A lot of discussion on the impending CBA negotiation and the concept of a salary cap is gaining momentum. Of course MLBTR’s poll is more of a fan poll. However, one of the best and most respected journalists as it comes to the business of baseball is The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. He is well connected, and is reporting that many of the owners are now ardently pushing for a salary cap.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6005721/2024/12/19/mlb-lockout-2026-salary-cap/
Believe it or not, but a MLB salary cap has been an issue. Dont think it is a big issue between the Owners and MLBPA? A fight over a cap sat at the center of the ugly 1994-1995 strike, which lasted 232 days and led to a canceled World Series, and almost cost games in 2022.
IMO, if MLB/MLBPA agree to initiate a ceiling cap, then revenue sharing has to be eliminated. How many owners would be okay with LAD, NYM, NYY…spending north of $300MM every year as long as they get to keep their revenue sharing $$$, which they in turn refuse to spend on their team.
The concept will be brought up again in the next CBA negotiations, but MLBPA will absolutely say no. But, if any cap is implemented, and includes the elimination of revenue sharing, there will be too many owners who will say no as well.
Let’s continue with “what ifs”:
No penalty for teams signing a free agent.
No more Qualifying Offers.
Allow teams to trade their draft picks. They can trade their competitive balance picks now. Why not their regular draft picks?
Rules that could help MLB teams? With the increased interest in a 6-man rotation, and/or the continued management of pitchers’ innings, how about an increase in the MLB regular season roster to 27 or 28. Of course that would mean that teams would need to spend more on development, not to mention two additional players at MLB minimum on the roster. MLBPA would love this. Owners not so much.
Most of these changes are non-starters, but a change that some teams may be pushing for is a % cap on the amount of salary that can be deferred per player. What if MLBPA senses that this would change the Dodgers perspective on signing larger multi-year contracts? How eager do you think they will be the change the status quo. This could be one of those pesky compromise issues.
A salary floor has more of a chance to pass than a salary cap.
Maybe they change the rules so that posted foreign players are considered true free agents and can offer their services to the highest bidder, if that is what they want. To be honest, I do not see this as a serious problem. There are now two professional players that have come through the Amateur International rules process instead of total free agency: Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki. I do not think that there was the magnitude of concern with Ohtani as much as there was with Sasaki this year. I do not like rules that are made for such a small number of potential players. How many under 25 year old Japanese or Korean players are ready to play in the US?
Throw in the potential draft of the international free agents. The owners want this, but MLBPA does not. But after the last set of negotiations, they are not as adamant about saving the current system vs a draft. MLBPA would relent if MLB compromised on another issue.
Teams and MLBPA need to be negotiating now to get a skeleton of a deal before the next deadline. The game is thriving again, and it does not need a shutdown to slow the growth of interest. Hire negotiators who are more aligned with the growth and success of MLB baseball vs the extremes on both sides of the negotiations. Extremes do not compromise, and unless the sides are truly willing to compromise, there will be a work stoppage for 2027.
List of 2024 payrolls:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024/sort/cap_total2
The MLBPA is probably the strongest pro sports union. They will fight against a cap as they always have. At some point in time, salaries will peak. What I see coming sooner than later, is that the minimum MLB salary will reach at least 1 million dollars a year.
I did not include it, but the robot umps will be a discussion as well. Although the ASB system is schedule to be tested in 2025 ST games at 13 sites (including Camelback) and ready to be tentatively semi-resolved by 2026, or at least those are the plans. The players will have a lot to say about the challenge system before being implemented in full in 2026. I can see this as being one of those decisions that is postponed until the new CBA.
Anthony Santander signs a 5 year guaranteed $92.5MM contract, with > $35MM in deferrrals. It could grow to 6 years $110MM. I would rather have the Teoscar contract.
It was reported that LAD was in contact with Kirby Yates before the Tanner Scott deal, and there are some who believe that LAD still has interest in Yates.
The Cubs offered Scott 4 years and $66MM, no mention of deferrals. If $$$ was the only consideration, all the Cubs had to do was offer 4 years $72MM with no deferrals. But we all know that $$ is not the only consideration.
Is it true that Rojas gave his number 11 to Sasaki and will wear 72?
I’m already in shock. If they signed Kirby Yates also, I might never recover
Small market teams without multibillion dollar owners shouldn’t have both low draft picks and a salary cap.
A salary cap won’t reduce the price of tickets or Extra-Innings subscriptions, or parking.
Obviously athletics are unique, but I am usually against all types of salary constraints.
If anyone cares.
Also, per Ben Badler:
The Los Angeles Dodgers today signed leftthander Adrian Torres from Panama.
For some scouts, he’s the best LHP in the 2025 international class.
From the article Jeff posted above.
“We have now got billionaires buying teams in all sports. That’s what’s changing,” Boras said. “You’re going to have not one person buying it. You’re going to have multiple people, contingents buy it. … The prior generation of owners will receive massive wealth from that.
“It is a billionaire business. It is not a local, regional-shop business anymore, and that, I think, is the adaptation we have to look at. Not the rule structure of the game and how we work. We all know what cap systems have brought in other sports, and frankly, it’s not been particularly exciting.”
We all know what cap systems have brought in other sports and it’s not been particularly exciting? The NBA isn’t exciting? The NFL isn’t exciting? Up yours Bora$$. You and your billionaires, a pox on all your houses.
With Tony Clark’s statement- “we will never agree to a cap”, baseball has a tug of war going on between a handful of billionaires and a small group of organized millionaires with fans paying for all of it.
“For greed, all nature is too little”. Lucious Annaeus Seneca
I don’t know where all of this is going but I do know there’s a stench in the air. This is different. All of it.
As salary’s climb, the average fan will not be able to afford going to many games. Back in the day, I went 10-15 times a year because I could sit in the pavilion for a couple of dollars. Parking was a lot cheaper than too. It is much cheaper for me to pay the 100 dollars for the entire season, with a discount for being a veteran, than it is to even attend one game at Dodger Stadium. That is one reason that the last time I was out here during the season, rather than go to Dodger Stadium, we went to Rancho and watched the kids play. Just a ticket, parking, a beer and a couple dogs will run you 100 bucks. Far too rich for someone like me on a set income.
We’re signing Kirby Yates!
He was spectacular last yr but kind of unnoticed.
The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Disappointed in AF bring asleep at the wheel and missing out on Santander.
There’s a big trade brewing….
Who was it, a couple of years ago in the Dodgers’ front office, that said “We’re going to be pigs” in regard to signing top players? Maybe this is the year that fits that quote. Are they done now? Who Knows? Nothing surprises me any more.
Kopech had “forearm issues” during the post season but was given the go-ahead to pitch through it.
Not sure if that’s the same problem they’re referring to now and they just want to have him rest it for a while longer, something similar to what Glasnow went through last year.
Or………………………we could hear later today that Kopech will be having TJ. Not something the Dodgers would have likely shouted from the highest rooftop while trying to sign more relievers.
Was refreshing my memory with watching some Kirby Yates highlights. Sure looked good last year. Got one of the best splitters I’ve ever seen. How can one not think this is the best Dodger team ever, I sure think it is. If everyone stays healthy be hard not to repeat. I can’t wait to watch this team play. It’s going to be fun. The season can’t start soon enough for this kid
I’m trying to come up with a ballpark number on the amount of luxury tax we will owe at the end of 2025.
My problem is I don’t know if we will be taxed and a 50% rate, a 60% rate or 110% rate on the dollars over the Luxury Tax Threshold. And I can’t seem to find the answer online anywhere.
Maybe some of you guys more versed in this area can coach me up.
Being over the CBT threshold for 3 or more consecutive years puts
us in the 50% tax bracket.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $60 million or more: a 60% surcharge.
So were both taxes in effect that puts the Dodgers penalty at 110% of any payroll over $237 million in 2024?
Is that how we got to a $103 million tax bill?
I see tax numbers for the Dodgers in 2024 of $340 to $353 million.
So the luxury tax threshold for 2025 is $241 million. The Dodgers’ payroll is projected to surpass $375 million in 2025 or $134 million over the threshold.
So is that taxed at 50%, 60% or 110%?
This gets expensive in a hurry not that the Dodgers give a rat’s ass.
Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. I assume the Dodgers will be subject to this penalty as well?
Help
Sasaki cannot be signed until Thursday. With Yates being signed, someone will have to be cut from the 40-man. Grove seems like a likely candidate.