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LAD Organizational Pitching Depth

I have been trying to do an organizational dive into the LAD pitcher prospects.  But now I have to wonder why.  Just how many are going to be long term pitchers for LAD?

The Dodgers have told everyone who will listen that they plan on a 6-man rotation.

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto
  • Blake Snell
  • Tyler Glasnow
  • Roki Sasaki (3 options)
  • Tony Gonsolin (1 option)
  • Dustin May (no options) or Landon Knack (2 options)

Since Dustin May has no options, he has to be considered in the #6 role until Ohtani joins the rotation, then moves to bullpen.

Bullpen

  • Tanner Scott
  • Kirby Yates
  • Blake Treinen
  • Evan Phillips
  • Alex Vesia
  • Anthony Banda
  • Ryan Brasier

Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol will start the season on the IL.  Room will need to be made on the 26 man once they are healthy.  Currently, Kopech is going to miss at least April.  If that is all he will miss, he should be able to rejoin LAD about the same time as Ohtani joins the rotation.  Once Kopech is back, only Alex Vesia has an option, or there is going to be a mysterious injury.  I know…another AF specialty.

That leaves MLB pitchers, Landon Knack (27), Bobby Miller (26), Ben Casparius (26), Justin Wrobleski (24) and MiLB pitcher Nick Frasso (26), all ready to pitch at the MLB level.

That is five pitchers that are not really considered top of the rotation starters (maybe Miller), and only Wrobleski is under 25.  As long as they are with the Dodgers, their expected earning level is going to be diminished, as they are really only insurance for the LAD rotation.

I am sorry, but that is unfair to the pitcher.  Knack, Miller, Casparius, and Wrobleski all have (or will have) WS rings.  Now that they have that ring, I bet they want to pitch for a MLB team to enhance their earning power.  They will all be on the other side of 30 before they can reach FA status.  Their arbitration years will be diluted as long as they remain AAAA status.  Knack, Miller, Wrobleski, and Frasso have 2 options remaining and Casparius has 3.  They have only so many years to max out their earning power. I can’t imagine they are thrilled with spending as much time in AAA to prove themselves.

The same is true with the bullpen.  The Dodgers have MLB pitchers Edgardo Henriquez (23) and Michael Grove (28), plus MiLB pitcher Jack Dreyer (26) in the OKC bullpen, with Giovanny Gallegos (33).  Are the Dodgers trying to build a juggernaut AAA pitching staff?  There is no room for the LAD AAAA starters to join the bullpen either.  BTW, who is going to be that multi-inning reliever…the Brent Honeywell.

Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan are due to join the MLB team some time in the year.  Timing for both is unknown, but Kersh will be ready sooner than Sheehan.

We also need to consider that Gavin Stone, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt will be ready for 2026.  The domino affect starts to take over.

What becomes of these LAD top 30 prospects who are considered SP:

  • Jackson Ferris – 22 years old at Tulsa (AA)
  • Hyun-Seok Jang – 21 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
  • Maddux Bruns – 22 years old at Great Lakes (A+)
  • Patrick Copen – 23 years old at Great Lakes (A+)
  • Jared Karros – 24 years old at Tulsa (AA)
  • Peter Heubeck – 22 years old at Tulsa (AA)
  • Samuel Sanchez – 19 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)
  • Payton Martin – 21 years old at Great Lakes (A+) or Tulsa (AA)
  • Jakob Wright – 22 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)

Other highly regarded SP who could land in some top 30 lists for LAD.

  • Eriq Swan – 23 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A) or Great Lakes (A+)
  • Jesus Tillero – 19 years old at LAD Arizona Complex League (Rookie)
  • Carlos Duran – 23 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go. Or OKC (AAA) if reliever.
  • Chris Campos – 24 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go.
  • Jerming Rosario – 23 years old at Tulsa (AA) as a starter – nowhere to go.
  • Wyatt Crowell – 23 years old at Great Lakes (A+).
  • Christian Zazueta – 20 years old at Rancho Cucamonga (Low A)

There are at least 7 pitchers who can start at AA Tulsa, with no place to go as a starter.  Some will become relievers along the way.  Some will crash and burn.  But the Dodgers pitching history seemingly dictates that many of their prospects will rise to MLB.  There is also the possibility that someone in the DSL or ACL will develop better than anticipated and rise to MLB.  One example is 2023 3rd round draft pick Brady Smith (20 years old).  Smith has not yet pitched professionally.  He had TJ surgery in June 2023.

MLB Pipeline draft scouting report on Brady Smith:

Despite getting a late start on the diamond because he played basketball over the winter, Smith has come out firing at 90-93 mph and reaching 95 with arm-side run on his fastball. He should gain more velocity once he adds some strength to his skinny 6-foot-2 frame. He notches high spin rates on two distinct breaking pitches — an upper-70s curveball that grades as plus, and a low-80s slider with more lateral break.

 Smith also has feel for a low-80s changeup with fade and depth that he hasn’t needed much against prep competition. While he lacks size, he compensates with athleticism and arm speed. He has a clean delivery and no trouble filling the strike zone.

 As a senior, Smith tossed 35.1 IP, with an ERA of 0.40 and a K/BB of 77/14.

Smith is going to get a lot of looks this year.  Because of the TJ surgery, LAD will be careful with him, but once he is cleared, he could get a fast track.

At what point do the Dodgers start trimming?

My biggest concern right now…will LAD have enough room for Clayton Kershaw?  There is a growing number of pundits who do not think he will be a Dodger in 2025.  I am working on a book report on Andy McCullough’s biography on Clayton: The Last Of His Kind – Clayton Kershaw – The Burden Of Greatness.  Kersh is loyal to a fault, but suffice to say right now, his relationship with both Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts could be better.  It is not bad, but it could be better.

If Kershaw does not re-sign with LAD, I will not be a happy camper.

 

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Dionysus

Great stuff. I too have my eye on that group of five: Knack, Miller, Wrobleski, Casparius & Frasso. Where will they go?

Dan in Pasadena

No idea where they’ll go – if indeed those’re the names – but it seems VERY “Friedman-esque” to have stockpiled all this pitching talent so he, Gomes, Prior and Dave can assess which to keep and which to trade in order to stockpile high level prospects to reload the “pipeline” and maintain the Dodgers dominance for years to come.

Dan in Pasadena

What makes you say Kershaw’s relationships with Dave and Andrew could be better? C’mon, can’t throw a comment out like that and not expect us to ask!

Cassidy

What’s your source about Kersh?

Bluto

There’s also a tidbit in the book (which I agree is excellent) about Kershaw not driving with that PR stunt a couple years back.

All that said, Ker shot did send a video to try to recruit Sasaki. And Kershaw has said that he wants to come back.

Last edited 30 days ago by Bluto
Bluto

Driving = jibing

dodgerram

The Yates signing might be an indication that the injury to Kopech is worse than they let out.

Now put the finishint touch on a great offseason and trade for Robert jun.
Outman, Knack or Wrobleski, Fiduccia plus Bruns for Robert jun.
Get great defense in CF with 35 HR potential with 3 more years of financial control, get great defense at 2b with Edman moving there.

IMHO a no brainer.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Michael Norris

Not going to happen. No way. They do not need the headache of an injury prone player who has played more than 100 games just once in his 5-year career. I get that he has a lot of talent, but I doubt he is a difference maker.

dodgerram

We will see.
So far I have been right on Snell, Teo resigning, Scott.
Did not see the Yates signing. But who did ?

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Michael Norris

Ram, you are nothing but consistent in your praise for the guy. But I just don’t see them giving up that much for damaged goods and a player who just cannot stay on the field. I felt the same way when everyone was saying they should try and pry Buxton, who is a much better defender than Robert, away from the Twins. He has played more than 100 games just twice in a 10-year career. Robert Jr.s projected production has him at a .253 avg. 20 homers, and an OPS below .800, .755 in 435 at bats. Not worth the package you are giving up for him. I am pretty confident AF will see it the same way, and I am also pretty sure the White Sox don’t place as much value on those guys listed as you do. They already have one failed so called top Dodger prospect on their roster, Vargas.

dodgerram

The projected numbers for Robert jun. are not too shabby. Especially for a CF who provides excellent D and would allow the Dodgers to move Edman to 2b.

The cost is a little high but the Dodgers need to move a few players to make room on the 40 and 26 men roster anyway.

As for the WS: Yes, Vargas did not pan out and he could be a reason why the WS turn down anohter trade with the Dodgers.
But the package is not too bad talent wise. Outman can step into CF right away, Fiduccia is at least a cometent backup C, Knack has proven he can get MLB hitters out and Bruns has some upside.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!1

Michael Norris

I think those are not good enough numbers for that kind of package. Just my opinion.

Dave

Why would they get Kim then play Edman at 2b?

dodgerram

I do not think Kim will hit enough to play 2b on a regular basis. At least not from the get go.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Duke Not Snider

I’d take that bet.
Even if Kim struggles, I don’t think the Dodgers won’t be quick to give him the hook. The offense isn’t dependent on the guy batting ninth.
If he flops, the Dodgers will send him to OKC.

Duke Not Snider

The Conforto move surprised me, but it really did seem brilliant.
AF & Associates targeted him early and signed him to a one-year deal, preferring him t other OF options. A surgical strike.
To an extent, Conforto was insurance in case Teo really departed. But he’s a great fit with or without Teo.
Similarly, the Dodgers jumped the market by targeting and signing Snell early. I would have prefered Burnes, but perhaps Snell makes more sense as the lone lefty in a six-man rotation.
Edman is similar. The Dodgers evidently had coveted him for years, and engineered the 3-team deal to acquire him. He shined and now it’s a long-term commitment.
And Kim too. Roberts made the team’s interest in him clear last season. And now he’s a Dodger.

Duke Not Snider

I don’t place much stock in projected numbers.
I’d love to see research showing projections compared to actual performance.

Duke Not Snider

Luis Robert Jr. has won a gold glove, so I doubt that Buxton is actually a much better defender.
The rub with Robert is the injury risk. But his upside is an all-star, 40- HR performance–and he’s 5 or 6 years younger than Teo, and just one year older that Soto. We want the Dodgers to get younger, right? He could command CF for years to come.
The Dodgers brass have probably done their due diligence, and perhaps they think the injury risk is too great, or they are waiting for the White Sox to reduce the price. At any rate, the Dodgers are also well-positioned to take a gamble.
Here’s a 5-for-1 overpay that could get their attention:
–May or Miller, top draft talents who showed ace potential as a rookies. (The arrival of Roki, especially, makes them expendable.)
–DePaula, the stud hitting prospect who in time could help make up for the loss of Roberts’s bat. (DePaula profiles as a DH. The Dodgers already have the best.)
–choice of Outman or Pages to replace Robert immediately in the field and lineup. (Perhaps both, because Robert wouldn’t require a platoon partner.)
–choice of Ryan Ward or Gauthier or another 4A types who still might help the Sox
–second-tier pitching prospect, because ‘you can’t have too much pitching.’
Still, getting Robert would seem like gilding the lily. If he came over and flopped, the Dodgers would still be OK.
For sentimental reasons, I’d prefer to see Outman, who is often maligned, have a strong spring and win at least a platoon role in CF.
Fans seem to forget that his rookie season in ’23 was much better than Pages’s rookie season in ’24. If Outman wins the fat side of a platoon, Edman would be freed to play more of a UT role.
Right now, CF and 2B are probably the only two positions that are open to competition. The frontrunners are Edman in CF and Kim at 2B. Outman and Pages could shake things up.

dodgerram

Wow, that would be a HUGE overpay. The offer I proposed was already a bit much but yours ??
Personally I would not do that. No way.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!

Badger

Depth. We’ve been alluding to this, well, some of us have anyway, for months. Why is it so important? Looking at stats explains exactly why. There is nobody on this staff that guarantees 27 starts and 150 innings. NOBODY.

There was a stat mentioned yesterday, I think it was yesterday, that said over 40% of all outs in whatever span was generated via the bullpen. Jeff can expound on that if he chooses, nobody I know is better with numbers than him. Starters make the big bucks but those guys are long gone when games are won and lost. Innings pitched for the entire postseason last year – Flaherty 22, Yamamoto 18.2, Buehler 15. Glasnow wasn’t even there. 142 total innings pitched and there are your leaders. Flaherty’s ERA for those 22 innings was 7.36. Yamamoto’s was 3.86. I don’t find these stats at all impressive.

So what to do? Stack pitching high and deep. Smart move.

Cassidy

Smart but fair?

Michael Norris

Life isn’t fair, why should baseball be any different? Some of those kids will get traded and get their shot in a different organization. It is totally impossible to keep them all. One thing you know for sure is that Snell, Sasaki, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani will be in the rotation for at least the next 5 years barring injury. Not much room for prospects, unless your name is Skenes, in that group.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Norris
Bobby

As funny as it sounds, I won’t be shocked if we’re sellers come trade deadline.

Not because we’ll be out of the race, but because we have so many relievers that we could hypothetically, a Kirby Yates for some top 100 prospects at the deadline and stockpile our farm with potential impact kids. It’d save cash, lessen the tax burden, stockpile the farm, and we’d likely still have a few impact arms ready to replace him.

I won’t be shocked at all if we’re buying now to sell high in 8 months

Sam Oyed

Interesting thought. At some point something has to give. Only question is when.

Singing the Blue

I had the same thought, Bobby, except I’m not sure Andrew will wait for July to do it.

Once he has all his ducks in a row with Scott and Yates official, we may just see some of those young pitchers moved for position player prospects. I see that as more likely than a Yates trade.

Johnny Gentle

Shoot, we’re sellers right now.

Bluto

Have been sellers (to varying degrees) the past two deadlines, agree will happen again.

Michael Norris

Neither the Yates nor Scott deals have been officially announced yet. There will have to be a roster move whenever the second of the two is announced. Roster stands at 39 right now. I would think Grove has the most chance of being traded or DFA’d

Singing the Blue

Mlbtr.com is reporting that Andrew is shopping Brasier.

Singing the Blue

Agreed that Brasier is the most logical and also would save them a few mil more than trading Banda.

I’m really fascinated to see what happens with May. I guess a lot of that might depend on how he looks this spring.

Watch them put May, Frasso, Knack, Wrobo, Miller and Sheehan in a deal for Mason. That would clear some nice space on the 40-man. 😂

Duke Not Snider

Mason Miller? Maybe down the road a piece…

Johnny Gentle

We are upgrading wherever possible.

Bumsrap

Jeff, I share your thoughts on the fairness to young players when so many free agents push them down the pecking order.

It would help if a team with a ace and 4 #5s and nothing in their system would trade that ace for volume.

philjones

It’s funny, I was listing the Dodger pitchers the other day and came up with 25 pitchers excluding Kopech, Graterol and the 4 pitchers out until 2026. And my list had none of the prospects that Jeff listed in the top 30.

That is truly a wealth of pitching talent.
And I agree that many on the list are getting screwed out of an MLB career elsewhere, as their clock ticks.

The stockpiling of pitching talent is nothing new. When I played the Dodger minor league teams in the early 70’s, before free agency, you would see a differ bunch of pitchers from series to series. Tons of player movement, during the season. And they seemed to prefer tall, athletic, surfer dudes who could light it up. To the best of my recollection.

I’m not sure the statement “you can never have enough pitching” is actually true. Or fair.

I wonder if AF has bought into that concept and has loaded up with this abundance of arms, due to paranoia?

I belief the Dodgers used 39 pitchers and 17 starting pitchers in 2023. We ended up going 3 and out, post-season with Kershaw, Miller and Lynn. The last 3 Musketeers. 

Last year it was a completely different outcome. The bullpen was magnificent, but the starting stand was depleted. again. We used a record 40 pitchers and 17 starters in 2024.

So maybe you never can have enough pitching?

Johnny Gentle

And we’re coming off a deep postseason run.

Michael Norris

Angels signed Tim Anderson to a minor league deal.

Michael Norris

Just checked, Sasaki is on OKC’s roster.

John

if the Dodgers are looking at position players, I’d like them to find a young good third baseman. Were good with Muncy but he will be done in a year maybe two. The Front Office might be comfortable Hose but looking down the road third baseman will need to be addressed

Michael Norris

Not many of those around who would be available in trade.

Duke Not Snider

True… but how about the O’s 25-year-old Jordan Westburg? Hit to a .793 OPS last season with 18 HRs in 416 ABs.
The O’s are loaded in the infield but need pitching

Michael Norris

Depends on whether or not the O’s feel they can fill his spot internally or not.

Michael Norris

Dave Stewart has joined the A’s as a special assistant.

Duke Not Snider

I’m glad you focused on this topic.
The additions of Snell, Sasaki, Scott and Yates–all as free agents–block several young guys ready to make their mark. So does the return of Shohei to the mound. He was also a free agent, of course.
Trades are much more interesting than just writing big checks. And the Dodgers wealth of talent is one reason why I think the Dodgers shouldn’t try to “win” trades of seemingly equal value.
If there’s a trade target they truly covet, AF and BG could do an overpay to enhance the possibility of a “win-win.” (If Peter Huebeck had been added to the Busch trade, would we miss him?)
Apart from Luis Robert Jr., who might the Dodgers truly covet?
For that matter, maybe the brass isn’t interested in Robert at all. Perhaps the injury history is too much of a red flag.
But there must be some rising prospects out there who are blocked on other team…

Bluto

Can you expand on the “shouldn’t try to win trades” couple of sentences?

So many questions about it:

  1. • Does this imply the Dodgers have not finalized trades because they “tried to win” them?
  2. • If they aren’t trying to win trades, what are they doing in trades?
  3. • Is getting fair value for what you are giving up “winning” a trade?
  4. • Are you advocating just throwing in players like Heubeck for the fun of it?
  5. • Aren’t all trades “win-win” from both parties perspective?
Duke Not Snider

Good questions
My point is that object of a trade should always be to create a “win-win” transactions. I sometimes encounter comments that make hasty judgments on that point, as if one side pulled a fast one or screwed over the other.
Remember when it was rumored that Devin Williams would come to the Dodgers in a deal involving Lux? Williams was surprised when he heard he was going to the Yankees. We don’t if the Lux rumors were legit, but I found myself wondering whether Dodgers missed out by not adding an SP prospect. (The Yankees dealt Nestor Cortes.)
One team will often be the suitor who tries to persuade the other team to make a deal. It would be interesting to know who is on the Dodgers wish list, and how they might approach another team.
I would advocate throwing in a guy like Huebeck–sort of a lottery ticket–to enhance the possibility of a win-win. I assume the Dodgers will target talent that they truly covet, and a so-called “overpay” with a sweetener like Huebeck or ??? could help seal the deal. There’s nothing wrong, and a lot right, about letting the other guy feel a little bit better about the deal.
Let’s say the Dodgers are negotiating with the O’s. Adding Huebeck might help because he was a high school star in Maryland. That value may only be cosmetic, a bit of PR–but it’s still value.
One youtuber is always concocting fantasy deals with the “trade values” data to figure out what a “fair price” for, say, Luis Robert Jr. might be. Frankly, I think we do a better job calculating this stuff ourselves.
I’m confident that the AF & Associates don’t consider that stuff yet still try to calculate what is fair in their reasoning. And I think it makes a lot of sense for the wealthy Dodgers to add those 4A types and “lottery tickets” as sweeteners to reduce logjams in the minors. I think the players would appreciate new opportunities too, and that would reflect well on the Dodgers’ reputation.

Bluto

I’m still not sure I track, if another team (in a hypothetical) needs a Heubeck to “feel good” about a deal shouldn’t he/she ask for Heubeck?

feels like a weird burden for the Dodgers to assume.

look the trade value simulator is never going to be perfect (it was off for the Lux deal, and IMHO overvalues low cost, but it’s pretty, pretty good! It points in a good direction and is based on good math.

Sam Oyed

A possible 3rd baseman for the Dodgers next year is Munetaka Murakami. Also known as Japan’s Aaron Judge, might get posted next winter.

Singing the Blue

By the time Murakami is posted, Manfred will have figured out a way to prevent us from getting him………….in the best interests of the game (or in other words, because the other owners made him).

Sam Oyed

Manfred can’t change anything until the new CBA which as I understand it would be after the 2026 season. Murakami could be posted after the 2025 season.

Dionysus

We do have an upcoming hole at 3b between Muncy’s 2026 cheap team option and Vargas/Morales being ready. Freeland a possibility but prefer him MIF.

OhioDodger

Sasaki is ranked the No. 1 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. He’s just the second Dodger since 1990 to claim the top spot at BA, along with Corey Seager in 2016.

Six Dodgers were ranked among the top 100 prospects in baseball entering the 2025 season by Baseball America.

Rushing, Hope, De Paula, Ferris, and Freeland were also ranked in the top 101 prospects at Baseball Prospectus last week.

The MLB Pipeline top-100 list will be unveiled on Friday.

Watford Dodger

Just a thought after another whirlwind week in Dodgerland.

In hindsight, given that AF appears to be carrying out his oft mentioned desire “to be pigs”, is it a bit of a surprise that he didn’t go the extra (albeit ridiculous) mile and lock up the generational talent that is Juan Soto? Not even in his prime, he would certainly have helped, along with the signings of Sasaki and Kim, the Dodgers to get younger.

Money and Luxury Taxes really don’t seem to be an issue so was wondering why he didn’t pull the trigger. On the other side of the coin, it’s seems incredible to me that Soto wouldn’t forgoe the extra dollars in exchange for potentially playing for a ring for the duration of his contract. He would never spend $600m (what AF allegedly offered) let alone the $700+M that he got from
the Mets, so why not get onboard if the offer was there?

Ive said all along that I feel a big trade or number of trades are coming – quite simply because we have too many players blocked, and no real pathway for them, particularly now on the SP
front.

A package or packages of this quality would bring back some very good MLB quality players.
I like the 3B at Colorado – McMahon, as well as Duran of Boston who Jeff mentioned.

Last edited 30 days ago by Watford Dodger
Cassidy

If MLB is so concerned about all the pitching injuries, why not expand the rosters to 28 players including 15 pitchers?

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