I like to pick dark horse breakout candidates each year. Sometimes I pick well, and others??? Yeah, not so good. My first darkhorse was Caleb Ferguson. He turned out to be pretty good. Others? Who remembers Melvin Jimenez? How about Gerardo Carrillo? I thought I was getting back on track with Brett de Geus. He lasted for a minute, but does have a MLB Baseball Reference page. I picked Nick Nastrini. Perhaps my biggest flop was Jake Vogel. I love Brett Butler type CF, and Jake fit that image perfectly. Unfortunately, he could not play like Brett Butler.
Last year I selected Justin Wrobleski. He has come out of nowhere to be #13 on Baseball America Dodgers Top Prospects, and #11 for Baseball Prospectus. He made #20 in final 2023 MLB Pipeline top prospects. I think he moves up when those are published.
This year I could have gone with Payton Martin or Joendry Vargas, or even Jesus Tillero. Josue De Paula has not been a dark horse candidate for a while. I have written quite a bit about Martin, De Paula, and Vargas already, and all four (including Tillero) are already on LAD top prospect lists, so I exclude them. Martin is my favorite MiLB Dodger right now, but he is not a dark horse candidate this year (for me). No, this year, I am selecting former Mira Costa High School/UCLA 6’7” RHP, Jared Karros.
Karros did not start pitching much until his Junior Year at Mira Costa High School. A lot of MLB players look back at their HS coach and comment as to how special it was. Karros was fortunate to have a great mentor in his high school coach, Keith Ramsey. Ramsey played 11 years professionally after a collegiate career at the University of Florida
“I’ve been very fortunate to have Coach Ramsey as my High School Coach. Just with the baseball and pitching he was great, but, also, outside of baseball he was a great mentor. He was someone I could look up to and ask for advice, and he’s always been someone who has been in my corner, so I was very fortunate to have him.”
It wasn’t hard for Karros to decide about his choice of colleges. He decided on his father’s alma mater, UCLA. Great academic school (yeah Fred Vogel, I said that) and a premier baseball program with one of the very best college coaches in the country, John Savage. Savage also happens to be an outstanding pitching coach.
Jared Karros debuted in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, appearing in four games with three starts. Jared Karros posted a 2-0 record with a 3.86 ERA, a 0.786 WHIP, a .180 batting average against and 10.3 K/9.
The next year, he was UCLA’s opening-day starter and had a 3.33 ERA in seven appearances, racking up 32 strikeouts in 27 innings.
He was having a fantastic start to his 2021 season but something just did not feel right.
Following a start against USC on March 28, 2021, Jared “started to feel some back fatigue,” Eric said. He was sidelined the rest of the season, made an unsuccessful comeback attempt for the start of 2022 and entered the draft with only 11 collegiate appearances.
“I was coming off my best start in 2021, and I just didn’t recover like I should have. I went and saw a doctor and realized I was going to be out for some time, so that was pretty tough not getting to take the field with my teammates. I had worked so hard to get to that point, and to have it taken away was a pretty tough pill to swallow. But I definitely learned a lot through the process and I think I grew a lot as a person just grinding every day to get back to it.”
That was a tough blow considering that his team was so good and that he had such a good situation going at UCLA.
So, when you combine the lost year of 2020 due to Covid, his injury in 2021, his completely lost year in 2022, and that he really only started pitching his junior year in HS, Karros was pretty raw going into the 2022 draft.
Karros grew up in Dodger Stadium, but even though not yet a Dodger, Jared paved his own path.
During his rehab, the pitcher worked with Brandon McDaniel, the Dodgers vice president of player performance, and Keith Pyne, a medical consultant for the team. Yes, I am sure Eric had some input there.
He visited Dodger Stadium on occasion to work out and throw.
And he said he was struck by “how willing to help they are, all the resources they offer and how personable a lot of them are. It made it feel just very welcoming.”
Jared was hopeful that the Dodgers would draft him. The Dodgers were the only MLB team he would forego his UCLA career for.
At the start of the draft’s final day, Karros was unsure if the Dodgers would roll the dice. Entering the final handful of rounds, he still had not been selected. But in the 16th round (495 pick overall) Jared’s name popped up, with the Dodgers listed beside it.
“It was just a ton of emotion, super excited,” Jared said. “Just all the hard work really starting to pay off.”
It was not a foregone conclusion that Jared would sign.
Jared was drafted in the 16th round after a season in which he did not pitch at all due to a back injury. Jared had quite a bit less of a resume as most others would likely have in his position. Karros could have stayed to have a full collegiate season of health, and getting to play another season with his brother at UCLA. Plus, the 16th Round? Well it is not the round filled with elite prospects. So he did have a decision to make.
With the Dodgers being the team that drafted him, it made the decision much easier.
“I contemplated it a little bit just because I didn’t know what things were going to look like going forward. I wanted to pitch at UCLA, but ultimately, I felt like going Pro was going to be the best decision for my career. Then, to be able to go to the Dodgers that is such a great organization, and the way they take care of and develop their players made it a pretty easy decision.”
“It’s definitely pretty awesome, just with them being the local team, always grew up watching them, rooting for them, going to games,” Jared said. “But there’s more than that. With their development and their organization, it’s more than just the local team that I rooted for. It’s an organization that’s going to give me the best opportunity to help further my career.”
He would have had a coveted spot in UCLA’s starting rotation. He could have improved his draft stock for a year from now. Most importantly, he could have played another year with his brother Kyle.
Before he got hurt, UCLA coach John Savage, who is widely revered as one of the best pitching minds in College Baseball said,
“Jared was becoming one of the best pitchers in the Pac-12,” complementing a low-90s mph fastball with a changeup, curveball and slider.”
With one more productive and healthy season, Savage was confident Jared could have climbed into the top six or seven rounds, and maybe even higher.
“I would describe it as an unfulfilled career at UCLA, and he would feel the same way,” Savage said. “But I think you can build a guy there that can be pretty solid. … It’s just a matter of building up and making sure he gets stronger. They might be surprised with how good he is.”
I have known John Savage since 1992 when he was the pitching coach and recruiting coordinator for the University of Nevada, Reno. He does not simply offer up accolades just for anyone.
Plus Karros is a pretty cerebral kid. He was two-time Pac-12 Academic Honor Roll (2021-22), and eight-time UCLA Director’s Honor Roll. College was not an impediment for Karros.
So how well did Karros pitch in 2023 with a clear runway and no obstacles?
He started at Single A Rancho Cucamonga and finished at High A Great Lakes. As the season wore on, he got better. He didn’t allow a run in his last 3 regular season appearances, and allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 29 innings of regular season work. He struck out 30 hitters in that span and walked just 4.
“I was definitely very excited to get started last year. I just trusted my abilities and all of the work I put into it. I knew I’d be in a pretty good spot to succeed as long as I stayed on the field and gave myself a chance.”
Karros is 6’7, and sits 92-94, but his size gives him a perceived velocity that is much higher than other pitchers that are not as tall or lengthy. You have read that I am a big believer in extension. Extension is one of the reasons I love Tyler Glasnow (99th percentile). Pitchers that are longer have better “extension”, which means they deliver the ball closer to home plate, which gives hitters less time to react. Karros may not be blessed with a near 100 MPH fastball, but he does not need to be with his extension.
Here’s what Karros had to say about where his “Pitch Mix” is at right now.
“I throw 4 pitches, and I feel confident moving by fastball and attacking hitters with all 4 pitches. I’d say my main thing is living off of my fastball and being able to move it around the plate. “
Full credit to Casey Porter for these videos on Karros’ 4-pitch mix.
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/4-Seam-Riding.mp4
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Change.mp4
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Slider.mp4
My editorial: Looks good against RH batters with a lot of life. But in the video, it looks like he is going to need to get the slider more in on the hands of the LH batter. He leaves it too much over the plate. It appears to be more of a freeze the batter pitch than a swing and miss pitch. Dodger pitching gurus are expert at developing sliders.
https://dodgersdaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Curve.mp4
His time with the Low-A Quakes saw him manage at least ten outings of four strikeouts or more (19 total appearances) with four of those outings being 6+ strikeout affairs. While that may not sound impressive, Karros regularly achieved these strikeout games while averaging about 50 to 60 pitches a game. His fastball plays well with a vertical break that routinely denies strong contact, and his ability to sequence the pitch throughout the zone allows Karros the luxury of pitching in favorable positions consistently.
Among all pitchers with at least 70 IP in the Low-A Cal League ( a very very very hitter friendly league) there were few as good as Karros regarding strike zone efficiency. He ranked as the 9th best pitcher in K/9 rankings with a 9.55 K/9 rate while ranking 8th in BB/9 with a 2.80 BB/9 rate. Overall Karros was striking out 25.7% of the batters he faced while walking hitters just 7.5% of the time. His xFIP of 4.08 would be good for 8th in the league, again showing just how capably Karros can manage hitters with the pure qualities of his strike zone control. You can pinpoint the aggregator of his successes through his ability to befuddle bats as noted by his 14.5% Swinging Strike rate, good for 3rd best in the Cal League.
“I did not pitch in my junior season at UCLA but throughout the summer after getting drafted I spent time in Arizona and worked on getting myself back to where I was. Throughout the off season I continued building on that to get me ready for the season. That helped lead me to the success I had.”
“I started off pretty hot [in 2023], but then around early August I had a couple of rough starts in a row. I changed some things in my delivery from there and ended up having a lot of success at the end of my time with Rancho. I just built upon that and continued on as I went to High-A [Great Lake Loons]. The delivery change helped me feel in rhythm and brought a lot of success with it.”
Karros continued his dominant streak immediately after getting the late-season call to High-A as noted by his 6K 5IP debut which resulted in a win on 73 pitches. His next outing with High-A saw him follow up his debut win with a 4-inning save in which he allowed just one hit. You couldn’t have written a more fitting seasons end for Karros as his last start of the year came in a post-season elimination game that saw the rising star sling his way through a six-strikeout, five-scoreless inning affair as the High A Loons secured a series victory.
His High A debut:
#Dodgers pitching prospect Jared Karros was impressive in his High-A debut today:
5.0 IP
4 H
1 ER
1 BB
6 K
73 P / 48 SThe only run he allowed came on a solo homer pic.twitter.com/Sceb8wQz4n
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) August 31, 2023
And his Playoff experience?
“That was awesome. It felt like a college regional vibe a little bit. Win or go home. That was a really fun experience.”
His future? A full season built off the momentum of a successful 2023 should see Karros continue his climb up the organizational ladder in 2024. Karros just turned 23, so he is not an older prospect (nor a younger one). I look for Karros to start the season at Great Lakes, and a mid-season promotion to Tulsa where the fun really begins.
There is a strong path forward for Karros as a big league starting pitcher, and with a refined secondary there is a real chance he will catapult himself into serious prospect standings hopefully by mid-season. He already possesses the critical qualities most sought after in a young pitching prospect, that being an ability to work the entirety of the zone with confidence and dominance.
He’s spent the current offseason preparing for his breakout year by working out at Dodgers stadium with various big league personnel, including Major League standout Walker Buehler, as he learns to further refine his approach to the game both behind the scenes and on the mound.
“This off season has been great, I’ve been fortunate to work out at Dodger Stadium. Being there and having all the resources while I continue developing my pitches has been awesome. The overall theme has been consistency with my off speed. Walker Bueller has been at the stadium and he’s given me a few tips, different ways to think about approach. Different things you can do with your body to make pitches work differently. I’m really looking at where my curveball is right now, metric wise and feel wise. I’m excited for that coming into spring training.”
Karros’ ability to deliver high-leverage performances in the deepest of situations bodes well for his track as a future big leaguer in one of the most overly scrutinized environments in the Major Leagues, and all of sports in general, as a Los Angeles Dodger. Some have called his big league ceiling as reminiscent of former big leaguer Jered Weaver with his ability to command the strikeout by placing his fastball all over the zone, though Karros would admit he’s more of an Adam Wainwright type of guy.
“I just like having the ball in my hand and being in control,” Jared said of why he gravitated toward pitching.
Eric thought that Jared was tired of him telling Jared how to hit.
Whatever the reason he chose pitching as his path to the MLB, Jared Karros is my darkhorse breakout player for 2024.
Thanks Jeff for giving us a heads up on these guys that are trying to make their way up the prospect ladder, hopefully to end up in the big leagues. It’s especially nice hearing about Jared since he is second generation.
since he’s your dark horse you’ll have to give us a little up date at the halfway point, kind of like a midterm grade. We can give him a grade on his progress, and you can get graded on your precognitive skills.
I will do that. In fact, I will periodically do some followup mid-season reports on all those mentioned as dark horse candidates. Thus far I have Jared Karros, Moises Brito, Chris Newell, Kendall George, and Reynaldo Yean.
Do we know what, if any, changes the Dodgers have enacted with Karros?
Interesting choice. I think Martin and Jeondry Vargas have already gotten a fair amount of buzz, but as a 16th rounder Karros certainly qualifies as a dark horse, and a smart one at that.
Sounds like he considered it a no-brainer with the Dodgers. If another team had drafted him, he could have simply returned to UCLA. And if he had done that, another team might have drafted him…
It will be interesting to follow his progress….
In other news, mlb.com reports that a Japanese high schooler who has been likened to Prince Fielder for his size and slugging prowess has signed a letter of intent to play for Stanford.
Rintaro Sasaki was expected to be a top draft pick in the NPB but opted for education in the USA. It’s reported that he’ll be eligible for the MLB draft after 3 seasons.
I can’t think of another foreign player making a move like this. Sasaki is another one to watch.
Here in Hong Kong, my 14-year-old son, the crafty southpaw, has a friend and young teammate–age 13, but already a muscular 5-10–who will be attending a boarding school in the US in part to advance his baseball dreams. He is a great kid and something of a prodigy… but geez…
His well-to-do parents are acceding to their only child’s wishes. I imagine they’ll be Zooming every day. We’ll be following his progress too.
The first time I watched Jared (I think it was at RC), you could tell that his fastball was in the low 90’s, but my initial reaction was, “This guy knows how to pitch.” I would not be surprised to see him add a couple of MPH of Velo as he matures, but I like him a lot. He profiles as a #4 or #5, but I think his ceiling is a #3… if he continues to grow in his pitching acumen. He has a high baseball IQ for obvious reasons.
Here’s my Dark Horse:
I ordered it in October. It should arrive by July. It’s the last of the naturally aspirated Mustangs with the 500 HP Coyote engine, and it is Oxford White.
Gee Mark, It sounds like a beauty. But I don’t think it will make our president happy. It’s not electric and it wont be getting 30 mpg or 25 mpg or………. 🙂 Have fun with it.
And a Tesla will watch it accelerate with its rear cameras.
Teslas have ridiculous acceleration, and I agree. Why buy gas cars? Or solely gas cars?
Because you can do about a hundred miles before you run out of charge on a below zero day in the Colorado mountains.
Yeah, rural driving is probably not optimal.
Good point.
Not to be blunt, but I doubt that moron is happy anyway.
Stupid comment, Bear.
he’s the President, show some respect.
Treasonous moron is much more like it.
Another patriotic soul!
Don’t ever question my patriotism or my love for this country. It is my patriotic right and duty to question this country’s leadership.
Thumbs Up
I have no respect for him. Might be stupid to you but makes perfect sense to me. There isn’t a politician in this country I respect including the last president. I could care less if he was happy or not. Same with all of them. They are all cheats and liars and our border is still wide open.
Two years ago I picked Outman, last year I picked Duran. This year? Hard to see a dark horse as Jeff has been so thorough scouting all our guys, but I’ll go with 21 year old Moises Brito who through 85 professional innings has WHIP of 0.7 and 11 K/9.
Stanford huh. Why in the world would anyone want to go there?
10 PRETTY DAMN GOOD FREE AGENTS STILL OUT THERE:
https://theathletic.com/5271955/2024/02/13/top-remaining-mlb-free-agents-players-teams/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail&userId=147501
Has there ever been this many at this late in Spring training?:
None of the 10 will be Dodgers and none of the 10 “ready to explode” players listed at The Athletic are Dodgers either.
The Spring Training schedule and the season itself can’t start soon enough for me. Every winter seems longer the older I get.
500 horsepower? Is that necessary at your age? Making up for lack of manpower behind the wheel maybe?
That said….. I want one of those.
I might prefer Merrifield to Margot. But I’d rather have Kike that either of those guys.
I suspect the AF will still do some tinkering.
Probably. But it isn’t necessary. He could also tinker at the deadline if he wants.
Top 5 all Boras clients. Coincidence?
I’ll go with Chris Newell, a University of Virginia product and Bellinger-clone who struggled a bit at Great Lakes after tearing up Rancho Cucamonga as an age-average 22 year old.
I expect him to return to GL but he could reach AA by midyear and be a power-hitting CF prospect.
I hope he has a good year and can reach AA this summer. But he too is a good choice.
Good call on Outman.
While I love the potential of the new lineup, I wish there was another rookie like Outman battling for a starting job. Vargas isn’t a rookie, but one injury to an outfielder could get him into the mix.
Vargas appears to be the closest prospect on the ladder to the 26. Another one, maybe Pages, could surface quickly, but this roster as is looks solid. There could be pitchers that show up during the year. There are more better arms in the system than bats.
EXCELLENT pick. He came over with Nick Frasso in the Mitch White deal. He has been dominant at times in the DSL. A little older (21) for DSL, but his stuff plays. I figure to be writing about him quite a bit this summer. I am not quite sure why he went back to the DSL last year since he was sooooo good in 2022. He is currently assigned to ACL Dodgers, but I am hoping that due to his age, he bypasses another rookie level league and goes straight to Rancho.
Great choice!!
I hope Moises Brito succeeds in part because of how my friend Marla dissed him.
Her son is a Moneyball-style talent analyst for the Blue Jays. He got a degree in this stuff from the University of Oregon.
When Jays traded for Mitch White, Marla assured a few of us Dodgers fans that Frasso was really good and the other guy was “nothing.” So rude. It would be great if Moises proves her wrong.
Great stuff. Outstanding pick and fun guy to follow.
Great stuff Jeff. I didn’t know he went to my old high school. Another Dodger went there also, Joe Moeller. Had to hit off of him during spring training one year. I really hope he makes it. I love seeing the sons of players make good. One reason I was always pulling for guys like Eric Young Jr. and Tony Gwynn Jr. USC not ranked in the top-25 in football’s first poll. Just missed.
My breakout pick: Kendall George. I think he moves right up the ladder this year
I find this a curious pick by Friedman. I see Dee Gordon all over again. Normally, AF does not go for players like this. He has crazy speed, but will he hit? I am agnostic about him. I hope to see him in Ft. Wayne if he moves up to Great Lakes. It was in Ft. Wayne that I soured on Dee Gordon. I am not saying that I am sour on George, but I have to be sold. BA likens him to Juan Pierre.
Curious pick? AF has already missed on similar picks Kendal and Vogel. I don’t know how our Eric feels about Karros but I know another Eric happy about your pick Jeff.
I agree that George is a curious pick because he does not fit the LAD power mold they desire in their draft picks. They did fail on Jeren Kendall and Jake Vogel, but Kendall George is neither of those. Jeren Kendall believed he was a power hitter and would not adjust. Both Jeren Kendall and Vogel are strike out machines, whereas Kendall George’s bat to ball skills are excellent. He reached Cal League as an 18 year old and did not disappoint. At Rancho in 50 PA – .381/.469/.429/.898, 6 BB and 9 K. Overall in 121 PA – .370/.458/.420/.878, 17 BB and 20 K. ZERO HR. He knows who he is and does not try to be a power hitter. To me it is refreshing to see a player like this. .469 OBP plays all day long.
He will be playing as a 19 year old, and I would expect he will start out back at Rancho, but he could very well get a quick promotion to Great Lakes. I am hoping that he will get pushed a little. Thus far, he has not been challenged.
I did not consider him a dark horse candidate because he is already a consensus top 15 prospect in the LAD system. But like Bear, I have a lot of good feel about this kid. I have been waiting for my Brett Butler clone for a long time. Maybe just maybe, the Dodgers have that in Kendall George.
I think it’s pretty well documented that the Dodgers didn’t really WANT to take George there.
They wanted George, but he was supposed to be their 2nd pick. But the draft pretty much went as mapped out, and every one of the LAD 1st round choices were all picked. They figured they could sign George for underslot money and have more available for later picks that may have slipped through.
He was. To me that means there were about 28 guys they passed on so they could get George.
I assume they put together some sort of master list of their own preferences–and George must have been high on that list.
And yeah, the money factors in too. (They drafted local boy Sterling Patrick of West Covina in the 18th round and gave him 4th round $$ to forsake UCSB.)
Very happy they got Geloff in the second round, where they had planned to pick George. That worked out, I think.
BTW, I think first-round status is a disqualifier for “dark horse” or “sleeper” eligibility.
When he was drafted, George was listed at 5-11 and 165 pounds. A little taller and a little lighter than Mookie.
The best ten in the draft were better than all others. There was a pretty clear differentiation between the first 10 and the rest. 9 of the top 10 were drafted in the top 10. It would have been 10 out of 10 had KC drafted Kyle Teel, the collegiate catcher, over Blake Mitchell, the HS catcher. Kyle Teel was ranked #7 and Blake Mitchell was ranked #14. Teel was rated the best overall catcher in the draft, while Mitchell was rated the best HS catcher in the draft. Perhaps KC believed that Mitchell’s ceiling was higher than Teel’s. I am sure that is going to be one choice that will be watched and judged by KC fans over the years.
The first “reach” was Brice Matthews, Nebraska SS who was ranked #57 but drafted by Houston at #28. He was on some mock drafts for LAD. The only other reach before the LAD pick was HS RHP Josh Knoth taken #33 by Milwaukee. He was ranked #98.
I was told that if Seattle had not drafted 6’5” LHP (HS) Thomas White right before LAD, the Dodgers would have taken him. He was who the Dodgers wanted. They quickly pivoted to their #2 draft pick choice, Kendall George. Yes he was high on the Dodgers list, and they did not want to lose him, but he was not on the LAD 1st round short list.
Gasparino was hoping that Brock Wilken would slip (he did not). They were also hoping that George Lombard Jr. would slip (he did not). Besides White, two they thought could be there were HS OF Jonny Farmelo and HS SS Adrian Santana. They were picked #29 and #31 respectively.
One player more than a couple of mock draft boards had the Dodgers taking was University of Miami 3B Yohandy Morales. He lasted to #40 to Washington. He reached AA last year.
I have been critical of previous drafts, but I cannot argue with the 1st two picks by Gasparino last July: Kendall George and Jake Gelof.
Yeah, I think George and Gelof have real shot at success.
As for this year’s “clear top ten,” I think it’s a safe bet they won’t be the ten best in a few years.
A few might be, but there are always the nuggets that get found in later rounds–sometimes very late, like Mike Piazza. And first-rounders who look solid, like Jeren Kendall, who turn out to be seriously flawed.
I like those stories that re-imagine how a certain draft of the past should have gone. The 32nd pick of the 2016 draft was our Will Smith–and he’s clearly had more success than the 31 guys picked ahead of him.
The 64th pick has done OK too: Pete Alonso.
Looking down the list, geez…. it was a really good one for the Dodgers.
Lux was picked 20th, Smith 32nd, Mitch White 65th, Dustin May 101, DJ Peters 131, Devin Smeltzer 161, Luke Raley 221, Gonsolin 281, Dean Kremer 431… They only whiffed on a couple, including, Jordan Sheffield, picked 36 out of Vanderbilt. But the vast majority of the Dodgers’ top dozen top picks have made it to the majors.
I don’t think AF & Associates would waste a first-round draft pick on the next Juan Pierre.
Kendall was a top college player who was, like George, a first-round pick. He was projected as a 4th outfielder at worse but was simply a bus. He was just a bust. Vogel was a 3rd round pick out of high school. He’s still plugging away.
But the Dodgers scouts were obviously higher on Kendall George, a high schooler. It was reported that the Dodgers were hoping to get him in the second round, but then a guy they were targeting got drafted by another team. To me, the fact that they quickly pivoted to George shows how much they believe in his ability. They passed on many other possibilities before choosing Geloff so they could secure George.
We know George is extremely fast, and makes a lot of contact, and can cover CF. He’s also young and could add some pop with maturity. He’s still about a few years away. If all goes well, he could move Outman to a corner and perhaps even replace an aging Mookie at leadoff. (Mookie would be fine batting behind Shohei.)
It would be fun to know what the scouts were thinking. Was it, “This kid reminds me of Juan Pierre?” (I looked it up: Pierre was a 30th-round draft pick by the Mariners. He did well.)
Or maybe, “This kid reminds me of Tim Raines.”
I like it. Kenny Lofton comp.
That would be fantastic if Kendall George had a career along the lines of Kenny Lofton. Lofton is one of those very good, but just not quite good enough to get into the HOF. I think he was more deserving than one and done (3.2%).
Lofton had a bit more power (okay more than a bit) than Kendall George. Comp bat to ball, speed, and defense. Lofton was 24 before he reached MLB and was 25 in his rookie year. I think George gets to MLB before 24. Again maybe it is my heart more than my head talking.
Yeah, power is big difference but Lofton was pretty scrawny when he first came up.
I still prefer Raines, but I’d settle for Lofton.
That’s a good one.
My dark horse pick is 20 year old RHP Reynaldo Yean.
Signed out of the DR a couple of years ago and in his time in the organization has a 15.8K/9 inning line. Problem is he also walks a lot of guys.
He spent time at the ACL and Rancho last year and I assume he’ll start at Rancho again this year.
I predict future stardom for Reynaldo; however, I do not expect him to win the Cy Young this year.
Another good choice. He got spanked a bit at Rancho with the HR.
“Problem is he also walks a lot of guys.” – Isn’t that an issue with most LAD prospects? Especially those with power arms? Except maybe Landon Knack, although he is not really a power arm.
I have only seen Yean on YouTube.
This is about a year old:
He is listed at 6′ 4″ and 190 pounds, but I have been told he weighs 250 pounds now. I have no idea if that is true. He throws at least 101 MPH and is known to have just one pitch, although he says he has three. He’s a reliever all the way.
Thanks for posting this, Mark.
I can see a slight resemblance to Kenley, which is probably even more pronounced now if he’s anywhere near 250 lbs. Now we just need to teach him that cutter.
Nice pick Jeff. I too am a huge fan of tall. I’m amazed at the number of 6’4′ and taller pitchers I watch fall ball, Spring Training and MiLB. When coaching I encouraged lots of flat ground work, like towel-drills, that promotes extension and length. Every 9 or 10 inches of release closer to home is 3mph in perceived velocity.
A smart high school coach should be in the middle schools looking for tall skinny basketball players with big feet and hands and asking if they’ve ever pitched. (one stumbling block is HS Hoops coaches who demand full-time basketball commitments even in summers from their athletes) The 6’6″ ish white kids have no future in pro basketball but make promising pitchers. The tall kids can take a little longer to get it together, especially the lanky lefties, but I loved to watch these kids grow into their solid mechanics, and find it on the bump.
Karros has certainly had some advantages unavailable to regular Jimmy’s and Joe’s and hopefully he will take advantage of a fresh arm a the Dodger’s great development program.
Angels signed Drew Pomeranz to a minor league deal. Arraez loses his arbitration case with Miami. Poor baby has to play for 10.6 instead of the 12 he wanted.
Good move on Pomeranz. Rooting for him and the Angels, who need so help.
Best case: they add JDM and Snell. More likely: neither.
Really surprised that JDM is still on the market. Interesting how ex-Dodger JT got the gig with the Jays and Joc got the job with the D’backs.
Tall and long strides make those pitchers susceptible to injury via line drives up the middle.
I know there is a paywall for the Athletic articles, but there is an outstanding article on Don Newcombe. I often wonder what he could have accomplished in 1952 and 1953 if hwas not inducted into the army in his prime years.
Bear, this has your name all over it. Can you do a Don Newcombe post? One of the all-time great Dodgers, and a better person.
https://theathletic.com/5233855/2024/02/14/don-newcombe-dodgers-oral-history-black-aces/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=343446
Sure. I can do one on Newk.
Looking forward to it, Bear.
I am happy to do it. Always thought he was a cool guy. Sure was a snappy dresser. And he helped so many former players. On a side note, Ohtani blasted 10 more BP homers. I cannot wait to see this guy hit in a Dodger uni. Moustakis signed to a minor league deal by the White Sox and Moreno says he is not selling the Angels unless he gets an insane offer. Sorry for the Angels fans having to have that loser for an owner.
Interesting news out of Spring Training that the fifth rotation spot (fifth IAOI Paxton starts the season in the rotation) is not Sheehan’s to lose. It’s purported to be an open comp between Yarborough, Stone and Sheehan.
Other bit of interesting news comes out of Plunkett with the OCR ($$$$$):
Where Roberts seems to Pooh-pooh the idea of a six-man rotation:
“‘I think the downside is just kind of when you do that, with off days, there are other guys that don’t need all that extra time, so… in trying to be as sensitive to everyone and that middle – to get guys ample time in between starts but also not giving certain guys too much time.’”
I am not sure that is all that surprising. I think that is the way it has always been discussed. I think many believed it would be Sheehan because he was the last one of the kids standing last year. I believe it will be Sheehan, but I have no say.
Can we call it a 5.5-man rotation? Perhaps 5.75?
Seems that the Dodgers will break camp with Yoshi, Glasnow, Miller, Paxton and Sheehan (possibly Stone) in a 5-man. Then Stone (or Sheehan) and Yarbrough mixed in when appropriate.
I would love to see Knack or Ryan or ?? have a big spring and get into this conversation.In a few weeks, Buhler will get added with a pitch limit.
The depth is nice–and also a reason why it could be smart to package a guy in trade for Devin Williams and his airbender. His contract has 2 years of control, so he wouldn’t come cheap.
I think this is how it plays out Duke, if the past five years have shown us anything.
The Dodgers are going to have a lot of innings to go around.
When we used to discuss whether the Dodgers would go after Ohtani, I argued that it made so much sense because it would marry the “brands” of Shohei and the Dodgers. It was a win-win that other franchises couldn’t possibly provide Ohtani. (Perhaps this seemed all the more logical to me because my favorite teacher in high school was a Mr. Guggenheim. He was an eccentric dude who taught logic and Latin and reminded us of Mr. Spock.)
And now the Dodgers (including Ohtani) will be literally wearing the Guggenheim sbrand (with a big G) on their sleeves.
I’m not thrilled about this, but I guess the Big G group just invested more that $1 billion in the team, so at least they’re not cheapskates.
I’m not expert, but I understand that the Guggenheim group is investing in other teams in other sports. Pushing the G brand to Asia (and beyond) seems to be strategic.
Back in pee-wee days, I was on the Dodgers once and the Giants once. I forget which was sponsored by a local sheet metal company, and which was sponsored by the 7Up distributor. But the 7Up logo looked better.
Insofar as Rookies go, with respect to any rookie making the rotation, it is possible that Knack, Stone, or Sheehan could make it at some point, but I doubt that pitchers like River Ryan (who is fairly new to pitching and needs more innings) who are not on the 40-Man even have a sliver of a chance. Of course, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Miller, and Paxton are the big 4 (if healthy), and if they start Buehler a little late, then Sheehan, Stone, or Knack could fill the #5 spot. I think this is one of the bigger stories of Spring. Odds are, only one of those three makes the team.
Sheehan is the huge favorite with Stone a legit candidate. No reason to name it now. Competition is good. Knack a longshot but potentially ready.
I really hope AF is exploring the possibility of a trade for Devin Williams, under contract for ’24 and ’25.
The Dodgers will certainly have a six-man rotation in ’25 and it seems four spot are locked up: Shohei, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Miller. This is Buehler’s walk year, so I’m not counting on him.
Several prospects are under team control: Sheehan, Stone, Knack, Ryan, Frasso, Wrobelski, and others–and May and Gonsolin should be back from injury. And Kershaw has an option too. And Ferris, Bruns, Kendall Williams and others are another year away.
Anyway, I count about 8-10 pitchers for two openings in ’25. Of course, injuries are likely to change the equation, but it sure seems that one or two could be dealt to bring in perhaps the best closer in the game.
The Brewers just dealt Burnes, so they certainly could use another ML-ready SP.
I am sure the Dodgers would trade Knack, Bruns, and another pitcher for Williams, but I think Milwaukee would demand Sheehan. I would not do that.
On another issue: It used to be that every spring, you could find photos of just about every player as they reported. Specifically, I have been looking for Andy Pages to see if he has remained slimmed down. What I have found is the media is so fixated on Ohtani and Yamamoto that they have 10,000 photos/videos of them and very few of the other players.
I did see that Max Muncy looked a little svelte!
If so, I might have to change Max’s nickname from hamburger. As for the 25 rotation it may also include Kersh and Sasaki. Seems AF is enamored with him and he should be. The kid has otherworldly stuff. If AF is confident that he wants to come to the Dodgers, then giving up some young pitching for Williams really makes sense for this year. Though not Sheehan. I love his stuff and his makeup.
Mark, I saw a snippet of a few Dodgers hitting BP on Access Sportsnet Dodgers (local Dodgers news show on Sportsnet LA in our area) on last night’s show and there were a few milliseconds of Pages sightings. He was shown taking BP and another with him hanging with the other fellas. From what I could see in the short bursts containing Pages, he looked pretty svelte as he did at spring of last year. If you can find last night’s episode on the stream, you can see him there.
Not a huge fan of the Uniform patches but this is classy at least. And yeah you spend over a B on the team you can do what you want. Im ok with it.
Fangraphs has released their latest Top 100 Prospect list:
River Ryan – 19
Rushing – 60
Cartaya – 68
Liranzo – 72
Hurt – 86
Joendry Vargas – 92
Back to 6/100 again. Ryan is really high compared to some of the other lists.
And no DePaula on this list, but I’m guessing he’ll be on the next one they release.
Busch is at #84.
More than any other publication, FanGraphs looks at FV differently. They truly look at FV and try to include an estimation as to where that player will eventually play at the MLB level. They include any prospect with a FV of 50 in their top 100. This year it is 101. I have seen it as high as 133 (2021).
Fangraphs must not have completed their evaluation of the Dodger prospects yet. There is no LAD prospect in the list after 101. So we do not know whether De Paula is a 45+, 45, 40+, 40… What we do know is that the other publications put a real emphasis on his hitting, and apparently Fangraphs puts more emphasis on his ability to be something other than a DH.
They graded Miguel Vargas very low as well. For 2022, Fangraphs considered Vargas a fringy at best 3B/1B that did not possess the perceived requisite power for a corner player. They did recognize (and still do) that he has a 60 hit skill as a predominant contact hitter. But without a position (in their estimation) that matched his hit skill, he would be a fringe ML player, thus a FV of 45. They likened him as a Yandy Díaz comp. Commentary – I will take that every day.
For 2023, they projected a position change to LF which they believe he had more of a future as an every day player and upgraded him to 50.
Here is what they said last year.
The offensive bar in left is at roughly the same level as third base and if we project Vargas to be able to play a neutral left field (he’s below average right now but looks better than he ever has at third), it actually buoys his overall profile because his third base defense was pulling it down. In that case, we’re talking about a rock solid everyday player in the Mark Canha mold, and in fact Vargas’ career has tracked in a similar fashion, especially as we stand on the precipice of a likely position change.
I will take a Mark Canha comp as well.
h
I sense the same commentary will be attached to Josue De Paula, and his max grade will be 45+ or 45.
With respect to River Ryan, I believe most publications believe his ceiling is higher than the others. However, he is still a baby to pitching. However, he has a plus fastball (60), an above average slider/cutter that looks to grow to plus (55/60), and an above average curveball with late break that should grow to plus (55/60) They also believe his change has a chance to be at least average.
Per Fangraphs:
This is one of the better all-around pitching prospects in baseball, a pretty likely mid-rotation starter who might have significant skill development in his later 20s. It’s plausible Ryan could be one of the best five starters in the org at some point in 2024 and make his way into the rotation, but there are currently so many suitable options already on the 40-man roster ahead of him that’s it’s more likely he gets his footing in the big leagues in 2025.
The other publications probably feel the same with his projection, but they are more likely to not grade as high due to where he is at right now…very limited experience.
Once the Dodgers list is out, I will do an in-depth analysis. I like Fangraphs.
Thanks for the feedback on the list Jeff. I’ll take Yandy Diaz also.
As far as DePaula, I would hope he can field as well as Yordan Alvarez with a bit less power. I think we’d all settle for that.
https://www.mlb.com/news/yoshinobu-yamamoto-watches-shohei-ohtani-take-batting-practice?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
10 homers from 29 pitches 2nd time around.
Why are most publications and most here high on Josue De Paula?
Serious question.
Josue De Paula has one of the best left hand swings in baseball. His hands are quick to the ball, and he stays on it all the way through the swing. Combine that with excellent pitch recognition, and you have the kernel of a .300 hitter. His hand eye coordination and pitch recognition allows for a 18% K rate and 13.5% BB rate. Keep in mind that he is 18 years old.
He has power potential that is not yet realized. His swing will need to be adjusted to get more fly ball than line drive, but he sees the ball early enough and well enough to make that adjustment.
He is only 18 years old and played full season A Ball in the Cal League in his first US appearance. He was one of the better hitters in the Cal League. DePaula was 16 plate appearances short of a qualifying 356 PA. If he had, his .284 BA would have been top 5 in the league.
Here is a youtube video of his swings.
Thanks Jeff
I asked because in 2 seasons at the A ball level at 18 and 19 years old, Vargas had .017 BA and .030 OPS better than him and it turns out Vargas was overhyped. DePaula is starting out being hyped just like Vargas was. Neither one cracked the .800 OPS mark, although Vargas was .799
Still early… De Paula, Jeondry Vargas, Thayron Liranzo, Kendall George–a lot of promising young position players to follow. This is part of the wave forming on the horizon.
But the closer wave doesn’t seem as promising. Last spring, Outman and Bobby Miller won jobs–and Miguel Vargas was handed one. This season, the roster seems set, with just a skirmish for the back of the rotation.
Miguelito is now the 27th man on an impressive 26-man roster, and an injury can give him a shot. Feduccia is insurance. With a couple injuries ,perhaps Sweeney gets called up.
As strong as the Dodgers are right now, I still wish there were more guys really knocking on the door.
Our top prospects close to being ready are pitchers. We have three superstar offensive players so we need them to stay on level until the next wave is ready.
There is a bit of a gap.
Actually I do not believe Vargas was overhyped. He has an exceptional hit skill. I do not believe we have seen the real Miguel Vargas as a hitter at MLB. His bat to ball skills are legit. I hope he thinks doubles more than HR. With the power the Dodgers have, they do not need Vargas to have 30 HR power potential. He should have a consistent 15 HR power. If Vargas was on most of the other 29 teams, he would be playimg in MLB, but he is blocked by the Dodgers. He could have played LF for the Dodgers this year, but the Dodgers are a better team with Teoscar Hernández. I want to see how he handles getting reassigned to OKC not needing any additional AAA play time. He is only 24. If he continues his AAA dominance, he will be back in 2024. There will be injuries.
The biggest difference between Vargas and De Paula in their early years scouting grades is that Vargas did not have projectable HR power. De Paula does. We still need to see that power projection come to fruition.
Duke jumped on the Outman Bandwagon when James was 6-13 in his initial callup. He was convinced James was the second coming. I have always felt James was a platoon player, so when I promoted Vargas as having a great hit tool, he decided that Vargas was bad, and everything that has happened since proved he was right. It is my opinion that he would rather see Vargas fail than succeed! Everything he posts screems that!
I 100% agree that Vargas has an exceptional hit tool. I’m afraid I have to disagree that he may have the power to hit 30 HR. I think he will hit 30 HR, not every year but some. I base my opinions on what I see… not what others may say.
I like DePaula, but I need to see more before I predict what he will do. I am not a projectible guy.
P.S. Eric and Duke may be the same guy!
You are very silly! No, super silly!
Me and Duke are not the same guy, come on. Duke has no problem with trading top pitching prospects that are ready or almost ready, but I do. That’s one example. My original question was about hype and overhype that’s all.