I like to pick dark horse breakout candidates each year. Sometimes I pick well, and others??? Yeah, not so good. My first darkhorse was Caleb Ferguson. He turned out to be pretty good. Others? Who remembers Melvin Jimenez? How about Gerardo Carrillo? I thought I was getting back on track with Brett de Geus. He lasted for a minute, but does have a MLB Baseball Reference page. I picked Nick Nastrini. Perhaps my biggest flop was Jake Vogel. I love Brett Butler type CF, and Jake fit that image perfectly. Unfortunately, he could not play like Brett Butler.
Last year I selected Justin Wrobleski. He has come out of nowhere to be #13 on Baseball America Dodgers Top Prospects, and #11 for Baseball Prospectus. He made #20 in final 2023 MLB Pipeline top prospects. I think he moves up when those are published.
This year I could have gone with Payton Martin or Joendry Vargas, or even Jesus Tillero. Josue De Paula has not been a dark horse candidate for a while. I have written quite a bit about Martin, De Paula, and Vargas already, and all four (including Tillero) are already on LAD top prospect lists, so I exclude them. Martin is my favorite MiLB Dodger right now, but he is not a dark horse candidate this year (for me). No, this year, I am selecting former Mira Costa High School/UCLA 6’7” RHP, Jared Karros.
Karros did not start pitching much until his Junior Year at Mira Costa High School. A lot of MLB players look back at their HS coach and comment as to how special it was. Karros was fortunate to have a great mentor in his high school coach, Keith Ramsey. Ramsey played 11 years professionally after a collegiate career at the University of Florida
“I’ve been very fortunate to have Coach Ramsey as my High School Coach. Just with the baseball and pitching he was great, but, also, outside of baseball he was a great mentor. He was someone I could look up to and ask for advice, and he’s always been someone who has been in my corner, so I was very fortunate to have him.”
It wasn’t hard for Karros to decide about his choice of colleges. He decided on his father’s alma mater, UCLA. Great academic school (yeah Fred Vogel, I said that) and a premier baseball program with one of the very best college coaches in the country, John Savage. Savage also happens to be an outstanding pitching coach.
Jared Karros debuted in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, appearing in four games with three starts. Jared Karros posted a 2-0 record with a 3.86 ERA, a 0.786 WHIP, a .180 batting average against and 10.3 K/9.
The next year, he was UCLA’s opening-day starter and had a 3.33 ERA in seven appearances, racking up 32 strikeouts in 27 innings.
He was having a fantastic start to his 2021 season but something just did not feel right.
Following a start against USC on March 28, 2021, Jared “started to feel some back fatigue,” Eric said. He was sidelined the rest of the season, made an unsuccessful comeback attempt for the start of 2022 and entered the draft with only 11 collegiate appearances.
“I was coming off my best start in 2021, and I just didn’t recover like I should have. I went and saw a doctor and realized I was going to be out for some time, so that was pretty tough not getting to take the field with my teammates. I had worked so hard to get to that point, and to have it taken away was a pretty tough pill to swallow. But I definitely learned a lot through the process and I think I grew a lot as a person just grinding every day to get back to it.”
That was a tough blow considering that his team was so good and that he had such a good situation going at UCLA.
So, when you combine the lost year of 2020 due to Covid, his injury in 2021, his completely lost year in 2022, and that he really only started pitching his junior year in HS, Karros was pretty raw going into the 2022 draft.
Karros grew up in Dodger Stadium, but even though not yet a Dodger, Jared paved his own path.
During his rehab, the pitcher worked with Brandon McDaniel, the Dodgers vice president of player performance, and Keith Pyne, a medical consultant for the team. Yes, I am sure Eric had some input there.
He visited Dodger Stadium on occasion to work out and throw.
And he said he was struck by “how willing to help they are, all the resources they offer and how personable a lot of them are. It made it feel just very welcoming.”
Jared was hopeful that the Dodgers would draft him. The Dodgers were the only MLB team he would forego his UCLA career for.
At the start of the draft’s final day, Karros was unsure if the Dodgers would roll the dice. Entering the final handful of rounds, he still had not been selected. But in the 16th round (495 pick overall) Jared’s name popped up, with the Dodgers listed beside it.
“It was just a ton of emotion, super excited,” Jared said. “Just all the hard work really starting to pay off.”
It was not a foregone conclusion that Jared would sign.
Jared was drafted in the 16th round after a season in which he did not pitch at all due to a back injury. Jared had quite a bit less of a resume as most others would likely have in his position. Karros could have stayed to have a full collegiate season of health, and getting to play another season with his brother at UCLA. Plus, the 16th Round? Well it is not the round filled with elite prospects. So he did have a decision to make.
With the Dodgers being the team that drafted him, it made the decision much easier.
“I contemplated it a little bit just because I didn’t know what things were going to look like going forward. I wanted to pitch at UCLA, but ultimately, I felt like going Pro was going to be the best decision for my career. Then, to be able to go to the Dodgers that is such a great organization, and the way they take care of and develop their players made it a pretty easy decision.”
“It’s definitely pretty awesome, just with them being the local team, always grew up watching them, rooting for them, going to games,” Jared said. “But there’s more than that. With their development and their organization, it’s more than just the local team that I rooted for. It’s an organization that’s going to give me the best opportunity to help further my career.”
He would have had a coveted spot in UCLA’s starting rotation. He could have improved his draft stock for a year from now. Most importantly, he could have played another year with his brother Kyle.
Before he got hurt, UCLA coach John Savage, who is widely revered as one of the best pitching minds in College Baseball said,
“Jared was becoming one of the best pitchers in the Pac-12,” complementing a low-90s mph fastball with a changeup, curveball and slider.”
With one more productive and healthy season, Savage was confident Jared could have climbed into the top six or seven rounds, and maybe even higher.
“I would describe it as an unfulfilled career at UCLA, and he would feel the same way,” Savage said. “But I think you can build a guy there that can be pretty solid. … It’s just a matter of building up and making sure he gets stronger. They might be surprised with how good he is.”
I have known John Savage since 1992 when he was the pitching coach and recruiting coordinator for the University of Nevada, Reno. He does not simply offer up accolades just for anyone.
Plus Karros is a pretty cerebral kid. He was two-time Pac-12 Academic Honor Roll (2021-22), and eight-time UCLA Director’s Honor Roll. College was not an impediment for Karros.
So how well did Karros pitch in 2023 with a clear runway and no obstacles?
He started at Single A Rancho Cucamonga and finished at High A Great Lakes. As the season wore on, he got better. He didn’t allow a run in his last 3 regular season appearances, and allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 29 innings of regular season work. He struck out 30 hitters in that span and walked just 4.
“I was definitely very excited to get started last year. I just trusted my abilities and all of the work I put into it. I knew I’d be in a pretty good spot to succeed as long as I stayed on the field and gave myself a chance.”
Karros is 6’7, and sits 92-94, but his size gives him a perceived velocity that is much higher than other pitchers that are not as tall or lengthy. You have read that I am a big believer in extension. Extension is one of the reasons I love Tyler Glasnow (99th percentile). Pitchers that are longer have better “extension”, which means they deliver the ball closer to home plate, which gives hitters less time to react. Karros may not be blessed with a near 100 MPH fastball, but he does not need to be with his extension.
Here’s what Karros had to say about where his “Pitch Mix” is at right now.
“I throw 4 pitches, and I feel confident moving by fastball and attacking hitters with all 4 pitches. I’d say my main thing is living off of my fastball and being able to move it around the plate. “
Full credit to Casey Porter for these videos on Karros’ 4-pitch mix.
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/4-Seam-Riding.mp4
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Change.mp4
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Slider.mp4
My editorial: Looks good against RH batters with a lot of life. But in the video, it looks like he is going to need to get the slider more in on the hands of the LH batter. He leaves it too much over the plate. It appears to be more of a freeze the batter pitch than a swing and miss pitch. Dodger pitching gurus are expert at developing sliders.
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Curve.mp4
His time with the Low-A Quakes saw him manage at least ten outings of four strikeouts or more (19 total appearances) with four of those outings being 6+ strikeout affairs. While that may not sound impressive, Karros regularly achieved these strikeout games while averaging about 50 to 60 pitches a game. His fastball plays well with a vertical break that routinely denies strong contact, and his ability to sequence the pitch throughout the zone allows Karros the luxury of pitching in favorable positions consistently.
Among all pitchers with at least 70 IP in the Low-A Cal League ( a very very very hitter friendly league) there were few as good as Karros regarding strike zone efficiency. He ranked as the 9th best pitcher in K/9 rankings with a 9.55 K/9 rate while ranking 8th in BB/9 with a 2.80 BB/9 rate. Overall Karros was striking out 25.7% of the batters he faced while walking hitters just 7.5% of the time. His xFIP of 4.08 would be good for 8th in the league, again showing just how capably Karros can manage hitters with the pure qualities of his strike zone control. You can pinpoint the aggregator of his successes through his ability to befuddle bats as noted by his 14.5% Swinging Strike rate, good for 3rd best in the Cal League.
“I did not pitch in my junior season at UCLA but throughout the summer after getting drafted I spent time in Arizona and worked on getting myself back to where I was. Throughout the off season I continued building on that to get me ready for the season. That helped lead me to the success I had.”
“I started off pretty hot [in 2023], but then around early August I had a couple of rough starts in a row. I changed some things in my delivery from there and ended up having a lot of success at the end of my time with Rancho. I just built upon that and continued on as I went to High-A [Great Lake Loons]. The delivery change helped me feel in rhythm and brought a lot of success with it.”
Karros continued his dominant streak immediately after getting the late-season call to High-A as noted by his 6K 5IP debut which resulted in a win on 73 pitches. His next outing with High-A saw him follow up his debut win with a 4-inning save in which he allowed just one hit. You couldn’t have written a more fitting seasons end for Karros as his last start of the year came in a post-season elimination game that saw the rising star sling his way through a six-strikeout, five-scoreless inning affair as the High A Loons secured a series victory.
His High A debut:
#Dodgers pitching prospect Jared Karros was impressive in his High-A debut today:
5.0 IP
4 H
1 ER
1 BB
6 K
73 P / 48 SThe only run he allowed came on a solo homer pic.twitter.com/Sceb8wQz4n
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) August 31, 2023
And his Playoff experience?
“That was awesome. It felt like a college regional vibe a little bit. Win or go home. That was a really fun experience.”
His future? A full season built off the momentum of a successful 2023 should see Karros continue his climb up the organizational ladder in 2024. Karros just turned 23, so he is not an older prospect (nor a younger one). I look for Karros to start the season at Great Lakes, and a mid-season promotion to Tulsa where the fun really begins.
There is a strong path forward for Karros as a big league starting pitcher, and with a refined secondary there is a real chance he will catapult himself into serious prospect standings hopefully by mid-season. He already possesses the critical qualities most sought after in a young pitching prospect, that being an ability to work the entirety of the zone with confidence and dominance.
He’s spent the current offseason preparing for his breakout year by working out at Dodgers stadium with various big league personnel, including Major League standout Walker Buehler, as he learns to further refine his approach to the game both behind the scenes and on the mound.
“This off season has been great, I’ve been fortunate to work out at Dodger Stadium. Being there and having all the resources while I continue developing my pitches has been awesome. The overall theme has been consistency with my off speed. Walker Bueller has been at the stadium and he’s given me a few tips, different ways to think about approach. Different things you can do with your body to make pitches work differently. I’m really looking at where my curveball is right now, metric wise and feel wise. I’m excited for that coming into spring training.”
Karros’ ability to deliver high-leverage performances in the deepest of situations bodes well for his track as a future big leaguer in one of the most overly scrutinized environments in the Major Leagues, and all of sports in general, as a Los Angeles Dodger. Some have called his big league ceiling as reminiscent of former big leaguer Jered Weaver with his ability to command the strikeout by placing his fastball all over the zone, though Karros would admit he’s more of an Adam Wainwright type of guy.
“I just like having the ball in my hand and being in control,” Jared said of why he gravitated toward pitching.
Eric thought that Jared was tired of him telling Jared how to hit.
Whatever the reason he chose pitching as his path to the MLB, Jared Karros is my darkhorse breakout player for 2024.
Thanks Jeff for giving us a heads up on these guys that are trying to make their way up the prospect ladder, hopefully to end up in the big leagues. It’s especially nice hearing about Jared since he is second generation.
since he’s your dark horse you’ll have to give us a little up date at the halfway point, kind of like a midterm grade. We can give him a grade on his progress, and you can get graded on your precognitive skills.
Do we know what, if any, changes the Dodgers have enacted with Karros?
Interesting choice. I think Martin and Jeondry Vargas have already gotten a fair amount of buzz, but as a 16th rounder Karros certainly qualifies as a dark horse, and a smart one at that.
Sounds like he considered it a no-brainer with the Dodgers. If another team had drafted him, he could have simply returned to UCLA. And if he had done that, another team might have drafted him…
It will be interesting to follow his progress….
In other news, mlb.com reports that a Japanese high schooler who has been likened to Prince Fielder for his size and slugging prowess has signed a letter of intent to play for Stanford.
Rintaro Sasaki was expected to be a top draft pick in the NPB but opted for education in the USA. It’s reported that he’ll be eligible for the MLB draft after 3 seasons.
I can’t think of another foreign player making a move like this. Sasaki is another one to watch.
Here in Hong Kong, my 14-year-old son, the crafty southpaw, has a friend and young teammate–age 13, but already a muscular 5-10–who will be attending a boarding school in the US in part to advance his baseball dreams. He is a great kid and something of a prodigy… but geez…
His well-to-do parents are acceding to their only child’s wishes. I imagine they’ll be Zooming every day. We’ll be following his progress too.
Two years ago I picked Outman, last year I picked Duran. This year? Hard to see a dark horse as Jeff has been so thorough scouting all our guys, but I’ll go with 21 year old Moises Brito who through 85 professional innings has WHIP of 0.7 and 11 K/9.
Stanford huh. Why in the world would anyone want to go there?
Great stuff. Outstanding pick and fun guy to follow.
Great stuff Jeff. I didn’t know he went to my old high school. Another Dodger went there also, Joe Moeller. Had to hit off of him during spring training one year. I really hope he makes it. I love seeing the sons of players make good. One reason I was always pulling for guys like Eric Young Jr. and Tony Gwynn Jr. USC not ranked in the top-25 in football’s first poll. Just missed.
My breakout pick: Kendall George. I think he moves right up the ladder this year
My dark horse pick is 20 year old RHP Reynaldo Yean.
Signed out of the DR a couple of years ago and in his time in the organization has a 15.8K/9 inning line. Problem is he also walks a lot of guys.
He spent time at the ACL and Rancho last year and I assume he’ll start at Rancho again this year.
I predict future stardom for Reynaldo; however, I do not expect him to win the Cy Young this year.
Nice pick Jeff. I too am a huge fan of tall. I’m amazed at the number of 6’4′ and taller pitchers I watch fall ball, Spring Training and MiLB. When coaching I encouraged lots of flat ground work, like towel-drills, that promotes extension and length. Every 9 or 10 inches of release closer to home is 3mph in perceived velocity.
A smart high school coach should be in the middle schools looking for tall skinny basketball players with big feet and hands and asking if they’ve ever pitched. (one stumbling block is HS Hoops coaches who demand full-time basketball commitments even in summers from their athletes) The 6’6″ ish white kids have no future in pro basketball but make promising pitchers. The tall kids can take a little longer to get it together, especially the lanky lefties, but I loved to watch these kids grow into their solid mechanics, and find it on the bump.
Karros has certainly had some advantages unavailable to regular Jimmy’s and Joe’s and hopefully he will take advantage of a fresh arm a the Dodger’s great development program.
I know there is a paywall for the Athletic articles, but there is an outstanding article on Don Newcombe. I often wonder what he could have accomplished in 1952 and 1953 if hwas not inducted into the army in his prime years.
Bear, this has your name all over it. Can you do a Don Newcombe post? One of the all-time great Dodgers, and a better person.
https://theathletic.com/5233855/2024/02/14/don-newcombe-dodgers-oral-history-black-aces/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=343446
Interesting news out of Spring Training that the fifth rotation spot (fifth IAOI Paxton starts the season in the rotation) is not Sheehan’s to lose. It’s purported to be an open comp between Yarborough, Stone and Sheehan.
When we used to discuss whether the Dodgers would go after Ohtani, I argued that it made so much sense because it would marry the “brands” of Shohei and the Dodgers. It was a win-win that other franchises couldn’t possibly provide Ohtani. (Perhaps this seemed all the more logical to me because my favorite teacher in high school was a Mr. Guggenheim. He was an eccentric dude who taught logic and Latin and reminded us of Mr. Spock.)
And now the Dodgers (including Ohtani) will be literally wearing the Guggenheim sbrand (with a big G) on their sleeves.
I’m not thrilled about this, but I guess the Big G group just invested more that $1 billion in the team, so at least they’re not cheapskates.
I’m not expert, but I understand that the Guggenheim group is investing in other teams in other sports. Pushing the G brand to Asia (and beyond) seems to be strategic.
Back in pee-wee days, I was on the Dodgers once and the Giants once. I forget which was sponsored by a local sheet metal company, and which was sponsored by the 7Up distributor. But the 7Up logo looked better.
Fangraphs has released their latest Top 100 Prospect list:
River Ryan – 19
Rushing – 60
Cartaya – 68
Liranzo – 72
Hurt – 86
Joendry Vargas – 92
Back to 6/100 again. Ryan is really high compared to some of the other lists.
And no DePaula on this list, but I’m guessing he’ll be on the next one they release.
Busch is at #84.
https://www.mlb.com/news/yoshinobu-yamamoto-watches-shohei-ohtani-take-batting-practice?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
10 homers from 29 pitches 2nd time around.
Why are most publications and most here high on Josue De Paula?
Serious question.