I struggled a little as to how I should approach this topic. I could simply do what a lot of writers and bloggers are doing and repeat what the Dodgers needs are and who they are linked to. Instead I thought I would say what I think will happen. More of an editorial. I am basing what I believe will happen on what AF has done in the past. He may prove to be a baseball executive with a change in his offseason strategy, and as a Dodgers fan, I will be pleased. I am hoping that he looks at 2024 as a season they could win it all with the right player personnel…hint, hint, elite pitching.
Here goes.
The Dodgers are about to embark on what has been described as an aggressive approach to the Winter Meeting. I am on the I won’t believe it until I see it train. We have been here before. I cannot remember the last Winter Meeting where the Dodgers were aggressive. This year it is a day shorter than most years. In the past, the Meetings ended on Thursday with the Rule 5 Draft. This year the Rule 5 draft will again end the Meetings, but it will be on Wednesday.
One writer wrote what I consider a fair reading as to where the Dodgers stand going into the Winter Meetings:
The Los Angeles Dodgers have some fundamental questions they are going to have to answer this offseason. Coming off another strong regular season only to get bounced early from the playoffs, LA looked surprisingly vulnerable as a team despite the fact that they had two viable MVP candidates in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on their roster.
The rotation is a mess, the bullpen could use some more depth, and the lineup outside of Mookie and Freddie is a mix of unproven young guys and guys that have been around for a while that are getting older and have some warts to their games.
2024 is absolutely going to be a transitional year for the Dodgers as a result. If the wrong moves are made, LA could find that their run of dominance in the NL West coming to an end with the Diamondbacks already nipping at their heels and the Giants looking to make a splash this offseason.
Before the end of the meetings, I do expect Shohei Ohtani to be a LAD. IMO, the owners are behind this transaction. $500MM-$600MM will be recouped very quickly so that the owners will make out very well. The baseball team? Now that is another question.
The Dodgers scored 900 runs during the season and lost 3 games to none to Arizona, being outscored 19-6. I agree that Ohtani will be fun to watch in the lineup, but he will do nothing to help the rotation. Exactly how many more runs will Ohtani provide over what JDM provided last year?
Currently the rotation is more reminiscent of a bottom half team. In the NL West, the D-backs, Padres, and Giants have better top of the rotation pitchers than do the Dodgers. If you read all the Dodger news sites, they are expected to be in on Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, and Shōta Imanaga. They are also linked to Lucas Giolito and now Seth Lugo. I think those are more realistic options for AF and BG.
Per Jack Harris, LA Times:
“Lucas Giolito has emerged as one of the Dodgers’ targets, according to people with knowledge of the situation unauthorized to speak publicly. Jack Flaherty and Seth Lugo have also been linked with the team of late, while other veterans such as Michael Wacha and Marcus Stroman could also bolster the club’s pitching depth.”
Looks like someone a lot more connected than me is writing about what I have been saying all along. The Dodgers will add two to three pitchers. They just will not be elite.
AF and BG have both said they are confident that the current team is a WS contender as it is. But they acknowledge that they need at least two additional starters. They have never said two top of the rotation starters. It has been the Dodger bloggers and writers who have added that little caveat.
The Dodgers have bid on star payers and star pitchers, and outside of Trevor Bauer, have been unsuccessful. Oh they did sign Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy.
I see no way AF/BG will agree to what Yoshinobu Yamamoto wants in terms of $$$ and years. Especially the years. It is so far out of their comfort zone that it is not conceivable. IMO this has Steve Cohen will do whatever it takes to sign Yamamoto. NYY, Chicago Cubs, Boston, and SFG are all planning on negotiating with Imanaga. The next time AF/BG is successful outbidding those teams for elite players/pitchers will be the first. Okay, second. Trevor Bauer. But Bauer was buying exactly what the Dodgers were selling; low number of years and high AAV. That is not what players are looking for free agency anymore.
There are current reports that Imanaga’s market is quickly approaching nine figures.
Montgomery and Snell are Boras clients. AF/BG are going to need to do something they have not yet done…negotiate in good faith with Boras. I am skeptical that they will succeed. Montgomery could end up back in St. Louis or Texas. I have always believed he was Texas’ to lose, and Texas has zero problems negotiating with Boras.
The rumor going around lately is that Seattle will sign Snell and then look to trade one of Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, or Emerson Hancock for a ML bat. I think some fans just make this s*** up and watch it take off. Regardless, I do not see any way that Snell will end up a Dodger. Too much of his success comes against LAD for him to give that up. He is more likely to end up in SF.
That leaves the trade route. Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and now Shane Bieber. I was an advocate for Bieber 2 years ago. Not so much now. But the Dodgers believe they can fix anyone.
There are questions as to whether Bieber will be traded at all. Per The Athletic…”So, is there much of a point to moving Bieber for, say, a couple of midlevel, non-top-100 prospects? What does that accomplish, other than reducing an already-microscopic payroll? And would that return outweigh the draft-pick compensation the team would net if Bieber walks after the 2024 season?”
There are multiple teams that will be involved in trade talks for those pitchers, and many (if not most of the low revenue/payroll teams) are not considerations for the top FA pitchers. Cincinnati and Baltimore are two teams that are very much involved with the top trade targets, and they have prospects galore to spend. Many MLB journalists are picking Baltimore to come away with Dylan Cease.
Cubs…Atlanta…Arizona…Every playoff contender from 2023 that is looking for that last edge to get them over the top will be in on the trades for those specific pitchers. Will the Dodgers be willing to overpay for a rental ??? They have been reluctant to do so in the past.
My choice would be Corbin Burnes. However per Jon Heyman, “the trade market for starting pitchers — which includes Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Corbin Burnes — is strong. However rival teams see Burnes as someone likely to remain in Milwaukee, which has a chance to win. “
Just like the AL Central (Cleveland), the NL Central is winnable by as many as 4 teams, and Milwaukee at has a much better chance with Burnes. They can re-assess at the trade deadline. Same with Cleveland and Bieber.
None of the others, including Dylan Cease move the needle for me as much as Burnes. Glasnow would be my #2 choice. While he represents a huge injury risk, he has a very high ceiling. And that could be the difference in October.
The biggest question for me is not whether the Dodgers are willing to spend $500-$600MM on Ohtani, but what are they willing to do after, IF they are successful in signing Ohtani.
I am prepared to mosey on up to a heaping plate of crow if the Dodgers are aggressive and do acquire top pitching. But if they do not, I do not expect much else to change from 2023. They will score runs, but for 2024 they may have to score 10 runs a night to be successful.
Cleveland’s current rotation – Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.
LAD current rotation – Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Yarbrough.
The last three for Cleveland were rookies last year who had better results than did Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller. The Dodgers do not have the rotation that Cleveland has. But the Dodgers have enough for their offense to beat up on most teams. Will it be enough to win in October?
What do you think WILL happen. Not what you want. But if you want to comment as to what you want, go ahead. The comments are for you.
Gavin Stone: #4 starter and ROY
I would love that.
I fully expect the Dodgers to wind up with an elite starter, whether or not we get Ohtani.
Yes, I expect AF to change his MO.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see us sign Yamamoto even after signing Shohei but if he chooses to go elsewhere, Andrew will come up with a starter who will begin the season as our #1, even if that means finding a trade for a pitcher nobody is even talking about as a potential trade candidate.
There, I said it.
I have no clue. At all.
I think the FO has earned my trust though. Unlike the BoSox’
They have earned mine as well. AF will still put a team on the field that will reach the playoffs, with or without Ohtani. He is a master of constructing a team ready for the 162 game schedule. Anything after that is a big ?
I think we will be surprised by AF’s off season moves as he indeed goes BIG and signs Ohtani and acquires at least one big time SP (Yammamoto, Burnes, Cease, Glasnow) either by trade or FA and also signs or trades for at least one tier two SP (Giolito, Flaherty, Wacha, Lugo, Bieber, Stroman etc).
With the signing of Joe Kelly and the return to good health of Trienen and Freyersein the BP is set and we’ll see youth inserted this year for the occasional injury or phantom IL (Knack, Hurt, Grove, Frasso etc).
For trades I suspect he uses some, but not all with the likes Busch, Vargas, Stone, Cartaya, Knack used as trade pieces.
One thing is certain, before anyone actually signs a contract a trade must happen to make room on the 40 man roster. An announcement on an agreement might happen first but the trading must happen before the actual signing takes place. I know this is obvious to most of us.
Jeopardy Theme Song!
Dodgers need pitching more than they need Ohtani. Yamamoto and Imanaga over Ohtani a big yes but not likely to happen. Maybe one of the two to go along with Burnes, and Glasnow. Lets see what happens.
I find it interesting how most people understand/accept that signing Ohtani to a large contract would pay for itself in international sponsorships,etc. That Ohtani’s hypothetical $50 mil would be recouped pretty quickly from new revenue streams.
Then, those same people wonder ‘wait, will we have any more money to spend to improve the baseball team?” Ummm, if Ohtani’s money gets paid by international sponsorships and new revenue streams, then yes, we have more money!
No other player on the market requires blending the business decisions AND the financial decisions/potential revenue, like Shohei Ohtani, unless we’re signing Lebron James, Christiano Ronaldo, or Taylor Swift.
If Ohtani is a business AND baseball decision, then the business part takes care of it self, AND the baseball part has more funds to play with!
Hence, I foresee Ohtani signing this week, and that will NOT preclude a Corbin Burnes trade or even another top of the rotation starter, PLUS signing a back end reclamation project (because we just have to do it) in Giolito, Flaherty, etc.
I look for a really fun week for all of us. Can’t wait! Now, as a Bears fan on this Sunday, it’s time to continue rooting for the Carolina Panthers to lose so we can get that top pick and draft Caleb Williams.
Very well said Bobby.
I would like to get under the CBT threshold though because of the player penalties more than the money penalties. With May, Gonsolin, and Ohtani potentially returning to the rotation in 2025, the Dodgers maybe only need a one year rental for 2024 or roll the dice on in-house pitching plus lower cost additions like Giolito or Wacha. I like those two anyway.
If the Dodgers sign Ohtani, I would offer Muncy for Bieber and assume Muncy would have to play second base for the Guardians. Their second baseman, Gimenez, line was .251.314.399.713 last year with 15 home runs. Maybe he could be moved to the outfield. Muncy’s line was .212.333.475.808 with 36 home runs. The Guardians want more proven power.
The Dodgers could go with defense first at third using Rojas. That would strengthen the left side while Lux establishes himself at short. Or they could use Vargas, Busch, etc to get a better hitting third baseman such as the A’s Gelof who had a line last year of .267.337.504.841.
I’m assuming that you have nothing personal against Max, it’s just that you don’t like his extremely low batting average and sub-par fielding at third base.
Just wondering, if he were to get back to his 2019 line of .251/.374/.515 with 35 homers and an OPS+ of 132, would that be satisfactory to you? Granted the odds that he would do that in his age 33 season are miniscule, but I’m just trying to dig deeper into your lack of faith in Mr. Muncy.
Right now, we are talking Ohtani and pitching. Ohtani replaces Max’s bat and more than recreates Max’s 2019 stats. Trading Max for pitching fits with the pitching half of the discussion. Using prospects to get Gelof gets the Dodgers younger and replaces a lot of Max’s swing and miss with ball-in-play.
I’m also assuming Gelof will be a little better defending 3rd than Vargas Busch, and Max. He is also a righty bat.
Last and least, trading Max is a hobby I enjoy.
I like the proposal above. Better defense, a RH bat, and younger. I’m in!
Bumsrap, you are certainly consistent with your trade subjects. I did miss the constant Witt trade scenario. Lol.
OK, that makes sense if we get Ohtani, although we’ll have lost the power and RBI of both Max and JDM and replaced with Shohei, so we’d better hope that Busch or Vargas or Gelof can replace some of the remainder.
By the way, I don’t think Gelof is considered all that good a fielder either. We’ll just have to accept the fact that our third baseman, whomever that is with the current alternatives, is not going to be a great fielder.
Ted pointed out that you failed to include a Witt trade in your scenario and I also noticed a lack of mentioning CT3 or Joc. I can see that Max is obviously your favorite…………..in a negative sort of way.
I assume you are talking about Zach Gelof. You do know he was moved to 2B because he cannot play 3B better than Busch or Max. And you are right that by trading prospects for Gelof, the team gets younger. The team has two prospects younger than Gelof. Vargas (1 month younger) and Pages (14 months younger). The Dodgers do not have a Zack Gelof in their organization.
But I do hope the Dodgers do look at trying to acquire Zack. Oakland needs pitching and the Dodgers are not going to give up their pitching surplus for a 2B.
I prefer that the Dodgers trade Muncy to NYY for Gerrit Cole, and that is not going to happen either. You are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Muncy is not a fit for Cleveland. You want to move a 2-time GG winner to the OF? No 2B is close defensively to Gimenez. Cleveland builds their team around pitching and defense. Cleveland wants OF help. Cleveland NEEDS OF help. Their last 20 HR OF was Michael Brantley (20) in 2014. Their last 30 HR OF was Grady Sizemore (33) in 2008. If the Dodgers want to trade James Outman, Cleveland will do that deal.
I guess I am stuck with having to use alternative facts to make that trade. The only fact in my favor is that the Guardians need Muncy’s bat but not his glove.
Gelof makes the Dodgers younger only in regard to replacing Muncy but not so if Vargas were to play third. Muncy for Cole doesn’t fit with the payroll narrative I was making and is not a fair argument/evaluation against a Muncy for Bieber trade.
It is FAR more likely that Muncy stays after signing his 2 year contract. I am not positive, but because Muncy signed a new contract, he cannot be traded until mid-June. Regardless, the Dodgers did not extend Muncy to trade him, especially for a back end starter, even if he was a former Ace; and one I was hoping AF would acquire 2 years ago.
I guess trading Muncy for Cole is my alternative fact. Neither will happen.
Cleveland writer comment on the prospects of trading Bieber.
Without an overpay, Cleveland is not likely to trade Bieber. AF does not overpay. And for that I am grateful.
Good stuff here Bobby. There are definitely are some unusual considerations with signing Ohtani.
I am one of those same people who wonder whether LAD will have any more money they want to spend to improve the baseball team if they sign Ohtani. It is an ownership decision to buy Ohtani. But IMO it will be ownership that will limit the payroll for the remainder of the team.
Kasten has said that winning the Division and getting to the playoffs is what they are working towards. Not winning WS championships has not hurt the attendance at all, and that makes Kasten happy. Signing Ohtani and journeymen pitching accomplishes that.
Once again the Dodgers will be 3rd on Yamamoto. Both NY teams are heavy favorites over LAD to land him. NYY gave Gerrit Cole 9 years. Heck they gave Carlos Rodón 6 years. IMO, Steve Cohen will have no problem giving Yamamoto 9 years, and that will be the decider. Even if it is 7 years, that will be well past what AF will agree to. The days of a player betting on himself are over. Trevor Bauer was the last. Look at the contracts over the last 2 years alone.
AF has consistently said that FA signings have to make sense for the long term. Ohtani changes that, but I do not see the Dodgers then getting that Ace.
I agree with you that signing Ohtani will not preclude the Dodgers from trading for Corbin Burnes. His projected $15.1MM is well within their comfort zone. Whether they can re-sign him long term will be a factor next year. I just do not think the Dodgers have the prospects to beat out Baltimore or Cincinnati. The Braves want Cease to come home to Atlanta. AA will not be outbid by AF.
I hope AF surprises me and makes a Mookie Betts type trade. The problem remains that both Baltimore and Cincinnati can blow LAD out with a trade offer, if they want. Maybe if the Dodgers agreed to take Christian Yelich and all of his remaining salary in addition to Burnes. Yelich has either $150MM for 6 years or $136.5MM for 5.
We are not talking about Steve Cohen, Jerry Dipoto, Dave Dombrowski, Alex Anthopoulos, AJ Preller…
Stealing this from Twitter:
Three Winter Meetings Expectations
1. Trade market turns up: the lack of top-tier position players on the FA market has created increased demand in the trade market.
2. A signing or trade leaves that the industry speechless.
3. The return of the Mystery Team! 🕶👿👥
Hopefully AF/BG will make a big splash but I sometimes wonder if they juggle too many balls at one time.
Living in WA, I would be happy to attend Mariners games with Pederson and Ohtani joining Rodriguez in their lineup.
Seattle is a logical spot for Joc. So is Cleveland. Seattle has already said they are out on Ohtani. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. with more bat to ball skills in LF than the power from Joc may be of more interest. Both are logical fits for Seattle. Call Jerry Dipoto and make it happen. I am planning a trip to Seattle this summer, so maybe I will watch Joc hit.
Story on MLBTR this morning says Ohtani will probably not announce where he is going for at least another week or so. This complicates things for some of the other free agents since many are waiting to see what Shohei does. The Dodgers roster is currently at 39 players. Heyward is not on the official roster yet and neither is Kelly. The roster has 23 pitchers, 4 catchers, 4 outfielders and 8 infielders. Some will have to be moved before any signings take place. Trades and or DFA moves seem inevitable.
Now, if the Dodgers do sign Ohtani, I doubt very seriously that they sign one of the other free agents who received a QO. Which means Snell, Hader, Bellinger et all. The reason is simple. LA signs Ohtani or any of the other QO recipients, they lose 2 draft picks in June and 1 million bucks in international pool money. If they sign a second player with a QO, they lose 4 draft picks and the money. The picks would be 2, 3, 5, 6. And we all know how AF likes his picks.
I am in Jeff’s camp at this point. I will believe it when I see it.
The Dodgers will have to do both: trade and DFA. The trades will have to come from players already on the 40 man. Trading Dalton Rushing makes little sense, but Diego Cartaya does as he is on the 40 man. The same is true for non 40 man top prospects Josue De Paula, River Ryan, Payton Martin, and Joendry Vargas. Other than Cartaya, Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Hunter Feduccia, Jonny Deluca, and Andy Pages are the most likely prospects to be included in trades. They may trade Barnes for a lottery pick, but I cannot see them ever just releasing him. Victor Gonzalez and Bryan Hudson are the two most likely to be DFA’s (IMO).
Jorbit Vivas in a similar trade as Eddys Leonard is also a possibility. Maybe a lottery pick instead of cash. There are also relievers who could be traded (i.e. Caleb Ferguson, Alex Vesia, Michael Grove). The problem will be that many teams are not as enamored with the Dodgers prospects as are the fans. Eddys Leonard was the LAD #8 prospect last year, and all the Dodgers could get back for him was cash. They couldn’t even trade Andre Jackson (#11 in 2022). He was DFA’d last June.
AF and Gomes have to take an approach that may not be in their comfort zone. Pitching is the most important and expensive commodity in baseball. This is the first time they have gone into the offseason with such a weak starting staff. Either a large and long contract in free agency or a trade involving a few prospects is going to be necessary to re-establish a dominant staff.
Do what it takes to trade for a top end starter. As I have mentioned many times the Dodgers have more than enough prospects to do so. It would be good for the Dodgers and the prospects in that they will have a chance to pitch in MLB.
Is everybody ready?
The start of the Winter Meetings is here. One of my favorite 4-day periods of each year.
The meetings are the only event where I will force myself to watch the eternally obnoxious Greg Amsinger on MLB tv. Otherwise, I shut off the tube every time he appears. Coverage starts today at 4:00 PM Pacific time.
Waiting for the first news to come out of the meetings is like the first uphill on a great roller coaster. You’re kind of holding your breath and when you get to the top of that first hill it’s either total exhilaration (good trade/signing), absolute fear (bad trade/signing) or the realization that this really isn’t as good a ride as you’d anticipated (lack of anything interesting from your team).
Here’s hoping for total exhilaration!
I thought I was the only person who gets nauseated watching Greg Amsinger 😁
Jon Heyman reports multiple bids “well north” of $500MM and wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t get to $600MM. Insane if that is the case. But, Heyman has issues with what’s really happening. He likes to see his name in print. If the Dodgers pay the $600MM number I would be shocked considering AF’s past history in free agency. Come Farhan, step up to the plate! Lol.
haha, that is some mind boggling money to be sure.
Mr. Heyman does seem rather gullible at times. I think teams and/or agents like to use him to get stuff out there to push contracts higher or steer competition in the wrong direction.
On the other hand, I could see Yamamoto getting in the $250-280MM range over 10 years. He’s young enough that the signing team could afford to blow 2 separate years on injury and still get 8 good years out of him by the time he turns 35. I’m all in on YY, whatever the cost.
I still maintain that the Dodgers do not yet have their opening day starter on the 40-man roster.
Farhan has to be in there. Can he really afford to lose another “star” not wanting to come to SF? The Dodgers want Ohtani, SF needs him.
Everything I’ve read intimates it’ll be Yamamoto to San Fran.
I am not sure where Heyman is hearing this since these meetings are supposed to be held in secret. Heyman may not always be right. but he doesn’t just make s*** up either.
Just to keep the AAV down to $50MM that would be a 12 year deal. If the owners did not want Ohtani as an investment, AF would have backed off by now. IMO, the Dodgers will be in it until the end. It could also be some level of gamesmanship from the other teams in the negotiations trying to drive up the cost knowing how much the LAD owners want Ohtani, and thus limiting the amount they can use for their actual needs.
If Ohtani does in fact hold off with an announcement for a week or two, the Dodgers could once again find the best FA and trades to be gone by the time Ohtani agrees. But that will not dissuade them from the Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty signings.
Nobody knows anything.
You do. You have already said unequivocally Gavin Stone is the #4 starter and ROY.
If he’s right about Stone, we’re gona be really really good in 2024.
Or have a helluva lot of injuries to our starters.
Oops, missed the ROY
nothing
If we turn our ears from idle fan speculation to what I hope is informed speculation:
Morosi:
Dylan Cease trade market is robust as the winter meetings begin in Nashville.
Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles are all involved, sources say, and other teams also remain engaged with the White Sox.
The Mariners and Rays are trade partners to watch in Nashville this week.
They have spoken about Isaac Paredes, as I reported earlier today.
Randy Arozarena is available, and it is believed his name has come up in different scenarios, as well.
Heyman:
Tons of trade interest in Tyler Glasnow. Not surprising.
Brewers are moving closer to a deal with Wade Miley. Would be 1 year.
Alek Manoah’s name has come up in Juan Soto trade talks with the Padres. Could be a good change of scenery guy.
Nope
For those who have been discussing potential third baseman, I’d like to throw another name into the hopper.
Mariners and Rays have discussed Isaac Paredes, who plays third, second and first but last year mostly third for the Rays. .250/.352/.488/.840 last year with 32 homers and 98 RBI. He’s a better fielder than Max and bats right handed. Next year will be his age 26 season and he has 4 years until free agency.
How about Isaac, Fred? Jeff D? Anyone?
Paredes will cost a fortune. No way the Mariners can swing him without deal that starts with Young and Ford and builds from there.
Why in the world would Tampa move him?
The Simulator says Cartaya, Sheehan and Busch or Vargas.
As to why Tampa would move him, I have no clue, but the story didn’t say that the Rays hung up on the Mariners. It said they discussed him.
Mind you, I’m not at all sure that I would do this trade from the Dodgers perspective, but it’s something to talk about in the month or two until Shohei decides his future home.
I’ve been trying to find information as to why Gelof moved to third. His scouting grades were:
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55
Also said on his scouting report:
Gelof’s supreme athleticism could lend to him playing multiple infield positions, though the A’s were impressed with his defense at third base, particularly his throwing arm, which had been a question mark entering the Draft due to some injuries. Also earning high praise for his confidence and presence in the clubhouse
Oakland, like KC, needs volume. The Dodgers have the volume, especially if they sign free agent pitchers instead of trading for them.
Then there is the Baseball America scouting report:
You can certainly pick and choose which one you like most. But I am going with where he is playing for Oakland.
While Dionysus may be right that none of us know anything, I feel very confident in predicting that Zack Gelof will be with Oakland to start the year, Witt will be with KC, and Muncy will be with the Dodgers.
If you place a bet and win on where those players play you will win a penny on every dollar you bet
Gelof’s supreme athleticism could lend to him playing multiple infield positions, though the A’s were impressed with his defense at third base, particularly his throwing arm, which had been a question mark entering the Draft due to some injuries.
I like Gelof, always have. I brought him up when nobody had heard of him. But he is not coming to the Dodgers, and he is not moving from 2B.
I latched on to him and haven’t let go ever since you first mentioned his name.
I saw the Paredes report. I have given up predicting what Tampa Bay will do. I think they are trying to find a way of keeping Glasnow. IMO they see Glasnow as being a better opportunity at winning in 2024.
Tampa Bay has uber prospect Junior Caminero ready to assume 3B for Paredes. They also have multiple other infielders MLB ready.
Jim Leland elected to the Hall of Fame, only one of 8 candidates to make the cut. Lou Pinella missed by one vote. Joe West one of five candidates who got less than 5 votes. 12 needed for election. The players side will be announced in January. USC to play Louisville in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Will Smith will love that.
First trade of the meetings went down a little while ago. The Atlanta Braves get Jarred Kelenic, Evan White, and Marco Gonzales from the Mariners for Jackson Kowar, Cole Phillips and cash. Braves are taking on 19.25 million in the salaries of Gonzales and White. Dodgers deal with Joe Kelly is for 8 million.
Seattle obviously dumping salary.
For who?
I now realize Paredes is arb eligible. Perhaps that why Tampa would move him?
Alex Anthopoulos has done it again. Atlanta needed a LF, and another SP. He trades a 27 year old RHRP (Jackson Kowar) with a 9.12 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in 74.0 IP and a 21 year old RHP drafted by the Braves in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. He did not pitch in 2023 due to recovering from TJ surgery. He has a 70 fastball and average secondary pitches and a 45 FV. And with those two, they got OF Jarred Kelenic, LHSP Marco Gonzalez, and 1B Evan White, plus cash. Kelenic (6th overall) and White (17th overall) were former 1st round draft picks. Neither have lived up to their expectations, although Kelenic started out well last year before breaking his foot kicking a water bucket in disgust. While not great, the Braves believe he will be an improvement over Eddie Rosario who became a FA after last year. He will be competing with Vaugn Grissom for the starting LF spot. Gonzalez will be a back of the rotation pitcher. They are still in on Cease. They did not offer any top prospect in this deal.
The Dodgers declined Joe Kelly’s option with a $1MM buyout and then guaranteed him $8MM. They did that to save $500K??? The Dodgers are now slightly $60MM under the CBT threshold according to Cots Contracts.
I believe it is a threshold be damned we need to win now year.
I hope you and the others are right. I am just skeptical. AF has never outbid anyone in FA except for Trevor Bauer. He made a game changing trade for Betts, and did so without knowing if Betts would look to extend. He had told anyone who would listen that he wanted to test FA. AF/owners said get it done, and they did. Will they do it again? I think the owners are waiting on Ohtani. If they sign him, how much will be available for elite starting pitching? Or how do they acquire that top RH bat for LF.
….”The Dodgers declined Joe Kelly’s option with a $1MM buyout and then guaranteed him $8MM. They did that to save $500K??? The Dodgers are now slightly $60MM under the CBT threshold according to Cots Contracts.”
I keep reading that Friedman is so much smarter than we are but really?
I cannot answer as to why this was done. I know he is a fan favorite, but there are a lot of fan favorites who are no longer with the Dodgers.
Getting my truck serviced this morning, heading for Los Angeles on Thursday.
Have a safe trip Bear. Tomorrow I’m driving up to the Solvang-Buellton area to celebrate my 75th with a friend, some great wine, food, and scenery. We’ll be cruising listening to the tunes you made up for me. Especially, looking forward to hearing some circa ’90’s Michael “Oldbear” Norris selections! Outstanding.
Might you drop in for some pea soup at Andersons?
That would be a negative. My Dad was born and raised in Buellton so I’ve visited the area dozens of times over the years eaten at Anderson’s many times. But, split pea soup won’t be on my menu this trip!
Cool brother. I will be at my sis’s house until about the 28th. Planning on heading out to Riverside to jam with some OLD friends on the 22nd.
The Dodgers can build a very good team without spending $600 million on Ohtani or $200 million on Yamamoto, Snell or Montgomery.
Homegrown players who have sacrificed for the Dodgers like Seager, Pederson, Bellinger, Ryu, and Turner are let go instead of extending and without getting any trade value. And now they are considering paying Ohtani a guaranteed $600 million, when they will only guarantee Walker Buehler $8 million for 2024 before he becomes a free agent. Buehler is the same age as Ohtani and has been a better pitcher in the MLB. Buehler has a career record of 46-16 and era of 3.02. Plus he has been great in the postseason with a 2.94 era and Dodgers are 10-6 in his starts. Depending on his medicals, it would be wise to extend Buehler now to give him some insurance while retaining him in a cost effective manner. He has gone to battle for the Dodgers and helped them win divisions, pennants and a World Series title. Reward your own guys first.
Some more thoughts on the Ohtani situation. It’s been written that Ohtani wants to win and money isn’t important to him. That, obviously, that’s not the case or he would have signed with the Dodgers already.
For what amount? Let’s say it’s the $600MM figure that’s currently being thrown around. The caveat? It’s for 15 years with approx $150MM deferred for years 16-30. That should give the Dodgers baseball’s best player at a CBT number that would allow them some them additional financial flexibility to further improve the team. This would give Ohtani his desire to play for a championship and generational wealth yearly through age 60. Something like this would be something I could go for. Not that that makes any difference. Lol.
Carry on.
Happy 75th!
Thanks Bobby. Damn 75. Who would of thunk?
Atlanta now being included in Ohtani rumors. If he wants to win and hit in a home run park……
I have for a long time wanted Chris Archer to be a Dodger. Well, finally it has happened.
The Dodgers have hired Chris Archer as a special assistant in their baseball operations department, as the righty himself tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It doesn’t seem as though he has a clearly defined role as of yet, telling Mackey that he’s sampling a few different things.
Chris Archer – Another reason you do not like to trade with Tampa Bay. One of the players coming to TB, other than Glasnow, was Austin Meadows. They traded Meadows to Detroit for Isaac Paredes. Shane Baz also came to TB in the trade, and if he can ever stay healthy, will become a fixture in their rotation. In a 3-team trade they sent Jake Bauers to Cleveland and cash to Seattle for Yandy Diaz. Randy Arozarena to St. Louis for Matthew Liberatore. They do very well with trades. Do well in the International Market. Draft well. They are a well run organization.
This is an interesting list :
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/home-runs?sort=no_doubters&sortDir=desc
Atlanta’s stadium is middle of the pack as far as home run metrics. So is Dodger Stadium. Stadiums that aren’t? Yankee Stadium and Angel Stadium.
I still believe Friedman will do what is necessary to keep the Dodgers at the top of the list in wins and entertainment value. Though for opposite reasons, along with Jeff, I too am prepared to eat crow if Friedman gets shut out this off season.
Shut out?
What does that mean? Not sign Ohtani? Not sign anyone?
Figure of speech Bluto. Means not moving forward to me.
JJ Piccolo (KC GM) is looking for SP. They are not shopping in the same arena as are the Dodgers, Giants, NYY, NYM…But he did say, Bobby Witt king Jr. is the face of the franchise and is not going anywhere. They know he is special but they intend to hold onto him as long as they can. They are working on getting an extension. Piccolo says they know what is important to Witt, and they are moving forward
Mike Hazen says he wanted Eugenio Suarez for his glove as much as his bat. They also like his leadership. Hazen has said that he is looking at SP and a veteran bat. He brought up that Arizona started four 23 year old players in October. The name mentioned and keeps getting mentioned is JD Martinez.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be traveling to the US this week for face to face meetings. I assume there will be coast to coast travels. Unless he gets overwhelmed, I would not expect Yamamoto to sign until closer to Christmas.
John Mozeliak says they will be trading one of their OF this Winter. He said they are looking for relievers. Tyler O’Neill is getting a lot of attention. He can’t seem to stay healthy, but if he can replicate 2021 he is going to help someone. They are not trading Lars Nootbaar or Jordan Walker. That leaves Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Tyler O’Neill.
Jung Hoo Lee will be posted today. He is in play for a lot of teams.
Dodgers have to hope that San Diego is not successful in trading Juan Soto. If they are, they look to be all in on Corbin Burnes. We know A.J. Preller will not be outspent prospect wise for a player he wants. Merrill, Snelling, and Lesko are all potentially available. 17 year old catcher Ethan Salas is probably the only untouchable for Preller.
Whit Merrifield has no problem driving a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs with an out. He said that is his job to drive in the run. He indicated that he is not the guy who has a runner on 3rd and goes 0-2 because they did not like the pitch. He does not like that approach, and does not appreciate players like that. He prefers 2B, but understands that versatility is part of his game. He said he likes to hit with RISP and says he has done well in that role. I checked…WRISP he slashed .295/.351/.459/.810 with 375 RBI in 860 AB. WRISP and 2 out – .280/.365/.440/.804. If you prefer slug and OPS, Merrifield is not your guy. If you prefer good bat to ball skills, and the guy who is willing to give himself up, Merrifield could be your guy. I have always loved Merrifield’s game. The Dodgers could do much worse than to look at Whit Merrifield. I doubt they look at him with CT3 and Miggy Ro already on the roster. Whit is a good throwback baseball player.
I too have always loved his game. It doesn’t come across as sexy or stat popping, but his type of at bats are what wins tight playoff games (something we may possibly need help in)
For those following at home, the trade simulator APPROVES the Braves/Mariners trade!
Gonzalez, Kelenic, White and Cash comes to about 3
Cole Phillips is 3.2 (other Mariner acquisitions are nil)
Doc just stated on MLB tv that Mookie Betts will be his every day second baseman.
Hooooorah!!!!!
My first reaction to this was:
Platoon in right.
Vargas and Busch either learn to play left or are headed by train to Tradesville.
or throw them at 3b? I actually liked how Busch looked at 3b (of course, in comparison to Muncy’s defense)
Doc indicated that JDM might be in play if they don’t get Ohtani so that would also leave Max at 3B. That’s assuming JD is willing to wait for Ohtani’s decision before signing, which I imagine he will.
I can’t see any way that at least one of the two (Vargas or Busch) wouldn’t be included in a trade for a pitcher. If Mookie’s at 2B and Max at 3B, that drastically cuts down playing spots for the other two.
My first reaction was, well, frankly, no surprise there.
Vargas and Busch are both taking 100 fungoes a day at second, third, and left field. I figure one or both, along with 2 minor league pitchers will be traded.
I hear Dodger officials hype Vargas non-stop. I think, pure speculation, they’d like to keep him.
Busch, IMO, as good as gone.
With his projected power, I think Busch would bring more back in a trade, even though he is older. Vargas has always been hyped by LAD officials. Same with Cartaya.
I agree. Vargas has been hyped for his bat to ball skills for years. He would have stuck had it not been for broken bones. Busch has done all he can in minor league ball. It’s time he played in the Majors. Vargas in left? Makes sense I suppose but my gut still tells me third base. We won’t know how any of this shakes down until Ohtani commits.
To play Devil’s Advocate, he did not have broken bones the year before. At OKC, Busch had a .431 OBP and a SLG of .618, all with a 18.8% K rate. Vargas had .407 OBP and a .479 SLG while striking out at 20% K rate. It certainly appears that Busch’s bat to ball skills are at least as good as Vargas’, and his SLG is much better. But Busch is LHH DH, and Vargas is RH hitter. IMO, that gives him an up in the Dodgers focus. I hope he ends up with a team that can hide him in LF if he cannot play 1B. As you said, he has nothing left to prove in MiLB, and he would be wasted on the LAD bench.
Busch is also 3-4 years older than Vargas
Busch is just about 2 years older. Busch – 11-9-97 and Vargas 11-17-99. I do not think age will be a significant factor. A factor, yes, But not significant. I think it will come down to which team will consider one over the other and give the better return. More succinctly, what level of secondary players in the package. As an example only, not based on anything…Busch and Bruns or Vargas and Frasso.
Heyward will man RF and bat against RHP.
Brewers signed LHSP Wade Miley to a 1 year $7MM contract, with a $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout, with incentives. They also signed former RHP Joe Ross who sat out most of 2023 receiving from his 2nd TJ surgery. 1st round draft pick by San Diego in 2011. Long time member of the Nationals. Was part of that huge 3 team trade with San Diego, Washington, and Tampa Bay that also included Trea Turner also going from San Diego to Washington.
It sure looks like Milwaukee is at least going to start the season trying to see how they compete in the vert winnable NL Central.
Apparently the Braves are looking to flip Marco Gonzalez. I would imagine he would be included in the package looking for a front line starter. I wonder how CWS feels about Marco.
The reports are still out there that the Dodgers could be looking to upgrade at SS. The Dodgers had their shot at a long time SS with Seager and Turner and said no. Lux was given the job. I do not see how you tell Lux he is not the SS over Willy Adames or Jorge Mateo (Baltimore) or Tim Anderson (FA). You have to give Lux a season to prove himself…right?
And he has to make it as a SS as Dave Roberts has said that Mookie will be the everyday 2B. Now the Dodgers need 2 corner OF. Everywhere else is solid for the position players.
I agree wholeheartedly. People are condemning him before he even gets a season to prove himself. He and Mookie will make a pretty sweet DP combo.
For those interested in such things, courtesy of Codify:
Highest percentage of plate appearances ending in a home run, walk, or strikeout (qualified hitters in 2023):
Kyle Schwarber, 53.9%
Jack Suwinski, 51.1%
James Outman, 48.0%
Brent Rooker, 47.7%
Max Muncy, 47.3%
Shohei Ohtani, 46.4%
yikes
Just think, Fred. If we sign Ohtani, we’ll have half of the 6 on our roster.
Doesn’t concern me in the least.
OPS. Embrace it.
Haven’t we learned anything from the last two NLDS. A high OPS in the regular season means diddly-squat when you cannot drive in runs in the post season.
Hitting WRISP – embrace it.
Ohtani – WRISP – .317/.475/.604/1.079 – WRISP w/2 outs – .220/.458/.317/.775
Outman – WRISP – .260/.355/.425/.781 – WRISP w/2 outs – .236/.364/.382/.745
Muncy – WRISP – .199/.345/.391/.736 – WRISP w/2 outs – .134/.284/.269/.553
Muncy can build up his OPS with the bases empty, but it is what he does with RISP that needs to improve.
He does not have the slug, but give me Whit Merrifield up with the game on the line vs Max Muncy. Someone not afraid of getting a runner in from 3rd even if he has to give himself up. I think Merrifield was talking about the Max Muncy’s who take 2 strikes with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs because he did not like the pitch.
Erick Fedde is nearing a 2 year deal with an unknown team. I brought his name up before as someone who intrigues me. He has always had good stuff, just could not put it all together with the Nationals. He went to the KBO (NC Dinos) and flat out dominated. 180.1 IP, 2.00 ERA, 29.5% K rate and less than 5.0% BB rate. The intrigue? Merrill Kelly left as a mediocre pitcher to KBO and came back to MLB with Arizona and is now dominating MLB. He did not pitch nearly as well in his four years in the KBO as Fedde did in his one. He is expected to surpass $5MM annually. This is a low risk high reward type pitcher.
I can hear it now. AF has his face up against Shohei’s and says “You sign now or we’re going with Fedde!” 😂
Sounds like something tailor made for AF.
It is believed that NYM and CWS are the two finalists for Fedde. I will be watching to see how he pitches this year. Very low risk with a potential high reward. AF needs more of a sure thing, even in the #4/#5 spot.