The NLCS is set. Dodgers’ vs the Mets. The series begins tomorrow at Dodger Stadium. Jack Flaherty will start for the Dodgers with Kodai Senga going for the Mets. Game time is 5:15 PST. The following post is a position-by-position breakdown taken from MLB.com and the Dodger web site.
Catcher: Both catchers, Will Smith and Francisco Alvarez had good first halves. Neither has done much in the playoffs. But Smith has more experience and gets a slight edge because of his ability to throw out runners. Smith overall is a better hitter. Barnes is a veteran backup and gets the nod over Torrens. Advantage: Dodgers
First Base: Pete Alonso has excellent power, he strikes out a lot, but he is a good defensive 1B. Freeman is a better hitter, and also an excellent defender. But with a bad ankle, Freeman is not playing at full strength. Muncy is more than adequate if he has to move to first. Slight Advantage: Mets
Second Base: Jose Iglesias has been slumping after a hot start. Jeff McNeil is still out with a fractured wrist, on the other hand, Gavin Lux got much better in the second half. They are neck and neck defensively. Advantage: Dodgers.
Shortstop: Lindor is one of the best SS in baseball. Miguel Rojas has been out with a bum hammy. Although not Lindor’s equal with a bat, he is excellent defensively. Tommy Edman, Rojas’s likely replacement, it a decent hitter and a pretty decent defender, but not in Lindor’s league. Advantage: Mets
Third Base: Vientos is the Mets third baseman. He and Max Muncy hit almost the same during the season, but Vientos has been hot in the playoffs, and Muncy has not. If Muncy has to move to first if Freeman is not ready to go, Kike or Taylor would replace Muncy. Both are good defensively, but not on Vientos level with the bat. Advantage: Mets
Left Field: Brandon Nimmo or Teo? Their careers started at the same time, and Nimmo has been more valuable most of those careers. But He had a bad second half. Hernandez on the other hand has had a career year. Advantage: Dodgers
Center Field: Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor are the Mets centerfielders. The Dodgers can play Kike, Edman, Pages or Taylor out there. Outman and Kiermaier were not on the NLDS roster. Maybe one of them makes it to the NLCS roster. Doesn’t matter. Advantage: Mets
Right Field: Mookie is clearly the better right fielder in this matchup. Starling Marte is not the player he once was now at the age of 35. Advantage: Dodgers
Designated Hitter: JD Martinez filled this role for the Dodgers last season. He is the Mets DH now. But the Dodgers replacement is MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani. Clearly the advantage goes to the Dodgers. Advantage: Dodgers
Starting pitching: The Dodgers starting staff has been banged up all season. Right now, the four starters for the NLCS would be Flaherty, Buehler, Knack and Yamamoto. The Mets are countering with Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana. Unlike the Dodgers, the Mets have had time to set up their rotation. It is not a great rotation, but it is a good one. Advantage: Mets
Bullpen: The Dodger bullpen has had some ups and downs this season and was particularly bad in July. But it has stabilized a lot since then and has become an absolute strength this postseason. Led by Treinen, Kopech, Phillips, Vesia, Banda and Hudson, the pen has been excellent. The Mets pen is not at deep, but there are a few good arms down there. Of course they have a great closer in Edwin Diaz. Advantage: Dodgers
Bench: Depending on the health of Freeman and Rojas, the Dodger bench does not pack much punch. The four players off of the bench would be Taylor, Kike, Pages and Barnes. The Mets have Acuna, Torrens, Winker, and Bader. Advantage: Mets
MLB is predicting the Mets in six. This is simply because the Mets have been on a roll in the playoffs and beat two teams who won their divisions. I think the series is going to go seven games. I also think the Dodgers will end up winning. Simply because they will have a chance to win the pennant at home.
Vesia has an intercostal strain and will miss the NLCS and Gonsolin may be an option per Roberts
Just read that. Honeywell could be an option also. Kelly and Graterol will not be on the roster. Stone to miss 2025.
Feel sorry for Stone. Kid was the corner stone of our rotation this season . Without him I do not know if we win the division with all the other injuries to our starters.
Dodgers have to look at their training staff , the way they handle their pitchers and maybe even the medical staff. but that is a discussion for the offseason.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Flaherty is going to have a very good series. He struggled with many of the Padres players, in his career not just the past series.
Flaherty was a pretty good pitcher for us, look for him to rebound fine. Dodgers should handle the Mets well tomorrow. Dodgers didn’t have to travel after Game 5, Mets had to fly across the country yesterday, should be an advantage for us.
Mets magic runs dry. Dodgers in 6
I fully disagree with that Mets in 6 thing. I think we crossed a HUGE October playoff hurdle by winning games 4 and 5 in the NLDS.
I think the Dodgers win this in 5; it won’t come back to LA.
I tend to agree with you Bobby. The key is to get quick leads here at home. This would take some pressure off the starters and allow them to go deeper in the game. If there wasn’t enough for the BP to deal with the loss of Vesia could add even more stress to the relievers. Curious to see who they replace Vesia with.
Yamamoto only pitching once hurts.
Dionysus, this could hurt good. 😉 This would make him available for a couple of starts in the WS against the Yankees!
my thoughts exactly. Yamamoto would be able to start Game 1 in LA and Game 5 at Yankee Stadium
Manny Ramirez is going to throw out the ceremonial 1st pitch for NLCS Game 1, and Shawn Green will I have the honor in Game 2.
Manny will get a thunderous ovation tonight!
Here are my thoughts about the potential NLCS roster:
Rojas obviously in a lot of pain(discomfort). Would leave him off the roster and replace him with either KK or Outman or in a bold move Rushing.
Vs LH starters I would go Mookie at 2b, Kike in CF and Pages in RF. That ist he absolute best lineup in that scenario.
And to keep in mind that FF likely will have to be replaced late in a game because of his injury will require Kike to go to 3b , needing CT3 to take over at CF.
On the pitching side Vesia appears to be out. The Mets have a heavy RH batter roster so that could lessen the loss of Vesia for the Dodgers. Who to replace him with ? The obvious choices are Honeywell and Wrobleski with both Kelly and Graterol out too.
Here is my thought what to do with the pitching side:
Bobby Miller pitched very well in his last outing at OKC mid September. Dodgers have had him throw since then to keep in shape. Henriquez got shelled in his one outing vs the Padres for 2HR and 3 runs in one inning.
I would roll the dice and replace Henriquez with Milller. Both guys have terrific stuff but if Miller is on right or even only on par with Henriquez in the trust circle then I go Miller. Stuff as I said is equal but if Milller is right he could give you some length out of the pen to in an ideal situation , be it only mop up duty. In a best case scenario he could be the Julio Urias 2.0 weapon from the WS 2020.
So I would replace Henriquez with Miller and Vesia with Honewell.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The big key for me is Mets starting pitching verses our lineup. I think we can do some damage against them.
It doesn’t look to me like the back end of the 26 are great options but the games will be won or lost by the front end of the 26.
The best scenario has our starting lineup in every game going forward and that lineup will have backups in it. As for the bullpen, whoever replaces Vesia will not be as good as Vesia. I suspect we will see a lot more of Banda. Casparius, Wrobleski, Gonsolin, and Henriquez? Choose.
I like your Miller addition for this series. It could be a chance for him to end the season doing something positive even in relief. And, of course, help the team get to the WS. Honeywell seems like a good addition as well. The Mets have only three starting batters who bat lefthanded. But, the offense has to be productive and consistent. Make the BP less depended on.
I will be an exciting series and a good watch for Dodger fans.
Rushing? Seriously? Kid hasn’t had an at bat in weeks. He is probably not even in Los Angeles. He might be at the complex in Arizona, but most likely he has gone home. And the only way they could get him on the roster is if he replaced an injured player and they would need the commissioner’s offices approval to do that. Isn’t happening.
Good rundown on the matchups, Bear.
While my son and I will be rooting for the Dodgers, two of his friends that we see every day are big Mets fans. Adds to the fun…
Bummer to learn that Stone will be out for ’25 recovering from shoulder surgery. It just didn’t seem that it would require that–and he’d be in the mix in the spring. Now he’ll be recuperating along with River Ryan and the others.
It’s kind of stupefying to realize that the Dodgers are so thin with starters now because a full six-man rotation is recuperating from injury. Maybe an 8-man rotation…. While there are some hints that Gonsolin could still return this postseason, that seems hard to believe.
On a positive note, Zyhir Hope reportedly hit a 470-HR in the Arizona Fall League. He might be the best OF prospect in the organization.
I saw a video of the homer. It was legit. Had that sound when it left the bat. On a positive note, Gonzo and May will both be back. Ohtani, Glasnow, Miller, Yamamoto, Knack, Wrobleski and whoever they target this winter. Kersh has an option, but he is a long way from making his decision. I believe they almost HAVE to sign at least two free agent starters. One top of the line and another to stash at AAA for emergencies. There will be a bunch on the free agent market.
This was supposed to be a primary post but Bear beat me to the publish button.😍
———————
After the year that Dave Roberts had this year, he might be very deserving of an extension. Does he make mistakes? Absolutely. We all do. He and Brett Boone probably have the two most stressful jobs in sports. They are under the spotlight more and have more scrutiny than other MLB managers. Other than Miami’s Skip Schumaker, no MLB manager suffered as many lost SP due to injury than did Doc.
I cannot count the number of comments that were calling the Dodgers dead in July, and not without reason. The two best teams in the second half in MLB were in their own division (San Diego and Arizona), and they were not letting the Dodgers pull away as they had in previous years. LAD was 8.5 games up on July 23, and the lead got down to 2.0 on August 17. The Dodgers lead vacillated from 2.0 to 6.0 until the end of the regular season.
Doc needed to navigate 17 different starting pitchers during the season. Only 6 were openers. That is 11 different true SP. The Dodgers started the season with Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and Bill Paxton as the starting 5. For the NLDS only Yamamoto remained, and that was after missing nearly three months with a strained rotator cuff.
Doc continued to pitch Walker Buehler even though Walker struggled mightily. Buehler’s last two games gave a small opening of a glimpse of Big Game Buehler. He does not dominate, and he gets in trouble when he thinks he can. But Doc cajoled him in his final regular season start when Buehler wanted to go back out. Doc had not gone out to the mound without taking out the pitcher this year. In Game 3, he went out in the 5th inning and after talking with Buehler, he let him stay in, and was rewarded.
Roberts said he was hoping for 4.0 innings out of Yamamoto in Game 5 and then turning it over to the bullpen. But he was ready to pull the trigger for a full bullpen game if warranted. He did not have to. He got 5.0 innings out of Yamamoto.
After his Game 1 meltdown, I wrote that in the 2023 Japan Series, Yamamoto was pummeled in Game 1, but came back in a must win Game 6 and dominated with a 14 K 138 pitch complete game. I thought he was more than capable of doing so again in NLDS Game 5, and he did so. Not the strikeouts (only 2), but 5.0 scoreless innings with 2 singles and 1 BB. Only one Padre runner reached 2nd.
Now the Dodgers are on to the NLCS for the 6th time in the 10 year AF era. They have won the NL Pennant three times in the previous 5 opportunities, and the eventual NL Pennant winner in the other 2 won the WS: 2016 Cubs and 2021 Braves.
Like Doc, I recognize AF is a favorite scapegoat for the LAD playoff losses. But 6 times in the NLCS in 10 years is pretty good. Houston reached the ALCS 7 consecutive seasons (2017-2023). The Cubs reached the NLCS three times (2015-2017), the Mets, Braves, and Phillies twice, and Nationals, Cardinals, Padres, Dbacks, and Brewers just 1 time.
Both Doc and AF deserved some blame for the years they did not make it to the NLCS, but we fans have been spoiled with the recent success. To put this in a bit of perspective, in the previous 46 years of the NLCS (1969-2014), the Dodgers reached the NLCS just 9 times with 5 pennant winners. Three NLCS appearances (2008, 2019, 2013) but no pennants from 1989 to 2016. That is 28 years between pennant winners.
Besides Houston’s 7 ALCS appearances, NYY has now made it 4 times in the last 10 years. KC, Toronto, and Boston reached the ALCS twice each. Tampa Bay, Texas , and Cleveland one time each.
We know Alex Vesia is out but still unsure on Miggy Ro. I do expect CT3 to make the roster, and if Miggy can PH I expect he will be there as well. I do not expect to see Rojas in the field in the NLCS.
The Mets look to be this year’s version of the 2022 Phillies and 2023 Dbacks. Hopefully their Cinderella story will end in the NLCS.
Three of the four Championship Series contestants were division champions, and all three had the bye. Only the Phillies did not persevere.
Interesting history lesson.
Clearly the pitching is the question mark. The exclamation point is the sticks. 1 through 6. They hit, we win. They don’t we won’t.
It’s as simple as that Badger.
Nice review of Roberts and AF’s playoff history. So far, Roberts and the players have done their jobs when called upon (in many cases). No matter Roberts decisions, if the players fail to do something positive then it’s all for not.
Good stuff , JD…
James Paxton…though I’m sure the spirit of Bill could’ve help this depleted staff down the stretch; I’ve heard Bill (RIP) has as good a “ghost” fork as Senga…
The Padres deployed their lefties out of the pen for the Dodgers, though Shildt really only trusted Scott and Morejon. For the Mets, two lefties most likely will start games and Peterson has been solid as a long man…. I’m looking forward to these key matchups….
cheers…
I checked to see if you had anything in the que! Sorry, it only took about 10 minutes to write up. I did it after the USC-Penn State game. Oregon took down Ohio State. Made me smile.
Bear, how much longer before you fire Riley?
If USC has proved anything, it is that they rarely have a ton of intensity in the second half unless they go into the half behind. They are playing better competition than they had in the Pac-12 except for teams like Washington and Oregon. Luckily for them they only have 2 top 25 teams left on their schedule. Nebraska and Notre Dame. I doubt Riley will get fired unless they really tank the rest of their games. The defense is much better than last years for sure.
😥
You crying because of what Oregon did to Ohio State??
Yes.
If Cleveland and the Dodgers make it to the World Series, it would be the first time the two have faced off in 104 years in a World Series. Cleveland beat Brooklyn in 1920. That World Series featured the unassisted triple play by Cleveland second baseman, Bill Wambsganss.
Great article.
For some reason this resonated with me:
“Like Doc, I recognize AF is a favorite scapegoat for the LAD playoff losses. But 6 times in the NLCS in 10 years is pretty good.”
This is true! Scapegoats were literally goats used in Biblical times! Symbolically a community would “put” their sins onto this poor animal and either kill it or exile it.
We’re more advanced and enlightened now.
We don’t need singular scapegoats. Especially for complicated multi-variable outcomes!
Casparius, Honeywell, and Kiermaier on the NLCS roster.
I guess MIggyRo is still injured.
Kiermaier will be in tight games at the end as a defensive replacement in CF. With the Mets starting two lefties, Quintana and Manaea, Pages is going to get a couple of starts. Me, I shift Mookie to second, put Kike in center and Pages in right for those games. Lux does not hit lefties all that well even though he homered off of Morejon in game 4.
I like those moves Bear. Lux can pinch hit later if they need him.
Me too.
I predict Outman will be this series MVP.
This assumes he gets an at bat of course.
Not on the roster.
Unbelievable. Padres Profar still talking trash after heading home for the winter. He gave zero credit to the Dodger pitching staff. He said it was all on the offense. Poor baby! 😂
Well, he’s not wrong. The Dodgers pitching did shut ‘em down.
Yeah, but he would have been better off just keeping his mouth shut.
Seriously? You really think he can shut up?
Seriously? No, just like I think Tatis Jr. is pretty much the same way.
good Andy McCullough article on the success Padres’ pitchers had with Ohtani and if the Mets can replicate:
($$$$)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5839176/2024/10/13/mets-dodgers-shohei-ohtani/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mlbtw&source=mlbtw
….Rival evaluators believe pitchers can disarm Ohtani by firing fastballs up and in. That is considered a hole Ohtani has not yet closed. Yet reaching that location can be perilous. Misses can leak over the plate, in the sort of spot where Ohtani can send them into orbit. Facing Ohtani, Scott did not miss. He pumped fastballs for strikes and eventually lured him out of the strike zone with high-90s heat….
YOu could see OHtani starting to press as the series went along, his swing zone increased dramatically as he pressed for hits. He has to get back to taking some balls and not be such an eager batter.
Funny shit from Profar.
His last K in game 5 was awful. That pitch was at least 12 inches outside of the zone and up. He no doubt has been studying tape since then. And I am sure DR has had the talk with him about staying focused and in the zone.
Smoltz kept insisting you get Ohtani out low and away. I think he can cover that assuming it’s a strike and he’s not swing at the rosin bag. His hole to me is up and in. Seen it all season.
Phil, I think Smoltz believed Ohtani will chase low and away. Just do not make it close to the plate. The up and in is also a toogh pitch for Ohtani, but he can get on top of it if it leaks over the plate. His one HR in the NLDS was a 97 MPH 4-seamer above the zone but not enough inside. Still a 97 MPH 4-seamer should get more swing and miss than HR from most hitters. Ohtani is not most hitters, so the high and in, better be in.
High and tight low and away. That’s been a successful strategy for over a hundred years. My advice to Ohtani? Simple. Don’t chase. Take the walk. Leave up an in alone. It’s probably not a strike anyway. If you have to swing at something away to protect the plate, barrel it the other way.
With Kike now looking like the starting CF and Kiermaier as his defensive backup, Dodgers and Mets in CF are a push. McNeil had a bad season, but he is another lefty in the Mets lineup, so that makes second base a push too. Still think LA wins in six.
Dodgers in four.
Also, found this interesting:
Roberts noted that Ohtani idolized Darvish in his youth. It was possible, the manager said, that added a layer of nerves to Ohtani’s at-bats. That dynamic will not exist against the Mets.
“So suffice to say,” Roberts said, “I’m happy that we’ve rid ourselves of Yu Darvish and we can sort of move forward.”
Mets haven’t seen Flaherty and Dodgers haven’t seen Senga. Going to be an interesting game. Senga has only pitched 7.1 innings all year and he pitched just 2 in his only postseason start. My guess this is a bullpen game for the Mets.
I think it’s interesting that I was talking about the mental aspect of the game vs the padres. People were snickering. Now, that is all Kiké is talking about. A strategy he employed is visualizing himself doing well in the games the night before. And here u have Robert’s trying to promote the Dodgers as underdogs in this series. We aren’t but if he can sell that to the team it changes the whole approach. When we were going for game four and eventually winning game 5. What did Muncy say? You guys didn’t think we could win. 80percent thought we were going to lose. They had flipped the script from favorites to we have nothing to lose because everyone thinks we will lose. If u said game 4 would be 8-0 I would have said the padres would have won. The padres were expecting that win and never recovered. A big loss losing Vesia and a healthy Rojas. Everyone knows what Linder can do, Alonso u can get out if u make your pitches, Nimmo is a tough out and will make u throw strikes, vientos has been their hot bat, jd great hitter looking for revenge(slider,slider,slider) the rest can hurt you but have to be controlled. 2 pitchers I wanted the Dodgers to go after were Manae n Quintana I’m hoping they fade.
Ten, my happiest moment in years was watching a dejected Tatis Jr. sitting in the dugout watching the Dodgers celebrate on the field. As much as I totally dislike the Padres as a whole, and Machado more than most, he at least has shown some maturity, and he did rally his team in the dugout. Tatis Jr., despite his natural talent, is just not a likeable guy. I am not sweating Alonso. Dude has lousy numbers in his career against LA. I understand Eric does not think that a players prior history makes any difference, but I disagree with that. I believe it can get into your head. Players who have had good experience against certain teams thrive in those moment. Like Utley when the Dodgers played the Mets. The more the fans in NY taunted him, the better he played. I would not let Lindor beat us.
Dodgers starting lineup vs Senga. Ohtani DH, Betts RF, Freeman 1B, Teo LF, Muncy 3B, Smith C, Kike CF, Lux 2B, Edman SS, Flaherty P.
I might be wrong but senga did pitch against us last year. He struck out 7 in 5 I believe. Of course we didn’t have Ohtani.
July 15, 2023 in NY. 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HR (Mookie). Dodgers got to the bullpen and won the game.
Thanks,
well I was somewhat close. I actually watched that game. What a memory lol
their pitching is definitely solid. We need some guys to step up.
He is not the same pitcher right now. Only 7 innings all year going into this start.
I am stoked to watch the Boys in Blue. I hope they have learned something and will get Mr. October in the lineup every game (he can play every where, so let him play. Give him enuff at bats and he will produce. Hopefully we can get Mookie and Ohtani to catch fire and have a great series (Mookie really only had one good game against the Padres and Ohtani had basically two good games, or 1.5 good games). Time for the bright lights to bring out the best in our high-paid stars.
Go Dodgers
Spoiler Alert: Flaherty should have a very good start tonight, he’s due.
This is classic:
Lolz!!!
Here we go!! Everyone enjoy the anticipation and excitement!!
Carry on.
Playing free and easy!
I thought we wanted fiery and intense?!?!?!??
3 innings ate up by Flaherty before the great bullpen with a 3 run lead. The Dodgers are in a good place. I would not be afraid to go with the bullpen starting with the 5th inning not only because of the great bullpen, but because Flaherty is prone to giving up home runs. Now if the Dodgers score a few runs right now then that’s a different subject.
Two Mets on base. Danger.
Breathing room.
Dodgers playing some small ball.
So refreshing to see
Two sac bunts in one game! Haven’t seen that since the days of Maury Wills and Jim Gilliam.
Chase rate overvalued?
The Dodgers through 5 innings tonight:
Saw 85 pitches
Swung at a total of 6 out of the strike zone.
Was that an inning’s worth of chases by the Phillies against the Mets?
longest scoreless IP streaks, single postseason:
1966 BAL: 33 (WS G1-4)
2024 LAD: 31 *active thru T7 (NLDS G3-pres.)
1974 OAK: 30 (ALCS G1-4)
1905 NYG: 28 (WS G2-5)
I think Lux came up a bit lame running to 1B on the ground out.
I think this game is in the bag for the Dodgers.
Flaherty only four guys allowed on base in seven innings. That’s good.
Good? How about GREAT!
GREAT 👍🏻
Playing free and easy. Even Taylor put a ball in play!
Taylor made contact!
This really is the Dodgers’ night!
If Casparius pitches 4 ninth innings, then I really like our chances!
When you’re hot, you’re hot
Wow — let’s keep on rolling!
Big win!!
Dodgers on fire!! I tell u why. Roberts 2 sacrifices n scored both times. Taylor put the bat on the ball!! Lux injured? He wouldn’t play tomorrow anyway. They said precautionary but for the Dodgers that means 60 day il.
Roberts making all the right moves.
Betts needed that for confidence and also to burn the Mets for walking Ohtani.
Only one game but u got to win 1 b4 u can win 4.
Great job Flaherty!!
If the Dodgers get above average starting pitching in the playoffs, they’re gonna be hard to beat.Good starting pitching unstoppable.