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Who Will Be the Next Scapegoat

I had been away from my computer since last Friday.  While I had my computer with me, I was not able to access my dashboard until late Tuesday.  Because I was enjoying South Lake Tahoe, I did not turn my computer on until Tuesday. That is when I saw the changes to the comment section, and I immediately contacted the site administrator.

They are installing multiple plugins into my program, and that is what is creating some of the visible changes.  All of the plugins are supposed to be installed by this weekend.  I will call on Friday to get an update.

 

Now for my baseball take.

 

When I did start to read the comments, I noticed a lot of negative Michael Conforto and negative Max Muncy comments.  BTW, I am fine with the negative takes, but I do not like the change of names to “Concrappo”.  It is just childish and belittles the point the commenter was trying to make.

There is no denying that Conforto has been terrible his first two months in a LAD uniform.  Does that mean it will continue throughout the season?  There is very little evidence in his career that it will happen.  His career splits show he hits better the 2nd half than the 1st, and July through September have been his best months.  He has stated that things are starting to click.

OTOH, Max has been relatively consistent over the seasons.

However both Conforto and Max are showing signs of turning the corner.

  • Conforto – Last 14 games, 54 PA, .267/.389/.444/.833
  • Muncy – Last 17 games, 72 PA, .281/.389/.474/.863

Neither Conforto or Muncy were expected to carry the team or play at the elite level.  But Mookie Betts was/is expected to play at that elite level, and he hasn’t.

  • Mookie – Last 18 games, 87 PA, .247/.322/.377/.698 – Mookie has never had a season with a sub .800 OPS. Mookie will have to be voted on to the All Star team, because he is not playing at an All Star level.  He is 13th in OPS for all MLB SS, 15th in BA, and 11th

Without Shohei, Freddie, and Will Smith, the offense would be in serious trouble.  But the offense is one of the top 2 offenses in MLB (with NYY).  So that is not the problem.  They are #2 in runs scored, second only to Cubs.

Now the pitching is a different story.  The injuries to the staff has been discussed ad nauseum.  But the problem is the dismal year thus far from the relievers.  Many on this site were ecstatic with the signing of LHRP Tanner Scott.  And yet it is easy to pick on Conforto and his $17MM ONE year contract, and want to ignore Scott and his $18MM contract for FOUR years.

  • Scott – 26 games, 0-1, 10 saves, 5 blown saves, 28K, 3BB, 4 HR

One can analyze his metrics this year compared to prior years and it is not a pretty picture.  One change that seems like it should be a positive is his 2.2% BB rate, while the previous best BB rate was 7.8% in 2023, and no other season had a rate less than 11.68%.  Combined with the factors enumerated below, and the decrease in the BB rate starts to lose its luster.  He is throwing more hittable strikes.

  • Average exit velo is 90.5 MPH. Only once has it been more velo; 91.5 on 2019.

 

  • Hardest hit % – 46.2% – Hardest of his career.

 

  • 28% K rate, 3rd lowest in his career.

 

  • Ground ball % – 42.2%, lowest in his career.

 

  • HR/Fly Ball % – 19%, 2nd worst in his career

 

  • Launch Angle Sweet Spot and XWOBA (expected weighted on base average) – 2nd highest in career

 

  • XBA (expected Batting Average) and XSLG (expected slugging average) – highest in his career

As a team, only one team has blown more saves than the Dodgers (12), Boston with 14 blown saves.  26.5% inherited runners have scored.  That % along with the blown saves is not a championship bullpen.

Sure, we can deservedly place a lot of blame on a $17MM LF.  But three relievers (Scott, Yates, and Treinen), have had horrid seasons (2 with injuries) compared to what was expected, and they have a committed cost of $107MM, and a 2025 cost of $42MM.

There is almost 2/3 of a season to go.  There is a very good possibility that Conforto, Max, Mookie, and Tanner Scott will all have turn around seasons.

However, they are in the middle of their toughest stretch in the season…29 games in 31 days all against teams with a winning record.  They also have 3 against the Nationals at the end of that stretch, making it a total of 32 games in 34 days.  That will take the team through June 22, about 5 weeks before trade deadline.  It is also projected that Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell should be ready to return about that time or within a couple weeks after.

Ohtani is projected to pitch after the All-Star Break.  Michael Kopech has had a couple of good rehab outings.  Henriquez started his throwing program.  Roki Sasaki will start his throwing program next week.  Emmet Sheehan has started his rehab, but the Dodgers will take their time with him.  Kirby Yates and his grade 1 hamstring strain?  Evan Phillips might be a way’s out.  The Dodgers are not going to do a thing until they know what they need, and that means waiting for Snell, Glasnow, Kopech, Henriquez, Sheehan, and Sasaki.  They will also wait to see if Kershaw will continue to improve.  BTW, it looks like Justin Wrobleski might be following the Ben Casparius route…as a reliever.

I trust AF/BG will do whatever they need to do to keep the team in the race.  If things go right, the 2nd half of the season should be the team in great shape.  So feel free to find a daily scapegoat for when they lose again.  The Dodgers are 5-4 in the first 9 games of the 29-game stretch.  Their next 20 games in 21 days beginning Friday:

  • NYY – 3 (Home)
  • NYM – 4 (Home)
  • Louis – 3 (Away)
  • San Diego – 3 (Away)
  • SFG – 3 (Home)
  • San Diego – 4 (Home)

The team will need all hands-on deck for the next 20 games.  I will have my rose-colored glasses on.  The Dodgers will still be a strong contender at the end of the 20 games, and then the pitching picture will come into better focus.  I am sticking with this team, including Michael Conforto, Max Muncy, and Tanner Scott.

 

MiLB GAMES 

I will have a writeup on Thursday.

Las Vegas Aviators (A’s) 8 – OKC Comets 2

Box Score

 

Tulsa Drillers 10 – Wichita Wind Surge (Twins) 7 – 10 innings

Box Score

 

Great Lakes Loons 10 – Ft. Wayne Tin Caps (San Diego) 1

Players with big games include Wyat Crowell, Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Joe Vetrano, and Nelson Quiroz

Box Score

 

Modesto Nuts (Seattle) 8 – Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5

Box Score

 

 

Jeff Dominique

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Scott Andes
22 days ago

You’re right Jeff, my apologies. The name calling wasn’t very mature of me. I’ll stop doing it.

The main issue is the weak pitching staff, not Confortos or Muncys struggles. They have to improve the pitching staff or they are going to fall out of the race. They are barely treading water in the standings due to the poor pitching.

dodgerram
dodgerram
22 days ago

Muncy is a butcher at 3b this season. Yes, that ball took a bit of a weird bounce but he should have gotten at least one out.
Don´t get it why Doc did not stick with Kike and his glove late in the game.

Scott is concerning. Big time. With all the other high leverage guys on the IL this bullpen needs him desperately to be the lock down guy they pay him to be.

Kopech got hit again yesterday at OKC. Not a reliable option at this stage of his return from injury. I fear Friedman pretty soon to do what he dislikes: Deal for a high leverage guy for the stretch run.

Sirota and George have not played for GL in a few days now. Injured ?

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago
Reply to  dodgerram

He would have gotten an out if it was a clean play, but it wasn’t. He didn’t butcher that ball, it was scalded. I bet even Arenado would not have fielded that ball cleanly. Why get hung up on one play? How about not sending Scott back to the mound after he sat down? Sirota got a one-day blow. Not sure why George is not playing. And they had no games on Monday. Sitota last played on Sunday.

norcaldodgerfan
21 days ago
Reply to  Michael Norris

SCALDED??????? The boxscore says the exit velocity was 84.3 MPH, hardly a “rocket or scalded” ground ball.

I appreciate all that you do for the blog, but your “rose colored glasses” when it comes to being critical of a player is a bridge too far. No reason to defend the indefensible. Muncy’s game is suspect both offensively and defensively and it is on full display nightly. I think another blog poster on another site says “even Ray Charles” can see that.

Time to come to the realization that some players don’t age gracefully and their game might not be what it use to be. Muncy has been a good Dodger but it seems almost every ball hit to him is an adventure. Not good.

I suspect you might ask who would I suggest as a replacement and quite frankly I have no idea that’s AF’s job to figure that out. I’m just a fan and it’s my job to pay for the MLBTV package, or $40.00 to park a car, pay $30.00 for a beer and hot dog at Dodger Stadium and then expect much better play……………. that’s all.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

I watched the game, did not read the box score. It was hit a lot harder than it looked, and it took a weird bounce. No rose-colored glasses at all. I saw the play. Yes, I get that Max is not Brooks Robinson over there. And fans are going to gripe every time he misses one. But that loss is on the pitchers more than it is on Muncy. He had no shot to throw anyone out. Ball was ruled a hit, so the Official scorer disagrees that he could have made a play. Hard for Ray Charles to see anything, he has been dead for years. You see things your way, and I see them differently. Max will either get better with the bat or he won’t, and the Dodgers will be forced to deal with it. If your dumb enough to pay 30 bucks for a frippen beer, I would think your judgement is pretty screwed up.

Last edited 21 days ago by Michael Norris
Norcaldodgerfan
21 days ago
Reply to  Michael Norris

That was a beer and hot dog. Read carefully and thoroughly. Nothing like a beer and a hot dog at Blue Heaven on Earth.

No need for the personal attacks that behavior is reserved for another Dodger blog.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Still way too much, and the attack was simply that spending that much money on even beer and a dog is not really smart. If that offends you, well sorry. Just think it brings your judgement into serious question. I could pay for parking and a box seat ticket to a Quakes game for that much. You worry about your behavior, and not about others.

Last edited 21 days ago by Michael Norris
Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

Read one today that suggested, why I do not know, that they were targeting Ryan McMahon of the Rockies. Doubt the Rocks would trade him to the Dodgers. They really do not like LA. McMahon is just a slight upgrade defensively, but he is hitting just .206 with 6 homers.

dodgerram
dodgerram
22 days ago

Dodgers need back 2 out of 4: Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, Sheehan.
Need back at least 3 out of: Treinen, Phillipps, Yates, Kopech, Hernandez, Graterol.

ASAP.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last edited 22 days ago by dodgerram
Badger
Badger
21 days ago

Welcome back Jeff. Hope your Lake Tahoe trip was relaxing. I used to spend time every summer on the North Shore years ago. Loved it there.

Fortunately for the Dodgers nobody in the West has been hot lately. Last night. As I mentioned, everything hit against Scott was on the ground. If they were hit at somebody Scott is out of the inning. And IF Muncy. In my opinion the loss was on Vesia. That home run he gave up was Game Over as the Dodgers just fizzled in the 9th.

Muncy at third is a weak spot. I’d still rather see Betts at second. His range is ok at short and lucky for him he has 6’5” Freddie Freeman at first vacuuming up his errant throws. Is the energy he’s put in at a new demanding position the reason for his bat not working? Some of us questioned that early.

Pages showed last night he belongs in left. Maybe something of a platoon with he and Conforto.

I too am a bit concerned about Edman.

As you say, this upcoming stretch against good teams will be demanding. And will this team be a .500 club until the deadline? That certainly looks like a possibility.

Jeff
Jeff
21 days ago
Reply to  Badger

Perhaps Mookie is struggling to regain all his power from the illness that sidelined him in the beginning of the season. He lost a lot of weight and I’m sure he was demoralized by the slow process of recovery from that stomach problem.

Dionysus
Dionysus
21 days ago

Too much talent not to figure it out. Dave Roberts can earn his paycheck this season.

dodgerram
dodgerram
21 days ago
Reply to  Dionysus

He earned it last season for sure.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!

Sam Oyed
Sam Oyed
21 days ago

Late innings with the lead should have an outfield of Pages, Edman, Hernandez and an infield with Hernandez at 3rd and Kim at second.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Not concerned about Tommy Tanks at all. Just off of the IL, it will take him a little time to get back up to speed. Hasn’t affected his defense at all. Roberts should not have sent Scott back to the mound. Whenever he has pitched more than 3 outs, he has been ineffective. They signed Stratton and he hasn’t pitched a single inning. More concerned that the Dodger staff is second in home runs allowed this year.

tedraymond
tedraymond
21 days ago

Wow! What a discouraging loss yesterday. Between bad luck and poor execution the game quickly turned in Cleveland’s favor.

Unfortunately, Scott was a victim of some poor defense and weak contact that found their way through the infield. To put a cherry on top Vesia came in and grooved a fastball that was quickly deposited onto the left field stands. Vesia has had a problem with his fastball location so far this year which has lead to seven HRs. That’s is a career high for him (in 66 innings). He’s on pace to give up 20+ HR’s this year. But, that should not happen as he will probably not be on the team.

AF has to be very frustrated with the pitching situation so far this season. Snell has been able to pitch only nine innings. Sasaki needs some much needed development to learn how to be a pitcher and not just a hard thrower. Even with his velocity down he will learn that the location is the ticket to success. Even at 100+ big leaguers are going to hit it if it isn’t located properly. He’s going to need another pitch as well. A curveball/slider might be helpful. Until his fastball location improves and another pitch is added the his sinker will not be an effective pitch. As hitters have shown recently, they’ll just wait for the fastball and ignore everything else.

And, what has happened to Tanner Scott? Another 3.5+ years of this. Yikes.

Major pluses in the BP so far has been Dreyer and Casparius. Both have been effective when called upon. Especially, Casparius, who has eaten up some major innings when needed.

Chris Stratton. His name sounded familiar. Yep. He was the former #1 draft pick by the Giants in 2012. Another warm body that makes a couple of appearances and then is DFA’d. The BP is being held together with spit and DFAers.

We’ll need to wait until July or so to see which of the current infirmed pitchers could be available for the end of the season. Those that do return to action will definitely be “fresh” for the postseason.

Is Shohei Ohtani ever going to take the mound this season? I know it’s difficult for him to work on his pitching while being the best hitter in baseball. I’m sure the Dodgers were aware of this before the season started. We were told that expect him to be part of the staff in late April. Now it’s hopefully by the All Star break. Maybe, his shoulder surgery in the offseason caused them to change plans?

Will Muncy and Conforto be contributing offensively by the All Star break?

AF’s moves in the offseason were to put the Dodgers in a position where a major trade would not be necessary. With all the pitching injuries that strategy may have not worked.
Let’s hope the injured do return and remain healthy for the remainder of the season.

Carry on.

Last edited 21 days ago by tedraymond
Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

No lack of candidates for scapegoat.

philjones
philjones
21 days ago

Oh, where are Treinen, Kopeck, Phillips and Graterol? This current bullpen group shit the bed again.
Kershaw had dick, for the most part, but the man competes. He finds a way. It’s a shame the pen coughs up a hair ball in this one.
Ever see so many outfield assists in one game? Pages may run some interesting routes at times, or did, but he can flat throw the baseball. He has become an asset in the outfield.  

Last edited 21 days ago by philjones
Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

The Angels re-signed Shaun Anderson to a minor league deal. The Giants are moving Doval back to the pen to be their closer. The Rangers signed two former Dodgers, Billy McKinney and Alan Trejo to minor league deals. White Sox released relief pitcher, Dan Altavilla. Altavilla pitched well at AAA Charlotte. He averaged 96.1 on his heater, and his hard-hit rate was just 24.6%. The Royals released infielder Nelson Velazquez. Feyereisen elected free agency after being DFAd by LA. OF Jose Azocar elected free agency after being outrighted by the Mets. The Cubs signed reliever, Genisis Cabrera to a major league deal. He had been released by the Mets.

Marcus
Marcus
20 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

Not sure what the exit velos were on those three ground balls Scott gave up in the 8th. To my eye all three could’ve or maybe should’ve been outs. If we had a real 3B and a real SS that is. Muncy’s was an easy play and should have been scored an error. Mookie seemed way over shifted on both of the other grounders that got through.

tedraymond
tedraymond
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

Having never looked at his stats I’m surprised that AF made that kind of commitment to Scott. As I mentioned above…we have another 3.5 years of Scott.

Scott Andes
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

Or maybe these guys are just not that good?

If we are talking about scapegoats here, and I don’t think anyone is scapegoating specifically, can we also talk about excuses and overrating guys who are not producing? or putting up poor results?

Last edited 21 days ago by Scott Andes
Scott Andes
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

I didn’t specifically mean you of course, or anyone over here.

Then maybe the same thing is happening this year, and we’ll all end up being happy?

Scott Andes
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

Totally understand Jeff, and agree.

I never shy away from such topics.

Bluto
Bluto
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

what is the difference between being a starter for five innings and a reliever for five innings? Is it just the first inning? I mean, in terms of usage, pitch tunneling , mentality…

bluto
bluto
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

wait. last night it was 1 inning for wrobo or 5?

philjones
philjones
21 days ago

Jeff, I hope you got some well deserved R&R at Tahoe. I spent lots of time there when I lived in Sacramento and San Francisco. A buddy had a big house on No Shore and we played lots of golf at all of the courses and enjoyed skiing in the winter. I had great times at Heavenly Valley.
It’s a beautiful area.

Last edited 21 days ago by philjones
philjones
philjones
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

😎

Singing the Blue
Singing the Blue
21 days ago

We’ve just acquired reliever Alexis Diaz (brother of the Mets closer) from the Reds for last year’s 13th round pick, Mike Vallani.

Diaz was good at one time but has been pretty awful for the past couple of years. Dodgers are sending him to OKC for the time being. He still has 3 option years left.

Phillips moved to the 60-day IL to make room for Diaz on the 40-man.

Last edited 21 days ago by Singing the Blue
tedraymond
tedraymond
21 days ago

Thanks for the update STB. I have a bad feeling that we won’t be seeing Evan Phillips for the rest of 2025. It’s a damn shame as he was one their most reliable relivers. I hope I’m wrong.

Singing the Blue
Singing the Blue
21 days ago
Reply to  tedraymond

I have a worse feeling that we won’t see him for most of next year either, Phil. I have a hunch that there is surgery in Evan’s future.

Singing the Blue
Singing the Blue
21 days ago

Sorry, Ted not Phil.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Dodgers just acquired RHRP Alexis Diaz from the Reds for minor leaguer, Mike Villani. Phillips moved to the 60-day IL. Diaz most likely on his way to OKC. Diaz is Edwin Diaz little brother.

Last edited 21 days ago by Michael Norris
Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

2.5 years of control too. He will cost them 6.2 million in salary. His 2.95 mil plus the 110% tax, comes to 6.25 mil.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Tough task for Dodgers tomorrow, Fried vs Gonsolin. Fried is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA. He has only given up 3 homers. He has struck out 90 in 72.2 innings. His WHIP is 0.93. On Apple + again. All three games on national television.

Dionysus
Dionysus
21 days ago
Reply to  Michael Norris

I thought he was an overpay. Oops!

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Dominique

Lately? Not much. They need their slug it seems. I would settle for stringing together a bunch of hits. Only Teo, Freddie, Smith and Kim are hitting over .300. Ohtani in the .290’s, but man he chases some really bad pitches.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Mike Sirota placed on the 7-day IL at Great Lakes.

Singing the Blue
Singing the Blue
21 days ago
Reply to  Michael Norris

Did the announcement mention what the injury was?

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

No, it sure did not STB.

Bklyn2LA57
Bklyn2LA57
21 days ago

Lake Tahoe is a special place for me. My mother’s ashes were spread in the lake 10 years ago. She loved that place; lived in Stateline for years working at Caesar’s Palace. She was there when that maniac blew up Harvey’s Casino in 1980.

Dodgers will be fine. Summer weather always seems to straighten them out!

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Miller through 4.1 innings, 3 Ks, 1 BB, no runs. OKC leads 6-0 over Vegas. Outman 2-2 with a homer and a double and 3 runs scored. Ward hit his 10th homer too.

Dionysus
Dionysus
21 days ago
Reply to  Michael Norris

Very nice. Feeling optimistic with Sheehan & Henriquez ramping up.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago
Reply to  Dionysus

He did not allow a run and walked only 1, definite improvement from last time. Kopech pitched 1/3rd of an inning giving up 1 hit and striking out 1. OKC up 9-3 in the bottom of the 9th. Little is now pitching. Game over, Miller got the win and dropped his ERA under 4.

Last edited 21 days ago by Michael Norris
Cassidy
Cassidy
21 days ago

Scapegoats? We’re talking like we’re the Baltimore Orioles. Oh my goodness. We may only get 102 wins and not 112. Disaster!

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Bobby Miller pitched 5.2 scoreless innings against Las Vegas. He gave up 2 hits and walked just 1. Ryan Ward hit 3 homers, and James Outman 1. Angels are activating Mike Trout tomorrow.

Michael Norris
Editor
21 days ago

Royals released Hunter Renfroe

Duke Not Snider
Duke Not Snider
20 days ago

Gratifying come-from-behind win today. Especially gratifying against the Yankees after Gonsolin gave up four homers in the first three innings…
But then:
–Gonsolin somehow settled down, giving up zero runs in innings 4,5,6. And he ended up with the win.
— Shohei would not let Judge show him up in LA. With two more bombs, Shohei is on place for more than 60 HRs.
–Clutch hitting from Freddie, Pages, Smith, etc. All coming through while Mookie deals with a stubbed toe.
And now for some thoughts on perfecting the Dodgers roster….
The Max/Kike platoon is fine, especially with both wearing their corrective lenses. Max won’t win a gold glove, but lately he is being faulted for failing to turn an out on a bad hop grounder. Note that he did not botch a routine play. Note that the official scorekeeper didn’t give him an error. As for offense, Max has hit to a .809 OPS vs RHP this season, while Kike has hit to a .783 OPS against lefties. (When Max entered the game today, Boone ordered the intentional walk.)
Conforto has not been fine. Both Ryan Ward and Outman–who like Conforto bat lefty–are playing well in OKC, and several alternatives will become available on the trade market.
The trade deadline isn’t until July 31, so Conforto probably has a few weeks to prove that his contract wasn’t a $17-million mistake.

Badger
Badger
20 days ago

Yes, great comeback win. Sure felt like a mismatch early with Fried on the mound and Gonsolin giving up bombs. 5 earned in 6 and he got the win. Shows what can happen when you score 8. Even Conforto contributed.

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