AF gets a lot of flak about signing pitchers with injury history. Perhaps we lay blame on individuals a little too quickly.
Yes, the Dodgers did trade for and extend Tyler Glasnow, but every indication was that his elbow was fine. Glasnow did have two TJ surgeries, but the second one was with a band. The Doctors indicated that his elbow was stronger than ever.
His contract was for 5 years with a guarantee of $136,562,500. Certainly, a lot of $$$, but thus far the positives outweigh the negatives. His fWAR for 2024 was 3.8 for a value of $30.5MM. But it is the performance that needs to be there rather than the value. I get that.
After 9 starts, Glasnow was 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA (2.54 FIP), and .860 WHIP. 57.0 IP (6.1 innings per start). .169 batting average against. .530 OPS against. 73 K vs 15 BB (4.9 K/BB). He was on his way to a CY level season.
Pure conjecture on my part, but IMO the damage started in his 9th start. He was pitching brilliantly against the Padres but left after 7.0 IP trailing 1-0. That was the start of 5 games whereby Glasnow started and pitched 30.0 innings, and the Dodgers scored ZERO RUNS when he was in. The Dodgers were shutout 5 times in 2024, twice in those 5 games (May 22 and June 4). Human nature would seem to indicate that Glasnow was trying to offset the anemic offense with more velo and more spin. I have nothing to base it on, but that is what I believe.
The Dodgers are still going with an elbow strain. The Dodgers have cried wolf so many times that it is hard not to discount what they say. But until I know, I am going with the diagnosis as a sprain rather than another UCL tear. Now if the LAD Doctors missed something in their review of the medicals and images, then perhaps a study of the LAD Doctors is warranted. He probably should not have tried to come back from the tendonitis.
Another LAD pitcher signed with a 2nd TJ surgery is Shohei Ohtani. We all know what he can accomplish offensively, but there are those who believe he is a better pitcher than a hitter. One of them is John Smoltz. Maybe you do not like him as a game announcer, but his knowledge of pitching and pitchers is up there with the best.
The Dodgers got Shohei to also be a pitcher. Should the Dodgers have stayed away from Shohei?
17 other LAD pitchers either started on the IL or were added to the IL in 2024.
Dustin May (SP) – Drafted with no injury history (elbow – twice TJ)
Tony Gonsolin (SP) – Drafted with no injury history (elbow – TJ)
Nick Frasso (SP) – Traded for (Mitch White) with no injury history (shoulder)
Clayton Kershaw (SP) – HOF pitcher drafted pre-AF (shoulder)
Emmet Sheehan (SP) – Drafted with no injury history (elbow – TJ)
Bobby Miller (SP) – Drafted with no injury history (shoulder)
Walker Buehler (SP) – Drafted 2015 knowing he needed TJ surgery. LAD was rewarded with a 2020 WS with a lot of credit to Buehler, who became known as Big Game Buehler. Had 2nd TJ surgery. His story continues in the 2024 NLCS.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP) – Signed as free agent with no injury history (shoulder)
River Ryan (SP) – Traded for (Matt Beaty) with no injury history (elbow – TJ)
Gavin Stone (SP) – Drafted with no injury history (elbow – TJ)
Kyle Hurt (Swing) – Traded for (Dylan Floro) with no injury history. Shoulder and elbow – TJ surgery).
Ryan Brasier (RP) – Signed as free agent mid-season (calf strain)
Brusdar Graterol (RP) – Traded for (Minnesota) – Had arm concerns at time of trade. With the injuries, IMO the Dodgers still like this trade.
Blake Treinen (RP) – Re-signed with arm concerns (shoulder), but his 2024 salary is $1MM. The Dodgers are being rewarded with an outstanding high leverage reliever.
Anthony Banda (RP) – Traded for (cash). Has been a significant addition to the 2024 bullpen.
Connor Brogdon (RP) – Traded for (Benny Robles) with no history of arm injury. Went on IL with plantar fasciitis.
Joe Kelly (RP) – Has had multiple arm injuries. If there is a FA signing that AF regrets, IMO this would be it. I think they expected Kelly to be hurt during the season but wanted him for October. Hurt during the season AND October.
That is 19 pitchers; 12 starters, 1 swing, and 6 relievers. Of the starting pitchers, 7 were drafted by LAD, 3 were traded for, and 2 were FA (both this year: Ohtani and Yamamoto).
Other than Glasnow and Ohtani, none had arm issues. So how did AF miss on them? I also do not want to hear that they missed out on Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease. Unless you know what, the Dodgers offered (if they did), nobody has a clue whether either of those were viable trade options. The Dodgers were never going to outbid AJ Preller for Cease, and while the Dodgers might have been able to offer a comparable pitcher as DL Hall (think a LH version of Bobby Miller), they did not have a Joey Ortiz to trade. Also, there is no indication that Milwaukee wanted to trade with the Dodgers. The Dodgers did trade Bryan Hudson to Milwaukee, but I cannot think of any trade involving Milwaukee to indicate that they could have acquired Burnes.
Since the 2020 WS the Dodgers have traded for or signed the following SP:
Max Scherzer – Traded for (Nationals) with no previous arm injury. Back and oblique concerns, sure. His run up to October, was one of the best in MLB history after a traded deadline acquisition. However, the fact that he failed to pitch when needed most in 2021 NLCS will always go down as a bone of contention for me. And then backhand slap at LAD for not pitching him enough as the reason. How do you politely say bovine manure?
Tyler Anderson – Signed as FA with LAD in 2022 with no apparent arm issues. He did have a history of knee injuries. TA was an All Star in 2022. I do not see a problem with that FA signing.
Andrew Heaney – Signed as a FA with LAD in 2022 with arm injury history, but he was more of a reclamation project and pitched better than expected with LAD.
Noah Syndergaard – Signed as FA with LAD in 2023 with arm injury (TJ surgery) history. Did not pitch well for Dodgers, but probably more due to his head than arm. He could not understand why he could not get back to 100 MPH. Did not turn out well, but LAD did not lose because of Thor.
James Paxton – Signed as FA in 2024 to be #5. He started 18 games (89.1 IP). Traded to Boston for 17-year-old DSL SS, Moises Bolivar. Paxton was not a problem signing for LAD. He ended up on the Boston IL.
Next year has the making of something special. SP who should be available at the beginning of the season:
- Shohei Ohtani
- Tyler Glasnow
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Clayton Kershaw (He’s coming back)
- Landon Knack
- Bobby Miller
- Tony Gonsolin
- Dustin May
- Justin Wrobleski
Nick Frasso will be ready at the start of ST and could be available for LAD during the season. Emmet Sheehan should be available at the All-Star break. Jackson Ferris is a phone call away.
None of Kyle Hurt, Gavin Stone, or River Ryan will be available at all in 2025. But they will be a nice problem to have in 2026.
Of that group, only Kershaw and May are under control for 2025 only. Gonsolin is under control for 2025 and 2026. Glasnow is under control for 3-4 years. 4th year is option that will be exercised at the very least by Glasnow. Stone, Miller, and Sheehan are controlled through 2029 (5 years). Ohtani and Yamamoto are well into the future while the others are still rookies and their control status is still pending (post 2030).
And yet I can see the Dodgers acquiring another two starting pitchers before 2025 and using some of the above in trades. I can get into potential names in the offseason, but I feel comfortable saying it will not be Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell.
AF signing or trading for SP has not been the problem for the Dodgers. Maybe the type of pitcher they acquire is an issue. Maybe they should back off the high velo high spin pitchers. But the Dodgers are not alone in that pursuit. What if they do not acquire a certain pitcher and another team does that beats LAD in the playoffs, but gets hurt the next year, is AF to blame for that as well?
Well, according to some experts, perhaps we can blame the little Asian dude who stands in the dugout and doesn’t appear to offer any value.
Let’s blame him and fire him (despite not knowing his name, his background, his credentials, or his role in the organization)
Yeah! What does that guy do?
Why is he allowed on the bench?
Yep, one of the more asinine and uninformed posts. Guy’s name is Yosuke Nakajima. His title is Assistant Major League Athletic trainer. Dodgers have 10 guys who do physical and mental training.
Interesting read. I will need to think about it for a while but my initial reaction is that which I have already said, many times in fact. Back of the velocity a couple of ticks (96 instead of 98) and learn how to pitch. High and tight low and away, change speeds on everything and learn to spot every pitch in your arsenal.
I mean this really is the meta debate right?
missing bats makes sense, but what is the cost?
go back to Beuhler’s start against San Diego. Soft contact can kill you. No contact cannot. (but it can injure you it seems.)
The Dodgers burning through pitchers— in both the majors and minors— is the perfect example of why today’s pitching philosophies need to change. Sooner or later you run out of pitchers and/or burn out careers. Maybe it’s time to bring back the knuckleball!
My first thought too!bring in a couple knuckleballers!Where is Candiotti when you need him?😀
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Add me to the Knuckleball Chowder and Marching Society. Have been on that bandwagon for a couple of years now.
GM’s are always looking for different looks out of their bullpens. That’s as different a look as you can get.
Where is Charlie Hough when we need him?
Smith and Barnes say no.
All they have to do is let the pitch roll to the backstop then run back and pick it up. Hey, it worked for Bob Uecker.
Hire Uecker.
Dodgers should look how they are handling their pitchers coming up.Workload, regeneration, velo, spin rate.
Same for the medical and athletic department. Every stone must be turned to lower the number of those injury problems.
It has come to a point that has cost the Dodgers a legitimate chance at WS titles the last 3 years. Every year we are short on arms, especially in the rotation.
Have to do something different.
Would not surprise me if they announce after the WS that Glasnow will have surgery on his elbow. From a time line it would make no different if hte surgery is now or in 4 weeks. Would cost him 2025 anyway and should be ready for 2026 in both scenairos.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obviously the Dodgers are self-evaluating all the time.
Would you be surprised if he didn’t need significant surgery?
U are a smart guy. U know my answer.
Don´t U ?!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What is the benefit of holding off announcing surgery until after the WS?
No benefit for the Dodgers. But maybe Glasnow is hoping he can avoid it by going with alternative treatment (like plaetelet rich plasma) or just rest.
There have been players before who tried that route.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!
I don’t know if Glasnow needs TJ surgery now or not, but I can see another one in his future. I think it is coming sooner or later.
If he does indeed need it, he should do it as soon as possible to be ready for spring 2026.
A topic for after the postseason. If the team’s philosophy and development methods don’t change, they’re going to need at least fifteen starting pitchers on the 40 man to get through a season.
Wasn’t Stone’s injury on his shoulder? I didn’t realize he had TJ surgery.
Yes, Stone’s surgery was shoulder. Too much copying and pasting. Fixed it.
Fantastic post Jeff D. (I will make that distinction from now on to separate your posts from the other Jeff)
So, you did the research for us on the myth that the Dodgers sign pitchers with a history of arm issues, Jeff D. It was an easy assumption to make that the Dodgers picked up too many reclamation projects that had a history of injuries that continued with the Dodgers. Based on your information, that’s clearly not the case.
So that leads us to other reasons. Is it bad luck or something else?
Dodgerram makes a great statement w/ “Dodgers should look how they are handling their pitchers coming up. Workload, regeneration, velo, spin rate.
Same for the medical and athletic department. Every stone must be turned to lower the number of those injury problems.” I couldn’t agree more.
And that is doubtlessly underway. But there were stumbling blocks in forming a sort of “clearinghouse” of medical folks to conduct research and start drawing some credible theories other reasons than spin and velocity.
Maybe those 2 are the major culprits but plenty have fallen victim to arm issues, league wide, who don’t possess exceptional spin or velocity.
So here are some ideas to kick around this winter:
Regarding your last sentence, Phil, as much as baseball front offices like to copy each other, there’s always a contrarian out there to start turning things in a different direction.
The only question is who that will be, and how long it will take him (them) to get there.
Our good friend, Mr. Preller, has the only knuckleballer in MLB at this point. Maybe he’s the one who will try new approaches first.
STB wrote:
Regarding your last sentence, Phil, as much as baseball front offices like to copy each other, there’s always a contrarian out there to start turning things in a different direction.
The only question is who that will be, and how long it will take him (them) to get there.
I reply:
And, and this is the biggest qualifier, if the contrarian path will work out for any success.
Fred – regular season goal. Post season extra.
I know that sounds like a lot but 185 innings used to be way doable.
I know it’s a different era and baseball has changed.
But I posted awhile back about that the 1971 Baltimore Orioles, four 20 game winners that featured a rotation of Jim Palmer (20-9, 2.68 ERA in 282 innings in 37 starts),Mike Cuellar (20-9, 3.08 ERA in 292 innings in 38 starts), Pat Dobson (20-8, 2.90 ERA in 282 innings in 37 starts) and Dave McNally (21-5, 2.89, ERA in 224 innings in 30 starts). They all started on 3 days rest.
So how did they do that? None threw 95+ but Palmer wasn’t a soft-tosser.
They all learned how to pitch at less then 100% effort every pitch as they were expected to go deeper into games. The expectations are much different now and so is the injury rates. More throwing isn’t a bad thing if it’s done right and that’s what I’m suggesting baseball looks into.
I’m guessing pitchers are less likely to earn full mlb pensions.
MLB’s Pipeline podcast, both reviews and interviews Zyhir Hope!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mlb-pipeline/id906717198?i=1000673211139
FanGraphs reports he’s up to 215 pounds.
Dodgers all-time playoff record by my calculation is 191-206. .481 winning percentage.
Dodgers: .464 (26-30)The Dodgers have played 56 postseason series, second most behind the Yankees. From 1916 through 1953, the Dodgers lost seven consecutive World Series they played in, tied for the longest streak all time with the 1910-45 Cubs. In more recent history, they’ve reached the postseason in 11 consecutive seasons, including 2023. And in 2020, they won their first World Series since 1988.
unless I have it wrong Frasso has had arm injuries for awhile including Tommy John. Many of his pickups have had injuries mb more relievers. It is not Brasiers first calf injury unless doc was lying about it. I may have it wrong. If so my apologies.
Since 2020 the Dodgers have picked up the following pitchers who were injured:
Corey knebel- he was effective on and off
Duffy- try to rehab him but never could stay on the roster
tommy kahnle- was not effective
feyereisen- never made it effectively for LA
j. Nelson- wasted contract
The above were high risk and did not work out. Previously injured. Not my money but just pointing out he has picked up many reclamation projects with previous injuries. Kahnle still pitching, feyereisan looking elsewhere. I believe the others are done.
You forgot to add Alex Reyes. If we are going to pare it down to rarely used (if used at all) reliever projects, I can probably come up with more. How does your list compare to the other 29 teams’ rarely used relievers over the last few years? I only included SP added after 2020.
Frasso had TJ. I don’t know if u consider him a starter or reliever. U had 6 relievers on your list.
i am not arguing with u about any of this I was just setting the record straight on Frasso. Concerning the relievers AF has always liked to pick up players who are injured or have some type of risk. Once in awhile u get a good one. Phillips, Vesia, Banda come to mind and there are others. They weren’t injured but still risk.
Kahnle is dealing for the Yanks out of their bullpen .
Shutdown setup guy.
If we make it to the WS good chance we will face him and the Yanks since they have gone up 2-0 on the Guardians now.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LA Dodgers Chronicles was temporarily shut down due to someone trying to bring the site down. Fortunately my maintenance people were able to handle the issue before any damage. They are going to do some forensic analysis to try and detrmine who it was. I do not know if they will be successful, but they have URLs that they are researching.
Was it Ned Colletti?
Ned Colletti? Nah. But there were others that I had my maintenance team to look at.
Do they have any “morons” as suspects?
hey don’t blame Ned. lolz.
I was wondering what happened. It went down right after I did a routine scan and I thought the scan may have detected something that was a threat. It went down with a “403Forbidden” message.
I tried to get past the message and figured I had when it came back.
This is way over my expertise and I’m just glad to be back to the site.
Met one of our posters today for lunch in the Springs. John Doll. Great baseball fan, his dad once played in the Dodger system back in their Brooklyn days. Great conversation with the guy.