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Why an LAD Trade Will Be Difficult (IMO)

It takes two teams wanting to make a specific trade to get it done.  I know, thank you Captain Obvious. The Dodgers wanted Devin Williams, and have for a while.  Apparently the Dodgers did not have what Milwaukee was looking for.  Milwaukee was looking for a LHSP.  The only one they had in their system who was MLB ready was Alan Ashby.  But he is being pushed to the bullpen, where he was much more effective.

They also wanted a good fielding utility infielder.  Milwaukee covets defense very much.

Thus they received 30 year old LHSP, Nestor Cortes, and 25 year old 2B/SS/3B/CF   Caleb Durbin, who has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career, and with a > .800 OPS the last two years.  He is an overachiever.  Why not continue this trend at the MLB level?

Other than Blake Snell, the only MLB ready LHSP the Dodgers have is Justin Wrobleski.  The Dodgers do not have a MLB ready infielder in their MiLB system, including Alex Freeland.  He may be by the end of the season, but he is not now.

If the Dodgers do not sign Teoscar Hernández, they will be primarily looking at Michael Conforto/Tommy Edman/Andy Pages with James Outman and Chris Taylor in reserve.  If they do not sign Teo, there is virtually no chance they sign Anthony Santander, who wants 5 years.  Jurickson Profar and Harrison Bader are the only two remaining free agent OF.  Either are possible but unlikely.

If no FA, then AF/BG has to look at trades to improve his OF.  That is if they believe they need to.  They may be very happy with what they have.

Which other team’s potential OF do the Dodgers match up with?  Who are the LAD trade candidates?:  2B Gavin Lux, reserve OF James Outman, MiLB prospect Dalton Rushing, a back of the rotation RHP: Landon Knack or Ben Casparius, a back of the rotation LHSP Justin Wrobleski, and number of depth MiLB prospects.  I do not include Alex Freeland in this because if he is traded, LAD has no other SS close to MLB.  Unless LAD gets an equivalent SS in return, Freeland is not going to be traded.

Of course many of the above could be coveted by certain teams, but is there enough to get a star OF?

One other consideration that many fans may not want to hear is that IMO, the Dodgers are reaching their budgetary cap.  I see no eagerness from AF/BG to rumors for players with large salaries.  Again, large is a relative term.  What is large for LAD?  I honestly have no clue.

With $335MM committed payroll, and still a need to sign Clayton Kershaw, they have to be very close.

Now that Kyle Tucker has been traded, who has the OF that LAD may be interested and who may be available.

CWS – Luis Robert Jr. – $15MM actual salary with an $8.33 AAV for 2025, and two club options for $20MM each, with a $2MM buyout.  This certainly falls within the LAD AAV comfort levels, and Robert Jr is a quality talent (WHEN HEALTHY).  With three years of more than reasonable financial impact, he will draw a lot of interest IF (BIG IF), CWS looks to trade him.  Chris Getz is not stupid, and he knows that Robert Jr’s value is near bottom right now.  It absolutely behooves CWS to hold onto Robert Jr until the trade deadline hoping that he has a big bounce back season, which he is capable of.

In the Garrett Crochet trade, they picked up a top C prospect in Kyle Teel.  Teel also has 29 games with OF experience compared to Rushing’s 31.  CWS now has two top 60 catching prospects.  Rushing is probably no longer on the CWS short list.

Gavin Lux? Lux has 2 years of control.  CWS is not close to being a contender, and has virtually no chance of being a contender for 2026, and therefore Lux would be of no interest to CWS.

CWS also picked up top 100 OF Braden Montgomery.  He was Boston’s first round pick (12th overall) last year.  He is the #5 top prospect in CWS system even without playing a game in MiLB.  He broke his ankle in the College World Series last year.  He can absolutely mash as his 27 HRs in 295 PA at College Station (Texas A&M) can attest.  Texas A&M is in the dominant NCAA conference, SEC.  His slash line was .322/.454/.733/1.073.

I do think CWS would be interested in Josue De Paula, but I do not think LAD will do it. CWS might also be interested in a pitcher like Bobby Miller.  But, like Robert Jr being near the bottom of his trade value, so is Bobby Miller. I think LAD wants to hold onto him to see if he can recover from last year.  If he can, he is a top of the rotation talent, and will be much more valuable to LAD and any potential team he could be traded to.

I know there is no such thing as an untouchable prospect, but for me Alex Freeland and Jackson Ferris come darn close.  Freeland because he is the only SS (infield) prospect who is anywhere close to be MLB ready, and Ferris because he has a chance to be a elite LHSP at the MLB level.  I want to see Blake Snell take him under his wing and run with it.

CHC – Seiya Suzuki – IMO, the Dodgers prefer Suzuki to Cody Bellinger.  I think Bellinger makes too much sense for NYY, but they are not interested unless the Cubs increase their cash inclusion to more than $7MM.  The Dodgers can certainly match prospects with NYY, but I do not think they are willing to spend the $$$ either.

Suzuki has 2 years remaining on his contract at $17MM AAV.  He really has no place to play in Chicago whether Bellinger is traded or not.  Kyle Tucker just took over his RF position. He is not going to sit on the bench. He says no to being a full time DH.  What do the Cubs need?  What is the value to LAD for two years of Suzuki?

One player the Cubs could actually use is Chris Taylor.  Nico Hoerner had flexor tendon surgery on his right elbow on October 11.  After moving Isaac Paredes in the Tucker trade, top prospect Matt Shaw is penciled in to play 3B.  Taylor would be a nice fit for the Cubs.  Then again CHC may not agree.  They do have prospect James Triantos who can fill in before Hoerner is ready., and they would not need to pay CT3’s salary.

The Cubs do not need  another top catching prospect.  Moises Ballesteros, the Cubs top catching prospect, had a good year at AAA at 21 and is 2 years younger than Rushing.  The Cubs have two top 100 OF prospects already on their 40 man.   They could use infielder prospects, but so can the Dodgers.  And now that the Cubs signed catcher Carson Kelly for two years, there is even less reason the Cubs would covet Dalton Rushing.

One other wrinkle is that Roki Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, is also the agent for Suzuki and Shota Imanaga.  They may want to hold onto Suzuki until Sasaki signs.  IMO, Suzuki is going to be traded, and LAD could use him.  Can they come up with players that will interest CHC?

I imagine the Dodgers know which OF are most likely to be traded.  For those that it would take an overpay, I am not sure the Dodgers have the elite talent to make something happen.

The Dodgers do need to move Dalton Rushing.  He is not going to be an everyday catcher for the Dodgers, and if the Dodgers are going to add an OF to their 40 man, I would think it would be Ryan Ward who is a more likely candidate for a reserve OF spot.

Diego Cartaya and Ryan Ward are two prospects who have withered on the vine as potential trade values.  Ryan Ward was passed up on the Rule 5 draft…again.  Just how coveted can he be?  They were able to steal Max Scherzer and Trea Turner using two prospects who did not wither on the prospect vine, but have not been household names:  catcher Keibert Ruiz and RHP Josiah Gray.  They were able to max out their value.  Is Dalton Rushing going to be a Keibert Ruiz (good return) or Diego Cartaya (trade bust).

The AAA roster includes Rushing, Ward, Freeland, Kody Hoese, Austin Gauthier, Andre Lipcius, and the new OF hero, John Rhodes.

Outside of Rushing and Freeland, there is no real MLB ready position player talent at AAA.

AA roster position players also do not have much trade value.  The one AA player on the  LAD 30 man top prospect is defense first SS, Noah Miller (#25 prospect).

  • Catchers – Carlos Avila, Yeiner Fernandez (more 2B now), Griffin Lockwood-Powell (more 1B now).
  • INF – Aaron Bracho, José Izarra, Noah Miller, Taylor Young
  • OF – Bubba Alleyne, Damon Keith, Chris Newell, José Ramos

Which of these players describes anything other than AAAA, if that?

So the Dodgers have 2 position players at AA or AAA that could merit MLB regular status in a trade scenario.

It is hard for Rookie League and A players not in the top 100 to be headliners in a trade.  The one other LAD position player prospect in the top 100 is Josue De Paula.  But even he will need to be packaged to balance values.

The Dodgers have 4 top 12 pitching prospects in their top 30:

  • LHSP Jackson Ferris (#4) – He does have value, but IMO should not be traded.
  • RHSP River Ryan (#5) – Will be out all year, and will turn 27 when he pitches again.
  • LHP Justin Wrobleski (#6) – Has value but not as a headliner.
  • RHP Nick Frasso (#12) – He is going to need to prove he is healthy for him to have any significant trade value.

Ferris grades out at 55 FV, while the other 3 grade out at 50 FV.

Dustin May has 1 year control, while Tony Gonsolin has 2.  Right now, Gonsolin figures to be in the rotation, and May in the bullpen. Both pitchers need to show they are healthy before they are considered significant trade options.

The Dodgers most tradeable position player is Gavin Lux.  Lux has tried LF, CF, 3B, and SS, and all with very little (if any) success.  He really is a one-position player (2B).  I went searching for a team that might be a fit for Lux.  There really are less than a handful of teams that would consider Lux an upgrade, or someone they would be willing to block one of their own team’s top 2B prospects.

CWS – Lenyn Sosa – I explained above why I do not believe CWS would want Lux.

Cleveland – Angel Martinez – Lux would be an upgrade for sure, and blocking Martinez would not be a factor.  But neither Lane Thomas nor Will Brennan offer any kind of OF upgrade, and I do not believe Cleveland has any thoughts on trading Steven Kwan.

Seattle – Ryan Bliss – Lux would be an upgrade, but Seattle is not looking to trade any of their OF, but could part with a pitcher.  I see no benefit of trading Lux for a luxury and not a necessity.

Miami – Otto Lopez – I am not sure that Lux is an improvement over Lopez.  Lopez does not have any power, but also only has a 17.3% K rate.  Lopez is an excellent defensive 2B.

Other 2B include:

Zack Gelof – A’s

Jackson Holliday – Baltimore

David Hamilton – Boston

Colt Keith – Detroit

Jose Altuve – Houston

Jonathan India – KC

Luis Rengifo – LAA

Brooks Lee – Minnesota

Jazz Chisholm – NYY

Brandon Lowe – Tampa Bay

Marcus Semien – Texas

Andres Gimenez – Toronto

Ketel Marte – Arizona

Ozzie Albies – Atlanta

Nico Hoerner – Cubs

Matt McLain – Cincinnati

Thairo Estrada – Colorado

Brice Turang – Milwaukee

Jeff McNeil – NYM

Bryson Stott – Philadelphia

Nick Gonzalez – Pittsburgh

Jake Cronenworth – San Diego

Tyler Fitzgerald – San Francisco

Brendon Donovan – St. Louis

Luis Garcia Jr. – Washington

Apparently, the Dodgers did try to package Lux in a potential Devin Williams trade, and apparently Milwaukee was not interested.  They seemed to prefer the younger and way more versatile Caleb Durbin.

 

I still do not believe the Dodgers will go 4 years and around $60MM for a reliever, even one as gifted asLHRP  Tanner Scott.  AF just does not do that.  But as long as Tanner Scott is still available I will never say never.

Please let me know what trade scenarios you think are possible.  It needs to be an upgrade.

Remember, James Outman is a 4th/5th OF.  Hunter Feduccia is a AAA catcher at the age of 28.  Ryan Ward was just passed over in Rule 5.  Bobby Miller needs to prove he can handle the mental part of pitching at the MLB level.  Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Nick Frasso need to prove they are healthy enough to pitch.

I may disagree with proposed trades, but no proposal is silly or a joke, unless you advise us that is what it is.

And please feel free to disagree with my assessment, but if you do, please say why.

 

 

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OhioDodger

Coutesy of Dodgers Nation

Carlson, 26, was selected in the second round of the 2017 MLB Draft by the Seattle Mariners. The right-handed was with Seattle until 2023, but didn’t pitch from 2018 to 2020 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. In 2020, the minor league season was cancelled due to the pandemic.

Carlson reached High-A with the Mariners in 2023, before spending the entire 2024 season with the Brewers’ Double-A affiliate. Across 44 appearances, he had a 4.25 ERA with 51 strikeouts and 19 walks in 48.2 innings pitched.

Carlson is now joining the Dodgers organization on what is presumably a minor league deal. The 6-foot-4, 195-pounder will likely start in Double-A or potentially Triple-A as he works with the Dodgers organization to improve his game as he aims to make his MLB debut.

Over the course of his minor league career, Carlson has a 4.70 ERA across 256.1 innings pitched.

Keith

I think it was Rosenthal or maybe Steve Phillips, I was listening to the other day who had a different view on Roberts getting traded by the WS. Who ever it was felt the Sox would move him this off season because right now he still has value, it may be somewhat depressed, but felt if the Sox waited for the deadline, and Roberts doesn’t play well his value will be nil at the trade deadline. A bird in the hand.

I don’t know if the commentator is right, but it does have some logic to it. Just thought I’d throw that out there. You are right on regarding how the Dodgers don’t match up well with some of these teams, It looks like the Dodgers would have to get a third party involved if they were really interested in something.

Keith

Jeff who is Sam Carlson, have you ever heard of him before?

dodgerram

Good take on the trading options , Jeff.

Makes it even more logical to resign Teo even if it takes a little overpay.

Only trade option I really want is Robert jun. A Bobby Miller plus Outman plus a lower level prospect should not be out of the question for both teams. As you pointed out Robert jun. and Miller had disappointing season in 2024 but both have huge upside if they are right. With Outman the WS get an immediate replacement in CF.
The lower level prospect could be someone like Bruns or Kendall George.

IMHO the Dodgers should sign Tanner Scott. 4 years for 56 milllion is reasonable and it goes along perfectly with the Dodgers wide open window for a couple more WS titles in the next 3-4 years with Mookie, Shohei and FF still at the top of their respective games.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Duke Not Snider

I want Teo back, but I may want Robert more…
Yes, he is injury-prone, but he’s about 5 years younger than Teo and plays an excellent CF. (Making the Dodgers younger should be a priority.) Edman would shift to 2B, where he won a gold glove a few years back. While Mookie is learning on the job, an up-the-middle D of Smith, Edman and Robert should be s
Offensively, Teo and Robert have similar profiles–but Robert, being younger, has the higher ceiling.

Last edited 3 days ago by Duke Not Snider
Duke Not Snider

Insightful, as usual.
You’re right that the Dodgers simply couldn’t give the Brewers what they wanted for Williams. The same was true when the Dodgers lost out on Burnes to the Orioles.
I keep hoping the Dodgers will make a trade. Maybe surprise us.
A few months ago, I don’t think any of us fans were anticipating the three-way deal that brought in Edman and Kopech. A bit puzzling at first–and then simply brilliant.
current roster lineup vs righties:

Shohei DH
Mookie SS
Freddie 1B
Max 3B
Smith C
Outman RF
Conforto LF
Lux 2B
Edman CF

Against lefties, just replace Outman with Pages, and perhaps Taylor replaces Lux.

Badger

Well crap. Nobody wants Lux. Then why should we? He doesn’t project all that (1.3 WAR, 105 wRC+). A little better than average I guess. Having him at second means Mookie plays shortstop and I don’t believe the Dodgers or Mookie want that. If they did Lux wouldn’t be on the table in trade offers. Lux knows that too. Not a good situation.

Neither is the outfield.

Friedman still has work to do.

Who’s Sam Carlson?

SandyAmoros

Jeff nice write up as usual thnx. I think Suzuki is interesting. Imo are farm system has taken a step backwards doesnt seem like anyone is clamoring for our prospects. Agree with Badger on ss. Go Navy Beat Army!

Dave

Thats a pretty deep look into he trade scenarios ,must have taken alot of time. Good job and thanks!
My random thoughts @ all this;
1. I am surprised that Mookie is being named the SS, that is not easier on his body or his mind,we’ll see. Maybe he is the best available and has already agreed to move to 2nd if Freeland gets ready.
2. I think Lux has a high ceiling and plays an adequate 2b. If he was traded who would play 2b on a permanent basis? Edman? Then who plays cf? Taylor? Then who can teach him how to hit?
3. At some pt there will be too many pitchers and a team can only have so many on the 26 man roster. A team that needs pitching would be a good trade partner at the trade deadline or shortly after ST.
4. If teams have to put rule 5 players on their roster does that mean that team is desperate enough to play a AA or AAA player? Or are those players more major league ready than given credit for?
5. Signing Teo seems like a good solution, so does keeping Lux and making a trade( even for depth) .

Keith

I wonder what happened after BG made the statement, early in the off season, that the Dodgers were going to look for a long term solution at SS. If Mookie was going to be the solution why did he make the statement in the first place. Other than some supposed early interest in Adames, we haven’t seen or heard anything rumored about the SS position.

Badger

I think they wanted Adames. SF outbid them. Other than him I don’t know who might be available.

Duke Not Snider

Adames was the only top-tier SS on the market. Now the Padres are reportedly shopping Bogaerts… but it’s a tough sell.
I am not particularly worried about SS.
Last season, the Dodgers opened with Mookie at SS. After a pitch broke his hand, Rojas stepped in. Then the Dodgers brought in Edman to share the role, and he carried the chore through to the championship.
Now Mookie will be returning to SS with a full off-season to prepare.
If Mookie struggles, Edman and Rojas can step in.
And maybe Alex Freeland will progress at OKC and become part of the mix as well.

Badger

2.Mookie. Edman.

OhioDodger

I am very interested and optimistic to see what Lux can do in the 2nd year removed from his knee injury. Look at what Acuna did in his 2nd year after his first knee injury.

OhioDodger

I am just hoping Lux starts to fulfill all the hype he had as a top prospect.
Trying to remain optimistic.

Last edited 3 days ago by OhioDodger
Duke Not Snider

If Edman plays 2B, then Outman should have a shot at CF. He certainly should rate ahead of Taylor.
I don’t understand the pessimism surrounding a guy who is one season–the dreaded “sophomore jinx”–removed from an excellent rookie season in which he hit to a .790 OPS with 23 HRs and a third-place ROY finish. He is swift and a much better defender than Pages, and his career ML stats are substantially better. (Outman and Pages could form a platoon.)
As Jeff has pointed out, Outman finished the ’24 season in OKC with a flourish–an OPS over 1.000 in the last month.
This happened after his first child was born.
Dad strength?

John

I’m not a betting person but if I was I’d place a bet and be very confident that I’d win, Lux will have better offensive numbers than Edman. Lux had a rough first half last season and followed up with a great second half. I believe the real Lux was the second half because he was coming off a season where he didn’t play due to a season ending surgery in spring training. I believe we hang on to Lux and we will be happy we did.
Consequently, if we trade for Roberts and he happens to stay healthy for a change, where will Edman play. If Mookie stays at SS which he will and Lux rakes like he will, Edman is our CF.

Last edited 3 days ago by John
Cassidy

Sign Teo. Problem solved. No way AF doesn’t sign him if it’s a 3 year deal.

Cassidy

You may be right. But could get ugly defensively in 3-4 years and we don’t have a DH for him. Tho I think if someone has offered him 4 years by now that he would have taken it. Once again I think Toronto is our major competition. Just don’t get on any jets Teo.

Bobby

Rumor has it some sushi place in Toronto is reserved for tonight?

Bumsrap

Sounds good.

Badger

Sounds awful.

Do what it takes to sign him.

Bumsrap

I’m not referring to the sushi. I’m referring to Ohtani signing version 2.

Keith

If the Dodgers trade for Roberts I think Lux would be out, Edman and Mookie would be the middle infield IMO.

Bradley

Possible teams to trade with Red, Whitesox, Cardinals, Mariners Orioles, Angels, Rockies, here is why Reds Matt McClain ss, whitesoxs Robert’s Jr, Cardinals Arenaldo and Hensley outfielders a bunch, Mariners need a swcund baseman hello Lux and outman they have outfielders and probable relief pitching, Orioles centerfielder that could play every day Cedric Mullins then Edman comes in and plays second base, Angels Ward could play leftfield then Conforto in rightfield, Rockies there starting shortstop Toroz and Betts moves to second base if you could get an outfielder that would help us just didn’t know any good outfielders the Rockies have. Theres some teams to trade with that could help us and either us Lux and Outman and starting pitchers we have as bait.

Bradley

Wow Olay Cedric Mullins I a possibility becaue they have a crowded outfield in Baltimore. Arenaldos number one choice us the Dodgers and his fielding would be way better then Muncy. Toronto is an up and coming shortstop and I thought a lux outman Miller to the Rockies would get us a starting shortstop for years. And the Mariners seem to always trade and I do think they would take Lux andoitchibg because we need an outfielder that’s betteethen outman and Pages and taylor okay Jeff. Then Matt McClain is a shortstop and has to play second base and the reds have a new manager and why nit lux a veteran on a young team that’s why I picked him. Anything else Jeff we can’t have outman pages ad taylor be our options as outfielders they don’t hit so that’s why I gave suggestions for better hitters shoot uf the wanted good outfielder there’s two with the As trade outman and Pages there and get Davis and Booker at least they start fir the As. Does that’s help you wonder how I was thinking to improve the outfield if we don’t get Teoscar.

OhioDodger

I don’t get everyone’s fascination with Arenado. He is now on the downside of his career and in decline. Why would the Dodgers take on that contract. With Muncy at 3B for 2025 and possibly 2026 if he has even an average year, 3B is not the Dodgers problem or a priority to be fixed. Dodgers main focus should be on improving the outfield. Especially with Mookie moving to the infield.
It is a darn shame that Lux cannot play LF.

Last edited 3 days ago by OhioDodger
Bumsrap

I can see Arte trading with the Dodgers as he can always back out of it.

Lux, after suffering such a big injury, might want to a 6 year contract and be under contract well beyond is 2 years to becoming a free agent. Give the team he is traded to a window to get that done as a condition to the trade. That said, if trading with Seattle try to grab a pitcher.

Badger

Interesting numbers Jeff. They seem a little high to me. What is your read?

Badger

Ok, maybe not.

Bklyn2LA57

Think of that reliever line up with Scott Tanner. Lights out.

Bumsrap

I’d like to see the Dodger payroll that reflects existing contracts for the next 5 years and then I would like to see various versions of it based on who the Dodgers might sign as free agents or trade for including the extensions that might be given for those traded-for players.

I’ve always wanted Royce Lewis but getting him and not extending him doesn’t interest me so much. In a couple of years he could demand a salary of $35M+ annually and that contract could last well past his prime. How many of those type players look realistic for that projected 5+ year payroll?

My wish would be to use the Dodger player assets to get a controllable player that won’t become a free agent for 4+ years. Maybe that player is already in-house such as Freeland. Maybe that player is somebody like Jackson Hiolliday who IMHO has a high ceiling with bust potential.

Miller has high upside but also could be a bust. If I were a small market team and could get a pitcher with the physical tools Miller has, I would roll the dice on him. If I were the Dodgers, I would want to add Roki before dealing Miller. If I were the Reds and Dodgers GM, I wouldn’t give an immediate no for a Miller / Holliday trade. As a fan, I would hate for the Dodgers to trade for Holliday and then have to wait 3 years before he made the MLB team.

As an Outman fan and not as an armchair GM, I would enjoy Outman as the full time center fielder with Betts at short and Edman at second and hope Freeland could move Betts to third in 2026. That puts Pages in RF and Conforto in LF. It also makes Lux available to be included in the Miller / Holliday trade. Holliday would then be sent to AAA for the 2025 season.

One more comment. Edman has more power as a righty hitter and yet he is allowed to hit from the left side against righties. Outman has more power against righties and lacks power against lefties. If his OBP is decent against lefties and a strike out is just an out, I don’t have a problem with Outman hitting against lefties.

Last edited 3 days ago by Bumsrap
Singing the Blue

 If I were the Reds and Dodgers GM, I wouldn’t give an immediate no for a Miller / Holliday trade.”

I don’t think the Reds GM gets a vote since Holliday plays for the Orioles. That said, I would have no problem including Miller in the right trade but I think he depressed his trade value so much last year that AF would probably hope that he would have a good start to 2025 and then be a better trade piece at the deadline.

Ran a Jackson Holliday/Bobby Miller deal through the Simulator and it totally rejected it. Said I could add DePaula to make it work. And by the way, they value DePaula at more than 150% the value of Miller.

Jackson’s younger brother, Ethan, is considered a good bet to be the first choice in the 2025 draft and most people think he has even better potential than Jackson.

Bumsrap

I would add DePaula to that deal but would rather use Lux instead due to his being 2 years from free agency. Not sure why I was thinking Reds instead of Orioles re Holliday other than the Reds might be more willing to make such a deal. Or maybe in the back of my mind I had Matt McLain. I’d rather have him than Holliday.

For me Miller is a very high ceiling and mid risk player regardless of what he did in 2024. He won’t be available to another team if he pitches like his stuff says he can in 2025 so a team that needs a low cost controllable Ace might roll the dice on him now and Holliday IMHO isn’t that big of a roll.

Last edited 3 days ago by Bumsrap
Bumsrap

Out of curiosity, was Miller given the same value in the Robert trade as in the Holliday trade?

Bumsrap

I was searching the simulator for proposed trades involving Royce Lewis and he had different values in different trades.

Bumsrap

I always thought it worked the way you just stated but found this on the trade boards. I filtered for 2024 but maybe it included other years.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=Royce+lewis&page=1&posted=2024

Bumsrap

Thanks Jeff. 16 players under contract for 2025 which drops to 9 in 2026. I guess then that there are 10 players in 2025 playing as controlled players and they have about $100MM of contracted payroll in 2026 to spend before they match what they have today for 2025.

That $100MM will have to be used to fill 3rd base, LF, and Utility plus a few relievers unless those spots are filled with controllable players. Neither year includes Kershaw’s salary.

If they sign Roki in a few years he will be expensive to keep.

Duke Not Snider

A deal for Luis Robert Jr. may be unlikely, but he might be preferable to Teo for a few reasons–and that could justify an “overpay” despite his woeful performance last season.
First, Robert is five years younger than Teo.
Second, he’s a much better defender who could provide gold-glove play in CF.
Third, he’d have a more modest impact on the near-term payroll, as he is under contract through the ’27 season.
According to Spotrac, Chicago has $55 million commited to Robert over the next three seasons.
Meanwhile, there is chatter that LA could offer Teo about $75-80 million for the same three seasons.
With his injury history and subpar ’24 season, Robert may carry greater risk that Teo but potentially greater reward.
I’d push back a bit on the notion that the White Sox would have no interest in Lux. He’s a young veteran with a still modest contract. With success, he’d could bat near the top of the lineup.
To interest the White Sox, the Dodgers would have to make an attractive offer. They picked up a top catching prospect in the Crochet deal, so the Dodgers could hold on to Rushing and offer De Paula instead.
How’s this for an overpay:
–DePaula as the big prospect bat. (His best position might be a DH; the Dodgers have that spot filled.)
–Lux as the young veteran who would start immediately. (For the Dodgers, Edman would shift from CF to the middle infield.)
–Either Outman or Pages as the outfielder who would start immediately, taking Roberts’s spot in the field.
–Bobby Miller, a former first-round draft pick who struggled in ’24 but showed ace potential in ’23. (Of all these guys, I’d most want to keep Miller. I would prefer to offer Knack for Wrobleski instead.)
This would be a huge haul for Chicago–four guys from the Dodgers’ 40-man roster, three of whom would play immediately.
And it would a sizable gamble for the Dodgers.

Bluto

The Dodgers overpaying?!?!??!

The Dodgers overpaying for defense?!???!!?

Singing the Blue

Responding to your trade scenario Duke, in my opinion (which is certainly no better than yours), that isn’t an overpay, it’s an overpay on steroids.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that the Sox would say yes to that deal. I’m not entirely certain that AF would trade DePaula even up for Jr.

To show you the difference in how we look at things, I decided to run a Robert Jr for Miller (one for one) trade through the Trade Simulator which I’m the first to admit has some very strange results from time to time. The Simulator rejected my Jr-Miller trade because it said it was too one-sided…………….in favor of the White Sox.

This is what makes the off season fun. So many ideas and combinations to sort through, with everyone entitled to his/her opinion.

Trade on!

Last edited 3 days ago by Singing the Blue
Bumsrap

But have you ever been in the traffic, leaving Chicago and going toward Wisconsin? Lux would be closer to home and family but still, the traffic. Okay, give the White Sox a few days to extend Lux, and if they can, they may like that trade better.

tedraymond

Jeff, the past two articles from you have been outstanding. The first (uninspired winter meetings) seemed to cover all the relevant Dodger prospects. As thorough as you are with keeping us updated with the Dodger farm hands there were still several that I have never heard about.

The article today somewhat confirmed of what I have expressed in the past. That is the Dodger minor league system is overrated by the experts. These experts have continually rated the Dodger system in the top five for most of the past several years. This was exciting considering AF was always drafting at the bottom of the first round or not at all because of free agent signings. As time has gone on, I realized that the experts evaluation of the quality of the players and their development was highly misguided.

The Dodger prospects that were used in trades have not turned into anything special other than a couple who have become everyday players. No one who became an star. Yordan Alvarez doesn’t count being he was only with the Dodgers for a month before being traded to Houston.

Will Smith is the only above average player the team has developed by the current front office. Other position players such as Vargas and Outman have had some success and then completely failed to improve. In 2025, both Lux and Pages need to have solid seasons where they show improvement and warrant a everyday spot on the team. Even their top prospect, Rushing, looks like nothing but a position less DH. Who’s going to trade a top talent player for a damn DH with no MLB experience?

Several pitchers have had some recent success, but they all have gone under the knife at an unbelievable rate. I don’t think developing a pitcher to get to the Dodgers to pitch a few dozen innings before having a major injury can be considered a successful program. This is why they continue to add to the starting staff via free agency.

With Jeff’s excellent information above, one can conclude that many other front offices have caught on to the fact that are prospects aren’t worthy of obtaining valuable talent. The Dodgers are too slow to promote their prospects IMHO. Look at the ages of the “top prospects”. They’re either teenagers or 25-28 years old.

Like I have mentioned in the past, if AF won’t bring them up to the Dodgers, why would another team want them? I think that many of the current GM’s around the league have similar information all other teams prospects and realize what the Dodgers have to offer is substandard.

Experts be experts until they’re not. They have been overrating the Dodgers minor league system for years. And now, it is apparent that the rest of MLB baseball front offices know this too.

With an apparent unlimited budget it really doesn’t matter the quality of the minor system. They will keep filling out the team via free agency.

Carry on.

Badger

Well said Ted. And it does raise questions. The Dodgers top prospect, Dalton Rushing is a 55 catcher and is blocked. So… left field? And even he’s only 39 in the top 100. The other three on that list, Freeland, DePaula, and Ferris, are down the list and either not ready, not available or not enough to move the needle on trades.

So what to do? Move Mookie again. That will make all the difference.

I still don’t think Friedman is done. It’s a long way to Opening Day. Moves are coming.
Well said Ted. And it does raise questions. The Dodgers top prospect, Dalton Rushing is a 55 catcher and is blocked. So… left field? And even he’s only 39 in the top 100. The other two on that list, Freeland and Ferris, are down the list and either not ready, not available or not enough to move the needle on trades.

So what to do? Move Mookie again. That will make all the difference.

I still don’t think Friedman is done. It’s a long way to Opening Day. Moves are coming.

Last edited 3 days ago by Badger
Bluto

Longenhagen chat:
RAH: What role do you think Edgardo Henriquez can fill in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Non-zero shot to be the set-up guy, has to be more consistent. That kid was at an AFL game like three days after they won the ship, just wanted to be around baseball.

Szymborski chat:
Henry Dodger: Does Zips like Profar okay after his late-career breakthrough last season, or is it too fluky?

Dan Szymborski: Likes him as an OK guy, but not a star

veteran infielder: keeping Mookie at shortstop is the first major Dodgers misstep since….?

Dan Szymborski: Is it?

Fangraphs on the prospect the LAD lost in the Rule 5 draft:
4. Los Angeles Angels (39)
Garrett McDaniels, LHP, from the Los Angeles Dodgers

McDaniels works downhill with a 93-ish mph sinker, and he added a second breaking pitch in 2024…essentially trying to make the leap from High-A to the big leagues, which is tough, but from a stuff standpoint, he’s a fairly standard lefty middle reliever who fits the bill of a typical Rule 5 pick.

According to trade value simulator any of the following would be a good straight-up match for Sukuki:
Casparius
Feduccia
Gauthier
Hoese

Bobby

Funny. I’d trade all 4 for Suzuki

OhioDodger

 😃  LOL. Yep. Give’em all four if they take Taylor.

Sam Oyed

Jeff you mentioned that “With $335MM committed payroll, and still a need to sign Clayton Kershaw, they have to be very close”.

If reports are accurate that AF offered 600 million for Soto, does that suggest they can afford Scott and Teo? Frankly, it would seem that the Dodgers would be better off with both players.

not a knock on your thinking; just something I wonder about.

Last edited 3 days ago by Sam Oyed
Bklyn2LA57

“I do believe AF offered Soto $600MM, but he also knew he was never going to sign for that.” Bingo.

Did AF offer Adames anything?

Also, at some point age has to enter AF’s plan. Right now three of their infielders are 32, 34, & 35 and their back up SS is 35. If they sign Teo their OF will have two players 31 & 32. How old are most of these guys going to be at the end of their contracts?

Eric

1 If Teo doesn’t come back.
2 Ohtani is superman, he can do anything.
3 Outman is good defensively, hits RHP good and the only thing he lacks vs. LHP is power. He still has a small sample vs. LHP.
 
DH Rushing/Smith
C Smith/Rushing
1B Freeman
2B vs. RHP Lux/ vs. LHP Edman
SS Betts
3B Muncy
OF vs. RHP Ohtani(LF) Outman(CF) Conforto(RF)
OF vs. LHP Ohtani(LF) Outman(CF) Pages(RF)
Bench: Taylor pure utility, Rojas insurance IF

If you think this offense isn’t as good as last season I won’t disagree, but The Dodgers had more than enough offense last season and this is not a significant downgrade from last year.

I’m sorry for posting.

Last edited 3 days ago by Eric
Badger

Sorry? Why?

As much as I’d like to see it, I doubt the Dodgers allow Ohtani to play outfield. The Dodgers need a difference maker out there. That guy is Teo.

Eric

Hi Badger I hope you’re doing good. Why am I sorry? Because of 1 particular poster and I see he’s not been posting recently, so I though I’d sneak a post in.

I agree, but this was only if Teo doesn’t come back.

It will only be 1 year in the outfield for Ohtani. I think they would, but that’s just me. They actually don’t need Ohtani pitching and he’s not going to be pitching until later in the season if he does pitch and also the Dodgers are the favorites to land Sasaki. Even without Sasaki they don’t need Ohtani pitching.

I’ve always been a proponent for a lockdown bullpen and good hitting, it worked for The Dodgers in the playoffs. This wouldn’t be as good an offense as last season but not a significant downgrade.

I don’t know, just me.

Badger

Well, it’s a legitimate point of view Eric. I’m just not sure the Dodgers will risk anything with him. He’s safe at DH until he does start pitching.

And thanks for asking about me. I’m ok. Slowing down, that’s for sure. I’ve lost a lot of friends in the last few years, but I’ll hold on for a while longer.

Eric

Hi Jeff I hope you’re doing good.

Because of 1 particular poster and I see he’s not been posting recently, so I though I’d sneak a post in.

Last edited 3 days ago by Eric
Michael Norris

I had emergency surgery Eric, and I have no beef with you, I can only sit up for a short period of time,

Singing the Blue

Always liked Bote, but I don’t expect to see him in a Dodger uni this year except in case of a number of injuries. I expect he’ll opt out before June, assuming he has that option in his contract.

Dionysus

Taylor replacement if we cut him.

Sam Oyed

Jeff, Why didn’t AF sign Adamas. Maybe he feels Freeland shouldn’t be blocked? As for Teo; if I were him I’d be a little annoyed. He played a crucial part in getting the Dodgers to the Was and winning it. He see’s numbers like 600 million but the Dodgers won’t spend 15% of that on him. Even if the 600 million was not a good faith offer, it’s reasonable to think AF offered 50-60 million for a couple of years that pays his salary and Scott’s. Guess we’ll all see what takes place over the next few months.

Bluto

Not Jeff, but when has AF EVER traded for a player like Adames?

superstars or value. That’s it

Bluto

Traded for or signed?

dodgerram

Way too many $$$$ and years for Adames IMHO. Glad AF passed on him.
Rather give that mony to Teo and Tanner Scott.
Plus we have a few ss down the pipeline who should be ready in 3- 4 years with Morales , Vargas and our first round pick this year.
No need to block them with Adames whose defensive metrics already have regressed the last couple years.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!

Sam Oyed

Agree with you about Adames and his contract. As it stands I can’t believe the Dodgers will go with the outfield they currently have. If he doesn’t sign Teo, AF will probably make a deal that none of us remotely imagined.

Keith

I wanted Adames here, but I’m ok with whatever AF does, as far as Adames defense regressing I’m not so sure about that. 8 of his 20 errors all happened in a two week period in the middle of August, my guess is he was playing through an injury. I believe his defense will be fine.

Bradley

If the dodgers don’t get Teoscar this is what I would do. Some how get Cedric Mullins to be the every day centerfieldee then that would move Edmans to his natural postion second base. No you trade Lux Outman and Miller to the Orioles okay. Centerfield is then solved. Okay now you need a rightfieldee that can play every day or platoon with Pages so you go to the As and you ask them about about Brent Rooker and maybe another player you then tradr to them One of these starting pitchers in the minors and say Depaula or Ward to the As for Brent Rooker Okay now look at my lineup by doing that uts a more powerful lineup then keeping outman pages lux and Taylor and Barnes.
Ohtani dh
Betts ss
Freeman 1b
Muncy 3b
Rooker RF
Conforto LF
Smith C
Edmans 2b
Mullins Cf
Bench Rojas Barnes Taylor Pages.

Bluto

Bote had more major league WAR in 46 ABs then Chris Taylor had all season. This does scream to be a typical AF signing.

Latest Rosenthal piece has info on Buehler (sorry, no link) and some interesting stuff in the Brewers IF.

per Heyman:
Still a $ gap in Bellinger trade talk with Yankees and Cubs as of this minute. It’s a matter of “who blinks first,” if ever. Still could happen but Yanks also considering Alonso, Walker, C. Santana, J. Naylor, N. Lowe, probably others.

Perhaps Suzuki still is possible? The Cubs know he doesn’t want to DH. A possible problem? He’s not a very good fielder.

a reason the dodgers may be bullish?
There are four hitters currently in the 85th percentile or better for HH% & sprint speed.

Bobby Witt Jr.
Fernando Tatís Jr.
Gunnar Henderson
Jordan Westburg

If you lower it to 80th percentile, you can add Matt Chapman, Jose Siri, Seiya Suzuki, Elly De La Cruz, & Matt Vierling.

oh, BTW, Young Frankenstein is 50 years old today.
The fact that both Young Frankenstein and Blazing Saddles were released in 1974 is incredible. In 50 more years this’ll still be funny.

Last edited 2 days ago by Bluto
Keith

“What big Knockers”😀

Bumsrap

I don’t relish the thought of the Dodgers facing Buehler in a playoff game.

Keith

You think he might have a little extra motivation.

Bumsrap

He doesn’t need it during the playoffs

Wally Moonshot

Something I haven’t seen much discussion about is what happens if Ohtani blows his arm out again pitching? The Dodgers then not only lose a pitcher but their best hitter and baserunner. I think letting him pitch beyond 2025 is a real gamble. Would they consider moving him full time to first base in ‘26 and letting Freddie be the DH? I’m not trying to be glass half empty, but with the Dodger pitching curse, it could happen.

Last edited 2 days ago by Wally Moonshot
Singing the Blue

Ohtani has stated he wants to pitch and I’m sure that was discussed when he decided to sign with the Dodgers. He wouldn’t have signed with a team that didn’t agree to let him be a 2-way player.

If your scenario happens and he blows his arm out, they would lose him for a year but he should still be able to hit when he returns. I’m sure that’s a gamble AF is willing to take.

If, for some reason, he would eventually have to give up pitching, I think the more likely scenario is to put him in the outfield, rather than move Freddie off of first base.

Last edited 2 days ago by Singing the Blue
Bluto

What if Mookie blows out his knee?
What if Freeman gets hit by a pitch and can’t play again?

I understand Ohtani is coming off arm surgery by the best arm surgeons.

Trust expertise.

Don’t fear the unexpected.

Eric

Just some thoughts.

Why are some people saying Rushing is blocked?
Catchers wear down towards the end of the season, we’ve seen it with Smith. Another potential good hitting catcher (Rushing) can give Smith a lot more days off.

Why should Edman be given an everyday job?
He has enough at bats against RHP to brand him a platoon player, just like Lux and Conforto are platoon players. Lux and Edman would make a great platoon if Lux is kept. Conforto and Pages would make for a great platoon although Pages doesn’t have enough at bats against RHP to brand him as a platoon player, same goes for Outman against LHP.

Last edited 2 days ago by Eric
Farhan Friedman

I would assume it means Rushing is blocked from advancement in the Dodgers system due to Will Smith being the primary catcher, with 9 years left on his contract.

OhioDodger

I am still holding out hope the Dodgers can get a deal done with Teo. Just give him the 3rd year and get it done. I am also hoping AF can work out a deal to get Suzuki and unload Taylor. Than resign Kike. Also get Sasaki. I am not very optimistic about Buehler coming back. I would like to get him on a one year deal with team options for a 2nd and 3rd year.

Michael Norris

Hey guys, able to sit up a little and check out the site. I am still pretty immobile need to elevate my ankle most of the day. I see the doctor on Friday to get my stitches out.

Bradley

Says in the Athletic Dodgers in talks with Nolan Arenaldo in trade talks and also keeping Muncy to play second base taht must be the backup plan if they don’t get teoscar back. To go after Nolan for his power in the middle of the lineup. Have to replace that power if Teoscar goes some where else.
Ohtani dh
Betts rf
Freeman 1b
Arenaldo 3b
Muncy. 2b
Smith C
Edman / Pages cf
Conforto / outman lf
Rojas ss
Bench taylor, Barnes, lux,

Singing the Blue

Arenado only had 16 homers in almost 600 at bats last year. He’s no longer a power factor or cleanup hitter.

Bumsrap

MLB Network had a story on Arenado’s off season workouts and “they” predicted a big bounce back for Arenado.

Bluto

I don’t think this is in the Athletic.

Badger

I didn’t see it.

Ron Fairly fan

It was fansided or the sporting news a couple of weeks ago. Everything lately is saying no interest in Arenado. He’s too expensive for the production he supplies. Also his contract will be double with the CBT

Bluto

Speaking of reports without basis, has anyone here read that the Dodgers offer for Devin Williams was: Lux and Feduccia?

I’ve seen it only in comments.

Singing the Blue

Feduccia and Ryan Ward are two examples of why most high school and college guys with no hope of being All Star talents in MLB are praying they don’t get drafted by the Dodger organization.

Bluto

Care to explain?

Singing the Blue

They are admittedly fringe major leaguers but being in the Dodger organization gives them almost no chance of seeing any significant time in the big leagues until they become minor league free agents.

If they had been drafted by Oakland, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, etc. the odds are much higher that they would have been given at least some chance to crack the MLB roster by now.

Bluto

Totally false.

Feduccia is an 8th round pick. There aren’t even 8 rounds anymore. It’s solely because of the Dodgers development system that he has reached the heights he has.

Feduccia has a real chance at qualifying for an MLB pension, he should be thanking his stars and garters he was drafted by the Dodgers and not Oakland or Pittsburgh.

Come on!

Ward was also an 8th round pick, but he’s farther from MLB time than Hunter is.

Singing the Blue

Feduccia was drafted 6 years ago and his last 2 seasons at OKC were very good. Yet he faces the prospect of spending another year there.

If he were in the A’s or Pirates organization, he would have been on the MLB roster already, at the minimum as their second string catcher.

We obviously look at this differently. So be it. I don’t believe that being in the Dodgers system made the difference that you think it did.

Bluto

The problem with good organizations is that they are good for most people (or prospects.)

The problem with bad organizations is that they develop most prospects poorly.

A rising tide lifts all boats, which means a lot of boats are lifted.

Badger

If I may jump in here, seems to me great organizations have a lot of money. Those lesser boats may be lifted, but they are smaller boats.

Bluto

The Rays are a great organization, Milwaukee, KC seems to have their act in order.

Cleveland?

Last edited 1 day ago by Bluto
tedraymond

I believe there are 20 rounds currently in the MLB draft. When Feduccia and Ward were drafted there were 40 rounds.

You may have been thinking of the NFL draft where there are only 7 rounds.

How do you know it’s solely on the Dodger development that
Feduccia and Ward are reached the “heights” that they have?
An opinion, yes. A fact, no.

Feduccia could and should be playing for a major league team right now IMHO.

With Ward, who knows. He could be a career AAAA player. With his power profile shouldn’t be given an opportunity to play for a MLB team? Obviously, the Dodgers don’t think so.
Maybe, the 29 other teams feel the same way.

If I was a position HS or college player I wouldn’t be anxious to sign with them knowing the chances of actually playing for them are almost nil If a pitcher, that would be a different story.

Bluto

How do I know if the Dodger have a good developmental program?

is this a joke?

because the people who evaluate such programs say they do, as do the people who run rival developmental programs.

this is not really up for debate, is it?

if Feduccia should be playing for a team, why isn’t he? You think the Dodgers are turning down multiple offers for him?

Last edited 1 day ago by Bluto
Sam Oyed

Freddie Freeman’s walkoff grand slam ball from Game 1 of the World Series has sold for $1.56 million at auction. I am not the purchaser.

Last edited 2 days ago by Sam Oyed
OhioDodger

Just ran across this tidbit. I can’t believe the Dodgers won’t top this offer.

https://www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-predicted-to-lose-teoscar-hernandez-on-66-million-deal-to-nl-squad-01jf5jyd4m6s

Bluto

I can’t believe anyone thinks that this “offer” is real.

In Kerry Miller’s recent column for Bleacher Report, Hernández is headed to the Cincinnati Reds on a three-year, $66 million deal.

LOL.

Last edited 2 days ago by Bluto
OhioDodger

It sounds like someones prediction.

Last edited 2 days ago by OhioDodger
Cassidy

Roberts just quoted that Dodgers and Teo Hernandez are close. Bring him home AF!

Bklyn2LA57

Just read that as well. Roberts wouldn’t say that if not true.

Bumsrap

Maybe another day-to-day comment like he makes just before someone goes on the IL.

Badger

I heard what I consider a great idea this morning. It comes from a source many of you don’t particularly care for so I’ll leave that out.

Clearly MLB has a problem with the best teams not advancing to the World Series. Winning your Division, which is what ALL teams aim for, means very little in the playoffs.

So, how about this: win your Division and you get 1 win going into the first round of the playoffs.

Dodgerfan

I’ll just answer this for everyone BS.

OhioDodger

Agree. The solution is to eliminate 2 wild card teams. Then the team with the best record gets the #1 seed and plays the team with the 4th best record or the #4 seed regardless if that is a division winner or wild card team. That eliminates the wild card playoff 3 game series and the long layoff for the top 2 teams. I know, it will never happen because of the money involved with having more playoff games. So we just have to wait until MLB expands to 32 teams.

Keith

They are not going to eliminate WC teams, in fact during the last CBA the owners wanted four more WC teams, the union negotiated two, so you can expect two more WC teams, than is current, after the next CBA negotiation. There is just too much money involved in playoff TV.

OhioDodger

Yep, that is what I said.
 🤔 

Last edited 1 day ago by OhioDodger
Wally Moonshot

So when it comes to playoffs, are you saying the owners and Manfred don’t have the best interests of the game in mind? I’m shocked— SHOCKED!

Bklyn2LA57

What needs to happen is rebracketing after the first round. This past postseason the #1 Dodgers played #4 SD while #2 Phillies played #6 Mets. Should have been #1 LA vs #6 Mets; #2 Phillies vs #4 SD.

Keith

I agree with you bklyn, reseeding would be a step in the right direction. If you are a number one seed, and can’t beet number six, you have to take some of that responsibility on yourself.

Last edited 1 day ago by Keith
Wally Moonshot

Seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it.

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