Blake Snell has reportedly agreed to a five-year-182-million-dollar deal. For those of us who never thought AF would deal with Boras, let alone sign one of his players to a long-term deal, this is a total surprise and goes completely against AF’s MO. So, what does this say about how LA approaches filling the other obvious holes in the lineup. For one thing it is very obvious that money is not going to be a problem. But the one big difference between Snell and Fried. Fried has a QO attached to him, so if LA signed him they lose prospect capital and 1 mil in international pool money. Burnes has no QO, but he is going to get at least a 7-year deal. Not sure AF is down with that. 
Reconstructing the bullpen has begun, it remains to be seen if they can get Treinen to come back. Kershaw will sign sometime next spring when he has some sort of timetable for him to be able to pitch again. Adding Snell gives them a left-handed ace. The six man could be Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Miller, Knack, or Gonsolin, May, or Sheehan, who should be back at some point. Of course, they can still try and sign Sasaki. Trust AF to load up on arms after what happened this year.
The Dodgers strike first bagging one of the big three free agent pitchers. They could still try to re-sign Buehler, but I think Flaherty is off of the table. Needs are still at SS, LF, RF, and a power bat off of the bench. I think Pages, Rushing and Outman are at this point nothing better than platoon pieces. I do not trust any of them to be an everyday player. Would like to hear all opinions on this move and what LA might do going forward. 
Totally unexpected. AF had us all in the dark.
Dodgers were said to be in on Snell for some time now. Last offseason, at the trade deadline and now in this offseason. So , no, this came not as a surprise.
Great move though. Snell is a power pitching ace from the LH side where the Dodgers had an obvvious need.
As I said in the previous blog: Make it a triple S. signing by bringing in Sasaki and Soto.
If Soto wants to win the Dodgers are THE team to sign with if you are looking at the next 3-5 years.
there has been some talk the Dodgers would give him a 3-4 year contract with a very high AAV so he can hit free agency again at age 30. Or a longer contract with opt outs for him. Many possibilites to make it work IF Soto WANTS to come to LA.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I doubt he does that. It is said Boras is looking for 15 years, 700 million. That won’t happen in LA. And it might not have been a surprise to you, but to everyone else, it is a stunner.
just listen to some of the bloggers and Dodgers youtube channells and you will find out it is not a surprise to EVERYONE. That might be your impression.
As I said Snell was on the Dodgers radar for some time and even the time of his signing is not totally out of the blue since he made it clear he does not want to wait as long as last offseason again.
And we will soon find out what Soto is on to.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He went totally against what he has done since he came to the Dodgers. The ONLY pitchers who got 5-year deals were Jansen, and then Glasnow last year. He had never signed a Boras client to a deal of more than one year. Most of the rumors I have read did not mention the Dodgers. But that’s ok, it is not my money. As for Soto, LA has supposedly already made an offer, but I am taking Cohen at his word when he said the Mets will outbid any team by 50 million. Soto won’t come to LA unless AF goes totally off script. It isn’t the money as much as the fact that Soto has a QO attached to him. Which means if LA were to sign him, they lose prospects and international signing money, which they want to have a lot of so they can sign Sasaki. Pitching is more important to them right now than bats. Soto at 15 years, 700 plus, doubtful.
Perhaps AF will work a trade of some of our young talent for more international signing money.
It is possible.
Not true at all.
What is not true?
There was plenty of chatter, connecting the Dodgers to Snell.
Never saw it, my bad
Bear started the post, so I will include what I was planning on writing in this one.
I had a post ready to go, but then the Blake Snell to LAD for 5 years and $182MM was reported, and my post became yesterday’s news. Oh well. I need to adapt.
Top LHSP prospect Jackson Ferris has been comped to Blake Snell at similar ages. MLB Pipeline wrote in his scouting report:
Now he has Blake Snell as a mentor.
Next week, right before the Winter Meetings, Blake will turn 32 (December 4). His contract will take him through his age 36 season. The crying of fans of other teams is laughable, telling everyone who wants to listen that the Dodgers are destroying MLB. Every team in MLB could have signed Ohtani last year with the deferrals. The Dodgers are reaping a huge return on their investment, and I am not just talking about baseball return. Ohtani wanted to play for LAD. He should not be allowed to sign with LAD because John Fisher (A’s), Richard Montfort (Rockies), Bob Nutting (Pirates), three of the worst owners in MLB, look for revenue sharing for themselves before spending to put a competitive team on the field? The Dodgers invest in their team and are rewarded with the great TV deal and nearly 4 million fans in attendance every year.
2 of the top 4 and 3 out of the top 20 jersey sales are Dodgers (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman).
They don’t just invest in personnel, but their analytics (nerds) department is second to none. They have elite development tools and teachers. They put together the best possible organization to win a WS championship every year.
The Dodgers draft late every year, and since the International bonus pools have been in place, the Dodgers are near the bottom in bonus $$$ for IFA every year. And yet they continue to win. It is not because of FA. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and now Blake Snell are the only FA signed by LAD. Muncy and Brasier are considered free agents, but they were really waiver wire pickups as they were released by their former teams.
These bitter jealous fans are calling for a salary cap, which will never happen. Upset fans want MLB to be as “competitive” for championships as are NFL, NBA, and NHL. Funny, but MLB is the only League that does not have a salary cap and still has the most different championship winners since 2000.
It sure appears that MLB is the most competitive.
Teams could have signed Snell this year with the deferrals. They choose not to. Is it going to pay out baseball wise? Probably not. But there could be more revenues because of continued playoff baseball and hopefully deeper playoff baseball.
Blake Snell is the top of the rotation LHSP LAD has not had since Clayton Kershaw and his glory days. Snell is a west coast guy, being born and raised in Seattle, WA. He was drafted in the first round (52nd overall) in 2011, out of high school by Andrew Friedman and Tampa Bay.
Snell pitched 5 years for Tampa Bay before he was traded to San Diego for C Blake Hunt, RHP Cole Wilcox, C Francisco Mejia and RHP Luis Patino on December 29, 2020. He was kryptonite for LAD in the 2020 World Series. And if manager Kevin Cash did not overthink/overanalyze the situation, the results for Game 6 could have been different.
Snell became a free agent after the 2023 season and signed with SFG late in 2024 Spring Training as one of the Scott Boras 4 that went very bad for $cott. Snell chose to opt out of the final year of his 2 year contract and become a free agent again for 2025. No qualifying offer, so LAD does not lose draft picks or $1MM IFA bonus $$$.
He signed with LAD for 5 years $182MM with significant deferrals. It is reported that his AAV will be in the $32MM range. That is right where he was predicted to sign for. MLBTR had him signing for 5 years and $160MM ($32MM AAV). Steve Adams was the only MLBTR writer who predicted the Dodgers.
Snell has been a pitcher near the elite level in results for most of his career. He is a 2-time CY winner and has two ERA titles, both 2018 and 2023. In 211 starts and 1,096.2 IP his career ERA is 3.19. His FIP is in the same ball park at 3.35. He averages 11.2 K/9. His one negative point is his walks at 4.1BB/9. His career ERA + is 128.
Snell is not a work horse, but he certainly holds his own. His last 4 years are 128.2 IP, 128.0 IP, 180.0 IP and 104.0 IP. That averages 135 IP. His 2024 total was down primarily due to the late and ineffective start to the season. The Dodgers are not looking for 180. They will be happy with 140-150-160 IP. He could be a natural fit for a 6-man rotation.
I have no idea what type of personality or club house guy he is. But I trust AF knows.
One other point that I am extremely pleased with is that LAD will not have to face Blake Snell for at least the next five years. He has owned the Dodgers over the course of his career. 14 games started, 68.2 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 86 K, 31 BB, and 6 HR.
Snell now gives LAD a rotation of:
How about that playoff rotation of Yamamoto/Snell/Glasnow/Ohtani. On paper, there is not a better playoff rotation. And that is for at least the next 4 years.
Like Bluto, I whiffed on Snell. He is the first $cott Boras client AF has signed for more than 1 year. He signed for 5 years when the previous AF would have balked at anything above 3 years.
Where does AF/BG turn next? Do they add an OF or SS? Do they add another SP. The RP will come. Right now I am happy with Blake Snell.
AF has changed his business policy the last 2 years.I wander what changed his vision or ability to spend money now.
I agree. I would like to see Teo back, especially if they opt to have Edman play CF most of the time and sign say Adames to play SS. I don’t see Pages, Outman or Rushing as everyday players.
With Snell on board that very likely takes a trade for Crochet off the board for good.
Would turn to Robert jun now. Outman, Fiduccia/Cartaya, Freeland, Knack/Wrobleski ?
Would open a few needed spots on the 40 men plus bring in a great CF with pop on a cheap contract.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is a ridiculous price for a player who can’t stay on the field. Screw the fact he has a team friendly contract. He has played over 100 games exactly twice in his five-year career. He barely made it to 100 games last year. AF is not dumb enough to pay that much for a player when his value is at it’s lowest.
It is a 4 for one swap and IMHO it would be a pretty fair deal. Dodgers have never been afraid to deal for players with high upside who have been plagued by injuries before (Glasnow being the latest).
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Won’t happen. Not a snowballs chance in hell. Bellinger has better odds of coming back than them trading for Robert Jr. No guarantees that brittle dude might get a hangnail and miss half a year. Glasnow did not cost them 4 players. It was a 2-2 swap. Last time they sent multiple prospects to a team was when they traded for Scherzer and Turner.
You should be a little more careful with snowballs in hell when it comes to the Dodgers signing or trading for big names who come with some injury concners. 😀
You are talking like that regularly only to be proven wrong.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!
Look Ram, if I am wrong, I will freely admit it, and I always have. But in this case, not a chance. He’s not coming to LA in a trade this winter. No way. Sox are asking way too much for damaged goods. AF would be off his rocker making a trade like that. Snowballs last a long time in Colorado. As a matter of fact, it is snowing right now. If Chicago moves him at all, it will be at the deadline and only after he proves he is healthy. Most analysts do think that Crochet will be traded at the winter meetings.
I’m with u Bear.I wouldn’t give too much for Robert Jr.But I know we need outfield help.I hope Rushing and Pages pan out.we have to get Teo back.
There’s a small town in Norway, called Hell. Snowballs last a long time there.
Thanks Sam! 😅
As Blake Snell was in a hurry to sign this off-season, I think AF wanted to make sure he got an ace lefty ASAP. The White Sox seemed to want what AF didn’t want to give up, so AF said “F”-it, I’m just going to go get Snell and keep all my guys. You never know, perhaps the White Sox will come to realize they should have taken AF up on his offer and come back to him offering Crochet at AF’s price. Maybe we get 2 ace lefties this off-season, or maybe we don’t! Would that cause a wrinkle?
You can bet trading for Crochet, another over-rated player who has exactly 32 career starts under his belt. Dude had a sub .500 record. Yeah, he struck out a bunch of guys, but why trade all of those kids for a maybe. It isn’t happening unless AF has more than a few screws loose.
Snell – a great signing! It is wonderfult to have a deep pockets ownership group like Guggenheim who are all in to win! I read the Dodgers have five $100M+ contracts – the rest of baseball has five too! As an international investment firm, I have to believe that Guggenhiem is attracting a lot of Pacific Rim investors as it it grows its Dodger Pacific Rim profile. Imagine growing you core business at the same time you are growing the revenue base of one of your major investments! It is a business model every professional sports ownership group will be trying to emulate. It is a wonderful time to be a Dodger fan! Go Guggenheim Partners…
Signing Ohtani was genius, and it is already paying dividends. Just wait until next March when they open the season in Tokyo against the Cubs. They are also going to play 2 exhibition games against Japanese pro teams.
A sub .500 record… pitching for a historically bad team.
I have no problem trading players who don’t figure much into the Dodgers’ near- or long-term plans–depth–for a potential ace who is 26 years old.
But with Snell’s arrival, the odds of Crochet happening are now very
slim.
Snagging a free agent mostly just requires $$. Both Teo and Adames are possible at this point. (Even Soto, theoretically.)
But if ran the Dodgers, I’d also be looking to the trade market, hoping to package Lux with other expendable depth pieces to upgrade the roster. The Dodgers are so strong, however, that there seem to be few players on the trade market who might be considered upgrades.
Two are Crochet and Robert.
Another is Devin Williams.
Great signing by AF and BG. The Dodgers will continue to acquire new talent and they are not done yet. Soon we should read about Teo signing (hopefully) and a trade or two to add to the BP (Lux for Devin Williams).
Great time to be a Dodger fan. Terrific ownership, the best developmental team in baseball, great analytics and a manager/coaching staff that knows how to build team cohesion.
Run it back!
It will take more than Lux to pry Williams away from the Brewers.
This is why we should never be too enamored with all the rumors.
Despite what Ram said, this signing came out of nowhere. There wasn’t even a rumor that they were talking.
In Rams defense, Heyman came out a couple of days ago with report the the Dodgers were very interested in Snell, but like you bear, I didn’t pay much attention to it due to the Boras connection. Boras has only ever used the Dodgers to drive up prices for his clients before this, so Ram in that aspect it was a surprise for many of us.
looking back on this now, BG said they were going to be looking at top end pitchers, they had a need for a lefty SP, and Snell had no draft pick compensation attached to him, which I think was a big part of this. AF has made an offer to Soto, kicked the tires on Adames, my guess is he doesn’t want to give up anymore draft pick compensation than he has to. So the signs were there some of just didn’t think it could happen.
Yeah, one reason I am beginning to think they won’t sign Adames. Edman can play SS most of the time. Outfielders are a dime a dozen. I think they get down to the nitty gritty with Teo and see what it will take for him to come back. I do not trust an outfield of Rushing, Outman and Pages.
I think AF may be willing to sign one Draft Compensated FA, Is it Soto, I don’t think we will be the highest bidder, so I doubt it he picks us. I’m still hoping they’ll sign Adames, and Teoscar. Nobody knows what AF is doing, he and BG probably have fifty different scenarios they are juggling.
I don’t think Soto is coming to LA.
Soto money can be better spent on 3 or 4 players. Teo, Treinen, Buehler, Adames, Kike, etc…
Does the Snell acquisition take Buehler off the table for the Dodgers???
I hope not, but it definitely tells us Flaherty won’t be back.
IMHO no.
Closes the door on Fried and Burnes, but not on WB and Sasaki.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Yankees are hot after Flaherty and Walker according to the rumor mill. I think Walker coming back is a long shot at best, Flaherty has no chance now.
I am not very optimistic about resigning Buehler. I hope they bring him back. Could be our closer. 😅
Buehler raised his value tremendously in the postseason. He should have some nice offers.
And Flaherty should have better offers.
Sasaki seems more like to be a Dodger that those guys.
I think the Dodgers still need one more pitcher if they are going to a six man rotation, with all of the injuries and question marks on the staff, a person could make the case for two more. So other than Burns and Fried, I don’t think any pitcher is off the table at this moment.
Starter market has plenty of arms. Buehler might be back, but Flaherty is going to get at least a five-year deal, and I don’t think AF goes that route with another starter. I think they really want to see if they can sign Sasaki. Besides, Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani, they have Gonsolin, Knack, Wrobleski, Frasso, Miller, May and Sheehan as starters on the roster. Fried has a QO, Burnes is going to get a lot of years. Stone, Ryan and Hurt will be back in 26. And Kershaw will be back too, maybe around May.
Agree with Bear & Jeff 100%. Some outlets are saying the Snell signing takes Flaherty, Buehler, & Teo off the table. Baloney! I still see Teo as a significant need for a weak outfield. Rumors are that Soto has eliminated the Dodgers. No surprise there, especially with them lowballing him on years. Typical AF move when he’s fishing for someone he really doesn’t want to invest too many years in; like he did with Harper.
Agree, they would pay him a higher AAV for a short period and allow him to enter the free agent market again in 4 years. Same strategy they used with Harper. Soto’s defense is mediocre. Yeah, he gets on base, but he doesn’t steal much, and he still is a bit too cocky for me.
if A guy is on our team he’s confident, if he’s on the Padres, Giants, or Yankees, he’s cocky😀
Well, I will admit, I just really do not like the guy. All that crap he did while he was with the Padres, he has a lot of talent, that I will admit. I just do not really believe they would spend another 700 million on a player.
It’s always about projected WINS. I believe the Dodgers have their own analytics team doing just that – projecting Wins over the next 5 years for every player they are serious about.
We only have the projecting sites available by a search. I use what is printed at fangraphs. There is no way of knowing what a 32-36, year old obviously past his prime Snell will produce in the way of Wins but as I pointed out yesterday projecting that contract out I see no way he averages 4.4 WAR over that stretch, but Dodger geeks apparently do. And maybe they are just looking at the next 2-3 years, I don’t know. They believe he will help win another championship and that is all that matters.
Soto is a 6-7 WAR offensive player in his prime that will likely produce those numbers for at least another 5 years. Nobody past 26 is going to be productive for 13 years. It isn’t about that. It’s about the NOW. What can these guys do this year. And after that the NOW in algorithms may be only 3 years. Wish I knew. I don’t.
I was hoping for Snell’s signing by AF. Without the QO attached and a reasonable amount of years, Snell had to be AF’s main target in the premium starter market. But, to see him signed for five years at $36M per was shocking to me. But, he does fit the Dodger profile for a starting pitcher. That is pretty much a less than 120 innings a year, five inning outings, and frequent trips to the IL. But, he’s power LH pitcher! Happy to have him. It’s not my money. But, it makes no sense to me. Not that makes any difference.
I’ve written in the past about the decrease in innings expected from a starting pitcher and more reliance on the bullpen to get through a game. My reasoning was that you could reduce the salaries of starters because less was expected from them with most pitching 4-6 innings. Sure, you had a half dozen or so that could give you a healthy 200+ innings a year and would be paid accordingly. But, for a 5-6 inning pitcher, a $25M max salary would be expected. Well, this was, obviously, flawed thinking.
Snell has been in MLB for nine years. Two years (2018 and 2023) were Cy Young years where he pitched 180+ innings with a record of 21-5 and 14-5 respectfully. His other seven years he was a below .500 pitcher, averaging 105 innings a year, and with many trips to the IL. Two good years out of nine. An average WAR of 1.5 in the seven non CY years. How that justifies a 5 year/$181M contract for a 32 year old is interesting to say the least. But, again, not my money. The market is the market. Maybe, AF and Guggenheim are pushing the market up to put other teams in financial stress.
Anyway, welcome to LA and the Dodgers Blake Snell! Please, stay healthy.
Carry on.
Snell has only had two IL stints due to an arm injury, and both were short term. July 22 to Sept 27, 2019 – elbow. July 23 to Aug 4, 2018 – shoulder. He was on the IL twice last year: groin and hip. Can’t say for sure, but methinks that the lack of a true ST and trying to come back too soon could have played into that. Maybe not.
You can never predict what pitcher is going to get hurt. In 2023, MLB had 35.3% pitchers having TJ surgery. I think I read the percentage will be north of 37% after 2024. On the current 40 man roster for LAD, there are 23 pitchers counting Ohtani. 16 of them have had TJ surgery at some point in their career, 6 while with LAD. This does not count the number of shoulder surgeries throughout MLB and LAD.
I do not believe the Dodgers expect a LAD SP to go 180 innings anymore. More like 130-150. It is not a $182MM deal. With the deferred $$$, the present value is $160MM to $165MM. Agreed still to high to justify financially. But if you value winning more than justifying contracts on WAR, it makes perfect sense. And I think that is what the Dodgers are doing. A window stays open for only so long. Granted the Dodgers window has been open longet than most, but why stop now. Take advantage of Mookie and Freddie while they can. The playoff gate receipts that LAD retained is about $30MM, plus parking and concessions. That is a big bite out of a $300MM payroll. The Ohtani contract gives the Dodgers a big advantage to sign more top players. That is why Ohtani did what he did by deferring $680MM. They made money on Ohtani alone last year with the increase in partnership deals with Japanese companies.
The Dodgers have been smart and have set them up to go deep into the playoffs, now and for several more years. If their A level prospects develop as many think they might, some of them will be in a position to take over in 3-4 years and to continue the dynasty.
The most surprising thing is how close to top of the market the Dodgers spent. Not this probably changes given deferment and how the market plays out, but I’m still surprised.
Still think there is zero chance for Crochet, Adames and Soto. Even less for a Robert Jr trade unless way under market.
but a great start
Sign Teoscar and Max Kepler to play rightfield and decide which of those three to keep as platoon outfielder I say yiu go with Rushing more pop in his bat then yiu have Pages and Outman in the minors if anyone get hurt. Kepler is a scrapper like Kiermier was but huts pretty well they also need to decide if they bring back Keke I sure like him better then Taylor and Barnes on the bench. You could have Rushing Keke Barnes Rojas Taylor as your bench and teoscar edman Kepler as the starters in the outfield oh and they have to get Adames at shortstop then Muncy at 3b Betts at 2b Freeman at 1b and Smith catcher. That’s a pretty good starting nine and ohtani as dh. And improved bench.
Kepler had a sub .700 OPS last year. His career OPS is below .750.Rushing has played less than 30 games as an outfielder, so you have no idea how good or bad he can be out there. Barnes is going nowhere. Unless they trade Taylor, Kike is not coming back.
Okay tell me a outfielder other the Soto that has started in rightfield or leftfield that you could put out there almost every day. Let’s see when I read twins lineups Kepler played almost every day. Maybe a mitch haniger Michael Conforto or a Jesse Winker but u said u can’t see rushing outman and Pages be the three starters I can’t either. If I wanted a decent ball player I would say a one year for Jesse Winker he would be perfect in left field and put Teoscar in rightfield.
Playing every day is one thing, doing it at a high level like Teo did is another. BA is not king anymore, OPS is. That is why the Dodgers hold on to Max Muncy. His career OPS is .826, and on the plus side, his defense has improved. Okay, let’s look at Winker. Career OPS is .804. That is good, he is durable, played 145 games between DC and the Mets. Left-handed hitter with decent power, 14 homers. Doesn’t strike out a lot, 106 in 430 at bats. Better than average defender in left. All good things. At 31 years old, he is probably looking for more than just a one-year deal. But to play with a championship team, he might do that. He would be ok. Salary wise, 10 mil or so might do it. Hard no on Haniger, who is primarily a RF. He has missed a lot of time due to injuries the last couple of years. And he is almost 34. OPS under .800 for his career and he has not come close to matching his numbers from 21. Michael Conforto is the same age as Winker. Has the same career OPS as Winker, more power than Winker, strikes out just a little more, and has played left and right. Has been injured some over the last few years. Problem with Conforto is he has not come close to putting up the numbers he did in 17-18-19. Decent defender, but doubtful he would take just one year. Rushing is a catcher-1B who is learning left field. He turns 24 while LA is in spring training. He has played all of 31 total games in the outfield. All at AAA. Not a lot of experience at the position. LA would be bonkers to put him out there every day without a little more experience. Good hitter, but is that going to translate to the majors? I believe they will opt for a more experienced player. Teo? Hopefully, they resign him, and he could take over right. Pages might be an everyday player sometime, but he is going to have to improve his splits a bunch. He killed lefties, .357 but was mediocre .213 against RH. He is a better defender as a corner outfielder. Outman, if you had the 23 version, would be fine in CF. But he has to prove he can hit MLB pitching again. Also, I like Edman better as a utility guy, not the everyday SS or CF, but that is just me. They could trade for a CF, or even a RF. If they do not sign Adames, not looking very possible right now, they can trade for a SS or just use a combo of players like they did this year, Miggy, Edman and Taylor are all excellent defenders at SS. 2b is going to be Mookie. Lux will likely get moved, maybe for an outfielder, or more likely some form of pitching help. There are currently 35 outfielders who are free agents. Among them names like Bader, Canha, Santander, Jimenez, and many others. LA can kick the tires on all of them and see what fits. But they need some youth on a team that has little. One that intrigues me a lot is Dylan Carlson, the former Cardinal. He was non-tendered. The attraction? 26-year-old switch hitting pure CF. If playing every day, he could have decent power, hit 18 homers in 21. Excellent defender has decent speed. I think our hitting coaches might help him get a lot better.
Some nice takes on the Blake Snell signing. I agree with Ram. There were plenty of rumors tying Snell to LAD. If the Dodgers had not signed Yamamoto, I do think they would have been a favorite to sign Snell last year. AF drafted Snell, and has always been enamored with him. They wanted him at the deadline, but there was no way SFG was going to trade him to LAD. But it was still a surprise to me that it happened.
Steve Adams, MLBTR, did predict LAD would sign Snell, and the MLBTR prediction was 5 years $160MM. With the present value of the deferred $$$, the contract is believed to fall between $160MM and $165MM. They got that one darn close.
Not as many predictions, but a lot of noise linking Snell to LAD.
I was pessimistic because Snell is a $cott Boras client, and was seeking 5 years. Come on, that is not the Dodgers. Something changed last year in the LAD operating plan.
I think this came together quickly by design. The Dodgers wanted a top of the rotation LHSP, and looking back at comments, they may have wanted this to happen early. Everything else will now come into focus because their #1 need has been satisfied.
Snell wanted to make sure there was not a repeat of last year, so he too wanted to sign early. It was a perfect match.
I do not think it is a surprise that the first two top FA off the market were a most coveted player…LHSP. Both pitchers signed for just about what MLBTR predicted.
As I said above, I agree with Badger. It is going to take a 20 fWAR to justify this contract financially. Not going to happen. Then why did they go against their SOP? I also agree with Badger that this is a now moment. The Dodgers want to win now, and they are now willing to overpay for that increased opportunity. The Dodgers seem to have learned that the further they go into the playoffs the more revenue they generate. The team retains 40% of the gate receipts for the guaranteed playoff games. The team retained about $30MM, and it would have been more if either of the NLCS or WS came back to LA. The Dodgers would have retained 100% of the gate receipts for games 6 and 7 in both series. For a team with $300MM payroll, that 10% of the total payroll, all because they went to the WS. Then add on additional parking and concessions…
That is also incentive to gain the home field advantage as 2 of the last 3 games of a 7 game series would be at the home of the team with that best record, and they would retain 100% of those receipts.
Winners beside LAD, Snell, and Boras? – Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and maybe Sean Manaea.
What shocked me was the timing, though perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the big-spending Dodgers essentially stepped forward to set the market.
Juan Toribio of MLB.com reported that the brass had identified Snell as their prime target, ahead of Burnes and Fried.
Certainly the Dodgers don’t need any more pitchers–especially if Sasaki is likely to come. Miller is top-tier if he gets his confidence back. I would love to see Buehler back, but I suspect he’ll get better offers elsewhere. He and Flaherty earned their rings and should get nice contracts on their next adventure.
I have a feeling that AF might take a flyer on Patrick Sandoval, who was released by the Angels and recently underwent TJ surgery. He was really good before his injury and won’t play in ’25. He could join Stone and River Ryan in the rehab room until ’26. Remember: AF signed Kahnle knowing a full season would pass before he would pitch.
I’ve often thought the Dodgers have so many quality arms that they could deal some to make upgrades elsewhere. What do guys like Stone and Ryan think when the Dodgers load up with Snell and possibly Sasaki? Will there be spots for them?
But then the post-season approaches and the Dodgers are throwing bullpen games…
Using guys already under contract, here’s a six-man rotation:
Snell
Ohtani
Glasnow
Yamamoto
Gonsolin
Miller
Knack and May are in the wings. And Frasso! When will we see him? (Count me in the May-to-bullpen camp.)
If Sasaki joins the Dodgers, maybe we should pencil him into Shohei’s spot, given the talk that he will be slow-played back into pitching. Miller, if he isn’t dealt, should get some leash to get his confidence back.
The Dodgers might be able to pitch Yamamoto and Sasaki in the Tokyo openers, while Shohei is a DH. The Japanese fans will go bonkers.
It’s nice to root for the Dodgers.
I do think something has shifted, and I’m not sure it’s entirely financial tolerance.
I think it’s indicative of something that’s been going on for quite a while but it largely unaddressed, organizational depth.
That is the rising baseline of position players and pitchers. Basically the Dodgers organization is full of above average players. And because Dodger replacements are so high-level that it’s hard for the team to improve unless it’s via a high-impact player.
Look at all the positions/pitching slots that don’t have a “superstar”: RF, LF, Catcher, or 2B/SS. To improve on those players the team needs better than a player with an OPS+ of 102 in his first year (Pages) or a career OPS+ of 124 (Smith at Catcher), or a player coming off major surgery and still reached an OPS+ of 101 (Lux).
Similarly at pitcher unless the player is better than Miller/Knack/May/Gonsolin then why would the Dodgers acquire them?
In the Pen it’s full of above average arms both in the majors or in the minors (Dreyer, Vanasco, Lao, Heubeck, Gowdy)
Does this give us a ton of ammo to send our above average minor leaguers for an established stud?
Theoretically and potentially, yes.
That’s why an “overpay” for an established stud is OK. And perhaps AF could overpay for a hot prospect once in awhile. (Just wondering. Who was the last prospect acquired in a trade that went on to make an impact with the Dodgers?)
At any rate, the goal isn’t to “win the deal.” (It’s just silly to say the Dodgers “won” the Busch deal when Ferris and Hope may still be far from the majors.)
The goal is to win the World Series.
I agree with your premise, but I am not sure what established stud requiring an overpay is available. San Diego has been the poster child for this transaction: Soto, Darvish, Musgrove, Hader, Musgrove, Cease, and I know I am missing some. But that has not yet got the Padres to the WS. NYY may have overpaid for Soto, and while they did get to the WS, they did not win it, and will now probably lose him.
Mets traded top prospect Pete-Crow-Armstrong to Cubs for Javy Baez and Trevor Williams, but that did not help the Mets.
We cannot judge the Michael Busch trade yet. But the return to the Dodgers was their #4 (Zyhir Hope) and #5 (Jackson Ferris) prospects. While they have not yet made a significant impression, I do like their chances, especially Ferris. Ferris turns 21 in January and he could make his MLB debut this year, and could be in the rotation discussion for 2026. Hope does not turn 20 until January. He is not Jackson Chourio, but it is conceivable that he makes his debut by the time he is 22.
Which established stud are you advocating an overpay for. I do not believe that Luis Robert Jr. is that established stud.
The Dodgers have more organizational depth at a good but not elite level than any team in MLB. They have to rely on that depth for injury purposes and to package for trades with superior talent.
As far as your relievers go, Vanasco was traded for cash to Detroit last year. Sauryn Lao and Kevin Gowdy became MiLB free agents and left LAD after the World Series. Heubeck is still considered a starter, but I agree with you that he will probably end up in the pen. And I do agree that the Dodgers have a bunch of above average arms in MiLB. Other than River Ryan, Gavin Stone, and Emmet Sheehan, the only other pitcher that is considered to be a top of the rotation pitcher for LAD is LHSP Jackson Ferris. Hopefully Wrobleski and Frasso can join that list this year, but probably more back end.
Thanks! It was a half-baked idea, but I feel better about it now.
As per the above idea of packaging prospects for a better one. It’s great in theory, but it’s never, ever happened. Why? No clue.
I remember I asked Glaser once and he said it was due to the variance in prospects.
What about Buehler? Do they let him walk? I would love to see him return, but even without him they have an almost embarassment of riches in terms of starting pitching (assuming everyone stays healthy)
I say repeat LA though.
I too would love to see Butane return. Just not sure how high he is on their priority list.
This makes sense to me.
Bluto- this makes sense to me. It also makes me feel like if I was a young position player buried in AAA I would know that I’m likely to never play for the Dodgers.
This is largely irrelevant. As a prospect you get the best (BEST)in batting/pitching development, and you and invariably get to play in major league baseball just not with the Dodgers.
Plus, prospects are confident to say the least. So I’m sure most believe they can crack the lineup regardless of the high standards there in.
Blake Snell posted this before the trade was announced.
Between the extra $ for the WS win and the huge amount of extra $ they’re bringing in from Ohtani, AF and friends are dealing from a whole different deck than all the other teams.
So, let’s say the Big 6 to start next year are Ohtani (maybe a month late), Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Gonsolin and one of Buehler/Sasaki/Eovaldi/Severino/Bieber/Manaea/Miller/Knack
That leaves the following starters in the minors, all of whom will be ready to start in the majors either this year or sometime in 2026: Sheehan, Stone, Wrobleski, Ferris, Frasso, Casparius and whichever of Knack/Miller doesn’t make the rotation this year or possibly both of neither makes it. They control Catman for 2 more years, Glasnow for 4 and Snell/Ohtani/YY for 5 or more. When are the young guys going to get a shot?
I think they need to package a couple of our good young pitchers along with a position player (Lux) or two and go after either a young shortstop like Abrams (buyer beware since his maturity level is lagging behind his playing skills) or a really good young outfielder who can play center field. I doubt the Red Sox would move Duran but it wouldn’t hurt to ask. They need pitching and their best prospect (top 3 in all of baseball) is a guy who can play center, Roman Anthony. So they have a replacement for Duran or maybe they’d consider trading Anthony for the right package.
After we get a shortstop or CF in trade, we have Edman cover the other position.
I’ve come to the conclusion the AF won’t be high bidder for Adames. If he is, that negates everything above but we still have to do something about all those young pitchers who can’t be kept at OKC forever.
Hmmmm, I’m starting to sound like Bradley, but with better spelling.
Boston is not saying no to Duran. It will take a lot, but the Dodgers have a lot.
Maybe this opens up a door to talk with Cincinnati about Matt McLain. He is a plus fielder at SS and was #5 in ROY for 2023. Elly De La Cruz is probably not moving off SS. McLain is slated for 2B for Cincy. Maybe Lux and pitching can get Cincinnati to move McLain.
McLain is now my favorite SS target.
I still like Abrams, and I am not as concerned with his immaturity, One, I think he learned, and two, Washington does not have a Mookie Betts to mentor the kids.
I agree that AF signing Willy Adames seems to be fleeting. After Snell signing with LAD, I do not think Buster Posey lets Adames get away. He needs a big name for SF, and Adames seems to be Posey’s target. Boston and Atlanta will be deep in the bidding for him as well. NYY wants him as a 3B, as do Houston, Philadelphia, and Boston. I am surprised that San Diego is not in on another SS.
Sign Buehler to be our closer. 😉
I see May as a potential closer.
Can never have enough high leverage bullpen guys.
Let’s go a tad deeper on this Snell signing. He received a $52MM signing bonus. How much of that came from the teams increased playoff revenues? That left $26MM per year remaining, but $13MM of that is deferred. So his cash contract for the next five years is $13MM. How is this not a good deal for LAD?
Maybe that is it for large signing bonuses for this year. But now Ohtani and Snell have $15MM combined salaries for the next five years.
If this means it was an under-value contract, I’m going back to my priors!
I think it is more of a smart use of playoff revenue and deferred $$$. I think that does make it an undervalued contract.
Hah! Nice comeback, Bluto.
Jeff, do you think there is any chance the Red Sox would consider trading Duran or Anthony for some of our MLB ready good young pitching?
Or can you think of another young centerfielder or shortstop that we could get?
I don’t care how many injuries our starters go through, we can’t keep all those young pitchers at OKC forever.
call Seattle and see what J-Rod costs.
I just responded to yours. I do think Boston could trade Duran, not so sure about Anthony. As long as Trevor Story is sticking at SS, the Red Sox need an improvement over David Hamilton at 2B. Thus Lux is a potential. The Dodgers do have enough young pitching to make a deal work, but will they? They can’t keep them all. Rentals like Gonsolin and May are not going to move the needle, but Bobby Miller could as a start. After AF hosed Boston with getting Mookie, I am not so sure that Boston wants to tangle with AF.
Matt McLain is now my favorite SS target. I know the Dodgers can make a package that Cincinnati would like, but will AF? Lux and pitching?
The CF I have always wanted is Pete Crow-Armstrong. But he is as untouchable as you can get.
I do think Duran and McLain could be traded. But that could just be wishful thinking. Come on bring both Duran and McLain home.
Darkhorse rental is Kyle Tucker, but that is RF.
Thanks for the response. This is the kind of conversation I come here for. Your knowledge fills in the blanks where my interest meets my lack of knowledge. So thanks again.
And, by the way, I’d be more than happy with any of the names you mentioned and I’d be willing to include any one of our young pitchers to get it done.
Happy Thanksgiving Jeff!
Dodger fans have a lot to be thankful for this year!
Another world championship and a roster built to win a WS every year. Of course, postseason baseball is susceptible to upsets and random outcomes, but the Dodgers will likely be the preseason World Series favorite for the next 5-10 years.
I don’t agree with some of Jeff’s math on the Snell contract, but I haven’t seen all contract details including the timing of deferral payments. But in simple terms, the Dodgers are front loading the $52 million signing bonus and deferring $65 million or $13 million per year to later years. For some reason, it appears the luxury tax rules give a benefit for deferring salary but don’t increase AAV for frontloading bonuses. The Dodgers are great at navigating the AAV rules, and creating win-win situations. Snell will likely avoid CA state income tax on the $65 million deferrals and the $52 million bonus. But only a few teams will pay a $52 million bonus upfront, especially after paying Yamamoto a $50 million upfront bonus and paying a $51 million posting fee in 2024. The Dodger AAV payroll was the highest in MLB at roughly $330 million this year and that excluded the $51 million posting fee paid out for Yoshi. The Dodgers have clear financial advantages over every MLB team with the possible exception of the Yankees or Mets. And the Dodger front office is probably the best in baseball. A great formula for continued success!
Jeff, you said “Something changed last year in the LAD operating plan”.
I think the big thing is the Ohtani contract. Ohtani made a huge concession in deferring most of his money. This puts the onus on the Dodgers to honor that commitment and most likely move them out of their normal comfort zone.
Totally agree. Ohtani changed the LAD landscape.
I’m thinking that just as important as the commitment to Ohtani to use the money he deferred to build a stronger team was the vast amount of extra $$$ he put in the team’s bank account by adding the entire country of Japan to the Dodger fanbase. Not sure we’ll ever know how much that was/will be worth, but I bet it exceeds our wildest imagination.
I want to wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving. I will be leaving for California Monday morning. There probably won’t be much baseball news until after the holiday weekend. I did read a little while ago that if any evidence is found, MLB is willing to investigate the Dodgers about tampering with Sasaki. This was said by Manfred.
Okay, maybe I was the only one totally shocked by this deal. But what would really shock me is if LA dumped 700 million more on Juan Soto. Yes, he is the best bat on the market. He is just 26 and entering his prime years. He has some holes in his game, his defense being one of them. But I still think the Mets are the odds-on favorites to sign him. I see the Dodgers bringing Teo back. He really wants to be there and he is a positive force in the clubhouse.
Bear, at your age, you can’t afford all these shocks to your system, so I’ve talked to Andrew and he’s agreed not to sign Soto.
Happy Thanksgiving and safe travels.
Thanks Blue, best to you and your family. Yeah, don’t need many shocks to screw everything up.
Happy thanksgiving Bear hope you have a great visit here in California.
Thanks Keith. Besides visiting with family, I will take a drive up to Lancaster to visit with my best friend Gary’s widow.
Ive been advocating for the Dodgers to sign Snell for the last two years now, and finally they did. A+ work Friedman. Im thinking dynasty here.
I’m so hyped they got Snell!
For the Dodgers right now —
It’s Good To Be The King!
After reading the opposing thoughts and opinions about whether the Snell signing was somewhat predictable or something out of character for Friedman, I couldn’t help but wonder why anybody thinks they know Friedman enough to make a strong argument either way.
He has made large offers to several players who chose to take a different offer. Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper come to mind. Friedman has probably made offers we don’t know about as well.as trade offers we don’t know about.
He has signed inexpensive players and players with histories of injury. He has sign expensive players.Yes, it’s been awhile since he has signed a Boris client but Boris has the majority of players teams want and to exclude Boris clients excludes the best free agents. Also, Boris will do what his clients want him to do.
What is it about Snell that makes him such a surprise?
Why Boris not Boras?
Not speaking for everyone, but the surprise is not the player nor really Boras. But more about what Boras represents in the market.
The surprise is that the Dodgers paid term AND top dollar (although it looks more and more like they may not have.)
When they pursued Bryce Harper it was with a very short-term deal. When they signed Freeman it was below market, when they traded for Betts they paid below market compensation.
Does “moving Mookie back to the infield” mean that he is definitely playing 2B or could he give SS another shot and keep Lux at 2nd. Mookie loves a challenge. Or they could give Lux another chance at SS and watch the water purifying czar blow a gasket!
😃 LOL
I doubt he goes back to SS. He said it was maybe the most challenging thing he has had to do in baseball. 2nd makes the most sense since he was signed as a second baseman. Lux is right now persona non grata. Man without a position and prime trade bait. Yes, if they did move Lux to SS, he who shall not be named would implode.
Happy Thanksgiving Jeff, Bear, and all my fellow Chroniclers.
Thanks Ohio. Wish you and yours a great Turkey day.
Per Heyman
The Yankees have upped their offer to Soto
Might have to up it some more.
If he wants the money he signs with the Mets. If he wants to win he signs with the Yankees. That’s the way I see it.
Yanks have some holes in their rotation. They need more than just Soto.
If he really, really wants to win it all, he signs with the Dodgers
Happy thanksgiving everyone