Every year I do like to go out on a limb and pick a player who I think could come out of nowhere and become a breakout prospect. My criteria is not absolute, but it generally has to be a player not in any publication top 30. I cheated a bit with Gerardo Carrillo and Jake Vogel, but neither were highly thought of prospects with any kind of following.
My first and undoubtedly best dark horse candidate was LHP Caleb Ferguson for 2017. I first began to follow Ferguson in 2016. He was a SP at the time, and helped lead Great Lakes to the Midwest League Championship. They were low A at the time. For GL he amassed 50.1 IP. He had 41 K and just 3 BB. I was a fan.
Big time misses followed…Melvin Jimenez and Gerardo Carrillo. Brett de Geus was not a bad pick, and I did like Nick Nastrini before most had heard of him. My sole position pick was CF Jake Vogel. I backed those up with a couple of what looks to be good picks in Justin Wrobleski in 2023 and Jared Karros in 2024.
Notice a trend? I like pitching prospects. Not really that big of a reach since the Dodgers do seem to develop young pitchers. And because there are so few top position player prospects, they are generally included in the upper ranks in the top 30 lists.
Some have suggested Eriq Swan, but he has too much of a following for my pick. I like Patrick Copen but he was on the Spring Breakout roster for LAD last year. Three others that I was leaning to were LHP Wyatt Crowell, RHP Chris Campos, and RHRP Reynaldo Yean. I had actually started a post on Yean, but decided to go into another direction.
I am really stepping out this year and going with a position player for 2025…OF Jaron Elkins. One criterion the Dodgers strongly look for in their draft picks (and prospect trades) is athleticism. Elkins fits that role perfectly. He was an exceptional All-Region running back (1,000+ yards) at Goodpasture Christian High School in Madison, TN. He was also a QB and linebacker. He was also on the wrestling team.
“What separates Jaron is not necessarily just his athletic ability, but his ability to compete,” Goodpasture coach Jim Carter said. “It doesn’t matter if it’s a football field or a baseball field. Any opportunity that he gets to compete, he’s going to enjoy that challenge, dig in and grind and give the best of himself.”
Continuing with his athleticism, Elkins was a CF, C, P on the highly rated and respected baseball team.
“Depending on the day, I’ll be behind the plate (at catcher),” Elkins said. “If they need me on the mound, I’ll go on the mound. After I pitch, I’m usually in center field. I just cycle through.”
Because of his football pursuits, as a baseball player he was never on any of the senior circuit showcases, and was a relative unknown as a senior. However, baseball has always been Jaron’s top priority and he committed to NCAA tournament regular Wright State in August 2021.
What Elkins did have was a teammate who was widely scouted by MLB teams: SS/3B Carson Rucker. Rucker was a 4th round selection of the Detroit Tigers, and is currently ranked #20 for Detroit by Baseball America. MLB Pipeline has not come out with their top 30 by team yet, but he was #23 on the final 2024 ranking.
It should not come as a shock as to how the Dodgers came to sign Elkins. He is from Tennessee and was therefore scouted by super scout…Marty Lamb. The Dodgers drafted and signed him in the eighth round for an over-slot $407,500.
For 2024, Jaron spent the full season in the ACL at the age of 19. In 228 PA, Elkins batted .285/.412/.457/.869, 19 XBH including 5 HR’s, 20 SB, 33 BB and 80K. He obviously has holes in his swing, but he has not had the extra tutelage that his counterpart peers have had while in high school.
Here is what Baseball America had to say about Elkins in their pre-draft scouting report.
“He’s a standout athlete with tools, including plus or better running ability, plus arm strength and a short and direct swing from the right side. He was not a prominent player on the national showcase or travel circuit, so his hit tool is likely a question for most clubs and will ultimately determine his value and role. He should stick in center field, which takes a bit of pressure off his bat.”
Perhaps the thrill of his short professional career was when he got a call from the LAD front office and was offered an opportunity to come to LA from the Arizona Complex League and face Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a sim game as part of Yoshi’s rehab. Of course he said, YES!!
Per excerpts from a Dodgers Nation article chronicling the venture:
“I (Elkins) got a phone call last night around 9 p.m. from one of our front office guys.” He asked me if I wanted to get out of Arizona and hit off Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Of course, I said yes.”
“It all happened pretty fast,” he added. “I’m super grateful for the opportunity, not just to face Yamamoto, but to see how veteran guys go about their business.”
Elkins was one of two hitters to face Yamamoto in a two-inning simulated game. The other batter was Hunter Feduccia.
“He’s obviously got some great stuff,” Elkins said of Yamamoto. “Velocity wasn’t a shock, his splitter definitely caught me off guard with how hard it was.”
He struck out in his first two at-bats and hit a chopper to third before turning on an inside pitch and lining it to left field for a base hit.
When asked how it felt to get the base hit, he responded with: “It was a nice confidence boost.”
Elkins has no idea why he was chosen for this opportunity but he soaked up every minute of it.
By the end of the sim game, he was offered a chance to stay for the game or catch a flight back to Phoenix. Of course he chose the latter because he didn’t want to miss his game on Thursday.
I am banking on his athleticism to jettison Jaron Elkins into a top 30 prospect list before the end of season, and perhaps be knocking on a top 100 list sometime soon.
Thanks for the report on Elkins, a guy I’ve been curious about. Another gone to monitor as he progresses (we hope) through the ranks.
In today’s news, Rushing came off the bench to get 2 hits in 2 ABs, including a walk-off double.
Just a spring training game against the Angels… but very nice to see.
Great pick, Jeff.
Agreed, great pick.
I don’t know anything about any prospect at all which I why I always enjoy reading from the “experts” here to enlighten the masses with their research and observations. If you say I should keep my eye on any kid, this kid in particular, that I will do. Thanks Jeff (Bear too). Keep them coming……TM
I like Eduardo Quintero. Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50. He’s 19 so it may be a while. Nobody knows how young prospects will fare against better pitching but a 55 hit tool with speed tells me he could be a top of the order prospect.
I’ve been watching Kim closely and it’s my impression he may be pressing. He’s chasing bad pitches, which is never a good sign. I still believe he can hit .250 and help this team with his speed and defense. But his hitting problem begins with the first rule of hitting – get a good pitch to hit.
Here’s my take. Fielding translates from any league but hitting doesn’t. If the Korean league is comparable to our AA ( my guess) then Kim is like any other good hitter from that level, shows promise but wait and see.
I agree. I find the most compelling point with Kim is the fact the Dodger brass, allegedly leaders in the field of scouting, traded Lux and gave this guy Kim more money than Lux is making. Why would they do that? More importantly, why would I question them doing it?
I too like Quintero, but he is a bit more advanced up the prospect lists. He is #7 Baseball America, #12 Baseball Prospectus, #9 MLB Pipeline (last list 2024, 2025 still coming). That is not a dark horse prospect candidate for me. Same with Joendry Vargas, Kellon Lindsey, Emil Morales…
Ok. Wasn’t aware of a criteria. But I find anyone in A ball a dark hose. The odds of them making it to the big leagues are quite slim.
MiLB players are dark horses. I broke my criteria rules with Gerardo Carrillo and then Jake Vogel. And even though they were very lightly rated, the baseball Gods were not happy with me. But Caleb Ferguson, Brett de Geus, Nick Nastrini, and Justin Wrobleski all made it without being on a top 30 prospect list when I selected them. I hope Jared Karros makes that leap as well.
I can certainly appreicate your criterion that all A ball and rookie level prospects, regardless of their prospect status, can be dark horses. I agree that by definition, all A level and rookie level players are longshots. That would include Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula. IMO, those two are not dark horse candidates for a breakout year. But I can get behind someone making Kendall George their dark horse candidate.
So many star in A ball then just can’t make that jump to better pitching in AA. You just never know. Hope and De Paula look like can’t miss prospects But they haven’t done a thing in AA yet. I picked Quintero because I think he can move up quickly.
Dominated Rookie ACL and struggled as an 18 year old in low A. He will start the season again in Rancho and should do well. He is a good bet to make a move up the prospect rankings this year. He could be a top 100 by the end of the season with Hope and De Paula.
I was sent the 2025 Baseball Prospectus by a good friend. He had two copies. I plan to start reading it this weekend. Looking forward to seeing Sasaki piggyback with Yamamoto next week.
JD Martinez has had some contact with the Yankees. With Stanton’s status unsure, he could be a stop gap fix.
Has there been an update on Stanton? Last I heard he was headed to NY for testing. Not that I care all that much— this is the Yankees problem after all.
Well, they are the better team. Just ask them. 😀
Update today, he is going to start the season on the IL.
That makes a lot of sense. Heck, JD might even be faster than Stanton.
Wishing him the best.
Pickleball can wait…
Logan Wagner
Interesting choice. He should be a 21 year old in Great Lakes. This could be the year he breaks out.
MIne will be Kendall George.
I had some hope for Kendall George when we drafted him but I’ve decided that he’s more likely to go the way of Jeren Kendall and Jake Vogel than ……..(fill in the name of a speedy successful centerfielder).
I very much hope I’m wrong and you’re right Bobby.
I’m going with Brendan Tunink as my breakout pick although, to be honest, I have no idea if he’s in anyone’s Top 30 and I have no idea where the team will have him playing this year. Hopefully he makes it to Rancho at some point.
When I saw video of him on draft day last year, I told my son he reminded me of the video I saw of Bellinger the day we drafted him.
I started looking and found the video of that swing. I can see why you like him.
“Baseball America on Wednesday picked sleeper prospects to watch in 2025 for each team. The Dodgers’ selection here was Brendan Tunink, the outfielder drafted out of high school in the eighth round last year. He signed for $412,500, the fourth-highest bonus signed by the Dodgers in that draft.
“The team coveted him thanks to his combination of athleticism, speed and remaining projection,” Josh Norris wrote. “As with any tooled-up high schooler from a cold-weather state, his development might take longer than a more veteran prospect, but the results should be worth the wait.”
Good choice Jefe.
Tunink seems a lot like Elkins.
I can’t claim he is a “sleeper,” but I had high hopes for Hope on the day of the trade.
Everything I read suggested he was a premium athlete with a high ceiling. So far, so good.
Might be wishful thinking, but Michael Sirota seems like one to watch as a “breakout” candidate.
Brendan Tunink fits the LAD mold of athletic. Tunink is #20 on Baseball America’s list of LAD Top 30. He is a good pick. He was on my watch list already as well.
Interesting that BA has him as high as #20 already which I guess disqualifies him from this little exercise, but I’ll be interested to watch his progress.
He qualifies for your dark horse prospect, and since he has yet to play professionally, he would qualify for mine as well.
I’ll take Brady Smith if he’s a sleeper
Interesting comment by Longenhagen about DePaula:
Justin: Josue De Paula’s future hit tool grade dropped from a 55 at the midseason update to a 40 now. Could you talk a little bit about this change? Was this more about new information that he provided in his post-July performance, or was this more about you re-thinking flaws that always existed?
Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, his swing looked so weird by th end of the year. Guys this age are going through so many physical changes that they sometimes trend in strange, unexpected ways. I describe it in his blurb, but the way his base degrades as he swings is just weird looking to me, it scares me
DePaula had a really nice line drive hit to LF today off some leftie.
That lefty was former Padre Joey Lucchesi.
Brady Smith qualifies for your sleeper candidate. I listed my criteria and I try to follow it, even though I have stepped over the line with two in previous years. But like with Badger, your criteria is yours. Smith was on my short list
I got no criteria, totally subjective.
For my player with the favorite name, the only criteria is that I like the name and they are a player.
Commissioner Rob Manfred is considering a petition from Pete Rose’s family to remove him from the ineligible list.
My dark horse:
Reynaldo Yean, the pitcher who hit 105 mph last year occasionally at RC.
Could see him take the same route as Henriquez last season IF he can controll his velo
Go Dodgers””””””””””””
If I had gone pitcher, Yean would have been mine. With the information I have gathered, I plan on writing a post on him. Like you, I think he has the potential for a Henriquez rise. His control will be what holds him back.
Well the Dodgers are 1/2 done with their 2025 Spring Training in Az. With 10 games left.
I have some thoughts and observations so far:
*Miserable day yesterday at Camelback Ranch. The wind was brutal as you could see if you watched the game on TV. Teoscar was totally fooled on a fly to right, as many were. It did allow Kim to hit an opposite field HR, that was definitely wind aided. He will need some seasoning in AAA. I agree with Badger about early tweaks to his swing. It seems they might want to see more before they change shit.
*Hope and DePaula are very impressive 19 year olds that seem locks to break the trend of the Dodgers not producing stars through the organization. I see them being starters and huge impact players in 2027.
*I really like Dalton Rushing’s bat. When we start looking at bench pieces, I can see him as a valuable power pick hitter maybe this year. With a bench with CT3, Kike, Miggy, Barnes and maybe Kim, I think Rushing could add some pop, in time. The obvious dilemma is do you want him sitting in the Show waiting to pinch hit or does he need to catch in AAA? I’d love to see a power bat on the bench later in the year.
*I still need CT3 gone.
*You may have heard Adam Hamari, the HPU, caught on a mic saying it was Spring Training for him too. He’s usually a very good balls and strikes guy but he was awful Saturday. He had 4 calls challenged by Austin Barnes and Barney was right every time. It is obvious that the catchers are best suited to challenge balls and strike calls. And Hamari was brutal.
*I would still favor a full-time ABS System in play for reasons I have expressed before. But the players overwhelmingly favor a challenge system and it has seemed to work well and quickly. So, despite my opinion, I’m going to shut about it and just enjoy the opportunity to get more calls right.
Now, Rob, put it in for 2026. I hope this isn’t destined to become a bargaining chip for the next CBA.
*I think Max Muncy has a terrific eye at the plate which allows him to walk as much as he does. So why has Doc restricted him from challenging pitch calls this spring?
*I saw the “quotation marks” strike zone superimposed the other day of the TV screen, replacing the rectangle to represent the strike zone. I like the rectangle removed by the way, with ABS in play, for reasons I’ve previously stated.
But I don’t understand how the little brackets are supposed to define the corners? From what I’ve read, the strike zone they are settling on is actually egg shaped, rounding off the upper corners both in and away. It’s a little more generous on the lower corners.
So why don’t they put the egg shaped oval strike zone superimposed on the TV screen if that’s what it is? Maybe that’s something for the future.
*Will Smith had a much better year last season throwing out steal attempts. But holding runners has been a problem for Dodger pitchers. It’s dawning on me that as an organization, they really don’t give a shit. We win a 100 games a year, out-slug teams and pitch, especially the bullpen. So don’t bother the pitchers by trying to screw them up with slide steps or quick pitchers, or varying looks. Just get the hitter out. I honestly think they are not that concerned.
*I’ve just about had my annual fill of Tim Neverett and Rick Monday. Both are well suited for the radio. That way all the mistakes they make can’t be checked with video. They both, but especially Tim, have Tim McCarver disease. Some of the ignorant fan type questions Tim lobs at Monday are ridiculous. Both talk to the lowest common denominator of listener.
*I’m not the grammar police or nit-picky but my favorite Saturday was Tim talking about Jon Miller’s expansive off-season travels. Tim report that Jon and his wife “like Magellan, circumvented the globe”. I think he meant “circumnavigated” the globe.
*Watching morning workouts on the practice fields of Camelback Ranch used to be fun and casual. Now with the increased crowds and the reduced areas where fans can watch, it’s become a zoo. I’’m done with it. I’ve seen plenty of BP in my lifetime. As crowds have increased, the space allowed for fans to watch, has shrunk each spring. I asked the lady with a counter at the entrance to the path that leads into the practice fields about attendance and she reported over 5000 fans were crammed into small areas along the third and first base lines of the fields, that day. The players have a roped off path to get from the clubhouse across a path to the BP field where they can then cut to the other practice field and pitchers mounds, with no contact with any fans.
*I have a friend who comes to Glendale every spring training from her home in Nevada. She spends a month in Az and loves Dodgers. She has purchased season Spring Training tickets for years. Each of the last 2 seasons, the tickets have increased in price drastically, her seats have moved and she gets less perks.
She loves the games and visiting the morning workouts on the back fields. The last couple of years she’s acquired access wristbands occasionally through a coach, that lets her get into more restricted areas to watch BP and workouts. That area has shrunk the last 2 springs. The wristbands change colors daily and most of the security staff don’t know or care if she wandered into the area designated for the media, mostly Japanese camera-people. Except one Security Nazi. Last week after she had wandered into the “wrong” area, he spotted her and didn’t just ask her to move into the proper area; he had her physically thrown out of the entire complex. He basically said she wasn’t welcome back. Totally unnecessary overreaction and he seems to relish his power position.
*Last January, I was riding my bicycle around the parking lot looking to see if they had installed a new bike rack by the ticket windows where I can lock my bike for games. As I was resting on a bench outside the main entrance, an old bitty in a Cushman cart stopped, told me I was trespassing (the gates were wide open to the lot) and threw me off the premises. I’m not clear what mischief I was supposed to be planning.
I’m positive that these security folks are employees of Camelback Ranch and the city of Glendale and NOT the Dodgers but their behavior just reflects badly on the Dodgers and Camelback as being family un-friendly venue.
*We really need to see someone separate themselves from the pack in the outfield in the next 10 games.
It seems as though things have gotten much worse at Camelback with the coming of Ohtani, not that I’m blaming him for this.
The Dodgers had better wake up to the fan comments on this because it puts a real stain on their otherwise sparkling reputation as a team.
And Shohei won’t be around forever. They need to watch that they don’t alienate so many fans that they’ll suddenly be playing to half empty ST games after he departs.
My kids and I fortunately have sufficiently scratched itches to visit Dodger Spring Training so after hearing what is happening now, I won’t be returning.
STB – The Japanese reporters and camera folks are given a big section all to themselves to follow Ohtani’s every move, which is scripted. They are rude, pushy and inconsiderate to everyday fans who just want to watch a practice.
The Japanese love their cameras.
Sorry to hear that, Phil.
I spent a fair amount of time in Japan during my business life and always found the people to be friendly and very polite. The exact opposite of what you are describing.
Of course, the last time I was over there, Shohei was about 10 years old and probably not yet being followed by a horde of people with cameras.
Interesting post Phil. Thanks.
When I lived in Sedona I went to Spring Training at least one day for 10 years. That was enough. I wouldn’t put up with what you’re describing.
Interesting take on the Dodgers pitching and holding runners. Hadn’t thought of that but it kinda makes sense. Give a look then focus on the hitter.
The strike zone is clearly defined in the rule book and it’s over the plate. The corners have been missed for years, and as you point out the upper corners are missed regularly. That needs to be corrected. ABS does that. Maybe hitters don’t want that because those are the hardest to hit.
Agree about Tim and Monday. I’m not that crazy about Orel either. The Dodgers could do better.
You’re welcome Badger. I appreciate your thoughts.
Not-fun fact: A poison arrow killed Magellan in the Phillipines, but his crew sailored on and finished mission.
So Magellan’s effort to circumnavigate the globe was circumvented.
Very circumdescriptive Duke. Though I was aware European’s …. visits…. pissed off a lot of locals I wasn’t aware of Magellan’s fate. Maybe it was mentioned in my 9th grade World History class, but there’s not much I remember from that class. I do remember Mr. Six, yep, that was his name, saying the most important date in history was 1066, The Battle of Hastings. Why I don’t recall. Suppose I could look it up but now I have to get the trash to the curb. Maybe later.
Max allowed to finally got to challenge a pitch today, and he was right. Split squad games. Against the Athletics, as they wish to be called, the team has scored 7 runs. Bote hit his second homer of the spring and drove in 3 more runs. Outman was 2-3 with a run scoring triple. Edman and Betts both went 0-3. Teo and Freeman homered against the White Sox. Glasnow looked good for his two innings. The one hit he allowed before being pulled in the third did not score. Yates allowed the only run so far. Freeland hit his first homer in the 9th against the A’s to make it 8-1.
Spring Training stats now indicate Outman doing better than Edman. CF finally resolved!
Edman would then move to second and start there
Dodgers beat A’s 8-4. A’s scored 3 in the 9th. Wrobleski gets the win, Freeland and Bote homered. Dodgers beat White Sox 6-3. Freeman and Teo homer. Sean Linan gets the win. LA now 6-6 in spring games. They do not play tomorrow. Tuesday’s game is a night game against the Reds with Yamamoto getting the start, and Sasaki piggybacking him.
Would be very patriotic of the Dodgers to find a way to have Freeman and Freeland on the opening day roster.
Maybe Glasnow can change his name to Glasnost and we’d be global in our freedom messaging.
Over the top. Turn the Pages on that idea
Good one.
And so was Bluto’s.
My apologies to everyone. Bear is working on a post but it will not be ready before Tuesday. I thought I would be able to a write new post completed but life got in the way. Everyone is going to need to continue on this same post.
Not an issue Jeff. Just appreciate all the work you and Bear do for the site
I picked up Elkins 1st Bowman a few weeks ago, so rooting for him to break out. A guy that caught my attention in Rancho is Sterling Patick. Average sized lefty drafted out of high school a few years ago, so he’s still pretty young. I thought for his age, the control was good and his ability to recover it after a bad sequence or two also caught my attention. Bruns, Heubeck, Martin have live arms, but they have a hard time getting out of the gutter when they find themselves there. He doesn’t throw a burner, but it looks like he can spin it with the riding FB and pretty CB. Slider still a ways off. His stats aren’t eye-popping, but I think there’s a lot to work with.
So Roberts has confirmed the obvious: the only unsettled positions are at CF and 2B.
He’s also confirmed that he wants Edman in the lineup every day.
But it isn’t clear whether Edman would handle one position full-time, or perhaps shuttle between CF and 2B.
Barring an injury or a surprising trade, Taylor, Rojas and Kike all seem to be locks to make the roster. All are right-handed hitting UT guys. Those three plus Barnes round out a bench. All bat right-handed.
That would complete the imperfect roster.
Even David Bote, with his spectacular spring, would be shipped to OKC along with Kim, Outman and Pages. (Rosario, I think, might be able to opt out for another ML gig.)
A better roster, I think, would feature Bote and perhaps Outman.
Bote has had a spectacular spring. Just a fluke in a small sample? Perhaps not. He worked with Dodgers hitting coaches before he signed the major league deal. Bote has earned the consideration.
Why Outman? First, he’s the best defensive CF on the team, and he is still the guy who hit to a .790 OPS as a rookie, including 22 HRs against righties. Based on proven potential, the optimum lineup would have Outman’s glove and power in CF and Edman at 2B.
Many were quick to write Outman off as he started this spring very slowly. Bbt he has now raised his OPS to a .745–fourth on the team among players with at least 15 ABs.
Yeah, every sample is still small, but Outman is streaky and could keep it up. Another consideration: When he isn’t starting, Outman would be the only lefty-hitting option off the bench.
But I don’t think either Bote or Outman will make the roster…. not without an injury or trade.
Who plays center?
And in my opinion, which hasn’t changed, the reason second base is still somewhat in the air is because Mookie isn’t there.
And now I read Smith is still battling the ankle bone bruise that hampered his production last year. It is said he is likely to start the season but he won’t be 100%.
There is still time for certain players to step up. Outman has looked better but Kim had better stop chasing that down and in breaking ball or his career will be short lived. I see fangraphs still has him at second and Edman in center in their Dodgers depth chart. That’s kind of what I’ve been thinking, and with Edman’s 1.299 OPS against LHP last year I’d like to see a platoon with Outman out there.
The Dodgers aren’t perfect but they should be fine.
Only one of Outman and Bote has a chance to go to Japan
They both can go, there will be a taxi squad just like when they went to Korea.
New post should be ready tomorrow. Had some medical issues to take care of first. Not to worry, feeling pretty good. Just appointments that cut into the day. And my phone died, so had to order a new one. Dodgers made first spring cuts. Frasso, Dean, Hope, Duran, Ward, sent to minor league camp. No real surprises.
Lovely Rosenthal article about Kristian Campbell and one-time Dodger (and the recently referenced) Dee Gordon:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6169751/2025/03/03/kristian-campbell-red-sox-dee-strange-gordon/
Really happy Anora one, although the architecture buff in me was also pulling for The Brutalist.
Haven’t seen it but I liked Conan’s joke about it.
Great article, Jeff. I’m excited about the idea of seeing him in person.