It has been a miserable December so far. The trip out was painful, then having to go to the hospital and end up getting surgery was worse. But there was a silver lining. The Dodgers extended Edman, signed Snell and Conforto and are starting to assemble next year’s roster.
I had a feeling that Kike would not be back, and I still do. Hudson and Kiermaier retired. Logue signed overseas, Lipcius cut loose. I am holding out hope for Teo, I really like the guy. I doubt AF would pivot to Santander because he has a QO. AF does not want to lose international money. Only 1 roster spot left. Some second tier OF’s who have been mentioned are falling off of the board.
One big surprise was Rancho being sold, and the new low A team will be in a brand-new ballpark in Ontario. Guys like Profar, Canha, Hays, Winker, Grichuk are all out there. One who intrigues me a lot, Dylan Carlson. Only 26 years old.
I am sure AF will have a surprise or two for us. But for now, I am just glad I can get back on my computer. I am still hoping they get at least one good starting pitcher and a solid hitting RF.
I am less sure Teo comes back, but not totally thrilled with some of the replacements Rosenthal suggested. Suzuki would be my first choice. I cannot stand Profar. But whatever AF decides, I am down with.
Welcome back, Bear. It is an early Christmas present.
I wanted to get Bear’s post published ASAP. Per Phil Jones request, I will have my post of the Cohen Tax published tomorrow.
Glad your back Bear !
Merry Christmas !!
Prayers for healing !!!
Hey Bear. Glad to here you are feeling somewhat better and are on the road to recovery. Hang in there.
I too think AF probably has somethings cooking and some surprises up his sleeve.
Welcome back Bear. Glad that you are healing
Oh a outfield of Conforto in leftfield and Edman in Centerfield and Dylan Carlson in right field doesn’t seem to strike fear in other teams. Now hear me out wouldn’t it be better to go like this Conforto leftfield Edman Centerfield and Mookie Betts in rightfield with Muncy at thirdbase Bichette at shortstop and Lux at second base and Freeman at first with will smith at Catcher now that sounds like a LA Dodgers team with Ohtani Dh and pitching if AF does any moves it woild be to trade for bichette and get an every day shortstop and then Rojas edman or lux can play second base and all you have to do is send Mookie back to rightfield all to make your outfield better then a Conforto edman Carlson outfield.
Where did the name Dylan Carlson come from? Is he rumored to be either on the block or favoured by the Dodgers?
Did I miss something?
26 year old free agent at this time. Pure CF.
I think he’s a free agent. He had a very good rookie season in ’21 for the Cards, but it’s been downhill since, including a .564 OPS last season.
Maybe a minor-league contract?
I’m warming to the idea of Seiya Suzuki if Teo moves on.
What would the Cubs want?
Bradley – yes, it would be better. But I still anticipate further moves will be made to address this issue.
Ain’t happening. Mookie is not going back to the outfield frankly because he doesn’t WANT to AND because I feel certain it sticks in his craw that people think he coudn’t handle shortstop. Bichette ain’t getting traded to the Dodgers….at least not before the trade deadline.
In 2020, Keekay signed a $5.9m deal with us. The next offseason he signed a 2y/$14m contract with Boston, eventually getting a $10m third year added, halfway through which was traded back here. He then signed a $4m deal for 2024.
He’s a great guy to have on the team. I’d want him back for one year.
Score another one for the Trade Value Simulator WRT the Jesus Lazardo trade:
Phillies $22.7
Marlins $23.1
Hey Bear glad to see you back I dont think much happens til after holidays take care and happy holidays
Hope your recovery goes well. Who did your surgery?
You’re right we only have 1 40 man spot left. 3 more spots will open up when Ryan,Stone and Sheehan move to the 60 day IL. That could mean F/ G make agreements with players and just don’t sign them until then. But other than an outfielder do they need to add another fielder?(Kike). Or do they add more depth.
Surgery was at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center in Carson. VA was full so they sent me there.
Joc to the Rangers – 2 years $37m
With a 1 year opt out. Reunited with Cory Seager
That is a hefty number for Joc. Happy for him.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
. 908 ops last year.
Good for you Joc! You deserve it!
And Buehler to the Red Sox
If WB wasn’t after a multi-year deal after all perhaps he should still be a Dodger on a one year deal for 2025.
Wondering if the IL stint to FLA to work out with non Dodger affiliated trainers pissed AF/BG off.
I think it is more reflective as to how Buehler felt about the Dodgers. I thought all along that he would leave. I think that Buehler signing for the exact amount of the QO is a statement. I also do not think that those multi-year offers were ever there. For someone with his arm injury history, a multi-year deal should have been taken, if one was offered.
At least he is going to my 2nd favorite team.
I hate to see him go but he may have been a victim of a numbers game. The Dodgers have, at least on paper, a lot of starting pitchers; and it may have come down to Sasaki vs Buehler in the end. Guess we will no more by Jan 15th.
I was at the opening night of the Rancho Quakes stadium (can’t remember the year but sometime in mid 90s), I believe they were a SanDiego affiliate then. That was a nice little park to see a game.
Sad to see Buehler leaving the Dodgers.
47-22 W-L, 3.27 ERA, 713.2 IP, 754 SO, 12.2 WAR.
I think that’s around the QO #. Really good fit given the BoSox rotation depth.
Do years on IR count towards pension vestment?
It is not around the QO, it is the QO. Yes, days on the IL count towards ML service time, which counts toward pension vesting.
Happy for Joc and Walker. Will miss Buehler. So many great, clutch moments in big games. Just loved his fierce attitude. Love for him to have a great bounce back season and sign a big deal next year. Thanks for the memories Walker!
Looks like it’s bw us and Toronto again for Teo and us and Boston for Scott.
Cmon AF, you want to keep us fans happy, then sign them both.
Walker will always be a Dodger in the eyes of the fans.
Without him we probably do not win in 2020 and 2024. Both playoffs he was instrumental in the Dodgers wining it all. One of the best big game pitchers in Dodgers history IMHO. Thank you Walker!
It looks to me as if the Dodgers are pretty sure Sasaki will sign with them. Otherwise I would think they could and would have matched that contract offer.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think a Jessie Winker leftfield and Edman in centerfield and Conforto Iin rightfield with Taylor and Pages as platoon sound more like a Dodgers outfield and Teo will go to Boston do they go after Kim then to be shortstop and Betts play second base.
Why so many assumptions that the Dodgers did not give Walker Buehler a legit offer? Why are so many so quick to blame the Dodgers if one of their free agents does not re-sign with the team? I have no idea what the Dodgers’ offer may have been after not offering the QO, or even if there was one. But one thing is for sure, Buehler would have cost LAD $44.205MM. I doubt the Dodgers believed Walker was worth that level of commitment.
I know some believe the Dodgers should just have signed him because of his October numbers. A clutch pitcher to be sure. But after the disaster game against SD, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was very good in the playoffs. Blake Snell has also been a clutch playoff pitcher. We have no idea what Shohei Ohtani can do as a pitcher in the playoffs. IMO, the Dodgers pitchers will be fine in the playoffs.
I think the same is true with Teoscar. Because it is the AAV that determines the competitive balance tax, the Dodgers want to keep the AAV down. We have no idea what offer the Dodgers have made to Teoscar. But I am sure that it does involve deferrals, and that is something that Teo does not want. And I do not think he will have to. Toronto will probably give him the years and $$$ he wants, without deferrals.
I may be in the minority, but if Teo does not sign with LAD, I will not assume the Dodgers made the mistake. They have a player budget amount that they are willing to assume the 110% tax for, and if the player wants to exceed that amount, AF is comfortable walking away. Does it have to be one side’s fault? Why can’t it be that the two sides just could not come to terms, even if the gap is miniscule in the fan’s eye. I can read it now. How could the Dodgers let Teo leave because they would not go from $60MM to $66MM?
It could also be true that AF had an amount he was willing to sign Teo for, but he was just as comfortable giving Andy Pages and James Outman a clearer path to succeed. With that being said, I do want the Dodgers to re-sign Teo, but I will understand if they do not.
I think the same will be true when the bidding for Tanner Scott begins in earnest. The Dodgers have a formula which they seem to follow for relievers. If Scott signs for 4 years and $56MM elsewhere, in my opinion AF would not be comfortable with that amount (probably years and $$$) and perhaps he believes he has a bullpen that can do more than just compete as it is.
Sometimes AF knows what he is doing.
I don’t understand why you say that signing Buehler would have cost the Dodgers $44.205 million.
Can you explain?
If the Dodgers and Teo can’t come to terms, I don’t think the brass will stand pat. I expect a pivot to another player, either through a trade or the free agent market. A deal for Robert would be exciting; a deal for Suzuki would be solid. Signing Profar would be interesting if only to stick it to the Padres.
If they can’t find an agreeable trade, then of all the free agents Ha Seong Kim might make the most sense because (A) he’s the best SS option on the market and (B) expanding the team’s appeal in South Korea doesn’t hurt.
The Dodgers are at 110% luxury tax. For every salary $$$ they spend past $301MM, they have to pay 110% luxury tax. Walker signs for $21.05MM, the luxury tax is $23.155MM, thus a total payroll cost of $44.205. I have to assume that the luxury tax calculation goes into the decision making for any player.
Competitive Balance Tax. Dodgers are at the highest level. Something like 110%.
Curious questions about the Dodgers and budget:
How did offering Soto $600M figure in to that budget? Because AF wasn’t serious about Soto like he wasn’t serious about Harper. Why does he even waste the time? It wasn’t because he was trying to drive up the price; there were plenty of other teams involved to do that.
As for the outfield, Teo is not coming back because the Dodgers are demanding he take deferrals on his contract (can’t blame him). As for replacements Robert Jr. is not worth what the Sox think he is; his history proves that, Suzuki is not going to be traded, and Ha-Seong Kim is a joke. Should we assume that the Dodgers outfield is already on the roster?
So, in essence, is having massive deferrals on contracts the only way AF adds anyone worthwhile to the roster?
They offered Soto like they offered Harper as a “just in case” the price dropped to something they were comfortable with. Undoubtedly less than .0005% chance. If you want Bora$ clients, a high revenue team like the Dodgers at least has to get into the bidding, even if they know they will not win. You at least have to make an offer. Soto does not have the marketing cache that Ohtani has so he probably is not worth the $600MM to the Dodgers that they offered.
Perhaps the Dodgers are hoping that Corbin Burnes drops to their liking and he signs a deal with LAD similar to what Snell signed with SF.
Deferrals are a tool to drive the AAV down. At 110% tax, the lower the AAV the lower the total payroll costs are for the Dodgers. Even with the deferrals, the Dodgers AAV payroll is at $335MM. If they were to sign Teo and Tanner Scott at their projected AAV, that would take their AAV payroll to $372MM before Kershaw. That extra $37MM to the AAV would be $77.7MM in actual $$$. Does anyone think the Dodgers can sustain an AAV north of $350MM? The Dodgers are not going to get better control of the payroll until they start allowing the kids to play regularly. Maybe that is what AF/BG is doing this year with Pages and Outman in the OF and Lux at 2B.
With respect to Ha-Seong Kim, I do not share your opinion that he is joke. He is an average offensive player with a career 99 OPS+ and a GG infielder. For his 4 years as a Padre, Kim had 15.3 bWAR (average 3.825). He had enough MVP votes in 2023 to land at #14. You may not want him as a LAD, but he is not a joke.
As I have said numerous times, I am fine with the Dodgers going into the season with the OF they presently have. Can it be improved? Sure, but at what cost? Do the Dodgers have to have All Stars in the OF with 5 of the other 6 players in the lineup each having multiple All Star appearances. Betts and Freddie (8X), Shohei (4X), Muncy and Smith (2X). With their projected rotation and bullpen, IMO the Dodgers are in good shape without having to add All Stars to the OF.
Didn’t word the Kim and joke sentence well at all! My apologies. I respect anyone who is fortunate enough to play in the big leagues. I meant it’s hard to believe that the Dodgers would want him when they have players like him already in Taylor and Edman and they need a run producing outfielder.
“and Ha-Seong Kim is a joke”.
In 4 years he has averaged 3.1 WAR per.
“Should we assume that the Dodgers outfield is already on the roster?”
I don’t
“So, in essence, is having massive deferrals on contracts the only way AF adds anyone worthwhile to the roster?”
Maybe just those who want a shot at a championship.
I think we should assume you have a great deal of rigid thinking.
Good luck to Buehler. Frankly I was a bit surprised he got $21M. I thought he would go for $12-15M. The competitive balance tax the Dodgers have to pay really hurts.
If the Dodgers sign Kim–as Rosenthal suggests could happen–I would interpret it as a sign that the brass is a bit nervous about Mookie at SS.
It’s not hard to imagine a mid-season move that shifts Mookie to 2B and shifts Lux to another team.
All considered, I think Kim is a better fit on the roster than Lux. Would love to have Kike back, but Kim would be the superior option at SS.
The Dodgers may still move Lux in a package for Suzuki or Robert or ???
I would have zero reservations to LAD signing Ha-Seong Kim.
Nor do I.
I’m a huge Ha Seong Kim fan, and I would love to have him. Bat him 9th, and let him win a gold glove wherever he plays.
👏
I mean the Dodgers aren’t the best organization in baseball by blind luck and lack of processes.
Congrats to Walker Buehler, off to Boston for $21.05 million. By matching the QO the Red Sox are able to retain their draft pick. The Red Sox don’t play in LA in ’25, but Buehler may pitch against the Dodgers at Fenway. No doubt those traveling Dodgers fans will give him a big ovation.
And in Ricky Henderson news, I loved this anecdote:
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes about Henderson’s legacy, including a story from former Seattle Mariner and current MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds.
Boy am I out of the loop, what happened with your back Bear?
Not my back, infection and gout in my ankle. Had emergency surgery.