LAD and Rumor Mills

I was working on my AA Tulsa Drillers Autopsy, but got hijacked with some speculative reports.

I read that Buster Olney said the belief that Rōki Sasaki is going to sign with LAD was unanimous in baseball circles.  Then I read that MLB executives (led by NYY and NYM) have gone to the Commissioner to complain that Sasaki had a handshake deal with the Dodgers, and that Manfred would investigate if warranted. Manfred said, “If there’s any reason to believe that there was a violation of one of our rules, you can rest assured that we will thoroughly investigate and try to get to the bottom of it.”

NYM and NYY were both peeved that the Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Could that be reason for them to ask the Commissioner to intervene for Sasaki?

Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, is one of the most respected agents in the industry.  Is he going to tarnish his reputation for such a pre-arranged handshake deal?

The key piece of evidence for these teams is that the Dodgers still have $2.5MM remaining in the 2024 IFA bonus pool.  Why would they still have that level of bonus dollars if Sasaki is not going to sign with LAD.  Well that and the Dallas Keuchel reporting there were rumblings that the Dodgers and Sasaki was a done deal.

Last Fall/Winter, AF went to Japan to scout Sasaki because it was rumored that he would be posted last year.  He was not posted, but AF and LAD strongly believed he would be posted in 2024 and retained $2.5MM just for him.  So the Dodgers should be punished for planning, which they do better than any other team.  Do they always make the right decision?  Does anybody?

Ironically, Manfred has already reported that Sasaki is going to be posted in 2025.  That puts the Dodgers in a hole.  They have $5,146,200 allotted for 2025.  That is $2.4MM less than the top bonus pool (8 teams).  And $1.115MM less than NYY and NYM.  Overall, only SFG has the same allotted bonus pool as LAD, giving 28 teams more bonus dollars than LAD.

What is so hypocritical about the complaining teams is that they have had handshake deals with the Dominican and the other Central and South American teenagers.  The number of players that will sign on January 15 is proof positive that $$$ were already pre-approved.  I have to believe that Jasson Dominguez was a handshake deal by NYY.

What is a shame is that if Sasaki signs with LAD, both Sasaki and the Dodgers will have negative press for some time.  If that does not sound plausible, I just read the same crap we heard last year on the unfair contract that the Dodgers and Ohtani signed.  That the commissioner should have voided the contract, regardless that it was 100% legal makes no difference to those who just hate the Dodgers.

Let’s see how many IFA sign on January 15 this year.  How many are going to walk away from their pre-arranged handshake deals so they can hold back $$$ for Sasaki.

If Juan Soto signs with NYM, does anyone believe that the teams who do not sign him will complain that Soto and NYM had a pre-arranged handshake deal?  If Steve Cohen declares he will outspend the next team by $50MM for Soto, isn’t that a pre-arranged deal for a Scott Boras client where $$$ is king?

IMO, I do not think Sasaki or Joel Wolfe are going to let a couple of million short term dollars sway Sasaki away from his best opportunity to make the most of his potential MLB career.  Whether he or Wolfe believes that the Dodgers are that team, we will have to wait to see.

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I understand that many LAD fans want Mookie to stay in RF just so the Dodgers can have Gavin Lux at 2B.  I certainly understand that sentimentality.  The fact that it is Mookie who wants to return to the infield is not understood by many.  Now the mantra for many of those fans is that if Mookie does not return to RF, he is selfish.  That is total hogwash.  Of course the Dodgers are looking to win again this year, but they are also looking long term.  Mookie still has 8 years with his contract.  If Mookie thinks his legs will hold out longer by playing infield, for me it is a no-brainer.  Whatever it takes for Mookie to play at an elite level longer is my preference.

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I have read numerous rumors of Lux to CWS in a Garrett Crochet deal. Heck, I have been one to perpetuate those rumors. The primary players make too much sense for both teams.  But Lux straight up for Crochet is not enough.  So who else do the Dodgers have to include.  If it is Dalton Rushing alone, there should be no hesitation.  Where it does become an issue is if another top 100 prospect has to be included.  This is where AF has generally been impossible to read.  A potential all-star 2B and 2 top 100 prospects for two years of Crochet probably seems a little too expensive for AF.

I do get the sense that the Dodgers will be more involved in trades than signing elite free agents.  As much as I like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, I cannot see AF spend the necessary $$$ to acquire the player, AND lose two draft picks and another $1MM in international bonus $$$.  The fact that Burnes is both a Boras client and with a QO makes it doubly difficult for me to believe the Dodgers are serious about Burnes, even though reports indicate LAD and Baltimore are the two favorites.  Is Burnes worth the loss of the 2^nd and 5^th top draft picks for LAD? Sure! Throw in 6-7 years at $200MM ++, and that is a lot to ponder.

While I do find it difficult to believe the Dodgers will seriously consider a Scott Boras client, I do think it is possible.  Two LHP come to mind: Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi.  Both figure to be 3 years (Snell) or 2 year deals (Kikuchi) with options, and that is something the Dodgers may be amenable to.  Not sure they have interest in either pitcher, but there are reports that the Dodgers have strong interest in both, and that Snell wants to sign early, and not repeat what happened last year.  I think that is important for Boras as well.

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The Dodgers have reportedly stated that they want a full time elite SS for the long term, and the pundits have put Willy Adames squarely on the LAD short list.  Are the Dodgers willing to spend $160MM + 2 draft picks +$1MM in IFA bonus $$$ to sign him?  With Edman, Miggy Ro, and CT3, the Dodgers have SS covered.  But there is not the long term SS they have talked about.

I do think they will check in on Ha-Seong Kim, but his labrum surgery may put a damper on his ability to throw from the hole, and that he is a better option for 2B.  He is not a better 2B than Lux, so if he cannot play SS, I doubt there will be a lot of interest. There is also a question as to when he will be able to play.  Doctors have pegged his return to late May or later, while Kim believes he will be able to return late April or early May.  That would seem to indicate that Kim will be a late signing closer to ST or into it.  With the options LAD has, that could play into the decision.

SS is such a critical position, the likelihood of a SS being traded to LAD would seem to require an overpay.  I like the idea of CJ Abrams, but what are the chances Washington would consider moving him without a big overpay.

I have heard the Dodgers should look for Ezequiel Tovar.  But why would Colorado trade him, and why would they trade him to the Dodgers?  Which of the following SS will be made available?

• Francisco Lindor
• Bobby Witt Jr.
• Corey Seager
• Elly De La Cruz
• Zach Neto
• Trea Turner
• Jeremy Peña

Maybe Peña.  I am sure the Braves would love to unload Orlando Arcia. While Carlos Correa could be moved this Winter, it will not be to the Dodgers.

I like Adames, but I am comfortable with Edman at SS and Rojas and Taylor backing him up, and saving the $$$ for pitching and the OF.

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I still believe the Dodgers will re-sign Teoscar Hernández.  I am sure they are trying to work towards a deal that both parties will agree to compromise on.    That will put Teo and Andy Pages in the corners, leaving CF open.  Internally, the Dodgers can give James Outman a second chance even if it is in a platoon role.

Many LAD fans believe that Luis Robert Jr. is a viable trade candidate.  A talented player but one who cannot stay healthy.  Over the last four seasons, he has averaged 103 games, with only one season > 100.  Because of his very favorable contract, the prospect capital is going to be expensive.  IMO, CWS is not going to deal him this winter after last year.  They are going to hope he rebounds and perhaps becomes a trade deadline target.

Like SS, the elite CF (offensive and defensive) are not going to be traded by their teams. What is the likelihood any of the following will be traded?

• Aaron Judge
• Jackson Merrill
• Brenton Doyle
• Corbin Carroll
• Jarren Duran – I would do cartwheels with my bad knee for this
• JJ Bleday – Oakland says no way they are trading Bleday or Brent Rooker
• Julio Rodriguez
• Michael Harris
• Pete Crow-Armstrong

My favorite scenario would be with LAD trading for one year of Kyle Tucker in RF, Teoscar in LF, and platooning Outman and Pages in CF.  Houston has the worst farm system in MLB and if they can turn Tucker into a couple of hot prospects, they would be crazy to not consider it.

Washington Nationals CF Jacob Young could be an interesting GG caliber CF acquisition at 25.  I am not sure he is a better option than Outman, but he could be.

I am now reading about some Jesse Winker to LA options.

One potential expensive ($$$) trade possibility has been brought up before, but it could very well be an option…Cody Bellinger.  2 years $52.5MM with $25MM as a player option for 2026.  That is a lot of cash for a 2.2 bWAR CF.  His bWAR would increase if he was only a CF.  Is he still a plus CF?  Agreed he is not a gifted as Pete Crow-Armstrong, but he is sure a better CF than Andy Pages.

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The trouble with rumors is everyone has one. They are not worth spit until one actually materializes.  The Dodgers are involved in well over a dozen such rumors, and none are close to materializing.  The number of SP the Dodgers have been connected to is lengthy.  Burnes, Snell, Kikuchi and Sasaki do not begin to scratch the surface.  There are 16 days until the Winter Meetings begin.  And after all of the players have or have not been tendered a contract on Friday, more players will begin to move.  We are getting closer for big names to change teams.

Rumors change everyday. I try to focus more on what I think the Dodgers will do, not necessarily what I want them to do.  I generally preface what I prefer with such a statement.  My Kyle Tucker statement above was such a statement