There is still nothing happening, and my consulting gig is taking up a lot of my time. I am trying to get ahead of the project so that I can be available for the Winter Meetings next week.
Rule 5 draft is next Wednesday. Last year, the Dodgers lost three in the ML phase, but got one back (Gus Varland). They lost Ryan Noda to the A’s and Jose Hernandez to Pittsburgh. Both had good years at the ML level. They could lose a couple more this year. We will get to more of this next week.
Dodgers seem to be the most aggressive on Dylan Cease, but there are at least 12 teams pursuing him. St. Louis is making a big effort to make a run at Milwaukee for the NL Central. John Mozeliak has said they will stay aggressive, and the rotation and bullpen are not complete.
I hope something pops sooner rather than later so we can get off guessing on Shohei Ohtani. Or whether or not AF changes his stripes this offseason?
Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Bieber appear to be the only top of the rotation pitchers who could be on the move. But there is always some crazy a** trade that shocks everyone. Burnes would be my top choice, but he may not be available until the trade deadline.
NYY is leaning against signing Bellinger because his hard hit rate is way down. In 2019 his hard hit rate on 4-seam fastballs was over 50% but was at 33% last year. Overall his hard hit rate was at 31.4% I personally prefer the current Belli who is not the all or nothing swinger he used to be. When he is down in the count, he tends to favor putting the ball in play more. His K rate was 15.7% the best of his career. Hmmmm, I wonder who had him alter his approach and why it did not stick with the Dodgers.
Per Statcast, Belli is in the 22nd percentile for average exit velo, 27th percentile for barrel %, and 10th percentile for hard hit.
If NYY chooses to pass on him, SF or the Cubs would gladly sign him. I have steadfastly said that SF should go way out and sign Belli. He is a perfect fit for Oracle. The Cubs actually have a potentially elite CF waiting: Pete Crow-Armstrong. They will not be as aggressive for CF. I think pitching will be their key focus, with 3B and 1B (Rhys Hoskins??). Christopher Morel will be a key target for some teams.
NYY seems to be focusing more of their attention on Juan Soto. With only one year of control remaining, the Pads are not going to get near what they gave up, but will get some good talent. NYY has 5 top 100 prospects, but they are from 73-99. I find it hard to believe that NYY will trade Spencer Jones for one year of Juan Soto. And with Scott Boras as his agent, it is extremely unlikely that Soto will agree to an extension before he hits FA.
Next week is going to get fun.
My wife and I will be in Nashville next week to take in a benefit concert for the Country Music Hall of Fame. When we booked the short three-day trip I wasn’t aware the Winter Meetings would be at the same time.
Staying downtown but I’m probably going to visit the Gaylord Opryland Hotel on Tuesday just to walk around and see what I can see. If I happen to bump into AF I’ll get an update and post it here. Maybe I’ll see Ohtani sporting a new Dodger hat or maybe I’ll see AF shopping at the bargain bin or the blue light special aisle.
Back in the day you could see all kinds of front office guys and managers walking around all day. Now the word is they just stay in their suites and communicate via text
Enjoy your trip and maybe you’ll get lucky.
Oh man, that’s awesome. Please report back on how soon we’ll be getting stuff done!
All the pundits and “experts”agree the Dodgers need starting pitching, most say 2 starters. Another need they agree on is a good hitting rh corner outfielder( or 2). Then there are those who would like an upgrade at 3rd base. All that will tske a large chunk of change.
Nowhere is anyone saying they have a hole to fill for a lefthanded DH, yet so many banter about getting Ohtani being so important. And at what price?
Muncy will be DH if no Ohtani.
Scanning the chatter this morning I wonder if after losing out on Ohtani SF will mark time for a year then make a play for Soto. He’s going to help some team other than San Diego make a run at it this year then enter free agency in his prime. I doubt it will be LA, unless we lose out on Ohtani, I just hope he goes east to an AL club.
Heading to Cali next week. I will be there until the end of the month. But I do not plan on leaving until after the winter meetings are over. Blue Jays GM says the Bichette trade rumors are just that, rumors. Pundits still think the Dodgers want Adames and Burnes, but the price for two rentals is too high to my way of thinking.
If Kershaw wants to wait until he knows how well he feels/pitches in mid July before signing a contract, what do the Dodgers do if they sign a few big contracts before Kershaw says he is available?
Is Ryu in play to fill the Dodger lefty need? He would not be a huge block should Sheehan, Pepiot, Stone, or Grove push their way into the rotation. Snell would also fill the lefty need and if he only averages 5 innings, the Dodgers have a lot of 3 to 5 inning pitchers to finish his games.
Add Snell and Yamamoto and then defend:
2B Betts
1B Freeman
C Smith
DH Muncy
LF DeLuca
CF Outman
3B Rojas
RF Heyward
SS Lux
or
Add Ohtani and Ryu and Wacha
2B Betts
1B Freeman
DH Ohtani
C Smith
SS Lux
LF DeLuca/Taylor
CF Outman
3B Muncy
RF Heyward/DeLuca
Interesting choices there.
Your “defend” lineup won’t ever happen because Badger and I have decided that Rojas will never be made the every day third baseman, but that’s a very nice defensive outfield.
Your second lineup certainly looks a lot stronger with Shohei in it and I’m a huge Ryu fan so I guess I probably favor that if I have to accept one of them as you’ve shown them.
If they miss out on Ohtani and Yamamoto is willing to play here, I don’t think AF will let Farhan or the NY teams outbid him. He desperately needs an ace and, as we have discussed, we have no idea if Buehler will be Buehler again or if Miller will continue his progress and become the ace. And, of course, there is that unconfirmed story that YY is a Dodger fan.
Since we’re all in fantasy land here anyway, I’d like to see us get Ohtani, Yamamoto and Ryu or Imanaga so we have at least one lefty in the rotation. If we’re going to platoon Taylor in left, I think it should be with a lefty batter. Let’s bring in Brantley for a year. He was hurt for most of last year, but should be good to go by ST. I see him as another JHey in the clubhouse and he’s always been an excellent hitter. I’ve been touting Lee from Korea, but if we get Ohtani and Yamamoto there won’t be enough in the budget for him.
Also, isn’t Lee a left handed hitter? With Ohtani, we’d have him along with Freeman, Muncy, Lux, Heyward, Outman all hitting from the left side.
Yes, he is a lefty hitter, but in his 7 year Korean career, he has struck out less than 8% of the time and has an OBP of over .400. He can’t be hitting badly against southpaws and be accumulating those kind of numbers. I looked for his splits but couldn’t find them, but I’m guessing he hits all pitchers pretty well.
Granted, there is a big difference between Korea and MLB but the average MLB hitter strikes out about 24% of the time.
Just to keep you happy Blue I will sign Joc and have platoons in LF and RF.
LF Pederson/Taylor
RF Heyward/DeLuca
Joc really doesn’t do a good job in the outfield any more, but I admire your persistence.
He is maybe 30 pounds away from being a good defender again.
Dodgers have hired Nelson Cruz as an advisor. Cruz just retired. They also lost Tim Laker to the Angels. Brant Brown is going from the Marlins to the Mariners.
I believe Jeff D. has raised the idea of OF Randy Arozarena:
SO!
Who says no?
Busch, Rushing and Stone
FOR
Arozarena, Glasnow and Montgomery?
I’d think Tampa asks for more if we get both Glasnow and Arrozarena
How did Montgomery sneak in there with the trade scenario? He’s a free agent.
Wouldn’t mind getting my hands on those three guys but Arozarena has 3 years of control remaining and would probably take Busch, Rushing and Stone all by himself. Then you’d have to add more for Glasnow.
Mason Montgomery!
And the all-fun, all-the-time Trade Simulator likes my silly idea.
Ah, Mason Montgomery!
I keep forgetting what a low value the Simulator puts on Glasnow.
OK, it’s a deal, but I’m thinking I might rather give them Cartaya and keep Rushing. Can’t quite make up my mind on that one.
If I recall, the Simulator rates Cartaya slightly higher than Rushing but would probably OK that deal as well.
It might be worth a conversation to see how Tampa Bay feels about Hunter Feduccia. RH hitting RH hitting Miguel Vargas may be of more interest than LH hitting Busch.
Maybe some team out there would be interested in Mr. Barnes to work with their young pitchers.
I am sure there are. More than most LAD fans think. Seattle, Miami, and Cincinnati have some good young pitchers, and weak back up catchers. Houston likes catchers who work well with pitchers and do not care what they hit. They now have Yainer Diaz, a hit first catcher, who has finally taken over for Martin Maldonado.
If that is all it took I would be in. But I agree with STB, it will not be nearly enough. Glasnow was downgraded from his baseball value because of his contract. I don’t think Tampa Bay takes that much into consideration. I doubt very much that Mason Montgomery will be included. The Rays are devoid of catching and catching talent, but Rushing may be too far out for Tampa. I prefer to see Stone moved over the others. but I doubt that he moves the needle too much for Tampa Bay. The Rays DH is Luke Raley and he had a very good year for Tampa Bay (.824 OPS). He is LH hitting, so that minimizes the value of Michael Busch for Tampa Bay. 2B and 3B are already solid positions for Tampa Bay.
The numbers may work, but the players are not a good fit.
Was it me or Andrew Friedman who once said:
If Luke Raley is the answer, you don’t have an answer.
After last season “if Luke Raley is the answer, you don’t have an answer” is no longer the answer.
Reports are out there that a Cease trade is getting close, but nobody knows where he’s going. If true, I’m kind of surprised they aren’t waiting a while for teams who don’t get The Big Y to get a little more desperate.
Yeah, I was joshing.
There’s zero chance any trade I come up with will happen. It’s just for shits and giggles.
Not exactly zero chance.
AF has just fired Brandon Gomes in favor of a subscription to the Trade Simulator.
Trade Simulator is free!
Don’t tell Gomes.
Actually they’ve added some paid stuff but so far I’m too cheap to subscribe to it.
I “donated” some cash.
But I like to pay for good content.
Jon Weisman, back working with the Dodgers, just posted this from the stadium.
Is it a good omen? Or maybe Vin saying “hi” on his birthday? Or both.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAJDFttboAAgIWE?format=jpg&name=small
Per TheAthletic:
The Yankees and Padres continue to talk Juan Soto, tho NYY is (so far) reluctant to part w/ its highest-end young talent, and they’re still keeping tabs on Cody Bellinger, whose early ask has been described as very high, source tells The Athletic
The trade simulator says:
Everson Pereira, Chase Hampton and George Lombard
for
Soto
De Los Santos
That way the Yanks hold onto Volpe and company.
Soto really seems like the perfect match for the Yanks. They just need to come to a meeting of the minds on what comes back to SD…………….and we can get him out of the division.
It’s rumored Bellinger was spotted at LAX. Could it be….
And then caught a shuttle to John Wayne?
I think Yanks CF prospect Dominguez? will have to be in the trade for it to happen.
FA Signed the last couple of days:
RHP Nick Martinez – 2 years $26MM with Cincinnati
RHRP Emilio Pagan – 2 years $16MM with Cincinnati
RHSP Luis Severino – 1 year $13MM w/ $2MM in incentives with NYM
INF Joey Wendle – 1 year $2MM with NYM
INF/OF Garrett Hampson – 1 year $2MM with KC
Whew! It’s hard keeping up so far. Who would of thought Cincinnati would dominate free agency? The Mets aren’t a surprise, but Cincinnati? Lol
Is AF working hard, initially, on trades as opposed to free agents?
It’s too bad that the Padres wouldn’t consider a trade with the Dodgers for Juan
Soto. Although, the big issue is resigning him in free agency with the Boros factor being a tall wall. I would much rather have Soto than Ohtani mainly because of the age and health aspect. But, a not very realistic want by me.
Per Rosenthal (and there’s more to this but it’s $$$$)
New White Sox general manager Chris Getz is telling clubs he likely will wait to move on right-hander Dylan Cease until after the top free-agent starting pitchers sign, according to major-league sources briefed on the discussions.
That makes a lot more sense.
Cease seems to be the biggest trade chip on the starting pitcher market (mostly because he’s controlled for that extra year over Burnes, Glasnow and Sieber).
It would make sense for Getz to wait until Ohtani and Yamamoto come off the board and if he’s lucky, Snell will have signed by that time also. Then you have the best guy on the market and prices go up.
In this market the supply is always going to be smaller than the demand so as pieces get removed, the supply dwindles and prices go up. Thank you Adam Smith.
One problem with that strategy is that teams like the Dodgers might be willing to pay the price now, but may not later on. AF looks for the perfect deal (fair deal??). If they go beyond his comfort zone, AF will not bite. Obviously LAD was not offering what CWS wanted, and that could be AF’s ceiling. Getz may not care if AF wants to continue to pursue a trade. He will get other teams to bite. It will be the Dodgers who will not meet the price. Or maybe they are done shopping but not getting a top of the rotation pitcher. T
Some movement starting to happen. Meetings start in three days.
Some exciting news for you, Bear.
The Hanshin Tigers have re-signed your favorite (or maybe second favorite) player, Sheldon Neuse.