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Just How Deep Is the LAD Organizational Starting Pitching?

Just for this exercise, let’s assume the LAD rotation into May is:

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto (26)
  • Blake Snell (32)
  • Tyler Glasnow (31)
  • Tony Gonsolin (31)
  • Roki Sasaki (23)

Shohei Ohtani (30) will join the rotation in May to make it a 6-man rotation which AF/BG/Doc have said it will stay that way for the remainder of the season.

Clayton Kershaw (37) says he will be ready in June.  Someone will be injured by then, right???  I hope not, but it is probably just a question as to who?

The above projection could change with Dustin May (27) replacing Sasaki or Landon Knack (27) replacing Sasaki.  I think the Dodgers have been hyping Sasaki so that the likelihood he is not in the rotation to start the season is close to nil.  However, that hype is starting to wane.  It is now being reported that Sasaki may not be pitching in Game 2 of the Cubs series in Tokyo. Way too often “may not” actually means …”will not”. But again, I need a starting point, and even though Sasaki may not pitch in Game 2, it is still projected for Roki to be in the rotation.  That would put May in the bullpen, where I think he belongs anyway.  Although, Jose Mota believes Dustin May has the lead over Gonsolin.  His reason is that he believes Gonsolin is a better fit in the pen.

I was hoping that Bobby Miller (26) was ready to re-elevate himself back into the rotation, but that 106.6 MPH line drive off his forehead set Bobby back.  He is going to get back to pitching against MLB teams.  There are 8 games remaining in Arizona before the team departs to Japan, so not nearly enough time for Bobby to get stretched out.  He is undoubtedly headed to MiLB camp when LAD is in Japan so he can start with OKC and continue the buildup.

That brings me to the primary premise of this post.  Just how deep is the Dodger starting pitching?

Before I get started…it is DEEP, VERY DEEP.

With the aforementioned big league starters, here is the projected OKC rotation (my projection).

  • Landon Knack (27)
  • Justin Wrobleski (24)
  • Bobby Miller (26)
  • Nick Frasso (26)
  • Ben Casparius (26)
  • Justin Jarvis/Matt Sauer/Stephen Ridings/Sam Carlson/Joe Jacques

This could certainly change with any of Knack/Wrobleski/Casparius ticketed for the LAD bullpen.  However, generally AF/BG like to have these guys stretched out in OKC for…  just in case.

MiLB’s schedule is a 6 game schedule, every Tuesday-Sunday.  The Dodgers generally have a bevy of AAAA pitchers to fill the back end of the rotation, so Justin Jarvis, Matt Sauer, and Stephen Ridings are the three most likely candidates if the Dodgers choose a full 6-man rotation.  Carlson and Jacques are probably headed to the OKC bullpen, but could get a look as well.

Dropping down to AA, my projection of the Tulsa Drillers rotation is:

  • Jackson Ferris (21)
  • Jared Karros (24)
  • Chris Campos (24)
  • Peter Heubeck (22)
  • Carlos Duran (23)
  • Jerming Rosario (23)

It is entirely plausible that Carlos Duran moves to the bullpen and Jacob Meador (24) can take his spot in the rotation.  Meador is not just a replacement.  He is an unranked prospect who has some tools.  He pitched well in his 3 AA starts last year.  But like most LAD pitchers, he lacks control.  He will never be in the LAD rotation (IMO), but he could show enough to become a legit relief prospect, or packaged to another team.

The first three in the rotation are realistic MLB pitching prospects.  Maybe they end up in the bullpen (with Duran), but they should pitch at the MLB level at some point.  I am an advocate of all four.

I think the Dodgers’ 2021 draft has left a lot on the table.  I was more of a Peter Heubeck advocate than Maddux Bruns, but he has not exactly been a pitcher that is being noticed as a potential MLB starter.  He will be 22 in AA this year, and maybe he turns it around.

Great Lakes projected starters for me are:

  • Payton Martin (21)
  • Maddux Bruns (23)
  • Wyatt Crowell (23)
  • Patrick Copen (23)
  • Sean Linen (20)

The first two are consensus top 30 prospects.  The next two appear (have appeared) in top 30 lists.  For me, Linen is someone to watch.  Maybe he starts back at Rancho, but IMO should be pushed to GL. Fangraphs has him at GL.  In his first MLB appearance in ST (Sunday), he struck out Jacob Amaya on 5 pitches.  Here is a summary of his matchup with Jacob Amaya.  He threw his 2-seamer, cutter, and change all for strikes.  Amaya is not much of an offensive threat, so Linen is going to need to move the pitch around to be more effective against better hitters. Command wise, his pitches hit too much of the plate and in the same quadrant.  In 131.2 career IP he has compiled 163 strikeouts and 48 walks.  He throws strikes.

 

 

Rancho and ACL will have their fair share of potential highly rated pitching prospects.

  • Hyun-Seok Jang (21)
  • Eriq Swan (23)
  • Nicolas Cruz (21)
  • Christian Zazueta (20)
  • Samuel Sanchez (19)
  • Sterling Patick (20)
  • Jakob Wright (22)
  • Jesus Tillero (19)
  • Brady Smith (20)

Four of the above are on Baseball America’s current Top 30 LAD prospect list: Swan (#15), Jang (#19), Wright (#23), Sanchez (#29).  The other five are all potential Top 30 prospects.  Tillero has been on the MLB Pipeline Top 30 list in the past.  Some have him as a potential top 100 prospect.

The Dodgers are still very high on Brady Smith who has not pitched since being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2023 draft.  He had TJ surgery in June 2023, and the Dodgers did not want to push him in rookie ACL last year.  Last year’s ACL championship game was July 28 (Dodgers beat the Dbacks).  The regular season ended July 25 for the ACL; 13 months following Smith’s TJ surgery.  This year the ACL begins May 3, and I expect to see Brady Smith pitch sometime in that first week.

Because of the pitching depth the Dodgers have at the MLB level and AAA level, most of the pitchers at AA and below are blocked unless there are injuries.  Ferris and Karros would be pitching for many AAA affiliates.  Rosario pitched for OKC late last year.

Martin, Bruns, Crowell, and Copen all could be pitching for most AA teams.  But they are blocked at A+ right now.  How many of the low A pitchers would be pitching at higher level affiliates for most other organizations?

It is silly just how deep the LAD starting pitching is.  Highly rated pitchers all the way to low A and perhaps Rookie League.  Many of these will undoubtedly end up in the bullpen, and others will not make it to MLB at all.  But the pitching talent is undeniable.  And there are very few cracks in the projected rotation for pitchers lower in the organizational ladder to move through.  Injuries will obviously occur, and no pitcher prospect is hoping for an injury to another pitcher so they can move up, but that certainly appears to be the only way for some of these guys to in fact move up.  There are pitchers that are not mentioned above who can replace an injured pitcher from their same affiliate, making it harder for prospects lower in the ladder to move up.  Maybe AF/BG should move some of this talent for position player prospects.

 

 

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Bluto

Great column!

if major-league baseball gets their way, and further reduces the size of the minors, the backlog will get even worse

I’m changing my sleeper pick to Samuel Sanchez!

Last edited 2 months ago by Bluto
Singing the Blue

They’ll not only have to find a spot for Kershaw, but Sheehan probably won’t be far behind him. Of course, they could send him to OKC or move him to the bullpen, at least temporarily.

If the word is out that Sasaki may not pitch game 2 in Japan, would that mean he might not be ready to go into the rotation right away? If so, I wonder if they’d send him to OKC for a few games or keep him in Arizona until they thought he was ready. Tonight should tell us something about his progress so far, although I can’t for the life of me figure out why they’d want to bring him in later in the game rather than have him start a game.

I spotted something I liked with Jacob Meador on draft day in 2022 but can’t remember what that was any more. Would love to see him have some success.

First seven spots in the lineup tonight look very much like an opening day lineup. Would have liked to see Outman in there instead of CT3 but I’m sure they have their reasons. Maybe the Reds are looking for an expensive utility player.

Johnny Gentle

Good stuff. Never heard of Linan.

Sam Oyed

Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed pitcher Edgardo Henriquez has suffered a metatarsal injury, manager Dave Roberts revealed on Tuesday. No reason for the injury was stated. Roberts also adds that Henriquez wasn’t ready to say what happened.

Sounds like something stupid happened.

Singing the Blue

Maybe Mookie dropped his bowling ball on it.

Sam Oyed

👍

Cassidy

Why did Cincy trade for Lux with McLain and De La Cruz? So Lux could start for the Dodgers but not the Reds.

Bluto

Not sure I understand what you’re….

Answering?

Duke Not Snider

How deep is the pitching?
The Dodgers basically have two really good five-man rotations, plus a third in the pipeline.
And don’t forget the IL rotation: Kershaw, Stone, Sheehan, Ryan, Hurt, Grove. (Oh, I guess that’s six.)

On the non-pitching front, here’s another reason to admire much-maligned Max Muncy, candidly reflecting on his injury issues in ’24.

From DodgersNation:
What began as a sore oblique last season for Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy turned into a three-month stint on the injured list.
As he was sidelined, dark thoughts crept in.
“When you’re in month three of not playing, and nothing’s getting better, you’re starting to have thoughts in your head,” Muncy said to the LA Times. “Like, ‘Is this my body telling me that you just can’t do this anymore?’ That was a tough one for me.”
Finally, a chiropractor cracked the code and found a displaced rib was the culprit of Muncy’s issue. He was back in the lineup by August and flourished.
Muncy delivered a .925 OPS late in the season before becoming a pivotal part of the team’s World Series push, notably setting a record by reaching base 12 consecutive times during the National League Championship Series.
When Muncy looked back on 2024, there were two big takeaways from his time on the IL: He is confident in his abilities and he needed to tweak his mentality.
“The injury kind of gave me a new light,” Muncy said. “It’s always been a blessing to be out there and play this game. But when you start reaching a point last year where you weren’t sure if you were going to be able to come back at all, you start really being grateful for the opportunities you have to be out there.”
“It’s just one of those things,” he added, “where you’re gonna appreciate it a little bit more.”

Nice, huh?
I’ve long thought that Max is underpaid by the Dodgers and under-appreciated by fans. It’s so nice to have a team player like Max at 3B instead of a me-first jerk like Rendon or Devers.

Michael Norris

Yamamoto had a shaky first inning again, then settled down for the next three innings. Sasaki had some traffic, but otherwise he was pretty impressive. Mookie with the only real damage by a regular. The kids won it in the 8th. LA now 7-6 in spring training. They play the Angels in Mesa tomorrow. Next Tuesday is their last game in Arizona before they leave for Japan.

Jeff

I finally caught a game as most of the starts have been at 3am, my time. Yamamoto, indeed, looked shaky but settled in.

Roki, was terrific. This guy could be that special pitcher we’ve all been waiting for.

After a slow start, the team seems to be picking up steam. Dreyer has looked impressive to me. Lots of poise. Treinen, very shaky. He looked gassed by the end of last season. I hope he holds up.

This team is DEEP!

Duke Not Snider

Sasaki’s debut, I think, surpassed our short-term expectations–and lived up to the early hype.
We had been hearing his velocity was down, and that he may not be ready to pitch in Tokyo.
But he debuts with a 99mph heater and strong command. Five Ks in 3 innings.
Not bad for a guy who is still described as an unfinished product.
Yamamoto and Sasaki should be the starters in Tokyo. The Dodgers will give the Japanese faithful what they want to see.

Badger

Sasaki. My crystal ball is somewhat cloudy. Here’s why:

”A split-finger fastball is considered hard on the elbows because the grip required to throw it, with the fingers spread wide apart on the ball, puts significant stress on the ligaments and tendons in the elbow joint, potentially leading to strain or injury if thrown excessively or with improper mechanics; essentially, the wide finger spread creates extra torque on the elbow during the throwing motion. 

Key points about the split-finger fastball and elbow stress:

Grip mechanics:The unique grip, where the index and middle fingers are spread apart on the ball, creates a lot of tension in the forearm and elbow muscles to generate the desired downward movement on the pitch. Increased torque:This grip can put additional torque on the elbow joint, especially when thrown with high velocity. Potential for injury:Overuse of the split-finger fastball, particularly without proper technique, can lead to elbow pain, strains, or even more serious injuries like ligament damage”This kid is tall and skinny and throws extremely hard. He’s already had some issues with his arm. I think the same thing can be said about Yamamoto except he’s short.

So what am I getting at? Be very careful with these guys. 6 man rotation, 1 start a week, with running and stretching between starts. Strength exercises maybe but very little throwing. Just an easy bullpen session on day 3. I’m admittedly not sure about what exactly should go into these recovery days but highly educated trainers should know.

Muncy. I’m hoping for 130 games.

Betts. He’s going to challenge Freddie at first. We saw evidence of that yesterday.

Kim. He didn’t even play yesterday. 18 players in the box score and he wasn’t one of them. Big mistake. He needs at bats. Lots of them.

Centerfield. Gulp.

To the headline of this post. I agree Dodger starting pitching is very deep. I strongly suggest they use them all.

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
Badger

“I think every pitcher expects to be injured at some point in their career”

“Sasaki and Yamamoto will undoubtedly incur injuries in their career”

That’s what I am talking about. Will it be this year? And it won’t be just them. One need only look at the Dodgers staff history to know something is very wrong here. May, Gonsolin, Stone, Grove, Phillips, Hurt, Ryan, Sheehan, Glasnow, Kopech, Graterol, Sasaki, Yamamoto, Ohtani.

There are compelling questions that need answers. I’ve been stressing recovery for years now. Starters pitch once a week. 6 man rotation. I don’t know if these suggestions are the answer, maybe their studies show they aren’t. The current answer the Dodgers are giving is not to fix the problem but rather just buy more of them.

So who will be first to go down this year? You know somebody will. Then somebody else will follow them.

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
Make Mine Blue

Sasaki must have read your blog Jeff, his ST debut sort of knocked a hole in your post.

I do agree that the pitching is very deep but as we have witnessed with Bobby Miller it can be completely bashed in a matter of moments. Bobby is still unfit to pitch, let’s hope he gets better, there has always been a bit of a concern about Bobby’s psych but now after the knock out shot to the melon can he comeback mentally to pitch? Only time will tell.

Last edited 2 months ago by Make Mine Blue
Dave

With Yamamoto, Glasnow and Snell all signed long term it doesn’t leave much room for all these other mlb ready pitchers. Next year others will be moving up to be mlb depth. After this season they will have to trade a few of them. Maybe for position players for the future at 1b,3b,cf.

OhioDodger

Roberts Jr. is having a great spring. If he stays healthy and continues to produce White Sox can cash in at the deadline.

Michael Norris

Which is exactly why he wasn’t and won’t be traded during spring training. They want to maximize their return. But his overall health and ability to stay on the field are still huge questions. What-ifs are not conducive to good trades.

Badger

I think too much importance is given to Spring numbers. Major League hitters are hitting against minor league pitchers, most veterans are just marking time getting in shape preparing for a 180 game schedule. Minor leaguers are trying to impress of course but all of them will be assigned and that will begin shortly.

Robert Jr isn’t going to OPS 1.400 and Muncy isn’t going to OPS 1.000. That’s where they sit today but today’s numbers don’t mean squat.

Last edited 2 months ago by Badger
Michael Norris

Exactly.

philjones

I fear I’m becoming a grumpy old bastard; at least when it comes to Camelback Ranch. I expressed by gripes a few days ago when it comes to their lack of hospitality.
Last night was a delightful evening for a ballgame. I little chill in the air, a nice crowd and a fun lineup with plenty of regulars. A chance to see Yamamoto stretched out a bit and Sasaki for the first time.
My favorite things about a baseball game are the smells of hot dogs, pine tar, rosing, the beauty of the fresh mowed field and the casual pace to the game. I enjoy environment which allows for conversation among friends.
But my enjoyment was ruined by the volume of the frigging “music” played constantly. There is never a moment of peace and quiet. It was impossible for my friend and I to carry on a conversation from a foot away. I don’t get the “entertainment”.  
They play like 10 second bits of songs between every pitch at a deafening level. It’s totally unnecessary.
I guess this is an attempt to keep young people engaged in the game. I guess these folks need constant stimulation or they get bored. The folks that can’t survive without their phone at their ear.
I hate it. My ears are still ringing. Totally unnecessary.

Yamamoto salvaged his outing from another rocky start. He was fooling nobody early. A big double play bailed him out of an inning and he settled down and finished with a manageable pitch count. He seemed to find that sinker.
Sasaki was outstanding. At foot strike, he generates some serious arm speed. And a pretty violent action to sit at 99 mph. That is somewhat worrisome for me as it could lead to arm issues with all that maximum effort. So much for gearing down and leaving something in the bag. 
He also tips his curveball with a much slower and less violent delivery. His arm is noticeable slower which will be noticed.
I’m not familiar yet with what pitches he throws by name but the slider/spliter pitch is a bitch. It shows extreme vertical drop and no horizontal break. He looks like the real deal to me and I prey the max effort doesn’t blow out his arm.
I loved Ohtani trying to stretch out the double. Fraley made an awesome throw from right and a nice tag to nail him. Bang-bang. Great play all the way around.
I’m sure some folks will criticize the effort, fearing injury, but I loved it. Play the game.
Another game Thursday. Maybe my hearing will come back by then.

Make Mine Blue

The MLB really has become a noisy circus. They have over-stepped the energy level boosters to an extreme. Yeah, I know they want to attract the younger crowd but are they really achieving that. I don’t really enjoy going to the stadium anymore, just too much of too much, needs to be seriously throttled back.

Wally Moonshot

Helen Dell must be spinning in her grave. Assuming she’s dead of course.

Jeff

I have the same complaint about the NBA. Too much noise, a constant bombardment. Even the announcers can’t shut up for a moment. Yep, grumpy old men like me are now watching with the sound turned OFF.

Cassidy

That and all they do is shoot 3 pointers and play no D

Jeff

There are some very good defensive teams this season, the Thunder being the top one. Cleveland and OKC=Finals.

Sam Oyed

Recent article on how players fell about the new ABS system.
https://flip.it/t4oZXW

Make Mine Blue

Drop the appeal bullshit and just call every pitch, send a tone immediately to the ump if it is a ball or a strike. This limited appeal stuff is just as bad as letting the umps screw up the game with terrible balls and strikes calls. The MLB is making it way to complicated, just let the machines get it right on every pitch.

OhioDodger

Totally agree MMB. They have the means to get every pitch correct. Why not use it?? Ump still gets to make the call and it eliminates stopping for an appeal. The umps should be excited about a tool that would help them be better at their job.

Badger

I agree as well. Nothing will change as far as the flow of the game. The ump takes his position as usual and makes the call that is sent to him. He needs to be in position to make other calls that could be necessary, like HBP. The game will look exactly the same.

The technology is there to get it right. Isn’t that what everyone wants?

Singing the Blue

Interesting article today in The Athletic on Jack Dryer for those of you who subscribe.

He has two claims to fame:
1) Last year Vesia’s fastball had the most vertical break of any fastball in the majors. In his appearance on Tuesday, Dreyer was 10% more than Vesia’s.
2) He’s a Rubik’s cube savant. Has been known to solve one in 14 seconds.

Last year a put 1200 partially solved cubes together to do a portrait of Shohei.
This is one interesting guy. Hope he makes the OD roster.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIqgnltbwAAMwFH?format=jpg&name=900×900

Singing the Blue

Sorry, I spelled his name two different ways. Correct spelling is “Dreyer”.

Badger

No excuse. Get it write dammit.

Cassidy

He looks like he could be one of the Three Musketeers

OhioDodger

I keep hoping Outman can find his groove again. It would solve the CF situation against righties and give us a lefty on the bench. Outman/Edman platoon in CF.

Michael Norris

Karros and the entire pen were impressive last night. Knack, not so much. Gives up too many long balls. Jacques has some nasty stuff from the left side. Rosario and Kike with the big hits. Outman playing his way back to OKC.

Michael Norris

Conforto 3-3 with a double today.

Badger

Knack. Too many pitches in the same location up in the zone. He’s a pitcher that needs to move the ball up down in out with changes in velocity. It’s called command. Hit your spots with all your pitches. I recommend they all do that but management seems to prefer the 100 mph fastball.

Singing the Blue

Knack is a great guy to have on your roster if your first 6 or 8 starters all go down with injuries. Seems very likeable but as each of our young guys gets back from their various surgeries he falls farther down the depth chart.

His MLB future lies with a different franchise.

Cassidy

Thx for the heads up Jeff. Must see!

Singing the Blue

Do you happen to know what time the game is scheduled for?

Never mind, I just checked and it’s 6:05 Pacific time.

Last edited 2 months ago by Singing the Blue
Bklyn2LA57

Please just exchange Betts & Rojas and call it a day.

Badger

Me too.

Michael Norris

Betts is doing just fine at SS for now.

Bumsrap

I also saw that lineup for today and thought the same thing. It might indicate Outman is not making the team. The Texas starter is a righty. I like that Betts is the shortstop for the sake of continuity even if Rojas at short and Betts at second might be a better defense. Betts is the shortstop. Roberts is being smart.

If I can’t enjoy watching Outman then please, may Freedland hurry and become a Dodger. Short or 3rd, either one is good with me.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bumsrap
Cassidy

Kim just doesn’t have a good enough feel for the strike zone. He’s got a long ways to go

Michael Norris

Only if Mookie moves to another position.

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