MLB Pipeline was the last of the major talent evaluator services to publish their LAD Top 30 prospects, and there are some surprises. Before I delve into the MLB Pipeline prospects, let’s do a little summary on all 6 publications. As a reminder, I use six publications:
- Baseball America – Top 30
- MLB Pipeline – Top 30
- Fangraphs – Top 49
- ESPN – Top 40
- Athletic – Top 20
- Baseball Prospectus – Top 21
I know there are others, but I choose to focus on these six.
Not all publications use a top 30 format.
Five Dodger prospects are consensus top 10:
- Dalton Rushing
- Josue De Paula
- River Ryan
- Andy Pages
- Diego Cartaya
Nick Frasso was named on 5. Keith Law (Athletic) left him off his list because of his season ending injury. However, he did report that Frasso would have been at the back end of the top 10 if it were not for the surgery. That would have been 6 consensus Top 10 prospects.
Kyle Hurt was named on 4. Both Keith Law (Athletic) and Kyle McDaniel (ESPN) had him just outside of the top 10 at number 11. That would make 8 consensus top 11.
Gavin Stone, Jackson Ferris, and Justin Wrobleski were named on three top 10 lists.
In all, 17 separate LAD prospects were included as a top 10 prospect on at least one publication. That really is a small number of prospects identified as Top 10 in 6 different publications.
A couple of days ago, Bluto reported on the ages of each of the MLB Pipeline Top 30. It was encouraging to see that 17 of the 30 are 21 or younger. It would have been more encouraging to see if any of those 21 or younger prospects were closer to MLB than they are. None played higher than High A. But it is evident that the Dodgers do have a next wave of good baseball talent coming up.
Of the 30 top prospects per MLB Pipeline, 12 were acquired via International Free Agency, 10 were drafted, and 7 were acquired via trade. Of the top 10, 4 were IFA, 4 were trades, and 2 were drafted (Dalton Rushing and Gavin Stone).
Included in the top 30 were RHP (8), OF (7), SS (5), LHP (4), C (3), 3B (1), INF (1), and C/2B (1). Pitching still dominates, especially RHP. Do the Dodgers really need three top 10 catchers?
The biggest surprise for me was seeing Zyhir Hope at #21. He was not included in any other publication as a top prospect, including Fangraphs’ top 49 or ESPN top 40
A twitchy athlete with a beautiful left-handed stroke, Hope already produces 110-mph exit velocities as a teenager. He hasn’t seen a lot of quality pitching and tends to chase pitches out of the zone, so he likely will need some time to hone his approach and develop at the plate. But his combination of easy bat speed, growing strength and some natural loft in his swing could translate into plus power in his prime.
They also included a comment that he is a potential 30-30 player and can easily stick in CF. Some teams saw Zyhir as a pitcher, and if he does not progress as a position player, he can always try pitching.
In one of the better trades the Dodgers have made this past winter, the Dodgers have acquired a potential everyday SS in Trey Sweeney. MLB Pipeline does see that potential. He will certainly get that opportunity before any of the other 4 top 30 SS prospects.
Sweeney established himself as one of the better hitters in the 2021 college class, and Los Angeles plans on letting him revert to what worked for him in college. Though he employed a sizeable leg kick and pronounced bat tip at Eastern Illinois, his uncanny hand-eye coordination permitted him to barrel balls and make a lot of hard contact from the left side of the plate. He manages the strike zone well and still offers the upside of a solid hitter with average power if he can get back on track.
Sweeney has stayed at shortstop longer than most scouts expected. He has increased his speed from below average in college to average in pro ball, and he’s even quicker once he gets going. He’s an opportunistic basestealer with decent range, reliable hands and solid arm strength at short.
Most who have followed me know that I am an unabashed fan of Brett Butler. Maybe that is why I have an affinity for Kendall George. He is totally out of the LAD power hitter mold.
Some scouts have semi-jokingly labeled George as a 90 runner on the 20-80 scale. He is a sub 4.0 seconds from plate to 1B. Dodgers believe they should be able to coax some power out of him, but his bat to ball skills, speed, and CF defense make him a MLB prospect.
Even with his control issues, Maddux Bruns continues to stick in the middle of the MLB Pipeline top 30. That is a testament to his “stuff”.
Los Angeles has helped him clean up his strong 6-foot-2 frame and his mechanics, having him use a high three-quarters slot rather than the over-the-top delivery he employed in high school. He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter but a greater likelihood of becoming a power reliever.
This will be a big year for Bruns. Does he take the next step to a rotation spot, or become that high leverage power reliever. He will most certainly be given every opportunity to excel in a starting role.
I think one of the more pleasant surprises has been the ascension of LHP Justin Wrobleski. He has even made three top 10 lists. The same as Gavin Stone and Jackson Ferris.
Though Wrobleski battled the strike zone and averaged 6.3 walks per nine innings during his college career, he has cut that rate to 2.9 in pro ball. His quick arm and explosive athleticism have translated into more consistent stuff and control now that he’s healthy and getting regular innings. He’s a potential No. 4 starter who may not need much more time in the Minors.
Another key trade this winter is Michael Busch and Yency Almonte to Chicago Cubs for LHP Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope.
Ferris has frontline-starter ceiling and resembles Blake Snell at the same stage of their careers, albeit with better stuff and a cleaner delivery.
Blake Snell may be an unfair comp, but if he even approaches the level of Blake Snell, Jackson Ferris will almost certainly be in the future rotation for LAD.
The third of the prospect catchers is 20 year old Thayron Liranzo. Liranzo is somewhat in the Max Muncy mold as a hitter. Big power, especially to the pull side, a lot of swing and miss, but a lot of BB. He is a switch hitter. I know Bear will not like it, but he looks to be a Yasmani Grandal type catcher. But what about his defense and receiving skills?
He has the hands to become an average or better receiver and moves well behind the plate despite well below-average speed on the bases. He owns at least plus arm strength and will deter the running game even more as he improves his throwing accuracy.
One of the more in flux pitchers on the list is 26 year old RHP, Kyle Hurt. He looks like he could be a potential closer. But he also has a 4 pitch repertoire with two plus pitches, one above average, and one average. Thus the Dodgers are going to lengthen him as potential starting pitcher. Like most LAD prospect pitchers, he has below average control. But there is no denying his strikeout capability.
Per MLB Pipeline, Kyle has a better chance than ever of reaching his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter and also could develop into a high-leverage reliever. He will definitely be pitching for LAD this season.
With all of the talk about defense at the SS position, the Dodgers effectuated a trade for a defense 1st SS…Noah Miller. Noah has a brother, Owen Miller, on the Brewers roster as a utility player. It is hard to argue about Noah’s defense after winning a MiLB GG at SS. Miller is a MLB SS, but can he hit?
Though Miller batted just .220/.326/.318 in his first three pro seasons, Los Angeles hopes to unlock more impact by helping him improve his swing and his approach. He’s a switch-hitter with bat speed from both sides of the plate and shows the patience to draw walks, but he makes a lot of soft contact and rarely drives the ball with authority. He’s an average runner with good instincts on the bases.
He sounds like a potential “Baseball Player”.
One of my favorite MiLB players that I will be following this season is 18 year old RHP, Jesus Tillero. As a 17 year old last year:
Tillero displayed a 94-95 mph fastball that touched 97 with plenty of induced vertical break. His slider parks at 83-86 mph at its best and could become a solid or better offering once he improves its consistency. He also has the makings of a decent changeup but hasn’t used it much in game action.
Tillero already repeats his sound delivery with ease and walked just six batters in 10 DSL starts. He’s not very big or physical, so he’ll have to prove that he and his stuff can hold up over a full-season workload. But he’s off to a promising start and could turn heads when he makes his U.S. debut in 2024.
Let’s see if any of the three IFA SS rises to the level of a top 100 player:
- Joendry Vargas
- Emil Morales
- Alexander Albertus
Will Yeiner Fernandez move more permanently to an infield position or utility role?
Will Josue De Paula become at least a serviceable OF this year?
Will Eduardo Quintero get a bit more love in the prospect ratings if he continues to hit?
The Dodgers have a promising MiLB affiliate program this year, especially at the A+, A, and Rookie level, although technically the Rookie level is not an affiliate. I very much look forward to watching and writing about the development of many of these players.
Interesting stuff, thank you so much!
I question why trying to stretch Kyle Hurt out to be a middle rotation starter, when he looks like he’s got late inning reliever skills right now?
Seems we did the same thing with Josh Sborz, who was the closer of the year while at Virginia, and yet we decided to have him try out starting for years before getting rid of him. Of course, he’s a Ranger bullpen arm now.
Also. Tonight lineup is out and Lux is at 2b with Mookie at SS
Just a little confused by the use of the term Top 10.
I hope Lux’ confidence isn’t severely diminished by what appears to be a possible demotion. And I’m not convinced Betts to shortstop at this point is a good idea.
This whole Lux issue is giving me a migraine! All the king’s horses and all the king’s men can’t get Lux to throw the ball straight to Freddie! It’s hard to believe that with all the Dodger braintrust that they haven’t either (A) seen this coming or (B) been able to fix it. This isn’t a new thing folks!
In the meantime, they are now continuing to try to jam square pegs into round holes. Mokie is going to need Google Maps to determine where he is playing each day!
And then there is the Willie Adames saga. Really? That’s the fix? Last time I saw poor Willie he looked like a deer in the headlights taking a called third strike from Urias to end the World Series. No thanks!
Send Lux to AAA or trade him. Put Rojas at SS. With this lineup I think we can afford to have one batter that doesn’t hit .330 with 40 HR’s and 120 RBI’s but can throw the ball straight.
Well that ends the Adames discussion. Mookie will do fine at SS. The more he plays there, the better he will get.
Seemed like a complete no brainer decision to me. You couldn’t watch Lux and not see that there was a big big issue for him at SS. I still think his knee is just not there yet to handle that position. It will be interesting to see if he is capable of making the turn on the double play, also hard on a weak knee.
We got snow the other day and it is about 23 here this morning. Glad I am inside and all warm and cozy. No baseball the last two days, been maddening. Watched some games from last year.
Rosario was offered more money by the Yankees than the Rays but opted for the chance of more playing time over the money. Yankees still looking for infield depth. It is going to be weird seeing Joey Votto in Blue Jays gear. But after all these years, he gets to play for his hometown team.
This feels like a knee jerk move to me. Lux previous issues with throwing were resolved and he was pronounced the Dodgers SS in ‘22. Why would they do that if “he couldn’t make the long throw from short”? Then he gets injured and is rehabbing for a year. This winter he was once again pronounced the starting shortstop. Did he not prove to brass he could play that position before making that bold announcement?
Who is minding the store here? Was his hundreds of reps on the practice fields under the watchful eye of the organization’s infield coaches not enough to recognize they may have a problem here? Apparently not. So within days of the season starting, and 10 plays in game situation, they decide to make this move.
A few thoughts immediately come to mind. 1. You want to wear down your 31 year old All League leadoff man this will do it. 2. I don’t believe this is permanent. 3. I hope Lux can handle this demotion psychologically. With what he’s already been through the anxiety and potential depression this may cause could affect his hitting. I sure hope that is not the case.
But, time to move forward. This team won’t be good defensively. But they likely won’t need to be. The pitching should be good and the offense, provided Mookie can carry through, should be great.
“Mookie is the permanent shortstop…………….for now”. Permanent, for now isn’t permanent at all. I think this is all going to work itself out in time but for now it’s a distraction. There are other things that should be the focus at this time at spring training with their short schedule this year. You would think that a team as talented as the Dodgers would have an everyday infield up the middle pretty set at this point but a lot of accommodates are being extended for Lux’s bat. I am totally aware of the limited sample size for Lux so far. But I reported early on that he had a limp and he has yet to make one single play that was clean at short and now 2nd. Last night he tossed a submarine short hop to Freddie from 40 feet. I can smell his brain burning as he preps to throw the ball.
I don’t know how this will end but we may be compromised at 3 positions while it gets figured out. And Muncy isn’t exactly Nolan Arenado at 3rd. In the meantime, the entire team is playing shitty. Maybe it’s spring training fatigue as players want the season to get started and maybe it’s something else. But the pitching, all be it not our frontliners, has been marginal. Varland and Yarborough looked awful, and the play in general has been sub par. I am not overreacting but Lux needs to start clearing his attic and playing better.
Good grief. Just start Rojas a SS and bat him 9th. His defense alone makes the team better. We have signed plenty of offensive players. If they get the job done, having Rojas at short will not be a problem. The impetus is on Mookie, Freddie, Ohtani, Muncy, Smith, THernandez, Heyward, and Outman to get it done offensively.
Lux injured his right knee which is the knee he pushes off to make long throws. He could be favoring it physically or maybe just mentally. I think the Dodgers are saying the right thing regarding switching Betts and Lux. I am thinking they hope Lux will be their shortstop but for now are trying to let it happen at its own pace with fewer questions about when.
If the left side defense needs improvement there is a chance it could be made at third instead of short.
Anybody who predicted Lux would have troubles defensively at the start of the season was stating the obvious. Lux, like Badger has said, has demonstrated in various places and times that he can play short satisfactorily or he wouldn’t still be entertained as a shortstop.
That settles it, Okey should be Smith’s backup. Trade Barnes. Hope Treinen is ok.
I feel like Grove could be traded. He’s ready now, doesn’t have a huge with us one way or the other and we seem to have no room for him. I anticipate a trade to free up a roster spot and add a lower level prospect.
Giants placed J D Davis on waivers. Yasmani Grandal suffering from plantar fasciitis.
Jeff, what is it going to take, in your estimation, to get Pages and Gauthier on this team? Both seem like future pieces for the Dodgers but the FO moves like molasses.
Also the showing of Okey is impressive. Out of the blue, his name is now on my follow list.