While it is the players that win, the USWNT was not supposed to win the Gold, and yet they did, and in large part due to the leadership of coach Emma Hayes. So maybe a coach can make a difference.
And who will be the Dodgers’ Steph Curry?
The Dodgers have 31 games to find that team. I do like how they are playing right now. It reminds me of the 2020 team that was relentless. The next 7 games will do a lot to decide where the Dodgers are in comparison with two of the better teams in MLB. And finally, will performance truly decide who makes the playoff rosters?
Great article.
Some stats:
Regular seasons games? 2.4 homers on average.
Playoff games? 1.3 HR on average.
BUT, in games with HRs (approx 65% of playoff games) the team that hits more than the other team goes 14-1. In the games with no homers or equal amount of homers the team that had the most hits and walks went undefeated.
So, my takeaway is hit homers, and when you don’t get runners on base.
A whole bunch of things determine the outcome of ballgames – pitching, defense, weather, errors, hits, walks and who’s hot, who’s cold. Who’s hungover and who is nervous.
It’s silly to pick just one and say this is how you win ballgames.
You need skill to get there, you need depth to get there.
Then you need to play well, and get lucky.
👍
Excellent blog today , Jeff. And good to see you back on the beam again. Hope your rehab is going well and the pain subsides.
Could it be that this roster is a little too old and unathletic ? Other than Lux not one of our hitters is under 30, with Smith and Edman right on the cusp. And it has been that way for some time now. Lots of veterans and not many young players.
Maybe they get tired down the stretch and in the postseason.
Just a thought.
My question ; Who will be the Dodgers Emma Hayes? Roberts with his skills is a solid manager but IMHO the Dodgers should try to go in another direction if they fall short of their own expectations again this year.
If we see the same story again this year as we did before (sans 2020 which was a avery unique season from the outset) since Roberts took over I would go another direction on the manager chair.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The roster seems in good shape and there should be seven candidates for the postseason rotation, assuming that Glasnow and Yamamoto come back in good shape and Miller and Buehler continue to progress,
While we’d all like to see Smith get his offense going again, let’s not overlook his defense.
The other day, he threw out two guys trying to steal second. According to Statcast, he know ranks first for “Catcher’s CS Above Average.” I don’t know how this is computed, but his score of 9 is just ahead of Patrick Bailey’s 8–and no other catcher is about 5. The much-respected Realmuto is at 2.
And Will Smith just gunned down another…
Jeff great blog as usual you and Bear make a good team.
One point I struggle with is the drum beat that the players are at fault etc. imo the manager is at least a percentage of the problem. Where the players hit in the line up, how often they are used, the constant platooning regardless of their current performance etc. you cannot take the emotion out of the game with stats but the Dodgers try to.
I’m not only superstitious, I’m incredibly stitious. I think our opening series rotation will determine if we are going to win it all:
Glasnow, Flaherty, Yamamoto, Stone/Kershaw: yes
Flaherty, Stone, Kershaw, Miller: no
If we get back only one of Glasnow/Yamamoto, push.
I’m not sure what you’re driving at Jeff. “For me it tells me that while the best may not always win, there has to be repercussions if you continue to lose,” Does that mean somebody in management has to be fired?
As for losing, I’m still one who believes the Dodgers success will not be measured in wins. I recall a popular song by Danny Kaye back in the 60’s. D-O-D-G-E-R-S (Oh Really? No O’Malley) In the middle of this great song were these lyrics:
“Down in the dug-out Alston glowers
Up in the booth Vin Scully frowns
Out in the stands O’Malley grins
Attendance fifty thousand”
The Dodgers success, and all businesses success, is measured by the bottom line. According to Forbes, the Dodgers 2024 net worth is up 14%. As prices to attend Dodgers games skyrocket the attendance remains the same as it has been for years, the Dodgers lead all of baseball in attendance, and they lead by a wide margin. This team by every measure is enormously successful. Fat cats love winning, but they love money far more. And the Dodgers are raining money. Will they fire Friedman? Of course not. Will they fire Roberts? I very much doubt it but if the fans who are paying for all of this demand loud enough they might. Will it change anything? On the field maybe. But it wont change what remains the most important to ownership.
The bottom line matters most–but a championship would help the bottom line a lot.
Danny Kaye was a big Dodgers fan. Fun fact: His niece Jayne Kamin was an LA Times photographer who shot a lot of Dodger games.
If you talk to a casual fan not wearing Dodger Blue colored glasses they would not be impressed with one shortened season World Series win with the talent this team has had over Roberts’ tenure. I am very comfortable with that statement.
Don’t forget the stolen one by the Astros. You can’t tell me that you don’t feel the dodgers would have won that series if the Astros didn’t cheat.
Is that why they sell out so many games?
the casual fan is as happy as a clam with this team.
You are not a non-Dodger fan. Clearly. You aren’t on topic either.
I like Roberts. But the post is about coaching. I am not giving a coach 100% devotion because he simply leads the team I follow.
Outside of Dodger Land, some think he should have accomplished more. I know this because I travel all over the place and they say those words. Just left Saint Louis and heard the same thing.
St. Louis needs to clean their own mess before they comment on other teams. I know they won a World Series in 2011, how many times have they been to the playoffs since?
What a massive sample size!
I’ll stick with stadium attendance as signifier of satisfaction.
@wally: casual fan? Attends less than seven games. Watches 5-10 games (or parts thereof) per month on TV. Maybe reads an article a week? Probably not, anymore.
“I travel all over the place”
You are 0 for 2 in terms of comprehension. I will make sure to ignore your comments in the future LOL. Even tho they are so incredibly “deep.”
The non-Dodger fan (unless they’re die hard Giant fans who also pay close attention to the Dodgers), don’t pay close attention to the Dodgers, their injuries, or the ups and downs of the year. They follow their own teams and then their division to see if they have a shot at October.
All those fans do is check the standings here and there (we’re always in first place), and then start tuning in for October (we’re always there).
So what they see is, the team with baseball’s best record and 13/12/11/10/keep going continuous playoff seasons can’t seem to come thru in Oct when it matters most. Nobody cares about our week off. They just know we can’t close it out (except in 2020). They know we got cheated in 2017 but most of them don’t think about that anymore (or every day like us).
Baseball fans don’t know the Dodgers? Stupid.
Please identify the casual fan. If you’re a casual fan you don’t care one way or the other by definition.
I do not believe Freddie Freeman is a mental midget. So I do not think that Jay-Hey being released is negatively affecting Freddie’s play whatsoever.
However, a slight hairline fracture could impact his play. And that’s the more likely reason for his recent slump.
In fairness, Freeman’s stats (except maybe BABIP) are down (to some extent) for the entire year.
I think Freddie will be fine.
But it’s also possible that he may be starting to show his age a bit. He’ll turn 35 in September.
Some players perform well approaching 40, and I used to assume that Freddie would be one of those guys. The Dodgers would extend him and we’d have the Big Three for five or six years together. But with young Maximus ailing, Freddie’s priorities may change.
I think the GOAT is on to something!
I think it was Jenga
Padres picked up Elias Diaz on a minor league deal.
That’s a great pick up with Barnes being out, especially considering it cost the team next to nothing
I know this is a Dodger blog and I’m not trying to ignore that fact but I’m going to my change-up today.
Aaron Judge is must watch for me lately. Shohei is incredible but Judge is doing historical stuff and is the best player in the game.
Judge went 1 for 4 last night but made two great catches in center, one robbing a homer, over the wall and made a relay throw to double up a runner at first. His all-around play is remarkable.
Joe Posnanski thinks Aaron Judge has the greatest 95 game stretch in the history of baseball. Acknowledging that you can’t compare players from different generations, but it’s “fun and silly” to compare Judge to Ruth.
Judge in 95 games has posted .383/1.377, 24 doubles, 45 homers, 104 rbi, 91 runs.
Ruth in 1924 had a 95 game span he hit .431/.1.406 w/ 33 homers
Bonds in 2004 hit .384/1.457 w/ 31 homers
OPS comparisons:
Williams 1.357
Mantle 1.287
McGwire 1.164
Brett 1.155
Maris 1.133
Cobb 1.132
It’s interesting that in 1924 Ruth faced a total of 69 different pitchers, all year. 4 of them HOF’ers. Walter Johnson the only name I recognize of the 4.
Bonds faced 200 pitchers in 2004, including The Unit, Clemens, Maddux, Martinez.
Judge has already faced 284 pitchers this year. 62 of which throw 97+.
Joe Pods states “Judge, in 95 games has been better than peak Barry Bonds, outslugging him by 50 points, scored more runs and has 34 more homers.”
Good grief those are mind boggling stats.
Sources are reporting that JHey is close to signing a deal with the Astros.
MLBTR is reporting that.
Wait. What is it?
MLBTR (whatever that is) is saying sources are reporting something?
Or is/are MLBTR the source?
maybe a link would help?
Major League Baseball Trade Rumors. MLBTradeRumors.com
Bluto, with the huge variety of sites you visit on a regular basis, I can’t believe you don’t know what mlbtr.com is. If not, take a look. They’re the best source for gathering trades, rumors, etc., all under one umbrella.
The source for my original post was a reporter who covers the Astros. Can’t remember his/her name. MLBTR picked it up and re-posted it.
Thanks! For what it’s worth, and it’s not worth much, I use curated X lists.
The GOAT is slipping
mlb=major league baseball
tr=trade rumors
google it
J-Hey’s deal with Astros done pending a physical. A corresponding move will have to be made on the 40-man roster.
Good for J-Hey. He underperformed in a pretty limited role with the Dodgers this season. But he’s a class act and I wish him well. But why did it have to be the Asstros.
Maybe they were the only offer.
Or maybe they were the best offer.
Or maybe he’s really really pissed at Andrew.
I’m guessing it’s number 2.
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/Qa9DUr16deV2PS5g/?mibextid=VhDh1V
Well kudos to the Dodgers for doing right by Heyward even by DFA’ing him. They could have held on to him until Sept 1st and he would not have been eligible for the playoffs.
Let’s hope he does well.
I don’t wish him ill will, just a negative WAR.
I hope he does well except against us.
Freddy gets a day off Keke playing first base tonight
Here we go. Go get em Flaherty
Strange line up tonight, max hitting behind Edman, and Rojas
Muncy is behind Edman and Rojas because of Irvins’ crazy OPS splits. Vs LHH .496 and against RHH .916
Rushing has hit 2 homers tonight against Round Rock, numbers 4&5. Lipcius hit his 23rd.
And Pages had three hits against RHP.
Cartaya 0 for 5 and his stats are bad this year. I think I was the only one that called his downfall BEFORE he got to AA ball when the downfall happened. At that time he was the number one Dodger prospect two years in a row and in the top 100 overall two years in a row. And take a look at Miguel Vargas‘s stats since going to the White Sox. It looks like he’s no longer a starter. Do I even need to mention, Mark.
In a 23 hour period there are 8 people that have posted on Mark‘s blog besides Mark.
It’s getting the point that we need to get Barnes’ bat in our lineup. Smith is just an anchor
Smith BA. May .212 June .203 July .208 Aug .193. Ouch! This is not just a slump
10 year contract weighing on him? He said “profar was irrelevant”profar might be saying back at u. last year he had a broken rib. Mb an injury? U don’t just forget how to hit for 4 months do u?
1st and second nobody out. Betts and Ohtani easy outs. Teo hits it hard but no dice.this is going to b a tough series. If we don’t win tonight with Buehler going tomorrow it could get ugly. Pads already won. Dbacks down 8-0.
In Will’s defense that wasn’t a strike but in this league you just have to protect with two strikes.
Do we expect him to snap out of it in September?
Not really, this isn’t the first season he’s gotten worse as the season goes on, catchers get worn out that’s baseball.
it may be the only down side to having Ohtani on the team, now we can’t rest Smith at DH once or twice a week like they have previously.
I was hoping Mark Prior might be able to get Flaherty’s home run percentage down.
Home runs can kill you in the playoffs.
Scoring 2 runs kills you in the playoffs!
Too many homers being given up. Padres won, D-Backs losing.
“Too many homers”. True, but 3 runs is actually a good night for the pitching staff.
I’m not giving up on my far-fetched, very unlikely Rushing replaces Taylor idea.
Totally agree Bluto. In fact I’d rather have you replace Taylor.