If the Dodgers do indeed go to a 6-man rotation, that would leave them with 7 in the bullpen, at least initially. Shohei needs to pitch 20 innings before he regains two-way player status.
Effective with the 2020 season, “two-way player” became an official MLB roster classification. A player qualifies for two-way player once he reaches the following statistical milestones in either the current or the immediately previous season:
-
At least 20 MLB innings pitched.
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Appearing in at least 20 MLB games as a position player or designated hitter, with at least 3 plate appearances in each of the 20 games.
If the Dodgers stick with their 6-man rotation, the Dodgers bullpen is currently:
- Blake Treinen
- Alex Vesia
- Anthony Banda
- Michael Kopech
- Evan Phillips
- Ryan Brasier
Pick One:
- Dustin May?
- Edgardo Henriquez?
- Michael Grove?
- Jack Dreyer?
- Giovanny Gallegos?
Once Ohtani reaches 20 IP, the Dodgers can move up to 8 relievers.
Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Evan Phillips, and Ryan Brasier were all waiver wire pickups, non-tendered, or just released. IMO, AF may have found his next relief proclamation project in Giovanny Gallegos, former closer with St. Louis.
That is the basis for a very good bullpen with multiple late inning high leverage relievers on the roster. If we assume Dustin May is going to be the #7 in the pen, the seven relievers combined salary will be between $31MM and $32MM.
May could also be in the rotation, at least initially. Others not mentioned above who could move into the rotation or into the pen…Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack, Ben Casparius.
This also assumes that the six-man rotation projects to be Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Miller, Gonsolin, Knack. Ohtani and Kershaw will be rotated in when they return to pitching. I do not believe AF/BG tabs Emmet Sheehan for the rotation unless it is needed,
The Dodgers are already at $335.4MM Luxury Tax Payroll (per Cots) with a corresponding $79.3MM in projected tax. That is $414.7 projected payroll cost before Teoscar and Clayton Kershaw.
Tanner Scott is projected at 4 years $56MM ($14MM AAV). The Dodgers have agreed to a free agent contract for more than 3 years once…Kenley Jansen. Jansen was a $16MM AAV for 5 years. If the projected 7 relievers have a combined salary between $31MM and $32MM, I do not see AF spending another $14MM just for Scott.
When I say I do not think AF will commit $56MM for one reliever, that does not mean that I do not want Scott. He would be a fantastic addition. It is just not where AF spends his $$. Maybe AF fools me this year.
Tanner Scott is not the only high end reliever the Dodgers could be interested in. Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, and Emmanuel Clase have all been rumored to be available. The Dodgers could put packages together for one of those. However, Helsley and Williams are one year rentals, and will probably be held on to until the deadline when the prospect price goes up.
Another one year rental who appears to be available is Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks.
Again, AF is not fond of trading top prospects for relievers. I cannot remember the last time he did. Michael Kopech AND Tommy Edman cost the Dodgers Miguel Vargas, plus lower tier prospects (non-top 30) INF Alexander Albertus, and INF Jeral Perez. The Dodgers also got a promising RHP, Oliver Gonzalez. He pitched well as a 17 year old in the DSL.
Another traded for LAD reliever is Alex Vesia. He and RHP Kyle Hurt were traded by Miami to LAD for reliever RHRP Dylan Floro.
Brusdar Graterol was also picked up via trade from Minnesota, but the primary lead in that trade was not a prospect…Kenta Maeda. Catcher Jair Camargo went to Minnesota and OF Luke Raley came to LAD in that deal as well. Camargo was never a prospect.
That is how AF trades for relievers.
IMO, AF is more likely to sign one of the following relievers on a one year deal.
- Paul Sewald
- Kirby Yates
- Spencer Turnbull
- Michael Soroka
- AJ Minter
- Jakob Junis
- Andrew Kittredge
- David Robertson
It is just my opinion, and it is one based on AF’s tendencies. I will not be upset one iota if AF signs Tanner Scott. I just do not expect it.
One final thought on this…the Dodgers need Teoscar Hernández more than Tanner Scott. So if they are going to spend, spend it on Teoscar.
Per Ken Rosenthal, both NYY teams are two of the most aggressive teams looking to trade for Garrett Crochet. NYM has better prospects to offer, including middle infield prospects Luisangel Acuña, Jett Williams (top 100 prospect), and Ronny Mauricio. NYY could offer OF Spencer Jones and SS George Lombard Jr.
That figures. We beat both NY teams, they are no doubt pissed about that and will do whatever it takes to see that it doesn’t happen again. The Mets just added a few wins with Soto. Enough to get home field? Maybe. Especially if we don’t improve up the middle, sign Teo and improve the pitching a bit more. AF knows it. I expect all that to happen.
I’ve read that the Orioles are pursuing Crochet. They’ll need a new ace to replace n Burns.
Orioles have a top-rated farm system and aren’t big spenders on FAs. The club became allergic after the big contract for Glenn Davis turned into one of the worst FA investments ever.
Mets expected to bring back Manaea. Padres manager is very optimistic about landing Sasaki.
Fully agree that the Dodgers should prioritize Teo, not Tanner Scott.
But I’d be OK with both.
Miller when physically healthy and mentally strong could be that Ace that replaces Burns and does it for pennies at a comparative cost. Given Glasnow’s glass arm, the Dodgers might not want to trade Miller unless they sign Roki.
Jackson Holliday has been used by the Orioles at second in his age 21 year and struggled. Is he a sure thing?
Here is his scouting report?
Just trying to float his name into the ether.
I thought Holliday was untouchable. But last year there was a crack that indicated that Holliday could be moved for the right price. Highly improbable, but possible. IMO, Baltimore is not going to move him. He was 20 last year. If he was with the Dodgers he would have been at A+ (maybe). Heck, Kellon Lindsey didn’t even play last year. I hope he starts at Rancho as a 19 year old and bypasses rookie league.
As good as Matt Holliday was, and as good as Jackson will be, they are not the best of the Holliday clan. Whoever wins the draft lottery tonight will be selecting Ethan Holliday out of Stillwater, OK. as their first pick. Ethan is another SS who also plays 3B and projects to have the power to play 3B.
Holliday is, yes, highly improbable…
But how about Jordan Westburg?
Also unlikely… but it never hurts to ask.
Orioles have a lot of young talent. Some not-so-young.
Right now, I think the Dodgers need to address the outfield, especially if Teo is moving on.
So how about Orioles’ CF Cedric Mullins?
At 5-9, 175 pounds, he’s kind of a poor man’s Mookie. Solid hitter–career OPS of .745–and sometimes spectacular fielder. Reputation as a clutch performer. Now 30 and coming off a sub-par season… in which he stole 34 bases.
My post-Teo druthers starts with Luis Robert Jr, but I can understand why the White Sox might want to keep him and would drive an extremely hard bargain–but the Dodgers are certainly able to “overpay.” I hear no real buzz that Santander would be a fallback for Teo, perhaps because he’d command a similar contract.
So maybe Mullins…
What would it cost?
I want to keep Bobby Miller, at least for now. So how about Knack + Outman? Maybe Wrobleski. Something like that.
Mullins would be a solid option, I think. He’d take over CF, and with Edman moving into more of a UT role, including Lux’s platoon partner.
Or perhaps Edman takes over 2B full-time when Lux gets packaged for Devin Williams….
Good thoughts. I have brought up Jordan Westburg multiple times over the last couple of years. He is not as improbable as Jackson Holliday, but it would be a shocker if Baltimore considered it.
I have never read any chatter on Anthony Santander as a possible LAD FA signing. Not only would he have similar salary requirements, but the Dodgers would lose their 2nd and 5th highest draft picks, plus $1MM in International Free Agent bonus pool $$$.
I like the idea of Cedric Mullins. He is a steady if an unspectacular player. He would fit right in with LAD as a solid citizen and a plus clubhouse guy. The devil’s advocate in me, without James McCann, Cedric is probably their needed clubhouse veteran leader. They are a very young team and need veteran leadership.
The Dodgers have two potential head cases, Bobby Miller and James Outman. Do both resolve their head issues this winter? I agree that Miller has the potential to be a front end rotation pitcher. I do not like trading LHP like Justin Wrobleski. I know, personal preference.
I think Lux in a trade for Devin Williams makes too much sense.
You mean Bobby Miller to replace Burns?
Perhaps we can cook up a Dodgers-Orioles deal here…
Tyler Glasnow, who missed the final seven weeks of the regular season and all of October with an elbow sprain, is throwing, Gomes told reporters in Dallas. From Cary Osborne at Dodgers Insider:
We will find out in ST how that elbow really is. Fingers crossed.
On Tanner Scott: We all saw what a lockdown bullpen can do for a team in the postseason. Can not have enough of those high leverage guys and Scott is lights out especially vs LHH. Plus if he is on the Dodgers Shohei will not havve to face him. 😀
IMHO he would be more than worth of a 4 year 56 million contract.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!1
And he may very well cost more than 4 years $56MM. The Dodgers are approaching and will surpass $350MM closer to $400MM. Every deal they sign now, double the cost this year and for at least next year.
With only 9 players under contract for 2026, the Dodgers are already over the CBT threshold. With only 8 players under contract for 2027, the Dodgers are under the threshold by $11.6MM. That is a reclamation project pitcher to get to 9 playerws and reach the CBT threshold. For 2028 the Dodgers have 7 players under contract and are $14.6MM beneath the threshold. 2025-2028, the Dodgers will exceed $310MM. Anything above $301MM (2025), $304MM (2026), $307MM (2027), and $310MM (2028) will be taxed at the 110% tax, and that is under the current CBA.
How high of a payroll is too much? Every team has a budget. I know the “It’s not my money” mantra. My MLB.TV subscription is going to increase. Advertisements increases will trickle down to the consumer. MLB is going to more streaming, and those are not free. Merchandise costs have skyrocketed.
Another penalty for teams that exceed $40MM over the CBT threshold, their 1st round pick drops 10 slots. That happened for 2022 and 2023. They were just under the $40MM tier so they did not lose 10 slots for 2024. They will lose 10 slots this year and next year. It is hard to find that elite draft pick when picking #36 (2022) and #40 (2023). After winning the WS, LAD will pick #40.
The current CBA runs out after 2026. The 110% tax rate was included and is AKA the Steve Cohen tax. What will the owners insist on as a penalty for the Dodgers? Especially with as liberal they are with the deferrals.
I have a finance brain, so I do think of budgets. I was responsible for one for more than 40 years. Last year, LAD had a $351MM AAV and were taxed another $102MM. They are going to surpass that this year. Just how long can they sustain that level of payroll?
With most starters only going 5-6 innings it seems like they need a long reliever in the bullpen. Who might that be? Knack? May? Casparius? Gonsolin? A new pitcher?
Sounds like Knack, Casparius or Grove.
Six starters going five innings would need maybe five long relievers, no?
At least one that can go multiple innings.
They will be using the same amount of starters they usually do. I’ll guess 17 again. Every starter on that roster is going to need a summer vacation.
Where’s Bear? Haven’t seen him post in the comments in a few days.
He’s in California on vacation
Hibernating.
This hospital is not for hibernating
Get out of there!
Well that sucks, hope you get better fast.
Per Morosi:
Multiple MLB team execs tell me prices for FA pitchers are high, and relatively few clubs are willing to pay them.
This creates incentives for *contenders* to listen to trade offers on their starting pitchers.
Framber Valdez is one. Dylan Cease is another.
Hi guys. I am actually in Harbor General Hospital in Carson. I had emergency surgery on my ankle. I have gout and an infection in there too
Bear, you take care of yourself. Keeping good thoughts and prayers for you,
Sorry to hear that Bear gout is a bitch. take care goodluck.
Get well, Bear.
Remember: Writing essays about the Dodgers is a key to recovery.
Hope you get well quickly Bear and also hope you are in network.
Maybe you could write a Post on your favorite Jell-O’s. Too soon?
Cherry, orange, strawberry,
In my semi-decadent youth I stumbled into the old Atomic Cafe in LA’s Little Tokyo past midnight. The sight of Jello on the menu sent me happily down memory lane to the junior high cafeteria.
This was the 1980s and the waitress was uber-punk.
“What flavors?” I asked.
“Red and green,” she replied.
Hope for a speedy recovery.
Gesh Bear. So sorry to hear about your surgery. I had a feeling when you mentioned your issue with the ankle on your drive to LA and then recent absence from LADC that a hospital stay may have happened. Any timeframe before you can get out?
Take care of yourself. I’m about an hour north of you. If there’s anything I can do to help let me know.
Thanks, Ted, appreciate it.
Get well soon
I looked it up: gout doesn’t kill bears. You’ll be fine.
Just eat some berries and raw salmon and you’ll be your old self in no time.
Raw salmon? I’d be willing to bet a large chunk of money that this Bear is not a sushi fan.
Get better soon, Bear………….and tell them to cook your salmon.
Are you talking Spoto money or Muncy money
Hang in there Bear. Hope your up and about very soon.
So sorry Bear.will keep you in my prayers.
Get well soon, Bear!
We miss you here.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh man, Bear, sorry to hear about your ankle. What a bummer. My thoughts and prayers are with you. Get that infection under control.
Missing your articles, mi Amigo.
Praying for a speedy recovery.
Hoping and praying for 🙏🏻 for a speedy recovery, Bear.
Per Ken Rosenthal, the next elite pitcher, Max Fried, is expected to agree to terms by Thursday. He is expected to choose between NYY, Boston, and Toronto. Whichever two teams are out of the Fried sweepstakes, will be the frontrunners for Burnes. The Giants are also in on Burnes. There is also speculation that Baltimore is not saying no to retaining Burnes. But that Chris Davis contract still has a hold on them. New ownership with deeper pockets…go for it.
How about Grichuk if we whiff on Teo??????
OK player, but I don’t think he really moves the needle much. Is there any FA at this point who does that?
The OF mix now is Edman, Pages, Outman, Taylor and Conforto. (Getting Conforto was a really smart move.)
I’d rather see if Outman can get his mojo back than add a guy like Grichuk–and it would great if Pages starts hitting righties.
If AF whiffs on Teo and Santander, he might want to explore the trade market.
I’d love to see a blockbuster for Robert Jr. But if that proves unworkable, I’ve also read that the Cubs really want to unload Belli’s contract, and would consider dealing Suzuki–and that Orioles could deal Mullins.
I
NYY and Max Fried have reportedly agreed on an 8 year, $218MM deal. Corbin Burnes has a much less injury risk, is a year younger than Fried, and has $cott Bora$ as his agent. If Fried gets 7 years, what might that portend for Burnes. Blake Snell’s contract is looking better and better.
Yankees on tilt. Teoscar is about to get a big bag of cash
Good for both
Red Sox courting Teo too. Santander should get similar money–and similarly not from the Dodgers.
Full no trade, no opt outs, no deferrals.
Yep. AF was smart to jump the SP market, and the Conforto deal is looking better too as prices go up… and the odds of bringing back Teo go down.
Per Gomes Muncy is the Dodgers third baseman. Pretty much puts the Arenado trade rumors to bed. With Roberts stating on MLB Network last night that Betts is the SS and Lux is the second baseman that settles the infield for next season. Hope they sign Teo. The outfield is pretty anemic right now.
Unless, as discussed yesterday, it’s a Dee Gordon situation
“that settles the infield for next season”
I doubt it.
Lol. Yeah, you’re right on that. Shouldn’t have been so final with that statement!
Yeah, there’s still a lot that can happen between now and April.
I hope this is misdirection talk.
Fried to NYY; 8 years $218M.
I found this note from Ardaya interesting, especially in light of how the Dodgers showed interest in Edman before trading for him:
A detail from Andrew Friedman today: Dodgers had shown interest in Michael Conforto at last year’s trade deadline before signing him this winter.
Same was the case with Blake Snell. I’m sure a Dodgers-Giants deal would’ve gone over well at the time.
AF stays on players that he covets. I knew that AF was high on both Edman and Snell. AF has been enamored with Snell since he drafted him in the 1st round in 2011. AF loves his utility guys, and Edman is an elite utility guy. I had no idea that he had previous interest in Conforto.
On the flip side, the Dodgers were tied to Willy Adames for the last 2-3 years, and that buzz died down quickly this winter. I think it has been about a decade since rumors with Nolan Arenado to LAD first started. The only buzz on Arenado to LAD is on the Baseball Trade Simulator.
Prior year buzz on Corbin Burnes, crickets this winter.
Many of us have thrown names out there where we believe the Dodgers should be checking on. And yet I do not hear any buzz on any free agents or trades. Nothing on the Dodgers for Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr., Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Kyle Tucker. None of my SS picks look to be traded. Although that is not a surprise.
The Dodgers have been tied to Rōki Sasaki for the last couple of years. They went from the heavy favorite to an underdog to San Diego.
The most recent rumor is that the Dodgers have interest in Tanner Scott and Devin Williams. How much interest?
The Harvard-Westlake trio all wanted to pitch for LAD (Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty). Of the three, the Dodgers got 2 months of Flaherty, and it is probable that those 2 months will be it for all three.
I think they are near tapped out on FA. Maybe Teoscar (but it is looking more doubtful evry day), and Clayton Kershaw.
I am a prospect nut, but I am also a realist. The Dodgers have ZERO elite prospects. Their best prospect, Dalton Rushing (#26), would be a backup catcher, a reserve LF, and bat off the bench if he stays with LAD. The other three top 100 prospects, Josue De Paula (#33), Alex Freeland (#65), and Jackson Ferris (#98) have huge ?????.
I do hope AF/BG has a surprise or two out there
“The Dodgers have ZERO elite prospects.”
That’s more or less what I’ve been driving at, or asking about, for a while now. The best use of these non elite prospects is to trade them for help now. I know who I’ve wanted over the past few years, non of whom got here, so now my list is several I don’t know (you do) Crochet, Robert Jr and more International $ to land Sasaki. The shortstop, Bichette, can come in ‘26 I guess.
By the way, is Flaherty still a possibility? I know somebody is going to overpay him, I’m assuming it won’t be us.
I dunno Badger, from where I sit none of those make sense with what AF says or has done.
Not Flaherty, Crochet or Robert Jr.
But it’s value signings or value trades, and none of those three seem to line up with that mantra.
Seems like it’s sign Sasaki, hopefully sign Teo.
Beyond that? Maybe trade some on or near 40 surplus prospects (not the top ones) for lower level ones.
And that’s it.
The more I think about it, the less ways I can see fitting Kyle Tucker in if he is indeed moved this off-season.
It is getting crazier and crazier with FA. RHSP Nathan Eovaldi just agreed to re-sign with Texas for 3 years and $75MM.
Posted this in the wrong thread:
Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.
Here’s the top 5:
NationalsAngelsMarinersRockiesCardinalsPer Ardaya:
Andrew Friedman on Teoscar Hernández: “I know that he has talked about wanting to (re-sign), I know that we have talked about wanting him to…But it’s not everything. He and his family get to go through the interest and figure out what makes the most sense for them.”
Per Doug McKain:
Andrew Friedman says that Roki Sasaki is a major priority for the Dodgers:
“He is someone that obviously is a major priority for us and we’re going to do whatever we can, and know that there are a lot of other teams that are going to do the exact same thing.”
Friedman went on to say Sasaki is capable of being the best pitcher in the world.
As I continue to think of dealing with CWS for Crochet or Luis Robert Jr., the less optimistic I am that Gavin Lux is a fit for CWS. Yes, the ChiSox need a 2B (badly), and Lux is a good one. But they are also more than 2 years away from being a serious contender even for a WC. Lux has 2 years of control, thus he is not going to help CWS when they are ready to contend. CWS will do MUCH better for either player. Backup catchers and platoon OF, no matter how many you want to include, are not more coveted than top 10, and multiple top 100 prospects.
I don’t think the Dodgers are even considering vying for Crochet. Waiting on Sasaki first and instead.
Because Sasaki was posted on Dec. 10, he could sign in either the 2024 international signing period or the 2025 international signing period.
If Sasaki signs for the 2024 period, he would have to reach an agreement by Dec. 15, which is when that current signing period ends.