Next!!

I am increasingly more bemused by what AF/BG are actually going to do this offseason.  After committing  to nearly $1.2B last year, I was not convinced they wanted to go big again this Winter.  I was also not so sure they would not.  After the Ohtani and Yamamoto contracts signed last Winter, AF/BG threw out the book as to what they were most likely going to do.

The baseball pundits take a statement from both AF and BG that they will be looking for SP, and surmised that the meaning of those statements was they were looking for elite SP.  They were “looking for pitching” when they signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.

Well, the baseball pundits were right, as AF broke yet another one of his traits by signing Blake Snell to a 5 year $182MM contract (present value between $160MM and $165MM).  This was the first $cott Bora$ contract longer than 1 year that AF ever successfully negotiated.  Although the AAV was just about where most thought it would be.

I do think AF/BG is looking for one more starter.  IMO, I do not know if that will be an mid to top of the rotation pitcher or back end.

None of the LHSP who MIGHT be available matches the pedigree of Garrett Crochet.  I do not know what that cost will be, but I am sure the Dodgers can put together a package that can help both teams.  I do not know who all was involved in the 2024 deadline proposal, but if it fell apart because the Dodgers were not willing to include Dalton Rushing, they might have missed out.  I like to think that the addition of Rushing made the offer too much of an overpay at the time, and there was not enough time to make it work.  They had to pivot quickly for Jack Flaherty.

Crochet is 3 years younger than Flaherty and 4 years younger than Buehler.  He will be far less expensive than either Flaherty or Buehler.  Someone commented that they did not want Crochet because he is a sub .500 pitcher.  Is it really that shocking that a pitcher for the worst W-L team in the history of MLB had a sub .500 W-L record?  2024 was the first year Crochet was a SP and he pitched 146.0 innings, more than any LAD pitcher other than Flaherty.  His ERA last year was 3.58 but with a 2.69 FIP, xERA 2.83, SIERA 2.53, his peripherals were much better.  His K/9 was a very impressive 12.9, but his SO/W ratio was a more impressive 6.33.  Those numbers are all comparable and slightly better in multiple metrics than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell. The rotation could be Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Crochet, Ohtani and Miller.

But if AF/BG are still truly in on Crochet, they will not be alone.  Philadelphia is very much involved in the discussions.  They are reportedly willing to package Alec Bohm and  CF prospect Justin Crawford  for Crochet.  That is a better package than Lux and Rushing.  But do the Phillies really need another pitcher?  I guess everyone does.

Maybe AF/BG is more comfortable with back of the rotation options: Michael Lorenzen or Jose Quintana.  Give the young guns more time to percolate.

Would the Padres be willing to include C Ethan Salas or SS Leodalis De Vries in a trade?  The problem is that the Padres do not have a MLB position player available who is not on a long term contract except Jackson Merrill, and he is not going anywhere. Jake Cronenworth will cost SD nearly $11.5MM AAV through 2030. That is a non-starter for CWS.

NYY and NYM could be players, but it does behoove CWS to wait until the Soto sweepstakes is complete.    I am not sure Atlanta has the prospects to entice Chris Getz, and neither Orlando Arcia nor Jarred Kelenic is going to move the needle.

So, if the Dodgers want Crochet, they can put a more competitive offer together than any other team.  I am just not sure that is the route they want to go with the bevy of MLB ready pitchers they have in their stable.

Then I read this from Miggy Ro:

“Knowing that Mookie is going to be back, it makes me happy. It makes me excited to keep working with him and to keep going at it with Mookie at short and second base, because I know how better he got when the time was there.” 

When I read this, I got the impression that SS is not out of the question for Mookie.  Miggy does not need to work with Mookie at 2B, although it certainly would not hurt.  His tutelage is for SS (IMO).  If Lux is not included in a trade, he is probably back at 2B for LAD.  Thus, as long as Lux remains with the Dodgers, Mookie Betts will be the SS.

Now that Tommy Baseball (move over Donnie Baseball) has been extended, the guessing game for where he plays is in full force.  Apparently sportswriters are split as to whether Edman is a SS or CF or both.

We will know more of the “plan” once we learn whether the Dodgers acquire a LF, CF, and/or SS.  For CF and SS, IMO, it would have to be via a trade or internal.  There is not a difference making free agent CF or SS.

For LF, do the Dodgers want to give Teoscar Hernández a third (or fourth) year?  Both Boston and NYY are very bullish on Teo.  The problem is, if not Teo, then who?  No, it is not going to be Juan Soto.  If they are not willing to give the extra year to Teo, I cannot see them offering it to Anthony Santander with a QO attached.  Yes he is younger and a switch hitter, but he did not help Baltimore the way Teo did for the WS Champions.  Tyler O’Neill?  Jesse Winker? Michael Conforto? Harrison Bader? Max Kepler?

I know there are a lot of Dalton Rushing fans out there, and they do not want to see him traded.  I understand wanting the LAD prospects to move up to MLB with LAD.  But like Lux if Mookie plays 2B, there is no position for Rushing as long as Will Smith is there.  He is not a LF.  He is playing there to get more ABs in AAA.  But does that play out in MLB?

Rushing does not have to be protected this year, so he will probably start back in OKC. But will it be as a catcher, or more as a LF/1B/DH?  I do believe he is a MLB player, but just not with the Dodgers.  IMO, his best value right now probably comes in a trade.  Or would you rather see him wither on the vine like Ryan Ward and Diego Cartaya?

Luis Robert Jr. is not going to be traded this winter without a significant overpay.  CWS wants position players for Crochet.  Why would they trade their best position player without that significant overpay?  Can the Dodgers offer one?  Absolutely, but AF is probably not going to.

I would be all in for Kyle Tucker, even as a rental.  But if Alex Bregman goes elsewhere, Houston needs to extend Tucker.

What other OF has both the offensive and defensive chops as does Tucker, Mookie, Judge, Julio Rodriguez? None of Steven Kwan, Ian Happ, or Colton Cowser are going to be traded.  One does come to mind, Boston’s CF Jarren Duran.  Is that a possibility?   Boston is not saying no to him being available.  But certainly improbable.

There are offensive juggernauts like Soto, Santander, and Nick Castellanos who struggle defensively, and there are defensive stalwarts like Jake Meyers, Brenton Doyle, and Jacob Young who struggle with the bats.

Byron Buxton would fit the criteria if he could only stay on the field.  He played in 102 games in 2024 which was the most since 2017.  Only two years > 100 games.

But maybe, just maybe, AF/BG believe in James Outman more than most fans.  He would not be the first player who bombed and then came back to have a good career.  We have no idea how his wife’s pregnancy could have influenced his season.  His pressing at the plate, along with the pregnancy, could have put him on an emotional roller coaster.  Once she delivered and the baby came home, James became a different hitter.  For the month of September, in 84 PA (75 AB), Outman slashed .360/.429/.693/1.122, with 4 HR, 12 XBH, 9 BB, 18 K (21.4%)  Rushing for the month of September slashed .230/.338/.459/.797, with 4 HR, 6 XBH 9 BB, 1 HBP, 15 K (21.1%).  Outman is also a better runner and defender.  I would go with Outman over Rushing in the OF.

IMO, Outman deserves a 2nd chance.  He is that player who is capable of producing both offensively and defensively.  Will he?  That is why they play the games.

Do the Dodgers believe that Alex Freeland is the LAD future SS?  How long will they have to wait for Joendry Vargas, Emil Morales, or Kellon Lindsey to emerge?  I mentioned earlier in the week some SS who might be available.  I thought that Willy Adames was more likely going to play in SF, and he is the only needle moving SS in free agency.

Although not likely, Cincinnati’s Matt McLain could be available.  Also not likely, but possible is Washington’s C.J. Abrams.  Does anyone believe that Seattle’ J.P. Crawford is due for a bounceback year?  What is the likelihood that the Dodgers could convince Arizona to trade Jordan Lawler or Geraldo Perdomo to them?

I am sure Boston would love to trade Trevor Story and his 3 years, $72.5MM contract.  I doubt that the Dodgers feel the same about acquiring Story.

There are just too many “what if” scenarios to know where AF/BG are leaning.  The Dodgers could go in a dozen or more directions, including doing nothing else.  We sit and wait.