I was working on my AA Tulsa Drillers Autopsy, but got hijacked with some speculative reports.
I read that Buster Olney said the belief that Rōki Sasaki is going to sign with LAD was unanimous in baseball circles. Then I read that MLB executives (led by NYY and NYM) have gone to the Commissioner to complain that Sasaki had a handshake deal with the Dodgers, and that Manfred would investigate if warranted. Manfred said, “If there’s any reason to believe that there was a violation of one of our rules, you can rest assured that we will thoroughly investigate and try to get to the bottom of it.”
NYM and NYY were both peeved that the Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Could that be reason for them to ask the Commissioner to intervene for Sasaki?
Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, is one of the most respected agents in the industry. Is he going to tarnish his reputation for such a pre-arranged handshake deal?
The key piece of evidence for these teams is that the Dodgers still have $2.5MM remaining in the 2024 IFA bonus pool. Why would they still have that level of bonus dollars if Sasaki is not going to sign with LAD. Well that and the Dallas Keuchel reporting there were rumblings that the Dodgers and Sasaki was a done deal.
Last Fall/Winter, AF went to Japan to scout Sasaki because it was rumored that he would be posted last year. He was not posted, but AF and LAD strongly believed he would be posted in 2024 and retained $2.5MM just for him. So the Dodgers should be punished for planning, which they do better than any other team. Do they always make the right decision? Does anybody?
Ironically, Manfred has already reported that Sasaki is going to be posted in 2025. That puts the Dodgers in a hole. They have $5,146,200 allotted for 2025. That is $2.4MM less than the top bonus pool (8 teams). And $1.115MM less than NYY and NYM. Overall, only SFG has the same allotted bonus pool as LAD, giving 28 teams more bonus dollars than LAD.
What is so hypocritical about the complaining teams is that they have had handshake deals with the Dominican and the other Central and South American teenagers. The number of players that will sign on January 15 is proof positive that $$$ were already pre-approved. I have to believe that Jasson Dominguez was a handshake deal by NYY.
What is a shame is that if Sasaki signs with LAD, both Sasaki and the Dodgers will have negative press for some time. If that does not sound plausible, I just read the same crap we heard last year on the unfair contract that the Dodgers and Ohtani signed. That the commissioner should have voided the contract, regardless that it was 100% legal makes no difference to those who just hate the Dodgers.
Let’s see how many IFA sign on January 15 this year. How many are going to walk away from their pre-arranged handshake deals so they can hold back $$$ for Sasaki.
If Juan Soto signs with NYM, does anyone believe that the teams who do not sign him will complain that Soto and NYM had a pre-arranged handshake deal? If Steve Cohen declares he will outspend the next team by $50MM for Soto, isn’t that a pre-arranged deal for a Scott Boras client where $$$ is king?
IMO, I do not think Sasaki or Joel Wolfe are going to let a couple of million short term dollars sway Sasaki away from his best opportunity to make the most of his potential MLB career. Whether he or Wolfe believes that the Dodgers are that team, we will have to wait to see.
——————–
I understand that many LAD fans want Mookie to stay in RF just so the Dodgers can have Gavin Lux at 2B. I certainly understand that sentimentality. The fact that it is Mookie who wants to return to the infield is not understood by many. Now the mantra for many of those fans is that if Mookie does not return to RF, he is selfish. That is total hogwash. Of course the Dodgers are looking to win again this year, but they are also looking long term. Mookie still has 8 years with his contract. If Mookie thinks his legs will hold out longer by playing infield, for me it is a no-brainer. Whatever it takes for Mookie to play at an elite level longer is my preference.
——————–
I have read numerous rumors of Lux to CWS in a Garrett Crochet deal. Heck, I have been one to perpetuate those rumors. The primary players make too much sense for both teams. But Lux straight up for Crochet is not enough. So who else do the Dodgers have to include. If it is Dalton Rushing alone, there should be no hesitation. Where it does become an issue is if another top 100 prospect has to be included. This is where AF has generally been impossible to read. A potential all-star 2B and 2 top 100 prospects for two years of Crochet probably seems a little too expensive for AF.
I do get the sense that the Dodgers will be more involved in trades than signing elite free agents. As much as I like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, I cannot see AF spend the necessary $$$ to acquire the player, AND lose two draft picks and another $1MM in international bonus $$$. The fact that Burnes is both a Boras client and with a QO makes it doubly difficult for me to believe the Dodgers are serious about Burnes, even though reports indicate LAD and Baltimore are the two favorites. Is Burnes worth the loss of the 2nd and 5th top draft picks for LAD? Sure! Throw in 6-7 years at $200MM ++, and that is a lot to ponder.
While I do find it difficult to believe the Dodgers will seriously consider a Scott Boras client, I do think it is possible. Two LHP come to mind: Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi. Both figure to be 3 years (Snell) or 2 year deals (Kikuchi) with options, and that is something the Dodgers may be amenable to. Not sure they have interest in either pitcher, but there are reports that the Dodgers have strong interest in both, and that Snell wants to sign early, and not repeat what happened last year. I think that is important for Boras as well.
——————–
The Dodgers have reportedly stated that they want a full time elite SS for the long term, and the pundits have put Willy Adames squarely on the LAD short list. Are the Dodgers willing to spend $160MM + 2 draft picks +$1MM in IFA bonus $$$ to sign him? With Edman, Miggy Ro, and CT3, the Dodgers have SS covered. But there is not the long term SS they have talked about.
I do think they will check in on Ha-Seong Kim, but his labrum surgery may put a damper on his ability to throw from the hole, and that he is a better option for 2B. He is not a better 2B than Lux, so if he cannot play SS, I doubt there will be a lot of interest. There is also a question as to when he will be able to play. Doctors have pegged his return to late May or later, while Kim believes he will be able to return late April or early May. That would seem to indicate that Kim will be a late signing closer to ST or into it. With the options LAD has, that could play into the decision.
SS is such a critical position, the likelihood of a SS being traded to LAD would seem to require an overpay. I like the idea of CJ Abrams, but what are the chances Washington would consider moving him without a big overpay.
I have heard the Dodgers should look for Ezequiel Tovar. But why would Colorado trade him, and why would they trade him to the Dodgers? Which of the following SS will be made available?
- Francisco Lindor
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Corey Seager
- Elly De La Cruz
- Zach Neto
- Trea Turner
- Jeremy Peña
Maybe Peña. I am sure the Braves would love to unload Orlando Arcia. While Carlos Correa could be moved this Winter, it will not be to the Dodgers.
I like Adames, but I am comfortable with Edman at SS and Rojas and Taylor backing him up, and saving the $$$ for pitching and the OF.
——————–
I still believe the Dodgers will re-sign Teoscar Hernández. I am sure they are trying to work towards a deal that both parties will agree to compromise on. That will put Teo and Andy Pages in the corners, leaving CF open. Internally, the Dodgers can give James Outman a second chance even if it is in a platoon role.
Many LAD fans believe that Luis Robert Jr. is a viable trade candidate. A talented player but one who cannot stay healthy. Over the last four seasons, he has averaged 103 games, with only one season > 100. Because of his very favorable contract, the prospect capital is going to be expensive. IMO, CWS is not going to deal him this winter after last year. They are going to hope he rebounds and perhaps becomes a trade deadline target.
Like SS, the elite CF (offensive and defensive) are not going to be traded by their teams. What is the likelihood any of the following will be traded?
- Aaron Judge
- Jackson Merrill
- Brenton Doyle
- Corbin Carroll
- Jarren Duran – I would do cartwheels with my bad knee for this
- JJ Bleday – Oakland says no way they are trading Bleday or Brent Rooker
- Julio Rodriguez
- Michael Harris
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
My favorite scenario would be with LAD trading for one year of Kyle Tucker in RF, Teoscar in LF, and platooning Outman and Pages in CF. Houston has the worst farm system in MLB and if they can turn Tucker into a couple of hot prospects, they would be crazy to not consider it.
Washington Nationals CF Jacob Young could be an interesting GG caliber CF acquisition at 25. I am not sure he is a better option than Outman, but he could be.
I am now reading about some Jesse Winker to LA options.
One potential expensive ($$$) trade possibility has been brought up before, but it could very well be an option…Cody Bellinger. 2 years $52.5MM with $25MM as a player option for 2026. That is a lot of cash for a 2.2 bWAR CF. His bWAR would increase if he was only a CF. Is he still a plus CF? Agreed he is not a gifted as Pete Crow-Armstrong, but he is sure a better CF than Andy Pages.
——————–
The trouble with rumors is everyone has one. They are not worth spit until one actually materializes. The Dodgers are involved in well over a dozen such rumors, and none are close to materializing. The number of SP the Dodgers have been connected to is lengthy. Burnes, Snell, Kikuchi and Sasaki do not begin to scratch the surface. There are 16 days until the Winter Meetings begin. And after all of the players have or have not been tendered a contract on Friday, more players will begin to move. We are getting closer for big names to change teams.
Rumors change everyday. I try to focus more on what I think the Dodgers will do, not necessarily what I want them to do. I generally preface what I prefer with such a statement. My Kyle Tucker statement above was such a statement
Mookie came up as a 2B. He switched positions because Red Sox had Pedroia.
If moving back the 2B lessens the wear and tear on his body and makes him happy, I am all in. Too bad Lux can’t play LF.
I believe Lux has one more year to go on his contract. Why not just leave him at 2nd and Mookie in RF. Mookie can move to second when Lux’s contract is up. Then Pages/Edman/Outman or some combo can play CF. I’m assuming Teo is back in LF.
Lux is not a free agent until 2027.
Because Mookie wants to move back to the infield and there will be less stress on his legs. Lux is a tradable commodity.
Bear, I know that’s the conventional thinking but in my day I played the outfield and occasionally the infield. The infield was always harder on my feet and legs. A lot more moving around on the hard infield dirt vs the grass of the outfield.
Mookie prefers the infield. I played outfield and first base. I liked first base better because I was in on the action more. Too much standing around in the outfield. I had games out there where I did not get a single ball hit to me. Mookie is a better defender than Lux, and a much better offensive threat. But the main reason he is moving back is simple. He is the star; he has a long-term contract.
The Dodgers tried Lux in the OF a few seasons back and it was not pretty.
It seems strange to me that a guy who grew up playing SS would have so much trouble shifting to the OF. Obviously it wasn’t a problem for the Padres’ Jackson Merrill–or Mookie. Took the Dodgers brass a looong time to figure out Lux didn’t really have the arm to play a quality SS.
Lux should go to a team that won’t platoon him. If he starts hitting lefties, he could still be a star.
Yes, and I remember when he crashed into the wall, and Belli and a couple other guys put one of those body outlines on the left field wall. It was hilarious. Vargas could not make the transition either.
I’m one of the few that would give Lux another shot at short. Does anyone know how Lux’ arm compares with Edmand’s?
His arm is not the problem. The problem is his head. He just has a hard time making the plays, they moved Mookie to short for a reason.
If it were his head it was because he worried about his knee. That knee has healed.
He has Sax’s disease when he plays SS. Tentative with his throws. It is mental
Thankfully, that ship has sailed.
None of the transactions you mentioned may even get close to happening but it sure is fun to contemplate them.
Question: If we sign someone that causes us to lose that 1 mil in IFA bonus money is that money lost in 2024, 2025 or 2026? I ask the question because they probably don’t want to lose the money for the 2025 signing season if that’s when Sasaki will come out.
2026 – They already lost their $1MM in 2025 for signing Ohtani.
Thanks.
If they had known that Sasaki was probably going to post in 2025, I’m sure they would never have signed Ohtani and lost that $1MM. 😂
Totally agree with all you wrote Jeff. I never believe a rumor until I see the actual move in print…and then I question my eyesight. So happy for Ohtani, he joins Frank Robinson as the only two players in MLB history to win an MVP award in both leagues. Now I would love to see Mookie win one in the NL.
Me too. Mookie is certainly capable.
Guessing is what we do every winter. And my crystal ball is among the most inaccurate in the entire blogosphere. The big moves that have happened over the last decade I didn’t see coming. I’m assuming the same thing happens again this winter.
That said, what makes sense this morning? Is Andy Pages an everyday corner outfielder for the team that plans to repeat as champions? Is Edman a starting shortstop? Is Outman really in the plans? Will the Dodgers try to do it again with a broken starting staff that ranked below middle of the pack in ‘24.
The answer to these questions is clear. I have no idea what the Dodgers will do. I’m playing 8th grade checkers here while Professor Friedman is teaching three dimensional chess.
So, on my checkerboard I’ve got Teo, Jr, Adames, Fried, Flaherty, Burnes, Crochet, a couple of front line relievers and tee it all up in Feb/March.
On a junior high checkerboard this GM sh*t is easy.
We can’t field all-world players at every position:
All-world: Ohtani (DH), Betts (2B), Freeman (1B)
Very good: Smith (C), Teoscar (LF)/unsigned
Solid: Muncy (3B), Edman (SS/CF)
?: Pages (RF), Rushing (LF?), Lux (??)
It was our pitching that fell apart last year. As long as we bring back Teo or add Adames our offense is fine.
💯
“We can’t field all-world players at every position:”
No sh*t.
I was being facetious.
Blithe capering clearly doesn’t work with everyone does it.
Get off my nuts
Don’t be a troll.
Does it hinder our chances of signing or trading for a top starter going to a 6 man rotation?
I doubt it. Taking the ball at his turn in a 6 man would still give a pitcher 27 starts and 150 innings. At age 30 I think Burnes could live with that. Many starters are already there. And if innings is important go 7 27 times. 189 innings.
At this point in history, isn’t it always about money?
I do not believe Badger was trying to field All Stars at every position. The only two position players he mentioned were Teo and Adames. Both highly rumored to be LAD targets. The others were pitchers. It is more than conceivable the AF/BG will sign or trade for at least 2 SP and one or both will be LH. For me, Crochet is the easiest because you only have to convince Chris Getz that Lux and prospects are enough of a return.
Jeff, what’s your opinion on Snell?
I like Snell…a lot. He was/is one of my real hopeful FA signings. He is a much needed LHP, with a career 3.19 ERA and a career 3.35 FIP. He is a slow starter in the season, but finishes strong. He has a career 11.2 K/9. According to Baseball Reference, that is an All Time career record. That seems low for a career high, but that is what BR is reporting. He does walk a few too many. I do think he is willing to sign a 3 year high AAV deal. He will be 32 next year. His chances at winning a WS are greater with LAD than SFG or any other team. No qualifying offer. I am all in on Blake Snell. I was last year as well.
Yeah, me too.
And the off year he had with the giants?
I always lose that tri-level chess, pinocle was my game.
Euchre and Spades for me.
Are not most likely international signings agreed to before the player is eligible?
YES!!! That is the hypocrisy of the teams complaining to the commissioner. The difference is that those teams are agreeing to millions on handshake deals for 16 year olds while Sasaki is near MLB All Star ready. Now there are journalists that are hoping Sasaki signs with any team other than the Dodgers.
People love to complain. Doesn’t mean they need to be listened to, unless of course those doing the complaining are complaining to someone who works for them.
I see MLBTR has Dustin May on there list of non tender candidates. No way the Dodgers non tender May.
It is all guess work. I do not think May returns as a starter, but he could be one hell of a weapon out of the pen.
He has been on that list for over a month. I said the same as you multiple times. The Dodgers can afford $2.135MM for May. So if they do in fact non tender him, it will not be because of the $$$. This is his 3rd year of arbitration. His last game pitched was May 17, 2023, and that lasted 1.0 IP before he left with the injury. He has no options available. Do they trust him to stay healthy for the full year? Maybe other teams are not willing to take that chance as he becomes a free agent at the end of the year. I agree with you, even with all the roadblocks, how do you just let him walk?
At least they took Tony Gonsolin off their original list.
Thanks for the write up Jeff, we throw out lots of ideas one or two at a time, it was nice to see a lot of these options all at one time in an organized fashion.
One of the MLB Network shows showed both May and Gonsolon in the current Dodger rotation to start the 2025 season. I have for a few years now wanted to trade May.
He would be a one-year rental. He really has no trade value after not pitching for nearly 2 years. IMO, the best use of May is in the bullpen where his stuff will play well.
He’s got a great arm. After you trade Max you can make him your third baseman.
Why do you want to trade Max?
Non tender day, is that a day when you are supposed to avoid chicken tenders??? I am a huge country music fan, but the CMA awards are a joke. If the crap they play now is country, I am Jackie Robinson.
Bear, I agree
Hey Bear. I grew up listening to real country. Flatt and Scruggs, Hank Williams Sr., Roy Acuff, Bill Monroe, George Jones, Conway Twitty, Loretta Lynn, etc…
I was more into Rock and Roll but my dad was a country music fan and I was subjected to a lot of country music. It was not my favorite, but I did enjoy it and still have happy memories when I hear those old country classics.
Willie, Waylon, Merle. I do a lot of their stuff when I play. Love Alabama too.
Longenhagen chat:
John Do the Dodgers move Rushing to the OF so they can fit his bat in sooner? Or focus more on developing his skills as a C.
Eric A Longenhagen I wouldn’t be dying to move him out from behind the plate, you need to have depth at that position because it’s so brutal.
Guest Is Cartaya out of the picture as a prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen No, catchers take forever. He’s flawed, you hope he’s Zunino type or becomes Tyler Flowers or something
Junior Marin Is there any specific data/trait from DSL prospects that you believe to be a decent predictor of success once the prospects come stateside?
Eric A Longenhagen Way more noise than signal for DSL data due to competition quality. I think you can identify red flags in chase and contact rates, but big DSL exit velos are often a product of physical maturity rather than skill.
Dan Szymborski chat:
Gray: How much of a chance do you think Felix has to stay on the ballot for a second year?
Dan Szymborski: 50/50 Remember, when Santana was voted on, NONE of the internet-only or internet-mostly writers had 10 years in the BBWAA. The BBWAA only started allowing internet writers to join in 2007. Next year is a pretty big sea change for the Hall ballot even if none of the current writers from the Class of 2016 die or abandon their membership in 2025, there are something like *80* new voters next year. Including 26 MLB.com writers. That was the year they started allowing MLB.com writers to join…. Some of the writers who get votes next year: Apstein, Bastian, Mark Bowman, Maury Brown, Callis, Casavell, Castrovince, Footer, Ghiroli, Harding, Hoch, Karabell, Langosch, Mayo, McTaggart, Melewski, Meoli, Merkin, Doug/Bryce Miller, Nicholson-Smith, Petriello, Jesse Sanchez, Sheldon, Eric Stephen, Szymborski, Zolecki, Zimmerman
Guest: Who will end up up with a better career Betts or Judge?
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says Betts by a hair. Both are projected to finish top 10 in JAWS among RF
Longenhagen on Dreyer being added to the 40:
Jack Dreyer, SIRP 25.7 yeard old FV:40+
Another sly draft-and-development success for the Dodgers, Dreyer has three good pitches and might end up working in higher-leverage spots. Injuries forced the Dodgers to roster a lot of young, green pitching in 2024, and a pretty big chunk of their 40-man is made up of Nick Frasso, Edgardo Henriquez, and Justin Wrobleski — talented young arms who lack much experience, let alone the kind you’d want while you defend your title.
The Future Dodgers guy on the 40:
Sees Ward, of course, Gauthier and maybe Keith to be selected. Thankfully not Duran.
I can see Ward being drafted in the Rule 5. At least I hope he is. Maybe he can stick with a team like Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh, CWS, or Miami. I hope so. He would not make the LAD 26 man. Is Gauthier really ready to stick on a 26 man all season? IMO, Damon Keith will not be picked in the Rule 5 MLB portion, and he will be protected for the MiLB portion.
I do not disagree with Logenhagen on Rushing. His prospect value is as an offensive catcher. But that raises the issue, what is best for LAD? With Will Smith on a ten year contract as the everyday catcher, he is only a backup catcher for LAD. If he can be included in a deal for an elite pitcher, that would seem to me the best use of Rushing.
On Cartaya, IMO his best use will be as a backup catcher for the Dodgers. His Tyler Flowers potential comp is a good one. Flowers had a very nice career as a backup catcher. Same as with the Mike Zunino potential comp. The problem with Cartaya is that he will have zero options after this year. Is he good enough to be a backup catcher on the 26 man for the next several years until he becomes a FA? He will certainly get his chance after Austin Barnes moves on.
Jeff: “Rumors change everyday. I try to focus more on what I think the Dodgers will do, not necessarily what I want them to do. I generally preface what I prefer with such a statement. My Kyle Tucker statement above was such a statement”
I tend to focus on what I want the Dodgers to do. For example, trade Taylor for Montgomery. AZ wants to dump his contract and would probably eat a lot of his remaining year cost.
Signing Sasaki could result in trading Miller.
The.
Dodgers.
Don’t.
Trade.
Players.
When.
Their.
Value.
Is.
Lowest.
Except when it is a low for a low.
Like when?
And Miller’s value is at the nadir, the lowest. Not a low.
Would the Dodgers consider signing Snell simply because there is no QO attached to him? He is a Boras client.
I think the Dodgers and AF do their due diligence on everyone. Snell is certainly in play. I would prefer they resign Buehler and go hard for Sasaki. Resign Teo and go after Adames.
It’s great to be a dodger fan Keeping Buhler getting Sasaki keeping te Oscar Hernandez and signing Kiki are my choices to keep.
I wish the Dodgers could figure out a way to keep Kike and unload Taylor.
Kike won’t be back unless Taylor is gone. They are basically the same guy.
Snell went from 180 innings, a 6+ WAR CYA winner to 2 WAR 104 innings. Why? Groin? Is that it? Those can linger, anyone who has had that problem knows.
Yes. The Dodgers have always been willing to negotiate with Boras on a lesser term higher AAV deal. Maybe Snell would accept it with the Dodgers.
It is also conceivable that AF/BG will sign or trade for relievers. IMO, it will not be Tanner Scott. After the KJ 5 year deal that did not pan, the longest deal for a reliever he signed was 3 years to Joe Kelly, and that did not go well either. The Dodgers believe they can “fix” relievers. They have too many times to ignore that. They may already have that pitcher. They just signed 25 year old RHP Justin Jarvis to a MiLB deal. What makes him a realistic target is that he has an average 19 inch Induced Vertical Break (IVB) from a 5′ 9″ release height. Now that rises a bunch. He was a full time starter until last year. Like many LAD prospect pitchers, he has a problem commanding his pitches.
They also just signed 30 year old LHRP Joe Jacques with a ST Invite. He is a groundball specialist, that is very good at keeping the ball in the yard. He spent most of the year in Reno, and remarkedly he did not allow a HR. Unfortunately for him, his one MLB appearance with AZ did not go well. In 1.1 IP he allowed 3 hits, one walk, 2 runs, and a HR, his first since 2023. It was the only HR he allowed all year.
And of course no LAD offseason would be complete without their bevy of utility player signings. The first is 24 year old utility infielder Aaron Bracho. Bracho was originally signed by Cleveland out of Venezuela as a 16 year old. He moved up the prospect list as was quickly a top 10 Cleveland prospect after 2019. He is Rule 5 eligible.
Not a Guano Joe fan. I never understood AF’s fascination with him. F**cking Bum. Wasted $9M last year.
Take May off the non-tender list. He agreed to a $2.135MM one year deal.
Never in doubt.
So far 8 non-tender candidate players have agreed to a one-year contract, and only Austin Hayes has been non-tendered by Philadelphia. All lists have to be submitted by 5:00 PM (PT) today.
Baseball America’s Future Projection Podcast focuses on the NL West.
Pretty much Dodgers and Rockies are called the best systems in the NL West. Both hosts (Ben and Carlos) favor the Dodgers of those two.
Three things:
First, the Dodgers depth is remarkable.
Second, More than 10 years in a row the Dodgers have had a top-10 farm system.
Third: Lots of time on Rushing and Hope, but also a nice discursion on Eduardo Quintero.
Worth a listen:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/future-projection-a-baseball-america-podcast/
Cubs are willing to trade Bellinger. Any interest from the Dodgers????
Trade Ct3 and whatever you guys think will equal the value.
KT3 has no trade value.
You mean CT-3.
Yes!! It depends on how much $$$ Cubs are willing to eat. But maybe the Cubs are a little bitter about the return they gave LAD for the Michael Busch trade of last year. Both Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris are top 5 LAD prospects per Baseball America’s just released top 10.
Oakland seems interested in Bellinger.
Well, Dodgers eat Bellingers contract and the Cubs eat Taylors contract. Not sure how motivated the Cubs are to unload Bellingers contract. He is owed $27,500,000.00 this year and has a player option for $25M next year. Taylor is owed $15M. If the Cubs took Taylor in trade for Bellinger, they would save $12.5M this year and not he on the hook for the $25M next year. Is Bellinger worth it?? Would solve the CF conundrum. Belli in CF and Edman at SS.
Robert jr has more upside
Likely true, but who’s floor is higher? Robert Jr would also cost wayyyyy more in prospects than Belli
I think Bellinger is a better option than Robert junior As far as quality goes you’ll get more games played
I like the idea of Bellinger as the solution in CF and Edman at SS. Let’s use our $$$ to load up on additional pitching options….
IF we would actually trade for Belli, would we be getting the guy who played in Chicago the last couple of years or the guy who was so incredibly dismal in LA before he got to Chicago?
Maybe his total lack of success those last years here was mostly mental (putting too much pressure on himself to produce like an MVP player), and who’s to say that wouldn’t happen all over again if he came back?
That said, if the Cubs would be willing to do a one-for-one trade for CT3 (and I’m thinking there is no way they would), it would certainly be worth the gamble.
Bellinger would be a much better player with the guys around him that they have now. He would not have to carry the load, nor would he be expected to.
Not even close. Bellinger has more power, has at least been healthy enough to play 100 plus games consistently and he is an elite center fielder.
What would I like to see that is at least plausible.
Sign Teoscar Hernández
Sign Yusei Kikuchi
Sign Rōki Sasaki
Trade for Cody Bellinger
Trade for Garrett Crochet
I am a Blake Snell fan, but the problem with Snell is that he has only pitched to a value greater than $25MM three times in his career. He has averaged about $20MM value/year in his 9 year career, and that was in his productive years. The Dodgers offering Snell 5 years is a stretch. Even offering him 3 years at $35MM is a stretch.
Kikuchi would be a mid to back of the rotation starter. His largest contract was 3 years $36MM. Reportedly Boras is looking for 3 years and closer to $20MM AAV. He has averaged nearly $24MM value per year the last two years. So $20MM is not a stretch. Like LAD, Houston has a good reputation for “fixing” and developing pitchers. They adjusted his pitch mix and sequencing last year and the results were fantastic. Less reliance on curve and more reliance on fastball and change. He is a workhorse of sorts having pitched 175.2 and 167.2 innings the last two years. He seems like the ideal LAD mid to back end rotation starter they can use.
The Dodgers 1-2 punch at the start of the season will be Yamamoto and Glasnow. Ohtani will join them at some point in the season. If they trade for Crochet, that will be a tough playoff rotation, and Sasaki and Kikuchi would make them even more lethal. Kershaw will join them at some point.
Yamamoto will go into the season as one of the favorites to win CY. After the disastrous start in Korea, Yamamoto started 17 games and compiled a 2.53 ERA and 2.58 FIP. He has 103 K and only 21 BB in 89.0 IP. Batters slashed .222/.265/.350/.616 against him. Yamamoto is 26 and IMO is an Ace. If Glasnow stays healthy (I know BIG IF), he will also garner significant support for CY. He is making adjustments to his delivery that will take pressure of his elbow, and he is changing his winter workout regime. He will begin throwing in January and will be ready by ST. It will be very difficult to find a better 1-2 punch.
IMO, Willy Adames will price himself out for LAD, and they do have viable SS options. I think Buster Posey will make a compelling offer to get him in SF. They need a face for the team, and that is not Matt Chapman.
LAD can certainly take on the full Bellinger contract. Are they willing to?
No qualifying offers to deal with, and the 2025 team is potentially better than 2024.
I could see no market developing for Kikuchi and thus the Dodgers getting him to a reasonable contract.
Buehler even more likely, IMO, for a value contract. Or Bieber.
I keep thinking about how weird the team’s 40 man roster is. I know a lot of it is because so many pitchers had to be rostered last year, but it’s still 24 pitchers! 4 catchers! Only 4 OFs.
If a ludicrously unlikely trade for Crochet does happen, they have to move multiple 40 man pitchers IMO.
The A’s were interested in Buehler, until he told them he has no interest playing in Sacramento in a minor league stadium. Two AL teams will be playing in venues with less than 15,000 seats. A’s and Rays.
I do think Bieber makes sense on an incentive laden contract for half a year (2025) and a very achievable vesting option for 2026. Apparantly Bieber and Cleveland have mutual interest for him to stay in Cleveland.
Why go for Beiber when Buehler is a much better option?
As per the great Tony Kornheiser:
TV wizard Don Ohlmeyer, a far smarter man than I, once told me, “The answer to all your questions is: Money.”
I am not sure why you say Buehler is a much better option. Bieber is a CY winner and has only had one TJ surgery.
Bieber – 843.0 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.115 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 5.10 K/BB, 133 ERA+, bWAR 17.7, fWAR 21.5 ($171.9MM value)
Buehler – 713.2 IP, 3.27 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.090 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.97 K/BB, 123 ERA+, bWAR 12.2, fWAR 15.0 ($120.4MM value)
I am also not convinced Buehler wants to stay with LAD. Bieber is from Santa Barbara and grew uo a big LAD fan.
If Buehler re-signs with LAD I will be happy. I have been a Buehler fan since he was drafted. I can wear my Buehler jersey awhile longer. But I really do not agree he is a better option than Bieber.
Everything you say makes sense but I really like the way the team would lay out with Adames at short and Edman and Teoscar in the OF. It seems that might be slipping more into dream status rather than possibility.
I do not disagree with Adames at SS. I prefer him as the fulltime SS. But every team, including LAD, has their spending limits. The Dodgers need an OF more than a SS, and they may not be willing to spend on $160MM + for a SS, and another approx $75MM for Teoscar, all the while when they also need SP.
Possibility of 4 Japanese pitchers in the rotation. That would be a first.
That would be the three SP who started for Japan when they won the WBC, plus Kikuchi. That’s a pretty good rotation without Glasnow, Gonsolin, May, Kershaw, Miller, Frasso, and perhaps Jackson Ferris later in the year. That does not take into consideration Emmet Sheehan mid year, Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, or Justin Wrobleski.
This!
Because so many starting pitchers had to get onto the 40 last year. There’s actually a potential limit on who the team could be inclined to acquire.
Beiber, in theory, starts the season on the 60 with a bevy of others.
As an everyday reader and occasional poster, I’m starting to worry about Ohio Dodgers and his distaste for Chris Taylor. Perhaps it’s a personal issue.
Ohio Dodger has always been down on CT3, but I am sure it is not personal. I disagree with him on Taylor, but I am sure many would disagree with me on other players. We all have favorites and those we do not like.
It looks like KC and Cincinnati have agreed on the first “big” trade od the season. KC to send RHSP Brady Singer to Cincinnati for 2B Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer. I actually like this trade for both teams.
The Dodgers have non tendered Brent Honeywell and Zach Logue. Bear was right and I was wrong on Logue. It still does not make sense to me. The LAD 40 man is now down to 36. That is a healthy number of 40 man spots available. When ST begins the Dodgers can (not that they will) put the following on the 60 day IL.
The Dodgers also signed Tony Gonsolin to a one year $5.4MM contract.
You forgot River Ryan. He is still on the 40-man. And he will miss all of next season too. As for Logue, I never understood why they signed him in the first place other than he is left-handed and they were short on leftie relievers.
Perhaps the best overall MLB catcher, Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, has chosen to drop Scott Boras as his agent. He will now be represented by Excel Sports Management. This could be a result of Boras’ failed negotiations from 2023-2024. This may push Boras to pull the trigger sooner than he may have previously wanted to. Players that want top dollar will still want to be represented by Boras, while those that top $$$ is not the ultimate goal, but have other things they are more motivated by, may move to other representation. Some Boras agents have agreed to terms that did not include top $$$ because they wanted to stay where they were: Jose Altuve and Stephen Strasburg. They got paid handsomely, but they could have received more $$$.
Washington has non-tendered RHRP closer Kyle Finnegan and RHRP Tanner Rainey. I would bet that the Dodgers will check in on both, especially Finnegan. Finnegan had 38 saves in 2024. He had 5 blown saves. He had 3 out of 11 inherited runners score.
Rainey had no saves or blown saves. He allowed 1 of 7 inherited runners to score.
There will be plenty of other options, and I think the Dodgers will take their time identifying the best relievers for the needed roles.
Jays non-tendered Jason Romano. I’m thinking AF might have some interest there also. He should be ready to go by ST.
I like Jordan Romano and he could be a good reclamation project for LAD. A career sub 3.00 ERA. Career 11.2 K/9. Two time all star with two years (2022 and 2023) of 36 saves eah year against 6 and 4 blown saves. 23 saves and 1 blown save in 2021. I prefer Romano to Finnegan. Romano was shut down July 2 for good with elbow inflammation, and later had arthroscopic surgery to repair impingement in elbow. He began his throwing program in September.
Well, I finally got one right.
When McCullough got the Marlins job, I predicted Chris Woodward might come back but this time as the first base coach. That was confirmed today.
I admit, not exactly a tough one to predict.
I was pulling for Travis Barbary, but Woodward is a good choice.