I wrote Saturday about LAD RHSP Tony Gonsolin going onto the IL with elbow “discomfort”. Of course this sounds ominous. I asked then and I will continue to ask…why?
There has to be something with what the LAD organization is doing (or neglecting to do), rather than to just throw out self-serving platitudes to advise they are doing everything possible to understand why this is happening. Well it is not working!!! Thank you Captain Obvious.
BTW, it is not surprising that Gonsolin is injured again. He has not looked good all year. Maybe this is another Tyler Glasnow situation where the pitching gurus tried to make changes to Gonsolin’s delivery and it led to another injury. I do not know if that is true, but why should we fans believe anything from LAD about trying to curtail pitcher arm injuries when they are happening even more often, if that is even possible.
The team started the season with 8 pitchers already on the IL:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Evan Phillips
- Brusdar Graterol
- River Ryan
- Gavin Stone
- Emmet Sheehan
- Kyle Hurt
- Michael Kopech
The above does not include Shohei Ohtani who was not technically on the IL but was definitely not ready to pitch.
Of that group, only Kershaw and Kopech have been reinstated and have remained on the roster. Phillips has subsequently returned to the IL and has had TJ surgery. The Dodgers do expect to see Graterol, Sheehan, and Ohtani sometime this year. How effective?
Since Spring Training, 10 different LAD pitchers have since gone onto the IL:
- Blake Snell
- Tyler Glasnow
- Blake Treinen
- Edgardo Henriquez
- Michael Grove
- Roki Sasaki
- Luis Garcia
- Evan Phillips
- Kirby Yates (Reinstated June 7)
- Tony Gonsolin (twice)
Of the names identified above, 13 pitchers are currently on the IL. No MLB team has come close to matching these numbers.
San Francisco has all of two pitchers on the IL, Justin Verlander and Jordan Hicks. That’s it. What are they doing differently?
In 13 starts, Logan Webb has 81.1 IP this year and has thrown 1,251 pitches. 9 starts went at least 6.0 IP and 6 starts reached 7.0 IP, and 2 starts reached 8.0 IP. 10 starts, Webb threw at least 90 pitches with 7 starts reaching at least 100 pitches. Webb is averaging 6.26 IP/start and 96.23 pitches/start.
Perhaps it is the 1.9 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 that keeps his pitch count down. His ERA is 2.55 with a NL leading 2.14 FIP. His 4-seamer is averaging 92.7 MPH. That would seem to indicate location over power.
He is not the only one with SF. Robbie Ray has 77.1 IP and 1,221 pitches. That is 5.93 IP/start and 93.92 pitches/start. Ray has 10 starts with 90+ pitches and 2 starts with 100+ pitches.
Both Webb and Ray are injury free.
The only LAD pitcher who is considered qualified is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Dustin May is the only LAD pitcher close, but the pitcher with the 3rd most IP, Ben Casparius, has thrown 40 innings. That would rank #7 on the Giants.
It is difficult to fathom that an organization who is as deep as the Dodgers are, and with as many resources the Dodgers seemingly have, that the number of injuries they have sustained are extraordinarily high. It is evident to me that those who are responsible for the research are not doing a mensa level analysis. Not only is the training regimen in question (has to be doesn’t it), but those responsible for reviewing medicals also has to be questioned. Is there a trained bio mechanical expert looking at video to determine if pitchers are going to have potential injuries with their delivery before they are traded for or drafted? Is Dustin May’s new drop down arm angle beneficial to mitigating injury concerns?
If you believe this is only a problem with the MLB club, it isn’t. MiLB ILs are filled with LAD organizational pitchers.
Maybe the scouting crew and development crew should cease concentrating on power and look more into pitching.
If the situation does not improve, perhaps Mark Walter/Stan Kasten/Magic should dictate to AF/BG to find a better team to handle the pitching regimen and medical analysis of pitchers.
Yes, I am serious and this is not a joke. I would sure like to understand those who believe that the current situation with the pitcher injuries is acceptable. That is loyalty taken too far, IMO. It is not as if 2025 is an anomaly. How many years have the Dodgers run out of healthy pitchers by playoff time. Something has to change.
Maybe free agent pitchers will be thinking differently before they sign with LAD. I mentioned a few days ago about NYM 2024 pitchers who seemingly came out of nowhere to become stalwarts on the NYM staff: Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and this year Clay Holmes and Griffin Canning. Paul Blackburn (??).
Next year the Dodgers should enter Spring Training with 11-12 starting pitchers under LAD contract and/or control:
- Blake Snell
- Tyler Glasnow
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Roki Sasaki
- Emmet Sheehan
- Gavin Stone
- River Ryan
- Tony Gonsolin (if he does not need another elbow surgery)
- Justin Wrobleski
- Bobby Miller
- Landon Knack
- Jackson Ferris (not yet on 40 man)
Unless changes are made, just how confident are you that we will not see a repeat of 2025 and to a larger degree the last several years? There is no reason to believe that results will change unless the LAD scouting/development/medical changes are made.
I have said I do not expect significant changes in 2025, but that does not mean that there cannot be significant changes after the 2025 season.
I suggested it last year and adamantly suggest it again this season. Change your system. It is systemic and the FO refuses to deal with it. Which home grown pitcher in the Dodger org has survived this?
Jeff name something this front office takes accountability for. The data you presented is overwhelming their approach with pitchers sucks.
It’s almost as though the front office seems to value fragility over durability…
And the “churn” suggests that quantity matters more than quality.
When the season started, it seemed that Shohei’s return to the mound was a luxury for a juggernaut.
It could turn out to be a necessity to compete against the Padres, Giants, Mets, Phillies, etc.
I hear both Kimbrel and Bickford are available…
Jeff, I think you touched on some of the reasons, but also, wonder how many innings/ pitches thrown , say the Giants pitchers had compared to ours thru Spring Training. How much build up are our guys getting. To me seems we coddle during ST but maybe we have to with our fragility.
A very valid and solid query. If true, maybe the first step is to reconsider signing that many fragile arms to begin with.
You mention the Giants significantly lower IL for pitchers. Snell pitched for the Giants as recently as last year. Has anyone from the Dodgers asked him what they are doing differently?
Call me a cynic but for relievers, do the Dodgers go for power over for finesse because relievers are fungible.
Fungible. Good word.
$100 million for 15 starts. Read that in The Times this morning. That would crush most teams. Not the Dodgers.
This will be a second half juggernaut or it will be a very disappointing year.
Jeff, this has been a often discussed topic most of the season. I’ve commented about this situation for the past 3-4 seasons. The most common response is “all teams have injured pitchers and it’s just the way it is in today’s game”. I find that to be a lame excuse. The Dodgers are considered the “gold standard” when it comes to pitching development. I would think part of that development would be keeping pitchers healthy. Every pitcher is different, but it seems like it’s one size fits all with the Dodgers.
The past couple of FOX (I think or ESPN) broadcast of a Dodger game they put up the Dodgers pitching IL numbers. I believe they were the following:
2020 – 4th most
2021 – 8th most
2022 -present – each year #1 in IL stays
So, the lame “all teams are having arm injuries with their pitchers, so just except it” doesn’t excuse the Dodger front office and staff. It’s a chronic issue with the Dodgers. Why they have not tried to correct or improve the problem is a mystery to me. Guggenheim can afford the best of everything. Why invest hundreds of millions of dollars into players and then subject them to an average to poor medical staff?
If I was a MLB or MiLB pitcher there would be six words I wouldn’t want to hear “you’ve been traded to the Dodgers”. The definition of Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result. I won’t call the front office insane, but they are incompetent at best when it comes to pitchers’ health. The first thing they should do is admit THEY have a major problem. I mean they have to be in crisis mode right now.
Claude Osteen mentioned above that it might be helpful to look around the league to see who is having better success at keeping their staffs healthy. To me that’s a Captain Obvious idea. Quit trying to reinvent the wheel. Use (copy) and build on another teams success with pitching health. With Snell in the building (and injured) ask him what is what with the Giants philosophy, methods, and staffing.
With the way things are going with the staff I really am not that excited about Ohtani returning to the mound. He was originally going to begin pitching late April, early May. Now, it’s after the All Star break. To me it’s quite the risk with the team’s recent injury history with starters. If Ohtani gets injured it’s a double whammy in that he’s their 2nd best hitter and it would be a major blow to the the Dodgers’ postseason goals.
It’s tough trying to be a fan of a Dodger pitcher knowing that an extended IL stay or surgery will soon to be likely.
Carry on.
The irony is how all the talk used to be about how good the Dodgers were at fixing pitchers and or developing pitchers.
Spot on Jefe. It is ridiculous that LA has so many pitchers go down with arm and shoulder injuries. It is a problem across baseball, but it is an epidemic in Los Angeles. Yesterday they wasted a great performance, again, by their best pitcher. At this point I think it is safe to say the race for the division is going to be a dogfight. Only reason they are still in first place is because neither the Giants nor the Padres have taken advantage when the Dodgers have been floundering.
Some excellent takes on a subject that has been discussed, as Ted mentioned, for years now. It is just that this year it has reached such a disheartening level with all of the injuries. It is tough to question LAD management, but when it seems warranted, I am glad this is the site that does not bow down to the neon God AKA The Los Angeles Dodgers Front Office and can question without impunity. Are they the best? With all of their assets, it is hard to argue that they are not. But something is amiss with their handling of pitchers. Even José Feliciano can see that.
This is not an indictment on AF/BG. Far from it. IMO, the knowledge is there to make a change. They just need to have the internal fortitude to see it and then do it. Mark Walter/Stan Kasten/Magic has to have issues with a $400MM+ payroll ($570MM with tax), and then seeing more time on the IL than on the 26 day roster (yes a little hyperbole). They authorized it, but this cannot be the results they were expecting. But after the season is over, quit pontificating and act. Be a vehicle of change rather than one for status quo.
Now that I have finished venting, I am looking forward to a robust next 97 games, and hope for a 2nd consecutive WS. Until proven otherwise, I still believe that the majority of Snell, Glasnow, Sasaki, Sheehan, and Ohtani will pitch sometime between the All Star Break and the Trade Deadline. I also expect to see Treinen, Henriquez, and Graterol return for the final push.
AF/BG are good, that is a given. But they are not the baseball savants that some people think they are. They have made their share of mistakes and deserve some criticism or scrutiny.
The Dodgers are only a couple of games of not making the playoffs.
Nice Jefe, using Feliciano instead of that other guy!
Pages not starting today as Kersh goes against McGreevy.
Jeff d – Great coverage of the Dodger’s epidemic of arm injuries that have decimated the staff
I have discussed and suggested ad nauseam about my ideas to address the number of arm injuries. It’s killing the game. Just a few days ago, Badger provided a list of issues that lead to arm issues. I too have listed a bunch of ideas that I used for years and I have had zero arm injuries like shoulder or TJ surgeries. I’m just lucky.
I think it’s a mix of a little bad luck made worse by a great number of other things that have been discussed. These things range from scouting, medical evaluations and histories, overuse by college coaches, lack of development in the minor leagues, not enough other physical and strength training, including running, too much innings and pitch management and too little throwing to build arm strength along with the accepted culprits; too much velocity and spin starting too young and lasting year round without adequate down time.
It is a known fact that “To minimize UCL tears through strength training, focus on strengthening the muscles that support the elbow, particularly those involved in throwing and overhead movements. This includes the shoulder rotator cuff, rhomboids, trapezius, and forearm flexors and pronators. Additionally, consider strengthening the core and scapular muscles to improve overall stability and reduce stress on the elbow.”
I also blame some Travel Ball (or Daddy Ball) where the coaches know how to charge money to play, make travel plans, reserve rooms and buy uniforms; but they can’t coach and don’t understand preventive sidewalk between outings. I can’t tell you how much I’m against shit like 10 year old travel-ball teams.
It’s a big puzzle but the Dodger’s methods aren’t working. I compared the Dodgers to the Mariners who are way more successful keeping pitchers healthy while pitching way more innings and getting more starts. They had a couple of guys down finally early this season and they are now coming back. They do something right that is beyond luck.
Maybe ultimately the Dodgers really don’t give a shit. Next man up. It’s lip service but nothing changes. Just like our lack of commitment to holding runners.
Great post Phil. Thanks. A lot to think about.
I don’t know anything about youth travel leagues. Never involved with them. I do of course believe it’s wise to limit innings on young arms, though I wouldn’t know exactly how to do that.
As for what the Dodgers are doing, I think it has to involve quickly developing fastball velocity and snapping off breaking balls to produce spin rate. As you know I’m a believer in recovery and along with that it’s my opinion if you are going to insist on maximum velocity you must also insist on limiting number of pitches. I’d also like to see an an adjustment in the pitch clock.
“Maybe ultimately the Dodgers really don’t give a shit”.
There is that. They can afford it. Just buy more arms. Sure feels stupid but, stupid is as stupid does. And they’re doing it.
Hmm. I didn’t think it was this bad, but you are correct, but it’s 60% of their rotation that’s been shelved.
Starting rotation was expected to be: Kirby, Gilbert, Castillo, Miller, Woo/Hancock.
Kirby has been shut down all season with shoulder inflammation.
Miller has been on the IL with Elbow Inflammation.
Gilbert has been on the IL with an Elbow Strain
News from Internet:
Baseball America ranks Farm Systems ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-mlb-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-teams/
Dodgers at #3. Up from 9 last year.
“Trades have thinned the Dodgers somewhat, but the top of the crop is plenty strong and only got better after landing No. 1 overall prospect Roki Sasaki…”
Dan Szymborski had a chat:
TKDC: If a team could be convinced that Bauer would change how he presents himself publicly and at least pretend to be a halfway decent person, do you think he could be signed, or is his past baggage and current talent level still make him a negative value asset?
Dan Szymborski: This is a hard question for me to ask simply because at this point, I can’t claim to have any particular insight in how a *typical* fan sees these things.
Per Eric Cross:
Dalton Rushing has been up with the Dodgers for exactly three weeks now.
He has accumulated 31 plate appearances in those three weeks.
Baseball America looks at the Dodgers IFA class ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/los-angeles-dodgers-2025-international-signings-review/
“After Sasaki, the top signing for the Dodgers was expected to be catcher Francisco Rivero, who had moved from Arizona to Venezuela to live and train there. Instead, Major League Baseball didn’t allow Rivero to sign… Arguably the best Latin American signing this year for the Dodgers was Adrian Torres…”
Michael Baumann looks at Ben Casparius
“That’s because Casparius has been really good this year. Out of those 187 qualified relievers, he’s 29th in K-BB%, third in FIP, and second — SECOND — in WAR. WAR comes in such small increments that it doesn’t always (or even all that frequently) paint a comprehensive picture of reliever performance….”
Eduardo Quintero can hit the ball:
https://x.com/InfiniteDodger/status/1930828116437676353
Jay Jaffe looks at the Dodgers trading for Alexis Diaz
“The Dodgers will not only have to get Díaz’s delivery in working order again, but they’ll also have to counter the multiyear trends that have compromised his performance. He’s a two-pitch pitcher, with a four-seamer that’s receded from an average of 95.7 mph down to 93 this year…”
Future Dodgers on Quintero:
https://x.com/FutureDodgers/status/1931183564437016860
Quintero is in a rare class with what he’s done so far this year. In the past 20 seasons, for Low-A players in their age-19 season or younger, he’s got the 6th highest single-season wRC+ (200+ PA).
Notable observation from this list: most (15) of the first 22 players here would eventually be ranked a top ten prospect in baseball (via BA).
The others:
Quintero
Bonemer & Caldwell: 2024 draftees
Davis & Kieboom: peaked inside the top 20
Decker & Montero: made one top 100 list
Obviously, (a) it’s been two months and things can change, and (b) top ten prospect in the game ≠ major league success. But at least as it stands now, history indicates that Quintero’s value as a prospect is likely pointing straight up.
Interesting mention of Trevor Bauer. He owes the Dodgers about three years of free baseball………..
I’m actually not interested at all in this guy. Maybe he was set up and maybe not but him putting himself and the Dodgers in that situation is so stupid. He owes the Dodgers a boat-load of money they lost on his sorry ass.
Needed the win to stay in front of the Padres, who shut out the Brewers 1-0. Nice 5 innings by Kersh. Getting out of that jam in the 5th turned out to be huge. Bottom of the lineup did most of the damage with Edman and Kim driving in 5 of the 7 runs. Freddie and Teo are slumping, Max is hitting well, and Kim keeps raking at over a .400 BA. Dreyer ran into some trouble, the long first batter with Vilade did not help his cause. Kersh with his 1st win this year, #213 in his career and 7 Ks give him 2983. Just 17 away from 3000. Mookie’s homer was the 290th of his career.
The Dodges benching Conforto and allowing Kim more at-bats is inevitable, so they should just do it…now.
Nice to see Kersh have a good game. His fastball sat mostly at 89-90 mph and twice hit 91. It is possible he could get another mph as he gets more stretched out.
For him at this point in his career, location is much more important. When he hits his spots, he is hard to hit. When he misses, it goes a long way.
One thing I failed to mention is how much I enjoyed the uniforms worn in the last two days of this series. I can’t say much for the Cardinals City Connect unis on Friday. I thought “The Lou” was where French people went to the bathroom.
But the iconic look of both teams the last 2 days, takes me back to my youth. I have always loved that 2 Cardinals in the Bat look and those clean looking St Louis uniforms. I especially like the cream color they wore Saturday. Those and the traditional, uncluttered Dodger Grays, look terrific. It takes me back to Koufax and Gibson days.
Now we may get those horseshit San Diego City Connect jobs that look like an explosion in a paint store.
Not many city connects that I like at all. The Dodgers new one is a lot better than the Los Doyers that they wore a couple of years ago. The Mets pinstripe grays are pretty cool, except for that purple in there. Colorado’s new ones are pretty colorful, but I preferred the one they wore last year that actually looks a lot like the license plates.
Angels just traded for Lamont Wade Jr. from the Giants. Cash going the other way.
I like the low risk for LAA.
Great to see Kershaw pitch well and get a win. We may not get too many more of those performances from him. But only one run with 7 Ks and 0 BB is very solid.
I enjoy each of his games now as his health and effectiveness are no longer guaranteed. Great outing from the greatest Dodger of all time!
Jarren Duran is an OF who could be traded this deadline unless Boston turns things around. San Diego seems to be the organization leading in the potential Duran Sweepstakes. However, Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer proposed a LAD trade package for Duran, including catcher Dalton Rushing, left-handed pitcher Jackson Ferris, and shortstop Emil Morales. Per the Trade Simulator the Dodger package would be 71.40 while Duran has a trade value of 62.50.
While I think there is zero chance that the Dodgers are looking to acquire Duran at the deadline, I do believe what Rymer has proposed is what they would ask for. That would be a BIG NO for me, and I like Duran.
It is rumored that Boston is looking for the Padres top two prospects, SS Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas. San Diego is not about to do that. They would trade one of the two, but the problem is that San Diego is devoid of other top prospects that hey could include.
FWIW, here is an article penned by JP Hoornstra on the subject:
Dodgers GM Says ‘We Should Be Pushing’ Minor Leaguers to Prevent Injuries: Report
Great stuff. Thanks for sharing this, Jeff.
Maybe less, isn’t more?
“Gomes acknowledged that he and Friedman are “far from having the answer” to keeping pitchers healthy from the minors to the majors. If nothing else, they’re committed to avoiding the definition of insanity: doing the same thing twice and expecting different results”
They don’t have a plan.